Midtown Is Still Empty, Landlords Sounding the Alarm

dot com. If you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and be sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. As Lisa and I were just discussing, you know, as it relates to the pandemic, it's kind of on a tale of two cities. On on the one one hand, you've got surge in cases, but on the other hand you have that vaccines coming to the market and increasing quantities. So we have to play those two off one another.

Let's get the latest on all things as it relates to the pandemic. We do that with Dr Ian LUs Better, clinical Associate Professor of Medicine at the n y U Lenggo and Medical Center, joining us on the phone from New York. Dr LUs Better, thanks once again so much for joining us. I wonder if you could just give us a sense as a real lates to the virus and the cases we're seeing right now. Um, is it manageable in the New York City or the greater metro

health system. We can do a better job this time that perhaps we did back in March and April when we were just blindsided. Yeah, I think we've learned a lot. And Happy Friday, Lisa and Paul, thanks for having me. Um. Yeah, New York definitely is is really now in sort of the lower third of new cases compared to nationally, And I think a lot of that is based on on the very rough March and April we had where really

the system was stretched to its max. Literally every bed plush was assigned to COVID patients and all of the major medical centers, auditoriums were used, halways were used, uh you know, tensor set up as we remember, even Mount Sinai in in Central Park. So we really were stressed at that point. I think a number of New Yorkers have antibodies. They may have lost them along the way, but I believe a part of the reason New York is at this point in terms of new cases at

the lower third nationally. Unfortunately, states like you know, Tennessee, California really still have you know, Wisconsin still have a huge number of new cases coming. Part of that probably due to the Thanksgiving a bump. You know, we knew families were getting together, kids were coming back from college, so we sort of expected, uh, you know, attend a period of from Thanksgiving when there really would be a bump in cases. But New York so far has been

faring pretty well. There's a lot to unpack here, I've got to say, just you flicking at those tents in Central Park reminds me of some pretty dark days in New York City. I remember running past those and thinking, is this the United States of America? I am wondering, though, is there an inference that we can make about the hospitalization numbers being much lower now than they used to be.

Is it just that more people are getting tested, so we're getting more positives, or is the actual care for people who are diagnosed much better with the knowledge that we've developed. Lisa, good question. I think it's a little bit of both. Um, we certainly are treating patients differently. Uh. Originally we had a very low threshold for intibating patients

putting them in the ICU. UM. A lot of the critical care specialists now watch patients UM who may be sick with COVID uh not everyone UM as their blood oxygen the so called saturation drops you know, into ninety or even blow ninety if patients are comfortable. They're also just observed closely. They're not put on breathing machines, and there was a certain risk and morbidity associated with that. There's also a much lower threshold to start steroids early.

We've learned about that UM you know, rimdescit here. There's been a lot of you know, pros and cons, but uh, we sort of refined kind of how those ill patients are treated, including blood thinners. So I think our mortality is going down, the total number of cases is going up, and you're right. Part of that is that we're testing more people much more frequently. So we're often getting people

with really mild cases. They may have nasal congestion, call for cold, they get a little panicky, Oh my gosh, my my nasal swab was positive. What should I do? Unfortunately a year later, we don't have anything like camouflew for them. Although there are a number of physicians it's interesting that have reported on iver mactin and a couple of other uh not to get to controversial medications that

may be very helpful. So that's worth looking into. But I think that combination of UH of more patients being managed at home UH and and less intubated is giving us some better numbers. Whenever we talk to frontline workers like you, I always want to get a sense of how are your people doing? How are the people at n y u Lango and Medical Center. It's one of

the region's largest. It's just a world class facility. But how are the people doing in the e R and in the in the wards that really have to deal with this? You know. I think it's an amazing staff and everyone is very positive and energetic. You know, we're going on almost a year, and I think there is a lot of fatigue from patients and staff. Um. You know, patients I think are much Uh they're they're emotionally drained. UH. They've been told to, you know, be very careful for

going on a year now. UH. They missed families often family events are you know, where are not attended? And so I think there's a real psychologic toll, and I think that's true to some degree. You know, there's mask fatigue. I mean literally every day when you're in the hospital and in the private offices too. You put on goggles, you put on an in ninety I've masked. That takes a toll on everyone along the way. But I think there's a positive, you know, attitude. The staff is great.

