China Vowing Retaliation After Houston Consulate Closure

Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. Our next guest took over as president of the a m A, the American Medical Association, just last month. Dr Susan Bailey is an allergist and immunologist, the one seventy president of the a m A. She came to the job amid the pandemic and a and an inauguration. I should say that was also had to

be done virtually because of the situation. She joins us right now on the phone from Fort Worth, Texas. Dr Bailey um SO delighted to have you here on Bloomberg Radio. First of all, how are you, congratulations and tell us about life in Texas right now. Well, thank you so much for the congratulations and for having me on your show. Aside from being very hot in Texas, UM, the coronavirus is a very hot as well. UM. Texas is one of the many hot spots in the country for the

virus and UM. Many of our hospitals UM are full UM and although we are seeing some little trends that we may be seeing a downward slide in cases, which I think is because of the mask mandates are governor introduced earlier in the month. Well, let's talk about that, Dr Bailey, as a physician and as someone who you and your colleagues have been tracking this so closely. I feel like some local and state and even federal leaders are getting religion maybe a little belatedly, on on the

mask wearing. What effect will that have? I mean, is this the sort of thing that could really, as they say, sort of arrest this and really changed the trajectory. Now that it does feel like we're all getting on board with this, UM, wearing a mask should not be a political statement. You know that being said, leadership UH and

UM symbolism is very important in society and UM. The American Medical Association, the American Hospital Association, and American Nurses Association recently released a statement that we are all in agreement that everyone needs to take the simple steps that we know will stop the spread of the virus by wearing masks, maintaining physical distancing and washing hands. UM. We agree with the CDC that everybody in the country ought

to be wearing a mask. I have to say, any of the experiences and interactions I've had, you know, with the medical community, certainly as as certainly the New York Metro has started to open up and reopen up, you know, UM, hospitals and medical centers for kind of routine procedures. You know, doctors, everybody's in masks like there's it's just the way of life, and they understand that that's just the way it has

to be to keep everybody safe. Well, I think it's important to remember that back to business doesn't mean business as usual. I believe that we're going to have to observe our mask wearing, physical distancing, and hand washing for the indefinite future. UM. We now have good scientific evidence to show that mask wearing does decrease the transmission of

the virus. It protects the wearer, it protects the people that are near the wearer, and UM, some have tried to make a controversy or a conspiracy out of changing recommendations over time. You know, nothing could be further from

the truth. And the beginning of the pandemic, we did not realize how much asymptomatic spread there was out there, and we didn't think that wearing a mask would make much difference, and we wanted to make sure that there were masks available for health care personnel that we're really getting heavy, heavy exposure to the virus. Now that we know that the virus is practically everywhere, UM, we do think that masks for everyone are appropriate, even the cloth

mask UM, and encourage everybody to wear them. So Dr Bailey talked to us about, well, we'll talk about vaccines in a little while, but I wanted to talk to you about treatments because I feel like that's one of the things we've been talking a little bit more about this week, Carol and I have on this program is sort of what's out there right now to treat this disease because we know that a vaccine is months away. Best case. Uh, what are you seeing in terms of

treatments that are working well? Unfortunately, the treatment side of the equation is still very very sparse. