Point of Care Tests for Airline Passengers

Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, al Bloomberg dot com. You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. Well, let's do our Friday check in with Dr Ian Lesbian, Clinical Associate Professor of Medicine over at n y U s Lango On Medical Center, joining us as he does on the phone from New

York City. So you know, it's interesting, Ian, because I feel like every day, maybe not quite as much as you, but every day Carol and I, individually and together having conversations with people about the virus, how it's playing through society, how it's playing through schools, work from home, work from the office. All of those things progress with vaccines, we look to you to separate the signal from the noise. As they say, what's the most important thing you heard

this week when it comes to the virus? Hi guys, Happy Friday, Shnatava to some of our listeners and hopefully all all as well with with you folks. No no monkeys here, No, unfortunately in the office, maybe there are a few high Is that crazy? Come on, we are about traffic stuff, you know. I don't think I've ever heard that. Don't try this at home. It's only for professionals. I agree. So, UM, you know, always interesting news on

on COVID and UM. I think the most interesting story that I heard this week was about some airlines testing point of care, which is a saliva test. And today just had a patient from one of universities and they're all all the professors and and many of the students are getting these saliva tests before returning to class, which

makes a lot of sense. And what the airlines are doing or some of them is testing, um, the travelers before they get on at these point of care uh departures tests you know that come back in in a few minutes and I think that's very reassuring to other travelers that everyone is negative before they get on board for a nine or ten or eleven hour flight. And it's similar to what we do at the hospital before

procedure surgeries pulmonary functions as struss tests. We do something more invasive than nasal swab, but and that turns around in twenty four hours. So I think what we're trying to do is to reassure people that the other people there with are safe. And I think that that's an interesting development. Why aren't we all Why are they just using saliva tests all the time. It sounds like if

they're it's easier, it's quicker, is it as UM you know? UM, it's fairly accurate, accurate activity and specificity is fairly accurate UM, And I think as data you know comes through it it's looking similar to the nasal swabs. The PCR tests, they're they're different tests. One is an antigen test, the other UM is a polymerized chain reaction or PCR that amplifies the amount. Now there can be false positives and

false negatives. We certainly can see some people who have had COVID who have recovered and when you do their nasal swab, their PCR test is positive. It's not active virus, but the the RNA is still there magnified. So sometimes you can get, you know, data that's really not helpful. But this point of care or the anergen or saliva test, I agree with you should really be done more widespread, and I think that would reassure people. We're seeing that

in schools and colleges. Many of the kids now we're getting a once or twice a week, even us alive a test, and this way you can identify in an early case and kind of isolate that group or that floor. I mean, could we have a setup and you know, we're basically like before Jason and I went to work, like you just quick did that and then once it's okay you can go into the office. I mean, do we have enough of those tests? Can we can we operate like that? I think that would be the goal.

And I think we need to sort of step away from you know, sort of the you know, political or demonstrations and cops and all of that and focus some resources on getting a lot of those point of tear tests, because I think many offices and businesses can really reopen in schools. Can we're comfortably reopen if we do that

on a periodic basis. You know, obviously there's some cost involved, but I think if we can ramp that up, people would until the vaccine arrives, and we do think that's probably January February, and you know, again that's going to be stage. We can talk about that, but I think until that comes around, these point of care tests makes sense. And I'm glad the airlines are doing that, and I certainly me getting on a plane, I would I'm happy

to do it and I feel happy. Or if everyone on board is also negative, Yeah, yeah, I agree with that for sure. I mean I do wonder Ian. You know, as we think about going back to school and what we've learned so far from both the colleges and from the secondary schools, it's uneven when it comes to learning. Let's set that aside for a second. But as you've monitored the various sort of outbreaks in college towns and

things like that, what do you take away from that. Well, we do have some data that, um, there's a big increase in COVID in young people in their twenties, UM, and really the demographics UH in Europe and elsewhere have have shifted from the sick people and more people at an older age to now bigger reservoir in younger people, probably due to you know, less social distancing and masks and socializing and that sort of thing. You know. The good news for them is that they really do tend