We started getting vaccines this week for frontline workers. I'm getting my vaccine Monday. So I think we are seeing some light at the end of the tunnel. UM and hopefully, you know, we do think you get some immunity within you know, a week or two, not complete immunity. That um efficacy is really after two shots. The second shot you know, in three to four weeks. Same for the maderna vaccine that just got approved. So uh, you can't be reckless, but I think people will feel a little

better psychologically. When will someone like myself be able to get the vaccine, I think really within the next couple of months. You know, we are doing the frontline healthcare workers. It's really amazing. In December, UM, certainly in this area north Well colleagues have already been getting their vaccines, mainly hospital workers, and then that gets pushed out to the private practices mant and that may take certainly another few weeks.

Same at n y U we've already been giving over the last few days the you know, I see you staffer, staff and so forth. Doctors and nurses have gotten it, and then the practices over next week we'll start to get that as well. Not mandatory, you know, they're not making everyone take it, ironically, unlike the flu shot where you have to take it in order to see patients. Uh, it is voluntary, but I think most half is enthused.

All the people I know who have taken the vaccine, minimal side effects, a little ache at the site, kind of like the flu shot, low grade fiver, none of the allergic reactions I've I've heard about that. We've seen just a couple of sporadic cases. Um, you know outside of this area. Uh. And I think for regular patients and my patients like Julius are saying, hey, when can I get it? Um. N y U does plan to

give it out to our our patients. Uh. You know in the next couple of months, is more shipments come in which VECs SAN we'll have to see Maderna was just approved. Those are two shots J and J is one shot which makes it all up more convenient. That has yet to be approved. Uh, And then we think the local pharmacy, CBS, Walgreens, etcetera. So you should be vaccinated. I think within eight weeks hopefully, you know, we're getting

it out to elderly and nursing homes. And I really think by next summer we will have a fairly normal looking country. Maybe not economically due to the real damage that's occurred, but in terms of behavior, I think people will will get back to a pretty normal life by you know, spring and early summer is my guestimate at this point. Well, I have to say that was probably the most self serving question that's ever been asked, being like,

this is our personal desire. Everyone is asking that question question, that's right, So actually we don't really we can't say yet you know you're alpha adic or you're a certain age, you're going to get it. All of those details really are going to be worked out, and I think, but but the timeframe is somewhere. We think in the next eight to ten weeks will be very likely. But you know how that's going to be done. It's really a

massive vaccination. We haven't done this, uh, you know, in a very long time, so this is really a little bit of uncharted territory. The good news is, look, it's not an emergency, and again most people who get this are going to be fine. But we do certainly want to get up to her immunity as soon as possible, and and I think that will happen in the next

few months. Dr lust bede A. I've been reading some some stories recently, some news stories that perhaps one dose of the fiser and potentially the maderna might be enough and that might allow certain people, or that might allow a quicker rollout since you wouldn't have to bring use another dose for the same patient. What is your thoughts on that? What? What? What? What? Do you know? You know,

there's no questions. Some antibodies are formed after one dose. Again, that m R and A gets in your cells, makes that viral protein, that spike protein, which seems to be uh, you know, the most antigenic. Your body then forms antibodies to that over the course of you know, days, two weeks, and then when the virus if you see the virus, you already have antibodies to it, so it should make it a much more um rapid response. Optimally, the data so far really is those two shots, and many vaccines

are like that, shingles vaccine, pneumonia. You know, a number of vaccines really require two shots to get an optimal antibody response. It is my belief that the smart thing, based on the data at this point would be to get the two shots. I think most healthcare providers are planning to get two shots um. But look, certainly people will begin to be protected even after one shot. I don't think we're going to have to fight over vaccine numbers.

