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We do have our most read story in the Bloomberg now that Hamas has agreed to release all Israeli hostages captured in that October seventh attack, but said the rest of President Donald Trump's twenty point peace plan would be subject to negotiation.
Let's get the latest on that.
For that, we do head to our Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Defense alys Wayne Sanders joining us. Wayne, This feels like a big development, but again with caveats, walk us through what's significant and what's still to be known.
Well, I think the fact that they're doing anything at all at this point in time is good, right, It's showing that from Hamas's side is Hey, look, we need to come to the table with more than just with more than just rhetoric. We actually have to put action to this. I think the Sunday deadline that President Trump put out is something that he's holding to, and I mean he's said what he was planning on doing, if not right, unleashing all hell on against Hamas. So they
are taking it seriously. But at the same time, they do recognize that they're not able to just go ahead and submit to all twenty twenty of those. So I think there's going to be a lot of the geopolitical play over the weekend where they're trying to figure out how to reach I don't know whether they're going to go to all twenty and then it's really going to be back into President Trump's hands.
Where do you yeah, other parts of the President's twenty point plan require a unified national stance and must be addressed based on relevant international laws and resolutions. Where does it seem like to you. I don't want to call them sticking points, because the twenty point plan is very deep tilled, but based on the statement that we got from Hamas, what does it seem like they are not agreeing to at this point and why?
I think I think some of the points that are really sticking with is just taking some of the ownership as part of it, right, They realized that inside that region when you're looking at what what countries are going to go towards towards in backing the US and President Trump's plan, and then which ones may not. You know, there's a lot of geopolitical pieces that play in the here. Likely with Trump is going to be UAE, It's going
to be functionally on Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. There are other ones that are not pro Hamas, but they're also not with President Trump as well. And that's like guitar and Aman and Kuwait. They all playing different plays in this, right. So I think the sticking point is making sure that if if AMAS is coming to the table, what how is it going to be felt within the region from the Gulf states that may there still may try to get out of their side.
I mean, yeah, and.
The relationships are so tricky here, right, like trying to understand it and all the implications of such. Having said that, I mean my understanding that I think we were talking to a member of the Bloomberg team on the ground about was it on Monday and that there were still things going off in Gaza.
Yeah, as he was talking to us, we were hearing ordinance, right, Yeah.
And so it's just it's very tricky, it's very delicate, and I'm just curious where Israel is in all of this, and I guess we're going to be watching them very closely here.
Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, when you think about it, it's a military offensive that they're putting on until they feel that that Hamas has actually come to the table and has met those demands, right, So they're not going to back off. I mean, at the most they would probably do is they would hold the positions that they currently have.
But if there are military strikes based off of, you know, credible threat intelligence that they have of Hamas leadership as of right now, as of the time of this broadcast, right, they have not agreed to the twenty So therefore then they consider it fair game as part of their offensive operations that they have said that they were going to do. They warned ahead of time that it was going to happen, and so if they're still going to conduct that through that.
We saw that even in Israel Iran when when that was going off before Operation Midnight Hammer is even when President Trump was saying, hey, here are the timelines and here's kind of the date, we're going to put this line in the sand. You still saw Israel and Iran still continuing to fire at each other right up until that last minute. So I bet this is part of that.
All Right, I'm going to be silly here, but we are living in silly and interesting and difficult times to say that. And Bloomberg is a whole story on this, So I feel it's very credible, Wayne, But we have a story. President Trump wants the Nobel Prize and is applying pressure to win it. And I just the timing of all of this, because I think the Peace Prize is going to be Is it announced next week or very soon? And so I just wonder timing in all of this. Is it silly to even bring it up.
I wouldn't say it's silly to bring it up. I mean might be in the back of the mind. I mean you heard during his conference with Secretary Hegsath and all of the generals that took place on Tuesday, he brought that up. He goes, they're not going to give it to me. He almost made a flippant comment about you know, like, oh, they're not going to give it to me. They're going to give it to somebody else, but it was something that he did still bring up, So I think that is something that is out there.
