Fed Stays in Holding Pattern, Election Legal Issues

If you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, and be sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. The Fed holding rates near zero, no change in the bond buying pace, but this was widely expected. Here we are just two days after election. Let's talk a little bit about this decision or what we really need to see or expect to see from the Fed over the

next few weeks. Let's get the Business Week agenda. Bloomberg News Global Economics and Policy Editor Kathleen Hayes is with us, and she is there in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Hey, Kathleen, Um, we weren't expecting any surprises, correct, Well, of course, it's hard to expect a suppress Now I know what you mean. We figured, look, they're they're kind of stuck with what

they've got. Let me start though, by pointing something out, because right before two o'clock I noted there's a very small sell off today in bonds, but it's gotten a little bit deeper. For example, the benchmark tenure, which was down to thirty seconds, now down five thirty seconds. The thirty year was down one thirty second, it's down six

thirty seconds. So maybe a little bit of upward pressure on yields is a disappointment because maybe nobody expected the Fed would say, hey, we're ready to start increasing our bond purchases, but they what they did repeat is hey, we're going to keep it where it is for now, which is a hundred and twenty billion dollars a month, eighty billion of treasuries, forty billion of mortgage backed securities.

And because when you know, coming into the elections, when people were betting pretty heavily on a blue wave, that would lead to a lot of fiscal stimulus, more than if if Trump stayed in the White House, etcetera. We saw the curve steepening, we saw long term yields going up. But people we're saying, well, if nothing else. The Fed's got to make it clear that they're going to work against it if they have to. Well, what they're saying so far today is don't have to do it yet.

So I think, Carol, this will be one of the big questions at the top of the list for j Powell when he starts that press conference at two thirty Eastern. And maybe he just didn't want to stir the pot in a in a week where the pot has been stirred a lot. And having said that, Kathleen, he you know, they fed another headline. They're going to continue to uh focus obviously and watch the virus. They said the virus will continue to weigh on economic activity. The virus to

pose considerable risks to the medium term outlook. They say the overall financial conditions remain commitative, commodative, and they say weaker demand, lower all oil prices, holding down inflation, economic activity and employment have continued to recover. So that's kind of their snapshot picture. Well, they've been saying, I would say,

pretty unanimously since March. Uh. In fact, you're making me think of when I interviewed Jim Bullard from the St. Louis FED and Rob A. Problem within two well one day and then the next one, uh, you know, and that was just after the emergency meeting where they started cutting raids and they said, it's all about the virus. You know, the unemployment headlines, the payrolls headlines don't mean as much as the virus headlines. I think that started

to shift because the US economy is in recovery. The job recovery seems to have slowed down, but that focus till tomorrow. Right, Let's see if it continue, if the economy at least continue to create jobs or not a lot of people on unemployment, A lot of people go going on the longer term unemployment, so that's still not a positive sign. But that's about the virus. And that's another reason where the FED would say, until this health crisis is over, we can't we're not going to consider

doing any change in policy. Right, and the FEDS saying that the path of recovery depending on the course of the coronavirus pandemic. They know, we know it, everybody knows it. But it does feel like Dave Wilson, come on in Bloomberg Stocks columnist and editor watching the equity it feels like equity markets kind of forgot that we are in the midst of a pandemic. This week, well, it sure does.

I mean, you really saw a recovery from you know, when day remembered last week and stocks really took a hit. And today it's interesting because you know, the criticism about yesterday's advance is that you know, you have the SMP five hundred up more than two percent, and there are actually more stocks in the index down than up by some of the UH research I saw, I mean, that

was the first time it ever happened. And so today what do you have, Uh, you know, SMP five hundred up more than two percent again this time around, though you have close to nine stocks up in the SMP bile hunted for everyone that's down. So it's clear that it's a blood based advanced this time around. Uh. You know, the s and people a hundred rising toward its highs of the day after the results of the FED meeting

were released. And if you look what's going on today, it's a lot of the economically sensitive areas of the market kind of leading the way, notably raw material producers UH with gain for their index of four point seven percent at the moment, I mean all eleven of the main texts are higher, but the raw material producers certainly

jump out of today's trading. Listen, Kathleen, I just when we think about Fed policy, you know, is it is there a possibility I was listening to a guest that David Weston head on, you know, the possibility that we go back into negative rates or the Fed will need to be more aggressive depending on where the economy goes. Well, they keep saying they have more tools up until now beneficials from J. Paul doesn't matter almost who you ask.

They're not fans of negative rates. They go right to money market funds, for example, would really mess up that market if you, uh, potentially if you if you're going to move in that direction. Uh. And then beyond that, I think the thing people might start talking about more is yield curve control. Because if you want to officially add a tool, I mean, if you're buying bonds and you want to keep yields from right, you know, raising too much, that's yes start of I think it's kind of,

you know, the precursor of Yelker control. But to take it a step further and to target, make a target for the tenure yield for example, and say we're going to make sure it doesn't go above that. That would be a step. I think the problem for the FED right now, or the challenge is that sure bring another tool in. As long as there's so many people unemployed and a lot of people don't want to go back to work, or their jobs aren't even there to go

back to, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. Any tool is going to have a tough time doing very much. But in addition though that, the bond purchases, I think people figure you can just flat out increase the amount. But it is as you started out the beginning, I think hitting at we're in an election week, not an election day anymore, right, and the middle of all this, the Fed's best bet

is just to sit tight and wait for the December meeting. Well, and the one thing that we're going to talk about over the next few hours this split income, this split outcome that we could potentially see if Joe Biden gets the White House, if we have still a Republican Republican controlled Senate, that the chance of a big stimulus package is less likely. You know. So you you wonder, then the FED watching this and what what more can they do?

And he can say and J. Powe will surely get I can't imagine j Pie not feeling like he could say today, well, no matter what happens, um, we still need stimulus. He could certainly repeat that. I you know, Mitch McConnell, who presumably maybe the SENTI majority leader or may not depending on all it goes, right, said when when they get back, when Congress reconvened, job one is going to be a rescue package. Now, the trillion dollar figure was on the table at one point, right, the

five billion that he floated before the election seemed really light. Um, you know, so so I think I'm an optimist, Carol. So I think it may not be two point two trillion, which the Democrats have pushed hard for, lead by Nancy Pelosians just last seats and you know, Democratic seats in the House. But maybe maybe because something I could trillion. That's that's not nothing, No, it's not nothing. There's a

lot of zeros in that number. Dave Wilson, just quickly tease your chart because it has kind of an election related I feel like our administration related theme. Well, it's all about private prison stocks. President Trump tried to prop up the industry not long after he got the into office. Didn't work out so well, and now you got the election results and things are getting worse for those stocks.

