How Technology Has Reinvented Business

You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Well, we caught up with our next guest on the first trading day of this year. Tim was back in January and we talked about how things were going, how the pandemic has changed and shifted the world of technology and I t demand. So it's great to get his perspective again. Yeah. Rom Nagapon is

chief information Officer at bn Y Melon's Pershing. He joins us on the phone from New Jersey, Ron, how you doing doing good, doing good? Happy to be here with you during the week of insight to the in line Melon Pershing as Yeah, we are excited to have you back. UM, take us through how things have shifted over the last five months. Is as we have started this move many of us and many of your clients back to the office. Yeah,

meaning we do see everybody moving into the hybrid. From a technology point of view, I want to say we did have technology that helps us work on remote, but I want to say there's going to be a lot of innovation and changes that's going to happen in this space because whatever the tools we have has helped us, but it is not the best. So the remote work or working in a different places is going to exist, and a newer technology and a new way of how

we collaborate is going to happen. We see more and more digital capability is going to be rolled out, and the experience that our clients are going to face while they work, whatever they work, however they work, it's going to be very different and it's going to be all digital and more innovation is going to happen. And that's what I see in this UM. You know, I would say the hybrid work, uh environment that's going to go into So we're all excited to come back to work. Actually,

and it's slowly progressing. I would say, we take it day by day as things are getting back to our original and hope you'll expected to come back to the original as soon as possible. Well, I can't wait to be with you guys, uh within sight in person because it's such a great check from I always feel like for me and for a Bloomberg audience to get an idea of what's on the mind of investment advisors, what they're hearing from clients. You know, what are the themes

and trends that we need to be aware of. And you really kind of put it together. In terms of the technology world. You say, more digital, more innovation in space to come from. So what does that mean more specifically, Yeah, so, so more specifically, what I would say is people are applying technology to either be efficient or to deliver the right experience and the growth. But here is what I wanted to say. I mean people are looking at it

in an incremental fashion. That's good, there's nothing wrong in doing applying technology to make it better in an incremental way. But what I would you know, advise or make all the innovators think is to be completely reinvent what you do using this opportunity reinvent Either it could be a business model or it could be the way in which

we deliver products and tools. So meaning even in the inside, we're talking about how the advisory is changing from selling products and using tools to almost like perfecting your practice and focusing on your clients. So it's it's it's all about reinventing your business applying the technology. So it's more like technology driving and technology is enabling you to do these kind of What about when it comes to new

innovations like cryptocurrency? Carol and I were talking about bitcoin and Al Salvador becoming the first country to actually make bitcoin legal tender bitcoin right now trading it about thirty six thou dollars. How is technology changed that just during

the pandemic. Yeah, So so talking about crypto, the underlying blockchain, it's used for the digital currency as well as other so the technology of blockchain is there to exist now talking about crypto per se um, it's it's it is volatile and there's a lot of regulatory oversight on it.

So we at the environment and you know, actually announced that we are going to be supporting the crypto pretty much the entire life cycle for our clients to come and consume either from creation of the asset all the way to UM custoding and other type of things on top of the crypto. So my view on this is the technology is pretty solid, not only in the space of the cryptocurrency, but also into a smart contract and other type of lockchain applications. UM that's here to stay.

Even the cryptocurrency is here to say, it's just that UM. You know, we need to be conscious about where it gets applied, how it gets applied, based on the volatility and other things people need to select learned. I think the first thing is about the advisory community. It's all about learning the new as a classes and we will provide all the capabilities, but you need to match exactly where to use crypto with your clients and all of those is going to happen. So it's an evolving space.

But I wanted to say it's a space, it's an asset class that is here to stay. Run. What was the moment that that you realize that it was here to stay and you needed to make these changes from a technological perspective to offer this to clients. My thing is when when you see the price fluctuates and institutions getting in. See it started in a long time back. It actually started as a retail you know, the initial coin offering. But then when the institutions get inside, then

it's further real. It's further real. It's it's for the time. It's here to stay because everyone big and well they're all looking at the ethic classes. The regulation is looking at it. So they're trying to whether regulations are all looking at it. This is an asset class that's here to stay because they're all going to make it. You know, I don't want to say save and sound and correct and um for that athet class to say, and then it's for real. It's for you to stay, all right?

