This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.
This is among the most read. You have two crypto lenders with links to South Korea halting withdrawals in quick successions. So it's just a reminder that there's still a lot of risks and a lot of clampdowns when it comes to crypto. So on that. In the new issue of Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Bloomberg News Digital Currencies and Venture Capitol reporter Hannah Miller writing about a relationship to Matt Miller.
Right, No, no relationship that I know of.
I mean it is I believe, the second most comedy in America.
All right, Well, Hannah's writing about how crypto is getting his moment of clarity, but not the one that it wanted. It's a great story. She does us on a zooming our San Francisco bureau. Hanna, I don't know, have you done like you know, I don't know a genetic testing year to find out what is it?
Answers. I'm on there, we would have gotten we would have been notified.
I'm on there too. So no notification.
All right. Well, one industry that's got a lot of notifications if it will, if you will, is crypto. So talk to us about your store, because I think they were looking for, like, you know, recognition, as you say, a moment of clarity. They didn't get exactly what they.
Wanted, right, Yeah. For years, the crypto industry has just been clamoring for greater regulatory clarity, and they've wanted answers. They've wanted rules, they wanted guidelines. They said that they're working with regulators and that to them, there weren't clear processes in place. Well, now they've gotten their answer, and it's not a good one. You know, the SEC is
hammering down on crypto. These lawsuits against Finance and coinbase show that the SEC thinks most of the tokens on these platforms are unregistered securities.
Yeah, so are they right?
Well, you know what, that's an argument that we that's a debate that we could have, right, Hannah, because I think in a lot of cases they seem more like commodities than securities, And you know, Matt Levine always cites the Howie test and it's kind of a fun debate. But it doesn't matter. As long as Gary Gensler and the SEC say their securities, they're going to use their power to shut down any businesses that are dealing in them without a license.
Yeah, that's correct. I mean we've seen a lot of you know, different regulators jocking for power here. You know, the SEC, the CFTC, you know, have claimed jurisdiction over crypto. But you know, the actions taken by the SEC show that, you know, they're serious about this, that they want to crack down on crypto, and that's really put the entire industry in unsteady ground in the US.
So what does it mean. I mean, I've seen a lot of stories, yours included, like we are thinking about what it means for the US crypto industry because outside the United States, right, they're moving ahead.
That's true. Yeah, I mean we've seen, you know, crypto hubs pop up in places like Singapore. Hong Kong is actually having a warmer reception of crypto. The UK is a big market that people are eyeing for coinbase. That's the largest international market that they want to expand into and also, you know in Europe we've seen legislation pass there that you know, the crypto industry sees is more welcoming to the industry versus the enforcement taken by the SEC.
We did have a great story or I guess, a positive story for crypto across the wire earlier today. According to coindesk, black Rocks close to filing an application for a Bitcoin ETF and they would use coin Base as custody as custodian. What do you think about this, Hannah, I mean other people have tried and failed.
Yeah, So I mean in institutional investors, that is the key area for the crypto industry. You know, they want, they still want institutional approval and they feel like that could maybe help carry them through and keep them, you know, on more even footing in the US. So, yeah, this news about black Rock, you know, that's a welcome development both for the industry and for Coinbase. You know, this is a company that is publicly publicly traded in the US, you know, has seen its stock go up and down.
So welcome developments like this are are I'm sure a booster morale there.
That's funny, Carol, because you know, everybody's pushing so hard for a bitcoin etf, as Hannah says, you know, the thought being that it would kind of legitimize the asset class for investors. But there are already a number of crypto ETFs and they've done incredibly well this year, except for the fact that nobody has any money invested in them. I mean we're talking single digit millions.
So how are they doing well?
Then, well, that's the prices have gone, right, but there's no cloths.
Yeah, yeah, so there's nothing into it. Well, I do wonder too, Hannah, you know, go back to you say institutional investors are clamoring for them. I mean, are pension funds like tell me, give me some like color on that.
Yeah. I think there's still you know, sence among pension funds, you know, but we've seen players like Black Crop that been that they still spy opportunity in this space, and you know, that's that's helped crypto enthusiasts, you know, maintain a bullish attitude towards the the lassets that large. So it'll be interesting to see if more institutional players come out about crypto, if they're willing to, you know, publicly raise the flag that they're still interested in this space.
One thing I want to ask you, with the lawsuits that we've seen by the SEC against Coinbase and Binance, they as you report, could drag on for years, and I do want to you cite a case against Ripple that is still ongoing that was back So I do wonder is that good for cryptle, you know, for crypto players? Is that bad?
