Inflation Jeopardizes the Fed’s Goal for Inclusive Employment

Bloomberg Business Weekend iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube. Searched Bloomberg clovel News. It was the shot scene around the world. One year ago today, Sandra Lindsay, the director of patient care at Northwill Health Long Island Jewish Medical Center, became the first person in the US to get the

COVID nineteen vaccine. We all watched or saw the video right after it happened, and Tim that press conference of the event said to be viewed by some six billion people at that time or shortly thereafter. Yeah, I mean it was monumental. I remember, right, we were all working up to the vaccine and then to finally see it being put in healthcare workers arm was. It was a

big deal. It was a big deal, and it's sort of I think a lot of people would be fair to say that this isn't really where we thought we'd see ourselves in a year. Apple asking people to put masks back on hospitalizations in New York? Uh are you know are up significantly after the holidays? And Governor Cathy Hicle saying she's frustrated by this need for new restrictions. All right, so let's see what Michael Dowling President and see you at Northwell Health, which is the largest healthcare

provider and private employer in New York State. He's also written several books. He joins us on the phone from Long Island, New York. Michael, thank you so much. You have been so gracious always throughout the pandemic and find you so much appreciate it anytime. Thank you so much. I appreciate well we do too. How are things going? What are you seeing front and center when it comes

to where we are in the pandemic? Well, compon points I want to make is one this is as you mentioned, this is a very special day and it's also important to a member the success that has a called sense. Then we're in a most better position today than we were a year ago. But everybody has to understand that

this as a marathon. Uh, it's not a sprint. We still have a lot of work to do before we completely exit this pandemic crisis, and people have to be have to be a little bit patient and have to put up with some inconvenience and some disruption, and we have if we are willing to win the war against the COVID, then we have to do what is right to do. So today, um, we have three COVID patients in our hospitals. That's about double what it was prior

to Thanksgiving. And we do anticipate now that we're going into the Christmas week that we will see another up in hospitalizations post Christmas. We don't know exactly what the numbers would be like, but we're anticipating that we will see an increase. So the positivity rates are going up, but they are the hospitalizations, at least in the city in down State. While they are increasing, we do not have in any in any situation a disasters circumstances. We're

easily able to handle it. The volume is not too much we're handling it is different than what's happening upstate and in other places around the country. Well, Michael tell us, if you can um how many of those patients you are in the hospital right now are are people who are vaccinated, less than twenty are vaccinated. All that means over of the people in the hospital are people that are unvaccinated. So in many ways, we have an unvaccinated crisis,

a crisis of unvaccinated people. And that's the issue. That's that's what that's disturbing because we we we know the vaccine works, we know it can dramatically reduce the illness and dramatically prevent hospitalizations. And the fact that people are still out there making all sorts of arguments that they shouldn't get vaccinated, in my view, makes appolutely no sense.

Um so um that the if there are people the people who are in the hospital that have been vaccinated and and have covie it and and I was sick, which are few and not few in number, but these are people that most in most cases have other major medical issues that they're suffering from the vaccine. If you get the vaccine, it will it will limit the illness, and it will in all likehood dramatically limited any hospitalization. So it definitely has proven to be to be successful.

Younger older. Is there something interesting in terms of the people are well, they're older, um, and especially the paper holding the I c O went quite sick um, but they are the sickest ones are the ones that are unvaccinated. Let's also talk a little bit about gun safety, because something that you're doing, Michael, and that you've been doing at Northwell Health for the last three years, has been the Gun Violence Prevention Forum. UM investor Susan rice Is

is going to be headlining it. I'm wondering about how that fits into our idea of public safety, especially during the pandemic. Well I you know, in many ways you could argue we have two pandemics. We have the COVID pandemic and we have a pandemic of gun violence. I mean, we've had over six hundred mass shootings this year, a long during COVID going ownership increase, the sale of guns increased, etcetera, etcetera.

And we just obviously on Michigan last week with that, with that fifteen year old, we have a real crisis here. So we've been working on this for a couple of years and my my my position is that we have to look at gun violence as a public health issue because we see the results of it in our emergency rooms and outside wards in you know, the dislocation of families and the disruption of families, etcetera. We see the medical and psychological issues as a result of gon violence.

So it's a public health issue. And I believe large health care organizations have the broadened concept of health. It's a lot more than just a provision of provision of medical care. So we have to be we have to be out there as catalysts and advocates to look much more broadly, and gun violence is one of those issues. So tomorrow do we We do have our fun national meeting and Susan Rice is one of the headline ers.