Can I leave with there? Rom so good to hear your voice. I'll be well and look forward to talking with you again. Rom Nagapon his chief information officer at B and Y Malon's pershing on the phone from New Jersey and interesting to hear him describe it as an asset class I know, and especially the way that they're involved in the process from blockchain creation, from the creation of the asset on the blockchain, or way they're thinking

about the blockchain. Michael Clans and we're all going to have a piece of it in our portfolio at some point, I know who knows. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Check it out. Another batch of names have been added to the meme stock frenzies. Retail traders latched down to their latest favorites today. So yes, we've had game Stop AMC hurts so last year, and yesterday we

talked about Clever Health and Wednesdays. Today, Tim, we got some new names we do. Katie Gratfeld from Bloomberg News is here to tell us all about it. She's cross Asset reporter and joins us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. She's also my anchor for Bloomberg Quick Take Stock. It happens each end every day at noon. You guys talk about meme stocks today, today, yesterday, probably tomorrow. It's what

there is, It's what is happening. And the big, the big, big question I have, Katie, is is what makes a stock a meme stock? That is what I'm trying to figure out, because I mean, if you look at the names that are moving today. You have GEO for example, that's a prison operator. You have Clean Energy Fuels that operates natural gas filling stations. It feels a little bit random. I mean, at least GEO. If you look at the short interests a G EO not GEO, No, it's GEO,

and short interest is pretty high. It's a thirty five per cent, So that's the potential short squeeze target. But it's not as clear. On Clean Energy Fuels. It just feels very much as high. I saw it on that and Wendy's yesterday wasn't that high, No, Wendy's. So Wendy's fits is interesting because it fits into this broader trend of very nostalgic names like very early two thousand's names

like game Stop, AMC. BlackBerry expressed. Those are all names that I don't know, at least to me, they evoke a specific place and time and that you have seen a little bit of that. But in these names that we're moving today, I don't think anyone has any warm, fuzzy feelings attached to GEO. For example, that prison operator.

I think that's fair to say, yeah, well, but but you know, we we were talking earlier before we get started a conversation we were having with Jail Webber, editor of Bloomber business Week magazine, because we have to think about how do we cover this because often there's a fair amount of volume in these names, right, and so when you look at the markets overall, but I do feel like when you look at market caps and things, there's such a small sliver of our financial and market

universe exactly. It almost feels like Russian roulette, where suddenly one day you're gonna wake up and there's just gonna be crazy volumes in names that really haven't seen anything like it. And it's interesting to me. I mean, it's interesting to try to track this ball of money around the markets. But it's also interesting to see professional investors trying to adapt to it, because I mean, what do

you do? And there's actually a great article on the terminal right now from my colleague Lou Wang, who woke to who spoke to Chris Harvey from Walls Fargo, who who said that his hedge fund clients they don't want to short any specific names. They're afraid of getting squeezed, so they're moving into shorting e t f s and really large companies because you don't want to end up in this situation if you have a lot of money

on the line. Well, I wonder about the chatter that's happening in places like Wall Street Bets right now, and it's a place that you spend a lot of time and look it's for work, saying I do, because that's where you're lurking on most days, and I do. I

do wonder what they're saying about these companies today. And also if it's possible for some hedge fund to come in and you know, front run essentially the conversation in there and say, wait a second, we're going to get in early on this because we know that when people talk about this in this forum, there's increased activity. I mean, you have heard a few investors or hedge funds come out and say that you know, we are basically doing that.

And if you do scroll through these pages, I mean you can kind of get a sense of people are trying to like put together blueprints, trying to identify short potential short squeeze targets. So there is a sense that, I mean, this can't all be retail. At a certain point, you probably see some more institutional some professional names come

in and try to capitalize on that. What's interesting is Clean Energy Fuels UM is up six out of the past seven trading sessions for a gain of nearly forty percent. It's up like forties six or five. I mean these are names. If you look at GEO Group, it's up eight of the past nine trading days for a gain of eighty two percent. So I mean it's it's half being over a week's period of time. And I do wonder when does it hit your radar or our radar that we put it in a story on the Bloomberg.

