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Morgan Stanley Shift Bears Fruit, Momentum Slows

Oct 16, 202435 min
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Episode description

Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Global Banks Analyst Alison Williams explains why Morgan Stanley may keep its tilt toward wealth and asset management under CEO Ted Pick, continuing the shift made by predecessor James Gorman. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Brad Stone provides the details of his Businessweek Magazine story US Presidential Candidates Show Little Appetite for Big Ideas. Tom McGee, President of ICSC, discusses the firm's 2024 Holiday Shopping Intentions Survey. And we Drive to the Close with Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO at Laffer Tengler Investments.
Hosts: Tim Stenovec and Katie Greifeld. Producer: Paul Brennan.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2

This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebek from Bloomberg Radio.

Speaker 3

Here's a Morgan Stanley up six point seven percent right now, best day in just about four years. Also at a record right now, Morgan Stanley traders and bankers joining the rest of their Wall Street rivals in posting better than expected revenue. It fueled a thirty two percent profit surge for the third quarter, cent shares up the most in

close to four years. Here's Morgan Stanley's CEO, Ted Pic earlier today in an interview on Bloomberg to TV speaking to Shanoli Basek about his view of the economy and the consumer.

Speaker 4

We don't know what the policy reaction function is actually going to be off of what has been said, and for that reason, I think you have a number of investors that are actually just sort of continuing to plow forward on the view that the economy is in pretty good shape and the consumers and corporates are in great shape, so that when there is an election outcome, once there's a sense for whether new policy will actually get affected, then they can have a reaction.

Speaker 3

I couldn't help, but notice he said when there is an election outcome, a lot of folks saying it won't necessarily happen. The day after three weeks from yesterday, we got with us Alison Williams Bloomberg Intelligence, a senior at Global Banks analyst. She joins us here in the Bloomberg Business Week studio. Alison quite a few highlights from this report. Revenue from the trading business rising thirteen percent, the wealth

unit also standing out higher than analyst expectations. What worked so well for more than Stanley this quarter.

Speaker 5

I think it was the rebound in well flows that investors are excited about. But to be clear, the business is hitting on all cylinders, so there was a broadbeat across the bank. The institution was the biggest of the beat this quarter. Equity trading very strong. They're tilted more towards the business. It was strong for everybody, but they also had a little bit better growth there. Debt fees also sort of leading the way on the feat side of things. But the wealth business really is the core

of their business. They've shifted more towards the wealth and asset management over the years, especially under Gorman. And they had sort of a little bit of a short blow and flows last quarter, and so I think really seeing the strength of the rebound is giving investors some confidence in those shares.

Speaker 6

Let's talk about the shares though, because Morgan Stanley shares up about six point seven percent at the moment. At one point they were up by more than eight percent currently, the biggest rally since December twenty twenty three, when it was up by eight percent. That was the biggest rally since November twenty twenty, which was quite a time in markets, to say the least.

Speaker 3

Yeah, that vaccine, right.

Speaker 6

Yes, exactly, that was COVID. That was well. I think it was on Monday too. Yeah, me too. You were here, you'd been here for like a month. Yeah, anyway, Allison, like you said.

Speaker 5

And hitting new highs. Yeah, I think, you know, in general, this earning season, you know, the stock reactions have been very strong. I think investors are getting excited about the capital market story. I think trading we had so many years where it was underwhelming, the pandemic huge surge, and since then we've really seen trading proved to be resilient this year. It's equities that's outperforming, but we're within a

historically high range. And then on the investment banking fee side, that super strong year twenty twenty one, all kinds of records a week since, but now starting to see some signs of life, and so investors are getting excited about both of those things.

Speaker 6

I hear what you're saying, but is it that good. I hear what you're saying that they beat across the board, firing on all cylinders. Is it worth a six point seven percent reaction in the shares?

Speaker 5

So again, we don't comment, We don't recommend stocks. I just have to be careful about yes.

Speaker 6

I mean not asking for recommendation, but I mean.

