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Welcome to Bloomberg Markets.
I'm Vonni Quinn with Tim Stenebek on this Friday, July fifth, post non farm payrolls and of course a lot to talk about. It's not just post jobs data today, Tim, Yeah, we thought.
It was going to be kind of a quiet week, right, but not really. We have big UK election results. We're going to talk about that, Biden holding a campaign at rally a little bit later. We'll bring that to you live as we do get it. And of course those payroll numbers fine.
Exactly and markets that are on the move.
And next week we already get into earning season and we have fed Ja Powell speaking, so we really are ramping up the activity here and it is interesting to see stocks on the move with the NOWSDAK one hundred now up nine tenths of one percent. But just to repeat those numbers in case somehow you might have missed them. Today we had June non farm payrolls up two hundred and six thousand, but some revisions downward to some previous months, the unemployment rate at four point one percent, but not
triggering the sum rule. Let's get to somebody who knows a lot more about the inner workings of the non farm payrolls report and how it's impacting bond markets and heels. Michael McKee joins us now in studio, and Michael, the revisions were very important. Are they typically this important to the bond market?
Not typically, But basically, this is one of the largest sets of revisions. Say go back and revise the prior two months that we have seen in one hundred and eleven thousand jobs taken away is quite a bit. So basically it sort of evens out the number we got today to the last two months and suggests that the economy and the labor market are still relatively strong, but not as strong as the Fed might have thought.
I'm guessing My question, though, Mike, is is really about how when things go from bad news being good news to bad news actually being bad news. Because the labor market weekning is good news for the Fed. I mean, this was a Fed friendly report. Look at the bond market, no question. But at what point does they do they start to see too much softness in the jobs market.
That's a good question. They predicted four point one percent, which is what we have by the end of the year. Now does it stay at four point one percent or does it continue to worsen? That's going to be the big question. Does the Psalm rule come into play? Does the Psalm rule even apply in the current macroeconomic situation?
Should later col her.
See if she'll.
Because the other half of this is that wages are still rising three point nine percent year over your basis, even if you're looking at the CPI instead of the fedce PCE. Workers are still getting ahead in terms of pay over inflation. So the good news and there's bad news.
So they are still getting ahead, Michael, But at least that didn't take up, right, three point nine percent you know year over year, point three percent month over month is not enough to calm the Fed that you know, inflation won't.
Be taking up at least thanks to wages.
Well, we're not there yet.
The Fed looks at maybe three and a half percent, closer to three as a stable level of wage gains that would It's the level you would want to see if you had two percent inflation, which is their target. So they're still thinking that's a little bit high. But the progress in coming down, especially with the labor market cooling, and a lot of the labor market cooling we saw today was in the services sector, which has bothered the
FED because that their primary input price is wages. So if we're seeing wages come down a little bit and fewer jobs, it's going to take some of the wage pressure off going forward.
Okay, the June payrolls report is behind us. Let's move to next week when we hear from j.
Powell.
He's going to do his semi annual Monitor Policy Report to the Senate and the House, and then we get June consumer price prices out on Thursday.
Yeah, it's quite quite a week. It's going to be quite a week. I think the CPI is going to be more of the focus. J Powell is probably not going to give an indication of where the Fed's going to go. He will even probably dodge questions about July. And nobody thinks they're going to do anything in July, and the question about September is how do these inflation reports come in between now and the September FED meeting. And so that's why the market's going to pay more
attention to CPI than to Powell. But it'll be interesting to hear what he has to say about how the FED is thinking about the progress that they have made so far.
You know those commentators who say the Fed should already be on the move. I'm thinking Neil Dota, mommadala area and so on.
They are, you know, even think it was more get on with it already is I think what he said exactly what he said.
The fear is that they end up behind the curve. And those are the people who would be looking at the PSALM rule, which, just to just to explain it a little bit, it's the three month moving average of the unemployment rate minus the lowest three month moving average number of the past twelve months. Sounds complicated, Yeah, it's not that bad. You could do it on an Excel spreadsheet.
Hopefully Clauda doesn't give us anyway.
If you get half a percent rise, then in theory from the low in theory, you're in recession. However, you have to look at why the unemplated employment rate is rising. Normally in a recession, it's because jobs are going away. In this case, jobs aren't going away, but more people are going into the labor market, and so there's a
greater supply and we have a higher unemployment rate. And not to predict what Claudia is going to say, but I think she has noted that this is a question about the accuracy of the PAM rule in this particular situation.
Yeah, she's absolutely saying that, you know, maybe this is something that we should be watching closely, but that there could also be, of course, exceptions to the rule that has proved you know, pretty golden stuff.
If we hit the sm rule, it doesn't matter whether Claudia Sam exactly thinks it's accurate or not. The markets are going to freak out anyway, because that's what they do.
Yes, exactly, particularly the last eighteen months or so. Michael, Thank you so much. Michael McKee. There are senior correspondent there on all things economy and jobs related. Let's move to somebody else now who knows a lot about this area. Jane o Ites, a senior policy advisor at Working Nation that's a nonprofit media organization focused on employment. She's also, by the way, a former US Department of Labor official,
I believe in the Obama administration. So, Jane, what was the takeaway for you today on the state of the labor market in the United States right now and how much it might be weakening.
Well, I think, just as Michael said, I was thrilled to see more people entering the labor force. That labor market participation rate has been just, you know, stubbornly stuck, so it's great to see it come up a little bit. I was disappointed to see the huge drop again in temporary help because you know that temporary area is a way that a lot of people get back into the workforce or get their first job.
Why do you think that's happening, Jane, Well, I.
Think the easy answer Tim would be to say, it's all the layoffs in tech. You know, a lot of the temporary workforce was specifically in tech. You had places that trained people that had an associates or a bachelor's degree in a specific thing, you know, like they took they did data analytics, or they did some kind of data visualization software. And since all the layoffs are happening, there's not that need for new talent and in the
tech space. But I'm watching it because you know it's down five hundred thousand plus in the last three years. That's a lot of a decline.
For sure.
It is Jane, what more could the administration be doing right now?
You know, it comes.
Out every month and says, look, we've been doing a fantastic job. This doesn't happen. It happens proactively, and our policies have created all these jobs.
Is there more that could be done?
Well? I think the only evidence that we see this month that things are starting to work is the uptick in construction. You know, construction and manufacturing have been relatively flat, so that increased this month. In construction. The twenty eight thousand, which is over what the average has been, is a good sign that the infrastructure money is really starting to kick in at the local levels. So I'll take that as a ray of hope and hope that it's a trend that really continues, Jane.
President Biden, weighing in this morning after those numbers came out, he said, quote, we have more work to do. Wages are growing faster than prices, and more Americans are joining the workforce. Too many Americans are still feeling squeezed by the cost of living, so that's certainly his concern, and obviously it's very political. The first question the debate was all about the economy last Thursday night. What more from
your view? And I know you focus on at working nation, you focus on the future of work, but what more on your view you you can sort of match worker salaries with price increases.
Hardest thing tim in that space is things like chicken and eggs and gas can start to come down, but rents are and hassing prices are still stubborn. So people are seeing that, especially young workers who are trying to buy their first house or move out of their parents'
home and get their first apartment. So I think it's going to take a lot of time, and I do think there's got to be continued work in Congress, you know, to make sure that there are policies in place to make sure that first time home buyers get a good chance at getting that first home.
Jane, the payoff between inflation and wage gains, right, it's a finely balanced one for the worker. What is the sweet spot where workers are getting enough to cover inflation but they're not stoking inflation by getting those rises.
Yeah, I think the best thing is when we see people working more full time people, you know, I think one of the great things is a lot of workers. That number came down in what we call discouraged workers, came down by almost five hundred thousand. I mean, so I think people are moving from temporary employment, from part time employment into full time jobs. That's great because it
takes the pressure off on things like healthcare. You know, people get benefits, people have paid leave, they can have sick days if their kid gets sick or if they get sick. So I think that's something that's going to remove some of the pressure. I think the other thing is more, you know, more stores have to join the band. The band that's joining saying, like the Walmart and targets of the world, saying they're going to make an effort
to lower prices. I think the price increases that we saw during COVID in goods are still stubbornly high, and I wonder if there's not ways to bring those prices down.
Gina, I know that one area of concern for you is the idea that you the youngest people who are eligible to work aren't necessarily working right now, and when you think about those jobs that that teenagers get sixteen to nineteen years old, talk about why that's a focus for you.
We don't hear a lot about that, Kim.
You know me too well, right, that's the bottom line, Fannie. This has been a drum beat that I've had for years, even when I was in the administration and working nation does a lot trying to cover these young people as well. If you don't learn those employability skills, think of your first job. You know, you learned how to get there on time, You learned how to do your job, You learn how to work with others, work in a team. If you don't get those skills, where schools just can't
do it. It's unfair for us to look at high schools, community colleges, four year institutions, they and say they should be doing all these things. They can treat, they can train us, they can teach us to think, you know, to problem solve, but they can't teach us the things
we learn uniquely on the job. So you are right in double the high, double digit unemployment in that sixteen to nineteen year old age group is going to pay deficits to us in the future, we're going to see those people struggle to really get a foothold in the workforce.