We do have a big meeting in Washington on those that night where we have a demo with a lot of to keep people from around the country, and we've developed a learning collaborative. I've been trying very hard to get a lot of the health systems around the country to stand up and basically say this is in our lane, this is what we should be working on. This is a public health issue and we've got to deal with it well well said another pandemic and an important public

health issue as well. Michael, thank you so much. Happy holidays and and be well and stay safe. Michael Darling his presidency. You at north Well Health, as we said, home to the first vaccine that we got in the United States one year ago. Today, you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. We know you know the FED has a dual mandate keeping Asian in check and also

reach maximum employment. The thing is that's not so easy to do, especially if Fed cher J. Pale sticks to his plan of max employment for all. Tim. There's also this element of modifiers, broad based and inclusive. Matthew Bosler writes all about it. He's Federal Reserve reporter at Bloomberg News. His story is featured in the upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. You can read it now on the Bloomberg Terminal and at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week.

Joel Weber is editor at Bloomberg Business Week. He's with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. This was a perfect story for today as we think about what's going on with the Fed, Joel. Uh. But it also includes so much, so so many parts of the questions that we've been asking, which are really what what is full employment today? And how does the FED define that? Big time? And and we're gonna you know this being kind of Fed Fed week here at Bloomberg, Well we will we

will find out more soon enough. Uh. Not a job that I would want, um, and Placio j peal and navigates it. Um. So So, Matt, what's on your list? What are the things that they were all going to

be watching for? Yeah, so, you know, speaking broadly about the meeting tomorrow, Joel, Um, the two big things that we're expecting are for the Fed to um accelerate the wine down of its bond buying program and you know, look to conclude that by the end of the first quarter of next year, and then also signal more interest rate increases in the forecast for next year then they had previously been signaling. And of course those two things

are linked. If they wind down the bond buying program earlier, and that clears the deck for earlier interest rate increases, and of course this is all coming at a time when UM inflation has accelerated over the last few months to UM the highest levels in nearly forty years, and the FED is facing a lot of political pressure from both sides of the aisle to do something about it.

You mentioned the inflation, We're there and I'm wondering how that runs into inclusive employment UM and and and the dual mandate for that matter, Like, how has that changed

the conversation from from just a two months ago. Well, yeah, it's really interesting because if you go back to last year, UM, we were kind of in the middle of a national reckoning on race, right with both the pandemic and of course the killing of George Floyd that led to protests across the country against police brutality, and a lot of institutions came out UM and made pledges, uh, you know,

to do their part to try to fix this. And for the Fed's part, UM, its pledge was to consider racial disparities in the labor market when it's trying to make its assessments of how close the economy is the maximum employment and therefore you know, what to do with interest rates and so UM. That was clearly top of mind a year ago. And like you said, the FED

has two mandates. Now, obviously inflation is kind of taking center stage politically, and um, the FED you know, isn't necessarily you know, getting that sort of prodding from Democrats on the employment issue. Um that it was a year ago. And so this is become less of a partisan debate. You know, should the FED prioritize employment broad based or

should it prioritize inflation. Um, you've kind of got both sides wanting it to deal with inflation first and foremost, just the way the political wins are shifting behind it. So is there a chance not that the FED won't be able to achieve its goal of broad based and inclusive? And and what do we know about the definition of broad based and inclusive because you run through some numbers here that show that there's a long way to go when it comes to certain parts of the American population

getting back to work. Right that So this is the most interesting part, right because you know, some you know, a lay person might say, well, broad based and inclusive employment, maybe that means the black and the white unemployment rates are equal and there isn't this big gap between them. Like exists now. Right, Black unemployment is six point seven white unemployment is three point seven percent. That doesn't obviously meet uh, you know, a lay person's definition of broad

based and inclusive. But the FED has been very careful not to put numbers on this, not to define what they mean. And so when it comes to this question of, you know, will they be able to meet their goal of broad based and inclusive employment, what we're kind of seeing is they've got plenty of latitude um that they've given themselves to sort of redefine that goal. And that's kind of what people are increasingly expecting them to do. Uh, you know, if not tomorrow, then in the coming months

as inflation increasingly becomes a bigger priority. It's one of those things you do wonder, right, you figure out, you do your modeling because you're asking the question, you're asking your story, Matt. How much more could the black white unemployment gap now if the economy were allowed to run hot for longer? Right, We just don't know, and it would have to be an experiment in real time. And maybe the gap does get reduced and things do improve

for black unemployment. Maybe it doesn't. Yeah, And this is another great aspect of this whole conversation because the FED has essentially thrust itself into this very long running political debate in America over what are the true causes of this? Right on one side, um, you know, going back decades and decades, it's always been about education. We need to um, you know, expand educational opportunities and job training for these underserved communities and you know, position them to uh succeed

uh better in the workforce. The other side has often said, well, no, it's really not about um, you know, training for these jobs. It's about are these jobs available in the first place.