Speaker 5

If if I was an investor, I guess the way I would think about it is it's a super strong market. I think about both Morgan, Stanle and Goldman as riding a strong tailwind. So they have strengths, they're leveraging those strengths, but there is a very strong tail win from the market. And the view going forward is do you think that momentum continues? We see momentum in the near term, but I think you have to think about sort of the

weeks and months ahead. Morgan Stanley again has some pretty aggressive targets out there for AUM growth set out by Gorman. The wealth management pretext margin. When markets are up, revenue is up, margins are good. But they you know Ted Pick had lowered that a little bit in the near term. You know, will he raise that back up towards the higher thirty percent goal and will Morgan Stanley marched towards that overtime? I think that's the long term question for Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 3

Can you help me and our listeners and viewers understand the asset management business, the wealth management business, because we hear over and over again in the long term it's difficult to be just investing in indices. I know it's, you know, kind of sacrilegious to actually say that, but if you look at the research.

Speaker 6

You're tilling a dangerous pass it points.

Speaker 3

You know, you see that time and time again, Alison. Yet you still have these banks attracting very smart money for a product that charges a fee. What what are investor what do clients get and what are investors getting out of that?

Speaker 5

So so I'll say a few things. So Morgan Stanley's investment management business I know pretty well since I used to work there. The strength there is alternatives and fixed income, where you definitely do see good returns. Their equities business is actually very focused on active you know, having a very strong active share and concentrated bit so it can

be more volatile. So I think within you know, the argument about you know, all when you look across and the you know, all managers aren't going to be beat the index, right, But I think if you are buying an active fund, you do want to buy something that is making bets right, not just hugging the benchmark, as

you say. And so I think that's what we've seen in the industry over the last you know, decade or so, you know, perhaps longer, but accelerating is Look, I can pay for I can get beta cheap, I can get you know, get those cheap funds, those index funds, but for alpha, right, you are seeing flows and you see it also on the hedge fund side as well. The hedge funds that can deliver consistently better returns are the ones that are getting assets and and you know, turning

to the wealth side, of things. I would also say that business has really evolved over time, and so you know, years ago, you know, maybe at the turn of the century, if you will, it was about fund of the month, or this will make you this stock will make you the most money, this fund will make you the most money. But the industry, I think is really focusing on client needs, client investments, and so that's really been a shift.

Speaker 3

Thirty seconds now that the big banks are wrapped up, we heard Ted Pick say that consumers and corporates are in great shape. How would you characterize, Alison, sort of the holistic view that we got from the big banks over the last week or so in terms of commentary on the consumer good place.

Speaker 5

I think it's very good. And I think that's another reason why you're seeing some strong reactions because things, you know, healthy credit came in healthy, right, that's what people are concerned about. And if rates are coming down and we are tilting more towards our software ending scenario, that's very good for the banks.

Speaker 3

Alison Williams, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Global Banks Analysts, joining us here in the Bloomberg Business Week Studio.

Speaker 2

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Podcast Catch US Live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen on Apple card Play and then brout Auto with a Bloomberg Business act or wants us Live on YouTube.

Speaker 3

The Katie Graidbelt. Think back to recent history of presidential campaigns. Barack Obama two thousand and eight.

Speaker 6

I remember him.

Speaker 3

You think you were in high school?

Speaker 5

Yeah, this point I was.

Speaker 3

He was pitching back then, a complete overhaul of the US health insurance system. Now we have Obamacare. Four years later, Mitt Romney, he had the elaborate set of proposals for reigniting economic growth after the Great Recession. Hillary Clinton in twenty sixteen. She had the position papers on everything from raising the federal minimum wage to establishing paid family leave.

This all from a recent column by Bloomberg Business Week editor Brad Stone, who writes that this presidential cycle has been largely devoid of such ideological ambition. He argues that it seems like we've lost our appetite for big ideas. In many respects, it's been the ozembic election. Brad not just the editor of Bloomberg Business He's also the author of four books, including New York Times bestseller Amazon un Bound.

Jeff Bezos and the invention of a global empire. He joins us here in the Bloomberg BusinessWeek studio, Brad, what are we getting from the presidential campaigns this time around? If we're not getting the big ideas?

