This is Bloomberg Business Wait Inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus gloom O Business Finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio Weekend, Get Up, Weekend, Walk Up.
This Indeed, we can work it out, and it feels like the economy, or maybe the Fed monetary policy kind of working its way out on the US economy because we definitely, as we just talked about with Katie and Romaine, definitely seeing things maybe slowing down.
Right, Tim, let's talk about what we saw this morning. Non farm payrolls. You know, the numbers by now increasing two one hundred and fifty thousand last month. It was less than expected. And then you got the revision for last month, Carol, which is an important one, revised down to two hundred and ninety seven thousand. The unemploymentry climate
of three point nine percent, monthly wage growth slowing. If you're Jay Powell, if you're the Federal Reserve saying everything is kind of moving in the direction that I wanted to.
It's hi fi buying everybody on the FFC.
It's kind of weird because the unemployment rate is going up in fewer people, great jobs run expected, So we.
Talk about bad news good news for the markets. So let's get to it, because it does look like a
cooling of the US labor market. However, it is a month's report our Steve Matthew writing about it, and he says, though what looks like a cooling US job market gives a Fed a little bit of room to keep interest rates maybe on hold in December, which would be the last meeting of the year, and reinforcing market views at the UESS Central Bank is done with the most aggressive hiking campaign in for decades.
It's been quite a ride in the last year. Steve is with US now.
He is Bloomberg News Economics reporter. He's on Zoom out there in our Atlanta bureau where Mike is Mike mcke's getting ready to talk to the Atlanta Fed President. Also with US as our former colleague who is now the senior US economist at BNP Parry Bap Yolena Schaletieva.
She's on Zoom in New York City.
But I kind of want to start with you Today's US jobs and Services data is that it can we say the FED.
Done raising rates?
I think so this is the kind of the data that will make a FED comfortable to be patient at the upcoming meeting and beyond. At the same time, it's not falling off a cliff, so that should provide them some comfort to stay on hold for quite some time and wait until inflation slows down. So I think that is kind of a Goldilock scenario for the FED. You know, in their expectations for a soft blending sterio, this is the type of the report that they would like.
So done done in the next move is going to be a cut in your view? Or is it done done? And will wait a little bit and just see or you think done done?
I think I think that you know, at the US conference, I think Powell was trying to persuade the markets that they had done without saying it, of course, and keeping the tightening bias in place, But if you read between the lines, that's what he was trying to say.
I think Steve Matthews, come on in here, do you agree with you, Elena that this is the kind of data that will make the FED comfortable keeping rates steady for quite a while and it could be the last rate hike at least in this cycle.
I absolutely agree. I mean, this is if the FED was making up numbers and trying to figure out what would be good numbers for the kind of outcome that they're looking for, they would come to exactly this kind of thing. I mean, they want to see unemployment, the unemployment rate just very slightly gradually up. They believe four percent unemployment is full employment. So and they believe that the labor market has been overheating, and they want to
see a slight cooling off but nothing dramatic. And this is a slight cooling off but not traumat and you're seeing wage skeins that are coming down a little bit, so the pressure is coming off the labor market. Powell said on Wednesday, wanted to see rebalancing. You know, there's a lot of evidence in here that you're seeing that rebalancing.
So you know, we're having Rafael Bostick into our office in a few minutes, and you know, in some ways he could be doing a victory dance today because it's like he's been saying since the first half of the year, stop, you know, we've done enough, uh, and let's go on an extended pause. And and we you know, the the the monetary policy works with a lag, and that seems
to be you know, the outcome that we're seeing. So while other FED officials are very likely to say, you know, don't rule out additional cuts, we still have the possibility that we're going to go higher. It certainly seems like, you know, absent there being some really bad surprise inflation, that they're likely done.
When you said don't rule out, you meant further increases, right.
Not cut exactly exactly.
They're not. They're not looking at Coutson. In fact, you know, I think you know until you get into the middle of part of next year that they are pretty committed to staying on hold and not moving lower until you get to inflation either at two percent or very close moving in that direction.
Right, We did see FED SWAP's price the first rate cut by June meeting versus July prior, so a little bit of a move up in terms of.
How traders are seeing it.
