Nvidia Touts Energy Efficiency of Chips at Washington Summit - podcast episode cover

Nvidia Touts Energy Efficiency of Chips at Washington Summit

Oct 08, 202437 min
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Episode description

Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg News US Semiconductor & Networking Reporter Ian King explains how Nvidia, facing concerns about the electricity demands of artificial intelligence computing, touted the energy efficiency of its latest chips at a conference Tuesday in Washington. Bloomberg News Senior Economics Writer Shawn Donnan discusses how two US towns show what happens when China gets hit with tariffs. Bloomberg Plugged-In with Bloomberg Technology Co-Host Ed Ludlow on Rivian Misstep Triggered Parts Shortage Hobbling Its EV Output. And we Drive to the Close with Larry Pitkowsky, Managing Partner at Goodhaven Capital Management.
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

Speaker 2

Jess pulling up shairs of Nvidia on the terminal because we want to talk about It's up about four percent. Listen. We talk about a Hi every Day, came up at a conversation that a Lisa Bramo It's had with JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimond. You can find that by the way on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot Com. We'll hear more too from Jamie Diamond in our next segment. But when it comes to AI, there have been a lot of concerns about it, when it comes to the

electricity demands of artificial intelligence commute computing. On that, Nvidia is out today tauting the energy efficiency of its latest chips and that is why you're seeing some support in in video shares. As I said, Tim up about four percent.

Speaker 3

Here with more on that. Bloomberg News US semiconductor and networking reporter Ian King. He joins us from our San Francisco bureau in we have this AI summit in Washington, d C. Tell us about the event and what news we got out of Nvidia, and I just want to contextualize this a little bit. Torston slock over it, Apollo sunds out notes all the time. He sent one today that talked about data centers use twenty six percent of

Virginia's total power consumption. So just a little idea of what we're talking about when it comes to demand of these things.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I mean, in general, Invidio in Washington trying to make a pitch to government and various industries. You know, if the rest of the industry is kind of trying to chase them in terms of hardware and make hardware as good as I kind they're already basically forging food and saying, hey, no, we're going to make it possible for everybody to use AI. And you know if you like that, trying to shift the whole industry forward, and

that's why they're in Washington. But as you say, the power of is a continuing kind of concern that everybody has about the overall adoption of this technology, and therefore, in video is trying to position themselves and their technology as kind of the answer rather than the problem.

Speaker 2

All right, so tell us about exactly what we got. I read in your story in Blackwell chips using three gigawatts of power to develop open ais GBT for software. So that's a pretty big reduction from what it has used.

Speaker 4

Well, this is that for their sort of illustration purposes. This is they're arguing that this is more efficient. And the reason they're doing that is because the previous generation of Hopper chips they drew about seven hundred watts. The new version that's coming to the market right now, called Blackwell will draw one point three killer watts, and that's obviously a lot more. So everybody's like, oh dear, is this going to like cause the earth to go dark?

And the answer is maybe maybe not. I mean, the problem Their argument is, look, it works so much faster, therefore it's more efficient. And that is true in one way. But if you deploy more black Wells then you deployed Hoppers, then maybe we've got more overall power being drawn. So there's a very nuanced argument being made here for how these things should be deployed.

Speaker 3

Maybe it will cause the world to go dark unless we put nuclear reactors and nuclear power plants back online like Microsoft Constellation are trying to do when it comes to Through Mile Island.

Speaker 5

Maybe.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I mean, there are a lot of solutions, a lot of to this problem, and nuclear is one of the power source problems building these data centers in where there's more renewable energy available. Jensen Wang, he talks to about it on like a micro level, where a lot of the power and is wasted in cooling these things down because they get so hot. So his latest generation is going to be actually water cooled, which is kind of a back to the future sort of approach towards

this thing, and that will reduce the overall energy. So there are lots and lots of solutions being offered, but there's no doubt that they are absolutely needed because of the path that we're on in terms of data manipulation and what that means for the amount of computing that's being deployed.

Speaker 5

Yeah.