to do a lot better. There are really very few young children who have been severely affected by this. Of the two hundred thousand you know dead, we're talking you know, perhaps a hundred kids affected, So it's it seems to be much better tolerated. Unfortunately, they have fewer symptoms and can infect older people who are more vulnerable. That's the rationale for more testing of this sort of point of care testing where where you don't have to sit down and have a nurse stick of swab down your UH

in your nose. So Dr los Bader, let me ask you about it. Is truly our most read story on the Bloomberg in the past eight hours. This is what folks have been reading, and it talks about UM the loss of an immune function for some UH COVID niteen patients. And they're talking about the lack of a of a substance called interference that apparently, I guess helps orchestrate the

body's defense against viral pathogen. So talk to me a little bit about this, like how significant is this and what might this mean in terms of treating patients that come down with the virus. You know, I think has

potentially very positive news. You know, interference are a normal uh mammal cell response to infections, typically viral infections, And we've known about it for decades and we've used interference for a variety of diseases, including hepatitis B and hepatitis C. We have much more effective anti virals and interference are used for a variety of other kinds of autoimmune and immunologic diseases, and we certainly know that that they have

anti viral properties prevent viral replication. And for most people who have the flu, that kind of fever and muscle aches that you feel are really related. You know, it's it's in a good way to interfere in response. It's the body's natural response, and it does work in a variety of ways, and there are many different kinds of interfere on um and so it makes sense that interferon might be helpful with with this virus. You know, widespread

studies should be done. Generally, it's a safe medication and certainly may be helpful as part of a cocktail of perhaps including M deservere or steroids. And you know, we have yet to figure out sort of the ideal treatment early on to reduce the depths and uh, you know, identify that subset of patients. But I think it's very encouraging and very exciting. Uh is certainly not standard therapy at this point, but certainly studies should be done while

we're waiting for vaccines and more definitive therapy. And I think it makes a lot of sense. I do. I say this argues for having um an electronic record, a national universal health care record, because part of the problem is gathering all of this data, whether it's reporting data. You have all of these smaller systems, and it takes time for the government to gather the data. Had we had one universal health care system, you'd be able to

get this data. You'd be able to do studies more easily and really be more on top of the information. Obviously there's some you know, we have to be careful with security and so forth, but uh, that's a bit of a tangent. It's my plug for us thinking about a universal health care record. But certainly something like um interfer on really does have potential, but it has to be studied in this subset. We know it works in many viruses, how well will it work for for this virus?

Stars Covie too, We have to see. You know, one thing Ian I was thinking about when we were talking about the rapid testing that I wanted to go back to. I read something in and I think we treat you as a little bit of a MythBuster, as we said, you're you're a go to guy. I've read a couple of them. Uh yeah, yeah, you could wear like one

of those berets, um I do. I have read a couple of things that basically say, you know what, taking your temperature before you go to school or go into the office, like that's kind of I mean, it works to an extent, but really, isn't that great an indicator? What do you make of that? I agree completely. You know a lot of what we do in life makes

us feel better but doesn't really make a difference. Um. So, certainly people could take thailand old before they go to school, or they may have a very low grade temperature or they it is one kist. It's it is the easiest thing to do to squeeze a thermometer, you know, a remote thermometer as someone as they come in. And certainly if someone has a high fever, look you would you don't want them coming in. But it certainly doesn't mean that someone who doesn't have a fever can't have the

virus and can't communicate it with someone else. So it's sort of the floor. The very basic thing that you can do before people either go into a classroom or to an office building or get on an airplane would be to check their temperature. And certainly if they have a fever, look that they have tuberculosis, Could they have some other issue? Could they just have the common cold? Yes, So it's a very non specific and it's helpful, but it certainly is not going to pick up everyone who

comes in. I think it makes people feel better, see we're doing something to screen to make it a safer environment. But it is certainly Uh, it's one element, and I don't think too much weight should be put on it, but I do think it does Like Jason, you said, didn't you at one point didn't feel well or something you stayed home or right. I do think it makes it makes me think twice, like totally if I'm not feeling well, because I know there's that check whether or

not it's it's great. It makes me think a little bit about what, you know, kind of. I think we're all more sensitive as to how we're failing when we wake up every morning just to think about what we're going to do that day, and maybe ultimately that is a it is a positive thing that we can take from this Lustige are always good to catch up with You always enjoyed our MythBuster. I really enjoyed catching up with him all right. He is associate clinical professor at