Speaker 7

Yeah, thanks, Tim. Look, I don't want to minimize it. I mean, Kamala Harris. You know, the campaign's gotten off to a late start. We've gotten targeted proposals aimed at helping parents, renters, first time home buyers. You know, I don't want to minimize former President Donald Trump's proposals. You know, those tariffs would be a significant change to our economy.

But when you look back at the kinds of sweeping economic proposals that Barack Obama was making, or you know, Bill Clinton or the first George Bush, you know, really big ideas, and you wonder why it's not happening this cycle. And I think there are two reasons.

Speaker 2

You know.

Speaker 7

The first is tactical. I mean, this is it may not be as much of an ideological battle, but it is certainly a battle between parties, personalities, kinds of sides of the American divide, and both sides see the other success as an existential threat and are determined to win, and winning right now involves cobbling together a coalition. It's why Trump is talking to all women today on Fox News and the vice presidents doing a town hall with Fox News. This is all about seven states and swing voters.

And then the second question is really what can you get Can you get anything sweeping done today in a bitterly divided Congress that is devoted to the politics of opposition right.

Speaker 6

Recent history would suggest no to that last question, and you hedged yourself nicely said you don't want to minimize this, And my pushback would be something that you touch on in the piece. You have Donald Trump proposing nineteenth century style tariffs? Is that not a big idea?

Speaker 7

No, it's I think in its way, you know, it is a big idea. It's certainly dramatic. I mean, there are real open questions about how kind of serious he is about it and how much he can get done. You know. But in terms of like identifying the gaps in the in the American safety net, the you know, the institutional challenges we have, the existential threats to the country, to the world, like climate change, like solving the ballooning deficit.

You know, neither candidate has really addressed the kind of you know, sweeping problems that we have, in part because those problems often involve big dose or reality and a heavy dose of bad news, and they're both trying to, as I said, cobble together a winning coalition and prevent the other side from taking power.

Speaker 3

I wonder if this changes after the election, and if somehow, whoever wins the election is given a dose of reality by maybe some sort of crisis or bond vigilantes.

Speaker 7

What's more than that? I mean, in the old I'm old enough to remember where winning presidents had a honeymoon period where you could talk about the first hundred days, where even if you didn't have both branches of Congress, you came out of an electoral victory smelling like a winner, and the other party kind of fell into line and let you pass an element of your agenda. I don't

think that's going to happen. I think the dose of reality is coming from you know, we go back to what Mitch McConnell said in two thousand and eight when Barack Obama won, and he said our mission is to make him a one term president, and that those are the politics that we have right now and until we move beyond the politics of opposition, I think we're and this is the point of the piece, that our presidential candidates, our national leaders are going to have to be a

little limited in their ambition so that they don't end up overpromising and under delivering.

Speaker 6

Well also write that it's a vicious circle. And I mean, I was going to do you think that it's realistic that we do get to that place where we do move beyond this cycle or whatever you want to call or do you think that it's actually built into the way that we elect presidents for this dynamic to unfold.

Speaker 7

This is where Katie, I'm trying Matt to come off as like the cynical old guy. I mean, I think, you know, we need to maybe flush some of the current politics out of our system. Maybe that's through decisive defeats of one side or the other. I think the parties have to come to a kind of reckoning about putting country before party, and I think it's going to require superlative leader who can get beyond the politics of opposition and the feeling that the other side success is

in existential danger. And whether either one of those two candidates are that superlative leader who can grow beyond you know, our current situation, our current paralysis. I think it remains to be seen.

Speaker 3

Help me be not cynical about this, because I'm thinking to myself, Okay, I don't see this improving in a world where, uh, you know, California has two senators and Wyoming has two senators. So essentially the representation that somebody in Wyoming has in the Senate is essentially much greater than somebody in you know, your state of California, given the population differences, but the structure of the government and the fact that it only matters in seven states when

it comes to the presidential election. It's it's pretty tough.

Speaker 2

Out there, it is.