And so that kind of gets to this question of, you know, is the answer not just the government needs to spend more money via fiscal policy, the Federal Reserve needs to run the economy hot or via monetary policy, and these things are going to start to sort themselves out on their own in the private sector or labor markets.

And we got a little bit of a taste of that, you know, before the pandemic UM in the years leading up to it, UM, with the unemployment rate getting solo, you did see employers starting to um increasingly higher into these um you know, underserved communities tap into these labor pools, and you started to see some movement there, but of course it was truncated by the pandemic. And so in some sense, you know what, a lot of people wanted to kind of get back to that place where we can,

um at least get back to running that experiment. Um. But in the meantime, uh, you know, we've got some other issues to deal with that are still being driven by the pandemic, perhaps, like inflation. Genuine question, how many balls can JP juggle at one moment time? That's a great question, you know, hopefully at least two because that's uh,

I think it's given like four more and see what happened. Hey, I just wanted to end Matt very briefly with talking about the idea of looking at some other metrics here because you spoke to David Wilcox here at Bloomberg Economics. He has a US economic research for Bloomberg Economics. What about the other data that we get just in about thirty seconds. Sure, so you know a lot of people are playing to job opening, fast wage growth, um. And you know survey measures that suggests the labor market is

very tight. This is really interesting rerun of the conversation we had in the wake of the Great Recession in the years like two thousand nine. So it's kind of following a similar pattern. Even those circumstances are very different. Who wants to change places with j Pal's your hand, but he's raising their in mattout Bosler, Thank you so much. Matt Bosler is Federal Reserve reporter at Bloomberg News, joining us on the phone from New York City. Check out

his story. It's going to feature in the upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. You can read it now on the Bloomberg terminal, also at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week. It's it's it's tricky. It's tricky, especially when there's so many questions out there in the economy. By the way, Matt's going to be I assume watching closely tomorrow and perhaps asking a question or two. Yeah, he's on a plane headed to uh, Mexico. I think did

everybody go to Mexico right now? Joe Weber, of course, the editor of Bloomberg Business Week, he's in our studio. Al right, stick around, you're listening to Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Business Way with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So we're just under twenty three hours away from the last decision here, it's

like sixty minutes. That's that's what we're doing. Um, probably not an easy one for the US Central Bank this time around, considering the long list of uncertainties and questions and really pressures that face FED chair J. Powell and company. So we thought we would get a strategy play on the FED with the perfect, perfect go to voice for this. It's Dr Stephen Skanky. He's chief Economic advisor at keel Point, also former U S Treasury and White House National Security

Council staff member. He is with us after what a two year break since we've seen him in the Bloomberg studios. It is really great to have you with us, Dr Skanky, How are you. I'm great, Thanks, and it's wonderful to be back here. It's exciting to be back in your studio. Okay, So tell us right now, what the what the Federal Reserve officials are thinking. What is what's going through the

mind of J. Powell. They're trying to figure out how they're going to lay this out in an effective way that doesn't spook the market, restores confidence and shows that they're not behind the curve. Uh. Is that possible? I think it is. I mean, it's it's a big challenge that. The good news is that j. Powell had a very bad experience in UH December of when he badly miscommunicated to the market, and he understands the response and uh, and that was about taper UH and reducing liquidity in

the economy. And so he gets that and how sensitive the market is to that. And so that's what we're talking about for tomorrow, speeding up the rate of taper UH, probably ending it by by the end of March. So they have plenty of room than to do whatever they want to do about interest rates. All right, so help me out here, price stability, full employment or maximum employment. Uh. No market tantrums. That's not part of their mandage exactly.