All right, We're looking forward to that. Hey, team, thank you so much, really appreciated setting the agenda on this Thursday. Bloomberg News Global Economics and Policy Editor Kathleen Hayes back in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio and Bloomberg Stocks editor Dave Wilson. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer

from Bloomberg Radio. We're gonna bring you the latest on this week's election as the counting of the votes continues, the lawsuits continue, and we're all awaiting to find out who will take up at Pennsylvania Avenue come January. We'll joining me today as we go through it all over the next few hours. Kevin CEREALI He is Bloomberg News Chief,

Washington correspondent of Bloomberg Radio and TV host. You know him well a Bloomberg sound on on Bloomberg nine and I one in Washington, d C. He joins us from there. Juno Rosso also with US legal analyst and host of Bloomberg Law on Bloomberg Radio every evening. He she joins us on the phone in New York. So, Kevin, let me kick it off with you. Where are we? I mean, Nancy Lione just gave us a good rundown of some of the key states and what's going on. But what

are you watching? What are you hearing also from the Biden and Trump camps. Well, look, I think I think first things first, it's great to be here with you, Carol, great to have Ben. That beyond that, all eyes are going to be on Nevada, right and Clark County, Nevada, because that specifically where we're still getting some of the vote tallies. Now, last I checked, just before I came on air, I dove into the Bloomberg terminal and I looked at the actual vote tally. Uh and Joe Biden

is leading by about twelve thousand votes. That's a razor thin margin. Uh. So beyond that, the president's former director of National Intelligence, Rick Renel, he is in Nevada right now. Uh and fully just breeched reporters and said, essentially, they are fully prepared to take this thing through the courts. They're making this legal argument essentially that they believe there's been a number of votes cast in Nevada by people from out of state, so they don't feel that those

votes should be counted in the Nevada election. That's what's going on in that state. We should note just the electoral math right now. Joe Biden, based upon the Bloomberg Electoral map total is that two hundred and sixty four, which puts him just six electoral votes away a k a. The size of Nevada away from reaching the magic number

of two hundred and seventy. The Trump campaign, for their part, UH, they have said that they're going to pursue legal action in Pennsylvania, in Wisconsin, UH, and even to some extent maybe even in North Carolina. So that's where things stand as of now. Obviously, as we've been reporting for the past week, really this week, we're urging patients caution as as we sort through all of this. But as we get the developments, will will break them in real time.

I want to get to June, but just remind me Kevin d j T the president, where is he in terms of electoral votes right now? Well, right now he is still a couple of votes away. I believe the last I checked. It was to eighteen for for President Trump. Um, and uh so that's where he is right now, but he would have to win. He still has a shot. We should mention if he if he wins Georgia, North Carolina as well as Pennsylvania, that would put him, uh with a path. It's just you know, it's you know,

they're gonna have to pursue legal action. Yeah, it's strict your path. I think that's safe to say. Yeah, exactly. So, June, come on in. I mean, you watch the legal world, you know it so well. Kevin talked about some of the lawsuits that we've been seeing fast, you know, fast and furiously crossing the bloomberg. You know, what do we need to know about the Trump team and the lawsuits that are out there, Well, they are filing a lot of lawsuits, that's the first thing you need to know.

And they're filing them, you know, in a lot of these states where the vote is still being counted, or in other states for example like Michigan. And there are different reasons for the lawsuits, but most of the time they're being turned away by the it's for example, they tried to stop the ballot counting in Michigan yesterday, Well, a judge said, the essence of the count is completed. The relief is completely unavailable. So I think any of their any of their lawsuits to stop the count are

going to have a lot of trouble getting through. And also a lot of these other cases you've heard. Kevin mentioned that there's that they are saying this in about Nevada Clark County. But a problem is they're making a lot of allegations, but when they go into a judge to try to prove them, they don't have the evidence to back them. So you're hearing all kinds of fraud allegations,

but you know where is the fraud. They alleged that um in Georgia yesterday that a poll worker had put the votes that ballots that came in late mixed them with the votes of ballots that had come in on time. That was proven when it went before a judge not to be the case. And a lot of the poll observers actually they found that they look for things and they sometimes line things that really aren't there because they're they're looking. And then today President Trump said there was

a huge victory in Pennsylvania in court. Do you know what that victory was. The pole observers from the Trump campaign were allowed to move from about thirty feet observing to sixty to six feet up turving, So it was And by the way, that's online anyway, so you can see it online. So that's not a huge victory, right. A lot of it goes to transparency, which is what the campaigns, both campaigns to be fair, have been pushing for all along in this process. I do want to

bring into the conversation. It's been one of our go to voices on the campaign in the election, joining June and Kevin and myself as Bloomberg News political contributor and I own a college professor of political science, Genzano joining us once again from New Rochelle, New York. You and I we've been talking for a long time. We all have been um. But here we are Thursday, and there are expectations that this could go on for a few

more days. When you look at where we are in the race, what comes to mind first and most well, you know, a bit still trying to grapple with the fact, as you mentioned, that we are now on Thursday and looking like we may not have results in for a couple of days. You know, going into this, we knew Pennsylvania may take until Friday. I was probably optimistic um

that it wouldn't come down to Pennsylvania. But at this point, I think one thing that comes to mind is the idea that we are still waiting on results not just from Pennsylvania, but Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and of course, you know, depending on who you're listening to, some people haven't even been you know, quite satisfied with what's coming

out of Arizona at this point. So the closeness as we sort of compare this historically to say a two thousand in many states, and the fact we're not just talking about one state where there maybe you were just talking about potential contests, legal challenges, but that we're talking multiple states, you know, quite a difference, and I think that speaks volumes as to where we are at this

point in our country and how divided we are. Hey, Jeannie, it's uh Kevin here, and let me just correct something I recently said. Uh, Trump has two hundred and fourteen electoral votes. I want to be careful with this, so, uh Joe Biden has two hundred sixty four six votes away from the threshold of two seventy. President Trump has two hundred and fourteen electoral votes. That's where the map stands right now. And you can follow all of our

election coverage. Mind you on election go on the Bloomberg terminal. Jennie, you mentioned Arizona, and I want to pick up on that because that has been a conversation that I've been having with my sources in the President's reelection campaign. They are really confident that once the math is settled on Maricopa County, that they will have the votes to win Arizona.

