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End of an Era for Blackberry

Jan 04, 202234 min
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Episode description

Dr. Michael Blaivas, Chief Medical Officer of Anavasi Diagnostics, discusses the need for more testing for the omicron variant. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Telecom Services & Equipment Analyst John Butler talks about the end of an era for the iconic Blackberry handset as the original operating system and services will no longer be supported. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Bloomberg News Healthcare Reporter Emma Court share Emma's Businessweek Magazine story Prescription Weight Loss Drugs Are Working, If You Can Get One. Bloomberg News Credit Markets and High Yield Bond Reporter Olivia Raimonde reports on Netflix moving closer to investment-grade status. And we Drive to the Close with Lori Heinel, Global CIO at State Street Global Advisors.

Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carole Masser and I'm Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing you the latest news from the world to business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, all parnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can download Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com.

You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Clovel News. Dr Michael Blavi's chief medical officer at Anna Vasi Diagnostics, joining us once to count on the phone from Atlanta. Doctor, thanks for sticking around with us as we we heard from the president. Uh. Your immediate immediate reaction to to what we heard from the president. It wasn't necessarily a different message than we've

been hearing from him for months. Oh, it's a consistent message. Uh. The theme is everybody has to pitch in to try to control the pandemic spread. And now more of a focus on the fact that booster shots immunization will protect you from getting very sick going to that I see you possibly dying, uh, But infection probably has to occur still, and the only way we can control it is isolating ourselves when are positive. So the theme of testing right right,

and this is something you guys. You are developing your own um at home test and I know that is still working its way through in terms of towards an emergency use act and stuff. How how do you see kind of the testing situation as we speak And I'm I'm guessing these kinds of tests will be with us for a long time. Yes, the tests that will keep evolving. Others will put the high accuracy tests on the market

in miniature form like we're doing. But it's interesting a lot of tests are out of stock when you go to your grocery store pharmacy, the home kits are out of stock, and I are not in big time for

those radio acquire my friends. Absolutely. And then also at the same time that DA has started to make a list of tests that may not be so accurate for el macron and we're likely to see that in the future even more with additional mutations because tests uh main target the wrong area in a macron now an area that is mutated from delta. So more and more concerned about that. Wait wait what yeah? Can those tests like Okay, so let's say you know some tests that are common

by nax now, for example, from Abbot Labs. Could it tests like that be altered? Do Look? Could it tests like that be altered by Abbott to pick up different variants in a better way? And how quickly? Absolutely? Absolutely? Uh, you know, someone like Abbott could work that out very quickly, But then they'll have to go through the emergency Youths authorization procedure again. So realistically you're talking about several months in most cases, which is light speed compared two years ago.

But absolutely Abbott could make that adjustment, so could others, and others probably will have to do that in the future. Um, it's an interesting world. Tim and I were also talking about the cost of tests. I mean, they're not an expensive certainly they at home test and I do let's just be honest. You texted me, Carroll texted me last night at PM's what I bought mine? And she said, I found some tests at this drug store near the office.

I went this morning and I picked up for we have like an and thank you Creedy because she's the one who's like, hey, you gotta check out this pharmacy. So it's been like a little network inside of our our offices. Um, so we do find it, but I do worry about people who need to work can't afford these tests. Maybe your vaccinated fingers crossed they are. I mean, we need to just get test house. I think over in the UK, one of our colleagues said, at the

National Health Services, you know, just supplies them. Yeah, and the same the same thing was done in Switzerland where every family was given five tests per family member for each month they could test regularly. And as a physician, one of the greatest challenge just we had an emergency department. Are low income folks that are working, they can't afford the tests, and they also can't afford to stop working when they're sick or feeling sick. That means they in

fact others. It's a really difficult position to deal with. So how how does this how does this pandemic end? We're entering year three of it, doctor, and I'm I'm just you know, this is a pretty exasperating time. I think for a lot of people especially those with young kids who are not in school as a result of this and are concern because those kids can't be vaccinated yet. I'm speaking about myself. How does this end sure? I think probably we learn to live with the virus and

it's different, different mutations. Hopefully we get more mutations like O. Macron that don't make people quite as sick. Overall, the immunization or immunity and the air in the community and the society goes up and we have more very highly effective medications, so that one day in the future O. Macron is a little bit more like the flu. There are susceptible people, they get extra immunizations if you get