I think that's a great point, and that was something I was thinking about with clover Health earlier. Today. It's not doing so well today, but had an amazing day yesterday, and you saw options volume just spike yesterday. But if you look into April for example, or even last week, a few weeks leading up to yesterday, it was something you saw building. So it feels like it doesn't It's not like turning on a light switch. It's is something that builds, and but it just feels like it explodes

onto the radar on one specific day. And when you get double digit moves right, and I do wonder like, is there some formula or algorithm that people are trying to figure out that how do you track? Do you all of these meme stocks go up for about eight days? You know what I mean? Like I do wonder like what is how do we kind of find what the next one is? Because I knew Bloomberg Intelligence has been

looking at this stuff. Yeah, and that's something that I mean, my colleagues and I are trying to determine is there some pattern here? But then you have companies like a m C and Game Stop that just are constantly in the conversation that started the conversation, still in it. Well, you've got lots of work to do. From Bloomberg News Cross as a reporter, also Bloomberg Quick Take co anchor. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and

Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. All right, I can't sing this, but you know, Marguerite de Ville, it's definitely a hit song. I could. It's a chill state of mind. It's a multibillion dollar marketing empire, and Tim, it is a news attraction in Times Square. It is it's also the cover story for the new issue of Bloomberg business Week magazine. It's available on news stands and at bloomberg dot com slash business Week. Joining us now

is Joel Webber, editor of Bloomberg business Week. He joins us right here in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio, and Austin Carr, technology reporter for Bloomberg News, joining us on the phone from l A Joel, I learned so much. I learned all I always learned when I read stories and delivered business. I had no idea that Marguerita Ville's empire was this big. That's the best thing about this story is that little I mean, you know Jimmy Buffett from music, I mean it's near and dear to me,

um being the parenthead that I am. Uh. And the fact that he was able to turn one song into basically something that's even bigger than his music success. Um. This the scale of this empire is amazing and and it is a I'll call it a modest news hook.

But they are in the process of opening Margaritaville in Times Square, right off Times Square on four Year Street, and it is the it feels just like the perfect time to take over Manhattan with Margaritaville right as the city reopens and uh, you know we're all vaccinated and get to go celebrate with you know, um, way too many margaritis, I'm sure. Um. So, so Austin rewind the clock a little bit. Tell us about how you got

this story. So um. I actually started reporting this story because I had come across their frozen concoction maker, UM, which I would highly recommend. I think we described it in the story as the uh iPhone of adult beverage makers, and it very much is that. I mean, it's it's really a beautiful piece of machinery. And I just realized, oh my god, like if this company, Margaritaville, which I also had not associations to the song or to you know, a tequila hangover, but not to this sort of hardware

maker or hotel empire um. And so I just started getting interested in diving deeper into the research, and that's where this story started, and we realized there was so much more when we started talking with Margaritaville, their executives in Florida and just realizing they were not only opening this three and seventy million dollar property in Times Square, but right now we're in the process of developing twenty five or twenty six or more properties around the globe,

from retirement villages to boutique hotels, to resorts, to r V parks, parks, you name it. Uh. They're sort of really involved in so many different entities that that just sort of boggles the mind. How did it all get started? Often so we actually rewinds. Uh it goes back to the late nineties nineties. Uh. Margaritaville's CEO is a guy named John Colin. Uh, and he was moving down to Palm Beach uh and and met Jimmy Buffett through mutual friends.

And he has been in private equity before, just working at a company that owned Long John Silver's and and later bought Snapple and was involved in consumer branding. And when at a Jimmy Buffett, he just realized this is the biggest brand there is. These parrot heads sort of uh, you know, just really enjoying themselves at this concert, moving in universities and could sort of sort of you know, win over more consumers than uh, you know, Long John