Speaker 2

There's another story today right about Google working with utilities in the US and other countries to assess nuclear power as a possible energy source for them. Okay, all right, So it just feels like yay innovation, yay, possibly other big problem. Having said that, in video, Ian also talked about agent blueprints some software news. What's that all about? Help us understand, help us become smarter? When it comes to what end Video is up.

Speaker 4

To, Yeah, I mean they're basically trying to do it all for everybody. Anything that they see as an obstacle towards the adoption of AI, they're coming up with a solution for. It's a remarkably dynamic effort, and whether it'll be successful or not, we'll see, but it's very hard to fault the effort levels that are going on. What an agent is. It's that kind of last mile, that last piece of software where you've trained your big model.

You're a company, you've trained your big model, you have all of the intelligence built in, but then you have to have something that deals with the customer open AIS general solution isn't good enough, right, You need something specific, something that either will help you design a new vehicle, or it'll deal with your customer service problems, or it'll

help you solve a drug discovery issue. And so what in video is saying is, hey, we'll give you the blueprints to do these so you can go even faster, no obstacles towards deployment. Companies get out there and do it. That's what they're doing, and hard to argue that they're not foreseeing all of the problems and trying to solve them right now.

Speaker 2

Again, it's like, buy all our stuff and we'll make AI create everything for you. I don't mean to be cynical. I just feel like we're trying to find our way through this.

Speaker 4

No, it's not being cynical. It's absolutely on point. That's what they're doing.

Speaker 3

It's time for the periodic question about invidious competitors and just how they're doing it.

Speaker 2

We have music for that.

Speaker 3

We haven't got to check in with you in a little bit, but help us understand how the competitors are doing and if they're even on the tracks of video yet.

Speaker 4

Well, we'll find out a little bit more about that this week. Where you know, the purported closest competitor, AMD, they're having a conference later this week, so perhaps we'll see some new hardware there, perhaps we'll see some new software. We won't know, but that should give us a nice

update coming later in the week. But in general, terms in video is generally perceived as being sort of still over the horizon that everybody else is really chasing hard and not really making much of a dent anytime soon.

Speaker 2

If we weren't talking about Nvidea all the time, if we weren't talking about intelling its woes all the time, what would be the chip company that would be front and center for you.

Speaker 4

Well, we've just seen some song the world's kind of second largest largest chip maker, depending upon what day it is and how you slice it, coming out and saying hey, we're really sorry, we're not good enough. We should be better than this. Companies like Micron, companies like SKA Hennicks have really struggled in some song's wake over the years, and some songs kind of dominance has never really been doubted in that kind of memoryship area. Sometimes they're admitting

weakness here. Admittedly Intel would like to have the kind of weakness that Samsung has, which is less profits rather than no profits. But that's kind of, you know, looks like a change of the guard for an industry that's really been set in stone for a very long time.

Speaker 2

On Intel, anything that you know you're expecting any kind of news on them anytime soon.

Speaker 4

Well, you know, we're coming into earning season again, and really this is a company that cannot afford any more unforeseen disasters. I think people will be sort of pleasantly, sort of reassured if they can manage to do what they said they were going to do. You remember last time we were significantly below forecasts. Intel really needs a quarter where it does what it said it was going to do to kind of help restore stability.

Speaker 2

Unbelievable stuff, all right, bottom line back to Nvidia, because I'm just going all around.

Speaker 3

It's going to be where you're gainers.

Speaker 2

It is one of my gainers. Okay, on a scale of one to ten, the News in terms of importance to the company's business, growth, trajectory and valuation.

Speaker 4

Growth is everything, right now? Can they keep this growth going? That's all anybody wants to see.

Speaker 2

All right, that's all we need to know. All right, Hey, Ian, thank you so much. Bloomberg News US semi conductor and networking reporter Ian King. He is out there in our San Francisco bure. Be sure to check out his story. All of his reporting really so informed on the semi space. You can find it at Bloomberg dot Com meantime and video shares still.

Speaker 3

Up, Yeah, three point nine percent as we speak. If you check out on the Bloomberg Terminal, it's the highest going back all the way to July tenth, where it was out one hundred and thirty four dollars and ninety cents.

