Hawks and Doves Clash Clouds Outlook for Rates - podcast episode cover

Hawks and Doves Clash Clouds Outlook for Rates

Jul 25, 202332 min
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Episode description

Steven Skancke, Chief Economic Advisor at Keel Point and Bloomberg News Economics Reporter Steve Matthews share their thoughts on the Fed policy and Wednesday's rate decision. Angelo Zino, Senior Equity Analyst at CFRA Research and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Technology Analyst Anurag Rana break down Microsoft earnings. Dr. Angela Fitch, Chief Medical Officer at Knownwell, explains why Ozempic won’t solve the nation’s obesity crisis. And we Drive to the Close with Michael Sheldon, Chief Investment Officer at Hightower RDM Financial Group.
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

Speaker 2

The FMC began it's today FED meeting. Of course, we get the decision tomorrow. So let's see what doctor Stephen Skanky has to say. He's back with US Chief Economic Advisor at Keele Point. He's a former US Treasury in White House National Security Council member. He's on Zoom in Washington, DC and Steve Matthews writing about the FED and the clash of FED hawks and doves deepening Steve, of course his Bloomberg News economics reporter, Steve Matthews in our DC bureau.

And let's just set the backdrop, doctor Skanky. Let me start with you. What are you anticipating or what's important about the FED meeting to mar because we pretty much expect we're going to get another quarter point rate hike unanimous or not.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I think that's right, Carol, And it is great to have you back, Tim, and congratulations, thank you, you know, on your family.

Speaker 2

He's helping out the economy. He's helping out the economy.

Speaker 3

That's wonderful. That's exactly what we need. And you know, build up that later force potential down the way, all.

Speaker 4

At the service of the economy.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 6

Also, truly, though, Carrol, you make a funny point on supporting a local economy. I mean, I really saw the balance of spending shift from being in midtown right to being in low local neighborhood where it's like, you know, Tuesday through Friday is like a weekend during the week.

Speaker 2

I bet right. Because of all this the stuff you guys were all right, So doctor Skanky, Steve Skanky, what do you expect the Fed? What's important about tomorrow's decision?

Speaker 3

Well, I think the twenty five basis point increase, which which takes it to a twenty two year high on the FED funds rate, is baked in, and I think it's also probably highly likely that they're going to continue to indicate a bias toward further increases. This is the hawkish view coming out absence significant improvement on inflation. And the thing is they can do that. I mean, they truly are emboldened. The hawks in particular are inbolded by the fact that we stick out a robust labor market.

We still have about a two to one ratio of vacancies to unemployed. There's a positive earnings outlook. Over the next twelve months, the earnings decline typically in this this sort of environment would be earnings growth would be down eighteen percent. It's down about six strong consumer balance sheet. You probably saw that the consumer net worth is bounced back up to one hundred and fifty two trillion, which is what it was at its eye, and the S

and B is up eighteen percent year to date. What has the FED got to lose by not getting head faked again on declining inflation?

Speaker 4

Okay, so sure they're going to be.

Speaker 3

Hawkysh there's no percentage for them to look like their sophety.

Speaker 6

Well, let's talk about that divide. And for that we turned to Bloomberg News economics reporter Steve Matthews. From Steven to Steve, he's in our DC bureau. Steve, you wrote about the cracks inside the FED deepening. Right now, what are the doves saying?

Speaker 7

So?

