This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing you the latest news from the worlds of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, all partnising the power of Business Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and analyst in more than one hundred and twenty countries. You can download Bloomberg Business Week at iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg
dot Com. You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch
us on YouTube. Searched Bloomberg Clobal News well. Last month, Bloomberg News reported that the fallout from the nursing shortage that's plaguing US hospitals it got so bad that six of the nurses at just one Pennsylvania facility in the western part of the state left last year, and twenty two of those remaining stage day five day walkout that halted elective surgery twenty excuse me, so a significant number of nurses there. Things aren't likely to get better anytime
soon either. The US forecast and annual average of one thousand five hundred openings for registered nurses through twenty We've got a great voice on all of this. Dr mont Abusaide is the co founder and CEO of Incredible Health. It's a marketplace for connecting hospitals to nursing talent. She joins us once again on the phone, this time from Austin. Dr Abuzaide, how are you. I'm doing well. Thank you so much for having me. Yeah, it's good to have
you back with us. I just want to get an update before you get into all the great data that you guys have on what nursing staffing challenges are looking like throughout the country, because you've just got a great view on that data. Yeah, absolutely so. Overall it is continuing to look look very challenging across the board. You know, our population, the US population is aging. That's clearly more demand on the healthcare system, and he supplied workers have
not kept up with that demand. Um, we're seeing increasing turnover among nurses across the country. The average turnover right now is about twenty one and a half the set, whereas before the pandemic it was at seventeen percent. And Dr I want to get into some of the data that you sent over to US so incredible health. He served twelve GENC nurses. You found that SEV pointed to staffing shortages as their main concern in entering the field.
Something you could walk us through that a little bit, because when staffing shortages, you know, present an opportunity to these new nurses trying to enter the field. Yeah. Absolutely, So, you know, new UH nursing schools are seeing higher than ever applications and are also um graduating more more nurses than ever before in the history of the US. However, despite that activity, it's still it's still not meeting the
needs of the staffing needs of the health system. UM. You know, the the new nurses when they are graduating, they're really looking at two areas. Primarily, number one is like how well is this unit staff. The reason they care about that is because they don't want to be overworked. And two and the second reason is because they want to make sure that they're going to be well trained
by experienced nurses. UM. On the job training is an area that new grad nurses and gen Z nurses focus on a lot because the termans you know, how successful they are in the early parts of their clear Okay, so it sounds like what you're saying is that you know, for many of these new nurses they're looking at the landscape right now and saying this is a recipe for burnout.
Exactly seventy already feel report feeling overloaded and overwhelmed um during their on boarding process as they're joining a new employer and uh, and they're really exciting inefficient training systems
and not having enough experienced nurses to train them. I'm wondering dr opposite if we're going to see you know, I shared these statistics early on in our in our conversation, just the delta between open positions and available nurses given what you know at Incredible Health, is it possible for the US to actually fill that annual average of onod and five hundred openings for registered nurses that is set to go through right now. It is not actually possible.
There are not enough nurses to fill fulfill those roles. We know that there are many helpeses because staring um hire muses from abroad. Uh. And we know that there's going to be continuing increases of of of nursing schools needing to graduate more and more nurses. So what's the way to fix this. So I don't enough. So what's the way to fix this. There's a couple of ways that we need. A couple of areas where we need
to focus. Number one is UH continuing to invest in the training of nurses, particularly after nursing school so UH expanding the training programs that are available for nurses. Are still very few hospitals, not enough hospitals in this country that are willing to train UH nurses into different specialty areas. We also need to continue to increase the capacity of nursing schools so they can train more nurses as well.
And I'm curious. It stuck out to me that you survey gen Z nurses in particular, and I mean, is this uniquely a problem among gen Z nurses or would you suspect that it's all age categories. It's happening in all age categories. But the reason we really focused in on the gen Z nurses because they are the next
generation of nurses that's entering the workforce right now. The nursing workforce in the US comprises of five different generations, and so what's going on with this This this newest one is critical to ensuring the success of the future of the US nurse workforce. Um. The other thing that we the other thing, the reason we focus on it is we knew that this this cohort has unique challenges and so we really these products and features that support them.
