“Everyone Is Holding Their Breath,” Galea Says

dot com. If you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and be sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. You are listening to Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Master along with Tim Stanovic a Bloomberg quicktake, and we got to talk about the virus. You and I just kind of rehash some of the headlines, but one of the big ones is the Maderna news. Today. It seems like every Monday we're getting some big vaccine news,

doesn't It does seem like every mondy. It's like everybody working over the weekend, like we gotta get it out. It's like a deal right now, like we gotta get it out. Let's get into it, because we do still continue to see cases soaring globally we see a pullback, shutdown of economies. Let's bring in someone who has been a friend of our show, Dr Sandra Galia. He's Dina

Professor at Boston University School of Public Health. His author pained uncomfortable conversations about the public's health, and he joins us once again on the phone from Boston toctical A great to have you here with Tim and myself. How are you I am? I am very well all things considered, Carol. Thank you for having me and thank you for having me on your show. We'll tell me how Boston is. I mean, I think you know, we're all like, wait,

we've seen this movie before. Here we go again. I think it's fair to say Boston is a bit on the edge of its seat that we have had, like the rest of the country, another wave for Boston's probably the second wave. It's been a very attenuated compared to the first way which we had in March, April and May, and it has stayed relatively lower than it was then.

And but I think everybody is anxious, everybody is nervous, and I think the mayor and the Governor have been suitably cautious taking steps to try to contain the epidemic. As of right now, touch Wood, I think things remain relatively contained here, but I think everybody, like myself is sort of holding their breath and waiting for tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. Yeah, and toctically. I wondered too,

what you were thinking. What was going through your head when you saw those images of people in the airport last week. We had more people check into T s A last week than at any point since March before the pandemic hit, traveling despite what they heard from public health officials. What were you thinking? Terrifying? I'm going to tell you that's what I was thinking. What were you thinking? Well, it's you know, it really really depends. It depends on

what people were doing. The we we know that air travel in and of itself is relatively safe. In fact, the number of cases spread through our travel are very few. There really are at the level of case studies. It really depends on where people were going, and the concern was I think the concern was that they were going to travel to spend time with their family during the holidays, which we were told not to do. Well, that's well,

that's the issue. The issue is the issue is our people spending a lot of time in large groups without taking precautions about wearing masks, being indoors. And that's what we know is fueling spread. Was feeling spread is large gatherings indoors. The travel in and of itself is is perhaps an indicator of the But I would like to give people benefit of the doubt that that everybody was being careful and being suitably responsible. Of course, time will tell.

We shall see whether there are suitable where there are spikes that follow the Thanksgiving weekends. Well, so I wonder, you know, sounder, do you anticipate that you know, I don't know. Is it a week from now ten days where we'll get an idea if we see that Thanksgiving bump, we shall, yeah, we should. We should know that if there is thingsgiving bump, we should know in about the week to ten days. You know, we have to be

very careful about interpreting these data. For example, there's been a lot of written the American media about the Canadian things giving bump, but if you look at the Canada, but if you look at the Candian data, that's not accurate. In fact, the Canadian data where there was a steep acceleration before things giving. Things giving happened and acceleration continued, so there really was no clear evidence of a Thanksgiving

bump in Canada. So I I think we need to be I think we need to be very clear in our public health messaging that that we spread the virus by being indoors and untemplated areas with a lot of people coming from all over the place, hanging out together like radio station. Long as we have well I'm not I'm asking how many how many of you there are there? Well, we are socially distanced and they're very clean us. There

you go. But if people if people are careful for that, if people are careful for that, I think we we should be able to get through this without seeing unnecessary increases. I do think there is a danger. There's a danger to telling people that they should not do things that are fundamentally natural, that are that are essential for people to go on with a semblance of daily life. So I think the message has to be nuanced, and we

have been failing at providing a nuanced message in this country. Well, you know, it's interesting. I feel like that there's been a lot of momentum and tim I don't know if you're hearing this too bad about education, that we've maybe made some mistakes that the you know, education, I don't know how you see it. I think we've made I think we've made bigness education. And then there have been and there have been, and we've discussed this on your show, Carol.

