GM to Join Tesla’s EV Charging Network - podcast episode cover

GM to Join Tesla’s EV Charging Network

Jun 09, 202336 min
--:--
--:--
Download Metacast podcast app
Listen to this episode in Metacast mobile app
Don't just listen to podcasts. Learn from them with transcripts, summaries, and chapters for every episode. Skim, search, and bookmark insights. Learn more

Episode description

 Bloomberg News Detroit Bureau Chief David Welch reports on General Motors adapting its electric vehicles to Tesla’s Superchargers, following Ford’s lead and all but ensuring it will become an industry standard in the US. Solidus VP of Regulatory Affairs Kathy Kraninger shares her thoughts on the SEC suing Coinbase and Binance. Dr. Ian Lustbader, Clinical Professor of Medicine at NYU Langone, discusses the health effects from the pollution caused by the Canadian wildfire. And we Drive to the Close with Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA.
Hosts: Carol Massar and Matt Miller. Producer: Paul Brennan.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebek from Bloomberg Radio.

Speaker 2

We've been talking a lot about Tesla today with good reason. Stocks still oh man, it's not one hundred percent anymore. It's ninety eight point three three percent the gains this year. Oh you know, should should we not talk about it?

Speaker 3

Well, it's still off, you well, off of its highs from twenty twenty one.

Speaker 2

That's a really good point some perspective. But it's been on a tear this year and it's on track for its record eleventh consecutive session of gains. So it's also a longtime favorite among retail traders. So let's get into it because there's been some new, some fundamental just following on the heels of GM saying it's going to tap into Tesla's EV charging network, following also after Ford did the same thing. So let's get to it with David Welsh,

Bloomberg News Detroit bureau chief. He is on the phone from Detroit. David Great to have you here with Matt and myself. So now it looks like, what three billion that Tesla stands to gain by twenty thirty because of these deals with Ford and GM. How big a nut is that When you look at the revenue picture for Tesla.

Speaker 4

At the end of the day, it's not huge revenue. I just think it's to me, it's interesting because you look over the past five years and they've made over five billion selling regulatory credits to the legacy automakers who need to meet clean air standards and don't have enough electric vehicles to do it. So Tesla just you know, three billion dollars by twenty thirty. You know, their revenue is over eighty billion a year now, They're probably much greater by then, So it's you know, it's a few

percentage points. It's not massive for a growth company like this, But to me, it just stands out that they keep making money. They making money off their competitors. It's great because they have such a lead in electrification that their competitors keep giving them ways to either money or direct or ways to make money to fund their new products while they're trying to catch up.

Speaker 3

The Tesla in the first place, So I have so many questions. I'm glad you could join us, David. Isn't this really cool in that it creates an industry standard? Or is it global or is it just the US?

Speaker 4

Right now, it's just us. We'll see what happens globally and the thing, I think it'll stretch to Canada as well. You know, there are Chinese automakers. I think they've got their own standard over there, but Tesla does sell evs in that market. I'm not totally sure what the confluence of a different standard is over there. But US market, it is very cool that we're getting one standard, because honestly, it was kind of dumb that we had more than one. Stupid.

Speaker 2

It's like Beta max versus VHS, like right, remember.

Speaker 4

The old Yeah, that's a classic business case, you know. And for that matter, the days when and I was I was an Apple geek in the early days, when you know, you started losing certain programs because it wasn't compatible with Windows or Microsoft products. Eventually, I think Steve Jobs caved and bridge the gap, but for a while, if you had Apple stuff, you couldn't use certain things.

Speaker 3

So speaking of caving, is Delantis next because I'm looking forward to Dodge is going to make a charger EV that is just going to be insane. Is that going to have a Tesla style charging port?

Speaker 4

I bet it will. I mean, I think everybody has to cave at this point. You're talking about the number one, two and three companies and EV sales in the US. I think Toyota will have to as well. And I think everyone is going to have to follow and do this. And so it's not they're talking about an adapter to begin with and then eventually just making a you know, putting a Tesla inlet port in the vehicle. It's not

a radical change for anybody. It's you know, it's not like they're you know, going from you know, a gasoline engine to a jet engine in the car. You know, this is this is a plug.