So, Elena, are you guys starting to put out research that says, Okay, we're gonna get a recut come June or you're gonna wait on that one.
Well, we we do have that in our baseline projection, so we have the first rate cut in June and then a one percentage point of cuts in the remainder of next year. I just wanted to add a little bit to what Steve was saying in terms of Chair Powell mentioning the supply side story and how the labor market is coming back into balance. I think while this report was a No K report for the FAT, it does throw some cold water on that argument about the supply side of the economy coming back. It does show
some vulnerabilities on the demand side. You see a significant slowing in retail transportation and this is going into the holiday season, so things are slowing. Hiring is slowing in this important part of the economy. Leisure hospitality spike during the summer months was indeed temporary, and that is slowing down. We see diffusion index declining to cyclical law. That tells you that the breath of job hiring is also shrinking.
So I would be cautious. This kind of number is a good number, but that shows some vulnerabilities in the economy going into the ur end.
Okay, so it's kind of Carol's in contrast, where We heard from Chrissy Taylor over at Enterprise last week in terms of right, she was pretty up not just on the consumer, but also on the signs that she's getting from enterprises, trucking, leasing, business in the truck the you know, the tracking that they do, which is kind of puliar.
It was kind of peculiar. Steve Matthews coming back in here and give us an idea of what could actually prompt the FED to cut rates next year, Like, what are the economic signals that you're looking for for a rate hike in the middle of the year.
I think there's a rate cut. Excuse me, yeah, exactly. I think there's a view at the FED that you know, as inflation comes down, real interest rates wide. I mean essentially, you know, if inflation moves down to two percent and you have the FED fun trade at five and a half percent, that's three and a half percent gap. And so as as inflation comes down, you're seeing monetary policy tight.
So really, I think the figures that are most important in terms of when they're going to cut is when inflation comes down, because they didn't they at some point they're not going to want to see additional monetary policy tightening and they view, you know, real rights as an important signal.
Yeah, and I'm curious about, you know, just watching some of those sentiment numbers that we will get next week too, because you know how people feel about their situation, and we've been certainly doing surveys here at Bloomberg of individuals.
What they're concerned about is, yeah, they might be working, but they're paying a heck of a lot for everything, or they're paying more for their car, you know, loan or lease if you will, loan, I guess in particular, or they're paying more on their mortgage, or they can't even get into a mortgage. All right, So, Yolena, what is the number one thing on your radar?
Let's say, for the next week or so.
We'll be watching the Senior Loan Office survey coming out on Monday. The FED had the data at their meeting this week. And things are not easy. So, you know, lending conditions are tightening, and all of the things that you mentioned, Carol, you know, consumers looking at car loans, buying a car at a higher interest rate. Those things will be reflected in that survey, and you know, further deterioration in lending standards I think is relevant to what the FED is going to do next.
Same question to you, Steve, what's you got? You know, Raphael Bostak coming up. I don't know if that's top of mind right now in terms of what, but tell me what's kind of top of mind for you.
Bostic is definitely top of mind for me, since he's now in the office, and.
What would you ask him just thirty seconds?
What would you what would be.
Well, the same question you would ask, which is you know, what's going to cause cuts? Now that it seems like that we may have have peaked. But I think besides the SLEW survey, which I agree entirely is going to be interesting on Monday, Uh, there's a ton of Fed speak and it's like how they interpret the data, how they interpret what's happening with the financial markets. And you know, there was financial market tightening in advance of the meeting.
Now we are seeing some loosening. I mean the yields are down, and it's like, you know, how do they view that. You have Chris Waller, you have some others who are speaking Bostic and Barking next week, so there'll be plenty to listen to you yeah, we'll.
See there's one narrative or multiple.
Bloomberg News economics reporter of course joining us there in Atlanta, and then you'll landish a Lakeva.
Thank you so much.
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As we promised, we have got a few perspectives on the US labor market. We heard from Steve Matthews at Bloomberg News and Juliam Sheil Yateevo. Yeah, here's another perspective. We got Julia Pollock, chief economist at zip Recruiter, joining us from Los Angeles. Just a quick recap for those who haven't been following all day. The data series showed job growth slowing by more than expected, Carol, and the unemployment rising to an almost two year high three point
nine percent. Monthly wage growth slowed two bad news, good.
