Preliminary COVID-19 Vaccine Data

If you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and be sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. All right, you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. We had a bunch of headlines with the US new cases topping eighty nine thousand, setting a daily record. We know global infections are surpassing forty five million, and we are seeing really Europe grappling to control of renewed surge in the disease.

This as we continue to see work done and moving forward on a vaccine. Let's get to our weekly chat. I love this with Dr Ian lost bead Or, Clinical Associate Professor of Medicine at n y U Landgo Medical Center. He joins us once again on the phone in New York. Dr les Bader. Nice to have you here, Ian, How are you very well? Thanks Carol, Happy Friday, and definitely green is good, so up and away would be is always good. How are you doing. I'm doing okay. I

think it's been a jem packed week. We're getting ready for another one on the news front because of the election. But we're also I think there's safe to say, a new round of stress as we start to see are we continue to see that these you know, virus case cases hospitalizations rise around the country, around the world. I mean we're well into what the second wave here or at least the beginning of it in the US. Yeah, definitely, you know we are as we've said before on the show.

You know, we we've seen these waves with other pandemics. This is not the first or the last pandemical see. Unfortunately, you know, humans also for from recency bias. We're always fighting the last war, and candidly we were in globally, I think unprepared and I think we've tried to aggressively pursue that the vaccines are coming. The preliminary data that I've seen look very good. You know, with antibuddy tigers,

we talked about that last week. Levels that that that are actually higher and seem to last longer than in people who actually have the disease. Now, you know, will every vaccine do this and will people need more than one vaccine? Possibly? Um, And we've certainly spent a lot of capital, time and energy and billions of dollars on that, But it's so unusual to be able to get a vaccine in under a year. Usually this takes a long time. So I think, um, we were really unprepared. Humans are

always fighting the last war. But I think we've responded well. And in any war, you know, there are winners and losers, and certainly a lot of companies are are getting a lot of money and hopefully it will be worth it. You know, it's interesting we had a conversation. The cover story of Bloomberg business Week magazine is all about Operation Warp Speed and and particularly one company that's really involved in terms of the logistics of getting getting this out.

But what's interesting is we had some discussions in about you know, normally when there's a drug development, we don't hear about all the testing. We don't hear about the setbacks,

which is a normal part of right creating. You know, a vaccine if you will, or or or a treatment that has to go through all the phase trials of testing, so you know, in some ways there's a lot of transparency on this process, which is great, right, but it also maybe ups the anxiety about whether or not do I want to take this vaccine because it's happening so fast and there's been setbacks. But that's I mean, it's not dissimilar to something that often takes a lot longer

for That's definitely true. You know, the data I've seen not not to push a vaccine or another. The data that I've seen is carefully done studies, and certainly the clinical studies and phase three studies are not being rushed. They're accumulating patients, they're doing very careful follow up and

blood testing. So my sense is that that these um UH these studies are being done very carefully, and I certainly would feel comfortable based on what I'm seeing, to the early in line or even joined to study UH to see how effective it is. But I'm encouraged, and I think we we don't have a lot of other options. Either we succumb to shutdowns and and UH slowing economy and and and higher death rate, or we sort of step up to the plate we've talked about last week,

and we can talk against some individual responsibility. What can we do individually while we're waiting, we can talk about that if you wish well talk a little bit about that, because I do think that's important. You know, we we kid, we joke, but we it's not a joke. You know. The whole idea of social distancing and wearing masks. I mean, there are things that you can do that make a significant impact, no question about it. I just had a patient.

There are several patients actually who have come in for follow ups, and we're talking about flu shots and encouraging people to get flu shots. And there are actually rumors on the internet that the flu shot UM increases your risk of COVID nineteen, which is completely untrue. Uh. They're referring to a study uh previously about flu shots and

they actually helped protect against several other viruses. Interestingly enough RSV and other viruses UM, but for some other coronaviruses, non COVID nineteen viruses, there was a slight increased incidence of them. They're basically like common cold viruses. Other coronaviruses, and some people you know, seem to think that that was increased risk, but in fact that's not so. I think we need to educate people. I think we need to reassure people because, as you say, this is a

very dynamic time. You know. The good news is uh, uh that it really is a less than five percent death rate. It's about globally about three percent, and various countries are higher or lower. Uh. So it's a nine you know, survival rate. And again, how do we focus on that three so, you know, lose weight, get your blood sugars under control, where a mask, do social distancing, hand washing. Uh. There are individual things that we can do.