Speaker 2

But it creates, like you know, I said to we were talking earlier, you know, whether you're like Elon must or not. I mean, you can be kind of cookie. But having said that, is it just the possibility though, of creating a significant, even more revenue stream for this company. And we talked about three billion, but could it even be more in the future.

Speaker 4

Well, so the forecast I used from percent and other analysts had forecasts out there kind of some were more similar to less but directionally similar. And I think Sandlers Piper Sanders forecast is looking at not just for GM but basically everybody going this way. And I think now that doesn't happen, everybody's going to have to eventually well, I think connects shoot to drop here that could actually

reduce the amount of revenue growth Tesla gets have. This is I think all you know, this patchwork quilp of multiple EV charging players that are out there that GM, Ford and everybody else has partnerships with, they're going to have to adopt Tesla's standards unbelievable and a CS and and when that happens, then consumers will be able to use other networks that aren't Tesla's but using the Tesla chargeboard.

But you know there's an interim here and you know medium long term where Tesla's going to be making money off of this on they're dedicated chargers and they could they could for a very long time to come actually, because if you're driving around and your car can use a charge point charger anywhere you see a Tesla and that's open, you're going to take it and it's more reliable too.

Speaker 2

Yeah, exactly, good stuff, as always, the ever evolving world of Tesla and Elon Musk. David Welch, Detroit Buro, chief of Bloomberg News, on the phone from Detroit. Really appreciate it, David, have a.

Speaker 4

Good thanks, David.

Speaker 5

How do you?

Speaker 3

How are you?

Speaker 2

I mean we talked about this a little bit yesterday, right, and just what this move? You were you were kind of like blown away.

Speaker 3

Well, I think it's very cool because it creates I always applaud kind of universal standards, even when they're not necessarily the best choice. For example, VHS, probably the technology wasn't as good as beta. For those of you old enough to remember what beta was.

Speaker 2

Pretty incredible, Yeah, or there was three quarter. Remember there's beta and time.

Speaker 3

I remember all of them. But it doesn't matter. The point is when you get a universal standard, then the industry grows much faster. So for me, that's the exciting point about this. You know, we're already expecting eighteen percent growth, near to a fifth of all car sales globally this year are going to be EV's So this is just going to accelerate that transition, which is exciting and also in some ways of concern, right because our grid maybe can't handle it if we had that many evs.

Speaker 2

Well, we found that yesterday, right, all the conversations we had about the energy markets and you know how old our grid is not a news story everybody, but it just seems like we talk about it, talk about the importance of infrastructure, you know, investing, whether it's energy or whether it's like ev you know, charging areas, and we just kind of forget to do it. And so in this case you've got a private sector company doing it.

Speaker 3

I'm very pumped also about the next generation of evs because I think it'll be the first generation of evs from other automakers that are really from bottom up designed to be electric vehicles. So no longer just ICEE E vehicles that the company put a battery. ICEE an internal combustion engine, got it. So no longer just gas burning vehicles that used to have an engine that may just

put a battery in. So they're designed, purpose built to be EV's and they're going to be not only much better in terms of everything from range to handling to performance.

Speaker 2

Which is what the what Tesla is, right, Yeah, for sure, but they're also.

Speaker 3

Going to be much more affordable, which is what I'm looking forward to, because you know, you go out there in the market right now crazy and you see vehicles like the BMW I X is really cool, but it's ninety thousand dollars to start. Now you're starting to see real competition. I'm driving right now a Nissan Ariyah I think it's called a r I y am test driving it, and it's unbelievably cool. It's elegant in its design, it's fast, it handles well, it's fun to drive, and it's affordable.

It's like starts at forty five grand or so.

Speaker 2

So kind of like the idea of when Prius was first you know, created as a hybrid, was it thought about as from the ground up?

Speaker 1

Uh?

Speaker 3

Well, that was I'm sure thought about as a Yeah, a ground up hybrid vehicle for sure, because if you look at and Teslas, you're right, we're ground up, designed to be ev EVS after the roadster, because remember the roadster they first used was actually a I think a Lotus or an Opal body and they put a battery in it.