News, Yeah exactly.
And I know you and I both have gotten a peek at Julia's research over at ZipRecruiter, and I feel like it's going to mesh with some of what we got from the government this morning. Julia, good to have you back with us on business week. Are you seeing signs at the job market here in the United States is cooling?
We are seeing lots of science and all the key indicators in this job's report point in that direction. The decline in working hours, the slow down and wage growth, the uptick in the unemployment rate, particularly for younger workers. These all suggest that demand for labor is slackening. I mean that household survey was very weak this month. That said,
you know, the weakness in payrolls may be overstated. We have to keep in mind that the UAW strike was in full swing during the reference week of the survey, and that's since been resolved, were partly resolved, And actually there were strikes across the economy and in all kinds of industries, with ninety six thousand people absent from work due to to strikes, the highest number since nineteen ninety seven.
So if you add all those workers back in and then maybe take away about forty thousand for the average revision that we've seen so far this year, with eight out of nine reports being revised downwards, you know that brings you to a number that is around two hundred and thirty thousand. Still a slowdown, not terrible.
A slowdown to two hundred and thirty thousand would be significantly higher than the one had undred and eighty thousand that economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected, and maybe they took into the into account the strikes that were happening. Julie, I guess are you saying that perhaps? And look, I know you're a labor economist, so you're not focused on what's going on in the equity and the bond markets
right now. But would you suggest that the celebrations are a little early in terms of a soft landing here?
No, No, I think I think the bulk of the data in both the Establishment survey and the household survey came in week So in the establishment survey, you have working hours, overtime hours, you have the wage growth numbers. Those are all pretty weak. I mean, wage growth over the last three months at an annualized rate has been
just three point two percent. Economists think that three point five percent would be consistent with two percent inflation, right, because workers should get a two percent boost to make them whole for inflation. Plus another one point five percent boost a year to account for productivity growth and PRODUCTIVIY growth is looking good at the moment. That figure was over four percent four point nine percent by the last quarter, So.
Which might explain what that.
Maybe we're all working, Maybe I don't know, harder better, I don't know, and then maybe there isn't that.
Need to hire.
But I wonder what I want to ask you is, Juliet, there was such a feeling of labor hoarding. We talked about it a lot of coming out of the pandemic. People didn't want to let go of workers because it was so hard to get a worker.
Is that kind of going a way?
No, it doesn't appear to be. And the latest Jolts report layoffs was still very low. And what you see is that we're kind of in a low turn state right now, with employers reluctant to lay workers off, worried about how expensive and food will be to replace them, but also quits kind of back to normal, and workers no longer feeling as confident about quitting their jobs, no
longer as confident that they'll find better ones. So everyone's sort of shelter in place, and as a result, hires are low, and the reason that job agains are still so positive is more because the rate at which the water's going out of the bathtub has slowed, not so much that we're bringing in a lot of new people into the land market.
Do you think employers are back in the driver's seat.
So we just released a report on our new research website, zippergruterresearch dot org about what is going on for new hires and job switchers, and we found that across pretty much every measure of leverage and bargaining power that we track, they have lost considerable power in the last month. I mean in the last quarter. The share who got a signing bonus fell to eighteen percent from twenty eight percent. The share who got a raise when they switched jobs
fell meaningfully. The share who when they quit their job got a call from their old employer saying we need you to stay. We'll match your outside offer, we'll counter that fell meaningfully. Workers are no longer being fought over as such a hot commodity.
Interesting, So is it where we were pre pandemic, right before the pandemic or a little bit weaker. I don't know what's your read on it. You're talking with companies. You guys are working with companies too. How would you describe it? Give me a couple of adjectives to describe how you think the labor market is right now in the United States.
Sure so.
My read on it is that things are a little bit weaker than they were right before the pandemic. Working hours at thirty four point three are at the very low end of the range that we typically see in good economic times. Wage growth, it is a little tepid, given how high inflation is. The real wage growth is
not so great for workers. There's still lots of opportunities out there, but workers are finding it's taking them a little bit longer, a couple more applications to get offers, and the offers they get are not quite as attractive as what they grew used to the last two years.
