Inflation Tops 10% on Key Items That Americans Just Can't Avoid

You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. So safe to say our kids just cannot catch a break. Between the pandemic and being schooled at home for a long time, missing out on all important socialization for months at a time, and then the chronic shootings in schools and society where kids often end up being the target. It has been a

worldful of stress for our younger citizens. We did hear the House of Representatives yesterday passing and sweeping gun reform law, but it seems like it's not going to get past the Senate. Let's get into it and specifically what it

means for our nation's youth, joining us as dot or tomorrow. Mendelssohn, Director of the Center for Adolescent Health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health that is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg,

the founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Dr Medison, we wanted you on the program today because you're an expert in adolescent mental health, child psychology, and you can really give us an overview on what our nation's kids go through, not just if they you would experience a horrific event like this, but just preparing for events like this. When I was in school, we weren't doing drills for active shooters. Carol, I know it wasn't happening when you

were a Columbine. Happened my freshman year of high school, and I feel that was a sort of a changing moment um. How do we need to think about this in the context of mental health. Yeah, so thank you for having me. It's a pleasure to be with you today. And yes, you're absolutely right that these kinds of events have, you know, sort of cute and then ongoing impact for young people. And of course the young people who are most affected are either out of school where shooting has happened,

or you know, in community in some way. But even young people who may live far away are going to hear about these events through the media, and like you're saying, they may also be experiencing drills or other change procedures in their school. So I think it's important for parents to understand that this might raise anxieties and concerns for young people. And I think it's really important to sort of know your child as well as to be thinking

about their age and their developmental stage. So, you know, for very young children, you may decide you want to turn the news off, and you you know, you may want to sort of create space around this for children who are going to be hearing about this at school or through friends. Um, I think it's really important to create space for your child to talk about what they've heard,

what they're feeling, and what their questions are. Sometimes kids have misperceptions or fears about events that parents can really help to talk through. It's also important for parents to work through their own emotions for talking with children so that we can really be focused on on what our children's needs are and I think the more that we can provide you know, basic information that is in line with how old our kids are and kind of what they're ready to hear, that that can be really helpful

for young people well. And I do think about you know, we always talk about in our world, in our realm, about public private partnerships, and I do think about you know, mental well being wellness. I do feel like we took a major step forward during the pandemic and coming off of George Floyd. I mean, there were just a lot of very strong conversations and understandings being felt and made.

But I also do think that we need to still continue to move forward on this and think about the role of schools maybe in all of this um and making sure that there are environments where kids who are struggling get the support at home, but maybe also at these educational institutions. I agree with that. I think schools are really important resource for our our young people's total health. So teachers can also help to create space to have

sort of safe, age appropriate conversations about current events. And also schools are spaces where young people who have emerging mental health needs can hopefully be identified and can be um provided with the supports that they need, and that might come from a school mental health UH specialist, or it might come from referrals for outside sources. But I think schools are often really important gateways to for connecting

children with services that they need. I'm just trying to understand the differences between what's happening now and what's happened, you know, since Columbine, and what happened before that, And I'm trying to figure out as we look for answers in a really difficult time. I think for a lot of people, what is it about America that makes us unique when it comes to these types of mass shootings?

And in the developed countries I should say, Okay, yeah, So I think a common misperception right now is that mental health issues cause mass shootings, and I think, um, what's true is that guns cause mass shootings. And so you know, gun policy is going to be critical for resolving that this problem in our country. Mental health care is incredibly important and does need more attention, but that's not the answer to reducing mass shootings. So what would

be the answer to reducing mass shootings? So I think gun control policies are really critical. I mean, one of the things that differentiates our country from others is um the policies that we have around gun ownership, access to guns, and so forth, And so I think that's a really important area. And in fact, there are experts at the Bloomberg School who study those policies specifically and can really

speak well to what's needed in this area. How do you know when it's a crisis moment um, Dr Mendelssohn, and it's not a case of just having a conversation sin and that there's something more that needs to be done. Yeah, So, I mean, I think that one thing for parents to

watch for is always shifts in children's behavior. So if you're noticing something really different, your child is suddenly withdrawing from things they used to enjoy or having very different behavior, seeming distressed in a different kind of way, that's something to pay attention to. And I think having open communication with children is always really important so that they do feel comfortable opening up when you ask them about what's