And passing wars, you know, global wars. Everybody participated there. There should not be this you're on one side or I'm on the other. Dr lesbid I thought what was interesting Charlie and his report talking about uh from the team over at Johns Hopkins. This whole idea of kind of what worked over the summer doesn't work now. I mean the conditions have changed, especially as it gets colder, we're inside more. Um, there's gatherings and let's kind of

throw on top of it. Pandemic fatigue. Yeah, exactly, you're you're both of you are quite right that as it gets colder, it's much harder for people to eat outdoors or socialize outdoors. Uh, And there is pandemic fatigue to some degree in retrospect. I believe it was actually Jeff Gunblack who said, I think back in February, let's just close the country down for four weeks. That might have made a big difference. But people were in certainly in New York City for for several months, and there were

really emotional and psychologic consequences, not to mention economic. And I think that's the difference between Asia or certain parts of Asia. If we can believe those numbers where you can lock down a city of forty million, say no one and no one out, very tough to do that in free societies and and open societies. So we're back to simpler methods until we get a vaccine. Do you not believe the numbers out of China? I know we have to be smart and cautious, but do you not? Uh,

you know, I think it's hard to know. And I think in a way it doesn't really matter because we have to deal with what we have to deal with here, which is you know, airplanes coming in and out and people traveling around and and honestly, the the screening people with just shooting a temperature at them to to check their temperature as a very inefficient. People can be uh harboring the virus for for several days and be infectious

without really having symptoms. So and masks as well. Back in everyone war cloth masks um and we had fifty million worldwide dead. We actually fortunately have much lower numbers. It's about um over a million worldwide. So uh, not to compare one virus to another, they're they're definitely different viruses, but I think it's harder in an open traveling society

to lock it down quite as effectively. And therefore we have to rely on individuals taking responsibility with masks and losing weight and maybe taking some vitamin D and and being healthy and using intelligence, you know, to to protect themselves. Well, what's interesting too, and I just want to follow on that because we did we did have an interesting story um earlier this week on the Bloomberg that just talked about a record two hundred days no local case, making

Taiwan the world's envy. Basically saying, you know that they have the world's best virus record by far, And I do the caveat if you said, you know, if we can trust all the numbers. But what's interesting is they did talk about closing borders early, tightly regulating travel. UM. They do talk about rigorous contact tracing, which I feel like it's been tough to really get off the ground

here in the United States. They also talked about Taiwan's deadly experienced with stars and how it scared people into compliance. And I wonder if how big a factor that is based from what Asia had to deal with and that knowledge having gone through that before, versus you know, maybe our lack of that experience UM here in the United States. No, I agree, Lord, Taiwan is a relatively small island, and

they can really they're surrounded by water. They can certainly seal their borders of and and can function independently, certainly for a period of time. I think it's less realistic in Europe and the United States to do something like that. I certainly support kind of a universal mask mandate. I think we're kidding ourselves to say that will stop things

in his track. But I think simple things like that if people would get on board with certainly slow things until we do get the vaccine, and hopefully people will will be encouraged. I'm I'm concerned exactly as you report that people have hesitancy they think operational work speed is too too fast, as outlined in the Bloomberg article. I'm not sure that's really true. I I do think a lot of companies have benefited financially enormously. This happens in war.

Those military material suppliers always do well. Uh. And I think in this COVID war, uh, some drug companies maybe unfairly have been rewarded. But I do feel safety precautions have been pretty careful. All right. And I'm just just real quickly, just got about twenty seconds. Are you guys seeing an n y U and going to seeing an increasing cases coming into the hospital COVID slightly not a

huge surge. So there are pockets in New York and Brooklyn and others where you know, there are gatherings without masks. So we are seeing a slight uptick nowhere near what was previous, but there's still you know, we're still early in the winter, all right. Always great to check with you check in with you have a good weekend, a safe weekend. Dr Ian LUs Bader, Clinical Associate Professor of Medicine at n y U Land Going Medical Center, joining

us on the phone from New York City. Coming up, we're gonna check in with one of the most read stories on the Bloomberg. It's also from Bloomberg Business Week, and it talks about a well known quant firm and how they are taking your election bets, and of course rather timely with the election of course just around the corner. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser from Bloomberg Radio.