What about when it comes to workers saying, you know, I don't want to go into the office five days a week. I want to work from home a little bit. Maybe not coming on Fridays or Mondays. Read the room, baby, read the Wednesday Thursday sounds good for sitting in my chair all day. What's the read you get on that?
At ZipRecruiter so about eleven percent of job postings are still remote. That's up from about three percent before the pandemic. So remote work is here to stay.
How many look it seems low because sixty percent of job seekers would prefer to get a remote job, and you really have about sixty percent of all the workers competing over about ten eleven percent of the job postings.
So there is a big mismatch between demand and supply of remote work opportunities.
That's it.
We did a survey of employers recently and we did find that more had pulled back on their remote work policies than expanded remote work. But even so, very few had gone back to the five day in office work week. So the five day in office work week is effectively dead. Very few companies are requiring people in the office five days a week. Flexibility is the name of the game.
Well, pretty interesting, no doubt about it. Yeah, it's just interesting to see some of the trends that are out there because we certainly see more and more people coming back, right or.
I'll tell you that Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays on the subway are very crowded. Thursdays and Friday's.
Not so much.
I thought about that this morning, coming through World Trade, I'm like, Okay, there's no crowd.
Like I can kind of walk through it.
Really great stuff and we so appreciate getting time to check in with you, Julia Pollock, take care and have a great week. And chief economist eferent Zip recruiter on zoom in Los Angeles, I have to say, going through kind of their surveys and stuff to see things starting to tick down in terms of hours worked, wage growth, like really kind of meshing so well and so strongly with the jobs report this morning.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business App, and YouTube. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Well, one of our most read stories on the Bloomberg Today, no doubt about it. We got the verdict last night. We're talking about the case of Sam Bankmin freed convicted of a massive fraud that led to the collapse of his FDx exchange. Following a month long trial that pitted the testimony of the former crypto king against some of his closest friends.
It was that happened fast, Carol, It did happen fast. I mean, think about how long Elizabeth Holmes was sort of in limbo before sentencing, and he hasn't been sentenced yet.
But no, this berdict came down pretty quickly.
Very quickly. Yeah, BigMan freed. For those kids catching up. He was found guilty of seven counts of fre conspiracy after Jersey and Manhattan deliberated for fewer than five hours on Thursday. He faces as many as twenty years in prison on each of the most serious charges. Judge Lewis Kaplan set the sentencing date in late March.
All right, so let's get to our weekly check on the crypto market. Thoughts on the trial, the verdict, the future legal woes to come, maybe for others in the industry. With us, as Bloomberg News legal reporter Ava Benny Morrison, she's been following SBF's trial in Lower Manhattan throughout. She is on Zoom in New York City, and also with US is Stephen mcclerk. He's chief investment officer of the
financial services firm Valkyrie Investments. Former managing director at Guggenheim Partners, where he was focusing on fixed income and private equity. Heat is on zoom from Nashville, Tennessee. Hey A, I want to start with you.
What a month. I believe you got married in the middle of it too, But is that right?
Congratulations? Congratulations, not great timing, but what you're covering right now. But I think the wedding.
Is like I'm going down the aisle, going to but anyway, so quick, quick verdict.
It felt like was it night?
Talk to us about your kind of the process and then the verdict coming down so quickly and what ultimately happened.
Very quick verdict. Actually, after the jury started their deliberation just afternoon, at about quarter past three, we were taking bets in the press room of when the jury would come back, and I actually bet that it was going to be last night. So I think someone owes me lunch for that. But it was a very quick turnaround. They had a couple of notes early in the evening. The judge had said that they could stay if they
wanted to and deliberate until eight pm last night. They decided to they were going to have dinner, get a car, uber or a lift home, and they submitted a couple of questions jury notes, asking for highlighters and post it notes. They also asked for transcripts of certain testimony from institutional investors at FTX, so we thought maybe they might be in for the long haul. But then with about twenty minutes to eight pm, the eightpm deadvine, they came back with another note saying.
That they'd reached a verdict.
It was a little bit frantic in the actual courtroom because people weren't really expecting it. At that point, n was sort of moving around Josh for a seat, and then all the lawyers, the prosecutors, and of course Sam himself and his.
Parents walked in.