But they do keep a close watch on the markets. Oh, absolutely, because it's spills over into the economy. It affects consumer confidence, business confidence. And we actually got some good news this morning with the small business optimism and tell me, yeah, talk to us about this, because small business right back gone of our economy what what did you glean from

that report? Well, I want to be honest, I was surprised because these small businesses are are on the receiving end of higher costs for services, higher costs for intermediate goods in their production. You know, you saw the producer price index out this morning up nine point six percent for final demand. Big impact on small business, and yet they came out with a moderate increase in their optimism.

That's very encouraging. UH. They're also on the hiring end, and so they're very much affected negatively by all the unfilled jobs as they're trying to expand and build their businesses. And and we know that for every job that's available, there's less than one person available to fill that job. So does the information that we're getting and I think that Small Business Optimism report was a big one too.

I agree with you. Um, does it give the FED you talked about the importance of their messaging and how they put it out there, Steve, does it give them more room to be a little bit more hawkish or do they just stay the course at this point? From what we last heard from j Pow when he's really up before UH congressional lawmakers, they are going to be

more hawkish. They want to come across as more hawkish, but they don't want to sound panicked and uh and so the small Business Optimism index that helps consumer confidence from the Michigan survey earlier this week is up a little bit. That also takes away some of the um anxiety and fear in what they're doing, so it it gives them some breathing space. Also, energy prices are down some,

food prices are down some. It makes it easier for them to be hawkish without look like with looking like their way behind the curve and scrammedy catch up what do you think is baked in and starts expectations go? You did say that you expect to see tapering probably ending by by the end of March. Um what spooks the market though tomorrow? What well? What spoots the market

if they get something that doesn't look like that? Number one, if the if the Fed doesn't change the rate of taper from UH fifteen billion a month to say thirty which we get them finished up by the end of March, then they look like they're out of touch. If they try to do something too much, or if they actually talk about their target for raising interest rates in two

that would spook the market all of a sudden. They said, Okay, hey, we were thinking maybe in June or something right exactly whatever, because that that that sounds hum scrambling, sounds desperate. Uh. And if they can just be out there and say, hey, you know, look, we've you know, Powill set the stage with his November thirty testimony, if he can just allow up with that, and and remember we talked about the minutes a couple of weeks ago. They are ready to

increase the rate of taper. So if they just go along with that, and it sounds business as usual, we are on course. We understand where it is. We're comfortable with that. Market will love it. Um. It doesn't doesn't mean it won't sell off some but but but but

it's not going to be a panic. This is the first this will be the first meeting in the first time we hear j pol questioned by journalists who cover him since he essentially banned the word transitory or said that, you know, that's not a term we should use anymore. Is there anything about what he says about inflation that could that could spook people? The idea that it has become something that is more persistent, or is that or do we know that with all the data that we've

been getting. I think he put that out on the table on November thirty. Uh. Now since then we've had the November c p I UH six point eight and the November pp A Producer Price Index at nine points, so that those higher numbers are out there. But but he's already been clear. Well, I like, you know, David Weston talking with Brian Moynahans EO Bank of America. Come on, folks, we know that there's inflation out there. How possible is it, Steve?

I mean, if you think about the last year and a half or since the pandemic started, right, the economy shut down, right, and then all of a sudden, you know, we came back as things started to reopen and we found our way, we saw that inflation takeoff. How likely is it possible that all of a sudden inflation has more people come back to work or supply chain start to get more normal, that inflation drops again. Could we

see a quick drop like that? Absolutely, and in fact we will see inflation drop, but just from the energy prices coming down that will have an impact on on December inflation numbers that come out in in January as people come back to work, depending on what China does, is it going to double down on the omicron variant or is it going to continue to increase production. That's a huge part of the supply chain. And if they really tighten up there, that'll be uh, that'll just exacerbate

the problem we have with prices here. So j Pal comes out and said, listen, folks, we know inflation is going to get back to a much more normalized rates. I mean, I think he's talked about that already, Like we get that. Will the markets respect that if he says this is why we have to continue to go slowly because we're not necessarily looking at normalized rates yet.