Like?
How do we see that?
Oh?
Many of the people I've been talking to in the industry have you know, taken it as a good thing that these lawsuits could drag on. You know that maybe something will change, something will shift during this time. You know that they'll actually you know, get a better outcome than just the SEC winning these cases. So that's people have really clung to that as a sign of hope. And you know they're trying to make a game plan here.
They're you know, thinking about changing up their investment strategies. I've talked to a lot of vcs who are pulling back from token purchases as a form investment that they're just sticking to equity because there's this there is this uncertainty around tokens. So it'll be interesting to see how all this plays out how people you know, past the years here.
One problem with these lawsuits is that you can really start to lose market share, right An analyst Dan Dola from The Zoo wrote today that Coinbase is starting to lose market share and crypto trading to Robin Hood.
Yeah.
No, that that's correct. I mean the lawsuit is a big drawback for Coinbase, and you know, people are going to maybe turn to you know, more familiar name like Robin Hood, or you know, be willing to jump ship from Coinbase. So we'll see what happens. But that wasn't totally shocking to me.
I mean, go back to where we started. Are we still figuring out exactly what cryptocurrencies are? Are they a commodity? Are they a collectible? Are they a currency? Are they a security?
Yeah? I think we're still trying to figure that out. I've seen a lot of talk about pivoting from money crypto to tech crypto, so pulling away from like the financial aspects of crypto and looking at how blockchain technology can you know, provide use cases here. You know, you hear talk about Web three, which is the decentralized version
of the Internet based on blockchain. So I think people have kind of tried to pull away from the financial scams and scandals that have just been continuing to rock the industry.
You know, if she was a member of your family, she'd be a huge asset.
I agree.
I'm just going to say, we're just going to put that out there. Hannah, that was incredible, great story. Really, you know, so timely, Hannah Miller, Thank you, thank you. She is our Bloomberg News Digital Currencies and venture capital reporter, Hannah Miller. It's just a great reporter.
Host of the Sam Bankman Freed podcast.
She is, Oh my gosh, why don't we talk about that? Yeah, all right, anybody you know, download it, find it. It tells the story. Yeah, it's very because it's still going on.
Yes, that's a pretty.
Amazing any spoilers, Well, the whole case is still going on as well.
And she's looking at like, who are these two idiots? I mean, oh my god.
If you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or wants us Live on YouTube all right.
We want to talk a little bit about something our Bloomberg Business Week Pursuit's team att covered in a big way earlier this year. It's about the market for sleep tracking devices, some fourteen and a half billion, projected to reach more than sixty one billion dollars by twenty thirty. This as a staggering fifty percent of the population is sleep deprived. You are not.
Well.
Here's the thing. I slip on a sleep tracking device every night because over the past couple of years, I've had to wake up at two o'clock in the morning every day for my early show appearance, and so I wanted to make sure I was tracking my sleep and hopefully getting enough to survive. I only averaged about six
hours a night over the past couple of years. But since since I've dropped that schedule a month ago, I've been averaging more than eight hours a night, and I feel fantastic, like I've come off of an acid trip, Like I can actually think clearly again. It's unbelievable, the difference in cognitive power between being sleep deprived and getting your full solid eight hours.
Well, that's what we want to talk about with Adam Spiro. He's Professor in the Department of Mental Health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, supported as you know by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Adam joining us on zoom from Baltimore. Adam, I couldn't agree more with Matt. If I get a good night's sleep, the world is mine. When I'm not, it feels like everything just hurt and everything's a problem.
So talk to us about the importance of sleep and why we're not all getting better sleep and more sleep.
Yeah, well, you're absolutely right.
Sleep is connected to so many aspects of our health and wellness, from our mood and emotions, to our ability to think clearly, to aspects of our metabolism, to cardiovascular health. You name it, sleep is linked to it, and good
sleep supports good health. More broadly, and yes, a substantial proportion of the US population is sleep deprived, and some of us are doing that because we do not have the opportunity to get the sleep we need due to schedules, demands on us from work, or the social environment like family.
Or caregiving, or you name it.
Some of us are not getting enough sleep because the neighborhoods we're in, or have noise pollution or light pollution. Some of us are not getting enough sleep because we have frank sleep disorders like a clinical insomnia disorder or sleep disordered breathing or sleep apnea. So there are many. But then there are others of us who voluntarily forego sleep because we want to binge the rest of that series, or we are on social media.
So a lot of us are.