We really have a number of vaccine makers that over the next few weeks and months are going to becoming available, So I don't think we have to worry about rationing um vaccine at this point. But I do think we need to focus on the most vulnerable, you know, population within the elderly and so forth. Dr inlus Better, thank you so much once again for joining us. We always appreciate your perspective and your knowledge, uh and the way you can kind of get across some of this difficult

science here. Dr inlus Better, Clinical socio Professor of medicine, at the n y U Lango Medical Center joining us on the phone from New York City, and that was that eight week numbers is something that jumped out of me. Encouraging, right, and it would be kind of exciting to get it pretty soon and then get on a plane and go on vacation. Not that that's where my mind is right now, but my god, palm trees. So I mean, the scientists have just done in a outstanding job. Now it's up

to the supply chain, folks. I guess that's way I'm looking at. One of the clearest signs of the economic harm being done to America in general, but certainly in the Greater New York area, is the empty storefront and that is obviously reflective of businesses that have gone out of business, and that's obviously challenging for those businesses and challenging for the landlords for those buildings in which those businesses reside in. Bloomberg Business Week has a great article

on that. Joel Lubber, editor for Bloomberg Business Week, joins us here from remote access from Brooklyn. Devin Leonard, projects, an investigations reporter for Bloomberg Business Week, also joins us on the phone from New York City and Joel, this is a big story, the retail story and the landlord and the real estate story all rolled into one in New York. Yeah, it really focuses on on Midtown Manhattan, and that also represents you know, midtown districts throughout the country,

if not world. And Devin's story really centers on on a fascinating character, Aby Rosen, who in the commercial real estate world is actually a really big name. The reason that he's especially relevant to New York right now is that he's actually in the process of of doing a

really extensive renovation of the Chrysler Building. And of all the things that you could be doing in the middle of a pandemic, you know, doing a you know, gikantic renovation of iconic building that um commercial tenants are probably looking at but maybe not um biting on right now,

is probably not one of them. Um. And that was why we wanted to talk to him, because you know, this has serious implications for the economy as well as cities right like New York is is really in the jaws of something right now, and somebody like Abe can kind of illuminate, you know, what it's like to be a developer in all of this. So, so, Devin, what did you learn from talking with him? Oh? Well, all

kinds of things. But but I think the biggest thing was just, you know, getting him to take me up to the Chrysler building because it was fascinating to see what he's gonna do. You know, it's his hist you know, two hundred you know, two million dollar plan to to to renovate this sort of historic building. But there's there

was nobody there. You know, there was I mean, the you know, the lobby was empty, you know there you know, his publicist was commenting, I couldn't believe it was like a Sunday morning and meanwhile, it's ago Wednesday afternoon and about you know, five o'clock and we ran into one tenant and he was leaving, and it was it was just you know, it was just it was it was just it was kind of a amazing me. I was, you know, I was just there at my taper quarter on,

but I was just like, this is it. This is the opening of the story, because you know, I don't know any other way to to you know, to describe to you know, describe what's going on right now. So Devin, I was struck by this sort of trying to seem optimistic on the front and then underneath having true anxiety. And when we were first talking about this idea that Aby would have a really good view on this, well, he wants to also portray things in a certain way.

And one of the best parts of the story was him how going with this guy and saying, hey, if you leave, trust me. The line to take the space we pretty long, and the guy says, I hope so, and then and then Aby says, don't leave. Pay the high rent. Come on. How much fear is there, Devin, Well, I think it depends who you are, you know. I think there's there's there's a certain amount of you know, degree of fear for all these guys. I mean even

you know, you know they're they're really big names. And that's why you saw a lot of them calling tenants, uh, you know, in the falls in the fall and saying, hey, you gotta bring you gotta bring your people back, because they're worried that the longer, the longer people stay out, the more people are going to get used to working at home, you know, the less demand there's there's gonna be, you know, for you know, for their space and things like that, so so so so the longer Longerest goes

on and just sort of you know, potentially the values the values their buildings. You know. On the other hand, you know people I guess I'll gree you new of you know one Vander, but you know, the newest the newest guy script in the mid time, people like you know in aby Rose, and they're they're a much better position that than than people with you know, class B buildings,

you know intendants, So they're going out of business. But even so, you know, you know, imagine if you are, you know, you just put a new skyscraper and you're trying to market it in the middle of this. I mean, you'd be anxious to actually devin one of the things.