Silver's ever could. And they started exploring John Colin and Jimmy whether or not they could build this into a larger empire. And the first thing that they opened was a big, massive restaurant in Orlando, UH near Universal Studios theme Park, which was sort of an ode to Jimmy Buffett and what he stood for in terms of Margaritaville's music, um, you know, sort of the general salt shaker vibe that

he has. And they've built it from there throughout the two thousands, turning it into more restaurants, a beer brand with Anneiser Busch Um, and a lot of consumer goods, including that Daquary maker I mentioned, which which retails for up to five dollars. You sounded like that one. I have to ask Houston five hundred dollars on a deactory maker. You saw the Bolli version which only retails for three. I'm you know, don't checking. Don't worry, Jill. You we

will prove that at the end of I think. Okay. But the interesting thing is, and we Tim and I were talking about this off air, it seems the model is very similar to President Trump's model of they don't own a lot, right, they don't own a ton of real estate behind all of this, they own a lot of I p intellectual property that's spread. It's what it's called an asset light model. UM. You know, that's Hilton has. I mean, that's frankly what European b has or uper

has to UM. I think it's the one thing that they were extremely successful was in a way that perhaps uh, former President Trump was not, was just in terms of overseeing the quality of products they licensed their name to, enforcing strict quality standards, so they're they're very involved in the design process, the development resorts, and the branding that goes into these things, just to make sure they live

up to their standards. So there's not sort of the equivalent of you know, there actually is a Margaritaville University. I was just going to ask if there was a Mary Niversity. It's a funny name they used for a college ambassador program just to sort of get younger fans on board, so they're not actually uh teaching kids. But it was I believe a lot more successful than Trump University was. But the in terms of just some of the other ecosystem products they have, Yeah, it's definitely that model.

If they like to sort of make sure you're you're drinking Jimmy's beer at the same time you're buying Jimmy's tequila, staying at their branded restaurants and hopefully later on their hotels, their vacation cottages and so forth. So it's sort of products that feed into each other and this this this virtuous brand loop. So Austin, how do they get the next generation of parrot heads? You mentioned the Margarita Ville University of the Ambassador program, but but how do they

make sure that this transcends age? Yeah? I think what they're trying to do is make sure that this is identified with more of a lifestyle rather than an individual. In other words, I think a lot of bands, no matter how old how young, will know that song and sort of can generally define what it stands for and sort of in terms of this beachy cash at a sort of sort of vacation island vibe, and that's what

they're building up more of. Um. I talked to Warren Buffett for the story UM, and and that was one thing he stood for He sort of mentioned was that this idea that it's sort of, um, you know, Jimmy is is not just Jimmy. He's sort of an institution that stands for this overall lifestyle that you know, Lord knows Hyatt would like to have, Lord knows you know Airbnb would want to you know have in the sense that this stands for something more universal, and I think

that's how they're going to go after younger fans. They also have, you know, land Shark beer, which you might have heard of, which is a competitor to Corona Um, and they have a lot of consumer goods that are targeting younger generations of fans that you know, are just

different from your average parrot head. I would say, I think the article cover story, uh, it makes you look at your life and look at your choices, and like, you know, it makes me want to build a business empired inspired off of a song, and also makes me wish I were Austin Car and like have three dollar decrees that inspire these stories. So thank you, Austin. We're

on our way. We'll go ahead. I was just gonna say, just to be clear, Joel, I did not expend then, needless to say, we're getting on a plane, We're coming over, and you've got to make some tagories or margarite is for us, um great stuff. Austin Car. It's the domestic cover story of Business Week. Magazine Tech Report, Bloomberg News, joining us from l A. Weber, editor Bloomberg Business Week. I gotta say I love that they the two buffets. No no relation though relation relation. Yeah, it's Jimmy is

definitely the other buffet in our world, you know. But clearly that world's bigger than world, depending on your level of being a parenthead. Right, yes, exactly. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So in about ninety minutes or so, we're gonna get earnings from the meme stock that started all I guess you could say we're talking about game stop. Yes, but do earnings even matter? I

don't think they do. They've had a twenty one billion dollars in market value this year. It's one billion. It's the original, it's the it's the original meme stock, Carol, Yeah exactly. So all right, let's get some perspective, and lucky for us, Bloomberg News Equities reporter Bailey lips Shelter is with us on the phone in New York City. Barely good to have you here with Tim and myself. So as to mentioned the results that we get from