Not that as Carol by the way, yeah, I'm Carol has Basically it's so funny because, like.
You know, you need to have a schedule. I think about my dad. He was like so disciplined and up at the same time, went to bed at the same time. I'm not good about that. How how much of that is a bad thing? Like you need to have some kind of regular schedule.
Well, so if you have a sleep problem, we recommend that you one of the first things that you do is set a good standard non varying wake up times, so you wake up at the same time every day if you.
Have insomnia, for example, and that really supports good sleep health.
It is really important, all right, So we wanted to talk about the link between sleep problems and Alzheimer's disease or sleep problems and dementia. And I wonder if it's kind of a chicken and egg thing. Do people who have sleep problems are they more likely to develop dementia or Alzheimer's disease, Or is it people who already have Alzheimer's disease or already experienced dementia they then have sleep problems.
Well, I think that you hit the nail on the head there.
It's a bi directional relationship, is how we're really thinking
about it these days. Where we used to think when we thought about sleep in Alzheimer's disease, we used to think that sleep disturbances happened in people with Alzheimer's disease because their brains changed, and people who either care for people with Alzheimer's disease or clinicians who work with them, family members who might have someone with Alzheimer's disease in the house become quite aware of the significant sleep disturbance
that is really common in that population. So that was the direction that people first thought about, But really, over the last decade or so a little more than that, now people have really come to realize that sleep disturbance is associated with an increased risk for dementia and could well play a causal role in promoting dementia and Alzheimer's disease in particular.
All right, so people who have no excuses are in college. If you don't have to be at work at five o'clock in the morning, you should put down your Twitter, stop watching your Netflix, and go to sleep.
Yeah, he's right, he's right. I get the No, it's just well, why is it that though we have a harder time falling asleep as we get older, and like I was a kid, would sleep until eleven or noon on a Saturday. You know easily, I can't do that anymore.
Well, so you were talking about two different things which are really interesting. So we do notice and oftentimes you mentioned when you were a kid. Teenagers notoriously get mislabeled as because what they end up doing is they can sleep a really long time. And when we're younger that our need for sleep is greater. And the clock in our brain that basically tells us when to sleep and when to be awake is basically telling us to go
to bed later and to wake up later. It's what we call a circadian phase delay and that is one of the reasons that there's been a big push nationally by sleep advocates to move school start times later. But you asked another question, which is as you get older, and I assume you didn't need from child adolescents per se.
I was asking this for Matt because as he gets older. I'm sorry for Adam.
Yeah, well me too. But as people get older, from middle aged to older adulthood, they tend to there are some changes that we believe just happened as part of the aging process, where our short sleep gets a bit shorter, a bit more fragmented, and it becomes import lighter. We don't know as much of that deep restorative sleep. It's harder for us to get and we think that that happens even in the absence of medical conditions. Chronuct medical conditions.
But way more people have sleep problems than would be accounted for by those normal age related sleep changes when you look at older adults, and really the big drivers of those we think are medical problems and medications we take for those problems. That's a big driver of why we develop them, but it's not the only driver.
What do you think about sleep trackers? By the way, we opened up talking about you know, I wear an Apple Watch, but there are a number of other products out there that purportedly track sleep. I think, look looking at the.
Data and.
Assessing, you know, my experience with it, the Apple Watch does a pretty good job. But I noticed I only go into deep sleep for the first, you know, thirty forty minutes of the night, and then I never go back there again. And I don't know if if that's because the watch isn't very good at tracking the stages of sleep, or because I really only had experienced deep sleep at the beginning of my eight hours.
So this is really a great point. There are two sort of issues here.
First of all, we do under normal condition spend more time in deep sleep in the first part of the night and less and less as the night wears on. And conversely, we spend an increasing amount of sleep in rem sleep when we do most of our dreaming as the night goes on. So your watch might be right about you spending more in the early part than in the late part. But I will say this about sleep trackers.
The only way that you can definitively tell if someone is awake or asleep is by putting electrodes or some sort of a sensor on their head so that you can detect electrical signals from the brain. That is the definitive, gold standard measure of sleep. In the absence of that, we cannot rely solely on devices for truth.
For ground truth.
This is isn't awake or asleep, right, So that being said, for decades now, sleep researchers have relied on devices that we've referred to as actigraphs a lot of the time. And these are accelerometers that you would wear on your wrist and they used to be clunky analog things, and they've developed to be quite sleek and now and they basically are accelerometers that and they capitalize on the fact that people and animals as well, by the way, move
less when they're sleeping in general. Yeah, right, and so yeah, but those devices, those trackers, they're not all created equal. I would put it that way and say, so that's something to consider.