Explain to us where things stand right now in this key battleground state that the networks and the associated press have called for, uh, Joe Biden at this point, UM, So you know, it's it's a fascinating situation in Arizona. UM. You know, again, we're looking at about six percent um have been counted already, and we see a very narrow

lead for Joe Biden. UM about depending again on on what numbers and when they've been refreshed, that you're looking at about fifty point five percent to forty eight point one. It's a little bit bigger than some of the others but it's such a critical state because it has eleven

electoral votes. And when some of the you know networks and others started calling it, as we talked about on Tuesday Night Box, and then later the ape started calling it a bit early, that really frustrated the president and his team. UM. And now we are looking to see nobody, as far as I have have said, and I don't want to misspeak because I'm trying to keep up with whatevere everbody is. But nobody, as far as I know, who called it has taken the call back, which is

an indication that they feel pretty confident. But I do think that it is one of those cases where we will see legal challenge just from the President's team because Arizona is such a critical state for the president and his team. UM. The idea that that goes Biden. Of course, in two two thousand and sixteen, you had the president beating Hillary Clinton there about fifty one point one. We're seeing, if you believe the numbers of six percent reporting, receive

almost a slip there with Joe Biden. So I think it's going to be one of the contested states. The president seems feels like they need that particularly since miss At least in my view, Michigan and Wisconsin seems so out of grasp to the president even legally at this point. But I don't want to misspeak on that. You know, we've talked about Arizona, Nevada, I mean those two counties, Clark in Maricopa. I mean, these are two of the

largest counties in the US. So there's a lot of votes to process, no doubt about it, I do under Genie, depending on the outcome. One thing to remember here, you understand this process. You've studied a lot of elections. I mean, it's not uncommon, especially if there's a close race, you know, to go and check the count and confirm that the

outcome is the outcome. Yeah, it's not unusual, but I think you know the fact Number one, what is unusual as we see so many states so closely, um, you know that are so close rather and the other thing that I think is a bit unusual is the idea that you would have so many legal challenges. I don't think we've seen anything like this, But historically, I don't think this is something we should be surprised at because this is to a certain extent where we've been moving

since two thousands, you know, in the United States. Unfortunately, at this point elections have very much moved into the court system, and for a democracy, that is a big question to think about broader than just this election. Yeah, democracy can be messy. I do want to mention a headline. It was about half an hour before we came on air a Pennsylvania officials saying that most votes may be counted by today, so continuing to of course count them

a June, come on in on this. You're listening to our conversation, Hi, Jennie, Well, we're just talking about Pennsylvania. Carol said that they're acting that most votes will be counted by today, and earlier today, Joe Biden's campaign manager said that Biden is closing in on Trump's lead and that by the end of the day, Biden is going to win by a sizable number of votes. I wonder

if you think that's overly optimistic about Pennsylvania. You know, that's what I It's such a good question, because that's what I have and you know, we've long believed that those later votes, the mail in ballots, if you will, the absentee ballots with favor President sorry, Vice President Biden m because the Democrats had been so careful to get their vote out early and same day voting would favor the president to a certain extent. So I am not

surprised to hear that. So it's gonna be not just when people voted, but where the vote count there, where they're still voting. And I think as we look like a place like Pennsylvania, that doesn't surprise me. Nor by the way, it doesn't surprise me that the vice president is going to get votes out of Georgia as discount continues. So based on those two factors, so when they voted, and where they were voting, where the vote count is still coming from, rather, I think it is not surprising

that we see a narrowing of the gap. And you know, I wouldn't want to predict that Biden would overtake the Trump in Pennsylvania, but I you know, I think it is possible still at this point. And folks, if it sounds confusing, it's because it is right because the president is I mean, I mean, and it even for us

and in this business. But I can't even imagine following along at home because there's just right now threats of legal action and we don't have really hard, hard data or hard documentation source material in front of us and June, I mean, I would put this question to June because specifically, you know, as it relates to the case that we saw go to the Supreme Court on October, right, the case that the new judge Amy Coney Barrett decided not to participate in because she was just a few days

on the job. And honestly, we might be revisiting that case, which would allow for votes that are postmarked on election day to be counted in Pennsylvania for up to three days afterward. And that's what I hear a lot of my sources talking about. But the President has even uh given conflicting statements via social media on Twitter on this particular point. What don't we know specifically June about that

uh Pennsylvania case. And June just got thirty seconds, and then we'll come back, Okay, this it's too complicated to do in thirty seconds, So I'll just say it's very complicated. Let's pick up with it on the other side, because there are a lot of indications that it may not actually get to the Supreme Court, but there are possibilities that it could and It depends on a lot of

different factors. And just to remind everyone, this is about the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision that ballots that were postmarked by election day could be received three days after election day. The Supreme Court did not touch that by a fourd or four vote, but some of the conservative justice has said, well, we can come back to this maybe after the election.

So the possibilities, as Kevin mentioned, the possibilities there are that being a Bush v. Gore scenario, the possibilities are there, but there has to be basically a perfect storm of problems. The election has to be so close that Pennsylvania is the pivotal state that the election results depend on. The margin of the vote in Pennsylvania has to be the same or less than the number of ballots that are contested.

So there's the number of ballots that are contested and we're counted, there'll be held, there are being held aside. That has to be greater than the margin that separates Biden and Trump so that it would change the election results. So you have to have all those things going on. Remember Bush v. Gore was about five seven ballots. Yeah, it's pretty you know, we're really getting in the weeds. But we're understanding how this process works. G D, come

on back in. You know. I do wonder how you anticipate, you know, the next few days kind of playing out, or is this that a possibility that we go into next week before we really know who is the winner for the White House? You know, I would expect that we would know sooner than next week. I would think that we should know if Pennsylvania does finish counting by the end of the day today, you know, into tomorrow, as we were originally told. Um, you know, we get

results fairly soon. UM. And I don't want to misspeak out of Arizona Nevada. You know already Arizona, you know, has been called by the A P and others, and Bloomberg has gone with that call. Um. I think we should know because depending on who you are watching, Um, you know, Joe Biden is very close to that to sevent d mark. Now that's not to say that the

president is not going to challenge those results. So I'm not suggesting that we're going to accept that yet, Jennie, and I think that raises such a great point, right because just earlier today Clark County registrar Joe Gloria, he's the official in Nevada who's overseeing all of this and this incredibly important, important battleground state right now six electoral votes. He's saying that it might take until Saturday or Sunday

before the state's largest county, Clark County, Las Vegas. Clark County finishes their votes tabulations, so they might not official give officially give this to Standford the approval until this weekend out in Nevada. So they're taking their I don't want to say they're taking their time, but but according to him, he said at a press conference earlier today, quote, our goal here in Clark County is not to count fast. We want to make sure that we are being accurate.