What was Sam's reaction when the judge or the jury, I don't know who read this. We don't have cameras in there. You were in there. What was his reaction when he heard the verdict?
Sam was very still when he was sitting at the bar table between his two lawyers. Usually he's sort of bouncing his knee around and you can see him fidgeting a little bit, but last night he was dead still, almost like a statute. The judge asked him to stand and face the jury. The jury four person read out the guilty verdicts one by one, saying guilty seven times. He kept his eyes down, looking at the floor most of the time. His hands were in front of him,
and he was completely unemotional. He looked almost a little bit sorry, almost a little bit shell shot, and before sitting down again. His parents, though, were completely strat so they were sitting on the bench in front of me in the court room comforting.
On imagine it was quite steven.
Come on in on the conversation. You know, how do you think this trial might potentially impact the crypto market and the interest of it as an investment or means of transaction. What might be a longer term impact if any.
Yeah, well, thanks for having me, Carolyn tim. My initial reaction was, you know, we're glad that this is finally behind us, because the FTX situation and all the other related issues has had a really broad negative impact on the industry for about the last eighteen months. You know, we weren't immune to the damage either, despite not having any kind of relationship to those companies. And now that we finally have a verdict, I feel like investor confidence
in the crypto market will start rising. Again, you know, we're already seeing confidence coming back to the markets. Usually when there's a fraud, it can affect any market segment. But when justice is served, which which was served yesterday, and we'll finally get the you know, the final verdict later, there's usually a relief and a relief rally comes with that and a recognition that the next fraud is going to be harder to pull off and that criminals will get caught.
Bitcoin's actually down a little bit about eight tens of percent today. I mean, I know it's one day, but just saying.
Yeah, Steven, can you talk a little bit about the damage that you guys experienced as a result of not just this trial, but of the downfall of FTX to referred to it, But what specifically did you see at Valkyrie.
Yeah, you know, over really the last two calendar years. And it didn't start with FTX. It started with with Celsius and Voyager and a couple of other block fives another good example, and then and the pinnacle was really FTX. But we really saw less flows coming in, whether it's through ETFs or whether it's through hedge funds that you know, we manage each so so we really did see flows start to dry up, and when the FTX trials started coming around earlier this summer, we did begin to see
flows coming back to the market. So it really was a case of investors sentiment saying, you know, I don't want to touch that market for a little bit until we understand really what's going on. Market's like certainty, and I think they wanted to have certainty that it wasn't a crypto problem, rather it was a fraud and criminal problem.
So all right, So Ava, how are you kind of thinking about the crypto world from a league prospective loonel Laurent Laurent Trel has a Bloomberg opinion Colum out and he says SBF will be the last crypto mergal behind bars. So there are other cases in litigation out there.
Yeah, do the Bloomberg quiz this week, Carol. It's a nice hint for a.
Question on there that is very true.
So are you anticipating that you're going to get ready for some other cases to be following.
Yes, definitely. In Federal court in Manhattan, the prosecution, the prosecution office down here has made a big point of saying, you know, just because this was crypto and it was a new technology and new market. The fraud is the same. It doesn't matter what the vehicle is that's being used to perpetuate this fraud. So FTX was one of many
crypto companies that the Prosecution Office went after. We're also waiting to see what happens with Alex Nshinski, who was the founder of Celsius, Do Kwan, who was the founder of terror Form Labs, So it'll be interesting to see. I guess if you can take any lessons from what happened with FTX. Obviously, there was a lot of evidence in this case, and the prosecution was really blessed with having three insiders from sec freeds in a circle turning around and agreeing to be corporated.
Witnesses for them.
So what happens to them Eva, They will be sentenced.
They've sort of done their bit for the government and the judge will weigh up just how valuable they were and then determine what their punishment would be. Gary, what those executives, just to refresh your brand's memories were, Gary Wong, the co founder of FTX, Caroline Ellison, who is the CEO of allowing me to research and Nashad Singh who
was the engineering chief at ftxy'. They all had corporation agreements with government and gave evidence and they were saying, we're hoping we don't get jail time from this, so we'll have to wait and see.
Steven got about a minute left here. What would you like to see in terms of GOV oversight or rules or a greater transparency in a crypto world?