going on. And that's another thing too, is to ask don't assume that children will um broach the topic, but if you make it a safe space to be able to say when something is bothering them and that's sort of ongoing in your family. Culture makes it easier when

crises do arise. Dr Medlson. I'm wondering, you know, as as a parent, and people who listen to the show regularly know that I have a three year old, and you know, I sometimes talk with my wife if you know, how do we know if he's acting like a normal three year old versus uh, something that we should have an eye on? Us relatively new parents? What is the way to know that stuff without actually going to a doctor and speaking to somebody who is an expert in

child behavior. Yeah, that's a great question. I do think there's lots of great online resources through the American Academy of Pediatrics and other sort of respected UM sources of information on child development. UM. There are also great books out there. But again, when when in real doubt, UM, it is it is helpful to talk to a pediatrician

directly or a child mental health specialist? Um, it's you know, Unfortunately, we are living in a society where I think most would say more of this is going to come and is going to be more stress on our younger population. UM. Is it ever too young to start having these conversations. Again, I think that as long as conversations are developmentally appropriate, it so for instance, for younger kids, often fewer details

are better, keeping things more concrete and simple. UM. I think if conversations are developed developmentally appropriate UM and do not overwhelm children unnecessarily with information that makes them feel sort of paralyzed and afraid, then I think it's really healthy and in fact, UM crises or events that happen in the world can be opportunities to talk to children about how we can have positive impact on the world and how we can identify what our values are and

work to change problems that come up in the world. And that can be a way of helping empower young people to think about how they can take action. Dr Mendelson, before you, before we leave and wrap up, we did want to get to that there was an act that passed in Baltimore, and I think it's very relevant to this conversation. Can you just fill us in on that.

Absolutely so, Baltimore past the Elijah Coming Healing City Act to really address the widespread historical trauma and collective trauma in Baltimore due to the effects of structural racism and UM sort of historic wrongs that have been done, and this initiative, this is the only citywide legislation path to really create a trauma informed, trauma responsive city. That's a really exciting opportunity UM. And there's a task force to help oversee how this UM legislation really gets enacted. But

more importantly, there's real engagement with community UM. The idea is to have a community movement UM that can really promote healing in Baltimore. Hopefully this will be a model for other cities. I think it's important to note that while you know this, the school shootings have been devastating, that many communities, such as those in Baltimore, have experienced violence in an ongoing way. Dr mar Medalson directed the Center for Adolescent Health at the Johns Hopkins at Bloomberg

School of Public Health. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol man Her and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. We want to get to the cover story and the Bloomberg Big Take, and might we add the cover image alone is a must see. The stories about Larry Ellison, the Oracle billionaire. You know him well, who's making his Hawaiian island more hospitable to the super rich, but pushing out families that have been there for generations.

Sophia Alexander had the enviable task of traveling to Lanai and spending some serious time in Hawaii. She's the author of this cover story for Bloomberg Business which he's Wealth Team reporter for Bloomberg News. She's with us in the Bloomberg Interactor Broker Studio. Joe Weber is the editor of Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us in the Interactive Broker Studio as well. Joel, I want to start with the

Lord of Lenai, the cover of Bloomberg Business Week. You do each week, tell us how the sausage is made when it comes to the cover, But this one is particularly poignant. Uh So. It's a painting of Larry Ellison um in a very you know, provocative kind of pose of of um him sort of as like almost as a conquisador um. And there's a very traditional Hawaiian vibe to the artwork, which is also reflected in the artwork

that we've commissioned for the story on the inside. UM. But you know, the Yeah, let's just say Larrialison did not want to participate in the story. UM, so hence why you have to recruit an artist to like make a painting. Um. This one is a really interesting story though, And honestly I knew nothing about this, although I have been to Hawaii to the islands that look at Lanai

and you're like, WHOA, what's that island? And Lanai is this amazing story in and of itself because it's basically always been as long as it's been, um, you know, sort of developed and civilized in the you know, quote unquote modern terms. Um, it has really the ownership of that highland has been in very few hands. It was forever a dull plantation. Another dull billionaire basically bought it um and then just a decade ago fell into Larrialison's hands.

