Hi, it's Carol and Tim's here too, and today we want to introduce you to the Bloomberg Daybreak podcast.
We certainly do every day. Nathan Hager, Karen Moscow, and Amy Morris bring you a roundup of the top stories from Wall Street to Washington and around the world. It's all in the Daybreak podcast feed by six am each morning.
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Good morning, I'm Abe Morris and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.
We begin with oil rising to start the new year, Iran sending a warship to the Red Sea and an escalation of tensions in the region. The show of force comes after the US Navy destroyed three Hoothy votes which we're attempting to board a container on New Year's Day. Elizabeth Kendall is a Middle East specialist from Cambridge University and says the two are clearly interlinked.
Aeron is puppeteering Hamas the Whosies and of the movements like hesbula in the Middle East and the Housy slogan indeed, is includes the words death to Israel and a curss on the Jews, so it's very much aligned with Hamas's more militant and extreme war wing.
Cambridge University's Elizabeth Kendall checking oil right now, Nimex crude oil up more than two percent or a dollar forty nine now trading at seventy three dollars and thirteen cents a barrel.
Care Well, amy oil isn't the only thing on the move this morning. We're also seeing Bitcoin on the rise, following through on last year's massive rally, and we get more from Bloomberg Markets reporter Joe Easton it.
Is up another four percent at the moment, at the highest level since April sixth, above forty five thousand dollars for the first time in two years. This is due to the expectation of the direct investment from this ETF, so that is boosting sentiment and a lot of positivity. People looking for more technical levels for that one to keep going higher.
Bloomberg joeys And says bitcoin has risen over twenty percent since has started December, as that January tenth deadline for the Securities in Exchange Commission to give its blessing for a spot Bitcoin.
ETF draws closer.
Checking Bitcoin right now, it's at forty five seven hundred dollars.
Over in Europe, stocks are also hired to kick off the new trading year. Let's get the latest from Bloomberg Daybreak euro banker Stephen Carrol.
Stephen, good morning, Amy and Karen. The tensions in the Red Sea are playing into the market narrative in Europe today. Shares and the shipping giant Maersk have risen after it stopped using that key trade route for forty eight hours following the weekend attack on one of its vessels. Higher oil prices are also helping to lift oil majors, making energy one of the best performing sectors on the stock
six hundred. More broadly, it's the Spanish and Italian markets which are out performing, boosted by a rise in bank shares In London. Stephen Carrol Bloomberg Radio, All.
Right, Stephen, thank you all. Back here in the US, Wall Street returns to a holiday shortened week to kick off the new trading year, and we get a look ahead from Bloomberg.
Stirly the s and P five hundred index sits within striking distance of its first in two years. But a key challenge for markets is the outlook for the economy and corporate earnings. Michael Binger is the president of Gradient Investments.
The economy I think is very resilient. Jobs are driving that corporate profits are supposed to grow about ten eleven percent. And valuations, I mean they're not really cheap, but they're not super expensive either in the markets right now.
Among this week's earnings reports Constellation Brands and Walgreens Boots Alliance in New York. Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio.
Thank you, Charlie.
In twenty twenty three, some of Wall Street's biggest names got it wrong with their predictions for how markets would perform.
So will they fare.
Better in twenty twenty four, Bloomberg has compiled more than six hundred and fifty calls from strategists in Today's Big Take. Sam Potter is a senior markets editor for Bloomberg.
Most strategists to Wall Street see the interest rate tykes of the past eighteen months to two years. Finally starting to economies generally around the world stock slow, and that will kind of pre run a central bank pivot roundabout mek Ye.
Bloomberg Senior Markets editor Sam Potter adds that strategists see the main risks to the markets inflation and the US election.
Well. In corporate news, amy China's BYD may have just overtaken Tesla as the world leader in EV sales. It's still more than five hundred and twenty six thousand fully electric vehicles in the fourth quarter. Bloomberg's John Lewis more from Beijing.
When BYD Tesla, it'll do two things. I think that's gonna put this company into the consciousness of people around the world in a way that that company has not had ever before. The number two thing it does is it really underscores how dominant a position China, not only as a market, but as a country with lots of companies producing electric vehicles, how dominant a position China has in that industry now.
And Bloomberg John Luisa's Tesla is estimated to I've delivered over four hundred eighty three thousand in the fourth quarter alone.
Speaking of China, President Xi Jinping has pledged to strengthen his country's economic recovery after a tough year Bloomberg's Jenny Marsh has more from Hong Kong.
This is Chi Jinping's New Years Eve's speech, and he normally uses it to so trumpet the achievements his nation's major in the year. And I think this speech really stood out for how candid he was being about these problems. It's the first time he's acknowledged that the struggles that twenty twenty three have brought. It also sort of underplayed in some ways the problems that are still lying ahead in twenty twenty four for the economy, and he didn't really have any sort of quick fixes for that.