Where are we as well on minority hiring. You know, there had been some you know, progress made on that, but it feels like it's potentially stolled.
What can happen in that regard.
Look, I think that there's still some progress. I mean, if you looked at the labor market, participation rates, you know, Latinos and blacks are really increasing every month. But the bottom line is the unemployment rate is still stubbornly higher among people of color than it is of whites. I'm
not quite sure what that is. I certainly feel that as construction adds jobs, construction, you know, both in commercial construction and home construction, have always been open to hiring people of color, even hiring oftentimes people who may have a criminal record. So I mean, I think that's all positive news. I think the negative news is until we see the other sector that's really been great on higher people across the board of color, men and women, manufacturing.
Until we see some real job growth there, I don't think we're going to make any real improvement in those numbers.
Jane.
We only have about forty seconds left, But very briefly, we're waiting for President Biden to make remarks at a rally in Wisconsin right now. What do you want to hear from him on the jobs front? What does he need to say to convince voters to go vote for him come November.
So I think he's going to say he has to say that he's going to concentrate on this and he has to motivate people to come back to work and motivate employers to continue the hiring trend.
All right, Jane Oaates, thank you so much for joining us on this Friday afternoon. This Job's Friday here in New York. Jane joining us from Arlington, Virginia. That's jaye ooas Senior policy advisor at Working Nation. It's a nonprofit media organization focused on employment. Also a former US Department of Labor official in the Obama administration.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Easter Listen on Apple car Play and then Bright Auto with a Bloomberg Business act or want us live on YouTube.
Bondi'll certainly down across the curve as we look at the two year down ten basis points, Vonnie, the thirty year down five basis points.
Yeah, it was a huge day for years.
The whole curve shifted and again, as you say, the two tenths part of the curve, perhaps more so than the long end.
Let's bring in somebody that would tell us a lot more.
About that, and that is in studio, Michael McKenzie of Bloomberg News and of course with us remotely is Bloomberg Intelligence rate strategist to Ira Jersey, Michael, let me come to you first. How big of a move is this in yields? Considering we've seen several round trips for yields this year.
I think it's so pretty much a range found market. That said, the softening we are seeing labor, he's sort of called the market now more comfortable pricing pretty much close to fret us responsible to rate clups this year. September remains live, and.
You know, Michael, we're gonna have to they're still working on getting your mic up. Excuse me, I'm going to jump in. Was genius what we're saying. I'm going to get you. You'll get to ask the question again, Vonnie, But I do want to bring in Ira Jersey, who's with us from New Jersey. He's Bloomberg Bloomberg Intelligence senior rates strategists. Same question over to you that that Vonnie asked.
Since we have seen such a round trip when it comes to rates, how do you look at today's news and the and the drop in rates that we're seeing across the curve, Ira.
Yeah, I think the Fed thinks that the or the market things. I should say that the Fed thinks that they need an excuse in order to cut interest rates. And when you have, you know, a slowing job market, then certainly that is one of the key indicators. So not a huge surprise that we've had a bit of a rally on the somewhat softer data, particularly that little tickup in the unemployment rate, although it really was pretty
incremental overall. You know, the fact that the front end is rallying so much is a signal not so much that that the Fed is necessarily going to start cutting early, that the Federal Reserve might cut more than the market was thinking before. So when you look at the you know, all throughout the curve and shorter term interest rate, it's like like so for futures for example, which are now the new short term interust rate instrument to look at
and not everyone uses to hedge. You look at at one year and eighteen months out from today, and those of rallied the most, and I think that that's a signal that, look, no one really cares in the macro if they cut in September or cut in November or cut in December. It's a matter of where they get
to at the end. And we're starting to think that, hey, maybe instead of only cutting the three and a half percent, maybe they're only going to cut the three percent, And that's starting to get price in the market now.
Well, if that is fascinating, well, Michael McKenzie, let's bring you back in here, because it'd be nice if you reacted.
To what Ira said, and also, you know, explain to us a.
Little bit about why we are seeing the jobs report weakening ever so slightly but such a big move in the bond market, because you know, it may not be a big move to us this year, but in general, an eight basis point move is it's a really big move.