Yeah, you know, I don't think it's necessarily an issue with with crypto and I also don't know if there's necessarily, you know, investor protections, additional investor protections that need to take place here. The bottom line is, sophisticated investors were fooled here. We just happen to be fortunate enough to have a really stubborn and risk focused team when we were engaging with with counterparties like Celsius and FTX and decided not to engage with them because they didn't fulfill
our process of due diligence. And I think what happened is, you know, anytime that there's a new market and there's height around that market and people making money, it does create a bit of fomo and people forget their process. People forget their their their their past learnings, whether it was learnings from Ron or learnings from made Off. I mean I was. I was a credit analyst looking at Greece when and the Greek Death Crisis came about and
avoided it. So we avoided these issues. And I think people just have to remember that you follow a process, you're due diligence, and you make sure that you mitigate risk.
Stephen mcclug, thank you so much.
Over at Valkyrie, of course our own Ava Benny Morrison covering the trial for us.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Well, the numbers, Carol, are not pretty. Less than a quarter of two ninety two point four million tons of municipal solid waste read trash that was generated back in twenty eighteen was recycled. That's according to the latest figures from the US EPA. Actually, it's kind of more than I thought it would be Yeah, so that's you know.
Yeah, twenty five percent.
Yeah, it would be less to be less, but there's a long way to go.
Yeah, and our next guest actually thinks we can do a lot better. Keith Harrison is the founder and CEO of The Recycling Partnership. It's an industry funded nonprofit that advocates for improving recycling infrastructure and accessibility. The Recycling Partnership says it over the last eight years, it's diverted seven hundred and seventy million pounds of new recyclables from landfills, which has avoided more than six hundred and seventy thousand
metric tons of greenhouse gases. And Keith joins us on Zoom from Washington, DC.
That's legit. That's a lot of a lot of greenhouse gases that have been avoided. Keith, thanks so much for joining us. Excited to have you with us this afternoon. I love talking about recycling because I think that there are so many composting Now I'm composting, got the garbage
disposal to separating. You know, here in New York, we had to separate everything into you know, it's not single stream, but one thing that Carol and I were surprised to learn recently is specifically about plastics and to what extent plastics are not actually recyclable in this day and age. So I want to start there and then we'll get to what's going on with America Recycles Day a little later in the month.
Sounds good, sounds good. Thanks for having me in today. Glad to talk about this. If you want to go out to dinner afterwards. Composting also a favorite topic.
Okay, that's awesome. Well, we got plenty of time, so talk to us about talk to us about what's going on with plastics right now, because a lot of people have this misconception that if they recycle it, then it just gets reused and made into something else, which is beautiful.
And if we see that thing on the bottom that like circular, we think, okay, cares about the number in there exactly?
Well, yeah, you know what. There's been a lot of recycling has been in the news a lot lately, and some of the stories are really depressing. And I want to start with the story of hope that it's not working exactly as we needed to, but we can fix this sucker, and then that then we'll have something else to talk about on the other side. So when we look at what's really happening with recycling today, we see a huge opportunity for improve We see that seven out
of ten cardboard boxes and up in the trash. That's very similar to seven out of ten PT bottles and glass bottles also end up in the trash. Is that fixable?
Yes?
What happens when we do even more carbon savings as you outlined. So the story on plastics, though, gets a little bit trickier because there are so many types of plastics one word, many different things. So you really have to understand the strata of opportunity so you can go after the easier to fix ones like yogurt cups and PT bottles, and then build a longer timeline for the stuff that's trickier, like plastic wrap, stuff like that.
Well, you know, we talk a lot about trash here, you.
Know, Carol talks a lot of trash. That's what happens.
I do that too, Sorry, guilty as charged, No, but I do wonder about you know, the impact of landfills and garbage in a year where climate change felt like it was, you know, thrust in front of our face. If you didn't believe it, Like you couldn't. You couldn't ignore some of the stuff that was going on, whether it was temperatures or fires or.
What have you.
Or you know, the skies over New York and the New York Metro turning orange. So landfills just remind everybody about the impact that they have on the environment.
