Colleges Embrace a Post-SAT Future

Bloomberg Business Weekend iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on the Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg clovel News shutting down again. I do feel like that's our theme right now. More companies and even cities telling workers in an individuals to stay home city group we mentioned telling staffers here in the New York City metro area to work from home again through

the holidays if they can. Starting the recent rise in COVID nineteen cases in the region, and then we saw what I think, almost half of workers in the city of London not going to the office on Monday. What does it mean for for here? Well? In New York City. The Health Commissioner said that COVID nineteen data show a quote alarming trend and predicted a further increase in the case curve. Yeah, it's it's just kind of where we are. That's the snapshot. Hey, let's get some thoughts on the

current headlines and where we are as well. Ruth Aaden is a founder of the Johns Hopkins Berman Institute of Bioethics, Professor of Biomedical Ethics at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, which is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, Founder, Bloomberg LP, and Bloomberg Philanthropies. She joins us on this Thursday from Martha's vineyard. Um, Dr Payden, nice to have you here back with us. How are you? I'm buying Carol and nice to be with you and Kim again.

So you do look at what's going on the pandemic, um through an you know, ethics or bioethics lens. Having said that, Um, what does that say to you right now in terms of rolling out the vaccine? Where we are in the pandemic seeing you know, another rise in cases? Yes? Well, what it takes to me? I think three chief things. The first is that we should not panic. We have the tools in the toolbox and we know what to do.

So from the stample in each of these individuals, it's the same message, the same message to the same message, and get vaccinated, encourage other people to be vaccinated, get boosters if you're eligible and live in the United States, be more broadly eligible, and wear masks and indoor spaces whether they're required or not. So that's the messaging. Now,

that's number one. Number two, remember that we are concerned not about everyone equally, but about some people, especially so for those of us who are under sixty five, who are otherwise healthy, who's been fully vaccinated. This, especially if we get our boosters, this should not be a particularly difficult way. But but for people who don't hit that description, this is not a nothing and we've been talking about how it produces mild disease, but it probably produces so spectrum.

We're just adar to be. We're older Americans and people at high risk an ethics matter, Get vascinated and protect yourself again around higher risk people. What's interesting because yesterday Drew Armstrong, senior editor for US Healthcare here at Bloomberg News, had the big take talking about hospitals in Kentucky that I have been under strained in the idea that when a hospital does go under strain, that other people are affected, even if they are irrespective of COVID. Right, if you

have a car accident, you can't get care. So that's from an ethical perspective too, So we've been thinking a lot about that. What about from the perspective of the United States having access to boosters when many people around the world don't even have access to that first shot?

And I got a lot of flak when I when I sat on Twitter that I was that I was boosted because somebody who listens to the show a lot got in touch and and essentially tweeted at me and said, how did it feel to get a booster when people are in the world haven't gotten their first shot? What are the ethics all right? So, Tim, that feels awful. So when answer to the person who went back at you,

of course it feels awful. And I have for a long time been in the camp saying we need to concentrate on making sure that we have an equitable global distribution of vaccine, and we are so far from that it isn't even funny. We are now in a kind

of ethics tragedy of our own making. If we had been more committed to global equity from the beginning, we would not be in the terrible situation of being faced with a strain that really does appear to require a third dose to get back to the kinds of protection we have had previously, when, as it's just rightly said, there are large plots of the world's population who have the ac their first dose. This is an unconscionable situation. Yeah, I feel like there's no easy answer, no right answer, um,

or maybe no wrong. I don't know. I just I think most people would say right, if you can get it. I mean I felt that way in the early on getting the booster. I wasn't I was able to get it, but I've felt like I wasn't the most vulnerable, and so I backed off and canceled an appointment, and then you know, a couple of weeks later, it was like, go get it if you can. And so I think we're all finding our way through it, um, and we

know the arguments about getting political. Uh, what's your visibility about maybe where we are six months from now, I'm curious. It does feel like we're better than where we were one year ago. I'm unclear about where we will be one year from now. Um, how do you see it? All? Right? Don't we say two things social on the point you just raised, it all from the from the standpoint of

some individual ethics. Right now, it just is the fact that vaccine that is being offered as muster doses to Americans will not be sent to people outside of this country, right, they will not, Right, So go ahead and get your booster shot. At the same time, advocate advocate advocate well, greater involvement, greater investment on the part of our government in meeting the goal of global equity. So do both.