You know, they have their one third of the employers on the Incredible Health platform are using the platform to hire in your graduate nurses. We've on job matching for them as well as career coaching that's needed for them. Uh, it's always to improve their experience as they're entering the workforce. Dr man Abuse, the co founder and CEO of Incredible Health, joining us on the phone from Austin, Texas. Really appreciate
your time once again, Dr Abuse. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Measure and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Think back to November, but I didn't selected. Jennet Yellen is the first female Treasury Secretary. It was considered a master stroke. The thinking was that her impeccable economic credentials would allow her to stay above
the fray. Instead, the former chair of the Fed now finds herself in the middle of a brawl in Washington, where the latest worry is that the Fed's quest attainment inflation will plunge the country into a recession, pushing up unemployment from the historic lows achieved under yelling those words from Selea Mosen, senior Washington correspondent for Bloomberg News. She joins us on the phone from Washington, d C. And that's part of a story in the current issue of
Bloomberg business Week. Also joining us as Joel Webber, the editor of Bloomberg Business Week. He's with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Joel, I think to myself after reading this piece, poor Jennet Yellen, Poor Jenney Yellen. I guess that could have been the headline for the story. Uh. And and you're right. And the thing that has been amazing to watch here has been inflation. Just take everyone by surprise, not only on Wall Street, but all so
in Washington. And here you have Janet Yellen, who's absolutely storied, impeccable resume from her time at the FED, gets tapped by Biden to take over Treasury, and then all of a sudden inflation starts, um, you know, slapping Biden on both cheeks back and forth for for months on end. And uh, you know, in that moment um Yellen took the Biden White House by surprise and said she was
wrong about the path that inflation would take. And that ends up being this great little insight into the Biden White House d c UH policy in general, and and the you know, just the the troublesome foe that inflation is um but sle for you, what did it reveal, you know, to me, it showed that it's important to have a Treasury Secretary who has the trust at a personal relationship and the ear of the President of the
of the United States. The fact that, as I wrote in the story, that Chief Is asked Ron Plaine from the White House didn't invite Secretary Yellen two key meetings where they were going to discuss how to message and talk about the economy, they didn't invite her just says that she is not seen as someone who needs to be involved in every step of the way. And you know, really I was talking to some executives last week after
the story came out. They were saying that Yellen just needs to call up President Biden say I need to be in every single meeting and we you and I need to talk one on one about what's really happening in the economy, because maybe Biden is not getting the bad news. And how I mean compared this to past administrations and the relationship that the president typically has with
the Treasury secretary. How unusual is it that I mean, people are saying that conversation even needs to happen, that Yellen isn't being invited to these key meetings and needs to speak up. You know, this is part of the jockeying when you're at the highest levels of power. There are always going to be people inside the White House
who want to have the ear of the president. We thought this very clearly play out in the Trump administration, and it's just up to you know, if you are a Captinet officer, you have been confirmed by the Senate and you go to down there to Capital Hill for those grillings over your work, then it is your job to say, hey, I am going to be in charge. So who has President Biden deferred to? Who is the
administration deferred to? Instead of the traditional role of the Treasury Secretary going out in front of the media and facing the media, who's doing that? Now? What we're seeing is that the White House is National Economic Director Brian Deaf, who is actually not an economist. He's a lawyer by training. He is the one who is talking the most about the economy publicly, and he seems to be running a
lot of the meetings and being the point man. Now in part, that is his job, that that role was created under the Clinton administration to kind of have an inter agency process of hey, everyone, all the stakeholders of various parts of the economy, how we can all work to other. But somehow it seems like Yellin's views, you know, she has this sterling reputation, uh, and she is not
being listened to. It is his job, Brian d'ss job, and Ron Clean the chief of staff job, to say, let's make sure we are listening to this top shelf economists that we tapped, and so how is that conversation going to go from here? So, because obviously it shows that there's a little bit of a riff between Treasury and the White House. How much patience does Jennet you don't even have to stick around in government, you know, I think a lot of it is going to come
down to voters. We're going to hear from them in November a referendum on the democratic economic policy, and if it comes out as you know what, we expect a
pretty big wipeout for Democrats. That is the natural point at which a president and his captain officers consider, you know, for the president's side, do I need to rebuild any of my team's economic or national security or foreign policy team, And for Janet Allen to think, well, look, if I'm not useful in this administration, then do I need to stay a select One of the most interesting parts of this story, and it's full of really great tidbits, encourage
everybody to check it out, is the reporting that you did around Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and her thoughts on sanctions against Russia or lack thereof. Um talk to us
about what you found. Yeah, that was really interesting. It turns out that there was a momentous to day February six, two days after Putin invaded and the G seven the European Union, everyone had, you know, done shuttle diplomacy at the highest levels of power, eighteen hour work days and decided, okay, we can all get together and levy extremely punishing sanctions that will shock Vladimir Putin. Uh In What they thought could be just a seventy two hour operation to take
down Kiev in Ukraine. And it was Saturday morning, and Jenny Allen said to the President in a in a situation room meeting that I'm not ready for this. And it took a foreign prime minister, Italy's Mario Joggy to bring her on board. And what that showed us was that maybe she's not nimble enough for the type of work that needs to be done in an administration compared to a central bank. That's a really interesting insight, you know.