Yes, landfills are purposely made to keep out air and sun and rain. We purposely cap them, We encapsulate them actually in plastic, to keep things from breaking down because when they break down without air, light and rain, it creates methane. That anaerobic state inside of a landfill creates methane. However, well, although the intent is to prevent things from breaking down,
they still do. And in fact, landfills are one of the biggest emitters of landfill of methane, which is one of our strongest and most potent greenhouse gases.
So we should all be composting, is what you're.
Saying back to the compost right, Yeah, Actually, food waste is The EPA just released a really good report about the role of food waste and organics. So banana peels and your yard trimming. Trimming is what happens when those in land and in landfill. But it's also you know, things have naturally break down, like fiber, paper products and things like that, so we have to be really careful before we casually toss something into a landfill because it is directly connected to the climate.
Well, I think people know this, this is the problem.
This is I was gonna say to you, like, if you go can California, don't you have like multiple cans like you have to do?
Yeah, And it's pretty amazing. I Mean every time I go back to see my parents in California, the can situation changes. And what's happened is the recycling can has gotten huge, the compost bin has gotten huge, the trash can has gotten tiny.
I love that.
There's so the that is the future.
That's incredible, right, And so what we're trying to work towards is instead of it just being like that in California or in New York City having really strong recycling programs, but it's a different way, we're trying to build harmonization. And so I get really interested in the role of policy to make it consistent from one place to another,
but to also level up that caliber of service. So that you can make sure you're composting, you can make sure that you're recycling as many different things as possible. We want old stuff to turn into new stuff so that it never hits that landfill. And the role of policy is a new tool that we're seeing on the US landscape to create a consistency. And I think that's where we're really going to see the most system change happen.
Well, and I do wonder too, what would be you know, one thing that we could all do better? Because in New Jersey it's like paper, plastic and glass and garbage.
So I just what can we all that hurts?
That hurts?
What can we all do to make it better?
Well, I think if you're trying to if you're traveling, especially as we come into the holidays and you're going from one place to another, check out recycle check dot org. This is a brand new tool we just launched, and it gets past this idea of can I recycle this where I am? It connects to the nine thousand different recycling programs that are in this country and allows you to very easily understand can I recycle this where I am? Now, this is a super duper tool the public can use it.
We're partnering with other tools and platforms so that people don't have to come for us for the data, but wherever they go to get their data, they can find that they're recycling information. It connects, We use AI technology. We are constantly updating it across the whole country, and I think this is really really cool. So you know your listeners who are thinking about this as they might be commuting home right now putting your home hat on.
It's helpful as you're traveling to visit family to know what's recyclable. But if you also run a bus that packages anything that might be waste or trash, this is a really cool tool for you too, because if you're doing work to green your product, it allows you to have consistent communication so that you know when you're there visiting your folks in California.
And thanks to think.
About going into the weekend.
Keith Harrison, thank you so much of the recycling partnership.
She is CEO and founder. This is Bloomberg.
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Sub London Front.
All right, everybody, the new issue Bloomberg Business Week. It is out on newsstands online at Bloomberg dot com, slash business Week on the Bloomberg In it a focus on this upcoming week's Bloomberg New Economy form November eighth through tenth in Singapore, annual gathering of world leaders to address the most pressing issues facing the global economy and so tim In the magazine, there are several stories getting into those issues.
Including from Wall Street to the World Bank, the one risk, the towers above all, and then a story about the company most known for making Apple's iPhones and the pivot that it wants to make here in the US. So let's get into it. We got the editor of the special New Economy coverage, Bloomberg Business Week, Global Economics Editor, Christina Lynn Bladd, joins us on zoom in New York City. Also with us is the editor of Bloomberg Business Week,
Joel Weber in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's Studio. Okay, so, Joel, I want to start with you and just talk about how you think about this issue in the context of the live event that's happening next week.
So we think about it in themes and there are themes that I think are present in the issue that will also be foundational parts of the conversations that happen in Singapore where the New Economy Form will be taking place. I don't get to be there for the record. I get to be here too. I get to represent with these stories.
You don't have to fly so far.
You know.