Speaker 7

And I think it also a major problem is that some of our institutions, you know that used to unify this country, local media, local parties, where parties you know, by county by state would differ from the national party. Those intermediating institutions are also on the decline, and trust in them has never been as low. So, you know,

I agree, I agree with you. It's hard not to It's hard to find reasons for optimism, you know it with the current state of affairs the kind of institutional change that I am talking about a little bit in the piece, getting rid of the filibuster, getting rid of the electoral college. Frankly, those it's very difficult to see how we achieve those. Those are such I.

Speaker 3

Can see one group wanting to get rid of it.

Speaker 7

Yeah, they seem a little third rail right now in our current politics.

Speaker 6

Well, talk about I mean, we were talking about Congress earlier and how it's hard to get anything done. We did get certain things done. You think about the Inflation Reduction Act for example. I mean I speak to a lot of executives and a lot of them have cited to me that that has been a big help for them. And then I mean, we could get into the Chips Act, but with what's going on with Intel, that's a different conversation.

But in any case, I mean, talk to us about how that can still happen even with this gridlock exactly.

Speaker 7

And the President has used the budget reconciliation process, and there are some strict rules on what you can get done through that process and then with a simple majority, and you know, recently the vice president has cast the

deciding vote. But they do have to be budget related items and so you know, when you talk about things like raising the minimum wage, I mean, it's it's almost ridiculous that in decades it hasn't been accomplished, or you know, universal childcare or parental leave, the things where this country now badly lags most of the developing world. You can't get it done because it would require a filibuster proof majority in the Senate. So there is this tiny little

loophole to kind of get things done. And the Biden administer and executive orders are another way. And obviously when Donald Trump was in office he took full advantage of that as as President Biden. But you know those are like the mechanisms that are left at the disposal of the current and soon the new president, and you know those are weak institutional levers.

Speaker 3

One thing I wanted to get your thoughts on as the way that the candidates are are leaning into media in these last two and a half close to three weeks. Yesterday, Donald Trump sat down with John mcklelthwaite, editor in chief at Bloomberg News, at the Economic Club of Chicago. Here's what he had to say about the Federal Reserve.

Speaker 8

I think it's the greatest job in government. You show up to the office once a month and you say, let's say flip a Cole, and everybody talks about you like your god, Oh, what will we do? I think that if you are a very good president with good sense, you should be able to at least talk to him. I don't say make the decision at all.

Speaker 3

There you have Donald Trump yesterday with John Nickolthwaite, the editor in chief of Bloomberg News, out there at the Economic Club of Chicago. Brad, I want to get your thoughts on this because we heard a lot from Donald Trump yesterday. You sat down with him over the summer for Bloomberg BusinessWeek cover story. Who was the Donald Trump that you saw yesterday in that interview.

Speaker 7

Well, first of all, it sounds like Donald Trump wants to be the Fed chief. He treats him so well.

Speaker 2

Look, we spoke to.

Speaker 7

Donald Trump three long months ago, before two assassination attempts, when he was still running against President Biden. He was feeling pretty good. He was more disciplined than he usually is.

Speaker 2

Back then.

Speaker 7

He was in a lot of ways introducing his economic plan. You know, some parts of that plan remain unchanged. He does differ on the details the extent of his corporate tax cut, the extent of tariffs on China and the rest of the world. A lot of the elements remain the same. You know what's different now is, in his

own unique way, he's trying to expand his coalition. You know, he's there in Chicago, he was in Detroit speaking to the Economic Club there, you know, trying to, yeah, expand his support in the Midwest, where which he sees is crucial to his victory. But you know, certain things he can't change, right. He actually was very civil back in July. He really did, in a very strange way, you know,

lash out to this interview or our boss yesterday. It's you know, I think again, like destabilizing or diminishing those intermediating institutions, diminishing people's trust in them, as a way to raise himself up.

Speaker 3

Brad, We're gonna have to leave it there. Bradstone the editor of Bloomberg Business Week. If you never want to miss a Bloomberg Business Week story, become a subscriber today. You'll unlock deep reporting and analysis from reporters around the world, including unlimited access to BusinessWeek. Check out our offers right now on Bloomberg dot com slash subscribe.