The other one, Celia, that it just made me kind of wonder about, was like, you know, at the beginning of the Biden presidency, uh, you know, one of the foremost things that yean and champion was this idea of a new global tax sort of architecture, and it's been hinted at that that might be in jeopardy. What's the latest on that front since that was so near and dear to her, You know, it really depends on who
you ask. Um. I've heard from some people that Poland is the holdout in Europe and with one no vote, the whole thing can be vetoed, meaning that you does not sign up on this your landmark deal. But it seems like they're the concessions that they want are manageable. But look, even if Janet Yellen wins a hundred and forty countries uh, you know, consensus to sign on to this deal, she still has to get support from Congress,
and she doesn't have deep ties over there. Yeah. What I found so interesting about this is, I mean the political aspect of this too, and to what extent voters actually care about something like this, Sleia, just in the last thirty seconds we have with you, No, this is not a kitchen table issue. They don't care about corporate max rate, especially when they see gas prices and the
price of burger meat going up sky high. Yeah. So, as far as Democrats in November, no matter what she does on that front, it's not necessarily going to be a win, at least politically for Democrats. Again, just a fantastic piece written by Selea Mosen and team Janet Yellen is getting trapped in the blame game over inflation. Selea is senior Washington correspondent for Bloomberg News. Be sure to check out this story. It's featured in the current issue
of Business Week magazine. It's available on newsstands, on the Bloomberg term Mental and at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week. Our thanks also to Joe Weber. He is the editor of Bloomberg Business Week. You heard him live here from the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studios. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on
Bloomberg Radio. In an interview earlier today with Bloomberg News Editor in chief John mcclethwaite at the Quitar Economic Forum, Tesla's Elon Musk struck a sober tone as he forecast a probable recession in the US and left doubts about his commitment to a forty four billion dollar takeover of Twitter. Here's an excerpt of that discussion. With respect to the Twitter transaction, There's a limit to what I can say
publicly given that is um somewhat of a sensitive matter. Um. So I would like to be measured in my responses here, um, such as not to generate incremental lawsuits. Um mhm un. That seems to be a risk. You sometimes managed to overcome, Yes, deposition minimization is I think important? Have you have, have Twitter given you enough information? Well, there are still, um
a few unresolved matters. You've You've probably read about the question as to whether the number of fake and spam users on the system is less than five percent as Twitter claims, which I think is probably not most people's experience on we're using Twitter. Um So we're still awaiting resolution on that matter. Um. And that that is a very significant matter. Um So we're awaiting resolution on that. And then of course there is the question of will
the dead portion of the round come together? And then will the share holders mode in favor? So I think those are the three things that um standard the you know, that needs to be resolved before the transaction can complete. What about the general state of the economy? Does that weigh on you when you think about this? I mean you just described it. You have a super bad feeling about the economy. Are you still in that position? I
just said you earlier. Joe Biden has just come out and said that a recession in America is not inevitable. How do you feel about the economy. Well, I think a recession is inevitable at some point. As to whether there is a reception in the near term. Um, I think that is more likely than not. Certainly, isn't. It's not a certainty, but it appears more likelier than that. What do you think? I'm I'm I'm with you. I
agree with you. I think it's more likely. Can I ask you one a particular thing to do with the Twitter bid, which is you know you are one of the biggest and fastest growing investors in China Tesla. You've talked about it being a third of your sales going forward. You're not buying Twitter the kind of public forum for free speech. The Chinese historically don't tend to be very enthusiastic about free speech. Are you worried about whether you
can keep those two particular horses running? Is buying Twitter going to get you in trouble with the Chinese? Well? Twitter does not operate in China, so um. And I think China does not attempt to interview interfere with the free speech of the of the press in the US. As far as I know, Accession, you're not under pressure to Elbert to uh from China. So I think there's UM. I don't think it's gonna really you And in terms generally of that issue of freedom, of speech and Twitter.