That's on that first point. Anybody who tells you where we are going to be six months from now, good luck to them, my cology. Your second point, But there are some sitelines. I mean, with all humidity, humility, I mean, like everybody be humble here, right right. I listened a lot and work a lot with colleagueses, wh show and US policy levels. With any luck, with any luck, we will be in a much better situation which respect to global vaccine and supply by first and second quarters of

two fingers crossed. Dr Ruth Faden have a safe and happy holiday season, founder of the Bourbon Institute of Bioethics at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Remember Tim, we talked about this story this week about how colleges are embracing a post pandemic future that increasingly does not include those standardized tests like the S A T. Yeah, where

was this twenty years ago? That's what I'm wondering. Oh, yeah, really, we'll do like guys, anyway, let's get to it. Um, she's got this story. More Bloomberg News Higher Education finance reporter Janet Lauren on the phone in New York City. Janet, good to have you here. So our S A T standardized testing, I mean, are we looking at a world where they may just go away completely? Well, we've been seeing announcements in the last couple of months that, um,

you know, are continuing these trends of S A T optional. Uh. It started, of course during the pandemic when kids could not get to test centers to take the test. UM Stanford announced the last month that current juniors wouldn't have to submit them. And also some of the some of the optional um requirements have gone to sophomores like Columbia and Cornell, and Amer said current sophomores don't have to submit them. And also several graduate schools are saying, you know,

you don't have to submit testing as well. So, you know, once you've had these optional requirements for years and years and years in the University of Chicago has been test options kind of hard to go back for these schools. And really the biggest influence is the University of California system with in those three hundred thousand students and if a large number of kids who live in California not taking them, you know, how do you say, well, just for us take the test? Huh? Well, okay, So what

does this mean for how college is sort? And I think of the sorting hat and Harry Potter, because that's not something that these colleges have, right, you don't find out where you're going. And one way that colleges did that traditionally was through different metrics, including standardized tests. So what are they doing now, especially you sees that are you know, with so many applicants. Right, Well, they've always used said they've always said grades are going to be

the most important. So they want to see what you've done in your classes, How have you performed? Are you taking the most rigorous and um, you know, some schools have been sa T optional for a very long time, like Bowden College in Maine has been sa T optional for over fifty years. Um, there's a lot of other

ways to look at an applicant. Um, if you want a test proxy, you could still take some AP test, which I'm sure the college board would would like because the exactly Um, however, UM, you know it'll be interesting. You know, how are school is going to look at you know, how how are kids using their time? Because now suddenly if they're not studying for these tests, things have a lot more time. And we um, we had a young woman in our story saying, you know, she

took it. She did, Okay, it wasn't worth it to admit it, so she you know, she took more hours in her job scooping ice creams. I think colleges will be interested to see what kids do with all this extra time and you know they still have to get good grades. I thought, Um, the last line in the story was very instructive from the dean of admissions at the University of Chicagogan, which hasn't required them for years. You know, it's you know, by not submitting a test score, um,

you know, you can't hide your grades. And if you have a lot of seeds that's not you know, that doesn't give you a proxy for thinking you're going to get into one of those pots. Janet, is it is it optional? Is it optional? Or is it don't submit it? Because I do wonder about when it's optional and if somebody does submit it, does it give them potentially an edge?

