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Developing Tech to Increase COVID-19 Testing

Jul 27, 202033 min
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Episode description

We get the Businessweek Agenda with and Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist Gina Martin Adams and Bloomberg Stocks Editor Dave Wilson. Neil De Crescenzo, CEO of Change Healthcare, discusses developing technology to get COVID-19 tests at primary care doctor's offices. Bloomberg Sports Reporter Jon Stashower talks about the Miami Marlins cancelling their games as the coronavirus spreads through their clubhouse. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Bloomberg Hedge Fund reporter Hema Parmar, talk about the impact the pandemic has had on hedge funds. And we Drive to the Close with Burt White, Chief Investment Officer at LPL Financial. Hosts: Jason Kelly and Scarlet Fu. Producer: Doni Holloway.

Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Doni Holloway. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors. And of course Carol that's part of a team of twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business

Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. So much to get to, but let's understand what's going on in the trade today, what we have to look forward to this week, Scarlett, we are going to set the business week agenda. We've got Gina Martin Adams with this, chief equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. She joins us from New Jersey. As to

Stave Wilson, stocks editor for Bloomberg. He's also in the Garden States. So Dave quickly set the stage for us. Uh, what's underneath this trade. Well, you look at the eleven main industry groups in the SMP five hundred and it it looks rather familiar technology stocks of leading the way. Uh you know, you look at the consumer discretionary category, which is basically Amazon dot Com and it's up. You know,

so kind of a familiar story. Communications services, which is you know, Facebook and U Alphabet, the owner of Google also higher and you know it's really their week, those kinds of companies because you know, you you talk about the four trillion dollar companies in the SMP five hundred based on market value, you have three of them, Uh, you know, reporting on the same day coming up on Thursday.

I'm calling it a triple a afternoon because you get Alphabet, you know, the owner of Google, and Amazon dot Com and Apple. It just goes to show you what kind of week it's gonna be. Uh. You know, something like a third of the SNP five companies were warning today, pretty quiet on that front, but it really does pick up tomorrow and carries through the rest of the week. So you know, it isn't just about the Fed policymakers getting together. It's about what companies are gonna have to

say on their results. Absolutely. Technology is going to be front and center this week. But it's interesting because when I look at the most actively traded stocks by value and I look at foreign common stocks, nine out of the ten most actively traded stocks are all gold miners or precious metals miners, and that speaks to the rally that we've seen in gold prices Gina. Material stocks are certainly in favor right now as people continue to bid gold and silver prices higher. Do we have any sense

of whether this will be reflected in their earnings? Probably not. I mean, I think it's a bit early to expect that the companies are actually going to produce earnings results as a results of the price action in gold. So I do think that the materials sector is most likely to be one of the weaker sectors within the S and P five in terms of actual output um from

an earnings perspective. That said, I do think that if you start looking at value names in the SMP five hundred, you could have an opportunity for a lot of beats to expectations. So if you think about the sort of value styles in a broader set, I've got fifteen stocks on a list of stocks in our high Value Bucket as well as the SMP five hundred peer Value Index

that report this week. All of them are expected to have just really really weak earnings, just kind of tremendous declines, some of them even with negative earnings, and as a group, they're starting to experience positive estimate revision, which is very

different than what Dave was talking about. With the big heavyweight tech companies facing a completely alternative with higher expectations going into their earnings, it's less likely that they can sustain those expectations, where some of the value stocks actually might be able to beat um very very low forecasts. And so, Gina, I believe you told us last this is the single biggest, big, busiest, excuse me week for

earnings right this quarter, this week that we're headed into it. Yeah, there's not going to be any rest for the weary this week. Yeah. So, any I mean, what's the key theme for you beyond what you were just describing and the tech importance here? Yeah, So it's a combination of things. I mean, I think one thing that happened last week that really quite frankly surprised us is for the first time in a long time, despite the fact that every

tech stock that reported earnings last week beat expectations. Price performance was negative. So I think I want to watch that really carefully. Can sticks tech stocks actually live up to expectations? Are heavily gotten a little bit ahead of our skis, and investors are going to sell the news on both tech as well as healthcare and some of the grossy stocks. UM, the opposite may occur with respective value. I think beyond earning season, there's more than just earnings.