Otherwise I don't think he would have brought it up in front of all the military leadership on Tuesday.
And we should say the winner is going to be announced on October ten, So it is just around the corner.
Yeah.
The President told the UN General Assembly last week that everyone says they should get the Nobel Peace Prize, arguing that he and the US never received any credit for striking Abraham Accords.
More importantly, I think about not silly.
Is this going to bring real peace to this part of the Middle East and really bring an end to a conflict that we have seen between Israel and Hamas that has gone on for so long.
Yeah, that's a really, really tough one, one that is way above my pay grade. I only say that just from the standpoint is there is so much history, so much of their cultures that have been tied to this for thousands of years. This isn't you know. This is a new thing that's kind of coming up. So I have a hard time believing that they ever are going to completely just want to be at peace with one another.
But I think that if least you can create some you know, strict boundaries and guidelines that are on that may at least provide some resolving piece over at least the near term.
Wayne Sanders from our Bloomberg Intelligence team joining us from just outside of Washington, d C.
And Bald's a power with Joe Matthew.
We'll have more on all of this, the ins and outs of all of the news out of the nation's capital coming up at five pm Wall Street time, and of course the latest on what we are hearing on this Humas agreement.
It seems like saying it agrees.
To release all Israeli hostages again coming out in a statement.
All right, Wayne, thank you so much for that.
Stay with us. More Fromloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.
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Normally we would be talking about this being jobs Friday. You know that's not the case because of the US government shutdown, So we are leaning on other data points and voices for clues on the labor market, and that includes members of the Federal Reserve, including the newest member of the FED Board, Stephen Myron, who earlier joined Bloomberg TV and Radio. One of the things he stressed that he may just be data dependent after all, just like Fitchair J.
Powell.
So my view is driven by two things. Sheltered sorry services are the more persistent and sticky part of inflation. Services are driven in large part by housing, and I expect housing inflation to come down through those channels. If something were to happen that were to tell me that that channel is in validate, that there's some shock that's going to be pushing rints materially higher, the benign inflation forecast that I have would have to be adjusted as a result.
That's FED Governor Stephen Myrin earlier today on Bloomberg Television also Sheriff President Trump's Council and Economic Advisors on leave, though from that job now FED Governor. As we mentioned, Michael McKee part of the team that did that interview. He's with us right now. He's Bloomberg TV and Radio International Economics and Policy correspondent. He joins us here in
the Bloomberg BusinessWeek Studio. So we're going to talk about him being data dependent in just a second, but I want to stick on this idea of shelter as it relates to the inflationary view. What is his thesis, What is his theory that that part of inflation will start to ease.
Well, the theory is that because they are removing so many undocumented aliens from the United States, it will reduce demand for housing, and that will bring down the price of housing because more houses will be available to those who are still here. It's based on a study that was done in two thousand and three about the Marial boat lift in Miami, which found that there was sort of a one to one relationship there between removal and
prices going down. A lot of economists say that's a tough thing to scale up nationwide and to say is a rule that will apply in the future. But that's his story and that's what his belief is in terms of bringing down service price inflation and therefore overall inflation.
Well, shelter such a tricky thing for the FED too, actually effect and Fetcher J. Powell has talked about this for years.
Mike.
He said, given the tools that we have we can only do so much when it comes to shelter prices, and in fact, he's talked about that being more of a policy issue in the past than it is about being part of the FEDS to a mandate.
Well, most analysts of the housing industry say that the problem for housing is that there's not enough supply, and a lot of that has to do with zoning regulations. In cities. You can always build out in the suburbs. Now you have to go to the exerbs, and you start to get so far away from people's jobs that they don't want to move out there. They'd like housing in the more central areas, which means you need more density, and that's a big fight always, So that is a
policy problem. The other problem is that the FED controls short rates, and so if you are worried about mortgage rates, that they're going to be much more closely tied to long treasuries like the ten year, and that's going to be priced by the markets in what they think of inflation is going to be. So it's another reason why people are dubious about Myron's view on bringing down inflation through housing.