It was funny like they did email a colleague and the colleague was like, yeah, I'm still in the flight, and I was like, wait a second. He left. He left yesterday, So I think, look like talking about this right now, with what's happening in the world, that word risk comes up. We use it on the international cover
for the package. The thing that Eric Shatsker, who is one of the colleagues who's there, identified with this is when you talk to a CEO right now, or listen to transcripts from Earning, you know, all these Earning calls or some of the people who have spoken up in the last few weeks and months, geopolitics is the number one concern right now, and it is this massive risk that CEOs feel like they don't really have control, any
control over. It just sort of happens, and you're a victim of it and according to Eric's reporting, like that term politics has suddenly surged and become the risk that business leaders around the world are most concerned about. And no doubt that will be one of the biggest themes that come out of these conversations.
Yeah, you guys.
Eric mentions in his remarks and comments the world Fool CEO, who we talked about talk with too, and the concerns there. What's interesting is that in Eric in his article as column, he says, what makes you a political risk so vexing is that it defies modeling, right, so many different things financially we can model out this weekend, Christina, you oversaw this coverage is incredible.
The stories come on in on the.
Conversation, especially in terms of what Eric wrote in some of the other coverage.
Yeah, I think it's true. It is difficult to model. I mean everyone has been surprised think in the last couple of years by these these you know, these cold conflicts that have heated up again. That's been one thing that we've been seeing. But also new kinds of of of ruptures, you know, is supply chains being reshuffled by the US China, you know tensions, and that's one thing
that we tried to capture. For example, we tried to find countries that were sort of defined this kind of like you're with the you know, you're with us or against us kind of rhetoric that you see coming out of the US and to some extent China, and have instead sort of found a way to straddle you know, these these these fractures, you know, and and become kind
of like connectors, new connectors between flows of trade. And that's something that I think in the initial years that were struffling of these supply chains, it's going to be more costly, and I m F and other and central banks have flagged that, but I think over the long term it will benefit uh some countries. Is sort of if the flow of trade runs through more nations.
Okay, you're just like talking about it without talking about it.
So there's a term that came.
Up in the story connector economies. And I think Christina, what really fascinated me about this idea is that the world has been this US China dichotomy, like it's you're either in the US sphere of influence or the China one. But what in the current and Sean Donnan and others helped us illuminate here is that it's much more nuanced than that. So what are these connector economies and who are they?
Well for well, we've we've found we chose Poland, Mexico, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Morocco. And Mexico, for example, is a country where this year overtook China as the lead exporter to the US. But at the same time, in Mexico, China's imports, I'm sorry, Mexico's imports for China are growing really really fast, faster than it's exports to the US because Chinese companies are setting up chopped, I'm sorry, Chinese manufacturers are setting up shop along the border primarily to exports to the US
so they can sidestep Trump's tariffs. So that's one thing you're seeing, like, you know, yeah, So it's kind of like I think of it as like are US China economies delinking or are they just linking up in different places?
Yes, you know, and look who wins out of that is like a Mexico in that particular equation, right, So I think that's going to be a fastening dynamic. And I'm really interested to watch these five countries.
One story that I wanted to touch on was what's going on with fox Con. I love this storage.
Yeah, so this is a really interesting phone baker. Yeah, exactly.
So.
So it's amazing how much stuff in the world fox cont actually manufacturers. It's like, you know, touch your phone, probably an iPhone made by fox Con, not an iPhone, probably made.
By fox Con.
Look in your living room if it's a technology device, some sort of tech apparatus, probably made by by fox Conn. So we did this story in the issue that really I think is a fascinating one by read Stephenson. Fox Conn, also Taiwanese company, also recognizes that maybe we've reached saturation and what that smartphone market looks like, and their next
move looks like it might be into electric vehicles. And one of the places that they've acquired is the Lordstown Motors, this factory in Ohio, and they are already overhauling that factory to perhaps become a version of what they do for iPhones, where you, you know, basically have a white label manufacturing operation. What if you did the same thing for electric vehicles and you know, name your manufacturer, maybe fox Con makes that for you.
I don't know maybe Apple, I don't know.
I mean, no comment.
Read the story. There's a little bit of whatnot and that's also another element of the story.
Guys, we got to run, but great tease. Check out these stories.
Joe Webber, the editor of Business Week, Christina Lindblad, Bloomberg BusinessWeek Global Economics Editor.
Thank you, guys.
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