Game Stop. The fundamental earnings and sales outlooked as it matter, not really all right, interviews over and let's you're looking from about one point one seven billion and quarterly revenue. But outside of that, there's really more of a focus on what's next. Obviously, they named Ryan Cohen chairman earlier today at their annual meeting, so that was a big news um peg and then he spoke to investors, which

kind of took Reddit by storm. But for the most part, from a fundamental standpoint, I don't think you can get anyone to come out and say poleheartedly that earnings today actually matter given where the stocks trading. Okay, so Bailey, what is that future that big believers in games Stop, people who have been behind the stock for months? What does that future look like? How does it compete with

Best Buy? How does it compete with Amazon? It's been pretty mom Cohen came out today saying that he thinks they're going in the right place and they have clear goals, but didn't offer too much um in the grand scheme of what that strategy looks like. Obviously, they've wiped out their dead they're working on closing down storefronts, which we're driving big losses. Before Cohen really pushed his way onto the board. Um, but from a grand scheme of things, the idea is that he'll be able to do what

happened with Chuli. Obviously everyone said Chuli would be successful with your pet cos and pet Smarts, and then obviously online retailers. The video games is obviously much much more difficult because you can download game straight to the PlayStation or straight to your Xbox, and you don't really need a company to deliver those products, right especially you know, I do wonder is there a way like the Apple store has created an experience where you go in and

play with products. I mean, you can order a lot of Apple stuff just online, right, you can easily do that. Is there a way for them to create some kind of experience at a game stop store that brings people in that somehow supports that retail environment. It seems far fetched, but I'm just curious. But that's been one of the things that, depending who you talk to and who are

core believers, see as a potential option. Obviously, it's as you said, it is a bit parfessional, hard to wrap your mind around, but you could have them get into the gaming in some capacity, whether that's sponsoring or owning a team professionally, or building up kind of like a training ground built into the stores that you go and practice against peers um in person and online. But that's kind of one of these one of the things that more people I talked to you want to see that

laid out. They want to see the future vision, vision, and something that can justify a lofty market value that's kind of much larger than what it was when it was trading for about four dollars last a lot. Bailey, you mentioned Ryan Cohen. Talk a little bit about him and how important he is to the Game Stops story,

at least as the retail investors see it. He's what you got behind when he came out with r C Veners and bought a twelve thirteen take in the company, pushed his way onto the board and obviously is now chairman um the company is looking for a CEO. So it's truly are investing in Game Stop. You're a believer that Ryan when he's going to come in and he's going to do what he's able to do with Chewy, and there is a long term vision where it can be very successful. I mean that's only thirtain five years

old co founder. Obviously, if Chewy turned into a private equity investor and has wiped up the board and really brought in alumni from Chewey and Amazon with a push towards consumer experience. So the goal is, um to kind of put your eggs in the basket. Hold on for a guy who makes a lot of jokes on Twitter with memes, but seems very locked in and obviously pretty closed off and hiding his cards. But you do wonder.

I mean, they did lease write a huge distribution center right seven square feet uh in Pennsylvania to improve its distribution and delivery, so they obviously have high expectations. I do wonder, as you said, Bailey, they've gotten rid of their debts, so they have certainly improved their financial house. Are their acquisitions they could make that could totally kind of turn this company into something different that ultimately made be as spun out or sold or acquired by somebody else.

I think that's the question, Um, what what is the big dep what is the big leap for game Stop? Do they get into game publishing? Maybe I don't know. Do they find a way to partner up with some of the game producers, or as you said, a real in person experience you look at like David Busters. Is that something in a future to be like, Uh, it's really remains to be seen. Bailey, we're you're you're you're one of the guys who covers meme stocks. Here you're

one of the people who covers meme stocks. And I'm wondering, did you think that, you know, five months after what we saw earlier in the year with Game Stop, we'd still be talking about game Stop or did you think that this would be short lived? I thought we would be talking about it. I did not imagine that we would see a trend where the basket of the O G Memes stock is treading where it was back in

late January. And I wouldn't have thought that AMC would take the world by storm like it has Windy's um you name the company clean Energy Tools. People were making jokes about cow poop on read it. I did not imagine you did big of a deal and this closely at touched to buy a core financial institutions. I just you know, one of the fun things I did, Bailey earlier today was like who owns game Stop and it's black Rock. I mean I understands probably in an index fund,