Even though this is the heaviest week of earnings and next week is the second heaviest week, we're obviously also contending with the FED policy meeting this week, and we're contending with the fiscal package, which we keep bumping around UM as a possibility or not a possibility, And you know, I think that that has the prospect of creating a little bit of turmoil for stocks as well. So, Dave, when we talk about the FED meeting this week, do you sense a change in tone or in sentiment when

it comes to what the Fed will likely say? Obviously, the environment around US has worsened with the increase of cases across much of the United States. UM. How much of that is reflected in people's expectations of what they

expect to hear from J. Powell. You know, I haven't really run across a whole lot on that score at this point, you know, I mean, given that there's sort of a policy direction that's been set, you know, near zero interest rates and and and some bond bind though they backed off lately in terms of actual purchases, you know, trying to throw money at the economy where they can. I And it does seem like, if anything, they'll try

and redouble those efforts. But at least the policy direction has been set, and what we may get Wednesday just were sort of reinforced where we are when it comes to what the Fed's up to. Right, all right, Well, thank you both so much. You know, Martin Adam's chief equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. She joined us from New Jersey, as did Dave Wilson, stocks editor. This is Bloomberg Business Week.

We are keeping an eye obviously on the virus, those cases continuing to rise across the country, and testing Scarlett certainly front of mind, and we need to understand how it works, where it works, when it works, and how it's all going to be executed. We got the perfect person to talk about that, Neil D. Crescenzo Crescenso, did I say that right now? All right, thank you, I appreciate it. Uh you're the CEO of Change Health here joining us on the phone from San Francisco. Uh, so

tell us about testing here, like, where are we? How should we be thinking about it? Especially when it comes to a typical local community. How's it happening? Well, Jason, I think you made a very important point is that there really is maybe not a typical community. There's a

lot of different types of communities in this country. And what you know, people didn't really perhaps realized prior to the pandemic that only about of lab orders are actually submitted electronically today, and as you can imagine, that's particularly

challenging in a rural or per community. So, um, what we really focus on with our network, where you know, we move around about fifteen billion healthcare transactions per year, were the largest clinical, financial administrative networks in the country, is really helping the doctors ordered these lab tests and making sure that people can get them in the most

convenient and fast fast process possible. In order of course, critically, as we've heard, particularly recently to get their results back, and so we've made access to our nationwide lab network free for all positions, and we have over fourteen hundred labs and over a hundred providing COVID testing on the

net work. Neil, is there a difference between people going to their primary doctor or to an urgent care center or to the hospital to get COVID tests, because I remember reading that ultimately they all get process at the same couple of labs. Well, I think Scott don's a great question, because whe does that really come down to.

It comes down to convenience and people's comfort level with either maybe their primary care physician or an urgent care center they're familiar with, where some other site, whether it's a Walgreens of CBS, etcetera. UM, And you know, right now we've got about thirty six states that are testing less than the recommended level with the c d C. So unless people go in to get tested, they're clearly not going to get the results, and we're not gonna be able to impact not only the testing rates, but

the positivity rates through treatment and contact tracing afterwards. That spend such a challenge in many states, and so if people have a choice of where to go. Where should they go? Well, I think it really comes down to

the individual. Uh, you know, I think that the testing is getting obviously continued to have different sites, additional types of sites, and it's going to come down to, you know, what people are able to do in terms of the convenience for them what they're dealing with in their personal lives, but making sure that it's done in a way that the results are provided back to them as fast as possible, and utilizing the lab network that we and others have

had in place, you know, frankly for decades, but it just wasn't really of course, operating at this level and with this degree of focus. You know, one of the things that's important for people to realize is one are the key priorities over the next few months is also going to be trying to figure out how to get at home testing. One of the things we focused on is connecting our network to be sort of fast growing

companies like you do tests that provide home tests. But we're now seeing the industry leaders like Mayo, Clinical Labs, Lab Core Quests, the big lab companies as they're often thought of, beginning to develop these tests. You can imagine the paradigm shift will have if we're able to get at home testing that's reliable, that will really facilitate people, particularly trying to get back to work or kids going

to school. Well, speaking of kids going back to school, um for students who are going back to university of campuses. Jason and I were talking earlier about how some schools will say that they will be testing students what fairly frequently twice a week for instance, What kind of what kind of problems or challenges do you foresee in being able to execute that not just on one campus but

across the nation. Yeah, it's really a lot of the challenges we've seen Scarlett throughout the pandemic, which is really one of infrastructure. I think all of these universities will point out that they weren't really set up or contemplating doing this ever in the past, and so you know, what we really look at is how can we take infrastructure we've had in place for the traditional settings and