Speaker 2

Anian mentioned Samsung, and you know one of the things that we love to do, because they were kind of a little like sorry that it was so weak or some problems. But I look at the supply chain function. Apples their number one customer, Best buys their second, Dell is their third, so Apple about six point seven percent of their revenues for Samsung. So it just makes you think about be going on or whatever.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen on Apple car Play and then Bright Auto with a Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 3

Yeah brings us to today's at Bloomberg.

Speaker 5

A big take.

Speaker 3

It's a story that our editorial team deems is a must read. Also a must read on the Bloomberg termin all. The story I most read on the Bloomberg Terminal, The story takes us to.

Speaker 6

Two US towns.

Speaker 3

They sit on opposite sides of a year's long tariff battle over a mundane product. The global economy needs to keep moving, Carol, we're talking about shipping container trailers.

Speaker 2

I love these stories and they're often done by our Sean Donnan because it takes us across the country, tells us a story, It helps explain so much. Let's head to our Washington DC bureau for more. That's where we do find Sean Donnan. He's Bloomberg New senior economics writer. I'm Sean. You do you take us across America? Tell stories, explain our economy. Tell us about Pittsview, Alabama, and Poria, Virginia. Why you are writing about these two areas.

Speaker 5

Yeah, thanks so much, Carol.

Speaker 7

Look it often when we talk about tariffs, we think about who pays for them, or we get into a debate about whether or not they're good economic policy for a country. And one of the reasons economists actually hate tariffs generally is that they create these kind of messy fights between interest groups oftentimes, and that's really what we want. We set out to kind of look at here, and

there is this mundane product it's incredibly important. It's the thing that carries those shipping containers that has zipping by you on I ninety five or other interstates, and those chassis. At one point during the pandemic, when we had all that supply chain logjams, they were actually in short supply.

Speaker 5

There was actually a shortage of them.

Speaker 7

And part of the reason for that, and a lot of the ports were arguing, was these tariffs that had gone into place that suddenly had stopped the imports of these trailer shafts seeds that were predominantly made in China

at the time and by a company called CIMC. And so these tariffs went into place in twenty twenty one after they were lobbied for in twenty twenty by US producers, and we look at what came next, and really what happened there is that CIMC, this big Chinese company, tried to set up production in the US in California and in the tiny town in Poria, Virginia, just near the North Carolina border in the southern part of the state, and wanted to start doing what Donald Trump and other

advocates of tariffs would argue they'd like to see foreign investors do, and that has created some factory jobs in the United States. We've also, at the same time, you had in Pitts U, Alabama, an outfit called Pitt's Enterprises, which was one of the US companies that had lobbied for these tariffs to.

Speaker 5

Go into place on CIMC.

Speaker 7

It spotted an opportunity in the shortage of trailer chassis at the time and decided it was going to import some from Vietnam. Well, those chassis actually turned out to be largely Chinese customs imposed the tariffs on these Pits Enterprise trailers that Pitts Enterprise had lobbied for in.

Speaker 5

The first place. Wait a second, keep out imports. It's this messy fight.

Speaker 7

And that's the whole point really here, is that when you get these tariffs in place, you get these messy fights that come out of them. You get these unintended consequences. What I didn't tell you is that CIMC was then hit with its own investigation about its shassis and.

Speaker 5

Where they were coming from.

Speaker 7

That shut down production there for more than a year and led to a couple hundred people losing their jobs. US workers losing their jobs. So you know, it's a messy fights all about undintended consequences and where kind of tariffs get you. It's complicated, but that's kind of the point.

Speaker 2

I'm just going to say, the global supply chain, it's messy, it's complicated. Like that's one of the big takeaways too.

Speaker 3

And just a reminder, so net net shawan in the end, are these towns better off now than they were pre tariff? Or these companies better off now? Is this company better off now than it was pre tariff? Or if the executives could go back in time, would they not have lobbied for it?