the flu. We actually may have more effective medications against a macron than the flu, and I think that will absolutely be the case in the near future. Dr Blavis just got about a minute or under a minute left here. What's the outlook in terms of UM I know you guys are working on submitting your COVID test for FDA authorization under the Emergency Use Act. Any update on that. Yes,

we just started in rolling patients. We're hoping to be done in rolling patients by the middle of this month, maybe the third week and then if all goes as planned, we'll get the emergency use authorization by the FDA to start selling on approximately March one. All right, well, good to know, and we wish you good luck with it. Certainly, it seems like the world is just appreciative of the

more tools that we have to deal with this. Dr Michael Blavis, he's chief medical officer at Anna Vass Diagnostics, joining us once again on the phone from Atlanta. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Carol, you had a BlackBerry. I did. I loved it. How many years do you think you had at my crackberry? Yeah? A few years to remember, and I did quite get it until I got one, and then I was like addicted. And then

as soon as the iPhone came along. What happened? First I didn't love it? Yeah, and then you wanted that old keyboard back right? You wanted that physical keyboard? Did you? Did you have one? I did have a BlackBerry, but uh, yeah it was fine. I mean, but I went to iPhone pretty quickly, and you can do them out so much more with a smartphone. Yeah, you really can. It's a lot different, but it's certainly fair to say that it ushered in a new era when it came to

smartphones and personal technology. Well, it's the end of the road for BlackBerry. Piece. It's the BlackBerry operating system. We should know the point. We should note that you can still get Blackberries that are powered by Android. Joining us now to talk all about it is John Butler, senior Telecom Services and Equipment analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins us on the phone from New Jersey. John, how how many people are is this going to affect? Blackberries? Are like,

they're like unicorns, right? You see him in the wild and you're wow, BlackBerry. I don't you know. I was listening to you guys talk. I had a BlackBerry as well. I don't see a lot out in the wild anymore. I'm not sure it's really going to affect many people and BlackBerry years ago. Our name is Carol, and I have a BlackBerry. It's like, you know what I mean, what if people hide it? Right, John, there's a few of us out there. But I I switched to the

iPhone pretty quickly too. But um, you know, it was one of those corporate libel phones, like companies paid for your cell phone and gave you. In my case, I had a rim page or if you remember the old name research in Motion, and you know, you eventually moved to two phones. And people love BlackBerry so much that they ended up hanging onto the Blackberries for a long time. And honestly, three or four years ago, I used to see a lot of Blackberries out in the y else

so to speak, and I'm just not seeing them anymore. So, Carol, to answer your question, I don't think there's a lot of users at this point that are still hanging on. But you know, from a corporate standpoint, it's something that BlackBerry, BlackBerry needed to move on from that. They really are a software maker right now. Um, they've moved into mobile software and security software and they sold off that handset

business years ago. So it's a good point, right They've been going through changes, John, So what I don't know what how do you see the outlook of the future of BlackBerry. So they are still a company and transition, and I think a lot of people would have thought at this point they would be out of the transition

and growing better, and they still have to make some move. So, speaking of handsets, they had this huge portfolio of intellectual property for wireless and they're trying to sell that right out a fund R and D to get a bunch of new products over the finish line. And we're almost there. You know. It's one of those stories. You can see it beginning to come together. But they need more funding, uh, and they need a little bit more focus, and um, you know, my sense with them is I think they'll

get there. Um, it's hardly a given, but I think I think they're on their way. Um. I think it was high time they that they finally kind of let go of that wireless business. Even a couple of quarters ago, they were still reporting what they called service access fees, So people who had a BlackBerry would pay a fee to get access to their proprietary network for email and file transfer and that kind of stuff. And so that'll

that'll go and it'll free up some cost. Hey, John, I wonder if there's any sort of lesson in here about business icicles and companies and companies staying on top of things that we can learn from the rise and fall of BlackBerry, especially the day that after Apple hits three trillion dollars in market cap, because if we think back to two thousand seven, when Steve Jobs stood on that stage and introduced the iPhone, there were a lot of people out there who said, there is no future

for this thing. BlackBerry dominates when it comes to smartphones, you know that. I think the lesson learned is, particularly in the tech industry, some of these gigantic companies can literally disappear and um or they can disappear from a given business, as was the case with BlackBerry, but they really are a shadow of their former self, if you will.