n y use Langgoon Medical Center. Thank you. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio, the Equality issue of Bloomberg Business Week Magazine, pairing with the Bloomberger Quality Summit. So we've been talking about a lot of things that have been that have really come to the four Carol in these past few months. These dueling pandemics we've often called them, we and others have called them. So let's talk about it's happening in

one specific city. Susan Burfield is here with his projects and investigations reporter for Bloomberg Business Week. She's on the phone also joining us Joel Webber, the editor of Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us from Massachusetts. Uh, Joel t this up for us. This is a fascinating story. Yeah. And when that Susan flagged to us a few months ago now and just said, Hey, this is one that we've got to find a way to do and that

it makes so much sense in the quality issue. And this is a story about the city of Stockton, which America has not been known for basic income. That is an idea that has been used a lot and had it continues to be used uh in in in other international UM countries, in particular Finland had a huge experiment with universal basic income UM. Stockton has emerged as as the first place in decades that that is flirting with

US in America. And it couldn't have come at a more relevant time because basically as the program started, COVID hit Uh, Susan pick it up from there. What what has the city of Stockton learned about free money experiments? Yeah? Sure, So thanks for having me on Um. The experiment in Stockton is unusual and a little bit different than um, say,

the experiment in Finland. UM. And it's what made it kind of particularly interesting to me and relevant to the issue, and that is, you know, the the design of the experiment and the attempt is not too focus on just

the unemployed as the experiment in finlandon. You know, as Andrew Yang during the presidential campaign, did you know, assuming people might lose their jobs from automation and are going to need a little extra help, This program is looking very specifically at people who live in low income neighborhoods who need you know what they call it, essentially a

financial vaccine. They need something that makes them a little more resistant, um, a little more a little less vulnerable to all of the kinds of shocks um that existed before the pandemic and then especially uh those that came because of the pandemic. I love this story. I know the magazine has talked about this before, Susan Um. We're

not talking about welfare though, right, It's different. Yeah, So this is the notion that you know, people know, um what they need, and you know, when they don't have a lot of money, what do they need they need money, and and they and that they know how to spend it. So it's it's a cash UM, it's a cash dividend, you know. In this case, it's given out every month. UM.

It was it was five dollars UM. The program was meant and in July, and because of the pandemic, the mayor and others found additional funding to continue it through January. So it'll be for almost two years, about a d twenty people have received an extra five hundred dollars every month. And that's in addition to whatever other benefits they may be receiving. UM. And it's you know, not meant to replace those, but to give people flexibility. And Susan why Stockton?

Why was that the place that became sort of the petree for this particular experiment. The Stockton's interesting for a lot of reasons. UM it is in some ways, UM, typical American city. You know, in that UM it was falling behind in some ways. UM it is atypical. And that it's very diverse, mean, among the most diversities in America. UM. But with that has come you know, inequality. There's a

pretty high poverty rate. Stockton was known as being one of the early epicenters of the housing crisis in two thousand and eight, it was the first major city to declare bankruptcy before Detroit. Uh, and so you know it was it had kind of come in and out of the national attention and more recently in it elected a very young, um black mayor who is a very effective advocate for the city and brought this program to Stockton

and and is its biggest champion. Yeah. And we should point out that Mayor Michael Stubbs, he has been supported by Michael Bloomberg. He graduated from a Harvard mayoral training program back in Mayor Stubbs did, and also Blueberg philanth Frees has donated to a Stockton education reform group. Just want to put that out there, so Susan, as other cities have seen what's been going on. Is this something especially you have mentioned this earlier that Andrew Yang, the

presidential candidate, had sort of put out this idea. Does this have the potential to catch on? Yeah? So just um, just this summer, Mayor Tubbs announced a coalition of other mayors. There's twenty five now who are willing and interested in advocating for some kind of policy like this at the state and federal level, and maybe even more important, are committed to raising the money to put in place experiments

in their own cities. Uh. And you know what we could say about that is that, uh, I think in part um, you know, Stockton's experiment has shown so far it's still underway. Obviously, you know that people are hot year, that they're less stressed, you know, and that they feel like they can make better decisions for themselves and their