And for all the conversations that happened about Hawaii, and I think Mark Zuckerberg has gotten a ton of attention for what he's sort of cobbled together. Nobody owns an island. Larry Olson bought the whole thing. This island is hit and he can basically do with it whatever he wants. But that means the three thousand locals who live there and they rent from him and basically owned from him. Have found themselves in a really difficult position. So Sophie,

you went there, you talked to them. Are what are they experiencing? Yes, So it's interesting because they're used to, uh, their island being owned by a billionaire. There was a billionaire before Larry Allison that owned it, David Murdoch. Um. As you mentioned, he was the Dole chairman at the time he took it over, I believe, um. But he was what they now call a poor billionaire. He was worth like a couple of billion dollars compared to Ellison's

roughly billion dollars on any given day. It's just this amount of wealth is so unfathomable to pretty much anyone, and so they're seeing firsthand what he can actually do with it. Um. So Ellison, you know, he owns pretty much everything, He controls pretty mu everything, and because of his massive fortune, he can really like shape this island into what he wants. The other billionaire, you know, was letting the hotels run down, the community pool was writing down.

He just couldn't afford to keep it up. But it's not a problem for Allison. So what is Allison doing. Is he investing, is he propping everything up? And is he embracing the locals. So it depends who who you ask. There are some people who are really happy with what he's done. You know, one person I talked to who

is in the story, Gail Allen. She says, you know, he bought the grocery story and he turned into a mini Whole Foods, which you know, she's very happy about, and a lot of people would be very happy about. But you know, the Whole Foods is like the marker of gentrification. After all, Um and a lot of other people on the island are more anxious because the problem is, no one really knows what Larry's plans are. And he

is very you know, like behind the scenes. The old billionaire who owned it, David Murdock, he was very involved in the community. He talked to people in the community. But Larry does not engage with the community at all. He's never been into a community meeting. He basically let his company do the talking for him, and even the people who work there. When the people I talked to

said she has no idea what his plans are. So you get that perspective, but you also get a perspective of people who are affiliated with with him, right and who who have worked for him. And so there's this this other side of the conversation, which is he can kind of do anything he wants, right, and so what what what has he done on that side? Because he has spent some money there. Yes, he's spent a bunch

of money. I mean one of the first things he did, let's just start there, is build a noboo on the island. He said at one point that when he arrived the food with Yeah, exactly, Um, well there's actually the one noboo and then there's sense a by no boo, So there's actually that's for the mass exactly. You know, it's like two no boos on one small island. Um. You know,

he renovated the four seasons hotels. He spent tens of millions of dollars on that, and so now rooms at the ocean side one on thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars a night for some of the sweets. Still is that where she stayed? When she staying? You know, he hasn't seen the expense concluded answer that I'm just gonna say, I haven't seen it. So I don't. I don't know, keep going and so, and there's a bunch

of other stuff that he's doing. He is building a new housing project because housing is huge issue on the island. There's a bunch of stuff he wants to do, but there's nowhere for these construction workers to live. Um. And then more recently, most recently, he's also building a Monches Story School. And the big question is whose kids are

those for? Well, I thought was really poignant part of the story when you included the question that one of your one of the people you featured in the story asked about the research that they did with the mon A Story School. Is their communication with the established school to make sure that the curriculum actually melds with when these kids graduate and go there. How does that speak to the way that what's happening on the island isn't

perhaps necessary necessary early organic. Yeah, I mean communication or lack thereof is the biggest concern among residents, even those who are more in favor of him. They just don't really know what's happening at anyone time. Like so the rumor mill or coconut wireless as it's called on the island. Yeah, is you know, people depend on it for their news. He owns the community newspaper now too. So, um, we didn't talk about some other exclusive reporting relating to Tom Cruise.

What happened? What happened when Tom came to visit? Yeah, so this was It's a funny story because if you just bring up with anyone on the island, if you're like, do you remember when Tom Cruise visited, They're like, oh, yeah, and he flipped his car and you know, a total to crash it. Um his car, not his car, Larry's car. Um. So back in around when Tom Cruise visited the island, he was a guest of David Ellison, who uh Tom works with, Uh it's Larry Son on their movies and

itating Top Gun, Maverick, the the new blockbuster. I heard of it. Um when he came to visit. He was using one of Larry's cars and he was on one of the dirt roads in Lenai and he flipped it, totaled the car, you know, and that kind of thing just is never reported anywhere because this is Larry's island. You know. They basically called his company were like come clean it up. Then they did. They exactly they smashed the car, recycled it, and then that's that and no