Speaker 5

I think the big picture here is everyone was hawkish over really the last year and really last year in three months because we had high inflation, we had low unemployment, and so there was great unity around the FOMC table. And now as we're reaching the end of the hiking cycle, which you know, a lot of Wall Street believes that tomorrow's hike is going to be the very last one, you're starting to see a split. On the side of the hawks, people like Chris Waller, the governor, and Jim Bullard,

who's retiring, Loretta Mester of Cleveland. They are saying, you know, we want to avoid the nineteen seventies inflation again, and we're going to do whatever's necessary, and we'd rather err on the side of doing too much, and we have too hot of a labor market, and until that starts to show some cracks, we're going to have too much inflation. On the side of the doves, people like Raphael Bostick

and Austin Goules. Bostick from the Atlanta Fed, Gulesby from the Chicago Fed are saying, basically, let's not overdo it. And you know what, the problem with the inflation over the last two years is not that we've had too much demand. It that, you know, we've had a pandemic and the pandemic has changed the economy, and you've had all supply disruptions and all these you know, disruptive changes, and that's what inflation is about. So we don't really need necessarily have to overdo it.

Speaker 2

It feels like Goldilocks and the three Feds, to be quite honest with you, I mean, what's great is too I don't know if you guys read the editorial by Bloomberg editors. It's a Bloomberg opinion piece, but they remind us that if you look at the so called core CPO, still four point eight percent higher in June than a year ago. Right, And so if you know, Steve Skanky, if the FED is truly committed to two percent, and this opinion piece says, the FED shouldn't settle for above

target inflation. If two percent is the real target, then we have to be careful, or the FED has to be careful about pulling off the brakes right too early and then inflation rearing its ugly head again, Housing starting to come back again, wage pressures, wage inflation still an issue.

Speaker 3

Well, that's right, but when we look at the June CPI number of core prices were up only zero point one six month over a month, which is equivalent to slightly less than two percent on an annualized basis, And I'd be the first to caution against trying to extrapolate too much from a one month move, but it's an indication that they can actually achieve their goal, and as I said, there's no gain for them to back off from it at this point, and given how well other

things are doing, I think they will air on the side of certainly hawkish rhetoric now. I also happen to think that the twenty five BIPs announced tomorrow will be their last, but I don't think that they're going to say that it's their last. They want to keep the attention focused on their mandate and their plan to bring

it down, and so I think that's why. Notwithstanding and I don't disagree with Steve Matthew's observations about the split, we even saw a little bit of that with the San Francisco FED president in pointing out how much the Fed had done already when you add the quantitative tightening on top of the interest rate increases. But they don't want to look like they're giving up on it yet, even though I don't think we're going to see any more interest rate increases.

Speaker 2

So Steve Matt oh sorry, ah, no, no, no, go ahead, just quickly.

Speaker 7

Yeah.

Speaker 3

The other thing that's out there is over the last felve months we've had M two money supply down four percent. We haven't seen that since the nineteen thirties now, and we know that that has on average an eighteen percent lag. There's in the economics profession, there's a lot of folks

that say, oh, money supply doesn't matter anymore. But I don't think it's a coincidence that after we raise the money supply thirty four percent in the immediate post pandemic period, that we got inflation at nine percent, you know, fifteen months ago. Yeah, and when you look at when this basically started, about March or April of next year, is is when we would expect when we could expect that to start to bite.

Speaker 2

Right, Hey, hang on a six, Steve, just twenty five seconds. I say for you, unemployment doesn't it have to go up though for inflation to come down very quickly.

Speaker 5

There's a debate about that. You know, certainly the center of the committee, including Chair Pale, believes it does have to go up, that it's that we've overshot full employment and we need to get at least back to maybe four percent unemployment. Right, but you know, there are certainly people on the committee who say, you know, the Phillips curve relationship between unemployment and inflation is dad. We'll have to see.

Speaker 2

All right, Well, great story to Steve Matthews, economics reporter at Bloomberg News, doctor Steve Skanky, chief economic advisor at kel Point, and you are listening and watching Bloomberg Radio.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

All right, we want to go back though to Microsoft. We just talked about their earnings coming out. As remain reminded me the guidance on the earnings call, that's pretty typical for the company. The stock now call it pretty much flat in the aftermarket, but we've seen it bouncing around in a big way with us right now to talk about it is CFR a Research senior equity analyst. Angelo's you know on zoom in New York City. And then Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Tech Analyst Ana Agrana Our Bloomberg

Interactive Brokers Studio Anraag. I want to go straight to you first. I was listening kind of glued to surveillance this morning. What do you make of Microsoft?