Speaker 7

So look, I think the net result potentially for the United States when all the dust clears, is some more manufacturing jobs in the United States. But we're talking about a couple hundred, maybe a few thousand manufacturing jobs. And we're also talking about higher prices for trailer chassis. And this is going to get us back into who pays the cost of tariffs that you know, those higher cost schassis mean that it's more expensive to transport goods around

the United States, which means higher prices for consumers. It should be said that right now in Emporia, Virginia, they're just starting to get back to work. CIMC was eventually cleared and they're ramping up production in Pittsview, Alabama. They're still facing a terror bill in the tens of millions for these trailers that they imported, and they've lost something like two hundred and fifty million dollars in revenues and they're still fighting this in federal court.

Speaker 5

And if they lose that fight.

Speaker 7

That's not going to be good for the company or the people of Pittsview, Alabama.

Speaker 3

One thing that we've also seen sean in the wake of tariffs being slapped on Chinese companies during the Trump administration those tariffs largely being kept in place by the Biden administration is the surgeon manufacturing over the border in Mexico. So not necessarily bringing jobs to the US is it was intended, but Chinese companies setting up shop just over the border and then importing certain goods across the border to get around those tariffs.

Speaker 7

Yeah, and look that is we're seeing that in all sorts of different sectors. That's one of the big concerns that Donald Trump talks about when he talks about Chinese evs, that they will start producing them in Mexico and avoid tariffs and coming into the US that way. In the case of trailer sh sassis, there has been some production that's ramped up in Mexico apparently, and some of the US producers are taking advantage of cheaper production in Mexico.

It's you know, it's a complicated picture, and I hate to keep saying that, but part you know, one of the reasons it's complicated as well is that we've seen a bit of a trucking recession here in the United States, and things have slowed down a bit in terms of the movement of goods. There may be too many chassis that were produced or brought in at one point, so that may be a bit of a glut of chassis,

but that can all turn around very quickly. One of the things we heard in the lead up to this port strike, for example recently, is that people were again worried that there might be a shortage of chassis because when shipping containers sit around, they usually have to sit on some wheels, and that means that those chassis can't be used to move other shipping containers, and that means all of a sudden you get a shortage and more logjam.

Speaker 2

You know, one of the things you reference to the idea of you know, being a as a manufacturer here in the United States or US based manufacturer, you know, who do tap into the global supply change on is that being able to say made in America and the rules around that. I guess what I want to pose to you, and I'm not sure forgive me if you've got an answer, But I mean, does it matter to the American public? I will say increasingly, I am looking at where things are made. But I just wonder for

most Americans doesn't matter? Do they care? You know, they might say, if you were asked, you know, would you rather support American jobs versus non American jobs? And people might say yes. But would you rather pay for cheaper goods that are made outside of America than others? They probably would say yes to that too. So I'm just curious if this issue matters.

Speaker 5

Yeah.

Speaker 7

Look, I think the answer is all over the place on this, and I think surveys are all over the place on this. You'll often see consumer surveys. Let's say, people are willing to spend more if a product is American made, But then you know, people go to Best Buy, go to Walmart buy a new TV, and that TV typically is not made in the United States. It's typically made in China or somewhere in Asia. And it is that cheap, and it is that big for that cheap

because it was made overseas. So I think on a Sunday, when people sit down to watch the NFL, they don't necessarily care about how where that TV was made. They care about what a bargain they got and how big that TV is and how big those players look on their living room wall.

Speaker 3

Just thirty seconds. The workers though, they.

Speaker 7

Care, Yeah, the workers, the workers absolutely care. But look one of the stories of and it's totally true that we saw a real de industrialization in parts of America in the early two thousands as a result of these jobs going overseas. But the reality, unfortunately, is that the number of workers who lost their jobs is much smaller than the number of consumers who have benefited from.

Speaker 5

Broader, cheaper prices.

Speaker 7

We are having a huge political debate about this because the question is where the balance sits.