And he went on to say that they still have at least sixty three thousand, two hundred and sixty two ballots Carol, that they still have less account um and then coupled with all these legal threats that we're seeing coming from the Trump campaign, Yeah, it's pretty remarkable. So, Geenie, you know, when I watched this process, we've talked about it before, We're going to talk about this later, that maybe we need a better election process that maybe the

electoral college has you know, it's time has um. What's your observations on this and what's the likelihood of something changing? Well, you know that it's it's such a good question. There are you know, obviously, the electoral college is part of our constitution. There are ways to get around, if you will, the electoral college without amending the constitution, because I don't see that happening anytime soon. We haven't amended the constitution

since the early nineteen seventies. In this partisan environment, I think it would be tough to do. But we do have movements out there, like the National Popular Vote compact Um, which are closing in on this sort of back end way to get around it, which would be that a number of states totaling two seventy more or more electoral college votes agree to the compact um where they will

follow the national popular vote winner. So if they make headway there, and I think I don't want to me speak, I think you're about seventy electoral college votes short of that. If they make progress there, if you have have enough states following the popular vote like that, then you know the idea that the electoral college winner wouldn't be the popular vote winner would be off the table. Do I think that's going to happen anytime soon? I think it's

more likely. Um, you know, if we were to have a result this time where the popular vote winner was not the electoral college vote winner. If not, and Carol,

that's not that I doubt it. Yeah, but that's where the divided government really gets interesting, especially on on changing things like the Supreme Court, because Republicans are looking like they're going to have a majority in the Senate and that means that is going to happen as far as all the people have been talking about court packing, and it was such a big question and Joe Biden was going to appoint a commission and without the Senate, there's

not even a question about it. It's why we have to think about so many different things, especially when it comes to making change. Jeanie's know you're the best. Thank you so much, Bloomberg News political contributor and I own a college professor of political science. On the phone from Westchester. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser from Bloomberg Radio.

All right. This week's voting process. Man, we're all over it. Uh. It seems like it's similar to what happened in as many wondering, you know, has many of us wondering about how we elect presidents, and we're talking about the electoral college. This story, uh, this upcoming story that we're gonna talk about. It's in the new issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. It's about how we maybe need to make America boring

again by fixing its dated system. That story reported by Bloomberg New senior international affairs reporter Mark Champion joining Kevin Silli, June Grosso and me. Mark joining us from London. Mark, it's great to have you here with us, so tell us about our system uh not doing so well? Huh, Yes, I mean it's in a way it's ironic because you know, this is the you know, a country that has the oldest constitutional democracy in the world, extremely rightly proud of it,

the constitution. Uh, and yet the constitution is part of the problem in the sense that you know, this is an election system that has kind of become ossified and a lot of the problems that many many countries had and have gradually sort of worked out over the years, it hasn't really been possible to do that in the US, and so you have a system where, you know, just to take one example, we've had a lot of uh, you know, toxic debate really over voter I D and

voter registration, with accusations that you know, it's a tools for suppression and all that sort of thing. Well, you know, in a country like India, which has eight hundred million voters, very complicated federal system, very complication complicated elections. UM, they have automatic registration at the age of eighteen. You're issued automatically, it's sent free in the mail to you a photo ID card which is matched to the electoral role. There

simply isn't a problem. So there's a lot of structural issues like that that really come to the surface when the political atmosphere becomes very polarized and the debate becomes you know, poisonous, and that is really what's happened in

the US. Mark I was really impressed with the system that you just talked about, the automatic registration system in India, But I wonder if anything like that would work here when we're in a country where even with you know, some government directives to wear masks that there are people who think that that intinges on their liberty rights. So I wonder if it would work here. Uh, well, that's it's a very you know, a good question and a

good point. I mean, I guess the count that would be that a lot of states have implemented what amounts to automatic registration, um, you know, other states have not. And that kind of goes to a second issue with the US, which is quite you know, quite unusual in

the US. Even federal systems like Canada, you know, Germany, UH, India and others, they have a single electoral authority that administers the election, sets the rules, determines when poll polling stations open, and not what the ballot design isn't all that it's it's done from one part of the end of the country to the other by the same organization applying the same rules. The US doesn't do that. The US Constitution gives the authority for the elections to individual states.

Of what you have is a very different voting experience in you know, a state like Georgia from a state like Vermont. And in fact, when you know rankings are done where the electoral performance processes of UH countries across the world have put it under the microscope on different criteria, and you come up with the ranking. You know, Vermont is right up there with the best countries, the Scandinavias

and and Scandinavian countries and so on. But George, as you know, way down in a completely different world, even not doing as well as the Republic of Georgia, the former Soviet Republic of Georgia. Well, I mean, with all due respect, actually I'll take that far back to the Soviets. I mean they don't have the best record of democracy and not apples to apples, right, but other But you know, but other countries have much better systems than we do. I mean, we have state by state, county by county,

and it makes and you see what happens. Look at them. Look at the different results we're getting when and the different rules that are in place. I mean, I think it's needs reforming. Well, Mark, come on in, because reading through your story is you know there's someone you quote in it, and just as part of the problem is that the U S system is it's old. You know that it was drafted when there were no women judges. There were slaves in California, didn't exist. I mean, there

were you know, we all talk about disruption. Systems need to be you know, revised, made better, and we could do that. They do, they do need to be revised. And you know Germany, for example, is constantly revising its electoral system and its constitution. It's just much easier to do. And then the sort of the irony is that, you know, Americans after the war were quite involved one way and another in h you know, helping the Jones with their constitution.