Three or four houses for Salem, my I block. So there's definitely some supply that I am seeing. And I remember actually a voice this week on surveillance with Tom and Paul that they talked in the morning about No, there is plenty of supply out there. So I'm a little confused. I want to move on to another FED voice, Fed Reserve Vice Chair of Philip Jefferson making some comments and cautioning on risks to inflations, to inflation.
And job goals.
There are FED voices that matter more than most, and we know Jay Powell is certainly one of them.
What about mister Jefferson.
Well, he matters in the sense that as Vice chair, he's not going to dissent unless he has some horrible disagreement with j Powell. And so if that's where he is, that's where Powell is. And you get the same thing when you're talking about what John Williams thinks is the vice chair of the Open Market Committee. So it tells us that basically the FED is on board with another rate cut, because that's what Powell suggested at the last meeting.
The question is is it October or December. Most people in the markets think it'll be October, and without data, the general feeling seems to be well, that doesn't give them a reason to change their mind. Now, it could give them a reason to wait, yeah, and see what happens. But I think what we have to do is wait until we get closer to the end of the month the meeting's on the twenty ninth of October, and then start judging what FED people are saying.
Speaking of changing one's mind, and I do want to go back to Steve Myron for a moment from the conversation that you had this morning with the team on Bloomberg TV and radio.
Is it fair to.
Say he is kind of data dependent? Did he kind of come across that way?
Well, he stated dependent to the extent that the data back up what he thinks is going to happen. He's saying that he is looking forward, which is basically more base being based more on forecasts than on past data. So it's going to be hard to say he's wrong in the short term because whatever he's predicting hasn't happened yet.
But his view is that the economy is going to slow, that the labor market is going to slow, and that inflation is also going to come down, and therefore you could cut rates, and you should cut rates more quickly because you don't want the economy to weaken too much. But again it's all based on forecasts as opposed to prior data.
We know that he's on leave from the job of chair of President Trump's Council of Economic Advisors. You and the team asked about input from the president. What did he tell you when it comes to not just whether or not always had an interview to be the FED chair, but if he's ever been asked by the President to actually take a specific policy action.
Well, he gave this the same answer that he has given other people, that he has not heard from the President since the day he was confirmed, when Trump gave him a call to congratulate him, but did not ask him to do anything particular. And he says since then he hasn't heard from mister Trump and that the President
has never asked him to take a particular position. On the other hand, you know, if mom told you a couple of weeks ago to clean up your room and she's standing there staring at you, you kind of get the message, and having to say it, I think Carol would agree totally.
You can alway, yes, yes, we did get some data. Well, you know, first I want to say in terms of jobs day that we've gotten so far.
You know, I've heard people say we're kind of flying blind without the monthly job's date or the government shut down and not getting government data on the US economy. Are we completely flying blind? Or do those private reports and the different reports, including ism that we got today still help form a fair picture of the US economy.
They give you a sort of pointless picture of the economy, you know, it's not sharply defined. But there's a lot of private data out there now, more and more all the time. Revellio Labs is a new one out there. They were out today saying sixty thousand jobs in the month of September. The economists surveyed by Bloomberg was fifty three thousand. So they're in that ballpark. ADP was negative thirty two thousand, so they're in a different ballpark. They're
playing in away game, different ballpark altogether. But in general, you get the idea that this is what's happening in the economy. And remember that whatever the first Jobs report number is, it's going to be revised and the FED knows that as well, so they have a lot of their own data sources that they use to try to figure out what's going on.
Well, you guys asked Governor Myron about this, whether or not the lack of data would affect the Fed's job, and he gave an interesting answer.
I thought.
He said, the FED uses that data, but they're not making decisions each and every day. What did you make of that?