And just got about thirty seconds. I think if your grades are are very strong and your test score is very strong, it's not really telling the schools anything different, all right. It's an interesting trend, right, It's one of those things that's certainly to coming out of the pandemic that has been a much more active and aggressive conversation than before. Jannet Lauren, get to hear your voice. I ran into her up on the link yesterday. It was so nice to see her. Next time we'll get her

in the studio. Yeah, exactly, Jennet Lauren, Higher Education, Financial port up Bloomberg News on the phone from New York City. By the time Lag goes to college, I welcome this to That's all I'm saying. It will be the we'll think about all the stress, the sorting hat, the sorting hat. Yeah, he'll be picked by a robot to go to robots school to learn how to program robots fingerprint and somehow they'll know exactly, like the perfect fit form exactly retinal

retinal like stan something weird. Look, I think that you know, this is a source of anxiety for so many people, and they're also like all the all the big studies about bias, right, you know, who can afford to actually prep for these things? But as you and I said, okay, so what if it's more important the essay wealth Your kids can maybe afford somebody to help them write it.

It's just a weird process. Great, This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. How many times have you talked to this dude today? This is my third time, that's only going to be my second. I mean I could go all day with Mike Reagan. I agree, I agree, all right, folks. The cover story of business Week magazine, it's a takeover the finance section, actually really taking over,

uh this particular coverage. It's a detail look at a year that's our market headlines dominated by retail traders, meme stocks, cryptocurrency SPACs. It was crazy writing about it for Bloomberg business Week. Is Mike Reagan, senior editor for Bloomberg Markets. He's with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Mike story is the cover of the brand new issue of Bloomberg business Week magazine. I just got my hands on it. You can get your hands on it at newsstands and

online at Bloomberg dot com, slash business Week. That this is great because it's so overarching, and if we think about where we were in the rise of the retail trader, meme stocks, n f T s, crypto Milania, Trump just coming out with an n f T earlier today, we were just talking about it. How are we going to look back on this year? Yeah, definitely a crazy er. I mean, I think what's really interesting is just this confluence of events that you know, we've never seen before

in history. Knock on would we never see again, but you know, sort of the seeds being planted. I think even before the virus, you know that this move to commission free trading, for example, I think is something I didn't get into detailing in the story, but I think

it's part of it. And sort crypto reaching its adolescence, and all this happening right at a time where suddenly we all found ourselves locked at home, um with some extra money, you know, whether it be from the government stimulus payments, just from not being able to to go out and spend it on other things, and you know, everyone kind of turned to their computer screens for I think, you know, not only entertainment, but also the sense of community,

the sense of you know, the need to interact with other people, and people stumbled into these social media rabbit holes, whether it be Wall Street bets on Reddit or you know, the the discord chats where all the crypto people hang out, UM to Twitter and even you know, just text messages

among friends. And you know, I talk about the notion of identity investing, the notion that you know, these communities are formed and people sort of gravitate to them, and suddenly you have a new fundamental driver of of asset prices. I think, you know, it's not necessarily the cash flow that the company's spinning off that is the important driver of the stock. It's doesn't have a community of people that have invested interest in it UM that's even goes

beyond their investments. You know, I clearly I think game Stop comes from people who were gamers, who shopped at that store as a kid, AMC movie lovers, and then cryptic just poking the bear which is known as traditional Wall Street just say, absolutely, it's pretty remarkable how it really caught a lot of traditional investors, you know or

big you know, institutional firms off. God. Absolutely, and then you know this kind of this overarching sense that the market was this plaything of the big money institutions and hedge funds and kind of very much a rebellion of that. And that's a theme that goes through both the you know,

the crypto boom. I think it is similar, you know, people trying to sort of recreate a new financial system outside of the traditional system UM and for some of the meme stock traders trying to really knock out, uh, some of the big players in it who were short these stocks. So you use the term identity investing, what

does that mean? It kind of means, you know what I'm talking about with these communities, that you you have sort of an affinity to an investment um based on you know, whether it be you're an old video game player who shot the game Stop as a kid, or or someone who just got a laugh out of dogecoin and Sheba, you know, you know the knockoff of dogecoin.

Carol's laughing because knockoff of dogecoin, right, it's a joke of a joke, right, right, and you know it's easy to roll your eyes and laugh at it, but it really happened. And I think it's you know, it's something in a way. I feel like, you know, the horses out of the barn now on this type of activity, and you know, it's hard to believe we'll see another year's wild, but I think that you know, you have

to sort of take this trend seriously. Well, let's talk about that, because if the if the horses out of the barn, and perhaps we won't see another year as wild as we saw in one. For a handful of factors, what do we see in two? Because commission free trading unless something happens payment for order flow that's not going anywhere. That's not that's not going anywhere. So there's certainly there will always be the ingredients the recipe in place. I

think what will be different about this upcoming years? We people had these swollen savings accounts. Um. You know, even if you were unemployed and you collected unemployment, you were getting more than a lot more than you would have otherwise a lot of people getting more than what they made at their jobs. So you know, it almost I think for a lot of people felt like betting with house money. Right. It didn't feel like you're really putting your own savings at risk because this was sort of

surplus newfound cash. So I think that pile of money, that excess savings is going to get drawn down in a couple of ways, you know, either deflation of these asset prices as one or just people spending it out. Well, that's point I said to you earlier when we were taping for our weekend show, this this story in there. Um, I love your last line. You know, remember the reality maybe virtual the money you're investing eight and it's it's one thing when everything's going up and it can feel

like wow, I'm really onto something. But let's remember something like cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, you know, these things are really volatile. They are and you know, and you don't even really have to tell crypto investor that they're glue. They have their their quota and they understand it, and it's it's part of the I think, appeal of it. If you wake up on a Saturday morning and ethereum or bitcoin is down, it's you know, all of a sudden you

have a chance to get it at a discount. But you're right that, you know, if the tide you know, to use the famous word buffet thing, if the tide goes out permanently um, it certainly could be come as a surprise to many investors. I do think a lot of this is people's not necessarily their main nest eggs, their retirement money. It's kind of, you know, a smaller budget that they have set aside for you know, I can talk talk about it like lottery ticket money. You know, what,

what's your budget for lottery tickets? And I think for some people it's that granted, a bigger budget on lottery tickets than you probably want, want, or should have, But you say it's changed investing forever. So what's the lasting part of this? I think it's these communities and this this herd behavior. You know, I always think back to the old investing clubs. You know, you get a bunch of little ladies in a room together and have tea and you all and they'd all invest the same way.

Peter right right, This is that times a gazillion, I think, And I think that's what's here to stay. Is this this herd tribal uh investing that we've seen. And you know, you don't have to join a tribe permanently. You could be in the dose coin tribe one day and then go back to the games Stop tribe. And I think, you know, there's gonna be a lot of sort of chasing the next where the next crowd is going, okay

before we let you go just in forty seconds. N f T s here to stay, I think absolutely, And I think but not in the way we think of them. I don't think it's just gonna be j PEG's. I think they're there. There's a lot more potential and sophisticated smart contracts as they call it um going forward, and n f T s are are sort of the you know, the poster child for that. It's not buying Milan's eyes. Well, you think of these word ape yacht clubs. You know, it's a it's a picture of a funny ape. But

there's more to it than that. You you get a member ship in this online community. So if this metaverse thing really takes off, um, I think there's gonna be more to it than just the pictures are buying. Well, you know, with Bloomberg's restrictions, I without it for good or bad. That's a policy that's good all of us from a lot of a lot of foolish moves. It's great coverage in the magazine. Check it out the cover story. There's moving, different moving parts to it, but a great story.

Mike Rere again, Senior editor, Bloomberg Markets in our interactive broker's story. Uh that new issue on newstands, online at business week dot com and of course always on the Bloomberg terminal. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. This is among I believe you're most right on the Bloomberg It is indeed, in fact, it is the number one most read story in the past eight hours on

the Bloomberg. Doesn't seem like corporate Americas on a path toward normalcy. A new wave of COVID uncertainty upending business plans from Wall Street to Silicon Valley. We've seen a plan out in real time. Especially, I feel like in the lasts we have Jenny Serina's finance reporter for Bloomberg new she's with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. I mean, I hope you're with us for a while, and like we don't have to all go and work

different places because wherever. Well, look, we were joking and not really even joking, but we were talking during the break that this really feels like, you know, it feels like yesterday, yesterday with the cancelation of the JP Morgan conference, the health conference right that to me, it feels like it's set off some sort of wave where we're just seeing banks say and companies say, okay, work from home,