Speaker 2

Now you're listening to Bloomberg BusinessWeek with Carol Messer and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio and Television.

Speaker 3

It is a Bloomberg Business Week. That's Katie Greifeld in for Carol Masser on this Wednesday afternoon. I asked her before we went to break if she'd started her holiday shopping season. She said, the answer is no, Katie, it's not too early.

Speaker 9

You know.

Speaker 6

What you do, Tim, is actually you buy a gift on Amazon, like the day before you see your family. Then you print out what you bought them on Amazon, and then you give them the piece of papers. It's sort of like an IOU.

Speaker 3

It's the thought that counts, and that's a nice thought.

Speaker 6

Yeah.

Speaker 3

Absolutely, Hey, the management consulting from PwC of a couple weeks ago, they crunch the numbers. They found that even though holiday spending is projected to surge to a record high, the increase this year is less than the increase over the previous two years. So yes, it's still growing, but not growing as much as it did in recent years, according to forecasts from PwC. Let's see what Tom McGee has to say about all this. He's president and CEO

of ICSC. It's formerly known as the International Council of Shopping Centers. It's the trade association. They represent retail real estate, so think shopping centers, malls and the like. Tom joins us once again from New York. Tom, good to have you with us. You are in a really interesting position because you represent the folks who have the real estate

when it comes to these bricks and mortar retailers. What are you finding in the sense of how are they thinking about the upcoming holiday shopping season.

Speaker 10

Well, first of all, good afternoon, it's good to be with you again. I think we're looking at a solid holiday season. You know, our expectation is three to three and a half percent growth. I caught your observation around PWC's prediction, you know ours last year we predicted three and a half to four percent. It ended up a fightly glow four percent. So we're a little less than

last year, but still very solid. The consumer con continues to be resilient, certainly concerned around inflation, but seventy percent feel their financial situations better this year than last year at this time, so you know, we two hundred and forty one million people expect to shop this year, six million more than last year. But clearly still concerns around inflation,

still concerns around the economy. But the employment market is strong and the consumer continues to be resilient, and so we expect this to be a solid holiday season.

Speaker 6

And let's talk about how people are spending their money and how they're shopping. You have some really interesting stats, and turns out I think I'm in the minority here because you found that ninety two percent of shoppers will actually spend time in a physical store, just eight percent will buy only online. Tom, I had to admit I found that surprising.

Speaker 10

I think most you know. The name of the game and retail today is omni channel. I mean, we've coined this year the Year of the Store. And the reason we've caught it the Year the Store is not because people are only shopping in stores. We recognize people are shopping online and increasingly shopping online, but the store has become kind of the central point, the focal point for the consumer experience. So even though people will shop online, a lot of those a lot of those orders will

be fulfilled out of store. The store has become kind of a mini perfillments center in addition to being a product of the traditional shopping experience. So really it's about both people will shop and channels. There are clearly some folks that only shop online, but I bet you, Katie, you'll find yourself in a store at least one time this season. So that's the perfect segue, because I know this is not all about Katie, but I do want to ask specifically about her.

Speaker 3

How do you get how do you get Katie Greifeld not to spend those dollars online at a place like Amazon and instead think about this ahead of time and push her into a retail store to get the shopping done. I mean, in a sense, it's it is better for last minute shoppers like herself, right.

Speaker 10

Certainly a store, obviously for last minute fulfillment is going to be the most effective, And retailers really do want people like Katie and and all consumers to shop both in both channels. Quite frankly, I mean most retailers are somewhat agnostic in regards to where you initiate that transaction. They would prefer for that transaction to be fulfilled out of a store, and fulfillment can be accomplished in multiple ways.