Well, the market is always moving rates around because of the latest data or the latest thing that happens to a particular company, and the FED just every six weeks, and so they look at what all the data up to that point is. Plus, as I said, they have their own data. They get the ADP day, the raw ADDP data, and they manipulate it their own ways. Statistically, they don't do what ADP does with the Stanford Lab to come up with the numbers that we get from them.
So they have their own views on what we're seeing. And as I've noted before, right now, given all the problems we've had with data coming out of the pandemic, right the FED officials are leaning much more on their conversations with CEOs and businesses about what's happening to get an idea.
Hey, twenty seconds. One other important indicator. I can't believe we didn't get to it.
The Swift measure, as in Taylor Swift new album, what do we need to know?
Real quickly?
I found it had a good beat and I could dance to it, which is a joke I used before, and Carol got it. She's been around like me for a while. It looks like about fifty to fifty on the internet. Some people like it, some people don't like it. But it's the most streamed album ever, so it tells you that that's going to make some money, which is good for the economy. So we thank Taylor Swift.
And great for the tailor economy as well. Michael McKey, thank you so much.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from two to five e's during this listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
We want to stay on the jobs report the US economy. We want to see what she and her team at LinkedIn are seeing. Let's bring in Karen Kimbrose, She's chief economist at LinkedIn.
Out there in.
Study Vale California. Karen, you guys have such a great vantage point. You get lots of data on LinkedIn. Tell us what you are seeing on the platform when it comes to the US labor market.
Yeah, so great to be here. Thanks for having me. One of the things we're seeing right now is an incredibly sluggish labor market. Hiring is slow. In fact, by our own data, we're seeing hiring that's down last month three and a half percent on the month and nearly nine percent on the year, So we continue to see hiring being very anemic. I don't think we're looking at an economic recession, but we're definitely looking out a hiring recession,
if you will. Hiring is weak. One of the things that we're also seeing here, not just in hiring, but also just employer demand for taking on workers is just very, very slow, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that workers aren't leaving their jobs. We see that quits by our own measures, people aren't leaving their jobs by as much as they were in the past, but they're applying to more jobs and having less success.
So it's a much more competitive and tough labor market out there than it was before.
Can we go so far too to say employers are still hoarding workers as well, Karen, Can you guys get a feel on that as well. That's something that we've certainly seen out of the pandemic, when folks who are just you know, dying to get workers in and it was hard, it was a very tight labor for so they have been a little bit gun shy, if you will, in this environment to kind of let folks go.
Do you see signs of that?
I think so. We've been calling it job hugging. So on the one hand, we're not seeing professionals that really want to leave. They're not quitting, they're not rushing for the doors. And on the other side, the employers aren't yet sort of leveraging any kind of layoffs or reductions in force in the private sector, not to any great degree. When you look at the data that's out on jolts, or you look at the data that is, you know, in our own labor market data set here at LinkedIn,
we don't see elevated layoffs. So I do think employers are kind of holding on to the talent they have. They are definitely looking to refresh it where they can, but they're being very cautious about it.
You know, LinkedIn data only goes back so far, so maybe there isn't a time when we can compare this to Karen in recent years. But I'm wondering if what this looks like at as far as other parts of the economy or other parts of economic history, like, is there a historical parallel you could draw as to where we are in the cycle right now?
Well, for us, that's right, We typically like to go back to around twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen in our data to where we feel confident that we can say something. But when we look at the hiring rate right now being so slow, so much lower than even last year, twenty percent below the pre pandemic levels, I would say hiring is as low as it's been since like twenty thirteen right now. So it is a really, really kind of slumbering labor market with not a lot of movement.
And I think one of the factors is that we just don't have that churn. We're not seeing people quit, we're not seeing people laid off, which is a great thing. I'm glad about that, but it means that when people don't leave their job, there's no vacancy to backfill democratic things are very slow.
You know, I'm curious, Karen, demographic differences, industry difference is geographic differences, any color that you can give us on that.