Speaker 8

I think everything is slightly above what people were expecting. But the big question is what is going to be the cloud guidance for next quarter? And you know, does it mark the I would say, the bottom in the declining root of cloud? Or are we going to look at another quarter or so of declining growth and then we see a U turn because of all the AI workloads that are going to come up.

Speaker 2

Remind us what's going on with cloud in terms of is it business spending just pulling back or what?

Speaker 8

Yeah, it is? That is what it is. A law of larger numbers added with very pessimistic corporate tite spending last year. As you grow forty six percent this year, now it seems you know, it is around the twenty seven percent mark. The question is the next quarter is it going to be twenty eight or is it going to be twenty five and below? So that's where we are at this point.

Speaker 6

I just give us an idea hon rog of what happens with with Microsoft and AI and what that looks like from a user perspective. I mean, we've all been there and I think played with Chatchip. We see the way when we're typing email on Gmail, it does autocomplete. But when you power services and software for so many Fortune five hundred companies, how do you integrate AI seamlessly into those products?

Speaker 8

So first and foremost, when you look at anything generative AI, Microsoft is the number one choice for a lot of the software venders. I mean when you look at the when you want to play AI in generative AI. You know, when you want a hard when you want the chip, you're going to go to Nvidia. But when you come to software, Microsoft has a lead in terms of intellectual capacity. What they have shown no matter compared to everybody else.

Now they have to show that they can add revenue to it, they can add more cloud usage to it, et cetera. In the long run, what you mentioned, companies are going to use this technology to power their internal productivity. But again that could take a while. So we really are looking today to see whether we are seeing an increase in workloads on their cloud portfolio. Or are we looking at corporate spending going down and offsetting any of those positives?

Speaker 2

Right, Angela's you know, come on in on the conversation. In terms of what we saw from Microsoft.

Speaker 9

Yeah, no, I think as far as Microsoft is concerned, it was pretty much in line with expectations. I mean, of course, you know, what we're all kind of interested about is kind of how AI is progressing right here

with with the company. I mean, clearly when you kind of think of, you know, the super seven that are out there in terms of the biggest bell weathers, you know, we think the best ways to play the AI story right now continue to be in video as well as as Microsoft because those are the ones that have been able to kind of really show the ability to monetize

more kind of you know, near term in nature. So you know, clearly it's all going to be about, you know, the story that Microsoft tells on the earnings call here today. But that being set, I mean, our view here as far as my Microsoft is concerned, is they've got so many drivers as far as the AI story is concerned. Their tentacles aren so many different things that you know, if you see any type of significant pullback here after hours, you definitely want to be a buyer of the shares.

Speaker 6

Angel Who should we be concerned about in terms of losing not market share, but not being on AI bandwagon. I mean, I hear of Microsoft Azure. I wonder, okay, well, who's the biggest cloud player? We know, Amazon's Amazon Web Services is do they have what it takes to compete when it comes to AI?

Speaker 9

Yeah, listen, and I don't personally cover Amazon, but I

will tell you this. I mean, we do think that you know, Microsoft as well as Alphabet, has a distinct advantage, you know, given kind of you know, their exposure within the enterprise space and some of the tools that they're kind of rolling out on the AI side, I think relative to maybe you know, what AWS has to offer out there, and just given the size of AWS relative to the others, specifically on Alphabet side of things, we do think the other two in terms of Alphabet and Microsoft,

are likely going to be shared takers here over the next twelve months at least. I'm a cloud side of things.

Speaker 2

Anreg you mentioned about, you know, the cloud growth that we're seeing, and they're talking about a twenty six percent number, the number that we got a year ago. Was that just off the charts, So that's not a fair comparison or no.