expand them these sorts of settings, including universities. You know, down in Florida and the pandemic started, they have sixty seven counties with clinics that wanted to obviously leverage is part of the testing, and just in a few days we connected them with the commercial labs because we had most of the infrastructure in place to help with the challenges that they continue to have, like many of these hotspots states in Florida, and I think you know, universities

very unusually as you can imagine, are now having to contemplate how they do that as well prior to school starting. And so last question for you and Neil, what's the sort of technology solution that sort of sticks with us here now that all of this tech has been thrown I mean your background was having a big job over the health sector at Oracle. I do wonder how how our lives going to be different even beyond COVID testing when it comes to tech. Only got about a minute

left here. Well, there's gonna be a lot more digital data, Jason, that's going to be used for variety of purposes. So I'd say it's really three things. More data, more connectivity, and the interoperability around that data and connectivity to enable people to basically better maintain or improve health or in this case, deal with a crisis situation like the pandemic. Right, A lot to learn, We're going to be dealing with

this a lot. I have a feeling, especially in this race to a vaccine, we've got to get tested to get back to work, as you point out, and back to school. Neil D. Crescenso is the CEO of Change Healthcare, joiningus on the phone from San Francisco. This is Bloomberg Business Week. But let's get into the world of sports. John Stashower joins us Bloomberg sports reporter on the remote line from Connecticut. Alright, so, John, we saw some baseball

over the weekend. We're gonna see less baseball tonight. How in danger is the baseball season given these positive tests with the Miami Marlins. Yeah, we don't never really know. I think we have to wait for more test results. I think we're at eleven Miami Marlins players right now. There was I think the report of twelve. Least I heard was eleven plus a couple of coaches. One player. First positive tests I guess last Friday, and it's spread

through the team and they are still in Philadelphi. Few of the Marlins were supposed to come home last night or then this morning. They still haven't done it. They're winning on these test results. I mean, if it stays right there at eleven Miami Marlins. You know that these teams have extra players at an alternate campsite, they can bring them up. But who knows. You know, they played the Braves last week in Atlanta, and the Braves were in New York they played the Mets. Now the Mets

are in Boston to play the Red Socks. So who knows how one long this how much this thing can spread around. So John, eleven out of a squad of how many and therefore doesn't mean that the Braves need to get tested as well, and the Phillies need to get tested too, Yeah, I would think absolutely. And you know, as we just talked about, there's thirty. Normally our team in Pastors has had twenty five. They were gonna expand

it to twenty six. Anyway, they're starting with thirty players, uh, and then they have like another thirty, Like there's no minor leagues this year, but they have like a reserves of about thirty players. So yeah, they can replace these eleven players with with other players. But yeah, we have to wait on the test results. Are they more Marlins, like you said, the Braves, the Phillies, the Phillies was

supposed to host the Yankees tonight. That game has been postponed because the Yankees would have been going into the locker room that the Marlins had just used this past weekend. So they didn't want that to happen, obviously, and obviously there's a ton of money on the line. I mean, not to be too cross about it here, John, I mean, baseball basically sort of limped over the finish line to

get these sixty games. They opted not to bubble themselves as some of the other leagues have done, and a lot of folks have a lot to lose players and owners alike here if we if this season doesn't go on, Oh there's no question about it, and a lot of surprise. We haven't heard yet from the commissioner around Manford, but I assume we will at some point today that you know, maybe he's waiting on these these test results. But it's a good point you make about the bubble because the

other sports are doing that. The hockey players have arrived in Canada, they're getting ready to have playoff games this weekend. Um. The NBA players are in this bubble in Orlando. The latest test results from NBA players were no positive tests, so Baseball talked about doing the bubble changed their mind. Some people thought maybe they were thought they were smart because they were going to go to Florida and Arizona,

two places you don't want to be right now. But no bubble, a lot of travel and you know, that's why the Toronto the Canadian government didn't let the Blue Jays play in Toronto because they didn't want players traveling in and out of the country. And my understanding John as well, is that these Marlin's players got tested before they played their game against the Phillies, right and then

they got their results after the game. So they went into that game presumably eleven of them um testing positive. And right now, in terms of context, the league is trying to play when the case number in the country is higher than when sports overall shut down in March.