families with this money. So I think during a pandemic, you know, alongside civil unrest and protests against racism, that this is a policy that more mayors at least are considering and thinking are worth while to try to fund. Uh. And then you know, we'll see what happens beyond that, right. Well, And what's interesting is is it kind of gets These are people who are working, they have jobs. It's just they can barely make things, you know, meet and provide

for their families. And so that's what's interesting. And the virus has reminded us, and you write this in your story about how vulnerable many many Americans are to a sudden shock and needs some kind of assistance like this, All right, Susan. Susan, thank you so much, really appreciated. Susan Burfield, she's Projects and Investigations reporter at Bloomberg Business Week on the phone from New Yorker. Thanks to Joe

as well. Check out that equality issue. Yeah, it's a great story, definitely worth thread and part of, as you say, a big issue dedicated to equality, pairing nicely with our equality summit which you've been hearing a lot about this week. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason

Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. In today's Business Week Economics excited to back with us, and really it's a double dose for me because Danny blanche Flower was so gracious to join me in a few of our Bloomberg colleagues earlier today for chat with breakaway CEOs. He is professor of economics at Dartmouth College, former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member. On the phone from Florida. Um, Danny, first of all, I know have messaged you, but thank you,

thank you, because you really were a great force this morning. Um, we talked with a bunch of CEOs. You you know, you talked about unemployment that you know, the outlook for the economy. It's pretty grim in terms of how you see it. Um, I'm just curious if you had some takeaways, uh,

you know, from from what from our discussion. Well, I think the big takeaway was that some people are doing pretty well, and obviously particular boosnesses have managed to see their way through this, and obviously actions by the Fed of boosted asset prices, and obviously we've had some sort of fallback over the last week or so. But that's one thing. The other worry is that, you know, the tail end of the labor market is in is in

big trouble. I mean, one of the big things if you look at the wage grower to is you see that it's growing at about six and makes no sense. Well, what it means is that the lower part of the wage distribution has dropped out. And the concern is, well, what happens going forward? Are they going to come back, are the temporary furloughed firms going to survive? And are people going to change their long round behavior? And I think the answer is that none of these things look

especially good. And the predictions by the FED that the unemployment rate next year is going to go to five and a half, and the year after that is like to go to four point six is in well cloud cuckoo land. And I think the prospects of weakening labor markets up there, and the fact that the stimulus has been dragged on suggests that we're going to see something worse before we see something better. And so are they just being too optimistic or they reading the data wrong? What? What?

What's the sort of missing link here? Well, they've traditionally read the data wrong. They read it completely. In my book working on a precisely about this said from two thousand fifteen. They don't seem to have a clue about the labor market. It's said in two thousand sifting through eighteen that the labor market was at full employment. I are in frequently that it clearly wasn't raised rates in error, and then we get eventually to power backtracking in and saying, yeah,

we've got that wrong. We need to sort of adapt and worry about maximum employment. UM. I mean, in a sense, the thing they're having to do is to try and forecast forward, but it's really hard with these present data will work out exactly what's going on. And I think every time you look at it, you realize that the data are actually much worse and likely to get and

worse again. How can you suddenly say they know that everything's going to be great in two thousand and twenty one, that it seems probably a five trillion dollar FISTS was stimulus and probably finding an effective vaccine that everybody takes and the furloughed firms all come back and no firms die. Well, that's that doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Right, It's like everything goes as we would hope it would go, and that's not likely. I do wonder what are some of

the discussions you're having with students at Dartmouth. I mean, you're not back on campus, and I know we talked about it earlier. Just remind us kind of how that's all going right now? Well, it's gone, it's gone pretty well. I mean, I mean I taught it remotely in the in the spring. I'm teaching remotely again. Um there there, it seems to be done pretty well. Dart with is very well resourced. I think I said one thing, I noticed that there's not much interaction between student and student,

although maybe they just take the each other. Would I just say, I mean, I think that's that's obviously what's happening. One of the benefits of what I teach is what I'm talking to you about. I get them to think about how the world isn't I actually start most classes and I say, this class is about what the heck is going on, which is what carroble. You guys, come on here and that's what you do too. I think that I mean in a sense there that they're in