Speaker 2

This is why we love having you around. You kind of know a few things I know if.

Speaker 3

You you know your you know a few things too.

Speaker 2

No, but I'm with you. I'm looking at the prices on things and I'm like, what happened? Am my two spans? I mean, this is how do you make this a mass market car? If we're supposed to ramp up to hit certain nut coming? All right, I'm going to hold my breath and I can't wait.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

We know a lot of news on crypto this week, To say the least, Matt us really feel like it's being thrown into deeper array. You had also Binance today, Banking partners getting ready to rescind support liquidity drawing up traders withdrawing tokens from the platform as regulators are clamping down on the company and its owner. So it's been a week full of some really tough news for the crypto universe.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 3

Absolutely. The Coinbase move probably felt more by US investors, obviously because it's publicly traded here, But ban is the big cat in this industry, and if it starts to lose I guess scale, that's a problem for advancement in this in crypto.

Speaker 2

It does wonder about kind of the latest stress points and the viability of the US crypto industry industry. So let's get into it with solidus Labs Vice President of Regulatory Affairs Kathy Kreninger, also former director of the Consumer Protection Financial Bureau, joining us via zoom from Washington, d C. Once again, sold us is a crypto market surveillance and risk monitoring platform. Just for those of you not in the know. Kathy, good to have you back with us.

Your gut take on the news this week and what it means for the US crypto industry.

Speaker 6

Well, you said it here too.

Speaker 5

It is quite a week when you thought the news couldn't get any bigger. We find ourselves continually on a roller coaster with this industry and unfortunately, particularly in the US. Look I said it before, agencies should go after bad actors.

Speaker 6

That's exactly what you want to see happen. So there are certainly some.

Speaker 5

Allegations that finance needs to address and having that out in the open, frankly gives them the opportunity to do that.

Speaker 6

No surprise.

Speaker 5

The SEC has been engaging in investigations into a number of platforms and operators in the crypto space now for quite some time. So having the cases out there and in the open matters the other side, as you mentioned, with the coinbase, they're two very different cases.

Speaker 3

So what let's focus in on Coinbase in terms of what they can do well. Really, the similarity I think between the two is compliance is almost impossible for crypto businesses, or that's what they tell us. Is that true? You know, because we hear Gensler say all we want you to do is come into compliance, and these crypto businesses say, there's no way for us to do that. We've applied and they rejected us.

Speaker 5

There are some real challenges here around the definitions and the requirements.

Speaker 6

Definitely so.

Speaker 5

And actually a great hearing on Tuesday that included a coin based witness, as Sherman Thompson of the House Agriculture Committee noted, highly unusual to have a witness before the committee who's now the subject of an enforcement action and litigation by an agency, but that that was par for the course and why the hearing was so important, and the legislation was so important, So it is challenging, no doubt.

There are very few crypto businesses or special purpose registrations that have gone through that are related to crypto and part of that has to do with two, you know, the business that they are engaged in and the fundamental disclosures requirements and registration nuts and bolts that the SEC requires that they just simply can not actually comply with. Some of it also is related to what the nature of these assets are and having that be clear in law.

Point Base is a publicly traded company. They go through a rigorous process that they have outlined repeatedly around their assessment of which assets are or are not securities, and it is not their intention to list securities, as many of the platforms say, so why they would be subject to registration is something that again this case now is going to really be at the heart of the matter of are these assets securities and why and the sec actually you know, asserting that and proving that.

Speaker 3

What's your take? By the way, I mean, people always talk about the Howie test, and there are some cases in which it's very clear, and I think Gary Gensler has set himself there some cases in which it's you know, bitcoin for example, is is not a security. But in a lot of these instances you can debate whether it's a security or a commodity.

Speaker 6

You definitely can.

Speaker 5

I mean it comes down to again whether whether there is an aspect of decentralization in terms of whether this is you know that that group of people that you expect to benefit from and reap the rewards of their work, uh and their you know, their efforts.

Speaker 6

So that is is one prong of the analysis.

Speaker 5

Certainly under under the Howie test that that gets some attention.

Speaker 4

Uh.