It is a big move, but you have to remember we had July fourth, yesterday, a lot of people aren't in the market today. I think also, you've got two big events to come next week. You've got to pals semi annual testimony to Congress and then you'll have the CPI, And I think the CPI date is what the market is probably weighing. You get confirmation that they could push beyond more than just pricing into cuts for this year.
I think the other interesting thing here is the market still isn't pricing in one hundred basis points it cuts that the Fed itself expects for next year, and that'll be the next leg of this trade. If you do get signs that inflation is cooling, the labor market is continue to cool down here, then you're going to see the markets start to get more comfortable price meeting what the Fed is expecting for next year, and that will
help the front end. And it is very much a market that I think is the front end is going to lead the charge here. The uncertainty, of course, is what's just how much can the back end rally? Given the election is going to increasingly come into focus and as someone explained to me today, you're going to be a remind all the time about the spending is not
going to slow down. The deficits are going to continue to rise, and you're going to see I think a restoration of a positive term premium in the back end of the curve.
Hey, Michael, one of the reasons we love talking to you is exactly that you do talk to people every day in the bond market, people who are buying and selling, people who are participating. But on a day like today, the day after fourth of July, when you said not many people are actually at the office today, who.
Is who are you talking to? What are they saying?
Strategists and investors, and they saw people who are monitoring the market. But I think in terms of being positioned, taking on new positions, putting new positions to work here, you're really going to have to see how the inflation call compans out from here. So I think next week is probably going to be more important. Also be interesting to hear what pow pal. Is he more a little bit more dubbish or does he kind of stick very tight and stay very very focused here and can say, look,
we want the optionality. We're still looking to do one at least one cut this year, and I think that's what the market needs to take on board. Too, but I'd say today's movement can be exaggerated given the thin liquidity.
For sure, IRA, What will Fletcher Powell want to convey to Congress next week?
Yeah, I doubt that he's going to shift significantly from the June meeting. I mean, the preponderance of the data is actually been fed friendly right where things are slowing down, but they're not slowing down quickly. And you know, he can point to a lot of the data suggesting that, look, you know, the job market is getting more into balance.
I think we'll use that again.
He'll more or less stick to the minutes the Monetary Policy Report, and remember it's a seventy odd page report.
I haven't been able to read the whole thing yet, but.
The Monetary Policy Report just came out a couple hours ago, and you know that didn't say anything. At least the executive summary didn't say anything much different than what they said in the minutes that came out on Wednesday. So I think he'll stick to that script. I think he has to, because remember he's talking for the whole committee, not necessarily his own his own beliefs. Now, if he's asked, what do you personally think, I think that that could
be a little bit more more interesting. Also, remember he starts with the Senate this time, so Q and A afterwards might be a little bit more technocratic, a little bit more technical as opposed to the political grandstanding that often happens in the House of Representatives, which will be the following day.
I mean, you still have all weekend where you can sit back and enjoy time outside reading that reading that report. So Monday, well, we'll expect a full summary when when we speak to you, but before then, I want to get your thoughts on the way that RAID investors have thought about cuts this year after today's data. It was a mixed report. We spent a good portion of time at the top of our show, Ira going over it.
How did you see any sort of reset in how traders are thinking about cuts from the FED?
A slight reset for this year, you know, making higher probabilities of September like September's now I would say a live meeting.
I still suggest.
That that the data might not be quite weak enough that the Fed's comfortable starting to cut in September. Keep in mind that the words to listen for for with Powell next week after these data that we received is do we have risks of cutting early and risks of cutting too late. So, and he was asked specifically earlier this week about whether or not September was when they were going to start cutting rates, and he said, look, you know, every.
Meeting is live. We're going to let the data. We're going to let the data lead us.
So it really does depend on the next two months of data princess to whether or not September is when they first cut. But you know, quite frankly, unless you trade those instruments, it doesn't really matter. I'm looking more like the late twenty twenty five instruments because that's really what tends to move to two year note, the five year note, and the whole rest of the treasury yields curve.
Yeah, Michael, I want to come to you on that because it's fascinating.
It used to be that we'd watch the five year five year forward a lot, and now, as I was saying, it's really you know, one year and eighteen month forwards, where else should we be looking for indications?