I need to get some brain.
Electro All right, You've got to come back soon because I have still a million questions. So Adam, I feel like it just relates. We all can relate to this. Adam really enjoyed it. Adam Spira a professor in the Department of Mental Health at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, joining us from Baltimore. I mean, when I go to sleep, I'm like head to toe with stuff. We'll talk about it later. Maybe what.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
You might remember from the last monthly read on the US labor market, it showed that the unemployment rate increased for black people from April to May from four point seven percent to five point six percent. Black women were the most affected, specifically those who work in the public sector. Again, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, They're unemployment rate increased from four point four percent in April to five point three percent in May. That's a pretty big jump.
And matth there's a new documentary that tracks the paths of three black women, all single mothers, who found a better way forward and jobs in the process. Check it out. We want them to find a job, and then a better job, and then a career.
To imagine myself in a career of posts to just the job was definitely far fetched.
My kid's very proud of me.
I know that I was working very hard district change.
Oh.
I like the journey has changed my life in a way that I could never invasion.
All right again, a new short documentary film. We want to get to the executive producer of video content development and production at the workforce focused nonprofit Working Nation. She's director of the short, Melissa Panzer. She's with us on Zoom from Los Angeles. And forgive me they were three women of color. I just want to clarify that. Melissa. Good to have you here with Matt and myself here.
Tell us a little bit about this documentary. We have, of course heard a little clip, but tell us about these three women.
Sure well.
First of all, Carol, Matt, thanks so much for having me this afternoon. This was These women are just an incredible story, all three of them. There's one woman who immigrated from Jordan who's featured in the film. She didn't speak any English when she arrived in the United States. She lived it in domestic Island's shelter for forty two days.
Upon arrival, her husband kicked her and her children out of their home when it was really, really a horrible situation for her, and she learned English and got herself educated and was able to go to this Goodwill program, and we feature her in our story, and you know, we feature her and two other women of color, both black, who also just fell on really hard times and they all found this program that gave them short term, you know,
quick credentials to get access to really really remarkable jobs, and it was really an opportunity for them to change the lives of their families, their children. They're all single. And now at the end, at the end of the film, you hear one of them saying, you know, how much money do you make now? And they're joking around, and it's quite a bit.
It's quite a bit.
I mean, you know, they're making it at least eighty thousand dollars a year kind of thing.
That's quite a turnaround. Melissa tell us about this program with good Will that you guys are doing. Exactly what are what's the reskilling that's going on?
Yeah, So it's it training program that Google supports and Coursera is it helps with the curriculum, and it's offered at good Wills around the country. We filmed in Nashville, and it's really short term certifications that gets access, that gets folks access who maybe don't have the kind of IT training that you'd expect to need to go into one of these IT jobs. And it's free as long as you qualify for it.
I mean, it's really an incredible story, a story of hope for anyone. Right it's the Goodwill Digital Career Accelerator. Is it only accessible now to women or women of color? Or can anyone skill up with this program?
No, I'm pretty sure you have to meet a you have to be under a certain financial sector to access the program for free. But men, women, people of color, white folks, it really doesn't matter.
And I mean, does it just teach you skills to learn a specific job. Does it teach you general skills and then you go and.
Apply for jobs.
Does it help you do the application for jobs as well? Do you have programs with employers? Yeah?
So, Goodwill something I learned while I was filming this documentary. Goodwill really sees themselves as a handholder from the beginning to the end so of your life. Once you enter a Goodwill job center, you are a client of Goodwill for forever, and so they help. Once you've graduated the program and you have your certification, they most certainly help you with job placement. If that job doesn't work out and you need their health, you go right back and they'll help you again again.
Excuse me.
And for example in this piece, two of the women, Shahira and Kara, they both work for Accenture and that's by way of a relationship that Goodwill has with the local eccentric offices in Nashville.
Well, I think about what you guys do at Working Nation right it's looking at what are some of the big workforce issues. And right now we continue to see despite you know, we got jobless claims today, we still see a tight labor force. You bring out any leader and that's what they're going to talk about. I'm still kind of fighting for talent here. Earlier in the week we talked about nurses and the shortages there, the dynamic and fighting for them. But I do wonder from what
I understand. The Goodwill Digital Career Accelerator, done in a partnership with Google. They provided twenty nine million in funding in grants from Google dot Org. But I do you know here we are spending We're going to get into our Bloomberg BusinessWeek magazine, which is all about artificial intelligence. And you know, we've heard people on our air, you know, talking about if you are in any way trained in the world of AI or coder or what have you,
you are in demand. But Google and other high tech firms have got to be increasingly and continuing to think about their workforce. Going phote in a program like this can certainly help them in terms of training individuals with the right skills.