Speaker 5

And and there are certainly things like like bitgoin that you would argue is decentralized. I think there is some real question too over over what ownership aspect there really is and what anyone actually owns and so the the other dynamic here in terms of what securities law requires. That takes me back to the first question you asked and what is important here. It is important for issuers and listeners to actually disclose what the asset does.

Speaker 6

What it's intended to do, now it's used, who is behind it.

Speaker 5

There are some classic things that again good actors in crypto claim they are already doing and meeting so in some respects meeting the spirit of that important information and getting it to investors, but all the mechanics of registration are things that they simply cannot actually meet.

Speaker 2

So, Kathy, you know, we had a conversation Matt and I yesterday with former SEC chair j Clayton and Dean moorehead also who's very involved in the crypto space, and I do wonder one of the points that came up is that you do already see sovereign you know, being issued based on blockchain technology around the world, and I do wonder, you know, as we think about the legitimacy of crypto going forward, has kind of the train left the station, and so that if the US is not

on board in terms of figuring out the regulatory framework along with other folks in the world, that they will be ultimately left behind. Can we make that conclusion if they're not in if the US isn't involved US.

Speaker 6

Regulators, Look, I agree with that in part.

Speaker 5

I would say the US markets are such that, you know, there will always be an interest by companies serve US markets, and that will come back around. I think where it really does concern me is the national security dynamics.

Speaker 6

We have benefited from decades and even.

Speaker 5

I suppose more than a century of US innovation setting the standard for how the globe operates. We built the financial systems of the world, so there is a national security benefit to that, the dollar being you know, basically the world's currency, that we benefited from that, and the notion that we would be absent as the next financial system is really being built and that infrastructure is being built.

That's where we're really I think losing that long term competitive advantage and our place in the world's economy and then frankly in the global dynamics even politically speaking, and from a stability standpoint, in a national security standpoint, So that does concern me greatly and I think is hugely

unfortunate if we if we just concede. The other thing I would note that is to different this year is really Chair Gensler's statement and attitude when you get to you know, what, what is there room for in this new economy and his stance that the only digital currencies that are necessary are the ones that already exist and are issued by governments. You know, that really does undermine the potential and opportunity that's here, but some of it

gets to terminology too. I've not really believed that the future of a lot of the tokenization is truly in currency, you know, and really replacing sovereign currencies. But there is I think a lot with the infrastructure that having you know, stable coins and certainly having digital assets is hugely beneficial.

Speaker 3

Is there a do you think there's a consensus feeling in Congress about which way we need to go in terms of either supporting it or killing it.

Speaker 5

I continue to believe that on both sides of the aisle there's a lot of interest in setting this up the right way and understanding the potential and having the conversation.

Speaker 6

A lot of concern frankly about.

Speaker 5

The scams and fraud and dynamics around FTX.

Speaker 6

That's completely legitimate.

Speaker 5

I mean, look, whenever any new technology comes into play, there are going to be those challenges and that's I think hugely unfortunate and where the industry needs to step up calling out the bad actors, where agencies should focus their energy going after them, but where there are not clear rules that good actors can follow. That's really where you see the flight that we are. Again, certainly people are asserting leaving the US markets, and we're seeing some of that itself.

Speaker 6

All right, we got to run.

Speaker 2

Hey, Kathy, thank you, appreciate you waiting weighing in on all of this. Kathy Kreninger, vice president of Regulatory Affairs at Solidus Labs, former director of the Consumer Protection Financial Bureau, joining us on Zoom from Washington, DC. Matt, did you see the store about robin hood removing three jokers from its crypto trading platform?

Speaker 3

You know, so, I think anyone's going to be doing that if they've been defined as a security by the SEC.

Speaker 2

You got to get rid of them, right, They've got to be nervous.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business app and YouTube. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

Got to love them. We've got a guest coming on, and we've got a question ahead of them even joining us.

Speaker 3

A listener writes in with a question before we have the guests. That's brilliant. That's a popular is the should always do that. It makes our lives so much easier.

Speaker 2

Body listening because please do this, do this anyway, let's get right to it. Doctor Ian las Baders with US, clinical professor of Medicine at NYU Lango and on Zoom in.