we're canceling holiday parties. Was that some sort of turning point and give us bring us up to speed on what's happened since then? Yeah, I think it definitely felt like that was one of the many kind of cracks in the industry's efforts to keep offices restocked through the holidays. Um. So yeah, I think banks are in a different position than a lot of other companies because they were pretty aggressive and bringing folks back, So that means they've had

folks there these past few weeks. People came back from the Thanksgiving holiday. Cases have shot up across the street, and now everyone's pretty much saying, Okay, you guys can work from home. Um, you know, stay safe, enjoy your holidays. So that's kind of the state of plan banking. I think Tech they haven't actually brought their people back yet, so their big Dave is just once again delaying a

return to office. And I think we're seeing over there a lot of those folks are just saying, you know what, we're sick of setting a date just and definitely you're working from home and we'll figure it out when things It was summer January through the dates out the window. Yes. Yeah. And then someone was saying it feels like groundhog Day, and it definitely does. Um, it definitely feels like we're just kind of going through the same motions over and

over again. But what's the psyche that's going on? I think within the Wall Street community. And I do wonder about the significance of Jamie Diamond coming out and doing something. He really is looked too as a barometer in terms of what can we do, what's okay to do? I feel like I mean, and so Diamond has been probably the most vocal about the importance of offices and how much you it's those, um, you know, folks be back and bankers on the road and people meeting with clients

and and so that was a big turning point. Um. But I think honestly it's almost you know, he had companies pulling out left and right, So I don't know that he had that much of a choice in the end. Um. But it's definitely a disappointment I think for all these CEOs who just feel really strongly that FaceTime is the way forward. UM. But I also think, you know, it's it's a very odd discord because I think a lot of folks are still doing kind of what they want

to in their normal lives. You know, people are going on to dinners, um. Broadway is still happening, lots of different cultural stuff, football stadiums are full, like the whole nine yards, and then in the office you just have this very different, um, you know, approach. It's interesting the conversations we have in and around, certainly the news room and I know certainly in my personal life, of of people saying I keep hearing people are like, I'm tired

of commuting. I'm happy to work, I will do whatever I need to, but I'm tired. Like the pandemic showed me, I could work at a lot of stuff done still do everything by I had a little bit more balanced. And I do wonder if whether it's the Wall Street community or CEO's overall, are just kind of missing a really big message that's going on and maybe not want

to be, especially in a tight labor force. Yeah. I think that's definitely right, and I think, you know, the tech people probably feel it a little bit more acutely, just because those folks, I mean so many engineers and

data scientists really can do it all from home, right. UM. I think in Wall Street a lot of times you think about those like the investment bankers, the folks that get on the plane and pitch CEOs on big deals, and it's a very um I mean, it's a very FaceTime friendly industry, and so I think it's just an adjustment period and we'll see if you know, Wall Street comes around to the UH the new way of working, or if Wall Street kind of forces its way forward

and says we're tired of you resisting. You need to listen. We're talking about Wall Street, We're talking about the big banks. But as you write in your peace, Jenny, this goes beyond the big banks. I mean, think about what the headlines we've seen from colleges where a high proportion of students are vaccinated. You did right that Hans Vestberg, the CEO of Verizon, just closed yesterday that he tested positive recently for the virus. He's been quarantine at home with

mild symptoms. What does it all mean post holidays for especially when it comes to the banks, Do they get people back there? I think, I mean, if we learned anything from post Thanksgiving holiday, as soon as folks got back a few weeks in, we've seen a real rising cases across the street, and so I think that is going to probably stay with these banks for a while. I mean, nobody likes to do the contact tracing and

inform their employee. It scares people. So I think, you know, I think they'll probably take it slow in January, um and we'll probably start to heal feel that same kind of drumbeat, like let's get back in, let's get back to work, you know, come February or maybe later in the month in January. But I think for now everything is pretty much on its back foot and kind of realizing the situation that we're in and having said that,