I've said constantly that that the schools should be open, that the evidence that children transmit coronavirus is very low. Children do not really get sick from coronavirus. And there have been new analysis coming out now, for example, that the number of years of lives that will life, what that will be lost eventually due to the lower educational attainment of of children now probably dwarfs the number of years of lives lost due to coronavirus. And and these

are kind of analysis that we can do. So so we have Look, when COVID hit, coronavirus hit in March of twenty we were all an enormous panic, and we did everything that we could think of, essentially shut down the world to protect ourselves. And that was reasonable. That was a crisis. But it's now December. We're no longer in a crisis. We need to be approaching this judiciously, carefully and thoughtfully, and say, we know how this disease is spread, how do we minimize the ways the disease spread?

And how do we reopen parts of society that we can reopen safely? Well? Does seem like public health officials and government leaders are starting to change the way they're thinking as we do get more information. We saw build a Bladio over the weekend say wait a second, we can reopen schools. I mean, how did you read into that, doctor? I I thought it was exactly what you have said him, that that we are beginning to get. Why is there

and smart about this build a Blasio ahead? Of course, the three percent Kese positivity line red line that he had drawn because of negotiations with the unions as our understanding, Well, hard to know where three percent comes from? Whose five percent? There's no magic number, of course, and it was it

was a line of convenience. And I think what he came to is evidence is so overwhelming that children are missing out by not going to school, particularly poor and disadvantaged children, that there really should be the burden, the overwhelming burden of proof should be on something extraordinary that makes us close schools, not closing schools by default, and

I think he's right. I think he's right in changing his mind, and I think we collectively This is why I pushed back about the Thanksgiving I think we have to be careful about saying, well, what what is the high risk activity? Flying is not really high risk activity. The high risk activity is gathering indoors unmasked without being careful. He had to gather in it, and that's what we should minimize. It is Bloomberg Business Week Master Tim Stanivic

Bloomberg Cricktakes. So we are talking with Garna. Yeah, I mean you heard Charlie just now saying as a Maderna hired by sevent on this, Yeah, investor is pretty enthusiastic about it. Um, So Dr Galaa. So here we are Maderna a second press release. Someone said to me, are listening to an interview earlier, second press release in two weeks, but they've still not released some really key data point. Um,

tell me how you read the Maderna Maderna news. Well, I think there's no there's no way of reading it. But there's very good news and of course we still need to know some of the fine print. But MODERNA and fires, they're both use similar approaches to come up with very similar answers in terms of effectiveness. This is a really dramatically good news. Who uses and marone technology which didn't exist for a vaccine as recently as a year ago. So I do think that it makes COVID

a triumph of biomedical science. Of course, it leaves COVID a utter failure of a lot of other forms of science, social sciences, and a lot of ways in which we've controlled it, but that's another discussion. But from a vaccine point of view, the fact that we are this close to having a vaccine that can be why distributed is remarkable in such a short period of time, and I do think it creates an opportunity for there to be rapid vaccine development and future. So this is very good. Now,

there are details that still need to come out. Obviously there needs to be FDA approval, but there is no indication that the FDA process has been corrupted by political interference. All indications to my mind are that this will be a rigorous, fair, robust process, one that we can all trust. Well, it does seem like the vaccine development process here has just been nothing short of incredible from many different companies. But I wonder about the actual distribution and delivery of

the vaccine. We saw a lot of stories, including in Bloomberg over the weekend, about what airlines are doing around the world to to try to be ready for those vaccines, to bring them to far flung parts of the world. When do we get this vaccine? As a question that

keeps coming up, when does that happen? Dr well, when when when you heard the chair of Operation Works being speaking, I think was today or yesterday, he said that the first he anticipates the first people to getacinated December nine, tortent. That is essentially a week and a half, And that doesn't seem unreasonable. Now that that, of course is quite different than tim than when you and Caroline be getting it.