But LG just left the smartphone business and they were a pretty big player for many years, and so to me, I always use BlackBerry as an example of how these tech behemoths can really fall from grace and ultimately disappear over time. And I think the other lesson, and I've learned this over the years as an analyst, is that it's important to have the right CEO in place at the right time in a company's life cycle. And I

think Apple is a great example of that. I think Tim Cook came in right at a time when Apple had reinvented, their product line was set, but they needed a logistics guy to really grow it where it is today exactly, Tim Cook, I think was the right guy to do that. All right, John, Hey, we gotta run. Thank you so much. Always appreciate your insight. John Butler,

Senior Telecom Service and Equipment analyst a Bloomberg Intelligence. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Obesity is a disease, and there are ways to fight it, including prescription drugs that work. The problem is most doctors are not prescribing them, and insurers won't come for them. Let's get to the reasons why. Well. I'm a cord As healthcare reporter for Bloomberg News. She joins us on the phone from New

York City. Her story is going to be featured in the upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. You can read it now though on the Bloomberg Terminal, also online at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week. Joel Weber is editor at Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us now on the access line from Brooklyn. Joel Carroll mentioned this group of drugs. These This group is known as g LP one receptor agonists or GLP ones. What do they do?

It's very catchy, right, yeah, it is for the pharmacyical industry really has a way with naming things, right, yeah, exactly. But you know, regardless of name, Uh, the science behind these shows promise and uh, as Emma goes into in the story, um the drugs, and this class of drugs is really geared. Maybe not um just you know those stubborn five pounds that we'd all like to get off, but a whole category of people who really haven't had that many many drugs for them before, which is obese

obset people, and obesity being such an epidemic in the country. Um, numbers that are stubborn and and really don't go up go down. And yet you know, doctors have the stigma around it. It's like it's still in their mind. Can be a behavioral problem that science can't necessarily solve. Insurance on top of that, looks at this new class of drug and they're not necessarily thrown money at it all of which you know kind of leaves this solution to a big problem someone on the shelf. But but now

I'm talking on the turn. I don't want to hear more from ms Emma, Uh what what what? How did this story coming to being and and how what kind of potential does this class of drugs really really have? Hi, UM, well, thanks so much for having me on and um, I hope everyone who listen to me has a chance to

check out the story. The piece started, there were a couple of early threads, but I started hearing about so startups that we're trying to treat obesity and help people with weight loss using medication and telemedicine, so these like virtual doctors visits, and I thought it was sort of an interesting approach, and at the same time with hearing about pharmaceutical companies trying to develop better obesity drugs and um, you know, as I learned more about the space, I

just kept coming back to this point of like, you know, even previous to these GLP one drugs that are starting to be developed for weight loss and obesity specifically, they would previously been used in diabetes. You know, there have been prescription drugs that can help people lose weight that

are rarely used. Um. You know, and this is going back several years, and there's a lot of different complicated reasons for that, but I kept kind of just being struck by the discrepancy between the fact that you know, many people are are obese or overweight UM in the US, you know, hundreds of millions of people, UM. And yet people are consistently being told to diet to exercise, and they're not being told about the other option that's available

for them. All right, Emma. The thing I find like crazy, like blows my mind a little bit is, and you write this, the biggest constraint on weight lost drugs remains buy in from the broader medical industry. How can doctors who potentially see this as something that could really like prescribing one of these drugs help one of their obese patients. How how are they allowed, you know, as a doctor, not to prescribe it. That's a really good question, Carol.

And I think you know, I quote a doctor and obesity doctor and the story who says sort of, you know, if you treated diabetes or hypertension in this way, like you know, a doctor would lose their their medical license. I mean, it's kind of remarkable that, you know, we're very comfortable prescribing and by way, I mean doctor is prescribing medications for so many different kinds of medical conditions. And I think a lot of this helps to do

with the way OBEs to previously been seen. Right, people think of obesity or or being overweight as really being a something that you kind of did yourself, right, and we kind of get into this more of the piece. But you didn't work hard enough to lose weight, right, this is your fault, um and UM. As a result, this is treated as as a lifestyle condition. If you're