one ever hears of it again. As I said at the top, so obsessed with this story. Check it out. It's a great read online interactive stuff going on, Sophie. Thank you so much, Sophie, Alexander Wealth Team reporter and of course Jill Weber, the editor of Business Week. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. A story that's among our most ready the most read in the last eight hours. Now is it right now? Yeah? I just checked. I

know it's been like moving up there. It's about how one day ahead of the CPI printing unit, it states inflation is topping ten on key items that Americans just cannot avoid. I mean, I don't know about you, food and grant gas. If you're listening right now, you know exactly what we are talking about. Olivia Rockman is on the story. She's US Economy reporter for Bloomberg News. She's with this right now in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studios. So I read this story and I thought, and I've

said this throughout the program tod Olivia. This story has Carol's name written all over it because she thinks it's like a waste of time to strip out food and energy when it comes to inflation, because who's not using energy and who's not eating food. For the longest time, economists were stripping this out because energy for a month at a time would be volatile, or food would randomly spike and then come back down because of hurricane or

like just one off things that would happen. But we're in this environment now where everything is spiking at the same time, and so to just say, oh, those are volatile and we're not going to look at them, is it isn't working in this very pandemic inflationary environment. The other thing is we're talking before we got go. I mean, oil isn't everything to transport Haiti in the moving around the world. Like, how do you get away from it? I said to you before we got going. Every time

I fill up, where do you go? I'd fill up my take and I'm like, oh, but you know what, this doesn't cost me anything because it's not a part of the core. I mean, I don't know, but that credit card statement comes at the end of the month and it's there, Um, is there a rethink or dig a little bit more into your story and what you wanted to get to in reporting this out. So a lot of this comes down to what the FED is

watching when they're setting policy. And for the longest time, the FED really did only look at the core because they didn't have to worry about these categories. They would fluctuate, come back down. At this point, the FED has no choice but to look at food, energy and electricity and say, how is this impacting Americans? And are we going to take action on these categories that maybe before we would

write off. And it does seem like, based on what we've heard from Powell, that they are looking at those categories more than they had ever in the past. We spoke to Insignerella Global macro strategist here at Bloomberg News a little earlier in the program. He gave us his predictions for tomorrow. He's not looking at year over year, he's looking at month to month, and he says, if we see a print that's too hot, the market is going to go crazy month to month because it's expecting

seven tons of a percent. If it see something hotter than that, then that's going to be bad news. Talk to me about expectations. We have the Bloomberg economists, you know, analysis and what we think it's going to be. What is your reporting tell you? The economists that I've talked to you this week have all said risks are to the upside on the print, both for month over month and year over year. That's on the headline figure, so that that's the ones that include food, energy, and electricity.

The core may actually cool because we may see apparel, furniture, kind of discretionary inventors. Yeah, but the restart to the upside because of what gases are doing. We have gas almost at five dollars a gallon nationwide. You've got food spiking because of Ukraine everything. So if anything, we might see something hotter according to economists, Um, and the cool

offt doesn't look great. And I guess you know we've talked about this, Tim and I certainly have, and with our TV colleagues and our simulcast, just the broader impact that this is having on Americans, right we we've seen kind of these sobering stories of people making choices. I was actually checking out. I mean, we talked about this earlier and I was buying a few things at the grocery store in there, buying some paper towels, and it was so expensive. I'm like, I don't really need these

right now, that's ridiculous. You know. You do start to think, okay, I'll put this back, and you make some choices, and for some the choices are really hard, especially low income Americans. Yeah, and we're almost going back to the K shaped recovery that we had talked about so often in we talked about with Peter Atwater William and Mary a Lot who

coined that phrase. Yeah, so you've got low income consumers really feeling the pinch of this inflation because the majority of the spending is on these necessities versus hire income Americans who also spend on discretionary categories. So real spending

is actually pretty strong. Still, well, that fall potentially, but we do see the dichotomy the reason we do care about this too, and court we could go on for this core versus non core, but I mean, at some point, like we just said, you do make some choices, and we're so concerned. Right now, we start from the ECB in Christine Leguard, right, we're worried about Okay, people are having to make choices where do they cut back and

how does that lead to an economic slowdown? And that's just the question, right consumer spending in this current environment is I think what will be the straw to break the camel's back in terms of recession, And the past has been financial conditions, Probably not now right, because it's been so strong, right, and it's been going because of