But I think it's reasonable to say that, assuming that there are no unanticipated hurdles, that there will be widespread vaccination by Q two of so that means in spring one. Now the question is when do we get to a functional normal, And the functional normal means enough of our are vaccinated to get to her immunity, and her immunity probably means about us, and that we're looking at maybe

the summer, maybe summer. What about when it comes to two kids, Because one issue that these trials have is is who is in the trials and who's not in these clinical trials, right, like not pregnant women, uh and and not kids? So so when do kids? What does the vaccine development process like in distribution process? When when kids start getting new vaccines? And and these are some of the questions that the FDA will will have to be addressing, and we will see, We'll see what emerges

from that. I I don't all the details of the data are collected. My anticipation is that there will be guidance on that and that there will be groups like pregnant women for example, But the FDA will have to look at the side effect profile and make a determination about about for whom is the vaccine? Is the vaccine is safe tactically. I'm amazed at the amount of people who are smart, educated to come up to me and like will you take the vaccine? Like there's a lot

of nervousness. I was having conversations this morning like right, not the typical anti vax or crowd. How these questions? Right? So are you worried about that, Yeah, it's worried. It

worries me. I suppose my hope, Carol, is that is that once the vaccine is no longer sort of this this mythical, mythical object clouds, once it becomes concrete, once once we start seeing people taking once you start seeing the once you see the president elect or president take it, then it will remove a lot of that fear, a lot of the stigma. Now, will there be some segment of the population that will not take it yet, But remember, we don't need everybody to take it. We really need

their immunity. Maybe people be nicer of its higher so we do not need everybody speak. So I'm on the National Endowment for the Arts and Health, and I should stay National Endowment for the Humanities. And because I googled Elvis Presley polio shot, remember that iconic shot of getting a polio vaccine. I imagine right now we're gonna have like Instagram influencers who are actually getting the vaccine. And

I think that would actually go a long way. And I think we need public health officials thinking about how we can get this message out to the grand general public, right and getting communities go ahead. I agree, I agree completely. I actually think that's exactly what will happen when you look at when you look at social change of public

health interventions and upstake of interventions. That's what happens. You have whatever the social media of the time is, you have influence, serious, you have politicians, have celebrities, have campaigns, and all of those will make a big difference. Right. We've heard that about like politicians going out, like local politicians going out to communities. You know, when people trust different individuals. Sandra, always always wonderful to check in with you.

Stay safe, uh, and we'll be in touch soon. Dr Sandracla Dina, Professor at Boston University School of Public Health. Check out his book Pained Uncomfortable Conversations about the Public South. That's a really keepful point. I think there's going to be huge influencers like showing I got the vaccine. There needs to be, and there there also needs to be politicians and members of Congress doing this too because there's so much skepticism. Yeah, I agree with you. This is

Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Karl Masser along with Tim Stanovic Bloomberg Quicktake, and so, Tim, it sounded like a good idea, maybe even a great idea back in the spring when the FED kind of came out with this bowl plan they were going to save midsized firms that we're getting kind of lost in the cracks caused by COVID.

Great idea, but as it turned out, not a great reality. Right. Yes, so says Christopher Condon on our colleagues at Bloomberg business Week, who have a new article out called the fed effort to save midsized firms isn't working and here's why. Chris Condon is Federal Reserve and US Economy reporter. He joins a sell the phone in Virginia along with Bloomberg business Week editor Jie Webber on the Access line in Brooklyn. Joel, great idea, but not so when you take a look

at how it played out. Well, I gotta just start with, you know, like, of all the of the of all the people and organizations who have been heroes this year, I think the FED goes right near to the top. So that's really important to start with. Let's preface with that. But do you think Jake Pale is listening is that

what's going on here? I mean, he's always listening, whether or not he wants to acknowledge us as a different matter, But um, you know the I think the thing that Chris really hit on here is that, you know, they did an enormous amount of good, but there's also sort of a size of company that the FED has effectively not been able to help as much, and that's the midsize company. Um So, Chris, what what did you guys

discover as you dug into this line of reporting? Right, Joel, You're right, this was kind of the bridge too far for a central bank during a crisis. Um. I think what it really comes down to is it gets very difficult when you ask a central bank to extend emergency

credit outside of capital markets. Capital mar gets have their own established structures and commoditized instruments that the FED can simply step into and act like a safety net, and they reassure all of the normal participants to get going again and do what they normally do. But if you're working, if you're trying to extend credit outside capital markets, you

have to do it one by one. So the FED in this case does not obviously have the personnel or systems to do one by one loan underwriting, so they had to turn to banks, and to make the bank underwriting reliable, they had to make sure the banks had skin in every loan. And if you make the banks have skin and every loan, that means they have risk

and they want a certain reward. And now you're getting into a situation of tension between how much reward does the lender get and how attractive is it also to the bar work. And despite all their efforts, the FED really just could never find a formula for this program that would make the lending attractive both for the banks that were trying to cover some risk. And don't forget this, this this program had a big backstop provided by the treashury, but that back stop was there only for the FED,

not for the banks. And the people would say, well, the FED was buying out of the loans, but in doing so, they didn't really change the risk to reward calculus on each dollar of loans from the bank. And only I'd like to say it would take a twenty million dollar crappy loan and turn it into a one million dollar crappy loans. Banks didn't want to happen so they never really were able to thread the needle and

get all the parties into something that felt attractive. So so what ends up happening to these small and medium medium sized businesses that needed this money, Well, many of them have just either limped on UM so I'm sure have gone out of business, many have laid off people.

There's just a lot of economic suffering that is happening here, a lot of UH and just what the Fed is trying to avoid, the long term scarring of the economy, of the labor market, UM and the Unfortunately, you know this is a lot of people will say this was avoidable if folks had realized right at the beginning that what this layer of the economy needed was was not lending, because let's face it, were you're talking about companies that could not get access to regular bank loans. There they

were struggling too much. But they did not need was more debt. What they needed was transfers from the government to help them bridge a stressful period. So if you you can't convince Congress to appropriate tax marrier money helped bridge these companies through the way they did for small companies with the paycheck Protection program, then your it looks.

This shows that you're not going to get very far, uh if you try to rope in the Federal Reserve, which of course cannot give away money, it can only lend money. Right, So let's Chris, let's let's go into kind of fantasy mode here, um and and talk about you know, there's some changes that are going to happen

at Treasury. Um. There's been conversations already about, you know, the Treasury's claw back of that FED money, How could how could the Fed effectively sort of attempt to address this midsize company as we look ahead to well, there are a couple of different avenues that have been suggested

if it still involves the Fed. Eric Rose and Grant, who is president of the Boston Fed, which is the portion of the FED that administered this program, that suggested that that Congress needs to be very explicit in telling both the Treasury and Fed that it can lose money with this program, that they need to take more risk. Not the banks involved, but they need to take more risk, and they're that Congress would be willing to back them

up and cover them. But that's you know, again, we're talking about a fiscal policy decision from elected officials is required others. We also talked to barad Rama Morty, who was a democratically appointed member of the commission that Congress created to oversee cares expending, and he really thinks that they should just throw in the towel on the Main Street program and Congress should come together and appropriate a certain amount of money into a grant program, a grant

making program. Maybe it would be a guaranteed loan program, which some of it would would morph into grants. Um. But something that's that's more congressional transfers directly to companies that are struggling through this what's obviously going to be a continued tough period until the vaccines are available. So in many ways it circles back over and over the Congress, and then they shouldn't be dazzled by the idea of

levering up money with the Fed. They should realize that what is much more effective, perhaps a smaller amount transferred directly to companies. Um. Yeah, direct cast always is kind of a good thing. We're hearing that a lot. Now. I'm up for it. Um, Chris, We're gonna leave it there. It's a great read, and it's just a reminder. I mean, we didn't have the playbook, but you really do wonder

about um. We know, small business important to the economy, mid sized businesses important probably to the economy as well, right, absolutely important, and they just don't have the same tools that the large, huge companies we talked about each day have, right exactly, And I've really been forgotten in this. And you do wonder the next round of stimulus, whether it