They can ship it out of the store, and increasingly many retailers are fulfilling orders out of the store shipping from the store, and that's why those retailers that have a lot of scale and have a lot of large store footprint do tend to do well online. But they also like consumers to come and pick it up in the store on curbs I, pick up, click and collect, et cetera, because that saves the shipping costs and it

also gives them another opportunity to engage with you. The name of the game in retail really is to be effective in both channels. There are some retailers, Amazon being one that isn't strictly online but is predominantly online. There are some retailers that are not strictly physical but are predominantly physical. But most retailers are trying to be effective in both channels. And that's really really important because people have just come to expect that, They come to expect

a consistent experience. And you know, one of the one of the untold stories in physical retail right now, across all sectors, but particularly in open air retail, is that there's really a lack of supply to meet the demand. Many many retailers, including many large national retailers, including the Walmarts of the world, have announced that they want to open up more stores, and there's there's not enough supply

to meet that demand right now. So the competition for suburban open air retail in particular is exceptionally strong, and the competition, the competition for that supply is very fierce right now.

Speaker 3

Tom gonna have to leave it there. Always love it when you join us. Thanks so much for swinging by Bloomberg Business Week. Join us once again before the end of the holiday shopping season. That's Tom McGee, president and CEO of ic SC. They represent the real estate when it comes to those retail.

Speaker 2

Folks the journal Let me drive, no money, please, I want to drive.

Speaker 1

It's a good question.

Speaker 2

This is the drive to the clothes on Bloomberg Radio Kadian.

Speaker 3

Yeah, look at the clock.

Speaker 6

I know we are rapidly approaching the market clothes on this Wednesday. I just figured out it's Wednesday.

Speaker 3

What's it like. You open the markets on Open Interest, you close the markets on Bloomberg Business I certainly do.

Speaker 6

It's exhausting. As we were saying with Abigail I mean, this market has been so weird. I'm standing there, you know, at nine point thirty nothing is happening, and then by the end of the day, I mean, whatever the move was at the open, it's not the move at the close.

Speaker 3

Let's see what Nancy Tangler has to say about this. She's CEO and chief investment officer over at Lafer Tanglar Investment. She's also the author of the Women's Guide to Successful Investing. When it's not cold in New York, she comes and visits us.

Speaker 1

With great shoes.

Speaker 6

She has great shoes.

Speaker 3

But you know, days like today, where are you like wait up and you're like, okay, this is fall. We're kind of getting to winter. Nancy finds herself in Arizona. How are things in Arizona? Nancy, I'm melting. Air conditioning is still on there, so hot.

Speaker 1

It's still hot.

Speaker 6

Yeah, does it never come off? I've never really been to Arizona.

Speaker 1

Help me out, Yeah, it does. It's the winter's pretty pretty awesome.

Speaker 9

But actually, as a native San Franciscan, guys, I love coming to New York when it's cold and bundle up and walk around.

Speaker 3

So I'll see you soon, Okay, good come visit us soon. Yeah, what do you make of these markets? Are they weird like Katie described them?

Speaker 9

Yes, and it is exhausting this the last couple of days have just been befuddling. But I think what we're going into is the crazy season. And you know, we were waiting for the October surprise. The election is getting closer, and we're an earning season. But so far, so good on earnings. I mean, through yesterday seven, almost three quarters of the company's beat on earnings, and almost sixty percent have beaten on revenues. So fifth consecutive quarter of five

percent revenue growth. That's impressive in a declining inflationary environment. So I'm really encouraged about earnings going into the.

Speaker 1

End of the year.

Speaker 6

Well, let's talk about the end of the year, because even if you have, of course that that peace with earnings, the corporate fundamentals are good, I mean, is that going to overwhelm potentially worse snooze on the macroeconomic side coming from the Fed, because there's a lot of question marks over whether or not that rate cutting cycle that markets had priced in is actually going to be as robust as expected.

Speaker 9

Once again, the bond market got ahead of itself unsurprisingly.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I think a couple things, Katie.

Speaker 9

I mean, if you go back and look, there have been nine easing cycles since nineteen seventy four. Four of those were without a recession, and the median return twelve months out was eighteen percent. So I don't know if we get another cut, and in November, I'm guessing this FED seems to want to cut, So I'm guessing we will, and it'll be twenty five basis points. But I don't think it's necessary because we really have a strong economy.