Speaker 2

Well, another story from you with a snapshot of America to tell a larger story that is certainly part of our political narrative. Shawandan and Bloomberg New Senior Economics writer on Today's Bloomberg Big Take.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple car Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 3

It is time for another edition of Bloomberg Plugged In. It's your weekly look at EV's Carol. You'll remember on Friday. Yes, Rivian was one of my decliners during simulcast. Shares taw close to nine percent. The company said it had to drastically cut its twenty twenty four production targets over yet another supply chain hiccup. Analysts Ed Ludlow and Kyle porter Wright were puzzled as to why Rivian had to do such a thing. Ed love thoughs co host of Bloomberg

Technology on Bloomberg TV. He joins us from our San Francisco bureau. You and Kyle got to the bottom of this d What happened here with the supply chain hiccup?

Speaker 8

Something's been going on at Rivian for a little while, and we've been kind of drip fed information, and by Friday we knew it was something to do with the electric vehicle motor electric motor that they make. It was a specific single part for a single supplier, and we just got to the bottom of it. The single part is copper windings, and we can talk about what copper

windings are. The single supplier, according to sources, is Essex for Akawa, and the backstory to how they ended up in this pickle is quite a backstory indeed.

Speaker 2

All right, so how did they get here?

Speaker 8

Okay, let's do this as simply as we can. Okay, Earlier this year, Rivian made a mistake. They did a booboo and they miscalculated how much copper they would need for the electric motors that they made in house. So it was an error. They phoned up their supplier, for want of a better explanation, Essex, and were like, this is how much we need and they got it wrong. So Essex has other customers. They sell copper wire to all kinds of ev makers, and so they just got

on with their business. They assigned their machines that make the copper windings to other people. So when Rivian realized its mistake. It went back to Essex was like, yeah, we got it wrong. We need lots more. Can you do that? And they were like no, no, we can't. And so Rivian literally just learned the hard way that you can't do that, and now it's left unable to make its motors, and without its motors, it can't build its cars.

Speaker 3

Copper windings ed, are these found in all electric motors? Are we familiar with some of we've taken apart, like we had electric electric cars when we were kids, like remote control cars exactly.

Speaker 8

The very serious part of this story is that it's the absolute crucial part of the electric motor. In simple terms, the copper windings go on to the rotor around the metal core of a motor. You run an electric current through it. It makes an electro mechanical field and that's what spins the motor. And if you were to tear a motor apart, you would be familiar with the image. You just basically see lots of copper wire wound round

and round around around. Every ev has a motor in it that has that kind of copper And so you know, a lot of people ask me a lot of questions along the way, even after we broke the story, like, how could this possibly have happened? Because this is the absolute integral part of an EV motor that Rivian makes itself, and a part of it, of course, is the risk of only having one supplier in that domain.

Speaker 2

It's yes, so well, I guess it says to me. Though then internally the company has to make sure it gets it right right, Like there are people who are in charge of figuring out, okay, what's our production demands? Our needs to make sure that there is no next And we know companies are lean and mean and just in time inventory, we talk about it all the time and so on and so forth. But if it's so crucial and there's only one place they can get it,

they've got to get it right. So does this say something about Rivian's internal management of the company?

Speaker 8

Yeah, and something really? Does you know? Rivian made a mistake right, And they've been a really sexy company to read about to cover people so interested, But they are a startup right in experience, most OEMs or sorry automakers would have several suppliers, but if you're only building a few cars a year, you don't need them, So they just had one, and yeah, they learned the hard way.

Speaker 3

Are their companies affected by this shortage?

Speaker 8

But this is the thing, this isn't an industry problem. This is a Rivian problem calculated right right, And you know again, with time and volume and experience, you know Rivian will learn its lesson. And they did actually try to sort of triage this. They went and found backup supplier that could have provided the copper. But of course what did the supplier say, Oh, sure you can have the copper, but we'll charge you this amount for it. And it's just not economical for Rivian.

Speaker 2

So when do they get back on track? When does this kind of well figure its way out here?

Speaker 8

Unfortunately, I don't have an answer for you. What the official line from Rivian is is that the problem is more acute than it was earlier in the quarter, and it's ongoing. So there isn't an answer. They're just going to have to wait until Essex is able to provide them. But what we know is the original production target was fifty seven thousand EV's this year, it's now a range of forty seven to forty nine thousand. In other words, they're cutting the target by ten thousand vehicles.

Speaker 3

Where's what's being cut? Is it the Amazon vans? Is it the r one good question?