or aid helps them out. All Right, We're gonna leave it there, Chris, and thank you so much of Bloomberg News along with Till Webber, editor of Bloomberg Business Week. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer on Bloomberg Radios, indeed, Bloomberg Business Week on this Monday, Carol Master along with Tim Stanovic of Bloomberg Quicktake here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. So, Tim, we recently heard about a new position in the upcoming Biden administration. It

is the first climate star in the US. We're talking about President Electo Biden naming John Kerry. This is a big deal. It's a big deal, and it's a big name for the position, exactly, and it brings to him. I mean he several positions Secretary of State, UH, senator, almost president UM. So there's a lot in terms of

his own experience that he brings to this position. Well, it's totally a global issue, so it makes sense to have a resume like his, totally along with somebody who takes the job, which is exactly what our Bloomberg New Economy editorial director Andy Brown writes about in his column this week, and he joins us on the phone in New York City. Andy, nice to have you here with Tim and myself. Tell us about your thinking about John Kerry and in what kind of message this is sending,

perhaps to China as well. Yes, so everybody has focused on the idea that you know that climate has been elevated to a national security issue, given the fact that John Kerry is going to sit in the National Security Council as climates are UM. But there's also another really important message that it sends, and it's a message to China UM. John Terry has been very clear that he thinks that the US and China need to figure out some area on which they can cooperate UM and climate

UM is is a promising area. He wrote a piece just a couple of weeks ago for The New York Times saying that US and China need to work together to preserve the Southern Ocean, to save the Southern Ocean

in Antarctica. And he has a long track record of hands on engagement with China to fix problems, and it dates all the way back to at least the most notable, most notable recent episode was in two thousand and fourteen when he figured out a way to get China and the US to sign an agreement to limit their carbon emissions. And that was the deal that paved the way for the two thousand and fifteen Paris Agreements. So he has a track record of success in this area. Well, it

does seem like the Biden administration. One thing is for certain that they will inherit a lot to do with China in the sense of a trade war that we've been in for years at this point. How does John Kerry help ease the tension with it on a trade

war by using climate discussions? Yet, so, I think the assumption is that, um the tensions that have bedeviled the U S. China relationship under Donald Trump are not going to go away under a Biden presidency, and in fact, UH they may actually be exacerbated, particularly in the area of human rights as it relates to Hong Kong and the National Security Law and the detention camps in Shinjiang

and so on. And in order to prevent these problems spiraling into a crisis, into confrontation, potentially even military confrontation, UM, you need to figure out how you can mitigate some of those tensions by working together in discrete areas. And the climate, of course, is hardly a discrete area, given that it crosses almost every other area of policy and arguably is the greatest threat to UH, to humanity. So you know, it is a big project working with China,

but it's not the only area. I mean, there's pandemics, UH, there's mass migration. But you know, a lot of people are suggesting that climate is the most fruitful area that the two countries to work together, and particularly since they're now both aligned, the US under a Biden presidency and China on the need to get to to carbon neutrality. She jumping the China Chinese president has promised to do that by two thousand and sixty. Biden talks about doing

it by two thousand and fifty. Well, you know, and that's what I think, you know, Andy, just coming off the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, which you know, you and your team put together. It was incredible aroundup of of global speakers, you know, and one of the pillars was

all about climate. Like it feels like something is different from even the Obama administration the few years that have passed that we are seeing increasingly the impact of climate change in our environment and it's hard for global leaders to ignore. And so you do wonder China and the United States where they can really step up on the global stage and really make a difference here. Yeah, well, you now have this alignment, as you say, with between

the US and China, but also Europe. You've got large parts of the planet that are pulling together on you know, to towards common neutrality and and all of them putting in place programs for a green recovery, uh from the pandemic. Even though, as we did discuss in the New Economy Forum, China is worryingly in the short term trying to juice

growth by building coal fire power stations. Nevertheless, it's also installing at an incredibly rapid rate solar and wind You know and and uh and doubling down on on renewable energy technologies. Well, and I do wonder, you know, how they will use business policy, trade policy, the US, maybe the world to get China to do what they need to do when it comes to climate. Yeah, I'm not I'm not surely. I'm not sure that leverage works in

