Markets Managing Confusion Courtesy of the Fed - podcast episode cover

Markets Managing Confusion Courtesy of the Fed

Mar 27, 20239 min
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Episode description

Nancy Tengler, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at Laffer Tengler Investments, reflects on a wild week for the markets and shares her investment strategy.
Hosts: Carol Massar and Jess Menton. Producer: Paul Brennan. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

It was another wicked week full of twist and turns of the financial markets, a bite of flow bank headlines, and of course, as you know, more today. So let's get a look at the week that was, thoughts as we head into the weekend with us right now, as Nancy Tangler, CEO and chief investment officer at Laffert Tangler Investments, and she joins us via zoom from Scottsdale, Arizona. Nancy Jess was like, we gotta talk to her, We gotta

talk to you, We gotta talk to Nancy. So we're glad to have you wrap up the week that was. As we are sitting here on this Friday, an hour after the market closed, or an hour and a half after the market close, what is top of mind for you? Well, thanks so much, Carol and Jess, thanks for suggesting me. I think that what I'm concerned about is not the banking system, but the lack of regulatory supervision and continuity

of messaging. I think Janet Yellen really sort of stepped in it yesterday when she sort of walked back that all deposits are guaranteed and we're not considering that while Powell is saying exactly the opposite that kind of confusion. The market did seem to finally shake off end of day, but it's a little bit troubling, and I think something

that we're really watching. I also thought the presser was not Powell's best I know there's a lot of people that disagree with me, but there was a lot of I don't knows, and a real lack of willingness to sort of engage on the question of fiscal policy, which we think has clearly driven inflation or at least fanned

the flames. So we're watching all of those things. But generally, we've been pretty optimistic since the fourth quarter when we began adding to our technology holdings and really adding risk back in, and that has really been a good decision in the near term and we hope a good decision for the long term. So if you feel that way, how did you feel about the Financial Stability Oversight Council

coming out and after a meeting the Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. J. Powell was there as well as some other regulators, financial banking regulators here in the US, and they came out and said US banking system remains dound and resilient, and that the Council discussed efforts to monitor financial developments. Our Craig Touris says it felt kind of flat. How do you feel for them to have an unscheduled meeting today

and that's what they come out. Well, I think what we've learned from this regime of regulators is that and FED participants is that what they say is not necessarily what they mean. And by that I mean Chair Powell. I mean, I hope I'm wrong, but I think he goes down as one of the worst Federal Reserve chairman in our history. And the reason I say, yeah, he's been ethically wrong at every turning point and then doesn't seem to acknowledge those mistakes and just kind of continues

along making statements. So that's why I'm troubled, because I don't know you can believe from what they say. I mean, if you look at the two year yield, the two year yield has led on the way up the FED, as it always does, by the way, and it's leading on the way down while the Feds still repeating rhetoric that I don't think they're going to be able to

deliver on. And that's been the case all the way through. Remember, we're not even thinking about thinking about raising rates, and the rate hike came almost on the heels of that we won't go seventy five, and a week later we went seventy five. Two weeks ago, he said, you know, we're at fifty basis points. We think, you know, higher for longer, And that turned out to really be the

final straw on the camel's back. I mean, not taking away the fact that SPB was, you know, notoriously wrong about their asset liability match, but I just think he has a credibility problem, and the market is if you look at risk assets, the market seems to not be listening anymore. And because you brought up PAL, I have to ask, what about Janet Yellen? How are you feeling

about her so far this week? Yeah, I think I think she's made an you know, she stepped in it basically, Yes, I mean she she contradicted herself within two days, and that that isn't and and seems to be very political, as I would argue, so does Pale to some extent. And so that's a worry too, because you know, we really want I mean, Yellen isn't a political and appointee, So I don't fault her for that, but she just

doesn't come across as leading. She comes across as as reading from a page, and that that I think the really troubled to market yesterday and we saw that in in the mid day. I do feel like this mirror is what we talked about with Chris Whalen earlier in terms of I mean, he's his feeling is the FED needs to be cutting rates at this point, that the exposure potentially of banks when it comes to the move up that we've seen in just one year, and potentially

the impact it could have on more banks. What what what would you say we need to all be as investors focusing on right now, Nancy, Well, we know the economy. By the way, I agree with that. I think they should have paused at the last meeting they you know, he has also said that there is not a lagged effect on monetary policy and that monetary supply and the growth of the monetary supply has no impact on inflation.

So there's a lot I disagree with him on. But I think we know that the economy is slowing, and in that environment, you really want to be focused on companies that can deliver earnings growth, and I think that is why investors have I mean, that was why we returned to technology in the fourth quarter. I mean, we had holdings, but we added to them because that's that's where I want to be positioned in a slowing economic environment.

And then it really matters which companies you own. And as an illustration of that, just just consider the performance of Nvidia versus Intel. You know, on the surface, both semiconductor companies, very different baseline business, very different management teams, and so we're looking for the kind of companies that can have proven they can navigate through a slowing economy.

And we're not adding to banks. In here. We were underweight the industry within the financial sector, and we remained so and have been adding to other names like American Express and Chubb Insurance. Have you been buying technology again still,

because we've certainly seen some of the fang names. I don't know if you can call them fang names anymore because they've changed their names, but I mean, have you been buying because that's one of the things that I highlighted that we've really seen a kick up in a

couple of these names in the last few weeks. Yeah, well so, Carol, we were buying in the fourth quarter, and I actually sold some right before the FED, before the press press conference, and just trimmed back because we were we were overweight of what our target was for the individual stocks. But we still hold them enthusiastically. And that by thang, I mean we don't own Meta, but you know that consumer I'm sorry, communication services, but we

do own. Our theme is really around old economy companies that are embracing the digital revolution, and the digital economy is now ten and a half percent of GDP and growing, and the companies that supply the digital solutions. So we like names like Service Now that's one of our largest holdings, Palo out A network, Broadcom which is an AI, and enterprise cloud Play, and I can't even remember that other names. It's kind of it's okay, it's been that kind of

a day, a week, two weeks. Yeah, I really want to know, Nancy, because obviously this is a million dollar question when it comes to capitulation, whether or not we bottom so far. But when you're looking at the SMP five hundred up one more than one percent this week, the NASAC one hundred up about two percent, but yet there's still a lot of negative sentiment out up with that. What is going on? Break this down for us? And do we need to see more of an inflection point

happen here in the equity markets. Yeah, so we really haven't seen what would be classically defined as capitulation Jess, But we but we are at record barishness kind of metrics. If you look at the AAII or the fear Greed Index UM, individual investors are very negative and institutional investors

are also very negative. That is usually a great time to be buying stocks because they you know that it's the contrary indicator, uh, that that really is very consistently pointing you in the right direction by having the wrong view. And so when when sentiment gets this bad, that that is a time when when brave investors should step in because it's usually followed by periods about performance. So I think what you're seeing is just, you know, the same

thing that we've been talking about, inconsistent policies. UM. You know, the the U of MISS survey was was pretty negative. But then of course you know inflation um expectations are still grounded. People are seeing improvements in their real purchasing power because wages have gone up and inflation is coming down, but there are still a lot of variables that have people disturbed and uncomfortable, and I think that always affects the investing. You desire to get in and buy stocks.

It's the best time to do it, however, Well, Warren Buffett would agree with you, probably as well. Nancy Tangler, thank you so much, Chief investment officer at Laffard Tangler Investments, joining us via zoom from Scottsdale, Arizona. Really appreciate you weighing in there.

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