all the stimulus. Some darring figures in Your Peace Olivia of households found it's somewhat are very difficult to pay for usual household expenses, according to the US Census Bureau survey conducted in late April and early made that compares to at the same time last year. How much worse

is it going to get? We know that energy, food and electricity are expected to continue to rise this summer, and that's at a time when people drive more in the summer, people need air conditioning in this summer, and so all predictions show that the summer could be probably

the worst time of the environment that we're in. There are some predictions that things could get better in the fall, and the good news is we do still have a strong labor market, and so that's what we need to be watching really closely to have an understanding of where people are going to be, because if the labor market also weekends, we really are going to have trouble for some Americans. And just understand folks that just because there's a core cp I, it's like, oh okay, that doesn't

impact me. I'm going to still go out and spend. It's just not real. And I think very very timely in terms of the conversation, the Fed though, pays attention to CPI or is it really pc So historically pc was their measure, but they have no choice but to look at all the measures given the taking the day off tomorrow. I don't know what schedule. I don't think

it's ignoring it. Media calling they want to know, and they're like, no, no, no, no, it's it's pc E. I'm just trying to, like, you know, um, Olivia, thank you, thank you. I appreciate it. This is right our most read story on the Bloomberg Olivia Rockman U s economy reporter at Bloomberg News about inflation topping ten percent in those key items that I gotta tell you we just need. I'm broadly oh, journal, yeah, but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no home honey, please, I'll do

the right gravels. I want to drive. It's a good question. This is the drive to the clothes up down on Bluebird Radio. I just got about ten and a half minutes left in today's trading session, getting ready to soon wrap up this Thursday trading day. Man, Tim, we are near our loads of the session. Let's get into it with ryand Trick, chief market strategist at LPL Financially, joins us on the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Ryan, good

to have you back with us. A really good day to have you with us as well, because you look at technicals where the technicals you're keeping an eye on. Is there anything to be optimistic about? Yeah, Tim and Carol, thanks for having me back. You know, the truth is this guy's we've had some over soul bounces, but we're not quite seeing historically which it tend to see at a major low, which is like, let's get a little geeky on you like updates, up volume days, you tend

to see clusters of those. We haven't quite seen those clusters yet, So we all make at the end of the world, we don't think We don't see a recession, we don't see major selling weakness from here. But is May nineteenth the lows that's the big question, of course, And just think of this. It's a mid term year. We talked a lot about that. Mid term years historically don't bottom find their ultimate bottom until about August fourteenth. On average. Only twice in history has the low for

the year taking place earlier than May nineteenth. Not saying that it couldn't have happened, but just be aware that maybe a little summer bounce, but maybe a third quarter low is is probably what we're what we're likely going to see this year. All right, When does a technician, technical and analyst like yourself just kind of say, oh, come on, this is an environment we really have never lived here them before. I can't even look at history

to figure out what's gonna up and next. Yeah, Carol, you're right, I mean inflation, hoart of your eyes and inflation, the FED rying to shut down, coming off the heels of a hundred year pandemic, all those things. Yes, but you know what we also started to see earlier year defensive things lead like utilities like healthcare, like staples, kind of hallmarks they're not necessarily a bear market, but just

more of a risk off scenario. So as long as we keep seeing that, it's just something to um, something be aware of. Now. Also, Carol, you know this was the fourth worst start to year. So what does it mean when? What does it mean when defensive leads? Yeah, we simply that. Yeah, when you see the more defensive things like your staples and utilities leading, that's just they the market's way of saying, listen, something could be a little off. Maybe let's let's be slightly more defensive here.

Um as you know, like we saw last year, I when when the tech leads and communications lead, that's more of a healthier market really starting last November. But was it healthy last year or was it a case of so much liquidity in the system chasing the momentum players. Well, well it could could be, you're right, could be a little bit of both. I guess the profits still count from that point of view. But but you're right it

it was healthy. But starting late last year, we started to see something something as simple as it advanced the kline line to is how many stocks going up versus down? That peaked late last year and started a weekend as well. So these are some cracks that were there. But I just want a point one one positive thing. I don want to sound too negative if you're one positive thing. This is the fourth worst start to year ever for the SMP, five hundreds of the one hundredth day, all right,