Speaker 5

The suv? Is it the pick up? What is it?

Speaker 1

Here?

Speaker 8

Is why it's such a pickle. The enduro motor is common to all three lines, so they're shutting down the whole.

Speaker 3

Place, which which you know, ostensibly is an advantage to the company that it would have, you know, the same parts, the same technology in all of its products. But in this case enough so much ed Yes.

Speaker 8

In this case, the commonality means that if they can't build any enduro motors, they won't have enough. I guess it's also like they have They probably have some copper, but they don't have it at the volume that they need to meet their original targets. They could be selective, I suppose, and I guess, you know, give preferential treatment to the consumer cars rather than the van that they

make for Amazon. But again, it's kind of like either you call it teething problems inexperience, or you call it embarrassing and a blunder. But it's not good.

Speaker 2

Can they recover? Do we have any good guess yet on that?

Speaker 8

You know that the cell side worry is that this this bleeds into next year. You know, there's no guarantee that Essex can kind of turn around and fix the issue in any stated or given timeframe. What the outstanding question is is Rivian had self declared that they were going to achieve this milestone of a gross profit in the final three months of this year, and psychologically that probably would have been great, particularly for the stock, and there is a lot of doubt now that that will happen.

Speaker 2

Sounds pretty rough. I feel like it's been a little bit rough too for Elon when it comes to the Robotaxi. But he's got a big wish. I see anybody who can say pickle I can be a little spicy. So having said that, this is supposed to be a big week or what are we expecting when it comes to the robotaxi.

Speaker 8

Yeah, I mean similar to what we discussed the other week. I think this is going to be one of the bigger weeks in my career covering technology. Either Tesla is going to deliver something or they're not and not deliver in terms of handover to someone deliver to the market's expectations. Elon has been talking about a vehicle that can drive itself for many years and the event on Thursday night,

Build we Robot is what it's being called. You know what the minimum expectation is is that we see a purpose designed ROBOTAXI called Cybercab that is somehow unique and evidence that they're moving toward a world where Tesla doesn't sell cars to consumers. Tesla operates a proprietary ride hailing app app where there are a fleet of robotaxis on there. And it's really hard still to see the jump.

Speaker 3

What happens on Thursday, ed I are you going to be there?

Speaker 8

Okay?

Speaker 3

So do and other things.

Speaker 8

You're pretty busy, so I am going to be in the greater Los Angeles area. I'll say that our colleagues at Bloomberg an EF Andrew Grant really like him. He's just such a smart analyst, has put out his preview. All I'll say is that Dana Hole and I will put out some thoughts and some reporting ahead of the then soon and you guys, maybe we can check in after we put that out.

Speaker 5

Are we going to see you this?

Speaker 8

You can see me where I'll be standing and coming to you live from. I think very much remains up in the.

Speaker 3

Air, all right, Yeah, it's just h enough hints, I think. But you know the reason I ask is we'll be in the greater Los Angeles area as well.

Speaker 5

You will, so I don't know.

Speaker 3

So we'll see if we'll see if we see ed.

Speaker 2

Are we going to hear anything else? Are we going to hear anything though, on anything else within the Tesla universe chargers for example? Like is there other stuff that much?

Speaker 4

You know?

Speaker 8

My feeling is that Elon's going to try and tell a story that ties all of the arms of the business together. So I wouldn't be surprised if we hear about the Optimus robot program, their work on artificial intelligence generally speaking, and then how all of that feeds into a future where they're building robotaxis in service of this

ride hailing service. That's going to be really interesting because now investors are going to have to say, Okay, how long are we going to be waited on this for and what's the funding of that dream going to look like?

Speaker 2

Or if there's a tim robot in his future?

Speaker 5

Yeah, I wish can it do dishes?

Speaker 3

That's all I want?

Speaker 2

All right, Listen, We're gonna look forward to your reporting, no doubt about that. Fun stuff. Wherever you may be or whatever you may be doing, we will certainly be checking out all right, ed, Thank you so much, Be well ed. Ludlow Safe Travels, co host of Bloomberg Technology on Bloomberg Television, joining us from San Francisco. Catch him and Caroline Hide every day at eleven am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg Television. The latest and greatest when it

comes to all things technology. M brother Marc a journal How about you let me drive?