Let's just stay in the Crystler building here for a second, because one of the most interesting things I learned about the Crysler building is that while he owns the building, he doesn't actually own the land the building is built on, and those payments are actually only going to go up. Um talk to us about that guy, em because also who he has to pay is an interesting side story too. Yeah, I mean, it's it's not a totally on you know,

uncommon thing in in New York real estate. For I guess you you buy an effect you know, a building or basically buy a leasehold or a long term leasehold in the building. But then you have to pay you you know, you know, you the code unquipe building owner. You have to pay rent to somebody who owns the ground underneath. And in this case, uh, you know, wasn't it you know, in his partner Signal group from Austria, they have to pay thirty two million dollars a year

to coop reunion. Uh you know, you know, you know, you know a college that that's basically they got into financial trouble a couple of years ago. They started charging tuition. You know, they they've been found, they were founded, they've been founded. Uh you know, you know in the nineteenth century, you know, to offer free free education to you know, working class kids. Well they're trying to get back to to charge to not charging tuition. They're counting on that money.

They're kind of that thirty two million dollars a year from the Chrysler building and it goes up to forty one in a couple of years. So that's a big nut to cover every year, and that's sort of a big challenge for Abe. Devin. Can we also just talk about some of the singers in the story because he had he had some stuff to say. Um, let's start with the Blasia. Yeah, well that's why. That's why he's he's so great, Uh, you know, such such a great

you know, lens to to look at this all through. Well, he's It's interesting because because in September, you know, more than a hundred and sixty business leaders wrote a letter basically criticizing the Blasio start of pleading with him to do something about you know, rising crime and trash on the streets and things like that. Well, Rosen didn't sign didn't sign the letter because he's friends with the Blasio. He talks to him a lot and talks about city policies.

But so basically, but he usually disappointed whether he said, this is what I tell the Blasio, and I tell I tell him I'm disappointed with what he's that are not done with school reopening and basically he said de Blasio. So he sits around and says, I maybe you know what can I do? Mean? But I want to do it's negative and you know, I can't make a decision, and Rosen said he's done, he's checked out. Wow, So

I mean, is the expectation real quickly? Do you think that a thinks things are going to get better, come back to normal, New York come back? Well, I think he thinks long term they will, and I think I think I think he thinks that that next year doesn't be a new mayor and that you know, you know, that should be an improvement right there. But he was also talking about, you know, Joe Biden is gonna win and he's going to get all this money for for

New York. And we now know well, you know the at the Senate stands fpublic publican had excuse me, that's that may not happen. So so you have that there's uncertainty, but do the next mayor is and and then you have you know, the the you know, budget deficis and things like that. So you know, if you know this, I think everybody thinks New York will come back. Depressions when when? When? Exactly right? Joel Weber, thank you so

much for joining us and bring us this story. Editor for Bloomberg Business Week on the remote from Brooklyn and Devin fantastic reporting on this story. We really appreciate it. Really rich story, products, projects and investigations. Reporter for Bloomberg Business Week on the phone from New York City. Uh. Devin's story is featured in the new issue of Business Week magazine, available on a newsstands and at Bloomberg dot com.