Yes, one hundred percent. I mean no matter what happens in the future, as we transition into a new age of digital technologies with AI as an example, will always need people who are well at least for right now. We'll need people who are managing those technologies and thinking
bigger and better and something we keep hearing. And the reason I think programs like this giving access and accessibility to the women like Shakira and Kara and Chelsea is because you only know what you know, and you know, underprivileged black women and women of color know what they know, and so they're giving the it world access and eyes into perhaps things that they aren't thinking about when they're building new technologies.
Right, exactly, right. If you start to kind of open up a window and say, hey, listen, if you do this, here's what you can kind of move towards, it's something that they probably weren't familiar with. Melissa, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. Melissa Panser, she's executive producer of video content development and production over at Working Nation, as we said, the nonprofit, and they do focus on workforce solutions. Joining
us on Zoom from Los Angeles. And again, of course that short documentary interesting.
Yeah, very interesting stuff and I think provides real hope. It's great that they have programs like this, and I love to watch documentaries like this. So congratulations to Melissa.
I really do like them.
Yeah, and I think about it. I feel like for years two we talk increasingly about, you know, the tech sector. They're thinking about their workforce and like tapping into you know, middle schools, high schools to make sure kids have the right training. You are listening and watching Bloomberg Business Week on ThisDay, Carol Master, Matt Miller. This is Bloomberg Brother.
Mack a journal.
Now about you let me drive?
Oh no, no, no, no, who's going to drive?
Honey?
Please, I'll do Gravel's I want to drive.
It's good question.
This is the drive to the clothes Well Bernd yelling on Bloomberg Radio.
All right, everybody, let's get to it. We've got just about seventeen and a half minutes left in today's session and we've got a stock rally that it's not just mad about artificial intelligence.
No, it seems to be about the snacks aside. Sorry, I have so many snacks in front of my microphone on but that sometimes any like.
Having a toddler round. It's like I'm hungry.
I just need to growing.
Boy you are yeah yeah yeah yeah.
So yeah no.
There there seem to be a lot more drivers of the rally, and oddly the FED is part of that, even though the dock plot suggests they're going to raise rates two more times.
Right, right, no rate cuts folks this year. All right, so let's see what our guest has to stay. Brian Railing is with us. He's head of Global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, based in Saint Louis. Here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio at Bloomberg Headquarters in New York City. Brian, it is good to have you here with us. Good to see the market spreading out breath in terms of gains. I think Gena Martin Adams, did you say sixty stocks in the s and P
five hundred hitting above two hundred day moving averages. You weren't listening because you were getting stacks. Let's go to Brian. Let's go to Brian. So what do you make though we are widing out in terms of breath?
Yeah, I mean I think, quite frankly, the stock market. I'm a fixed income god, but the stock market to me seems to be you know, it's kind of in a summer fling. Quite frankly. Bad news is good news. Good news is good news. Any type of news is good news. It just wants to go up. But I think if you look under the surface, you look at what the FEDS saying, I don't know how long it's gonna last. Maybe maybe it can last through the summer,
but I don't think it is sustainable. The bond market taken this stock market.
It's like you guys compete with each other, right, like when you know bonds are yielding like they have, right, they're looking pretty attractive without maybe the risk elements.
Exactly, very attractive without the risk. But also you look at what the bond market's saying. The yield curve is still inverted, and the inversion is version.
How many times has it happened every time the yield curve inverts like this, we have a recession?
No, I thought, it's like you have to have to have a recession, you have to have an inverted yield curve, But every time it inverts doesn't necessarily.
Almost always almost And this is this is a lot, right, this is this is big. We're almost back to the just look at.
Could they touch a go recession? Couldn't it?
Well, I mean I don't think so, but I think that is the Goldilock scenario, that that the market and again good news is good news, bad news is good good news, you know. I mean, I don't know how you could look at that f o MC statement and the press conference yesterday and come come come away doing high fives like it seems like the equity markets day.
Well, we're still trying to figure it out, right, yeah, I mean they the dot plot suggest they are going to hike two more times, and before yesterday the argument was definitely one more hike and that was it. Plus we were still pricing in cuts this year now and yesterday Powell, I don't know if he misspoke or if he's just trying to drive a point home, but he said, you're talking about a couple of years folks before we cut.