Speaker 5

No, no, no, no, who's going to drive?

Speaker 1

Honey? Please do gravels.

Speaker 6

Let's wat I want to drive. It's a good question. This is the drive to the clone long to music well.

Speaker 1

On Bluebirg Radio.

Speaker 3

TikTok everyone, it is that time. It is look at that less than twenty minutes ago to the close of trading here in New York City. Let's get to it. We got Larry Patowski with US, managing partner and portfolio manager over at Goodhaven Capital Management, joining us from Millbourne, New Jersey.

Speaker 5

Larry, how are you?

Speaker 6

I am well?

Speaker 5

Tim? How are you?

Speaker 3

We're doing pretty well? A little bit of a sell off yesterday and a little bit of a recovery today.

Speaker 5

Rates.

Speaker 3

We talked about him earlier today with Michael McKenzie tenure back up that four percent important milestone, important marker. How are you thinking about the environment right now?

Speaker 9

You know, hey, Carol Tim, it seems to me that we've got an environment where inflation has come down dramatically, that has reduced interest rates and seems to be considering reducing them further.

Speaker 6

The economy scene, Okay. You know, in early twenty twenty.

Speaker 9

Three of Bloomberg Apollo survey, seventy percent of the respondent said they expected a recession within twelve months. And that's not to say that I predicted differently. It's just to be a reminded about hard it is to make accurate macro calls with some level of frequency. So if we seem to be in a reasonably functioning economy, we will continue here at good Haven and just turn over rocks and look for individual situations that we think we have an agent understanding.

Speaker 8

Yeah.

Speaker 2

You know who also seems to be turning over lots of rocks or husband for a while is JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon. And I'm kind of obsessed with this because I think a lot about when it comes larry to inflation, some of the macro factors that are impacting our environment and have been for a while, and whether it's the pushback on globalization. He talked specifically about longer term trends

fiscal deficits in the US and around the world. He said, the green economy is inflationary, demographics are inary, and so this plays into what he thinks that you know, we'll see higher interest rates maybe being with us for a while, and I do wonder if there are some things that are going on that change the rate environment again, you know, it goes back to that new normal. Is that Does that factor in for you at all?

Speaker 6

Not terribly.

Speaker 9

I mean, I certainly pay attention to anything mister Diamond has to say.

Speaker 6

Look, we're at ten four percent.

Speaker 9

I mean, that may be a dramatically higher level than we've been used to over the last seven eight nine years up until recently, but it's it's hardly a dramatically higher than normal rate if you go back a bunch of decades.

Speaker 6

So maybe we all got a little bit.

Speaker 9

Used to rates being fictitiously low and maybe expecting them to go dramatically lower as not.

Speaker 6

The right call.

Speaker 9

But for us here, you know, we don't think we have a great edge in trying to make those predictions. But I don't think there's anything wrong, you know, with assuming that what we're looking at as far as a interest rate outlook and you know, inflation a bit above two percent maybe where we are for a while. And I don't think that is a dysfunctional place to be. And we'll just again keep turning over rocks with that is what seems like the backdrop.

Speaker 3

Okay, we want to get to a stock pick that you have. We love talking names. Uh xor e XO is the ticker? Why do you love it?

Speaker 2

Based in Amsterdam? Right, it's it doesn't. I couldn't find am I wrong. I couldn't find an A dr no.

Speaker 6

No a DRSKA.

Speaker 9

I mean there is a five letter symbol which is you know Nasdeka has created. But you know, Tim, I got the hint from Carol that I better show up with a cheap stock that is enough.

Speaker 6

A lot for the year and has a good story. So the pressure's on.

Speaker 9

It's it's kind of stressful, but I'll do my best.

Speaker 2

We will see, we will see continued.

Speaker 3

Please, you got a tough crowd there.

Speaker 6

We'll see that even the preamble wasn't even good enough, all right.