right and stuff. But and I know the's question is about whether it moves out of the Russell correct same with you and same with AMC. Right. So I mean there's a lot of big institutional investors. But you know, uh, Ryan cautioning that we've got a lot of work in front of us. I mean, this is not something that they flip a switch over night, Bailly, and it's a

different company or a different story exactly. And it's very tough because as an investor, um if your an institution almost twenty four billion dollars in market cap, is really tough to get behind when you're just talking about a vision and what it could be in this curriculaane task that is to reinvent and recreate Game Stop and making a core part of beginning then ecosystem. It's obviously very optimistic and there is a huge growth potential, but what

does that look like? Because if you're managing a good amount of money, it's hard to get behind a guy who was great one time with evaluation where it is now and let the stock trading got dollars when it was again four dollars about eleven months ago. All right, we'll be watching nonetheless for Game Stop earnings and we'll see what happens on that report. Bailey, great stuff, as I always blew R News Equities reporter Bailey Lipshelts brother

a journal Yeah, but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no, home, honey, please, I'll do the right gravel. Let me. I want to drive, all Just drive, baby. It's good questions trying. This is the drive to the globe than on Bloomberg Radio. All right, let's get to it. Everyone. Just about ten and a half minutes left in today's trading session. It is time for the drive to the clothes. We've been bouncing around, but we are just we've took another leg down in the last hour, so so we're near a loads of

the session. Let's bring Julian Brigden, co founder and president of Macro Intelligence. Are m I two partners. It's a global macroeconomic research firm. It's been around for a decade. Julian's with us on the phone in Colorado. Julian, how are you. I'm fantastic, Thank you very much. I was just listening to the weather forecast and relazy realizing why I'm glad I moved to Colorado. Hey way to rub it in, Okay, exactly three hundred days of sunshiny year

skiing in the in the winter. All Right, it's a little rough here right now. Not for you, though, UM markets makes sense of it. For us right now, we're we did see a leg down in the last hour. We're down undred and thirty seven, is Charlie just mentioned on the Dow. So little change the overall when it comes to the SMP and NASDAC. It feels like we're waiting for that inflation report tomorrow. But how do you see the trade right now? So I think, I mean,

I think these are incredibly calm markets. I mean there's really very very little going on. It's almost as though the sort of worlds decided post COVID or sending the U S has that they're going to disappear on vacation early for the summer. But they do think, what do you mean calm, the lack of volatility or just what what do you mean just lack of lack of clear direction. I think, to be briefly honest, I mean, you know, we were stuck in relatively big ranges. Whether you look

at the effects. Some commodities have come off the board a little bit, equities really sort of quite quiet and a little boring, and volumes that seemed to be very lack luster. As I said, it almost feels like an August market a month early or too early. But you you remember in summer's past, at least pre COVID that we saw I want to say, in eighteen and nineteen, maybe even before that, that often all of a sudden late summer. I only know because I'm often on vacation

that the market comes apart. We have a big sell off, yes, And I don't really see that so much this year. I've got to be honest with you. I mean I think, um, you know, there are some very important events coming up. We do have obviously the ECB tomorrow, and then also we've got this inflation print. But I think, you know, when I look at the inflation store and I think it's a huge story. And I'm not as sanguine as the FED when it comes to this assumption of transitory

at least I think from a market sex perspective. I mean, I think the FED would argue that their transitory maybe two years out. I really don't think the market is going to give them the benefits that about UM. But when I look at tomorrow, I'm looking for a pretty high number. Our work suggests that we could be looking for a number in the very high fives, possibly as high as six. For the headline CPI UM. I think, yeah, it's just look I mean in part, and it's just

base effect. It's a natural way of doing that. But when you look at just look at simple things like how high PPI is going UM and the rate of change on those, you can pretty much get a pretty good estimate for cp I. And I know J. Powell has told us that companies will be reluctant to pass on price increases, but I'm calling his bluff on that one.