that direction. I really do think it's more a question of we know that we are going to have these problems, and and and as we heard in the New Economy Form Henry Kissinger warning that unless we can figure out how to collaborate, you know, we we could we could be looking at a World War one situation. More a question of we know we've got problems, let's work on something, whether where there is a potential joint solution. What about the critics who say that carry is during his time

as senator, Yeah exactly, what about them? Uh? Yeah, well, you know the clearly clearly there is there's a great deal of skepticism within the political establishment, both both on the Democrat and the Republican side, on on on working with China. Um and it's not it's it's it's not going to be easy. And from the Chinese side, um, you know, but Biden in many ways is their worst nightmare because what he what he promises to do is

bring together US allies and friends to confront China. So we've already's seen he said, you know, he wants a Summit of Democracy sometime next year. The EU has just written to Biden proposing his summit in the first half

of the year. Upbringing together, it says, a once in the once in a generation opportunity to build a coalition with with the United States, a sort of Transatlantic access And although they say they don't mention China, it's very clear that this is that, this this access um and indeed Biden's council, the Summit of Democracies, is intended to counter the threat from China. Right, Yeah, so much. And it'll be interesting to watch in terms of how this

policy ultimately works its way through in the new administration. Hey, Andy, thank you so much. Bloomberg New Economy editorial director Andy Brown with us on the phone in New York City, Romco a journal Now, but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please, I'll do the writing drivel. Let me I want to drive, Just drive, baby. The questions trying. This is the Drive to the Globe that funk. Thanks, we'll try us John on radios. All right, so it

is time for the Drive to the close. I'm Karl Master with Tim Stanevik Bloomberg, Quietake, and we want to bring in JJ Kinahan, whose chief market strategies at t d A marriage trade. JJ back with us, joining us on the phone from Chicago, j J. Nice to have you here. How's it going in Chicago? Always a pleasure. I saw some great pictures of your turkey on Thanksgiving movie Delicious. It was really good. My husband's an incredible cook. It was a great turkey. We also did a picnic

table for the squirrel. We had a little bit too much time on our hand. We're a little crazy. No wine involved. I'm just gonna tell you that. Um Chicago though virus. I'm just curious how your world and what's around you is kind of impacting how you think about the financial markets. Well, you know, I think it's very interesting right now in the fact that it feels like it's always, uh, vaccine Monday. Every Monday, we seemed to be getting some news one way or the other on

which is good. But yeah, we're saying you gonna illinoisan in Chicago that the cases are coming down a little bit. But as we know, God bless the healthcare workers have been really overworked over the last few months, and you're just hopening, hoping a planting out was really all we need to see. I think if you get a flattening out for the holidays, that's a victory, very honest with you. And so if we can get that, and you know, clearly the market has looked beyond the vaccine onto all

the great things that can happen. The thing that makes me nervous about doing so is we know that it's going to be a logistical circus to get things where they need to be. And so I just warned people not to get caught up too much into euphoria. It's wonderful we have these vaccines, and I hope they can get out as quickly as possible, but we all know that the logistics are usually where the true test will

will come. Yeah, I mean, and I wonder too, just about because we've seen this year and be really the year of the retail investor j J. If we're seeing retail investors stay in the market despite not having the stimulus payments and get in on the vaccine run up that we've seen in the month November. You know what's interesting, Tim, Obviously we've had as you said, it's been an incredible year in terms of volume and interest for the retail investor.