Speaker 3

New York City.

Speaker 2

Ian, good to have you back here in joining Matt and me on this Friday. I hope you're doing well. What were the what's the week been like you? Based on the air quality and what we had to deal with this week.

Speaker 7

You know, I think everyone's been concerned about the wildfires in Canada. Hard to believe seven or eight hundred miles away. I've been a native New Yorker for all my life. I've never seen fires in Canada. Cause the air pollution that we saw over the last three days shut to northeast and we've had a lot of calls from patients, patients with COPD and emphysema. It's been a real challenge.

We've had to raise people's medications and hailers. And I think there's also this anxiety on top of COVID anxiety and on top of all sorts of anxiety that they're

vulnerable there's really no safe place to go. There's still some indoor air pollution, and going out on the street there's a lot of coughing that acrid smell, and so there are real concerns and also not only short term but long term concerns because smoke has you know, hundreds of chemicals, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, particle size, large particles, small particles really all smoke, but especially wood, organic chemicals things I tell you in in xylene, sulfur dioxide, and

some of these over a long period of time can have you know, risks as you know, potential cancer risks. So it's been a problem for the patients and for the doctors.

Speaker 3

So this leads well into the question that our viewer, our listener has wondering about the everyday health effects of pollution from cars and buildings. You know, if you're walking around New York City, you're gonna smell a lot of weed. There's smoke everywhere. What can we do if this listener wants to know if we're living in the city or near the city to protect ourselves, is it just masks, air filters, Is there anything else?

Speaker 7

Well, certainly, you know the N ninety five masks, certainly for people with lung disease, or if you can get one, is very helpful. Right, So some of these particles, you've got large particles that generally the cilia in the nose and the nosehairs and sinuses can filter out some particles. The lung has these little hair cells called cilia. But for the very fine particles we're talking, you know, under a micron, you know, in size, those can go deep in the lungs and cause a lot of problems. So

the N ninety five masks. If you're outside during a day like over the past few days, doing it, an air filter or air purifier in in your apartment or in your office is very smart. Air conditioning that doesn't draw outside air. You're not doing anything helpful if you're just sucking outside air and you just have the air conditioner filter. But inside air, if it's refiltered, would be

helpful in general. You know, you're right. The city has a lot of particular material from cars, building smokestacks, so the air z always dirtier in a city than in the suburbs. Walking around the streets, you know, don't go behind a bus. A lot of the buses are electric now the subways, so the subway tracks cause a lot of particulate material. If you look at the lungs the autopsy of people who live in the city, they look much worse all these dark particles compared to the suburbs.

Living in the city, you have intrinsically higher risk. You can wear a mask outside, it's hard for most people to do that. That probably would help a bit, and use an air filter and air pure fire in your office and in your home.

Speaker 2

I have to say, you know, I've continued wearing a mask even post COVID, just especially in and around the subway because I just, I don't know, I just don't even wear one during COVID, although I understand that their health benefits, and it may not have been the smartest move on my part.

Speaker 3

I just don't like to wear a mask, you know.

Speaker 2

I don't know, go ahead, Ian, Yeah.

Speaker 7

No, people have psychologic issues and it is hard to wear for long periods of time. You know, by and large, the air quality in New York is not terrible.

Speaker 4

They great.

Speaker 7

It really is sort of low, medium and high under fifty fifty to one hundred and over one hundred, so it was well over one hundred during the bad days, and I would say for that, wear a mask. I wore a mask when I left the office, you know, an N ninety five. Most times in the city the air quality is not that bad because of the changes, but certainly if you're near a smoky area or if you have lung problems, I would play it safe. And even getting a surgical mask and help cloth masks are useless.

Bandana is that kind of thing. They didn't help with COVID the you know, viral particles right through those. But investing in a good either respirat or mask RUN ninety five, who knows in the future what other problems there may be. New York was not really prepared for this, right you know, we've ever seen it, and I think we need to

get prepared for other issues. You know, they're homeless on the street, and we have a lot of people who are vulnerable, and we need to plan for the future, whether it's storms or whether it's air issues.