Demographically speaking, we definitely see that hiring is extremely punishing for those entry level workers. So young grads who are coming out with a college degree, their hiring rate is twice as slow as everyone else is. So if I told you that on average entry level workers, maybe without a college degree, you're running a little bit slower than the average worker. Those entry level workers with a college degree are running far, far slower.
Where are people getting jobs and where are they not getting jobs?
So people are definitely getting jobs if they work in the skilled trades, you know, master electrician, plumber, pipe fitter, if you're working in commercial construction, because there's a lot of activity. You think about the plants that are being built, utilities and electrical grids that are being expanded, there's a lot of demand for construction work there. There's also a lot of hiring, believe or not going on in the financial sector. We're seeing it in education, We're seeing it
still in healthcare. So there are definitely pockets where people are getting hired but where we're not seeing as much momentum is sometimes in that middle space of either entry level workers in the white collar space, or if you think about some of the tech jobs are starting to rotate away from classic coding requirements and looking for different skills, and so that's causing a change in who's getting hired in tech companies.
So might say a Harvard trade school maybe makes sense then, after all, which certainly relates to a story that we talked about earlier in the week.
Karen, so great to get time with you. We look forward to maybe.
Next month or sooner, and maybe we'll actually have a monthly jobs data to also reave into the conversation. Karen Kimbro, chief economist at LinkedIn from Sunnyvale, California.
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As you know, no monthly jobs report. We have talked about that a lot. I will point out though, in the last Monthly Jobs report for the government. We did get that out last month showed hiring in the US healthcare sector looking increasingly shaky, raising a warning flag for the economy given its importance as a key driver of job growth over the last three years. Now, tim healthcare and social assistance companies added about forty seven thousand employees to payrolls.
That was in August, and that is the last month that we have data for according to the BLS look.
And we just spoke to Karen Kimbrow, a chief economist over at LinkedIn, and she said the same thing that they're seeing some strength when it comes to some areas, including jobs like construction jobs like electrician, master plumber, but also in the healthcare sector, still seeing hiring there exactly.
So let's get another view when it comes to healthcare jobs, specifically the nursing industry.
Back with us.
As doctor Yiman Abu zaid, she's co founder and CEO of Incredible Health. It's a career marketplace for connecting hospitals to nursing talents who she has a good view on all of this.
She is here in studio. Nice to have you here. How are you.
I'm doing well.
Thank you so much for having me.
Great to have you here.
We are without the latest monthly jobs report, so we're trying to kind of read the tea leaves and talk to lots of folks.
Talk to us about supply and demand for nurses in the US. What are you seeing.
We're still seeing a strong demand for healthcare in healthcare hiring, the number of jobs are in healthcare are increasing, but it's happening at a lower rate than it was before. Why, Like, most likely changes to the economy and the macroeconomic changes that we're facing as a country. So the other big reason is the Big Beautiful Bill does have Medicare and Medicaid reductions in it, which has slowed some a little bit of hiring in healthcare too.
A lot of healthcare jobs not necessarily our end, but healthcare jobs are occupied in the US by people who were not born in the US. I don't know the data that you have on that on your platform, but I'm curious if you're seeing any of the immigration changes that we've seen during the Trump administration during the first few months of this administration affect the workforce on your platform.
Yeah, so twenty percent of healthcare workers in the US were born out side of the US. So they do compose an important part of the healthcare workforce that's already here. To be honest, though, we're still with status quo with immigration. I mean honestly, since twenty sixteen, there's just been a huge slowdown in the number of healthcare workers entering the country as immigrants, and a lot of that just continues
with every administration. We saw it with Biden, we're now seeing it with Trump, and so that just highlights the importance of US needing to take care of our domestic healthcare workforce.
So what's the answer in your view? If it's been slowing down at this point for close to ten years, then what's the right way to approach this?
The best way to.