eating too much, you're not active enough, um. And there's some more complicated science that's come out in the last several decades that shows that our bodies really do have a big influence over how we you know, when we stop eating, you know when we're hungry, when we feel satisfied after we eat, and and that there's more biologically going on than merely sort of you know, refraining from getting on the treadmill every day, which is what I

think a lot of people unfortunately still think, and even even doctors and certainly people who struggle with their weight themselves. Well, I'm just gonna make one comment because I know Tim has a question, but I'm just gonna I wrote a note being OBEs is big business, and it supports a lot that's out there anyway, that's my that's my pa

in peace. It doesn't. It's a good I mean, it's a good thing for us to be thinking about on in the new year, when a lot of people have different fitness goals and weight loss goals that are associated with the new year. I want to talk a little bit more about that m and and obesity because I was I was I'm always shocked to see these statistics about you know, how many Americans are are obese or

overweight three and four and estimated two million people. Can you talk a little bit though about comorbidities here in the dangers of being overweight. They've come to the to the to the surface a lot when in discussions of COVID. But but beyond that, yeah, yeah, so, um, the big kind of concern about having excess weight as obviously that's defined by the body mass index UH standard. Right, So people who are um obese are at higher risk of

developing various um medical conditions, including um diabetes. Another respects tied to obese is actually all call mortality, so literally death by any cause. Um. So we know from some of these statistical analogies that you know, when you are you carry around extra weight, you are more likely to develop some of these other medical problems. And you know, it does raise a lot of concerns for doctors and medical providers about your health, right are you as healthy

as you could be? Um? And as a result, it's led to a lot of interest in finding rains to keep pounds off obviously not just for you know, reasons of appearance, but also really health health reasons. So to wrap her, Emma, let's talk briefly about the science. How does this this class of drugs that we're talking about here, um, the gop ones, how how does it? How do they work? And Imma just got about thirty seconds. So they do

a couple of different things. Especially when you're talking about diabetes, they actually help pincreas, get the pincreas to produce insulin to bring your blood sugar levels down. But when you're talking about weight loss specific atale, what's really interesting about these drugs is they mimic a hormone called g lp one. Right, these drugs are named after the hormone and it actually, uh kind of helps tell your brain like you're satisfied, you don't have to eat anymore. Um, and that's kind

of the key to it. It's funny people might think of that, you know, they've got hormones, but they actually work most potently, it seems, in the brain, which is kind of a fascinating thing to think about, this being really neuroscience. At the end of the day, all right, we're gonna leave it on that note. Listen, guys, thank you so much. It's a really wonderful story, I mean, troubling story, but you should definitely check it out with all its uh details. You can find it at Bloomberg

dot com and the court there and Chill Weber. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Later this month, We're gonna get update on Netflix when it reports it's latest quarterly results. This is the company's edging closer to investment grade status. It's what you call a rising star, at least according to our Bloomberg Intelligent Seen that is about

the upgrade to their investment grade status. Let's get into it with Olivia Raymond, a credit markets and high yield bond reporter for Bloomberg new She joins us on the phone from here in New York City, Olivia. Great to have you with us. UM can help us make the connection here between what exactly is going on with with Netflix right now on the credit side, and you know what we've seen with with Netflix is stock in recent years as it's continued to just fly higher. Yeah, so

thank you so much for having me on. So Netflix is poised to become a so called rising star at some point this year. And what that means for listeners who aren't aware, aren't aware of that phrase, that just simply means that a junk graded company is moved into investment grade status and all of its debt gets moved into investment grade UH indices. So Netflix already has one

high grade rating from SMP. They upgraded Netflix last October, so all it needs is a second rating from a second high grade rating from one of the major rading rating agencies for it to bump up to that rising star status. So tell us about what that means, because that means basically what servicing your debt costs less. Yeah, exactly. So, So when companies leave junk status and become investment grade UM, they can get financed from a deeper pool of borrowers

at lower rates. So what are the changes that the company has made in order to boosts credit rating? How has this happened? Yes, so that their credit metrics have performed um and have been improving. They have raise an ample amount of liquidity, and they've also signaled that they are not going to need to take out much more debt in the future due to the recent successes that

they've had, especially over the pandemic. When everyone lives stuck at home, watch movies and shows on the streaming circuit streaming service excuse me, and m boost its h boosts viewers. So so that's helped it UM shore up some money and I need to tap the bond market less frequently. Well okay, so so just to help me out here, because I don't cover the credit market closely at all, So you know, I I really focus. I looked to a lot of the equity performance and you know here