I just I think we can see it in every single CEO conference call that when you create essentially in elastic demand by you know, stimulating the economy to this degree and then opening up, then companies do have pricing power, and I think CEOs are taking it with both hands

and using that to push on those increases. So I think you get a high print tomorrow, then I think we settle down and it's a it's a waiting game because we now have to and that the definition is we have to discuss this transitory and that doesn't happen in a month. It might happen in three months, it might happen in six months. Um. But it comes as much more as I said, it becomes a weighting game and not a sort of where's the peak, let's pickin that tail on that if if there is a high

print tomorrow, what happens to the equity market? Okay, I mean it really Well, the first question is what happens to the bomb market? I mean the bomber has settled down? Yeah, I mean really coming quite a lot. And I do think in part Carol, that's because people recognize this is likely to be the high print, right, you know, just from a base effect perspective. And then I said, we

go into this longer before elongated debate. Um. But obviously I think if you saw a number of this magnitude, mechanically, you've got to see a move in things like break evens, which should push push put some pression on on on nominals. Well, Jilian, but you know most of us, as I know, I've got my logical brain and I've got my oh my god,

look at that print. Our Bloomberg intelligence team has been reminding us that it's all going to take more time when it comes to these inflation numbers and really economic data points, and they're talking about in two to fully separate when it comes to things like you know, the transfer tory forces pushing prices higher than durable increases inflation, we will we be logical though, when we see kind

of a crazy print tomorrow. Do you think, especially when we're waiting kind of on earnings and that next batch of reports where CEO is give us some indication of what's going on. So look, I mean, I think there's enough stimulus, There is enough economic momentum in the economy. I mean, if I just look at so the invatory cycle, it's only really starting now and we can barely get ahead of the thing. When I look at the capex cycle,

to me, this seems early cycled type stuff. I mean, I think we've got enough economic remains to keep this economy going into the middle of next year. So you know, look, if you get a knee joke reaction on the NASTAC and I do think that's a market that still looks very very expensive, or should we say growth in inverted commas versus value looks still extraordinarily expensive even where the

bond market is now. I mean, our work suggests that that ratio between CDs and BE growth indexes and BE value index should be even where bond deals are now. Um that we could continue some of this sort of rotation game and you could get a knee jerk reaction tomorrow. UM, I'd love to say, I think it's going to be extraordinarily volatile, because that's what makes our day. I think we're going to be turning our wheels for a little bit.

How do you think equities are priced right now relative to where you think the economy is going, because you said the economy can continue strong into Excuse me, but I'm wondering what's priced into equities right now? And you said now that you think you're both so I think I think well, I think in general, I think the US looks extraordinarily expensive. Um. You know, I like to be invested in exuities. I think you know, macro guys and we always get a bad rap for this. You

know constantly want to pick the tops and things. But we all know that you don't really make that much money doing that. Long term, you've got to be invested um And when I look at US markets, they are extraordinarily high and extraordinarily high. But just to wrap up Julian, maybe not though, if that's where the growth is ultimately like, if the US market is leading in terms of growth, right, don't we have to compare it to kind of what's

going on around the rest of the world. Not really, because it's I think one factor that people don't necessarily take into account is the role of the dollar and the ability of the dollars the sucking that flow of funds to prop up those equities. And I think now that the dollar has started what I think is going to be a multi year decline. I mean the sort of thing that we saw between say two thousand and two and two thousand and eight, where the dollar drop um.

US equities tend to underperform in that environment because because foreign equity investors tend to take their money home because they don't hedge. So every day when they wake up their statement and they see, oh, well look they have that up a few percent, wait a second, the dollars down and equally offsetting them out they're not making any money in their currency, so I think, to me, that's an important point going forward. It just go ahead, girl,

go ahead. I was just gonna ask about wage growth and how important wage growth is because that, yeah, seconds extraordinarily important. And I think the big mistake that FED is making is that they viewed this as a O A CO nine type situation. When you look at the numbers, they look nothing like that. We're not dropping anywhere close to that degree. So we're starting at a much high level. Tim. Yeah, it definitely feels like a different thing. What fun come back?

Please soon. Julian bringed In, his co found and president of the Macro of Macro Intelligence are am I, two partners, as we mentioned, a global macro economic research burn from that's been around for about a decade. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube. Search to Bloomberg Global News