You've talked about Twitter being making it even freer and letting more people onto it. Um, is there a limit at all to to who you think should be allowed on to Twitter? Well, my aspiration for Twitter, or in general for the digital town square would be that it is as inclusive in the broader sense of the word as possible. UM that it is, it is appealing a
system to use. UM. So I mean I do I'd like to get like of h that's in North America and perhaps I don't know half the world or something ultimately on on Twitter in one form or another, and that needs That means it must be something that is appealing to people. It obviously can out to be a place where they feel uncomfortable or harassed, m or there will something not use it. That was Testlas CEO Elon Musk speaking to Bloomberg News Editor in chief John mickel
Thwaite at the Quitar Economic Forum. You can check out more of that interview at Bloomberg dot com. It's sim Stentific and Katie Greifeld were live in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Katie, there's a lot to pick apart here in that interview and a lot of takeaways, but perhaps what's most interesting to me is Elon Musk's
view on the economy. He's got a really he's got an interesting perch, given that he's the CEO of this multinational car company that has factories in China, in Berlin, and in the United States, a unique perch, A super bad feeling. He did say that those were his words, super bad feeling, super bad feeling. He did say he thinks that a recession in the US is inevitable. Also interesting to hear him talk a little bit about the
Twitter deal. He said there's a few unresolved matters. He's still waiting for a resolution on that question about bots. Interesting though Twitter shares high're about it by about three point two percent right now. Tim he did say at China is not a deal, not a problem for the company, which I thought was interesting. And we should note that he was able to do something that no other car company has been able to do in China by building
that wholly owned Tesla factory. If you remember, you know, every other car company historically has had to do joint ventures with homegrown Chinese company. Musk was able to retain control of that Tesla factory again. Check more of that out online at Bloomberg dot com. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week, and this is Bloomberg Radio broc Journal. Yeah, but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please, I'll do the driving revels. I want to drive the question.
This is the drive to the clothes down on Bloomberg Radio. All right, listen, ten minut it's to go here. We are seeing a rally on the SMP five hundred and the nazac Amadoo of course as well, two point seven percent to the upside on the SMP the nastac hire by two point eight percent. Eager to get into this with our next guest, Jeff Crumpelman, to travel all the way from Cincinnati. He's with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studios. He's the chief investment strategist and head of
equities at Mariner Wealth Advisers. Jeff, good to have you with us. How are you this afternoon? It's great, It's it's great to be back in New York. I haven't been here for a couple of years, so you know, I'm gonna go to a Broadway play tonight. Nice, and it's nice to be back. I'll be here on a green day too, hopefully than for arranging it. Okay, yeah, well hopefully you're you're back with us in person more because it's really good to have you with us in
the studio. Jeff, you say it's good to be here on a green day, so a big side of relief? Is the worst behind us? Well, I I yeah, I think the operative part of that phrase was the war is the worst behind us. We do think that there could be more downside. There's there's things that's unsettling as we go through all these transitions that we all know about FED policy, pandemic to endemic as examples. Politically, we've got an election coming up. There's gonna be transition there,
so on and so forth. The economy is going to a slower phase, not a recession, we don't think, but a slower phase. And uh so, yeah, it's it's nice to see a little bit of green, but I do think we've got uh some downside from here. I think there's way more upside downside, Yeah, far more upside. Why do you say that? Because still on average the SMP five hundred from a price earnings perspective is still above the historical average of of of where it typically has been,
so so by that measure, it's still expensive. The ever stock is down. Ps have actually come down going into today to about fifteen, which is just about average. And if you look at interest rate environments like we have today, it's actually blow average. It's attractive. And if you look at the equity risk premium, the earning shield that you get because earnings are still strong, it's still above average.