It's pretty stunning when you think about the broader picture. Well, I mean, if you think back to when this all started, they remember those one NBA player who tested positive, and it was all like, oh my god, you know, and now yeah, they're they're playing with with all kinds of players having the virus testing positive. Um, you know, they

were the report. Originally, as of this morning, there was that four Marlins had tested positive, and you could argue maybe they shouldn't have played a game yesterday, actually won the game yesterday in Philadelphia, But then they got more test results and now we're up to eleven. And I have to think Roger Goodella and others in the National Football League or watching this in a very very worried way, John, Oh, yeah, absolutely, football is a big question mark. They can't have a bubble,

you know. I mean, there's just too man two large a roster, so many coaches and all that, so you know, it's such a contact sport and some of the college players where we're having workouts and we were hearing about, you know, dozens of positive tests as a result of that. College football as a whole other story, you know, with the kids who are not if they may not even have classes and they really have football games. So I'm

sure the NFL is gonna try. You talked before about the money involved, So the NFL is gonna give it a go, but I think there's a lot of questions about whether it'll work. All right, John stash Our, We're gonna leave it there. Thank you so much. Great context and keeping us up to date on a story scarlet that obviously all of us are watching. You and I are big sports fans, and it was great to see

baseball back. But who knows, maybe short lived, or maybe they will find a way through this hard to say. You're listening to Bloomberg business Week, Well, let's dive into the magazine if we can. Bloomberg business Week, this is a story that's on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot com. One of our phase him a parmer. She joins us on the phone from New York City, along with Joel Weber, the editor of Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us from Massachusetts.

You know, I love talking about hedge funds and fees and money in Wall Street. Joel so te this up for us. Uh So, the moment that um Nischanch, who was one of the UH co authors on this kind of spoke up about it, I was like, oh, please tell me more. And obviously the two and twenty UH business model has been a mainstay of the hedge funds in this industry. UM, but we're we're beginning to see UH that get trimmed and um and it's not just

a little trimming. It's a big trim him. And what did you guys discover as you dug into the numbers behind the story? Yeah, so UM in our story, we we're looking at the fee changes over see hedgebund sees them falling for a number of years. But what we're seeing now is not only are they continuing to fall, but you're seeing a lot of UM creative things that hedge funds are offering more concessions UM, such things as one funds offering to cover all investor losses that's almost

never heard of UM. One fund is doing away with performance fees until they hit a threshold. Some firms are lowering their fees in exchange for locking up capital for more time. And what this is reflective of is UM a decline and some of the assets that we're seeing as investors have been pulling away from hedge funds a little bit and demand doing uh lower fees as performances away and just hasn't compared to the kind of returns

we were seeing twenty years ago. Okay, so when we talk about two and twenty, is two percent management fees and is the cut of profits? A lot of people have said that two and twenty has been out of play for a long time. There have been modifications to that. But in your story how much you also talk about

this one or thirty fee model. What does that even mean? Yeah, so one or thirty it's been champion by an L Born And basically what it means is in a good year, as a fun you could charge of the performance and no assets, no fees on the asset side. But in a bad year you would charge just one percent of assets. And what that does is it equals it equals out um the fees that you can charge and makes them

more attractive to potential investors. And this has become increasingly popular with a number of hedge funds, and it's becoming um something that I think allocators are asking for too. So him UM when when you think about, you know, how long the hedge fund industry has gotten UM gotten you know away with this this has been really the normal for for decades now, UM. And obviously this has

some profound impact UM, especially for investors. Uh So we're investors actually saying about this change in tactic because I mean it seems almost like it could have happened a decade ago. UM at this point, UM, you know, is it is it all happening too late? And and how sticky is this money ultimately going to be among institutional institutional investors. Well, investors I think are happy. UM, they

are able to negotiate and get better sees. The bigger the allocator is, the more influence they have, the better fees they can negotiate for themselves. UM. Even the numbers that we've mentioned in our story, UM, an allocator could an investor could demand an even more preferential treatment for themselves if they have a big ticket investment investment that they're making. UM. And etaties have been declining as hedge been. Performance has been souring if we look at it as

a whole. But I think investors over the past few years have been getting particularly frustrated. And as we're seeing this year, UM, this this environment has been hard of funds to trade in. Their performance hasn't been so great and if you look broadly across the space, there has been some outliers, but UM, you're seeing it's just a much much difficult fundraising environment. Is particularly for smaller managers. UM. Some of the money has gone towards the bigger funds.

As you know, it's once you get to being a twenty billion dollar fund um, it's it's a lot harder to lose that stature. But for a small expense, we're just kind of working their way up and trying to gain assets. It's an incredibly difficult time. Those are the ones that especially are having to rethink about rethink their

CE model and their fee structure. So, Emma, when you look at this story, that sort of really nice data driven trend story against a lot of the breaking news great scoops that you've had over the past couple of years around big investors saying, you know what big hedge and investors thing, I'm just going to do the family office thing, or I'm gonna shut it down a little bit.