But you know, the the American constitution itself is very hard to change. It has been changed not very many times. Uh. And you know it is you know, at times that's a great thing. At other times it's it's an obstacle. What does the United States do right? Mark? What does it do right? Well? Actually, the you know, it was quite interesting in listening to the the os CE, monitors

for the Organization for Security in Corporation in Europe. They monitor you know, elections in all of their member states, the fifty seven afterm including the US. Every every member is committed to let these monitors come and look at their elections. And at the end, they you know, they say what was good, what was bad? And they give recommendations and on and one of the things that they said is that the really the spirit. So this is the spirit of all the people who are running the elections,

the volunteers, the local officials. There's an army of people out there doing it. And the point that they made is that, you know, the reason this system works, you know, it is still a functioning democracy, is that all these people, you know, are you know, they're doing something they believe in, and that they are you know, fairly well trained, they know what they're doing. Uh, And so that works where they said that it falls down no easy feat, No,

not an easy feat at all. And and it's sort of had to grow organically because it isn't just done by you know, a single organization that kind of can hone all of its you know, the wheels of its machinery. It happens, uh, you know, organically, and grows up over the years in different ways, in different states. Um. And at times you know that it's normally that work fine. All through the twentieth century, it work fine, but you know,

increasingly it's a problem. And that's really because of the polarization, and that presses down on the weaknesses in the systems, you know, the places where someone can you know, take advantage. And arguably you've seen that happen where several states, you know, with the mail in votes and so on, several states said well, you can't start counting until you know election day, uh, you know, whereas other states counted early and it was

all dealt with. And now you have, you know, we have what we have with the prest thing that these mark we gotta run. I'm so sorry, but everybody should go online check out the magazine because it's a great read. I mean, it's a very different country when our forefathers created it, that's for sure. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. President Trump's legal team, Man, this has been an important issue we know of this

election cycle. We've been anticipating the legal angle of the election, uh leading up to the election, and we continue to talk about it as a Trump's team in particular, has really flooded states with lawsuits as the count continues. Let's get into what we need to know on the legal front. Derek Muller is Professor of law at University of Iowa College of Law. He's taught courses in election law and federal courts and so much more. He joins us on

the phone from Iowa City, Iowa. Derek, great to have you here with Kevin and June and myself. So when you look at this and here we are waiting for an outcome. We know that there are talks and of recounts and legal cases. What is it that you think is the most important when it comes to the legal story of election. Yeah, I mean it's a sort of flooding the zone right now. I think about you know, um,

the three tracks happening right now. Um, but it's sort of an open question about how many, if any, are going to be decisive. Right. So there's the one track where there are lawsuits saying that the Trump campaign has been denied access to observe certain procedures in the election. Um, they want one of those in Pennsylvania today. That's an appeal and there's some others pending in other states to say we need to have our people in the building

to make sure everything looks okay. Um. That might slow things down briefly, but it doesn't really change a whole lot, except unless the observers inject. The second thing is to think about sort of challenges to certain batches of ballots. So they've sued in some places in Georgia and Pennsylvania. To day, this county has had this particular procedure either UM with handwriting mismatch or the like that that wasn't sort of properly approved. They're not implementing it correctly. UM,

so those might affect small batches of ballots. UM. So far they haven't. But that's sort of one potential thing to think about. And the third is the recounts. They've already indicated they like to recount Wisconsin. We'll see, we're sort of waiting for some final results, right. We have to finish account before we can get to the recount UM,

and then we'll see what happens. But I think, you know, with all these things, that depends if it's if it's a Biden campaign appears to be substantially ahead in a large number of states. UM, at the end of these accounts, it's going to be very hard to succeed because you really got to get all your ducks in a row

in all these places. So Derek lawsuits were dismissed in Michigan and Georgia, and today Pennsylvania Republicans withdrew their request for court order in a suburban county in near Philly where they accused officials of illegally allowing mail involves to be counted before election day. Now they're the losses. The one the one win that I see is the one you refer to. Where about access to the counting process? And could they get closer to watch six ft instead

of the thirty ft. Do you see any other victories that the Trump campaign has had in lawsuits? Uh? No other victories so far, at least none, none that I've seen there. There Again, there are so many, it's hard to keep track. Um, but I think, yeah, the observer ones are interesting because they really are facts on the ground right there. They are the questions about, you know, was this observer doing something disruptive where they entitled to be there? Was it a timing issue, whatever it might be.

And again the Pennsylvania Supreme Court is reconsidering that the challenge we just talked about, um for some of these other ones, saying you know, these ballots shouldn't be counted, they should be excluded. You know that they're not cured properly. Um, those might take a few more days because they're not as suppressing. Right, the observation has to be happening right now as they're counting, whereas if we've counted everything else and we're fighting over a smaller batch of ballots, those

things might come you know, in the next week. So we'll see about that front. Um. But it's it's very hard that there's sort of again a lot of things out there, and it's it's hard to tell without getting deep in the weeds on the particular fact and the trustworthiness of the witnesses allegations and what the other side has to say about whether or not this is normal. Um, it's just hard to sort of make sort of broad based claims about whether any particular ones look look really

good at this time. And just following up on there are several lawsuits that are talking about and requiring or want more access to the ballot process as you just described. But will those mean anything after the vote is counted? I mean, is there Yes, they want to get access, they want to see closer, But what happens after the ballots are counted? Does that where does that leave them? Is there any remedy for them? So not? I mean

after they're counted. They're counted, right, So, um, you know, the observation there is is particularly important to make sure that teams are are counting ballots appropriately. So you know, I think I think it varies a little bit from state to state, but but most states have a process where there's already a bipartisan team who's supposed to be there counting the ballot, especially with absentee valts, they have to pull them out of the envelope and flatten them

out and run them through their machine. Um. And then sometimes there's questions if the machine doesn't doesn't pick up on it, is it because the ballot was torn or miss or main gold or the different way? Did they use red pen instead of black pen and the machine didn't pick it up? And then there's some sort of question, well, how do we count this ballot? And usually again that

bipartisan team reaches a consensus conclusion um. And so the observers are there just to make sure that everyone sort of complying with the law, that they're not sort of throwing out a batch of ballots or they're including ones that should have been excluded, and they can provide that opportunity to challenge. But but once the sort of challenges have sort of run their course and the ballots are

run through the machine and add into those totals. I mean, it's really hard to unscramble the egg at that point, right, unless you can prove something systemic fraudulent across the state or in a broad way to undermine the election results, um the totals of the totals. So Derek, you're listening to that. I mean, it really gets down to the nitty gritty, but it does, you know, it makes me wonder as an American. And I thought about that because I actually walked to the polls. I wanted to. I

like to see the process. But it does, you know, get to the question and begs, you know, the question of you know, how safe how a lie bull is our election process? You know? And I don't know if you can tell from past legal challenges and what's happening today, but what is your take on that? Yeah, I mean I think people feel pretty confident in the election systems is safe and secure on the various levels, right. I mean,

we do the best we can. There's gonna be mistakes and problems that happen, and I think you know that press conference is a great illustration that, um, you know, sometimes it's the wrong form of a ballot. And one of the things in the United States that maybe is a little different from other parts of the world. We

don't only just have fifty states running elections. In a lot of places, it's really county or sometimes even at local municipalities running elections, and they're making these decisions and

sometimes problems arise. So one of the things they talked about in Georgia is there about four hundred ballots that we're on the wrong kind of paper to run through the machine, and so they have to duplicate them, which is they get a bipartisan team together and they refill out the ballots on a proper and a proper kind of ballot they can run through the machine. Compare it to the other one that everyone agrees that that was the voters intent run through the machine, and we counted up.