And for those of you listening in New York, d C in San Francisco and watching on YouTube, Bloomberg Business Week continues. If you're listening on Bloomberg one oh six one in Boston based eight Business is next and Lesa, this is that New York real estate issue. Um, when you think about all that new construction that was gone up over the last four or five six years, you've

gotta wonder how that's gonna play out going forward. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser on Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Paul Sqweene alongside Lisa Brahmins. We were sitting in for Carol Masser today and the news of the day, as it has been for the last several weeks, is, uh, what's going on in Washington in terms of fiscal stimulus that doesn't look right now that the congressmen are working well with each other in

their sandbox, Let's get the latest. We do that with Laura Litvan, congressional reporter for Bloomberg News. She joins us on the phone from Washington and d C. Laura, there seems to be a snag every other day. Just when you think some momentum might be building for some type of even limited stimulus, politics seems to get in the way. What's the latest. Well, I do think there ultimately will

be a deal. But um John Thune, who has been umber two Republican leaders, just told reporters that this could stretch into Monday before maybe something comes together and you can get a vote in the Senate. They are wrestling over the number of issues, but a leading issue, probably the number one run, number one issue holding up the trucks right now, is how to handle the federal reserves UM emergency loan programs that were set up in the Care's Act, the Pandemic Relief Act that past in March.

Um Republicans like Pat too Mey and Mike Crepo want to ensure that, uh, those those programs can't be revived, you know, they say those were supposed to be temporary in nature. Democrats are balking, and the Biden transition team is weighed in. Democrats are saying that it hurts the FED ability to respond to future crises. Republicans are concerned that a lot of these moneys could be used for state locally, which they have been bristling at, and they're

trying to work that out. You know, Soon just expressed some confidence that something can be worked out, but things could drag into the weekend and we have a potentially all government shutdown occurring if they can't just agree on the stopgap measure to buy them a little more time tonight or why are we talking about this now at the eleventh hour. Well, and that's kind of how these things often work out. They do come down to the wire.

But there have been some very strong feelings on both sides on um some of these issues and a lot of the details. Um, you know, the state local aid in the size of the package has been something that Republicans have pushed back against for months. Um. But you know, these are really they often do take these things right down to the wire, and then you know, there's a lot of confidence being expressed by leaders of both parties that a deal will come together. They're not going to

leave count until they get one. And we actually do know the brought outlines of this this deal. It's going to be around nine billions. It's expected to have three hundred dollars a week, and enhanced unemployment benefits UH around three d billion dollars for the Paychex Protection program which helps small businesses, direct payments of around six billion dollars for individuals, and some fun thing for transportation including airlines,

for back to thee distribution and for reopening school. And really what they need to do is just to free on a few final things and get the language drafted and everyone agreed to it, and try to move that through in a few days. Boy, I think a Congression reporter lare, that's a tough beat, cover these folks all day, every day. I don't know how you do it. Um. So, you know, it seems like the fiscal STIDMENTUS talks are kind of bearing the lead a little bit here because

we need to fund this government going forward. It's just the metrics of what happens tonight the weekend. Are we going to get a stop gap for a week or a day? What's that side of the equation, Well, what they seem to be looking at is around two days, maybe a little longer. They have to see what people will agree through and what they really need. The House would probably vote on something tonight and the Senate would then take that and try to see if they can

lose it by unanimous consent. They need that because in the Senate it always takes more time to new things, and there are some senators who are saying I might not go along with this just because are some things in the stimulus bill that I'm not sure I'm gonna like. I want to know more detail about what's going to look like first. So there's at least some possibility they

won't pass the stopgap bill. But if they don't, there's some ability by the administration if it's clear that something is coming soon behind it, that will fix the problem that they can delay any furloughs for a few days if the funding is seen as likely to pass them in their future. So from a political perspective, I don't understand why Republicans wouldn't be trying to expedite this since a number of different surveys show it would help them

in the Georgia election. Well, the leaders at this point are trying to do that. And Mitch McConnell in a call with other Republican senators this week as we brought in the Georgia's racism and said that moving this along would be helpful. What's happened is there are some lawmakers in both parties, in particularly we are seeing in the Republican side right now who are saying they could hold up that stop bill m over over these provisions that

they want to see changed on the letting facilities. And another issue is this is bipartisan. Thep Senator Josh Holly and Independent Senator Bernie Sanders both want in direct payments and um, they're saying that they want to make sure there's at least the generalists, you know, direct payment a check to people in the final deal. And they're saying they aren't ready to say they'll look that stockcap measure