So that makes the market kind of attractively priced. And we are at three point six percent unemployment right now. It is very rare to see scorched earth, you know, results in the economy and trend when you're at three point six percent unemployment, so you know, one of the things, um not to belabor this, but uh, a lot of
peers are talking about an average parer market might be down. Well, that's true if you include depression periods like twenty nine and thirty seven, seventy three when you had oil embargoes going on, and then you look at O one and oh seven, I mean, those were those were really awful times where you're worried in some cases of breadlines. Right if we have a recession, it should be a very
mild recession. I'm not really concerned about recession. It's really a question of where will rates peak, and we think they'll stabilize. The economy is already slowing. We think they'll stabilize at a reasonable level, not as high as people fear. And boy, with earning strong, it should be good. And you brought up where I want to go. The concept of the earnings yield on the spire still a healthy place. But you look at the ten year treasury, I see
three point three percent. If you look at the average yield on investment grade corporate bonds about four and a half percent. At what point does fixed income become more attractive than equities? Well, you know, I think that part of the reason why we aren't saying buy on the dips is because people are not rushing into bonds. Every time we've had fear in the past, they rushed in the bonds and that's brought interest rates down. And then
you go, wow, look at that dividend yield. Really, so that's not happening right now, which I think is part of the reason why we say don't buy on the dip yet, hold your ground, hold your ground, don't bind the dip. I do think that bonds in the shorter
period two to five years are attractive. At this point, they're over three percent, and if you buy individual bonds and you can make three percent um, you have very little downside, very little interest rate risk, because you just you know, holding the mature and then you can roll it over. So it sounds simple to keep its simple strategy. But I do think finally bonds at that level, I wouldn't go out ten years because the old curve is so flat at that point after you get through the
five year. But yeah, and to your point that we haven't seen that rush into bonds, I mean, what do you think is sort of stopping that's not just inflation fears that that'll just erode your your any games you could get. Or is it just that yields haven't been high enough to really compete and be attracted with some of the other asset classes. Well, the head what's catching the headlines. It's inflation, It's the FED rate hikes, and so people are afraid, afraid that those rates are going
to continue go high. And if I buy, I'm gonna lose money. And I have significant downside. That's true if you own funds um and if you own longer dated bonds, but it's not if you are buying short and certainly in individual bonds. Hey, Jeff, I want to get to some of your stock picks, because you've got great names
on here. I gotta start with tests that We had any exclusive interview with Elon Musk over at the Guitar Economic for empowered by Bloombar Art in chief John Nicholkway conducting that, and a lot of Musk's commentary focused on the state of the economy, what he's doing with Twitter. But let's talk Tesla because that's the company that provides the source of most of his wealth at this point, and the stock has been on a rough ride over the last few months. Why are you so bullish on it?
You know, it's interesting because Tesla for the longest time kind of it was maybe analogous to Amazon, you know, twenty years ago, and you know, you had, um, you know, this this growth and uh it looked like a nice path to increasing production. But there's no earnings and it was just you know, choking on the need for cash. Right. The balance sheet was horrible and they just had to
keep raising funds. That's all changed. It's profitable. It's the most profitable auto company in the United States of electric vehicle sales market share. And in addition to being an auto company. And if you think, you know e V isn't gonna work, maybe you don't own Tesla, but clearly that's where we're headed. You've got charging stations, you have solar um you know, you have so much more than
just an auto company, the advanced driving systems that they manufacture. UM. So, uh, you know you've you've got UM a PE that's about forty five times, but you've got thirty five growth and a long runway with a great product. So we just think that, uh, at twelve hundred, maybe it's not comfortable. At six hundred, it's it's it's off, you know, in the in the seven hundreds, now, I guess, um, that's where we find it very attractive. That's performing in the
SP five on a points basis. Today. There you go, there, you go, a nice size and scope. There. We don't have much time left. I'm curious here some of your other high conviction calls, Navidia jumps to mind seconds question. So in videos, similarly, it's off, you know, and they make chips for artificial intelligence, the data center and the loud and that is not going away. It is you know,
leading edge. And the chips that they make certainly for the gamers, and the chip that is out there can be used for new uses like artificial intelligence and radiology. So we think it's is the best positioned UH semi conductor company in the world. Jeff Grumpelman and chief investment strategist and head of Equities at Mariner Wealth Advisors with us live any Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio, usually in Cincinnati. Jeff really appreciate you taking the time and joining us
on Bloomberg Business Week. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube. Search to Bloomberg Global News