So it's it's sometimes just a long slog to get through this process. But I think, you know, for the most part, we get over those hiccups. We make it through, and we're gonna see we're gonna see a total h you know, hopefully in the in the weeks that come.

I think the two thousand election educated the majority of Americans about the electoral college and the popular vote, and I think that this election is educating people about the patchwork of different regulations Derek, in terms of every state having a different process, and we've talked about the negatives of that process, but it really does bear to keep in mind about the benefits of that process. From the

national security perspective. I think back to before the two thousand and eighteen mid terms when there was a widespread briefing for the media of run by the nonpartisan intelligence community officials, just as they elaborated upon the significant national security risks that local governments, local municipalities actually face, and that it makes it much more difficult for a hostile foreign actor, there be Russia or iron or China, as we've seen in this election, efforts to do so for

them to hack into a smaller system versus having to do it for for one blanket uh uniform concrete systems. So I think that that bears keeping in mind as well when when all of this is said and done from a legal perspective, Derek, and based upon history, what has the previous elections, what was for example, the most previously litigated election do we know, um, and and how

do you think this might change course for future elections? Yeah, it's it's certainly interesting to think about the comparison of pre election eight challenges and post election dight challenges. And to be frank, I think this election will will blow out all records on both fronts. On the on the pre election side, right, COVID really did a number, I mean, we had hundreds of lawsuits understatement of the year. COVID

really did a number, hundreds of them, right. Um, Now it's worth you know, thinking about, you know, on the post election day side of things. Yeah, I think the Trump campaign again it's sort of flooding the airwaves with sort of uh with with lawsuits all over the place

on a lot of a lot of matters. Something you know, in Florida in two thousand we talked about Bush versus Gore, but I mean there were you know, at least thirty lawsuits filed at various stages by various folks voters, um, you know, interested groups, federal court, state court all over sort of challenging these things, challenging various sort of things. You just kind of all got channeled into the one case of Bush versus Gore that was the ultimate sort

of daniumon if you will, of what happened there. So UM, it's it's interesting in the United States because elections have traditionally been something reserved of the political process. To be frank, if there were disputes about elections, UM, it was really something that Congress resolved. Congress resolved the election of eighteen seventy six, one of the most contested elections in American history.

Congress resolved the tie of the election in eighteen hundred rights because it was it was that sort of a process.

But you know, since Bush versus Gore, we've increasingly looked at litigation and said, you know, maybe that's you know, that that's an attractive place rather to me thinking about about how to resolve these disputes and whether it was John Kerry's you know, attempt that never went through about challenging Ohio in two thousand four, versus the recount efforts by Jill Stein, you know, the Green Party candidate who

funded recounts in Wisconsin. In UM, there's sort of people have been eyeing, you know, whether or not at the right time for the next sort of stage of lawsuits, and this is just I think, um, as the as accounting drags on, we're just going to see Seymour lawsuits

sort of crop off. If that's the case. And Derek, I just wonder your your reaction, because as I keep watching all these many many little press conferences from local officials, local election officials, it seems what impresses me is how serious they are, how that everyone is taking this really seriously and they're really trying to follow all the rules and regulations. They haven't found any kind of fraud. They haven't found an election worker who did something wrong or

ballots that were put in the wrong place. It seems like they're really doing what they have to do, and that that's why most of these lawsuits are going to fail in the end. Yeah, So, I mean I think at a high level, I think that's right. You know, there's no question that we've seen instances of poll workers who have committed fraud, right and those they happen, they're out there, there's examples of it. They're they're rare, but they're out there. Um, you know, ballots haven't been found.

Although to be fair, so far, it seems like in places like Pennsylvania, they are stumbling across some they haven't found earlier. But I mean again you here and there. Yeah, but you have to think about the scope, right, Yeah, we've had if there if some of these states have been having mail in ballots for over a month. I mean, I don't know how often you spent you step foot

into your local city hall or county government building. You know, they're often sort of these older buildings where they're sort of workers who are crammed on top of each other and filing cabinets and in them closets in the basement, right, and if you're getting stacks and stacks of mail, it sometimes gets shoved aside if it was back September thirty when you got this match. So it's it's a sort of all the kinks in the process working themselves out at this stage as we're trying to you know, the

perfect problems are just magnifying everything. Yeah. Yeah, you don't have the staff in the building who are processing these ballots are looking at them with that sort of regularity in sight. Now, absolutely, I think, I think, But but I think you're right, you've exactly had the nail in the head that there hasn't been sort of an allegation of sort of widespread fraud. Right, we don't see any

sort of evidence that there's someone's cooking the book somewhere. Um, you know, maybe we'll find an isolated incident or two well after election day, but so far the process, I think you're right. The local officials take it very seriously and want to do the right thing. And let's remember, you know, for many states, you know, mail in ballots, they've been doing this for years, so they do have

those systems in place to be fair. Though the sheer volume of the mail in ballots, uh this year has certainly been something that I think a lot of folks weren't necessarily used to. So, Uh, the counting continues. We're gonna get back to this discussion in just a moment. Do you want to remind everyone it is a Fed Thursday, wrapping up a meeting today, the Federal Reserve keeping policy

steady rates on hold asset buying unchanged. Having said that, we're just about forty minutes away from the closing bail on this Thursday, and equities bouncing around a little bit, but pretty steady and just off their highs of the session. That accounts to or that amounts to about a two percent gain on the S and P five hundred Dow Jones Industrial Average up five hundred forty six points, also up almost two percent, and the NASDAC definitely uh the outperformer.