Approach is to keep increasing the number of healthcare workers in the US by encouraging more and more Americans to go into healthcare. We also have to remove the ball next in healthcare, including the nursing short the nursing school shortages, the technician school shortages, and increasing the training programs that are available for Americans.
So, okay, I've talked to some doctors about this, friends of mine, and they give me these numbers that are just mind bogglingly small, Like some specialties only graduate like three or four different residents per year in some schools, and like it's an incredibly small number. So that seems
to be structural. But as you move down from actual mds, is it easier to increase the number, because it doesn't seem like it's easy to increase the number of doctors in this country with the way the system is structured.
That's exactly right.
The way the system is currently structured, it is very difficult for us as a country to increase the number of healthcare workers that we desperately need. And healthcare still remains the biggest labor shortage in the country, with the demand continuing to increase from patients getting older, but not enough healthcare workers in the system.
Wait so cost, lack of places to educate folks, or lack of desire for people to want to do it.
I mean, I know folks who are doctors, and I think, Timy, you.
And I talk about this a lot, who don't necessarily love it.
And then there is the demographic.
Side where I know, I've had doctors in my life for years who have recently retired and we're scrambling to find new doctors. What is like the key metric that is our cost? Like, what is it that is really preventing folks from going into the profession.
It's really just the ballnecks we have in our system. There is a desire from Americans to become healthcare workers. It's a key way to change your socioeconomic status. But we have ballnecks on hiring, on educating and on training the healthcare workers.
Why do we have bottlenecks if we need them?
Yeah, I think honestly, there's a lot of experiences that we need to continue to improve. That's a lot where incredible health comes in. We're actually announcing our AI agents. So what we've done is really ushered in a new era of healthcare hiring that can be done with AI agents to really improve the experience of healthcare workers finding their dream jobs and pursuing their dream careers.
So that's on the hiring side. What about on the actual taking care of patient's side and technology? There is there a way to ease the burden on these healthcare professionals using technology.
Absolutely, healthcare is the one is one industry that is adopting AI technology that very fast, almost has as other industries which is unusual. Right in healthcare, we're seeing AI agents be used at the bedside, We're seeing AI scribes being used.
So there are wed we've had experience with. Have you had a doctor with a scribe, but I've had a doctor with an AI scribe, I'm not sure. But apart from that, I mean, and that's really helpful to doctors when they're doing their notes. They probably don't have to spend as much time doing that, and maybe they can spend more time with patients.
It's right.
But beyond that is the technology to a place where you can trust it to make decisions that are going to lead to better outcomes for patients.
Yeah, I believe that human connection still matters in healthcare, both the human connection the empathy piece. I don't think the jobs are necessarily going to be replaced with AI, but AI is being used to augment and support these healthcare workers who are generally an overworked and burnt out workforce.
Do you see eventually a day I'm going to just go there?
You know, as we continue to see like humanoids and robotics, but a combination of robots with some AI and somehow having a role.
When it comes to American healthcare.
Absolutely, I mean, we launched two AI agents, one named Gail and one name Lynd.
Gail is a.
Career partner for healthcare workers, a lifelong career partner that helps them generate resumes, that helps them with interview preparation, helps them do MALK interviews, and over ninety percent of nurses give it a thumbs up in terms of giving it having a great experience, as well as referring it to their friends. And then also Lynn is another AI agent we have which is a co pilot for the
hiring teams. And so Lynn is now interviewing healthcare workers and is selling them on the organization, discussing multiple jobs with them and really sharing what's amazing about specific employers.
Oh what I really mean, just got about thirty seconds the idea of an actual robot with AI and learning and in a hospital helping out.
I mean absolutely, I mean I think the future that's where we're all headed, not just in.
Healthcare, probably in other industries too.
No, not for journalists for broadcast. Good to catch up with you, Thank you so much, and great to have you in studio.
Thank you so much for having me.
Appreciate it.
Take care, Doctor Eymon Abbozage. She's kept founder, chief executive officer of Incredible Health.
Right here in studio.
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