you know, we do know how this plays out. We know what happens in cases spike, and so we also know how to quickly kind of clamp down on it. And it is I feel like a little bit refreshing for these CEOs to say, Okay, let's just let's just shut it down. We know what to do here. Yeah. I mean, I think that it helps that this time they know that there's a playbook that they know people can do it. It's not like March and that sense where they're kind of sending folks often to the ether

with no idea what was going to happen. You know, everyone's pretty adapted at moving to the whole work from home set up Brown hog Day all over again, or Deja Vu all over again a little bit of that. Um, Jenny, thank you so much. And I've been really busy some great reporting all over the place from you when it comes to all things Wall Street. Jenny Serene, Finance reporter

at Bloomberg News in our Interactive Broker studio. But this really does feel like her story, and just the headline after headline of shutdowns rolling back is our big story it is. I'm curious to see what happens after the holidays. As I mentioned, the anecdotal data that I see with people just lined up outside of urgent care facilities to get tested. Right now, we've all seen it if you live in New York City. To what extent are those people being tested so they can travel and be with

family during the holidays or are they feeling symptoms? We don't know. We do know that the curve though here in New York City is rising. Um and Health Commissioner is not happy about it. And what happens with schools and especially kids that are in grade school, middle school, younger if they start to shut down the impact of that. Now, but you let me drive, Oh no, no, no, no, this is all right, Please, I'll go. I want to drive. It's a good question. Good drive. This is the Drive

to the Globe on Bluebird Radio. Alright, just got about ten minutes left into today's trading session. We are getting ready to wrap up the Thursday trade. A very different tone from what we saw posts that fed decision yesterday. We are bouncing off our loads of the session, but big tech tech in particular. If I take a look at the NASAC, it is down about two point six percent,

down three hundred ninety three points in today's session. So if you're looking for where investors are kind of running for the exit, it is certainly among those big tech. Having said that big tech, still, if you want to look at out performance for the year one, it's big tech. Yeah, it really is. But if you look at the NASTAC on Carol thirty, only thirty of the one stocks in the n S actually in the green. Let's talk about this in more with Gary Black, portfolio manager at Future

Fund Active E TF. He joins us on the phone from Chicago. Gary, how are you great? Thanks for having me join you. Well, let's talk a little bit about about tech and big tech today. Um, what was the big change between yesterday and today when we saw tech rally after we heard from Fed church er own Powell versus today, what changed. Well, I think you're seeing a little bit that the market is suddenly worrying about a Fed policy mistake because you know, you see, obviously you heard,

you know, the tapering will be accelerated. People are starting to think, okay, that there's gonna be three interest rate hikes next year. Um. But then when you look at the tenure treasury, you know, um tenure treasury is continuing to follow the yield, so you got the yield down

to one four three. So while the Fed is saying, look, we're gonna take three hikes next year, at least the dot plot implies are gonna take three hikes next year, three hikes in three And you know that, as they call it, the so called term will, it'll be about too one. The tenure isn't moving up the ten years at one fourth thrace. So the bond market is I guess, you know, a little skeptical of that. So then you think about technology. Usually when rates go down, um, you know,

longer duration assets such as technology, technology get hurt. But I don't think it's that so much as people are saying, well, maybe there's a mistake on the horizon, they're um, you know forward, Well, if you start moving rates up, let's suppose that you know, the tapering is not a big deal. That's just qui qui is going to continue it. You know, it'll be sixty billion next month and thirty billion the

following month and it will disappear March. So it's just you know, no more funds being added to the system, and that's q E. And you're seeing the ECB announced the same thing that they're tapering wind in March. But if rates start moving up, which is what you saw last night, the Bank of England surprisingly raised it's it's you know, minor amount fifteen BIPs to forty BIPs. If you start seeing raids move up three times next year, you know there's always a risk that the FED is

tightening while demand um is starting to fall. And you know, the big wild card here is COVID and if COVID you know, continues to spread and and and you know close and this is a big worry, um cancelations of shows, restaurant closings, UM, school closings, and then you're going to see a hit to GDP, which is what you saw back last March, you know, two thousand twenty when COVID hits, So you could have the same time as growth slowing dramatically,