What was really interesting to me was when I looked at Friday and the week that I'm calling out Friday specifically is because this tends to be a slow week in every area of the of the market, and you know, obviously you would expect some fall off throughout the week. We saw it fairly busy all week, So interesting, and we saw people. Yeah, it was so strange. When I saw the numbers at the end of the day, I

thought we'd made a mispace. I wonder if this is because well, I wonder if this is because people weren't out shopping at Black Friday. And it was sort of similar to the narrative that we saw a play out over the summer. Right, people are stuck at home, they have stimulus payments, trade checks, and they're trading, they're not watching sports. Is that what you think happened? That could

be part of it. But this is one of the first times when we've actually compete didn't with sports because it was sports ide during the day Friday, which you normally don't have, so uh, they can play draftings or whatever, you know, a sporting site they may want to go to. So I actually think that's a good sign going forward that people continue to have an interested in this market overall, and it's not you know, there's been so much made in the media of it being people just come in

and take just day trading. I think we're seeing much beyond that. In fact, as I look at some of the you know stocks that people who bought last week, Apple leading the way Tesla was, our clients have been buying for years now. You do have MODERNA and Paliper, which you know, you could argue haven't been as much uh over years, but their technology is also a little bit newer in both cases. So I think there is a very healthy mix of people who are in it

for shorter term and longer term investors. I think the longer term investor has been sort of ignored in all of this because it's not as sexiest story. So that's really interesting. So that's what your clients are buying on Black Friday, Palentteer, Tesla Maderna and Apple. That's where you saw action. Yeah, that's just really fascinating. I feel like that's kind of our world in a nutshell, to be

quite honest, Yeah it is. I mean, if there are companies that we've been talking about for years, of course Apple, but Tesla has been the name for November exactly. And to be quite honest, I mean that's really fast good as say an Apple remains still the number one held s thoughts at our firm. Parents started to jump in there, but I think you're making a really important point, right and palant here right, that's the Teal company, right, Peter Teal, Like,

it's just kind of fascinating. Well, okay, So Dave Wilson was on earlier. He talked about his chart of the day and talked specifically about the SMP five twenty year old valuation peak. Uh. And we're talking about price to sales. I mean, do you get a little concerned when you start to look at the valuations of the marketplace. Yeah, I think you have to be a little bit concerned. Uh. But and here's why I think you saw reflected a

little bit in this earning season. And what I mean by that exactly is think about the stocks that were considered essential businesses, the home depots, the walmarts of the world. Their numbers were absolutely monstrous again this quarter, but their

stocks sold off on that. I think we may come to a point where we see a similar thing in the entire SMP five hundred, where yes, these these stocks that when people get back to work, when we go back to you know, air quotes normal world, uh, that things are going well, But can we keep can can

the reality meet the expectation? Because I think at some point, even though the numbers might be great, and they might have great sales, etcetera, at that point people might say, well, yeah, but I already expected this to beat this is in order for me to want to buy more. And I think that's one of the bigger risks as we head into this spring in early summer of next year, is that the reality won't be able to keep up with

the expectation. I want to talk Slack here. It's a it's one of the stocks that you mentioned in your recent article. Um of course, CNBC is reporting that a deal force Slack from Salesforce could come as soon as Tuesday, after the clothes were also expecting earnings. What are you keeping an eye on when you see this type of M and A. I think it's actually great, you know we saw I feel like it's kind of shift. It's

still in the technology sector. Think about it. We just had the chips all go through a wards that a month and a half two months ago. Now we're going to other areas of technology where people are sitting on cash, they're not quite sure what to do with it. It may be okay, we've invested all we can and what we do, well, are there businesses which fit into what we do? We can continue with our scale of distribution, cut some costs out of and really make our offering

one that's very well rounded. So in this case, on its surface, it certainly does seem to make a lot of sense that that is exactly the model that Salesforce would be following with slack. And as I said, it know it was all well received when it happened in the chip sector. I think this is just a natural extension and I would think that maybe you'll see more of it in different parts of the technology stuff. Well, we know Salesforce is inquisitive and the other thing is

our Bloomberg intelligence. Alice saying that, listen, there's stocks, they do a stock deal, it's pretty easy for them to do, right, I mean in terms of the run up that they've seen. What does it mean for those two of us who use slack changes always when there's a deal? All right? J J? Thanks so much. J. J. Knham, Chief Market Strategy, a t D Merriage trade on the phone from Chicago, checking out my turkey while my husband's turkey. Thanks so

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