Speaker 9

Well, look, XOR is the holding company controlled by the Agnelly family run by John Elkin, which owns a huge amount of Ferrari Stalantish and also Phillips. The track record they're going by the numbers they have put out recently, is dramatically better than the MSCI over the period they just announced from you know nine through the middle of

twenty four. It is a holding company the trades that you know, let's call it an excess of a forty percent discount NAV And most importantly, the NAV has dramatically outperformed the benchmark they think is an appropriate benchmark over the you know since nine, So what's not to like?

And they have been repurchasing shares recently. And the fact that you know, Carol had a little trouble finding an ADR means maybe it's not even though it's a twenty one billion euro market cat, maybe it's not quite as discovered as it should be.

Speaker 2

And is it forgive me, it's not new to market or it is new to market. It is not new to okay, all right, so maybe this has just.

Speaker 6

Been around for a while.

Speaker 9

I think last year's shareholder letter by mister Elkin was particularly clear. And I think they've articulated the game plan, which is too over time, you know, do a little bit more. You know, in areas such as healthcare, as luxury, and as such as luxury.

Speaker 6

Ferrari is the biggest holding by far.

Speaker 9

The interesting thing about Ferrari is you saw over the recent couple of months a lot of kind of luxury companies run into a tough time.

Speaker 6

But no, no tough times at Ferrari.

Speaker 3

Yeah, tough times for people who don't have Ferraris.

Speaker 4

That's a good point.

Speaker 5

Yeah.

Speaker 6

I don't have one either, Tam.

Speaker 5

I'm with you, all right.

Speaker 6

I mean I don't admire the brand.

Speaker 5

I don't have that.

Speaker 6

I'd be too nervous. I'd be too nervous looking for a parking spot.

Speaker 5

You know.

Speaker 2

I do wonder too that. You know, we've had a lot of guests I feel like over the last six to twelve months talking more about opportunity these overseas. Are you finding interesting opportunities overseas at this point or is it still you know us because there's a little bit more maybe clarity about the outlook here.

Speaker 6

Well, it's an interesting question, Carol. You know, the good Haven Fun.

Speaker 9

We do have some non US holdings, you know, we have Xor, We have an amazing Canadian company called Terra Vest, and we do cast a wide net.

Speaker 6

We have a lot of flexibility.

Speaker 9

We do when we look outside of the US want to ask ourselves, wait, do we really understand the brand? Do we really understand how it resonates in the local market. But with Xor, though it's it's really the heritage is Italian, it's based in Amsterdam. Now it's traded you know in the urinext you know, Ferrari is the biggest holding, then Stilantis, which was the combination of Jeep.

Speaker 6

And Pougeot, and then Phillips.

Speaker 9

You know, I don't think it necessarily requires understanding some particular local habit or local market.

Speaker 6

These are these are mostly global fans.

Speaker 9

And you know, at our Canadian company, Travist, it's a you know, Canadian and North American, uh, you know marketplace and products We believe we understand.

Speaker 6

But it is interesting.

Speaker 9

I think it's fair to say that non US markets in aggregate may provide more opportunities. But you know, we take it very carefully when we go outside of our own turf. But we you know, we're happy with what we found in some of these markets.

Speaker 2

All right, good stuff. Sorry, I'm so tough.

Speaker 3

She's tough, tough crowd.

Speaker 6

Okay, well, how'd I do? Cal You did?

Speaker 5

Okay?

Speaker 6

You did?

Speaker 2

Okay, Larry, you.

Speaker 3

Can come back okay.

Speaker 5

I mean if you.

Speaker 2

Come back, that usually means you did.

Speaker 3

Okay, You're welcome back.

Speaker 2

All right, Be well, stay safe. Lara Pitkowski, Managing director, Imagining Partner I should say, and portfolio manager good Haven Capital Manage It joining us from Millburgh, New Jersey. I hear that a lot that I'm tough. It's not about I have a big heart, but I'm a little tough. All right, everybody's still.

Speaker 3

Go to I'm not saying anything, you know.

Speaker 5

Please.

Speaker 1

Is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you hit your podcast. Listen live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Easter on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal

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