Bloomberg Jenny Marsh says China is entering a pivotal period as policymakers try to boost growth, stabilize a crisis in the property market, and prevent deflation. Beijing is expected to target a growth goal of around five percent again in twenty twenty four.
Meanwhile, Amy the Biden administration has won another battle and its effort to try and slow Shina from building its own semiconductor industry.
We get more with the Bloomberg's Ed.
Baxter ASML Holding is canceled shipments of some of its machines to China. At the Biden request. This week's before the export bands on the high end chip making came into effect, the Dutch manufacturer had licenses to ship three top of the line deep ultraviolet lithography machines, but before the deadline it decided to cancel the orders. The US and allies have been trying to block access to the technology. Ed Baxter, Bloomberg Radio, Thank.
You care in time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael bar Good morning, Michael.
Good morning Amy. The death toll has now climbed to forty eight after a magnitude seven point six earthquakes struck Japan. The quake hit off the Noto Peninsula on Japan's northwest coast. This man at Tokyo resident and US national, was visiting Toyama when the quake hit.
First.
I just done it very slowly, and everybody kind of left it off, you know, they thought, oh, this is this is kind of humorous, you know, on New Year's Day, and then again it is just a violid shape.
The tremor was followed by hundreds of aftershocks, a plane is on fire right now on the runway of Tokyo's Hanada Airport. Authority say a large burst of fire erupted from the side of a Japan Airlines plane as a taxi on the runway. All of the three hundred and seventy nine passengers and crew were said to be safely evacuated. Israel Supreme Court struck down a key component of Prime Minister Benjamin etna Who's contentious judicious overhaul before the October
seventh of mass attack into southern Israel. The planned overhaul sparked months of mass protests threatened to trigger a constitutional crisis between the judicial and legislative branches of government. The FBI's Joint Terrorism Task Force is assisting police in Rochester, New York, to investigate a car crash that killed two people and injured five others outside of performing Arts theater in the early hours of New Year's Day. The crash
happened in front of the Kodak Center. It became a large scene due to a fire which had erupted as a result of the crash, and police also say several gas cans were found in and around the striking vehicle. Rochester Mayor Walek Evans.
I want to offer my condolences to those families, those individuals that lost their lives, and I asked the community to pay pray not only for those that have lost their lives, but also those that are injured.
Terrorism investigators are trying to determine if this was just a car accident or something far worse. New York City's effort to stop migrant buses has resulted in the buses arriving instead in neighboring New Jersey. Over the weekend, buses from Texas and Louisiana began dropping off asylum seekers at several New Jersey transit stations. From there, the asylum seekers
are believed to have taken trains to New York City. Edison, New Jersey, Mayor Sam Joshi says the buses are a major risk to health and security.
The solution for me, as the mayor of Edison, is not to point it off to another mayor.
Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg Jamie.
All right, thank you, Michael, And we do bring the news throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio and Now. You can get the news on demand whenever you want it. Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines at the click of a button. Get informed on your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot com plus Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Time now, but the Sports Report brought to you by Tri State Audi. For that, we bring in John stash Hour.
Thanks Amy Kevil of Terrific gains of the college football Playoffs semifinals overtime at the Roseball after Michigan tie to Alabama, the Lady touchdown in ot Wolverines had the ball first.
The shotgun Paul McGain this tiny peals said he's got the first out of more Portman's side. The five porm spiss way across.
The goal line.
Touch down Michigan seven, ten touchdown run. ESPN the call. Michigan then stop famacb Jalen Milroe on a fourth down and won twenty seven to twenty JJ McCarthy through three TV passes. And then came the Sugar Bowl where Washington never trailed that a thirteen point lead beenway through the fourth quartern. Texas rallied had four chances to take the lead the final fifteen seconds, but ended the game with three incompletions on the Husky survive thirty seven thirty one.
Their QB, Michael Pennix Junior threw for four hundred and thirty yards. Championship game next Monday in Houston, both Michigan and Washington will go in fourteen to oh if yest the ball, All Oregon forty five to six overlimitary boat next through five TD passes, sitters pull in Orlando, All Tennessee thirty five nothing over Iowa. LSU won to rely a quest in Tampa thirty five to thirty one over Wisconsin. Nick's happy to start the new year at the Garden.
After an O one three road trip. They beat Minnesota one twelve one oh six Julius Randall Port in thirty nine points. Og on Enobi made his next debut. He played thirty five minutes before founding out. He scored seventeen In Toronto.
R J.