you could have the FED tightening. Now. I don't worry too much about that because I think the Fed is smart. J Pal you know, in the past, has has talked about transitory inflation, and we can get in you know, whether inflation is transit or not. You have to define what's transitory. But I do believe that if you see COVID continue to um, you know, be more rampant, and if you see economic roaths start to slow, um, they'll they'll quickly reverse course if they have to. It's great,

that's what you're seeing. To the markets afraid of this our New Economy Daily on newsletter that came out this morning, and they set a big threat the Lady economist Rudiger jorn Bush once saying that the most that most US expansions are murdered by the Federal Reserve. I mean it's a policy misstep. Having said that, you've got a fun you've got the future fun active ETF. I think it's off about seven percent since its inception. I guess it

began trading late August August this year. Now as that one hundred up about four percent in the same time frame, you are still though deciding whether to add positions or sell positions. What have you done in this environment? What changes have you made to that portfolio? And your top holdings include names like Tesla, Alphabet tenst and Harley Davidson correct and so you know the stuff that is getting hurt. Uh and as market it takes something like Tesla. You know,

it's it's what we call longer duration equity. You know, most of the cash flows come towards the end. You know, they make money, but you know as the growth accelerates over the next three or four years, where they really start making my where the value is is more in the you know, five or six years out um. And so those longer duration assets as people worry about inflation, as interest rates rise and then they were talking about the ten year treasury. If the tenure treasury starts rising,

you're to see the longer duration assets get hurt. And so you know, names like a Tesla are not going to do well in theory in that environment. So do you sell? Do you buy into that more? It's down Since early November, you've been buying yes. And the reason is because there's nothing, no change of fundamentals. When you look at earnings revisions, which is you know it's the it's the Cell Sides estimates of volumes and earnings forward, they've actually gone up. The only reason Tesla is down

twenty only reason is because Elon Musk. Because you know, he's in a very convoluted way. He's been selling shares and when you know, you when when normally want a CEO cells, let's call it two percent of the the flow, which is what he wants selling. You know, they would just call up Goldmen or Morgan Stanley and they would say, do a secondary and let's get it done. It would be a three or four percent haircut. Here he's been

selling shares now for six weeks. And you know, if you're a long only portfolio manager or if you you know you want to add to the position, you're gonna wait until after the selling is done to do that. So this is a very different situation. And I think, you know, like something like Google, which is not down that much. Google is you know, very cheap stock relative to its growth. Um, you know it's going to do fine in its firement. But but Tesla will do fine

once Elon stops selling. Okay, let's go from from teslata Google. What you just mentioned six so far this year, it's been an incredible run. Um are you adding to your position right now? And you still you said it's actually still a good value. How do you see it? We've we've added to Google. It's about nine percent of the portfolio. Test is about ten UM. You know, YouTube is on fire. YouTube is about twelve percent of the revenue ad AD revenue we have UM next few years growing about a

year for YouTube. You know, their basic search business is about sixty of the business UM. That's still even though it's a cash it's growing in about fifteen percent a year. And it fits with one of the big measured friends. And we can talk about our fund the way it works, but we try to exploit about ten mega friends that we see out changing the world. And the social media replaced in traditional media is one of those trends. UM

search spending about fift The cloud is another business. It's a little bit less than ten percent of the revenue that's growing the year. And the other thing about Google is it's gonna be if if the metaverse actually ever you know it takes hold, it will be a big beneficiary of the metaverse. So um, you get all that for about twenty six times twenty two earnings. That's very cheap. Um the average called Russell all cap coats stock do we look at trades about thirty eight times, so it's cheaper.

But yet it's growing its revenue seventeen eighteen percent a year. It's growing it's earnings here, so from a like price earnings to growth basis, it's a very cheap stock the way we look at it. All right, well, listen, great to spend some time with you, Gary. Thank you so much of a good and safe holiday season. Gary Black, He's portfolio manager of the Future Fun Active e TF, joining us on the phone from Chicago. Thanks for listening

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