I mean, GDP now for Q three is coming in at three point two percent according to the Atlanta Fed. And you know, we're seeing a decent job market, not layoff. You know, hiring has certainly slowed down, but layoffs have not necessarily picked up.

Speaker 1

Wages have grown dramatically for union workers.

Speaker 9

So I think, well enough, just leave well enough alone and let the companies do the work, let them deliver the earnings in margin expansion.

Speaker 6

Well, when it comes to leaving well enough alone, it's something we were also talking about with ababail Do a little a little bit earlier. The fact that we've had such a strong start to the year at least yesterday when I checked this stat yesterday before the market opened, that this is the best start to a year for the S and P five hundred since nineteen ninety seven. I mean, it has been a fantastic year so far, Nancy.

And with all the different, you know, cross currents that we're talking about, I mean, how tempting is it to just sort of say, Okay, I'm just going to ride out through the rest of the year. I don't need to make any big, bold bets right now.

Speaker 1

I think that is the right strategy.

Speaker 9

We were broadening out about a year ago, and I've talked about on your air a lot about how we have really been talking about this for two years, that this market, in this economy is analogous to the nineteen nineties because productivity improvements are driving margins and are driving earnings growth, and so when you have that, you really should just let the companies continue to invest deliver productivity. Unit labor costs are down to zero point three percent

last quarter. That's pretty impressive, and yet productivity was almost

three percent. So I think we are in the early stages of this AI fueled productivity driven growth, and we ought to just let the companies do their work and own the best ones, and not try to figure out which sectors to outperform in a Harris administration over a Trump administration, because I wrote in my notes when Trump got elected, the conventional wisdom was that technology would suffer and financials and energy would outperform, and in fact the exact opposite was true.

Speaker 3

Nancy, speaking of the election, if we were talking three weeks from now, the Wednesday after election day, what's the conversation we're going to be having. Yeah, I don't know us we're going to Well, she's got a crystal ball. I'm just asking her to look into it and share what she sees.

Speaker 1

Let me let me consult it.

Speaker 9

I think we're going to be talking about tax policy, the TCJA. I think that is really the critical issue no matter who is elected, will it be allowed to sunset? You know that one hundred percent expensing has been declining, expected to get down to twenty percent and twenty twenty six, I think. But there's the foreign tax, and then there's just the corporate tax rate. And what's interesting, Tim is that if you look at corporate tax receipts since the TCJA,

with all the repatriation of earnings. They've doubled from two hundred billion to four hundred billion, so kind of interesting. I was on the fed's website, you know, in my spare time, and that instead of the gambling sites Katie and that that really caught my attention.

Speaker 6

That is really interesting. I am curious. I mean, Tim and I were talking about a little bit earlier. Part of the reason I love talking to you is because you're really into high conviction sort of trades, these relatively concentrated portfolio. I mean, where would you say, at what is it, October sixteenth, after this fantastic year to date run that we've had so far, what's your highest conviction right now?

Speaker 1

Would you say, Nancy, I think industrials.

Speaker 9

So we added uber to a number of months ago to our twelve Best Ideas portfolio. They were the big winner at the Tesla event which I attended.

Speaker 1

We robot that was the stock that rallied after that event.

Speaker 9

But we also like, yeah, we also like names like power PWR, which is Quanta Services, Schneider Electric. These are the companies that are building the infrastructure for the data centers. I bought an electric utility for the first time in thirty five years under the power demand and we're looking, you know, like everyone else's, for interesting ways to play the increasing demand. But those names I mentioned, plus Carrier, which is cooling, the data centers, those are the kind

of names we want to own. We also added t Tech and we own Xylum, so these are companies that do water treatment.

Speaker 1

And I think all of this is going to become critical.

Speaker 3

We started our conversation talking about air conditioning in Arizona. We're ending our conversation talking about cooling, data centers, and Carrier. We're coming full circle. Nancy Tangler thanks so much for joining us. She's CEO and Chief and vestment Officer at Laffertangler Investments, joining us from Scott seller Zone and Nancy also the author of the Women's Guide to Successful Investing.

Speaker 2

This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminale

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