Speaker 2

Hey, doctor Lespitter, One thing I did want to ask you, what are the consequences for folks that, you know, even if they're healthy in their lungs, just a few days of breathing in the air this week, or if we continue to have you know, climate related or other you know, fires and winds that are going to affect us O. We have fine, we have more days like this in New York City. What do we need to be concerned about the long term impact?

Speaker 7

Well, you know, we don't really know. Look, any smoke exposure has some risk, and if you have lung disease or you've had a past history of smoking, you're higher risk. We do speak to your pulmonologist or general internist. We do screen with cat scans. By and large temporary smoke exposure we can get over so most healthy people, the lungs can cleanse themselves to a degree particles can be

put out. But for prolonged exposure or if you have industrial exposure, higher risk of lung cancer, and you do need to touch base with your pulmonary specialist. Certainly, people who have inhalers sometimes we increase the dose of those. I would say, try and get out of the city and get some clean air as much as you can to balance out your overall exposure. Go to the beach, get some clean air. Obviously in the winter that's harder to do, but I would definitely try and leave the city.

Speaker 2

Any I have a really important question. Is there any help for Matt Miller?

Speaker 3

I just want to know, Ian, it's a psychological thing. That's not your specialty.

Speaker 7

Right, that's great. I love his attitude.

Speaker 4

It's key.

Speaker 7

Next time we should speak about a new vitamin study that's out that talks about vitamins and dementia multivitamins. There's some conflicting data about that, but maybe we can talk about that another time. I think it's fascinating. For a long time we really said multivitamins don't help. There's a little bit of evidence maybe they do.

Speaker 2

That's fascinat Well, that's what we call a deep tease. And you did it. Well you're going to be back, I know at a future date. Doctor Ian las Bader, Clinical Professor of Medicine at NYU Langoing Center here in New York City.

Speaker 6

A journal Now about you?

Speaker 3

Let me drive?

Speaker 4

Oh no, no, no, no, who's going to drive?

Speaker 3

Hory please, I'll do the gravels.

Speaker 2

I want to drive.

Speaker 6

It's a good question.

Speaker 1

Try this is the drive to the Globe.

Speaker 6

Dot com comfing Well Bryer around shot it.

Speaker 1

On on Bloemberg Radio.

Speaker 2

All Right, everybody, We've got just under eighteen minutes left in today's trading session, getting ready to wrap up the Friday trade as well as the week. Carol Master, along with Matt Miller, live in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio on YouTube in Bloomberg Originals. I want to get right to our guests because I'm curious, Matt, what Sam Stobell has to say about that twenty percent move off of that October twenty twenty two low on the S and

P five hundred. Sam, of course, is chief investment strategist at CFRA on Zoom in New York City, somebody you and I have been talking to for years. Sam, it is in a couple of decades now, and I think it's.

Speaker 3

A good thing.

Speaker 2

It means we've all seen a lot of cycles. What do you make of this cycle and this move off the bottom for the S and P five hundred specifically, let's start there.

Speaker 4

Sure.

Speaker 8

Well, Hey, Carol, good to talk to you again, Matt, always good to talk to you, especially with the new beard. But yeah, I think that we registered that twenty percent advance, and now obviously people are wondering will the market be like the messenger from Marathon who then stumbles and dies shortly after announcing the news, or will it have legs

to run further? And I think history basically tells us that we have further to go, and that following twenty percent advances off of prior bear market lows, we typically advance about fourteen and a half percent, and do so over a five month period. So I would advise not selling too quickly into this rally, at least if you are a longer term investor, because chances are we have a ways to go.

Speaker 4

Hang on.

Speaker 3

So I have a sam stoveall for those listening who don't know, has like more data than the Bloomberg. So when we hear about bear market rallies, and I've seen a number myself in the past couple of decades, but how often do you see a bear market rally that gets up to a more than twenty percent gain from the bottom and then it fizzles out?

Speaker 8

Well, if you're looking at the Nasdaq, because it's much more volatile than the S and P. We've had eight bear markets since the Nasdaq one hundred was created in the late nineteen eighties, and a full half of them experienced what I call bogus bottoms or fake outs where the index was up by twenty percent only to turn around and set an even lower low for the S

and P five hundred. However, we have only had three such fake outs, and all three of them were confined to the two mega meltdowns of two thousand and two through two, as well as seven through nine. This bear market I regard as a garden variety bear market, meaning less than forty percent decline, and we have never had a bogus bottom occur within a garden variety bullmarket.