Speaker 8

No, no, they have been growing much faster than the year before, and that's and that's also a function of Microsoft's cloud portfolio is much smaller than Amazon's, so it's just a matter of them catching up increasing, you know, moving a lot more of the on premise workloads onto their portfolio. So it's the growth story for Microsoft Cloud has been there. Last year we saw an unusual slow down or the last twelve months. The question is how

long is this slowdown going to last? You know, in our view, it's going to be either this quarter or next and then we should start see a U turn.

Speaker 2

What I don't get is, I mean everything's in the cloud. I throw more stuff in the cloud. Everybody throws more stuff in the cloud. So when we see a little bit so help me.

Speaker 8

So the consumer side, I get it. All my pictures are in cloud, right, But when you.

Speaker 2

Look at corporate, it like another expansion.

Speaker 8

When you look at corporatite spending less than twenty percent of the workloads, less than thirty percent of the workloads, depending on how you you know, define it, the majority of corporatite spending is on premise. So we have a decade of growth over.

Speaker 6

Here, which is does it stay on premise for security reasons? Does it stay on premise?

Speaker 7

No?

Speaker 8

No, No, it's just it's just lethargy. It's just legacy. I you spend twenty thirty billion dollars off you know, I'm just saying, let's say a big bank over the years just to develop a lot of these applications in house, it's just going to take time for that to move.

Speaker 2

Hey, Angela, what's the number one question or come on in on the conversation.

Speaker 9

Yeah, No, I mean as far as kind of what we're looking for, at least for Microsoft here, it's really kind of, you know, to the extent to what extent are they going to be able to monetize you know, the AI revenue here in the September quarter as well as December quarter if you're kind of you know, more near term oriented in nature, and you know, our view again is when you kind of look at the some of the commentary they provided in terms of co pilot last week, in terms of it, you know, coming in

at a price point about thirty dollars per seed, as well as kind of again those cloud opportunities kind of you know, even potential to the search extension potential that they've got on that side of things as well. We do expect revenue to accelerate here in the September quarter and therefore and you know also in the December quarter. If you don't see that, I think really you know,

that's where the stock could really take a hit. And you know, so that's what we're really kind of looking for as far as you know, what to expect and how to kind of look at the stock here going you know, through this their news.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean before I mean at the close, the stock was up forty six percent so far this year. Right now we're seeing shares of Microsoft just trending a little bit lower in the aftermarket, down about one point five percent. All right, guys, thank you so much, So appreciate it. Angelo Zino, Senior Equity analyst evert CFR Research, joining us in New York City and Agrana right here in our studio. He is senior technology analyst of Bloomberg Intelligence.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Jo Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

So we're gonna shift a little bit from earnings, you know, Tim, We've been talking a lot about the current cur cover

of Bloomberg Business Week. It's all about WW weight Watchers and their new strategy where they are really banking big time on this kind of new class of weight loss drugs that we're talking about ZEBEK and WEGOV wegovy Am I saying it right, I was going to ask you, Yeah, And so we wanted to take a little bit of a bigger look at what's going on with obesity because we have definitely seen the economic worldwide economic impact of obesity and excess body weight expected to more than double

to four point two seven trillion and twenty thirty five from twenty twenty levels. I mean, there is a big cost healthcare wise, productivity wise, and just you know, health wise for individuals.

Speaker 6

Fortunately, this afternoon, we've got doctor Angela Fitch with us, the co founder and chief medical officer at the Boston based healthcare practice known well President of the Obesity Medicine Association OMA. It's a network and networking group for healthcare providers. Doctor Fitch is an assistant professor of medicine at Harvard. Joined us via zoom from Boston. It's good to have you with us. Doctor, Thank you so much for joining us.

So talk a little bit about Carol laid this out for us, but obesity not just a problem for health and the problem for healthcare. Lay out the problem why it's just such a problem for society and not just America right now.