I think that they will. And what what helps so much is that we still I mean, we're going to see GDP growth in the fourth quarter somewhere in the six and a half to eight and a half percent range. I know that the New York Fed is still projecting fourth quarter GDP growth of annualized rate of eight point four percent, and we probably have six to six and a half percent baked in for one. So you've got that out there and that of course drives top line

revenue drops to the bottom. Law Mine company has been able to pass along prices well enough that there's not really an earning squeeze going on, or not much of a material one. So we're going to turn in the record fourth cord quarter earnings reports again in January. That that will just continue to boil the market. So why do I feel like I'm living a dream? Are like a weird Why does it feel so bizarro world? Well,

because it could make a surprise negative turn. Uh, that that is the real It's too early to use the R word. I think it's too early to use the R word. But but but if we had a really negative development on the COVID front, that certainly could be the case. If if other countries shut down production again, Um, it almost doesn't matter what we're trying to do in the United States because of the supply chain and the impact on prices and the impact on production and employment here,

we could certainly move in that direction. That that's the word. Yeah, No, you're not going anywhere. Put your seatbelt on. Um. I'm wondering, doctor Skanky about the how the how the labor market sorts itself. Out because we're Carol described it as this bizarre world, right, It's this idea that you know, there are not enough people for the jobs that we have available. Um our companies are somewhat raising raising wages to try

to attract and retain people. But but where does the FED come in and actually trying to resolve this and how can they resolve this? Well, the FT has a conundrum because they really wanted to see employment to unemployment far below where it is right now. They wanted to see it back down at three and a half percent, which is how you get the broad distribution of jobs

to the minority and disaffected labor groups. This is the broad and inclusive part of the mandate that is exactly right, and that's very hard and and it sort of begs the question of their credibility. If you're having eight GDP growth in the fourth quarter, six percent to six and a half for all of the year, and then you've got inflation out here at you know, pick pick your number, whether it's personal consumption core or cp I headline. Uh, it's in the it's in the range of six plus percent.

Uh And uh so they can't lose credibility by ignoring that reality with robust economic growth and a phenomenon within the labor force of just people not coming back. And yet we every day here at Bloomberg, and I really commend our team here because are very smart about reminding us of the gaps that are out there. And if you're in you know, Tim and I laugh about you know, you're looking at your four O n K. Because it's

been a remarkable couple of years. Um, yet there are people who who are barely making it or not making it at all. So what is the FED? It's the Fed's responsibility to that, and just got about seconds or well, the FED certainly wants to address that, but but they've got this tough balancing act of how do they do that effectively when you've you've got inflation above expectations developing to be a problem and not wanting to look like

you're behind the curve. So they're they're more likely to air on putting on the brakes a little too much, a little too soon, than they are to wait and let it get out of control. And that will be the really interesting question as to how they what they announced tomorrow and how J Powell fields the press questions try seconds. What would you ask J Powell at that

press conference? Pressure is hons? Where are you happy with the unemployment rate and the distribution of jobs and why do you think that we continue to have so many less jobs and less participation in the labor force in what is really a robust economic growth cycle. It's the ston It's like spot on. It's so great. Thank you so much. What a delight. Thank you really great to

have you in studio and just be here. Dr Steve Skanky, chief economic adviser of at keel Point, former US Treasuring and White House National Security Council staff member based in Washington, but he made his way to our interactive broker studio. Thank you so much. I'm bro Yeah, I bet you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no, this is not a hole. I'll do good revels. I want to drive. It's a good question. Good drive. This is the drive to the Globe on Bluebird Radio. All right, just about

ten minutes left in today's trading session. Uh, we are on FED decision eve. Yeah, that's last Fed decision of the year. To be a fly on the wall, right, Oh my gosh, can you I mean, we get the minutes, but yeah, a few weeks later and then we I guess we are Then we are there? Ye, alright, we are nerds. Having said that, you heard Charlie bricken down the trade here, we're definitely off our loads of the session. But we're seeing some selling, uh, particularly when it comes

to some of those tech names. Let's see what Jimmy Lee has to say. He is founder and chief executive officer of the Wealth Consulting Group. He joins us on the phone from Mexico. They are, by the way, an independent wealth management firm, a registered investment advisory firm that has about two point seven billion in assets under management. And he is on the phone from Mexico. How are you great? How are you doing? Okay? I feel like

I have more questions and answers in this environment. Uh. And having said that, despite even when we see some pullbacks when it comes to the equity trade, you know, let's not forget we're pretty much near record levels. Um, how do you what's your read on this financial market situation? Well, I think what you just said is very important. We're

at near record levels. So through last Friday, my record show, according to LPL Research, S and T was up over so if you combine that with the returns from last year. I mean, we've had we've had a nice, nice two years in a row. So getting a little bit of a pullback on potentially you know, a more hawky ish FED is something that I think is very expected and what I think will continue to happen, as we've seen all throughout this year, is that investors buying the dip.

