Metzl Says AI Will Aid in Fighting Coronavirus

nice to have you here once again. Is the book out today on paperback? It's tomorrow tomorrow, yes, but I hope people will read it. And there's like a they're practically giving it away on the book today and tomorrow, like three dollars or something. So if you're sitting at home and you want to learn about the genetics revolution, I hope you'll read it well. And I do feel like it's relevant to everything that we're going on with

the virus. You know, you you had sent out some messages over the weekend taking a look at all the doctors who are working, you know, endlessly to deal with so many cases um of COVID nineteen. You talked about AI in the future that could you know, potentially help us talk to us a little bit about that. Yeah, So that's this crazy experience that we're having now, is that all of these trends that we thought would play out over ten twenty years are happening now because we're

in this crisis. So you and I Carol would both said, Jason, we're all here in New York and we the number of cases is overwhelming our health care system, and not only that, our health care providers are in themselves being infective.

So we're we're relatively quickly going to come to a point we have more patients and not enough doctors, and so we're going to have to shift so that at least the first point of care is going to have to be artificial intelligence, so that if you have a symptom um, you you go online and you have an artificial intelligence agent basically a program, and everybody will have a home kit of a thermometer and a scale and a blood pressure cuff and a few other simple things,

and you'll put in your symptoms, and you'll put in your readings from home, and then you'll get a differential diagnosis, and if it's just um, here are some things, you should just stay home and have chicken soup and liquids and rest a. I will tell you that if you need to be escalated, then the AI will refer you to a telemedicine general consult and then perhaps to a

specialist telemedicine consult and only then to a human. So this whole thing now, where you feel a symptom and go to the doctor, it's great for normal times, but it's probably not going to be possible in crisis times like this. And so I guess one of the questions, Jamie, is what of crisis time will become normal in normal time. It's such a great question. And people, a lot of people have this feeling that what we're experiencing now is

kind of like a snowstorm, that big storm. We sit home, the plows come out, plows gets rid of the snow, the sun comes out, everything melts, and then we just go back to our lives. Old lives that we've had are never coming back in so many big ways. And so this shift to virtualization that we're all experiencing, it's going to happen, it's going to going to continue not just in health care, but in everything else in our

companies are taking a beating. They're not going to bring all these employees back in expensive real estate across the economy. That we're going to see big, big changes that are going to change the way we live and the way we work, and certainly the way we experience healthcare. Yeah, I mean we you know, we've had so many conversations about what will be lasting. It's interesting because here we

have gone through this phase. UM. You know, we certainly have it in our office as you know, these open environments where all teams can walk into one another, you know, conversations across different parts of the business, UM, and that has seen as an advantage. But we are finding to some extent that we can do a fair amount of that there our virtual world right absolutely. And on top of that, we're not going to go back toward anything

that even steals normal until there's a vaccine. And I know we're hearing this, uh this twelve months as a as a possibility, but that's the ultimate dream scenario. That's everything going right with an order of magnitude better performance than we've ever had in the history of healthcare. UM. So it could be that it's eighteen months, two years until we're able to be in those same kinds of

physical environments. I was doing a Denver radio interview the other day and I told them that I didn't think it was very likely there was going to be a full stadium NFL football game anywhere in this country until two and these guys they were planning on going going to the opening day later this year, and it's it's it's really, this is really big change. It's so hard

to fathom where we're heading. So, Jamie, when you hear the president or other officials or even business folks start to talk about reopening the economy, you say, what not even close? Well, it depends on what we mean. We can't have we can't be totally hunkered down like we are now forever um. But we're not going to be able to just say everybody goes back, because again, until there's a vaccine, if we all go back to normal, um, we're going to have this same kind of of explosion.