Speaker 7

Yes, I think Carol did an amazing job of highlighting that. Not only that, you know, so many people are focusing on the cost of medication right now, but there's a huge cost to not treating obesity as well. The WHO a few months ago published the World Health Organization published a announcement saying that we are spending as much on obesity as we did on COVID every year. So, in other words, the COVID pandemic, the cost of the COVID pandemic across the world is what is also spent on

the disease of obesity. So it's not trivial. And now that we finally have effective treatment for it, we really need to find a way to work together. They're at all levels to try to help people get access to this care.

Speaker 2

What do you think of these weight loss drugs? O Zebek? I know people individuals who are taking them. Some are diabetics and it's a game changer in terms of their levels really kind of evening out and they're losing weight. And then we know the celebrity stories and all these people who are taking it to just lose a lot of weight. But what do you think of this class of drugs?

Speaker 7

So in our OBC treatment space, you know the five thousand clinicians that are members of our OBSCD Medicine Association that I'm the president of right now and honored to be. So you know, all of us are very excited about today and the future of weight management. And we like to talk about these drugs as antiobesit pharmacotherapy too, right because they're not just about weight loss. We're talking about treating a disease of obesity, which isn't just focused on

a number on the scale. There's many reasons why people want to lose weight, to be able to be more mobile, to be able to do better at their jobs. For some people their livelihood depends on it. So again it's a very important thing to consider them as antiobesc pharmace what there be, and that is really the week gov right because we govy is approved for weight management, while ozembic is a proved for diabetes treatment. And so again

we do want to focus on the right language. You know, as we talk about these treatment strategies, Well, this.

Speaker 6

Is just one strategy when it comes to treatment strategies. What are other treatment But it's one that's getting a lot of attention right now for a lot of reasons. What are the other strategies that people should be focused on.

Speaker 2

Well, again, this.

Speaker 7

Is all part of a comprehensive care pathway, right for any chronic disease, whether that's diabetes, hypertension, heart disease. You know, we've always focused in medicine on not just the one pillar of treatment, which is a medication option, but on other lifestyle factors as well, and for other chronic diseases. We've always focused on this, but we've never made people necessarily jump through the same hoops that we make them

jump through. And we talk about obesity because there still is a large societal feeling that obesity should be able to be treated by oneself, that we can somehow overcome this disease by our own will power or our own accord.

Speaker 2

I have a colleague, you set, that's exactly what this individual says to me. It's like it's just a choice, you know, just don't pick up the ice cream kind of the case.

Speaker 7

Right, We find scientifically, actually that that's not the case at all, That this is a multifactorial disease. And certainly lifestyle changes are very important for all of us. The environment we live in is not healthful today, and we need to work to change that also, right at at the higher levels.

Speaker 6

Right of government government, Yes, so talk about the talk about what you think the government should do.

Speaker 7

Well, you know, that's always hard to say exactly because it goes back and forth, you know, depending, But I do believe that we have to make changes, even you know, at the society level where we can make choices, right, so we can choose to vote people into office that are going to support more broader treatments for obesity as we look towards the future too, and also you know, making our lives more healthful as well, you know, providing

more access to fruits, vegetables, providing more access to whole foods instead of process.

Speaker 2

You know what, I feel like, I've heard that, just like a couple of other things about diversity and so on and so forth. I've been doing this a long time. Tim has too. It's like the idea about a healthier diet. I get it. And then you know, you have a massive processed food industry, you know.

Speaker 4

Sugar, you desert yea many cities.

Speaker 2

So how it's hard to manage? Well, so how do we fix it?

Speaker 3

Well?

Speaker 7

I think we fix it. I mean, I think that's the that's the multi trillion dollar question. I'm not sure how we fix it as a society. We have to move towards some of the things that that higher level you know, people have talked about in this sort of This is not my level of expertise as well as far as food policy goes. But I do think that the more we as consumers as well, you know, at the grocery stores, can make those choices as much as

we can. And again, we recognize it's hard for a lot of people, but we're also improving that at local environments. At the Mass General Weight Center where I used to work, and at Mass General in general, we have a food bank now that provides fruits and vegetables to people who live in food deserts. So there's a lot of these sort of ground swell of things that are cropping up across communities. I think to help in the community setting to improve access to nutrition.