I mean, those have to be somehow synthesized, right, Yes, And we've seen especially that this year and last year, a number of firms pivots from being a big name hedge funds into a family offers. If we look at John Paulson just just this month, I believe um and so that is that does speak to the broader trend that we're seeing. Also, a lot of big names hedge funds like called to the Jones firm and Alan Howard,

they've had to cut fees in recent years. So you are seeing UM, the old school guard, the big titans of the industry also facing this reckoning that we're seeing in the space, UM having to adjust, having to be more creative as particularly fundamental firms that haven't adapt into becoming more quantitative or included more unique trading methods, they've struggled if they have failed to do that, and that has also been part of the factors if we look at some of the firms that have closed down or

only traded their own internal lasts as well. You know, the thing that reminds me of the bigger picture here is that hedge funds really never got their mojo back after the financial crisis. UM the central bank intervention increased all the correlation between the different assets, that reduced volatility. Yet we did have volatility in the first quarter of this year and it was not a good first quarter for hedge funds. Why not? Why was the volatility not

the right kind of volatility? Right? So you had been focused on a specific kind of volatility, and sometimes if it's too short term and to unexpected, they don't. They find out a lot harder to trade, especially systematic funds. At a computer driven UM, they did a little bit more time to catch up with the spikes and volatility. And so if it's over a short lip and then at random spurts, that's a lot harder to trade than a longer period of vlatility over a couple of months,

which then you can um to make more opportunistic trades. UM. If it's a sudden shock, as we've seen, that has been a lot harder. So that's why I think you've seen a lot of struggles in March, which most fun

firms did did terribly that that month. And if you look at our chart UM and our story we take, we have a line graph that shows the SMP as it as it compares to a hedgebunt performance, and since two thousands and eight you'll see broadly that hedgegunt to have trailed the SMP increasingly with a broader spread UM compared to prior to two thousand and eight. Yeah, sort of defeats the whole purpose of all those fees if you ask me, all right, hemm a parmer, thank you

so much. Great piece of reporting. Check it out on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot com, not surprisingly one of the most read. Hemma headgund reporter for Bloomberg on the phone from New York City. Follow her at Parmar Hemma for all of her scoops. Our thanks as well to Joel Webber, editor of Bloomberg Business Week. He joined us from Massachusett. It's a journal, yeah, but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no, honey, please, I'll do the right vel et me. I want to try it.

Just drive, baby, good questions trying. This is the Drive to the Globe. Thanks. We'll try us on Bluebird Radio. And it is time for the Drive to the Clothes on this Monday afternoon. Jason Kelley and Scarlet Food here with you, and we're joined by Bert White, chief investment officer of LPL Financial, on the phone from Charlotte. Burt, really nice to have you with us. First of all, what's going on down in Charlotte. I'm guessing it is probably about as hot as it is here in the

New York City area. But how's everything going with virus cases and all that has it field there? Well, it is hot, and the good news is that air conditioning is helping when you're staying at home. But no doubt about it, there is, uh, you know, an upward trend of of nervousness around some of the cases that are coming through in this regional area of the South in

general has been a little bit quick to to reopen. Um. It's all that quick reopening and now we're beginning to start to see an increase in cases, and so being careful, is is really what's happening here? Then down here in Charlotte, Well, it sounds like you're doing well, and I'm glad to hear that that's the case. Um. When you look at what's happening around you and then you look at the stock market, is it is there disconnect or does it

make sense to you? Well, I've never seen the market, the stock market and the economy be as disparate um in their absolute results. Um. I do think that's the real watch out for investors though. I think investors want to look at things and determine whether or not it's good or it's bad. You know, like so far earnings is down year every year? Is that good or is that bad? And so the reality is that's not the metric the market nor the economy sort of looks at

it's really is it better or worse? And I think by and large from the market, dow and the economic view, things are getting better both and so to some degree the metric that matters most is actually in harmony between the market and UM and the economy. It's just the absolute levels that are so disparate that's really got things pretty uh pretty confusing. And so Bert, how big of a role does the FED play here? That don't fight the FED mantra? The market by all accounts, at least

partially was up today. Given a sentiment around what we may hear may not hear candidly from j. Pale and his colleagues on Wednesday, where does the FED fit into this equation? I think the FED, frankly is the is the most important, uh way, and the most important words right now, that's the backstop right now. That is the

first relay runner. You know, oftentimes try to talk about these recoveries as being relay races um and what you need is you actually need to have a strong runner, and then they got to pass the baton to somebody else. And the FED is always the first runner in these recoveries, always the first runner, and They've run hard and they've run long. And what I think you're going to hear the FED stay, which they have been saying the last few meetings, is it's time for someone else to take

this baton, and they're trying. They've been trying to give this baton really the fiscal policy, and by and large they've run pretty well, and we'll probably see some more running there. My guess is you will hear pal and you will hear the FED say that they are going to continue to be very dubbish. They're going to continue to support this. I think they're gonna hint to low rates, uh for longer. I don't know what you know. We've

been saying that the FED is lower for longer. I don't know what longer than longer is whatever that is, that is what they're lower. And so I think you're gonna hear more of that news. Yeah, people have interpreted that to mean lower forever or at least in our lifetime. UM. I like the analogy of passing the baton to fiscal policy, and we've seen how fiscal policymakers are are kind of stumbling getting out of the gate. They can't quite get there.

We know the Republicans will be proposing something in the next hour or two. Um, what does it mean in terms of how much it's going to affect day to day trading over the next couple of weeks, Because we're probably not going to get any kind of agreement today tomorrow, but this will be something that's negotiated on. We're gonna get lots of headlines that will conflict with each other, and it's you know, we're gonna go through all the

machinations before something eventually happens. Is the stock market going to be held hostage to that or do people just look past that and assume something's going to come out of it. We'll just we'll just go ahead and and and price in the fact that it will get resolved. Well, I think the stock market is going to try to bully a bit of a response. I wouldn't be surprised if, um, if the market doesn't get some of the more positive, gearing,

forward looking rhetoric on this. It doesn't look good, it doesn't look positive, it doesn't look like it's going to happen in the next week or two. I think you'll see the market through a slight temper tantrum wouldn't be surprised if you see a couple of sharp down days as the market just sort of sends its message that this is really important. This is the next runner in this relay race. It's got to step up and do that. And right now I think sometimes watching them needs to

be shaken just a bit. They've got to shake that sugar tree just a bit. And the market is not afraid to do that. You saw it do that in March. You saw it do it in April, you saw do it something may it will do it if it needs to. I think you'll probably see that happen. If um, if the rehed rick that comes out of Washington is the positive before looking so Bert, I think some of the research that you and your team have done, you know,

talk about this swoosh, this Nike swoosh shape recovery. Um, has that sort of been your consistent view or how has that evolved over time? And what does the latest round of earnings tell you about that in terms of your confidence there? Yeah, that's that's been our view really through the outfit. You know, the reality is we've felt more confident around the direction and the slope that has

been where we've been largely most confident. I think trying to trying to get levels in timing is harder, UM. But I think direction and slope has been really where we've been most confident. And we're still seeing this, uh, this Nike swoop type of move. The reality is coming off bottoms and extremes. It is relatively common to get a very fast, sharp move UM, but I think here going forward, it's going to be a lot harder for those next games, UM, both in economic games and others.

And on top of that, UM, you've got a fair amount of concern around the election, and then also the increase in some of the cases we've seen here um after some of these early reopenings, and so all that mixed together, I think the next part of this recovery is going to be the harder part of this recovery UM, and therefore sort of lends itself to slower growth but still an upward trajectory. Okay, slower growth but still an upper trajectory. Is that better or worse than what we

can expect from Europe? Because there's been a lot more talk about how Europe might provide better opportunities right now, especially after all those countries managed to come together and unanimously agree on the seven hundred fifty billion euro rescue package. The Republicans can't figure out what they want to do, but you have twenty countries in Europe coming up with a solution in thirty seconds or less. Fert Well, I think in thirty seconds or less. The reality is that

that Europe's got some other issues. They've got deficit, They've got a ton of populism that's going to continue to drive that, and so we think that's going to continue to weigh on growth there. Um, we think the United States and to some degree China are really the two places that you're going to see the quickest bounce back here economically. All Right, you nailed it. Great job. Thank you so much for White, chief investment officer for LPL Financial.

Joinus on the phone from Charlotte. Stay safe down there, Stay safe and cool. Uh. The same can be said for those of us here in the Northeast right now. Record temperatures sweeping through New York and Boston as we heard for days to come to Jason, I know, no, it's it's unrelenting. It's unrelenting. Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg. Business Week, Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

Bloomberg dot com, or wherever you get your podcasts. And of course you can always listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News

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