What we're talking about is with is this exponential growth, So do I how will it work? Maybe some people will go back, Maybe we'll have some groups of kids who will go in small numbers to schools maybe Monday, Wednesday, Friday group and a Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday group, and and

businesses will have to work that way. And somebody in the government, very tragically is going to be doing a calculation about how much we opened the economy versus the number of people who at least until there's better treatments and a and a vaccine are going to die. And that's I mean that that's the I'm sure you've had cast On Stein on your UM, on your your program, but that kind of calculation. The government does it all the time when they say, well, what should the speed

limit be? They increase the speed limit, people go faster, but you'll have more fatalities. And sadly this calculus that we're going to tragically have to do. You know, Jamie, I wanted to pose a question to you that that came to me earlier when we were talking to our colleague Andy Brown, who runs our New Economy UH program, a New Economy forum that happened last year over in Beijing or just outside of Beijing. You are a China expert.

I mean, you're an expert on many things, as we have laid out UM, but you know, so much about China and specifically the relationship between the US and China, and I do think this has thrown that thrown that relationship, which already was, to say the least complicated over the

trade war, into a whole other category. What do you make of it right now, especially at a time when man and I know I'm being a little pollyannish about this, but if those two superpowers could get together, I do feel like we could make some progress on this, right Yeah. So well, the good news is on the scientific level, our scientists are actually working pretty closely together, and that's positive.

I was on a big, a big global call over the weekend where we had scientists from China, scientists from Italy, and scientists from the United States and elsewhere, so that that is happening. But in terms of big power politics,

I mean, this is really really dangerous. I mean, first, there was all the name calling, and I think that it's just undoubtedly true that China's massive failure at the beginning of this helped exacerbate this, uh, this problem in a very very big way, and we're all suffering as

a result. Um, But the total failure of the Trump administration to prepare even when we had the warning signs out of China in January and US Intelligence was raising the alarm that the reason why so many people are dying here in New York and elsewhere is not just because of China, it's also because of the total failure of the U S response. That's the starting point. But we have to work together to get there from here.

I was just hearing and when I was waiting to come on about Tim Cook having supplies made, uh and Apple having supplies made that are going to save people's lives here. Where are those supplies being made? You didn't mention in your report, but I would bet anything They're not being made here in the United States, are being made in China that has figured out a better way

than we have to address this problem. And if we don't learn from China, in spite of all of the problems that we have in our relationship, we're going to harm ourselves. So I totally agree with you, Jason. We have to find a way to collaborate well. And I think you know China in particular, um Jamie, they have

had to deal with other health issues before, right. I mean, you know this was a society, a country that has dealt with similar things, whether we go back to stars and some other you know, health situations, even just dealing with their air, you know. So I feel like they were certainly well ahead of us and kind of understanding, you know, how this can disrupt kind of your life as you know it. That's exactly right. And now that was one of the problems. Um. You mentioned my background

in China and Asia. So when this thing first started happening and I was seeing the alarm bills coming out of China, I talked to my brother, who's a doctor here in New York, and I said, look, this is really a big deal. Found the alarm and he went and spoke to to the one of the doctors, that infectious disease guy in his hospital, and that guy said, oh no, this is all overblown. This is just the flu.

And I think the problem was in China and in across Asia, when they had this experience, they thought stars, and they mobilized right away because they knew how scary stars. We were spared a lot of the pain of stars, so we thought flu. And because flu was our paradigm, we weren't. We weren't ready for it on and that's I think we're still suffering as a result of it. That's such an interesting question or that's such an interesting observation,

And you're exactly right. As I think about the way, especially very smart people in business and economics and finance especially reacted to me about it, You're exactly right, that's the frame that that they've viewed it. So you know, you mentioned the scientific collaboration, and given that you are in touch with a lot of those folks, I do wonder.