Speaker 2

Now all part of this important conversation. As we said, the cover story of Bloomberg BusinessWeek is all about what WW is doing with these drugs and their new strategy. Doctor Angela Fitch, thank you so much, really enjoyed it. A co founder and chief medical officer at Known Well and, as we said, and president of the OBCD Medicine Association.

Speaker 1

Amarcle a journal.

Speaker 5

Now about you let me drive, No, no, no, honey, please, I'll do the driving gravels East.

Speaker 2

I want to try it.

Speaker 6

It's a good question time.

Speaker 1

This is the drive to the Globe on Bloomberg Radio.

Speaker 2

All right, TikTok, everybody under eighteen minutes left in today's trading session. It's a big day. We know the FAE kicked off. It's two day meeting. But what we're really focusing focusing on, tim is the Microsoft and Alphabet earnings after the closing snap.

Speaker 4

Are we focusing on the FED decision.

Speaker 2

No, it's earnings right now.

Speaker 6

But you know, remember we remember, I mean think back to six months ago. I know what what was driving the market. Was it what the FED was doing or was it the earnings of one or two companies.

Speaker 2

I feel like it was, you know, the big Macro for exactly.

Speaker 6

But I just like you read a nice little article earlier in the day.

Speaker 7

I want to know.

Speaker 2

About fundamental I know, I want to know. I also want to know what Michael Sheldon has to say. He's executive director and chief investment officer at the registered investment advisor High Tower RDM Financial Group, joining us once again on Zoom in Westport, Connecticut. It is a big day, Michael. Good to have you here with Tim and my big tech earnings, the FED decision. What's more important to you and what are your clients most ask you about?

Speaker 10

Well, there's a lot going on this week. We have one hundred and sixty six companies and the S and P five hundred reporting. None more important than some of these big tech stocks. I think for this full week, the three things we're watching the most are One is all the earnings that are coming out. Two is the FED meeting. Tomorrow and on Friday is the PC inflation index, which the FED has been watching pretty closely. So I think overall investors are wondering what the outlook for the

market is in the second half of the year. We came into this year with a lot of pessimism. I mean, there were some reasons to be negative. There were a lot of the traditional historical sort of economic indicators, like the shape of the yield curve and the leading Economic index, which historically a forecast recession. So there's a lot of pessimism in the markets. Fast forward to today, things are

sort of in a better place. I think investors are looking at the market with a sort of a glass half empty is a glass half fall, excuse me, as opposed to glass half empty right now. So we don't think we're completely out of the woods, but things are a little bit better than they were starting the year.

Speaker 6

I mean, if you look at the S and P five hundred, things are a lot better than the start of the year, up close to twenty percent. The big question is what could derail this rally?

Speaker 10

Yeah, so that's a good question. I think the thing that has stood out to us for a while is one is if the FED overdoes things Historically, Unfortunately, the

FED has a tendency to crash the party. So if they raise rates more than expected tomorrow, there's like a ninety nine percent chance of a quarter point rate hike, and then following that, there are three more rate three more meetings this year, So interestingly, at each of the next three meetings, there's about a twenty to thirty five percent chance that the FED raises rates by another quarter point. So if they raise rates too much, that would be

a factor. Second would be if inflation does not continue to come down as expected, that would be a problem because that was sort of factored into a lot of decisions, a lot of after sort of outlooks that the FED

wouldn't be able to move the sidelines. And third, most importantly is since stocks follow tend to follow the direction of corporate profits over time, if corporate profits don't follow through and rise starting in the fourth quarter of this year in early next year, that could be a problem.