Got a great story for you all. This story, it's in the magazine this week, which is hitting news stands, online and on the Bloomberg. It's also among our most read on the Bloomberg terminal today. There's an investment angle. There's an election angle. It's about the well known quant trade or known for its interest in statistics of gambling and it's ready to be on the other side of big presidential wagers. Let's get into it with Bloomberg News

investing reporter Annie Massa. She's on the phone in New York City and also with as Bloomberg Business Week Editor Jill Weber on the phone in Brooklyn. There's always a way to make money off of everything, it feels like, Joel. Yeah, well, you know, and you can spend that money on you know, the New York Mets, if you're Steve Cohen or you know,

if you have other other deep pockets and change. You can also wager on the outcome of the U S election, which basically got my attention when Annie came to us with this story. And um, actually I always my ears always perk up whenever she says something about Susquehana, because that's just a company that I find very interesting. Further interest in in um probability in the in the biggest sense, but that also comes down to things like games and

outcomes presidential elections. So so any um hundred million dollars is the cap um how much how much you got going into I haven't gotten involved for it because I'm in the US, whereas it isn't legal, and this prospect they're kind of raising for people to bet in the UK, where these kinds of political betting markets are legal, you have to be based over there, so it's not available to us today, but who knows the future be sports

settings obviously has been legalized in some states. So tell us what's going on, tell us what they're up to here. The idea is that Susquehanna, which as Joel mentioned, has a big interest in gaining and probabilities games like poker, backgammon, and also political betting UM, has this UH farm in Dublin that h does sports setting and also UM betting on political outcomes. And so there are exchanges in the UK where UM you can bet on things like the

outcome of the US presidential election. And what susquets proposing is they kind of sit behind the scenes UM on these exchanges. And if you were a hedge fund UM or you know, a big better based abroad in the UK, you could go to one of these exchanges and place a pretty large bet on the outcome of the election, and Um Susquehanna might be one of the kind of market makers on the other end willing to take the other side and and any UM give us a sense of like, were you able to figure out how many

people have actually participated in this wager yet at Tuskhana. Yeah, I mean, if Bear is mentioning, it has not really been UM picking up a whole lot of beat on Wall Street. But I got interested in this idea of whether financial firms would ever be interested, um one day, in getting involved in more size in the political betting markets. And you can bet on all kinds of outcomes beyond just the idea of who's going to win the presidency. You can bet on what day will the winner be called?

Will it be you know, November third election night, or will it laugh you know, will it go out to November fourth or fifth or six? If UM votes are still being counted, you can bet on you know, what margin while they went by individual states and how they all got. So there's all kinds of outcomes that you can bet on on these markets. Um. The options are kind of limit less, and I was curious to see if there's any history there of financial firms betting on

political outcomes. And it actually turns out that in the US, up through World War Two it was there was actually a very big political betting market that operated on the Curb Exchange, which later became the American Exchange. UM. So, and you know, it only kind of went away as

polling and more types of gambling became more widespread and accessible. UM. You know any one of the things that companies of stories and you mentioned it is predicted UM data on on which day of the week the election will be determined. And according to the chart that accompanied the story, it's it's Wednesday, November four has the has the most action

on it. UM. And I'm wondering, um, as you sort of have talked to uh, um, you know that all the people in this sort of space are they do they think that the activity will ramp up between now and the end or or is it going to become a little bit more muted since uncertainty will obviously be the name of the game. It seems like they're actually has been a bit more action in the past couple

of days. UM. As I was reporting the story, there had done a total of about two hundred million dollars that on just the winner um of of the US presidential election on that chair UM in the UK, which is one of the exchanges. And UM, it's been just over the course of the time that I was reporting

the story out that over two hundred and sixty millions. So, I mean, these aren't these aren't by any means like huge eye popping figures by Wall Street Standard's been pretty small, um, but I mean there was a pickup that I saw even over the course of writing the story as we got closer to the presidential election. I have to say, any I do love, like you know, the UK, where they just kind of dice and slice and bed on everything, and it's it's certainly very a different world here in