The NASDAC up point than three hundred points, good for a gain of two point six per cent. Alright, let's

get back to our discussion. So, Derek Mueller, I mean, if you could change anything that to make this a more secure process so that we don't necessarily have this legal wrangling um or legal questions in the future, what would we need to do because I think having brought up a really smart, an important point that as we try to keep our elections secure, that maybe they are more secure you know by the states, you know, really overseeing these processes. But it does create then a multitude

of systems right in the process. So how could we make it better and safer maybe or more uh reassuring if you will, on a legal basis. Yeah, I think there's a few things for us to think about going forward, and I would hope you know. The problem is they're they're sort of the bipartisan efforts, but they often get swallowed up in the partisan efforts as Congress wants to do sort of what their side wants, whether it's a

voter I D or or you know, whatever it might be. UM. I think first, you know, despite the fact that there's this decentralization, the Election Assistance Commission with the Department of Homeland Security and and UH, Director of National Intelligence and others have really worked very hard to help think about making sure that our critical systems infrastructure in the United States is secure, that it's going to be resilient in

the phase of attack. That they're certifying election systems and ensuring that while states have choices, their choices within sort of a suite or a variety of options. So I think that's that's one important thing to think about going forward, whether that there should be some maybe more uniformity, but really more just sort of oversight to ensure that the states are doing this appropriately. Another thing is we think about the sort of ballot processing thing with with you know,

these states. You know, one of the problems that happened is especially in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, you had Republican legislatures with Democratic governors really fighting fighting a lot about about this process, including the process of UM processing ballots ahead of election day. States like Florida after two thousand really got their act together. They they they let up, you know, uh, clerks start looking at the ballots early, not not to count them, just to make sure that the voters are

eligible and that the signatures match and everything right. That was good. I mean, if you saw Governor Jeb Bush tweeted out, you know, yesterday that he was glad they

got their act together and fixed things. Um. So I think, you know, I think there might be a place in the United States to think about some of these little tweaks about you know, maybe encouraging states because Congress has robust authority both in terms of giving states cash to run elections and in its elections authority for congressional elections to say you should start, you know, opening in the non envelopes, you know, the Friday before the election, Like

that's a that's a standard we're going to put in place. And I think some of these standards could be non controversial bipartisan solutions. Um. There's just going to be a question of whether there there's an appetite for that in Washington, d C. So I heard some people say, I don't remember where it came from. I can't give anyone credit that the postmark, the postmark, that smudge is going to be the hanging chat of the elections. Have you seen that, because that can be a factor in a lot of

these states. Yeah. And even more to the point, the one case that you know still lingering before the Supreme Court is out of Pennsylvania, where they would accept those ballots postmarked on election Day up through tomorrow Friday, but

also those ballots that don't have a postmark at all. Right, Um, I think rethinking how the Postal Service handles ballots, and not just in volume, but in terms of the speed of delivery and so on is another sort of pressing concern for the next Postmaster General or for Congress and its oversight function. Um. You know, Congress had some hearings where they sort of dragooned the Postmaster General that to

sort of fight about this stuff late summer. Um, there's a federal jodge in Washington, d C. Who's sort of been micromanaging the Postal Service sort of on a day by day basis. Um. You know, those are not long term solutions and they're not sort of in the benefit of the national interest. Right, So I'm not a postal service expert, far from it, but it is something I think that will require a little bit of oversight, you know, going forward. Yeah, well that's for sure you might have

to become one maybe maybe. Alright, good to leave it on that now, Derek, thank you so much. I'll appreciated. Derek Muller, Professor of Law, University of Iowa College of Law, joining us on the phone from Iowa City, Iowa. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser from Bloomberg Radio. Well, this election, once again we saw a Democratic presidential candidate collecting more popular votes than his Republican opponent. We know it's not over yet, where of course contingent and watching

what happens when it comes to the electoral college. But when it comes to the popular vote, you know, it kind of begs a question, why can't Republicans win that popular vote? Writing about it is Bloomberg opinion columnist Jonathan burst Bernstein. He kind of asked that question in his latest column. He covers and writes about politics and policy. He's taught about it at the University of Texas and

San Antonio. He joins us on the phone from San Antonio, Texas. Jonathan, good to have you here with Kevin and June and myself. First of all, give us some history when it comes to the popular vote and Republicans. Well, Democrats have now won the popular and you're gonna, I expect you're gonna hear a lot of this from Democrats in the next several weeks. Um. From up through this year, Democrats have won the popular vote in all but one time, seven out of eight, which is the best streak anybody, any

party has ever had in US history. So it's it's pretty impressive in just on the raw note numbers itself, when you look at them more carefully. One of the things I said in the column is, you know, it sort of breaks down a little bit. Some of them they weren't weren't a lot of runaway wins as there were forced a Republicans during the Reagan Bush era, Nixon

Reagan era, UM. And you know, had Democrats taken the presidency, say in in two thousand, one hour or one a very very narrow popular vote margin, they might well have lost it, say in eight, and you might have had a couple of big Republican wins. So one thing I'm

saying is it may not be all that it really seems. So, Jonathan, are you saying that, what's your opinion about whether the presidential vote, because of the elector all vote, it doesn't match the popular vote, and whether there should be changes in the system so that the popular vote does mirror who the president is. Well, it's a great question because you know, traditionally in the United States history, there hasn't been this split that we saw in the when Trump

got elected. Um, usually the winner of the electoral college is the winner of the popular vote. It's only happened a handful of time, however, two of those were fairly recent in two thousand. Even then, though in two thousand it was basically a tie both ways, so there wasn't that much of a thing there. Um, it looks like this time the electoral college is probably gonna wind up on the same side as the popular vote. So you know, it makes a lot of people like a big fuss

about it. There's a good case to be made that we shouldn't have the electoral college, but most of the time it doesn't actually make that big difference. So in terms of where things go though, and I just want to catch everybody up to speed, because we have we do have some some new developments. According to CBS News, CBS is reporting that Jared Kushner is looking for there to be some type of spokesperson for the president's legal team, akin to James Baker, that they're looking for and we

should also know. And I think this is really important folks to keep in mind as we have these conversations about the legal cases, as we also have these cases they have the conversation about the electoral college, is that, in essence, one of the president's entire strategy right now is dependent upon whether or not this thing comes down to one or two states. Right now, it's there's a

handful of states where the votes haven't been counted. Whether it's Arizona, Americopa County, which has been trending left and some networks have called for the Democrats. If it's out in Arizona, uh there, it's coming down to Clark County. But you've also got North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania. And if it if it sounds a little bit discombobulate, discombobulated, it's because it is. And when I talk to sources Jonathan

burn Steen on the president's reelection campaign. They're not even right now all speaking from the same talking points or from the same legal playbook because they don't know which specific lawsuit in order to come down with. So how is that muddying the waters of the president's argument? Just from an analytical standpoint, not a political one, and analytical standpoint about why there's so much confusion right now around the president's strategy. And Jonathan just got about a minute here,

that's pretty simple. There is no strength to the president's legal argument. There just isn't. Um. You know, the votes are proceeding normally. Um, this is how it's supposed to work in many cases, for example Pennsylvania. It's working slowly because Republicans set it up to work slowly. But the truth is, at the end of the day, the president doesn't really have much legal case, and if the states go the way it looks like they will, it's he's not going to have a very practical chance, even if