And of course we really haven't had any large dip shet, we haven't had a real correction, and if we did, I think that investors would would go heavy, and especially in the sectors I think that have been beaten up recently with the idea that the economy is going to shut down again, you know what what kind of dip though, because like you said, we haven't really had you know, significant dip, especially when you put it in the context of the rise in in the SMP bounder that we

see this year and we're likely see this year, and that we saw last year, apart from you know, of course March when it was like you know, the dip of a generation, right right. I do believe there are some companies that have corrected um pretty you know, pretty pretty good off their highs, but overall, the market in general has been you know, staying very high because of the big, big tech names that are being hit today. They've rallied and they've done a you know, had some

really great returns. The big you know, megacap technology stocks that people were climbing into during the pandemic, they're rallying again as of late, carrying the big indexes like sp

backup to record levels. And so I think we've had this you know rotation of when we get negative news about covid uh selling off of the stocks that are in the travel and leisure industries, the cyclical stocks, you know, and then people rotate back into the big tech Obviously, today that's not happening, and um, you know, we're getting a little bit of sell off all over the place. But I would say that overall, you know, I don't think I don't think we're gonna get a dip of

er cent or more. I actually wish that we did, so we could put be more aggressive. A lot of people on the sidelines wish that. I really wished we did, but I don't think we'll get it because I think at the three five seven type range you'll get heavy buying because while while the said will potentially taper quicker um depending on the data about inflation, it's still accommodative. We're still they're still buying bonds. Interest rates are still you know, at all time lows. So I would say

that's a very good environment for equities. Okay, so you know we're we're seeing you know, the nastack down more than one point one percent right now? Do you think this? So you're you're essentially saying this isn't the start of any sort of potential sell off that that couldrake are some sort of opportunity to buy You think that the

diet buyers Russian already to prevent that. I do. I wish it was like I said, but I don't think it's going to happen, and so maybe we end up, you know, with a little bit of a setback and maybe a little bit of a standard clause rally. I don't know, UM obviously for traders, um any news regarding inflation or if you know, Powell changes his tone, which

I don't think he will. I think they've learned our lesson um the fet has in terms of not not doing it the way the old bernankey days where we would guess like which hand is briefcase was in to see what the sentiment was gonna be. Right when he was walking up Cavil Head, Yeah, walking into the Federal Research. It's not about the wrong chairman, but yeah it was. It was a green span and uh, we have a we used to have a chief economist who used to

work with the German greenspan. He passed away, but he would tell us a lot about green spans philosophy around that. But anyway, Um, the idea now that they're gonna signal weyne advans and not surprise the market, which I think this FET has done a really good job of. So I don't think we're gonna see anything surprising. Of course, we get some surprising data on inflation, because you know, maybe there's a sentence or two that says we may we make taper a little quicker, but I think investors

a price that in already honestly well. And I think what's safe to say, Jimmy, is that you know we've been it's been pretty remarkable in terms of corporate profits and how well they've stood up not only corporate profits but top line growth and margin growth or margin expansion. Does that continue, because that's going to be interesting, I think are the most important potentially for what investors do in terms of where they make their market bets. Does

that continue? Um in two? In your view? I hope so, and I think that we may get away. But doesn't I hope so too. And I'm sure there's a lot of bullish market watchers, but ken it are we. Do you think the fundamentals will be there for that to happen, Yes, they do. I think again a lot of that is to do with low inchest rates. We may get we may get an initial sake kike towards the second half

of next year, but still very logious rates. And every quarter, I can't remember the last quarter, I looked at the results of earnings, corporate earnings and said, wow, unbelievable. How well companies are performing, you know, in this environment. And I think that's going to continue to happen. I think that the companies that are short on labor you need, it's been very difficult to fill jobs. I think that's going to change to the better. I think this supply

situation is going to change for the better. So we're gonna see some of the prices of some of the areas that have gone up the most, home building, for example. I think that's gonna end up getting better towards the latter part of next year. UM. And so I think there are some things that are going to improve on the supply side that will help out with inflation data and the jobs, the jobs. I think, you know, I

think the job situation is going to be great. I think to continue to do well, and I really think it's gonna be important to be active. Um. Certain sectors of the commun will do much better next year than others. All Right, we gotta run. Hey, thank you so much. Jimmy Lee, founder and CEO at the Wealth Consulting Group, registered investment advisory firm with two point seven billion in assets under management. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

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