go through until they're sure of that. Are the folks in converss are they surprised that we're not hearing much, if at all, from the White House what the president may want, what the President is willing to support. Well, Stephen the Niche in the Treasury Secretary has been at the table in these talks, and you know, so there's some belief that Trump would sign it, but I think we all know that there can always be surprises with President Trump at the last minute. He does want UH

direct payments, that's the biggest ship for him. They brought that in late into the talks. Minuchin and the leaders are looking at six hundred, you know, the six checks, and we haven't heard that Trump is objecting to that. And one thing I will tell you is that Holly himself spoke directly with Trump had in the last twenty four hours. He told us about this and he said the President did not bring it up, saying that he

was objecting to what's going forward. Laura litt Van, thank you so much for being with us a Bloomberg News congressional reporter. And it just is amazing how it always does come down to the wire. But we've been to other wires, Paul. That's the thing. This isn't the first wire. We've had other wires. Just that this wire is actually going to trip something major, which is a government shutdown, so it seems a little bit more realistic. But still this has been dragging out. It has been and I

liked your question about the FED. What shocked I guess it surprise me is I hadn't heard this about the FED until today. I think, you know, you know, maybe I wasn't paying attention, but it's kind of my job to pay attention to this stuff. But it just seems like a fundamental issue to come out. It's not like we've been debating this for weeks. It just seems like another way to trip up the talks here for whatever political game. May you know, that's why it's stuffed down

there in Washington. And you know, folks like Laura Lipin have been covering Congress for a long time. They're so valuable to us because they kind of know how things work down there. So but but yeah, but it's it's just curious to me because the main issues were state and local funding and liability with respect to COVID, and now we're talking about the powers of the federal Reserve.

You just wonder what other aspects are going to come out of the woodwork as we head towards the last minute here a journal now, But you let me drive, Oh no, no, no, no, honey, please, I'll do the right I want to drive. Drive good questions this drive to the globe dawn radio. Welcome back everybody. We are heading towards the market close here in about ten minutes time. We have green, red, and green across the screen here.

It's basically a churn. It's been a churn all day, NASDAC eating out about a half a percent of gains, the SMP down just about two tenths of a percent. The question is how much are people reassessing the momentum bets, how much are people reassessing the incredible gains that we've seen so far this month and this week and just basically not doing much with that joining it was? Right now is Tony Roth, chief investment officer at Wilmington's Trust, And Tony, I love your sense. Do you think the

momentum has gotten over its skis at this point? Hey, Lisa, thanks for having me. Uh No, I don't think so. I think we're seeing a little bit of nervousness around the stimulus, uh you know, to protracted stimulus and goitiation or discussion if you will. There's been it seems like every day the market has been up expecting the stimulus package,

yet it never seems to arrive. Right. So everyone's waiting for the stimulus package, and right now we're dealing with situation where they're yet again a hamstrong there, and yet people are banking on stimulus and that's been baked into the valuations. How do you square that as an investor

heading into your end Well, it's a great question. We just released our capital market forecast, which is of course our outlook for next year, and we made a lot of changes to portfolios this week in order to reflect that outlook. And so specifically, we added to emerging markets where we already had an overweight. We added to small cap where we were neutral and we're now overweight. We also added to commodities to bring it up to neutral, and we added to tips from a severe underway to

a moderate underway. So all across those trades, these added to beta in the portfolios. Because when we look at the outlook, we know we're going to get this stimulus package. We don't know it's going to be today, over the weekend, next week, maybe passi BI natural early next year, but