so far. You know, Netflix was underperformed the NASTAC but finished hired by eleven, it was hired by sixty seven, was hired by ninety and twenty seventy. To the credit market person about the equity, Yeah, because what I'm saying is is that the rating for the credit rating hasn't really dissuaded equity investors here, So are they have they been stupid? That's what I'm That's what I'm thank you, Carol. No, No, what what what I what we're seeing more? Did they

have foresight? Yeah, what we're seeing is investor foresight here. They're anticipating that Netflix fundamentals will continue to improve um and that's reflected in the credit rating analysis that the major graders send out as well. It's so fair to say it's like a lagging indicatory, right, which one the equity market, the credit mark, the credit market. But isn't

the credit market often well? So tell us about right, we spend so much time, as you know, Olivia, talking about the equity side of things, but the credit markets, you know, can often tell you very quickly if a company is in trouble. So I'm just thinking about for our you know, our audience who watch both things. But again, we talked so much about the equity side of things.

You know, what does this potential upgrade also mean in terms of how investors overall look at this company or maybe should look at this company, especially when you dig deeper into that balance sheet. Yeah for sure. Um. You know the important thing there is that, um, what happens off and is one of company is upgraded to investment grade, they issue bonds very shortly after because they can get them at a lower yield um, and so therefore they

tend to trade better than the broader market. So um, according to Bank of America strategists, Um, and this is a quote, rising star should be bought as soon as possible. And that's not just for Netflix, but for the potential hundred and sixty nine billion dollar wave of rising stars that we could see this year after we had a very large credit rating downgrade during amid the worst of

the pandemic. Hey, just quickly, and if I think about in the equity side, thing we've talked so much about indexing, right, are are people who are invested in index funds? Same thing though, if you're you know, the credit is upgraded, right, you're more likely to be in a lot more corporate indexing funds or index funds. So that's exactly what happens. Is your company has moved to investment grade status, your your debt leaves all high yields and to see is

and it's moved into investment grade in disease. All right, makes sense, good reason to keep an eye on Netflix, and always important to look at the credit side of things. Um, Olivia, thank you so much. Olivia Raymond. She's credit markets and high yield bond reporter on the phone in New York City. You can't say you're not a cult person. I'll admit it. Look at all this stuff we do. But I you know, rising Star that works pretty well for Netflix. It's a

better trend than maybe it does. It works so well for Netflix. It's a show that it's a company that is focused on stars. Whether you know that swid game or what was that movie, Power of the Dog. Carol liked Yeah, Tim recommended it. I'm sorry, I just liked it. I lost it was lost on me. Yeah, but you let me drive? Oh no, no, no, no, this is not a toy. Oh please, I'll do I want to dry. It's a good question. This is the drive to the CLOBEO. All right, So I I just got about ten minutes left

in today's trading session. We are driving to the close. Let's bringin our guest, Laurie Heinal. She's Global Chief investment officer. Excuse me, Global chief investment officer over its State Street Global Advisors. They've got three point eighty six trillion dollars in assets under management, managing a lot. And she joins us on the phone from Boston, Laurie, how are you happy New Year? Happy New yor doing great to us? Seeing a little bit of fun finally, Oh my gosh, right,

it feels good. It's un I don't know, it's a little gray here, but um interesting first couple of days of trading. Two days does not make a trend, and yet we're bouncing off our loads here today. What's what's on the mind of investors right now is they try to make investment bets and maybe kind of set up

their portfolio for the new year. Well, lots of things are on investor's minds right now, but two of them are things that have been on our minds for quite a while now, COVID and FED, and those two things are moving in a little bit opposite directions right now, because obviously we have concerns about COVID, particularly a macron, but we're also starting to see that perhaps this version of COVID takes us to more of an endemic situation where it's lots about the pandemic and more about learning

to live with the virus. On the other hand, we've got a FED that seems to have moved quite hawkish, quite quickly, so those two things are likely to be what will battle it out in the first half of Okay, So give us an idea of asset allocation, because we spent a lot of last week talking about fixed income and whether or not there actually is a role for fixed income in portfolios right now with the direction of interest rates and where they are now. Uh, do you

think there's still a role for fixed income? Well, certainly, as allocation has not gotten any easier, and there are a couple of dynamics at play. First of all, we've had pretty lofty valuations in lots of parts of the equity markets. But as you note, given that fixed income interest rates are just so very low, even with a little bit of a back up here, fixed incomes just not that attractive. So we've been trying to do a couple of things. First of all, look for other opportunities

with inequities where relative valuations are more attractive. So we've recently been repositioning out of US more into Europe, where we think they benefit from the cyclical trade and we can get more attractive pricing. But we've also looked at fixed income places where there's a little bit better yield, so looking at credit, looking at emerging markets debt for example, and perhaps putting a few other diversifiers in there, including commodities.