Barrett and Emmanuel quickly debuted for their new team, scored nineteen and fourteen points in a Raptors win over Cleveland Outdoor Hockey in Seattle crowd of forty seven thousand to see the Kraken shout out Vegas three nothing. Johns Stasha went to Bloomberg Sports.
From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on SYRIASXAM, the Bloomberg Business app in Bloomberg dot com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Good morning.
I'm Amy Morris, and we are entering the first week of trading for twenty twenty four. As we do, most investment outlooks from major banks and advisors are predicting the same middle of the road scenario for the coming year, an economic slow down, a central bank of it, and a late year rebound. We're joined by Dennis Gartman, University of Akron and Doowment chairman and former publisher of The Gartman Letter to sort of set us straight on what
we can expect for the coming year. Now, Dennis, the dollar closed out it's worst year since twenty twenty, the S and P five hundred rows nine straight weeks.
Are these trends bound to continue?
I have my doubts as to the latter trend will continue. I think stocks are extremely overbought, and market has risen on an anticipation of three, four, five, six cuts in the overnight Fed funds rate by the Federal Reserve Bank. I have my doubts as to whether that will occur. I think that the Fed is done raising the overnight Fed funds rate. Of that, there's no doubt. But whether they're going to cut five or six times, I think
is very doubtful. I think we have to anticipate the fact that the Federal will delay any change in the overnight Fed funds rate lower to later this year. There's too much anticipation that the federalill begin cutting in the overnight funds rate by March. I think it'll be late in the summer, maybe early into the into the autumn before it happens, but we shall see. Time shall tell.
I think stocks, however, are aggressively overbought, have been for some while, and it seems to me this looks very similar to what happened in twenty twenty one twenty twenty two, when we reach the higher the market on the opening day of twenty twenty one and then ended up having a rather substantive decline in prices, So time shall tell, we'll see, but too much anticipation of too much easier possibilities on the part of the Fed that I don't think are going to happen.
Now, we have a job's report coming out on Friday. What are you watching for in that and how that might impact it?
Long ago I quit anticipating the over the employment rates because of the fact that we tend to see such huge numbers of revisions from one month to the next. But right now the market is anticipating an increase of about one hundred and seventy five to one hundred and eighty five thousand new jobs. We shall see if that if that occurs, but it's one of the most radically revised reports of the year. Every month the revisions are
forty to fifty thousand plus or minus. So right now the market is anticipating one hundred and seventy five to one hundred and eighty five thousand. Times shall tell.
Barkley is predicting a softest landing Vanguard JP Morgan expecting a mild recession, but you know that's what everybody predicted for twenty twenty three as well.
What's the difference now?
I was one of the people that expected to see a recession in twenty twenty three, and clearly we have not had that. The market is now anticipating the softest, the best of all kind of soft landings imaginable. I have my doubts as to whether that will occur, but that's what the market anticipates, that's what the stock prices have anticipated, and that's what the world generally anticipates. Whether whether it happens or not is up for debate. I
have my doubts, seriously, though. We are overextended to the upside. We were long overdue on a recession because of the FEDS tightening monetary policy over the course of the past several years, and there's always law wrong and reasonable legs between the monetary policy and economic activity. And I think we'll be recessionary before the end of the year, but I don't think it'll be a substance of one. I
think it'll be a very quiet one time. However, again, as I've said too many times already this morning Times.
Hotel, Yeah, I was about to ask you what kind of recession you were looking for.
You're expecting a softish landing.
Yeah, yes, I think it'll be a very soft one, a very minor one. We've seen these types of recessions before, but I think it'll be a very very quiet and not anything like we saw in seventy three, seventy four, not anything like we saw in eighty one eighty two, not anything like we saw in nine. But it'll be a recession, and it'll be a quiet increase in over in the unemployment rate to probably four or five percent before it's done.
What do you see with oil and gold in this new year?
Gold is opening up very strongly right now, and I think gold wants to go from the lower left to the upper right. It's been a bull market for a while, and I think gold wants to go higher. Clearly. It's heading about twenty one thousand before before too long. I think it goes to twenty two or twenty three thousand
before the year is out. I have been very bearish on crude oil for a while because the term structure has been overly overtly barished, with the front months leading on the downside and failing to gain upon the back months when the market when the market rallies. But now all of a sudden, we're starting to see the term structure beginning to change a little bit, and everybody's watching what's happening in the Gulf of Suez. I think that's
only going to get worse, not better. And for the first time in months, I'm actually not bearish of crude oil. I'm starting to turn bullish of a time shall tell. But this is the first time in months that I've actually been have not been burished on the crude oil market because of the changing nature of the term structure.
You are listening to Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
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I'm Amy Morris.
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