the US. But I do wonder, you know, could it be pending the outcome of the election itself, you know that changes or impacts the regulatory environment. I mean, I wonder if there is enough demand for something like this

here in the US. Yeah, it's a great question of sports betting has only recently there was a federal band lifted on it, and now states are free to um legalize sports betting, and so you know, you wonder whether political betting could ever come into the next to something we mentioned in the story though, is there's already evidence

that regulators uh don't love that idea. There was an exchange that tried to lift um a kind of uh few like a futures derivative product based on the outcome of the twelve elections, So that would be on a regular derivative exchange, but kind of like almost a political betting type product, and the c SEC kind of struck that down, saying, you know that that could really get into murky territory um and damage the integrity of elections, and it's not really clear what it would be used

for as a hudgen product. So I think that that shows that maybe regulators don't have a great taste in their mouth about political betting markets just yet in the US. And you know one other thing that just bears mentioning in uh in your story, Annie's uh. You know that there are other ways to express bets on elections, and you know, places like JP Morgan Uh, as you write, strategists there have created you know, Trump basket and the Biden basket of stocks that they think could do well

depending on which administration. But obviously that that kind of technique has not worked in the past based on you know, certain stocks that end up outperforming their expectations as well, which all goes back to the idea of you know, it's it's ultimately that's why why lets you wage you a million dollars? Because no one knows and all I can think about election night when future is tanked and then the next day the market rallied, so nothing is

for sure. Um, Joel, thank you so much. Joel Webber, of course, editor of Bloomberg Business Week, and Annie massa investing reporter at Bloomberg Newsroom the Journal. Yeah, but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no, who's honey Please, I'll do the riding. I want to drive, just drive the questions trying. This is the drive to the Globe community.

Thanks Dawn on Bloomberg Radio. I just got about eleven minutes left in today's trading day, getting ready to wrap up the entire week, and we know it's certainly been a tricky one for equities. Back with us for the drive to the clothes. Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial. They've got roughly eight hundred billion in assets under management, joining us on the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Ran, Nice to have you back with us before we get

into the markets. Uh, there's so much going on, but I do want to ask you how's it going in Charlotte? Hey, Carol, thank you for having me back. Thanks are going all right? You know we had that hurricane come through just yesterday and literally schools were canceled tons of wind and it was it was it was, you know, a rough, rough day, kind of summarizing I think for sure. But overall, you know, we're slowly kind of doing things. My daughter is a day b day right now in January. I think they're

gonna go to old time. Although obviously we can talk about all the cases that are spiking that might change, but we're hanging in there. I guess down here in Charlotte's best way to put it. Well, that's what I wanted to ask you. I think you know, certainly as individuals and certainly as investors, were trying to gauge, okay, how things are going, what we're seeing in terms of

these virus cases because it's all connected, right. What happens with the virus is certainly impacting our world, our health, our economy, uh and really gives us an idea of maybe what's to come over the next few months, and ultimately it'll play out in the financial markets as well. So what are your expectations because you are watching those

numbers go up? Yeah, I mean, you know, and let's not forget I mean financial markets they tend to lead, right, I mean they tend to kind of react before the economic data honestly and just do today. And I think it got us today was that consumer spending number up one point four month over month in September. We've got five straight months of at least one percent gain in consumer spending. We've never seen that that data goes back to the nineteen sixties. Now. I'm aware that's because of

a huge drop in March and April. But the one thing I think it's guests come on with you, and as we talk with r lp L advisors, everyone is so surprised at the resiliency of the US consumer, and we know the economy is not perfect, but they make up sevent GDP. We all know that GDP number yesterday. So the consumer, with all the bad things that are happening, is still spending and that is one big positive we think as we head into one and likely the economy

continues to expand. Do you think it continues though, especially if we see another shutdown of some sorts. We're still waiting on some kind of stimulus. Who knows if we we ultimately get it. I mean there are people out there, you know the stories and we've talked with him before, people who are just you know, barely getting by just trying to pay the rent or put food on the table. Absolutely, and you know there there will be help coming for them.