economics and in the class of society. They're incredibly interested, obviously in what's going on and trying to trying to see your way through this complex situation. We've never seen before. I mean, we've never seen anything like this. Don't kid ourselves. The UK so grow dropping output in one quarter, We've never seen anything like that. I mean in in twenty oh eight, you sort output dropped by about five percentage points in five quarters. So so the thing that we

understand what's happening. We've not seen things that this, that this depth of dropped, but I think we haven't any precedent for what for the speed that this has happened. So to say that these kids aren't interested, well, they in to be interested and they're trying to understand what goes on because they're all were worried about getting jobs and are they going to be able to come back to Dartmouth for the for the spring and song. Um,

so these are exciting and interesting and scary times. Well. And speaking of jobs, and especially for the college educated, which is you know, candidly the vast majority of our listeners. I mean, what does the job market look like for for the next couple of years for people who you know, do pursue an undergraduate just sticking with undergraduate education. Is it Is it okay for them? Well, the answer is, we know a huge fundamental factors. We've worked a lot

over the years about unemployment amongst the young. The one thing we know probably of all things that you ask about college graduates is it's it's worse to graduate when the when the unemployment race is high. And so that means two things. It means that you basically and to

lower down the job pyramids. And you normally would the pyramid of jobs, and you'd normally enter a place where college graduates enter where college graduates entered, well, they they actually end up entering lower and it takes a really really long time, if ever, to catch up that earning path. So it's a really it's it certainly is harmful to graduate in the depths of a recession and where we've never seen anything quite like this, So obviously that that's

a big concern. And I think the bigger concern even than that are people who are graduate or even dropping out of high school. What's going to happen to those kids? Where are they going to go? And I think at least, you know, the the college graduates mostly will be okay, but it's the one. It's the seventeen year old who dropped out of a high school in Queens or in Alabama or in San Francisco, which we're really going to

have to worry about. And they and in the thirties they had to set up schemes to deal with them. The Civilian Conservation Corps was set up deal with millions of people and were slow to the act. Got to ask you about some research that you shared with Carol. She was nice enough to share with me, which is

very close to hers and my heart. We talk about sleep all the time, and and what's interesting is you have given statistical and very well done academic evidence to what I have seen in my co host, which is too little or too much is not what we need. We need just the right amount of sleep. Tell me what you found, Well, the we have lots of evidence. I mean, I'm a person as a labor so I'm interested in unemployment and I'm interested in the consequences of

our employment. When it turns out, one of the big things that you find is that the unemployed um of really bad sleep. And I haven't really understood it's not only what they have disrupted sleep. That's the other thing, even if you get enough out is what we've seen in this great pandemic is people's disruption of But what I found is that short sleep is really bad and the unemployed disproportion you have shut sleep, and that's one

of the big things that's going on now. But one of the serious consequences in a in a way it looks at not having a job, is that actually people sleep a really long time, they sleep too long, and that has has bad consequences as well. But I think the evidence right now is and Carol's point, worried about you during this during this pandemic, The evidence of all these academic papers is that people especially wake up in

the night and they wake up and they worry. They worry about their family and their friends and the pandemic and how they're going to pay the bills and how they're gonna how they're gonna eat. So one of I think one of the things we're going to see is more and more documented evidence of the importance of sleep. And there's lots of medical journals all about it, but I don't think people really have connected together that, you know, an unemployment shot comes that product we're talking about, that

is this pandemic shot. The economy shuts down. Unemployment comes in that The mechanism if you like to get to a bad outcome about health outcome mental or physical, is through sleep. And I think, what is this is? And carols the experts there wasn't it, which is, you know, having decent sleep really matters. And I think that's one

of the things. It appears that's really taken a hit in the last six months and unlikely to suddenly get better, say again, and unlikely to suddenly better, which is if you think, if you think there's a V shaped recovery. One of the things I always say to people, it doesn't make sense. Do you think that in the next six months, suddenly all those issues are over. Carol's not going to worry about our kids and our kids been in school and all of that stuff. It's all suddenly

going to go. You must assume our guests that your sleep is going to be Even if the economy does recover strongly, your sleep is not going to recover as quickly because we're all we're all anxious and depressed and lonely and all of that that's not going away. And so the idea that you're going to get a v

shape it doesn't make any sense. Well, there's costs. I know you talk about healthcare costs, but you also to talk about you know, when people are in that position, they're less likely to get out there and look for a job. It just put them in a bad way. Well, I think of it. Think of the part of it was particularly if unemployed people sleep too long, what it means is they sleep too long, they miss the appointment. I mean we've seen that a lot in the UK.