I have felt a certain sense of optimism, and I think Carol has two as we've talked to a lot of medical experts who were essentially saying a lot of the barriers that have traditionally been there in terms of

collaboration are down, at least for the moment. That's another area where I wonder if you're seeing the potential for a more secular rather than cyclical change in attacking big problems as a group rather than individual lyng Well, it's interesting, I answered, or maybe on a on a few different levels, certainly on a point to point, person to person level, um, including among experts there. It's it's kind of incredible what

we're seeing a lot of us. I'm sure you guys as well, and most of your listeners are spending all of our days on these zoom calls. And there are new types of communities that are that are forming and doing really, really great things. But on a national level, I also think that things could get worse between the United States and China, because if you're a country like China, country like Russia, and you probably haven't been that happy that the United States has been defining in many ways

the global world order for seventy five years. This is your your big chance to change that. And maybe you change that through providing aid to different countries in the world, or maybe, like Russia, you realize, well, you interfered in the election last time, what if you if you do it again, can you just put you know, shoot your

arrow into the Achilles heel of the United States. And then on a global level, um, what we're seeing is there's just a fundamental mismatch between the nature of the global nature of the big problems we face, whether it's pandemics, climate change, ecosystem destruction, or weapons of mass destruction, and how we're organized to address them, which is nationally or

with international organizations created by states. And so we're going to have to just actually jumped off a zoom call to take this interview talking about can we create a third force in global politics, like a third leg of the stool, which is the democratically expressed political will of humans?

Because if you ask any humans should we have at w h O world health organization that can solve problems like this, or an entity that can save our oceans, everybody would say yes, So ask why don't we have? So I've got to ask. It's what we've been calling, Jamie, are big thanker questions. So, how will the coronavirus pandemic

change the world? And you know, more specifically, when we when we get out of this, what's the most important, in your view, underappreciated way that the world will be different. So I'm thinking a lot about this. I'm actually just starting to write a book about it. And I think it's fundamental. I mean, one of the reasons why I say that this year is more like one than it

is like two thousand and one. And I think this is going to be the year when historians future storms will look back at this year and say, this was the year that the post war American led international order collapsed.

And so there's a race now to see whether there can be some new kind of order then fills this gap, or it will be kind of a disorder, but will which will look like the world used to look before the reorganization happened after the Second World War, which was a balance of power between these nationalist countries where everybody was looking out for their own interest and nobody was

looking out for the common good. And that's that's why this conversation about values is more important than ever before now because I don't want to go back to that balance of power world where everybody has a little hat that says in certain name of your country first, because that's what our great grandparents had and we know where it ends. But if we want to have something different now, we have to build it. And that's the challenge of

this moment. Well. And it's so interesting, Jamie, did to hear you say that, because you know, we were talking earlier with another conversation had earlier was with the woman who leads all of our international government coverage, and she was telling us about Boris Johnson and the state of his else but you know, we got into a broader conversation about how Europe is tackling this, and you are seeing, you know, different leaders sort of step to the four

in the same way that we're seeing different governors sort of come to the four here in the United States, different world leaders. Really you're kind of seeing what they're made of. Right, everybody is seeing what everybody in our

lives is made of. Whether it's our family members, are friends, are government leaders, and there are people who are playing to our fears, and there are people who are saying, at this moment of crisis, this is when we can be our best and we humans, we are social creatures, and we can inspire each other to be better. And that's what I always say is that if you are and any listeners, if you're just sitting home binge watching Netflix, your country and your community and your world need you.

This is the moment where we have to begin building on from the foundations that exist something that's better. This is an all anzon deck moment for everyone. So how do we do that, Jamie? Because we have and we've done it with you, We've done it with others, um We've done it a lot today about the inequalities that are out there, whether it's in healthcare and and the virus is really exposing. We knew the gaps were out there, but the virus is really exposing, whether it's a hotel worker,

restaurant worker, service worker. You know, we're seeing really these inequalities, UM, laid bare to us. So what do we do? What do what do we need to do that we don't come out of this and kind of forget all of this that happened and don't and don't reduce those gaps. Well, there there are two things that we need to do in my view. One is we need to organize politically around our values. I had a long conversation earlier today with with Andrew Yang, who actually read that the article

UM that you mentioned Carol and game Ring. We talked for about an hour about about these things. So the kinds of the processes that he had he and Obama earlier and others had pioneered of how do we create inclusive, participatory democratic structures that can push for this kind of change, Even Bernie Sanders. I'm not a fan of Bernie Sanders, but they've built this kind of movement based politics and it's going to look different, UM. And that's and so

we have to have that. Joe Biden in his basement isn't going to be able to have this kind of movement alone. And this should be an inclusive movement because I think people in you know, lots of people who were against inclusion in our health care system are not gonna want gonna going to want to have no health care or have overwhelmed health care systems. We at times like this, we know that governance is is really important.