Speaker 2

Can I want to jump in for a second, because you said the FED could crash the party. Sometimes you have to crash a party. Sometimes you have to do the unthinkable. Just ask, you know, Paul Volker, what he had to do, right. You know, there is a lot of writing going on that if the Fed is true to that two percent rate, as you said that one of the things that you are watching, of three is

the PCE inflation index. So if that the core or whatever metric that the FED really watches that is still above two percent, if that's what we've got to focus on, then maybe the FED has to keep raising rates. Do you agree with that?

Speaker 10

Yeah, the Fed's walking a tough line here In some of the speeches that Greens that sorry excuse me, that Powell has given, He's been firm about bringing inflation down to two percent, but it is possible that if inflation gets downsay below three percent, and we start to see weaker economically.

Speaker 2

Which inflation though? Which inflation? Because there's so many different ways to dice and slice it.

Speaker 10

A good point, So the real inflation rate that he's watching is the core PCEE index. You could also throw in the core core CPI index, but the core pc index, which is much higher than two percent right now, is sort of what he's looking for. So, you know, just to put things in perspective, the overall CPI inflation rate was nine point one percent a year ago this month

and nounce down to three point three percent. The core PC index is currently I believe at four point eight percent, and that was either in the mid fives or mid six it's about a year ago. So inflation is coming down the core numbers not as quickly as expected, although based on a number of trends, it does look like those numbers should continue to sort of move lower as we go through the end of the year.

Speaker 4

Is this is this rally? Is this rally warranted? Michael?

Speaker 10

I think I think we're starting to see a little bit of exuberance in the market, or maybe you could look at some of the sentiment indicators which are starting to get a little bit maybe maybe the sentiment indicators starting to eat up a little bit, just a bit. For example, if you look at the American Association of Individual Investors survey, we almost have thirty percent more bulls than bears, which is the highest we've seen in some time.

In addition, if you look at valuation levels for the forward twelve months for the earning earnings for the S and P five hundred, we started the year at a little over seventeen times and now we're over twenty one times, so we've seen some We've seen a lot of positive momentum in the market. Some of it's warranted because it looks like a recession. The possibility of recession or downturn in the economy has been put off till later this

year or early next year. I think the rate of increase in the markets will probably start to ebb a little bit. But one last thing I think is important is that we're starting to see some broadening in different parts of the market. So for example, so far this quarter, the equal weighted S and P five hundred is outperforming the S and P five hundred, and areas of the market like financials and energies are outperforming tech. So that's a healthy thing for the market to continue to move higher.

Speaker 2

Would you be buying big tech like your Microsoft or your Meta, or your Amazon or Netflix at this.

Speaker 10

Point, we're big believers in technology. You need to have some growth in your portfolios. We're financial advisors, so we're trying to make sure that clients meet their long term investment objectives, whatever those may be. So you want to have some technology in your portfolios. We own the big cap tech stocks, not all of them, but we own them. I think the important thing is to size them appropriately within client portfolios.

Speaker 6

So just about thirty seconds left, Michael, what would you say to somebody who sat on the sidelines with a lot of cash over the last few months and missed out on this one?

Speaker 10

Sorry? No, sorry, Well, I think the important thing is this to understand that client's long term investment of jasives. Obviously you have to think about their risk tolerance levels. But it seems like the markets are likely to continue to sort of grind higher into the end of the year. There are a lot of investors sitting on the sidelines. We have more than five trillion dollars in money markets. Not all of that's going to come out because cash

now has an attractive yield. But as long as the outlook for the economy is stuff that it's so resilient and the outlook for a recession is put up till next year, I think the odds of further upside in the markets is positive. Although we certainly will have some sort of pullback or correction before too long.

Speaker 2

It does get.

Speaker 4

Are calling it.

Speaker 2

It feels like so much of the chasm out there. Michael Shelvin, executive director and a team investment officer are at Financial Group. Once you're from West Park at again, you're listing and launching Bloomberg Business Week from Boomberg Radio.

Speaker 1

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