They've introduced all these sorts of measures about if you're unemployed, these are the benefits that you get, and you have to show up for a meeting. And one of the big things that happens is people don't shot up to their meeting. Now, why they lose their benefits? Some of it, I assume is that you can get up. I mean there's a reason for it. I mean that you might say because they're lazy, whatever. But if the evidence is people are sleeping too long, it means then they can't

get to their appointments. They probably can't shot up for an interview. And even if they do get a job, not reliable because they don't come into work. That's bad. It's interesting too to think about, you know, this ultimately being a health crisis of multifaceted proportion. Carol, Yeah, I mean, I do think we're all looking at things differently in terms of the costs and the impact um And luckily, you know, some people you know have the means or the health care that can take care of all of

this stuff or a lot of it. Not everybody's that way. So, Danny, I don't know, leave us with some thought any optimism out there ahead of the weekend. Well, the thing I know in my happiness research is that there is a U shape in happiness, which means that the low is in the mid forties, but eventually it gets better. I mean,

in general, economies do eventually bounce back. And if you're at the low point of the happiness function, what I can tell you is that you can be like me a little older and on the rising part of the happiness function, and you get grandkids. And the great thing is is when when they when they have a dirty diaper, you can hand it to moms. Would you manage? Would you kind of manage this? Please? I'm going fishing. All right. Well, we hope that we're we're on the upside of the

year before too long. And we always, as always take you for your time and especially general us to Bloomberg today given the great conversation. I know you's incredible already. Earlier with Carol Masser, Danny blanche Flower is professor of economics at Dartmouth College. We love catching up with him. His better watch, Jason, I might just make Danny my co host. Listen, I would not be surprised. You're not surprised. You guys have great chemistry. This is Bloomberg Business Week

with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. It's time for the Drive to the Clothes. We're getting to the close of trading here for the week, and as Charlie said, getting very close to the end of this quarter crazy September. It was interesting to hear the hedgephone story where they were saying, hey, workers don't come back till next July. Yeah, yeah, I know, I know. Time has started to become like sort of weirdly elastic. It feels like. Let's check in with Shaun Cruz, manager of

trader strategy at t d Amor Trade. He joins us on the phone from Chicago, Sean, how are you. How are things out in Chicago? They're They're great so far. Some some pretty decent weather, which is always nice. You can these maybe get out and walk around, uh and occasionally sit out in a patio if there's if you get the chance, is it safer in terms of virus and your concerns or how do you How are you

guys feeling that still? Uh? No, I think there's still a little bit of concern and they actually have taken some steps to not necessarily put in restrictions, but they have gone to asking you whenever you are interacting with um, you know, a server, to put your mask back on

while you're conversing. When your order things like that. So I think they are sort of trying to go in the direction and get ahead of things a little bit because there is this expectation, I'm sure we'll get this in a second of the potential for it, a sort of a second round, our second wave of COVID coming um here in the US, which you've already started to see overseas, And so I think it is putting to get ahead of it a little bit if we can.

Your bears are looking pretty good. We're not used to it. I always have some teams some things like to snatch victory for the positive that the Bears have been known to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. So both winds, but we'll take them to and those two and oh yeah, well, I think you're playing my falcons this weekend. And we have had not a great start, very vulnerable to say the least. All right, so let's talk about what's going

on in the markets if we can. You know, one thing that we actually didn't talk about as much as we probably should have yesterday is Costco. And I do wonder what you make of it, because I think a lot of our listeners out there, big Costco fans. Candidly, I certainly put myself in that in that category, But what was your read on what they said? Because it is sort of an interesting economic indicator. It feels like, yeah, and so Costco. It's always interesting to to look into