Absolutely. I mean this ends in in one of two ways in my opinion. Either the Fed has to continue to hike to bring inflation under control and keep rates high. I don't think that's a great outcome for the stock market, or if the market is right, because the market is still you know, the market's not pricing in these additional hikes that the market if.
You look out for their u the pond market ecomic both both okay both.
And if you look out, you know, you start to see in the future to start to see some cuts next year, et cetera. Right, which, of course the FEDS that they're not doing. So either you know that scenario in or scenary too, something breaks and that's how you get the Fed to start cutting rates and just great news, right, I mean, yeah, exactly, we got more.
Banks failing and it moves behind Regional to Wall Street, then you're in real trouble exactly.
So that you know, that's why I think we're kind of in what I'll call summer fling.
What are the flows that you're seeing, Well, you know you're seeing so a lot of investors coming up in Saint Brian. I want more exposure of the fixed income side.
You know, we had a lot of that earlier in the year. You're seeing much less. Obviously, you're seeing the bearish sentiment decrease. People I think are kind of tired of hearing about recession and bearish and so you know, it looks like the you know, the AI started it, and it looks like it's just back to buying equities
for now. But again, again, I'm a bond guy. But you know, you've seen earnings start to come down, right, I mean, I think they're they've been falling a little bit kind of I don't want to call it.
So our equity analysts just talked about margin stabilization and improvement, and we are talking about you look at some of the inflationary numbers, right, some of the material costs are coming down for companies and that's a good thing. Okay, but you don't buy it.
I mean, I just don't see how sustainable if inflation is going to come down. If it's sustainable, then inflation is going to stay elevated, and then the Fed has to go much harder than the markets think.
Can I ask you yesterday we're talking about the Ken Griffin story. He said he's embracing private credit, for example, much yield and high yield as well as we get closer to a recession. Does that make sense? If you're worried of a recession next year, do you want to be buying private credit and high yield debt.
It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. I mean, we are unfavorable on credit. I mean, credit spreads are near kind of their tights here for in the trading range like around four hundred or so, depending on what index you use. You know, it makes no sense to me. Again, if you're going to have a recession or you know you're gonna can tinue to have rates move higher on the short end, making borrowing costs more expensive. You know, I just don't think the reward
is worth the risk. Quite frankly, I have to be compensated much better.
So where do you want to go. Well, in the fixed income world.
Sure, short term is the easy place to hang out. You're getting paid great to hang out in the short end.
So US treasuries for the most part US Yeah, yeah, because you start to get you know, developed, you start to have the currency currency play, and it's not nearly as pure.
You know, we got very aggressive last October around four and a quarter on long bonds. We're seeing rates start to kind of tick back close to there. So if we saw you know, tens go four to four and a quarter, you know, I would be locking that in all day long.
Because do you think it's going to go for in a quarter?
Yeah, I think of the FED, which I do think the Fed you're talking, yeah, because I think the FED is going to have to hike hike more, just like they've said, and that should bring tens up a little bit, you know, I mean, it just should lift the curve a little bit. And to me, locking in those rates, if you believe the FED is going to bring inflation back down to two percent, you know, locking in.
Four to four in a quarter is fantastic.
Exactly exactly. So it depends if you believe the FED or not. I believe the FED. I believe there's nothing more important to them than bringing inflation back down.
Do you think that two percent target is real and they're going to get there?
Yeah?
It was.
Again the market doesn't believe. The market's like, oh, maybe they'll change their mind. They'll be at the high two's, there'll be three something exactly. I don't think so. Again, I think the market's got it wrong. I really do believe the FED is going to get inflation back down to their targets. They are all their credibility relies on it.
He does seem so serious about it. He doesn't want to repeat the mistakes.
And a fixed income dude, though sometimes.
Right it is especially much harder than this.
It's hard being anything. Last year, it feels like, nice to have you here, Thank you. Yeah, I appreciate it. Safe travels. What do they talk about in Saint Louis got fifteen seconds? What's top of mind? Do they are they obsessed with the FED like we are?
Well, I think if you're in front and on Saint Louis, it's the cards. They're not good, you're awfme. So that is the topic of conversation and not in.
A good way all right, Brian Railings, safe job as head of Global fixed income Strategy. Will's part of your investment instituted here in our interactive brokers studio you're listening to launching the Bloomberg Business Screen.
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