Interesting US though versus the rest of the world. How do you see it? Yeah, well, so for many, many years, the US has been our core equity position, and we've been overweight at times pretty significantly versus the rest of the world. But we actually think two is going to be a time when you want to pivot and focus

a little bit more on non US assets. If you look at the rotation from kind of growth stocks into more clickal sectors, European industries are just much more represented in those cyclical section sectors, which should benefit as this recovery takes hold. So our trade is really more out of US, although not terribly underweight, but more into European for more high growth opportunities for investors. So are you betting that Europe will outperform the US at the moment.

That's the way we're positioned. And again we think there are a couple of things that put a little bit of wind in the sales of Europe, as I mentioned, a bit more cyclical representation. So those are stocks that should that perform as we continue into the growth sector or growth engine, if you will, as the economic growth recovers. We also think that the central bank there will be a bit more dubbish, which should provide a bit more

opportunity for evaluation expansion. And we also think that Europe has a lot of other, um, you know, dimensions, notably being willing to have a bit more fiscal stimulus, which is something that has not happened in New York really for the last decade. How is lori um kind of the great decoupling that we might see among global central banks?

In other words, you know what we see spheres of monetary influence, not my words, but our Tom or like chief economist at Bloomberg, and he's looking at this great decoupling of global central banks where we will see some raising rates, some not, or some even cutting rates. And you know, certainly when you look at something like China versus the US, you could see two giants in the global economy pursuing very different monetary strategies. What are the

implications of that. Well, first of all, I think that's spot on. Again. Keep in mind that the backdrop for literally the last decade has been to try to stimulate growth. There wasn't any inflation that was any of any concern to any central bankers, and so they could be much more dubbish and their posture in support of markets and

in support of economies. But now we're in a different place where we are starting to see inflation in some parts of the the world, notably here in the U S where as I mentioned earlier, and the FEDS suddenly gotten a lot more concerned about that. We also have different growth factors here, so China, for example, has seen their growth rate slow pretty dramatically over the last couple of years.

So it's a combination of inflationary pressures, growth trajectory, and also just you know how there are other dynamics like the fiscal policy that are going to come into play here. Laurie. You know, we talk a lot about inflation, and that's certainly being a concern for many strategist going into two.

When do you think inflation peaks? Uh, Well, we actually think that we may have seen the worst of it, but that that doesn't mean we're going to go back to the two rates that we had enjoyed pre covid um. But what's likely to happen in our view is that the beginning of two thousand two will still have higher than normal inflation, but the inflation drivers will start to

rotate a bit. So, for example, energy prices were a big driver of inflation in one and likely will continue a little bit into point twenty two, but suddenly the comps on the year over year basis will become a lot different. On the other hand, we think that things like real estate and owners equivalent rents are likely to pick up in the second half of two as we start to see some of those rental prices continue to

grind higher. So so we think we may have hit the peak or or very near the peak, but that doesn't mean we're going back to that sub two percent level. Uh. Jobs and the labor market. Do you think it continues to provide some optimism going forward. Just got about twenty seconds here, Yeah, we do. We actually think that there could be a bit of an upside surprise of a consensive number of just over four thousand and maybe more in the form of revisions versus the actual print for

last months. But we do think that manufacturing will hold up well here in the service sector, while being a little bit challenged right at the moment, is likely to be pretty resilient. Right. We did get some optimism from the I S M manufacturing. We did see delivery times and prices um improving coming down in terms of prices in delivery times reducing, which maybe that supply chain constraints getting better. All right, Lori, we gotta run Happy new year.

Laurie Heinel, She's Global Chief Investment Officer at state Tree Global Advisors. Tons of money, almost four trillion in assets under management, on the phone from Boston. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News

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