that just happened recently. The rest of the year, when you look at the five worst start ever, the rest of the year is up about nineteen percent on average for the SMP. So we've been here before. We had rough stars before. So then again, okay, wait, okay, fourth worst start to year. The technical analyst Carol, I just

don't type in right fast enough. Fourth worst start to a year for the SMP as of the hundredth day, and then what usually happens to talk to you, Yeah, well, the rest of the year has been higher five of the last five times with the worst five starts ever they were thirty two, thirty, ninety sixty two, and Evan, those were the five war starts ever as a day, and the rest of the year was higher every time

of nineteen percent on average. So we've seen some bad starts, so we were you know, this has been a rough year, no doubt. With bonds not participating in all the problems we've had. But still we don't see a recession near Carol. And historically we don't have a recession. You attend the bottom around nineteen or twenty percent, right, nineteen seventy six, two thousand, eleven, ninety eight, and twenty eighteen, all years without a recession with a nineteen percent correction. We just

corrected nineteen percent on the SMP. So history don't repeat. But at rhyme, said Mark Twain, we think we're in the range where this is still opportunity for investors. When all is said and done with this year, maybe we don't go back to positive, but there we could be a good deal higher than when we are in our opinions right here with the equities, all right, give us some other things to be optimistic about. Or actually, you know what, you just gave us some optimism. Talk about

recessionary risks here. I know you said we don't see a recession. Why do you not see a recession? Yeah, well we see a slowdown here, Tim, I mean, like a lot of people. All right, we came into this year saying four percent GDP growth. We're down to two and a half percent. The truth is, we still need the consumer is pretty strong, and I know what Target has said and Walmart has said, but it's still in consumer confidence. I mean, the Michigan consumer confidence in near

eleven year lows. But we're still seeing some pretty solid um solid spending. I mean, I travel a good deal, you know, I know you guys do I factual By the way, guys, I'll be in New York this Monday for the first time since the pandemic, so right away, you know things are starting to open up. And the truth is, you know, everyone bought stuff right, goods likely Goods inflation likely is already peaked, but it's the services inflation that might peak over the next month or so.

And lots of the services are still still strong in our opinion. And just one more positive thing, I think look at backlogs, right, some of the recent data we've seen in backlogs with supply chains, we've seen some big improvements. It's not perfect by any means, but again, that big

CPI number, every's gonna talk about it. We're optimistic that we're seeing some improving backlogs in time to delivery and some of those things that are saying, hey, it's light aga into the tunnel, and inflation likely is gonna peak quite soon, and that could be the positive driver for confidence um the second half of this year, depending on it. Is a glass half full of the glass half empty when it comes to financial markets in the equity trade. Well,

by nature, I'm a glass half full type. I knew that about you, Ryan. I was gonna say there's no way he's going to go with classes. When you look at anything is possible. But when you look at the charts, you still feel that way. Yeah, sure, yeah, no, we do. I mean, listen, we knew this was a midtermor community year. Your Averridge midtermure pulls back seventeen percent after a hundred and fifteen percent rally. It's only a five percent correction all last year. It made sense to us it wouldn't

be as easy. We didn't see quite this much weakness. I'll be honest this soon in the year. But the truth again is is negative sentiment is all over the place. Everybody's worried, and that makes sense because of what's happened. But let's not forget. You know, when everyone's on one side of the boat, the opportunities on the other. So we do think that any good news at all. Maybe some of the economy. Maybe it's on the Fed. We

think it'll be the fan. We don't think the fan's gonna hike ten eleven times, maybe more like seven or eight this year. Inflation comes back down. That could be the deposit house. One more thing, one more thing. Earnings expectations this year, Earning supposed to go this year they last year. All right, that's that's pretty good. I mean that doesn't sound recession or to us. We're still creating

three fourtwood jobs a month. Things are perfect. But again, we think we can aford a recession, more of a slowdown, not a recession than that could be an opportunity for investors here. Well. To be fair, our Tom Orlick ahead of our Bloomberg economic chief economist who's got research outs, has slowed down. Yes, recession. No, So I feel like it mirrors to some extent what you just had to say, Hey, Ryan,

thank you so much. Safe travels to New York. Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, on the floor on the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. So optimism, Yeah, of course you can tell he's optimistic. Guy. No, I did not. I'm gonna let you say it. I've got it, so you're gonna have to help correct a lot of technicals there.

Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube. Sara to Bloomberg, glob or News