Well, I think that's that's where you start. I think there is a debate in the market whether or the FED may have to actually cut a bit more aggressively than what what is currently the consensus, because if things really start to slow down, you know, as someone explained to me today, it's better that you actually be a little faster with the cuts to start and then step
back and wait to see how things pan out. So I mean, then over the next eighteen months is where you're going to see I think the majority of cuts because I think longer term, you can make a pretty good argument that you know, inflation will probably be a little stickier. You've got supply chain issues still evolving. We still haven't really got beyond the COVID experience in terms of how that's changed the economy, and I think you
can argue that our star is probably all. You know, the long term mutual rate is probably higher in this environment, particularly with the spending. There's still stimulus coming through the economy from the spending we've seen under the Biden administration as.
Well, Michael, In terms of next catalyst that you're watching, next week is a big week. We of course here from J Powell on capital hell, we alluded to that moments ago, but also we get inflation data coming on Thursday.
What's the bigger news for you.
I think you see inflation numbers, Okay, I think that's where the market becomes.
What's really interesting.
Look at the bob market.
The moment is that it has been unwilling to go beyond pricing in more than two cuts, and that's that's what we began this year with six cuts priced. The market has been actually very very I think disciplined. It's been It's been burnt pretty hard in the past by all these trying to anticipate these Fed pivots. They really want to see the inflation numbers, and if inflation numbers are cooperating and moving in that right direction, that will give the Fed the ability to actually go in September.
So that's why you know it's live, but it's not fully priced.
We're going to thinking too.
I think makes a good I think Mike makes a good point there, because you know, the FED needs cover at some level, right because some indicators are still suggesting that the economy is running pretty quickly and if they start to cut interest rate's people are worried and a lot of investors that I talked to you are worried about a reacceleration of inflation if the FED does cut too early, So so you need to see those inflation numbers come down and that is going to continue to
be the key because that's going to give them the cover to be able to cut interest rates, and especially if they cut as early as September.
Yeah, I mean you probably know what I was going to ask is about the sum rule. We're going to be speaking with Claudia later and she allows for you know, exceptions to the rule and so on. But I mean, does today's data make it any more likely that we're closer to a recession?
Maybe a little bit, but you know, typically and look, I've gone back in history and looked at like percent changes in the employment in both the household survey as well as the as well as the Establishment survey, and all of those are running at levels that we had like in the mid two thousands or in the nineteen nineties.
You know, call it like, you know, when when you're growing.
The the employment by about one percent one point five percent per month on an annualized basis, that's typical, and that's right where we are now.
The question is is will it decelerate further?
And that's where things like FED forecasts and and everyone's forecast will matter as to whether or not you think the economy is cooling and having a soft landing, or whether or not we are going to go into recession.
It's not unusual, Vonnie.
Keep in mind for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates when payrolls are still positive but declining. So but you know, at the same time, two hundred thousand jobs being created a month. If you believe that number, which you know, I know anamog and some folks a Bloomberg economics question the.
Validity of it. But if that is correct, then the economy's fine.
Right at least the job market and that part of the Fed's mandate is not bad with a four percent unemployment rate.
Hey, forty seconds left, Michael mackenzie, I want to end because we're focused on politics. We're going to hear from President Biden in just a few minutes. What are you watching when it comes to rates? If there were to be some big surprise come in the coming days, I.
Think watch the curve whether we go. Last week got a pretty nasty bear steepener. Today we're getting a bullish steepener, which is the preferred way the market likes to see the curve steepen, but a bear a steepener be problematic.
All right, both of you, thank you so much for keeping us on the straight and narrow or on the curve.
I would say we talk about the jobs data today.
That is Bloomberg Intelligence Rates strategist Our A Jersey remotely with us and in studio.
Bloomberg News is Michael McKenzie.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at two pm Easter on Apple car Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Tina Fordham, steopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.
Tina, first, before we get.
To the UK or anything like that, can I ask you your impression of what's going on in the United States right now?
It sort of took a left turn.
We were all highly focused on everything court related to Donald Trump, and suddenly now we're focused on whether President Biden could even run for another term.
Well, for me, it was in highly consistent with what we were thinking.
About this election.
There are too many variables, too many new factors and fluidity in this race for it to follow a typical US elections playbook, and that's exactly how it's playing out.
Things are starting to come loose.
Yeah, I guess the question is is how much more loose do they become before things start to, I guess, become tighter. And that's certainly a question a lot of Democrats are probably asking right now, Tina.
Absolutely, But what we're observing is how campaigns and leaders, no matter how dedicated they are, can't control everything about the process.
That's what we're witnessing now.
I mean, I've encountered a fair amount of hostility for my observations straight after the debate, saying I think that that performance was a game changer and age which.
Is not reversible.
Of course, Biden will do better in other contexts, other environments.