details of what Costco does do. You never really get too surprised by their revenue numbers because they put those out monthly, so we we sort of knew what the three month revenue picture was going to look like for them. But it's always interesting to look and see your foot traffic cart size. You maybe saw people making trips, so foot traffic was down, but you saw the average cart size go up. Um, that's something that you would expect

to continue. Digital sales is actually fairly strong for Costco as well, but I think it reinforces when we try and paint this picture of what people are doing right now. People are maybe have kids home because they're not going off to college or even um if they have. You know some kids that that were millennials living in cities who now comorc remote decided to save save them money on the rent and just move back home as well. So I think there's more people in some of these homes.

So they are now going out and cooking at home a lot more as well, and that sort of savers companies like Costcos. If you have four or five miles of feeding, it becomes pretty price efficient to go buy it all in bulk at Costco. Well, it's funny because we talked with the General Mill CEO this week and he said specifically, it's not like you're not only feeding yourself breakfast, but now you're feeding yourself lunch. Uh. You know, and listen, we work for a company that would often

feed us all of that, you know. But I mean people are definitely cooking more and they need more food at home. Yeah, And I mean that's I could say. I typically always, you know, eight lunch out in the city somewhere we you know, would would ordering for dinner, go out for dinner. So definitely, uh. I think even if you aren't doing it for the entire family, pretty much everyone across the board is having to some extent or another prepare food at home, and so that favors

quite a few different businesses. Amazon with grocery deliveries another I think great example of of something that's shifted over the past couple of months. And I think that actually changes behaviors moving forward. People were a little SCARIU about am I comfortable ordering vegetables or something that can spoil quickly online? And now they've they've gotten comfortable with that, and I think the companies that are delivering that service have ironed out a lot of the wrinkles as well.

So I think that is actually gonna be an interesting shift moving forward that we shouldn't expect that times on the swing back entirely the other way, even in a post COVID environment. Sean, what do you think about the action? You know, less than forty days out here? Uh, we are talking about it all the time from a news perspective, and certainly the political headlines are running fast and furious. But I do wonder both historically and everything is sort

of thrown out the window. I feel like historically these days, how do you think about the election as it bears down on us, given that it is so close? So one thing I think in the past and this election will be maybe you can have one one president is you know maybe back in uh in Florida, UM, when there was the whole the hanging chat or deal and that took us some time UM to work through the court cases to really uh you know, officialize that the outcome,

at least for Florida. I think now the expectation is, you know, it's one thing in which is Florida's just one state. We may have this across multiple states, and it may take some time to to get an idea of who the siginfield of winner for the election is. So I think it's generally agree upon across the board

across the political spectrum. We're not going to know who the winner is on election day or probably even the days after, so it will be a little bit different than Okay, who won, I know who one now here is how I'm going to maybe react to UM, you know, what their policies are going to be. And there are two very different economic policies, especially from the tax point

of view, being put on the table here. So there's there's gonna be some certainly some UM impacts on asset prices that I think dramatically one way or another based off who the eventual winner ends up being. Here. That the thing is is, I think there's going to be

a significant amount of volatility. If we look at the volatility futures, they're sort of pointing to that as well, UM for the vault of these features in that November time period, and I honestly think you're going to have you think of the headlines that you get, you know, around COVID that can sort vaccinations, that can drive us

one way or another day to day. I think it's going to be like that, but even more amplified um in the weeks after the election, based off of how the various counts and ruins are going to be going. I think that's going to be the big headline rest going into November. And I think that's even why in days like today, where you have pretty bob broad based strength, you're not seeing the zicks pulled back too much. I would expect to day with this much broad based route.

I mean, it's pretty much across the board. On the heat Matt Green, it's still above twenty six. So it's telling you there there's they're having a nice day. But you should expect choppiness and swings like this. I would say at least for the next two months or so. Well, Listen, it's gonna be crazy between the election, and if we start to see virus cases pick up, there's gonna be so many things being thrown once again at investors um Sean.

Thank you so much. Good chat. Shawn Cruise, manager of Trader Strategy t D marriage Trade on the phone from Chicago. Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, South Cloud, Blueberg dot com, or wherever you get a podcast. And of course you can always listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global newsm