Unfortunately it's taken a lot longer. Maybe we all thought would be August six when Congress went to the summer recess, where that didn't happen. But you know, just looking at the market signals, right. I mean if you look at copper, I mean copper has been really strong, copper versus gold has been strong. That's normally a sign of an improving economy. Look at and you're yield today ten you're yields up today, that big down day the other day ten year old

was higher. So bond market is maybe telling us a little bit, and know where we listening to us to Hey, yes, stocks are vaultile, there's an election next week, there's COVID, all these concerns. We get it. But the bond market and the credit markets they're still suggesting potentially, you know, uh, improving economy, which I know was little opposite to what people expect. But I'm not going to ignore what the

bond market saying here. Yeah, it's interesting we've been talking to about the gold trade that you would anticipate that everybody would be running to gold, and yet we we haven't necessarily really seen that play out. So let me also ask you about the tech earnings. Right, there's been so much momentum in the financial markets this year thanks

to the tech sector, um slew of earnings Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Twitter. Uh, how do you assess the results that we got and what it tells us about maybe their fortunes to come, especially like maybe over the next six or twelve months. Absolutely well, we still like technologies next six or twelve months. But right here and right now, I think it tells us that bar is awfully high because what they said

was and all that bad. But boy, those stocks are really getting pounded right now as as you just discussed, and you know, it makes it sense to us that maybe there's a little bit more of a correction and technology here. But again, when you look out in the next year, technology is still one of those areas that we're gonna have a lot of earnings growth. Then don't forget historically speaking, we have a low inflation, low growth,

low rates world. What tends to do well in that scenario it's growth stocks as investors reach for growth and specifically technology. So we're not we we'd actually think about using this um pullback in tech recently as an opportunity to potentially add to positions that you're willing to hold the next six to twelve months. How we're viewing it right here, so it sounds like you still like the

growth play, not necessarily the value play. Yeah, we we definitely still side with growth a little bit over value. But at the same time where maybe take a barbelled approach, you know, stick with you god us here communications and the growth names and tech names. But on the other side of things, those industrials and materials still look pretty good.

We're not too warm and fuzzy about financials. That's the other part of the cyclical value trade, but industrials and materials really as economy comes back and if we get more, were gonna get an infrastructure plan. Likely whoever wins this next election next week, do you think Do you think so? Yeah, we do. We think it will probably be a bigger infrastructure plan. Obviously, if Joe Biden wins, what we do expect if President Trump were to win next week sometime

in one, will probably get an infrastructure bill. Won't be quite as large, but that can still be a tale with those industrials and materials which have done quite well the last three months. So what I don't know. I'm curious about the discussions you guys are having Ryan when it comes to the election. Listen, you can look at history and you can look at trends, um, But I do wonder if something maybe is a little bit different this time around because of COVID and the impact on

the economy. But how do you see the election the outcome, uh, potentially impacting the markets? Yeah, and the near term. Historically you get a little bit of a sell off ahead of an election. We're seeing that, and then once you get the election out of the way, markets tend the rally once that uncertainties relieve. But you know what, one of the foremost dangerous words and investments right this time is different. We all know that, but boy oh boy,

this time sure does feel different. With COVID and all the different scenarios that are out there are big takes this. Whoever wins this action, as we have in thee has an economy that's slowly expanding, that's likely not going to be in a recession. It might see earnie growth in large caps and almost a hundred percent Earnie growth in small caps, that's a pretty good elixir for higher equity prices.

And it's trying to put a bow on this in a lot of people didn't like President Trump for four years. There's been a hundred almost a hundred and fifty new all time highs in the SMP for eight years of President Obama, they didn't really like him or his policies. Potentially the stocks did well then, So it's important to separate who you're voting for with really your investments. It's a very important thing to remember there. All right, kind

of it'll be an interesting week. Do you expect um volatility next week because of the election outcome or not necessarily? Now we do? You look at the vix. The vix has obviously been quite high, so we think a little bit more volatility next week. Um is probably going to be on the cards, unfortunately for investors, but again it's an opportunity because we're probably not going to have a recession next year, and that's still a chance to add

to positions for a longer term point of view. Alright, a little bit of optimism there, all right, Ryan, thank you so much. Ryan D. Trick, he's senior market strategist at LPL Financial joining us on the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina, where again another part of the country where they're seeing those virus cases go up. They've got about eight hundred billion dollars in assets under management. Thanks so

much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or at Bloomberg dot com, and be sure to check out our daily radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. And be sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News