He is a very competent politician with.
A great deal of experience, and has presided over an important economic recovery as far as I'm concerned. But Americans are right to ask if he can serve until twenty twenty nine, and it isn't a matter for his comms team to simply provide reassurance.
Yeah, exactly, Tina, And just by the end of today, we'll have a lot of commentary from Joe Biden. As I say, we're waiting for his comments from Madison, Wisconsin. But if it were to happen that Joe Biden steps aside and somebody else comes in beat Kamala Haaras or Gama Newsom or whoever it may be, what would that do for Donald Trump's chances of winning? And I mean, we have head to head poling right now, but we are still very far away from election day.
When it comes to US elections.
Well we're very far.
And yet I think I'd make the case that if a change is going to take place on the Democratic ticket, it needs to happen in the next few weeks. The NATO Summit in two weeks time is a major signpost.
Actually it's next week, isn't it.
The US will be hosting in Washington world leaders, including the new UK Prime Minister, Secure Starmer, and possibly a new French Prime minister. Almost certainly new French prime minister. Is a lot of change in the global environment. That would also be an opportune time for the US head of state to speak to allies. But that may be a faster timetable than the White House and the Biden team are prepared to look at.
We do have an article out on the Bloomberg about allies being concerned overseas about the current president's ability to win election come November. I'm wondering what kind of pressure, if any, that could put on Biden to step aside.
Well, there'll be reluctance from US allies to put on any pressure, that's for sure. But part of the reason, if not the main reason, why US allies, and indeed my CEO and investor clients here in Europe are so concerned about Biden's state is because they are so worried
about a return of Trump to the White House. And that is a really consistent view across the political spectrum, just because of the feared implications of a Trump two point zero on the global trade environment, tariffs and security. Remember that here in Europe, security, with the war in Ukraine as well as the Middle East number one consideration, and US consistency on that is very much in focus.
Tina, you probably didn't think you were coming on to talk us. Given the British election that we've just had. We suddenly have a new regime. Does anything change in Britain radically pretty soon, and I'm talking about anything from relationship with Europe, to fiscal policy to any kind of social policy.
Well, I think British voters certainly hope for a change. They gave the Conservative Party, which remember the Conservatives had been in power for fourteen years, a real drubbing last night. It was something to behold. And one of the things that will be surprising for your US viewers is that Rishi Sunac is already out of Downing Street. The removal van has been kir Starmer has met with King Charles and it's all change the.
Same with the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
So there's no grace period, there's no lame duck period, there's not even a transition period. The new team will be in their seats in the coming days.
A Labor party government with a majority.
Represents a signific can change, particularly a departure with Brexit. And remember that's probably the signature achievement as such for the outgoing Conservative Party. But the cupboard is also bear for cir Care Starmer, and he's really kind of made the biggest promises about returning the UK to growth, growth, here is languishing and restoring public services. So business is actually backing labor for the first time that I can remember.
That's a part of his speech. It was this morning for me, but this afternoon for you. That really struck me earlier today was the idea that government is there to help and that the services are there for the people they are elected. I mean, you don't necessarily hear that here in the United States. A lot of people think government really gets in the way, and that's certainly the philosophy of a lot of folks here in the US.
Can you explain how things like the NHS have been under pressure and how it's such a loved organization and how that was so crucial to labor's victory here.
Yeah, crumbling public services appear in the top three concerns for British voters.
It will surprise Americans.
On the right to understand that the NHS is a much loved national institution. People look with horror at the United States and the idea of medical bankruptcies doesn't exist in this country. And so finding a way for the NHS to be more efficient in light of a you know, an aging population and everything else is a major task, to be sure, and one that you know, I think any incoming government would have to be looking at tax increases.
But the American viewers.
Need to resist the temptation to, you know, to kind of put everything in US terms. Labor Party is has got socialists in its name. It's it has taken a lot of steps to cultivate ties in the city of London, our equivalent of Wall Street, and frankly, the Conservative Party has not been a party of business for some time.
With Brexit that kind of through through financial services under the bus, Labor will have no honeymoon, and their landslide victory is probably more of a you know, of a kicking to the outgoing Conservatives, as someone called it a loveless landslide, and I think that that's probably fair. But also it has been a completely peaceful, civilized, drama free transition, and I think that should be inspiring for US Americans.
Yes, a drama free transition. Gosh, when did we last have one of those?
I'm really not quite sure. Tina.
Thank you so much. Can't wait to keep in touch with you throughout the next three months. Astina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.
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