the courts were very generous to him. Maybe that's why Rudy Giuliani is making the statements for the legal team

instead of Baker. Yeah, I mean the other half of this is that the president seems to be doing his legal close election strategy the same way, the same sort of half asked away he does policy in the White House, So you know that's what you get, Hey, Jonathan, I want to pick up on something Um Kevin mentioned, and we were talking about just the inability of really even the Republican Party to kind of all be on the same page. And I wonder, And we've got a story

coming up a little bit later on. It's the cover of the magazine about Trump is Um and just Donald Trump's impact on politics and the Republican Party. No matter what happens in terms of the White House, it's here to stay. But I do wonder about the inability of maybe all Republicans to kind of feel the same way

about the direction of the party impacts that popular vote. Well, you know what I would say is hurting the party more than anything else, is that the president's um that they've had have had a real difficult time staying popular because they've had a real difficult time governing. You know, if you look at Donald Trump, he's been below water for four years in his approval ratings. The last pub looking president before that, George W. Bush, was briefly very

very popular after the September eleventh of text. Let them spent the last four five years of his administration, of his two terms underwater, he was able to win re election. We have the majority of the popular vote, only one who's done it. But he still was unpopular. So you know, Republican presidents have been unpopular their last nine years in office. If you add in the last year of the first

George Bush, they've been unpopular for I don't know. I got to interrupt though, because he's got approval rating with Republicans, Jonathan, I mean, the president held together the Republican Party, so I hear you on the sense. I mean, look, he you know, it's it's still he he has a very real chance of losing re election. But Republicans picked up

seven seats in the House. Mitch McConnell, we were all talking, Oh is Amy McGrath gonna upset Mitch McConnell on track would potentially be the lead d of the of the Senate again. Lindsey Graham won re election. JOONI earns despite Trump, but I gotta I gotta tell you this is such

and I gotta really be candid here. When I talked to Republicans This conversation that we're having is totally divorced from I'm gonna say reality, because there are so many Republicans that I talked with who say, even if President Trump doesn't win re election, that the way he's changed this party on trade policy, on manufacturing, on foreign policy has totally He is the new Republican establishment, whether people like it or not. And that's just the fact that

made me true. That's that's separate from the question of is he popular among the population at large? And the truth is he isn't. And you know, he wasn't in sixteen managed to fluke out of electrical college vote win. Anyway, he isn't in He's gonna wind up losing by a larger majority in the on the popular vote. And you know, he is really popular among the Republican Party. They had

huge turnout this time. That's to his credit. But you know, at least that shows that he's very popular within his party. But beyond sort of that group, you know, yes, he's very popular with his strong supporters. Beyond that, not so much. Jonathan, what's your take on let's say Trump loses the election, will he go away? Will he leave the political scene or will he continue to dominate the Republican Party. You

know that you have to get inside somebody's heads. So I don't know that any of us can answer that. I do think that it's absolutely true there he has very very strong supporters. So if he wants to, he very well could you know, be the dominant voice in the Republican Party for the next four years um, assuming he loses, and he very well could run for the presidency again and perhaps even get the nomination. That is very hard to help because it mostly depends on what

he himself decides to do. Is he is that what he wants to do with his life at you know, his care an age in the current situation, or not. And it's very hard to tell. If it's not him, there'll be somebody who, you know, there'll be a series of people, some of whom will sound more or less like him. But I don't think anybody's gonna sound exactly like Donald Trump. But I think it's I think it's

really interesting in the sense. But and I know people who are listening are gonna, you know, don't swerve off the road. But I think what the Republican Party is going to have to decide and I don't want to get too far in hypotheticals while people are still counting votes. But regardless of any time a presidential nominee loses the election, will the same thing happen to Donald Trump what happened to Hillary Clinton, which was there was a freezing out

of Hillary Clinton. And and I think it's going to be more difficult for Republicans to really do this, especially when you look at a key battleground state like Florida that Trump won, Ohio which he won and and look, I mean there's an argument to be made that again, he was able to defeat the Bush contingency of the Publican Party in the primary, and so he's in there. He's in there to stay. I just I don't see him going away, based upon my reporting for the past

several years, I do not see it. Folks. He's getting old, though, Ken, I mean, your sons are his sons are his daughter is different. That's a different story now that that's a good question. I mean, Jonathan, Jonathan, do you see a kind of a Trump political legacy here or or or you know what? I think one of the key variables is and it's it's something we don't know is what will conservative Republican aligned media do if Trump, you know, assuming Trump loses, which is what it looks like going

to happen. Um, will they decide to give him and his family and his strongest you know, his former White House eights and all that their platform or are they're going to move on? And I think that that has to do with some individuals and what they think, and has to do with some profit questions with various media outlets, and you know, I think, yeah, that's who The key variable is not so much the politicians, not so much rank and file Republicans, but the people who make Republican

aligned media. What are they going to think? Because he's been a money maker for them, they may stick with him, but they may also decide to move on. It's hard to tell. It's gonna be interesting to see what the progressive media does as well, especially you know, when you've got it should bide and ultimately when I mean, how do they cover AO see, how do they cover the

far left and the democratic socialist movement? I don't think we know that, Carol, No, I don't think we know that either, right and time will certainly tell on that. I also do think it's interesting and kind of provocative, I know, reading in this morning, Kevin, I don't know if you saw a June or Jonathan. You know this whole idea that if indeed President Trump doesn't get a second term, now does he come back in four years? Right?

Which is which is? Which is a possibility. I mean, we are definitely living in interesting times, and I do wonder about what is the soul of the Republican Party because I agree with you, Kevin that, I mean there's been nobody like it feels like Donald Trump, who has

really kind of riled up the base. Yeah, and then I mean, I just keep going back to approval rating amongst the about all the Republicans he's lost though, Kevin, think about the Lincoln Project and all these died in the wool Republicans who have turned against the party because of him. But it's interesting to look at them turn out and just see how many have been riled up and how many have come who hadn't maybe voted for years,

that showed up. I'm sorry, Kevin. Yeah, And I'll just say I think I think that we've we talked a lot about the Republicans, but there's no question Democrats are going to have some party reconciliation to do as well. All right, gotta leave it there, um, Jonathan. Thank you so much, Bloomberg opinion columnist Jonathan Bernstein. Check out his latest column. He can find it on the Bloomberg terminal,

of course, always at Bloomberg dot com. Joining us on the phone from San Antonio, Texas, Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or at Bloomberg dot com, and be sure to check out our daily radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. And be sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg. Well we'