I would doubt it would take that long. And when you combine that with the fact that these vaccines that are arriving, vaccinations are occurring, and you continue to have a FED which is extremely committed to accommodation, You're gonna have a pretty good year next year and this tremendous pent up demand in the economy. All right, And I just want to clarify I was checking the wrong screen. I apologize Nazac as a pee both doubt about six

tents of a present. I'm wondering, though, is this the kind of dip that you buy or is this basically, uh, nothing in particular and you just kind of hold what you've been holding into next year. Well, it's not much of a dip yet, right, we're pretty close to those all time highs. Having said that, we may not get a huge dip before we race forward next year. So on the extreme margin, anytime the market goes down, um by even a percent, it's a buying opportunity if you're

not fully invested relative to your long term plan. So Tony, if fascinated by your e M hall because we've had a lot of cross currents on emerging markets, Uh, is this what's driving your call? And kind of where do you see the best opportunities in emerging markets? So you

have fall a couple of things. First, thing is that if you think about the changes wrought through COVID, the signal impact that is going to be singular when we look forward UM or when we look back at this period from the future, is going to be the acceleration

of digital, the digitization of the consumer. And when we look at the e M, what you see is tremendous supply side set up for the e M to supply infrastructure, semiconductors, cloud, all those kinds of things for digitization of our society. And from a supply side, they're frankly ahead in Southeast Asia of the rest of the world when it when it comes to casual society, telehealth, UM, contactless payment, all those kinds of things. As the world becomes more and

more digital, UM e M set up for that. And then the second thing, of course, is that there are a lot cheaper relatively speaking from a historical perspective than the developed equity markets are. And then maybe a third order factor is the weakening dollar, which helps all non US equities. So there's quite a number of things that are lining up here because the just EM is the

place today. So I guess I'm looking at this and I'm thinking everyone has been coming out with a similar kind of call, this feeling of continue with momentum emerging markets over the US, Europe over the US, although that's a more controversial call. Does it concern you that there is a degree of group think that, according to some measures, is the most years. Well, I guess it won't always have to be worried about that. I mean, I think that when I think it's about the group think right now,

it's just this general optimism. Um. I think sentiment is incredibly strong now for all equities. So that does concern me. But when you look at value sations and you consider where rates are as high a valuations are where nowhere nears where we work during the bubbles of the late nineties and such, And so I think that with rates the slow and the FED committed to keeping blow at least for another eighteen months or so. I know they're saying, let's face that, no one really knows where we're gonna

be after eighteen months. That's a pretty far window. I think that there's justification for for this um enthusiasm in markets. And again, these vaccines are game changing, and by our estimate, there's probably a trillion and a half dollars of pentoff savings that are waiting to spill out into the server side of the economy next year. That is a huge number. Yeah, you can put me in that camp, that's for sure. Uh, Tony about vacation right, hit darn right, exactly, Hop on

a plane. Um. Tony talked to us about the rotation trade here, you know, you know, out of maybe some of the tech growth lightning up there, a little bit on some of those big growth gainers, uh, and maybe putting some more cap into some of the cyclical names, maybe even smaller cap. How do you think about that? Yeah?

I think, I think that you need to be balanced, and I do I do think you can ignore the cyclical slash value trade that's happening right now small caps race thinking have we just moved to an overweight on small cap? I do think that we're going to continue to see a catch up from those cheaper, junkier names in both large cap and just more broadly in small cap.

And so when you think about areas like energy, UM, infrastructure UM, areas of healthcare, materials, even financials, I think over the next six months we're going to continue to see hard rotations, hard rotations into those areas. But that doesn't mean that you take it necessarily out of the big cap tech names that there's four or five names Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Um, Google, arguably Facebook. Maybe maybe not, depending on what happens there

with the antitrust overhead. Those platforms are going to be the venues upon which the consumer is digitized going forward, virtual reality, reality, It's just gonna go on and on with those platforms. So you can't afford to kick those platforms out of your portfolio. Tony Roth, chief investment officer at Wilmington Trust with a hundred and twenty four billion dollars in management, joining us on the phone from Philadelphia. Paul, I gotta say the Russell's two thousand up twenty eight

percent since the end of October alone. I know that is the trade. Yeah, it really is the trade. And we've seen that rotation play. You really start in September and then just gain a tremendous men momentum and it's you know again, don't fight the Fed, Lisa, and Chairman Pal has been very clear as to what he views

the rate environment going through at least. Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or at bloomberg dot com, and be sure to check out our daily radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. And be sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News