And then globally we have to find ways of solving our common problems, and we have the networks to do it. So I'm I'm trying. I'm launching, with many other people, a global interdependence movement. People can find out about that on my website Janis dot com. But we have people in twenty three countries now working together to say, well, all right, enough of this bologna. How can we come together.

How can we put pressure on our governments to solve these problems, because when the problems aren't solved, we all suffer. And that's what we're seeing. Do you think it will show up in the elections in November? You know, I don't for sure. Our elections are going to be chaotic and highly contentious. Um because where people aren't going to be able to vote in the same ways. They'll have to be some kinds of accommodations, electronic voting or mail.

Um are bad guy attackers are going to recognize that vulnerability, and they're going to come at us hard. Um. The Russians um interfered in the last elections and and didn't have any consequence, so they're not going to to say, oh,

I guess we shouldn't do it again. Um. So there is a lot of pain, and as much pain as we've been through already, there's more pain ahead and we have to not only be ready for it, but we have to ask ourselves who we are and really stay true to that vision because we're all going to be tested more than in many cases ever before, over the over these coming months and years. And so what's I don't know, what's your big lesson in the in the moment. What's the one message that you really want people to

understand about this, Uh, Jamie? And and you know this is a free plug for your book, I mean your paperbacks out tomorrow, right, You're sweet to say that this is a plug from my book, and I certainly well I pivot away from there to say it's not. What I'm going to say is you should read the book Hacking Darwin Enetic Engineering in the Future of You Manity. But I'm not going to say that available on paperback tomorrow,

pick it up. No, no, but I'm not going to say that, because what I'm going to say is, um, when you're listeners are ninety years old, they're gonna wheel you out onto the stage in your grandkids are great grandkids school and they can say, oh, my god, you were there in the great crisis, the great coronavirus crisis of tell me about it, and you'll tell them a story. And that story should be the story of how, at this moment you found your best, you did your best.

And if you want that to be the story, then then live that story. Now. You know, it's funny that you say that, because there's a friend of mine who's got a friend I think from Brown University, and I know you went there also. But what's interesting is wrote wrote a poem or wrote just some writings about what if? What if the coronavirus, you know, is kind of teaching us to slow down and spend more time with family

and rethink. And it's it's really I do wonder about that too, that this time that we're all going to look back and it created some really major and necessary changes in our world and our personal as well as our professional. Yeah, well, this is the life that we have. We could imagine other lives, but this is the one we have, and so it's up to us to find the greatest meaning and it will be a different mix of things. And you're exactly right, Carol, all these people today,

I never had time enough time with my kids. I never had enough time to to learn the history of surrealism whatever somebody's saying, is now is that time? And yes, we're we're all mourning things that we may have blocked, but there's there are new there are new things possible here, and we need to explore and embrace those as well. It's so true. And you know, Carol and I've been

we're talking. We were talking about this this morning because I was talking to her because as I was on a walk with my two year old daughter, who is certainly in our house, the big winner in this crisis, because you know, and and I said to her, I said to Carol, not probably said it to my daughter too, Like these are hours of the day that I would not normally spend with her, and it's uh, it's very special and I will look back on that for sure. Amid all of this, uh is something that was that

was very meaningful. So um, always great perspective from you, Jamie Matzel, so thoughtful. We really appreciate senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, former staffer on the National Security Council, member there and as his book Hacky Garwin Genetic Engineering in the Future of Humanity, it's out in paperback tomorrow. Check that out. It's great reading and it will get you thinking. And he is, as you just heard, just an incredibly, incredibly uh thoughtful guy.