Speaker 3

Nice. Yeah, Because I was reading Savita s. A Vermani and from Bank America, she said ninety two percent of the time on the S and P five hundred, after you get to a twenty percent rally from the bottom, you have gains twelve months later. So in other words, it's not a fake out exactly.

Speaker 8

And actually the only thing that I think investors are sort of worried that there could be some fake out is why is it that this time around small caps are not leading the way as they have done five or six of the prior times, going back to nineteen eighty for the Russell two thousand. This time around we're up only about eleven percent versus the twenty one percent for the S and P five hundred. So yeah, investors are sort of scratching their heads. What's different this time?

Speaker 2

Well, what's different maybe this time? And there's another story on the Bloomberg talking about the disconnect between stocks and bonds, suggesting a twenty percent downside risk for equities if bonds are right in pricing inflation volatilities. According to some modeling by JP Morgan Chase and Company strategists, if you look at kind of the bond market trade in terms of where I guess yield as saying, and there are concerns about inflation volatility if that continues to be persistent, Sam,

is it potentially different time around? We've just come off several days of Bloomberg invest you know, top voices like yourself in the investment community talking about the markets and saying this is unusual times. We're coming off on precedent amount of money that was pumped into the economy because the global economy, because of the pandemic. We're not really quite sure how it plays out.

Speaker 8

Right. Well, the good news is last Monday I published a report called Hike, Skip and a Jump, And what it showed was that going back to the beginning of when the FED actually announced FED Fund changes, prior to that they announced only discount rate changes, that whenever we did have that skip in the subsequent eight weeks, meaning between those two FOMC meetings, the market was up eighty eight percent of the time, rising about three point six

percent on average. So the good news is that if the FED does indeed skip, as FED Fund's futures are pointing to, that would be a positive sign. However, if the FED basically either continues to raise or tells us that no, we're nowhere near being done, then you know, they could end up not only strangling this new bull market, but could throw the economy into something much deeper than the mild recession currently priced in.

Speaker 3

Sam, I'm interested to know how you compare and contrast this inflationary environment and the FED hikes that we've seen with that of the seventies and eighties. You know, it seems Powell doesn't want to be in Arthur Burns. Are there parallels?

Speaker 8

Well, certainly, I think by hearing Arthur I mean Arthur Powell, hearing Jerome Powell say that he does not want to repeat the mistakes of the nineteen seventies that that would imply that they are going to be raising rates longer. But at the same time, if you take a look at the inflation numbers, we're going to be getting CPI soon next week, we're going to be EPI. Both of them continue to show a stare step down, and we're finding that the Fed funds rate is now well above

both of those year on year changes. So that typically is what happens close to the end of a rate tightening cycle. And again I point to what happens after the Fed stops raising rate. Historically they don't cut rates for another nine months. So my belief is they're not going to be cutting rates until the second quarter of

next year. But still the market is up thirteen percent on average, with all sizes, styles, sectors, and ninety nine percent of sub industries in positive territory over that timeframe.

Speaker 2

So really quickly thirty seconds though, would you like to see a more broadening out though of the market trade, Well, you.

Speaker 8

Could say that it is fairly broad already because more than fifty percent of the stocks in the S and P five hundred are positive year to date, forty seven percent of them are above the markets, the S and P five hundred equal weight performance and a majority of certainly the high growth areas are showing percentages above fifty. But even a group like real estate has forty three percent of its components this positive character.

Speaker 2

If year, okay, got leave on that.

Speaker 6

Now love the data points.

Speaker 2

You're right, it doesn't win the Bloomberg.

Speaker 4

I love it.

Speaker 5

I love it.

Speaker 3

Thank you so much. Sam.

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. I'll available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from three to six Easterning on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg. Jurmalone

Transcript source: Provided by creator in RSS feed: download file
For the best experience, listen in Metacast app for iOS or Android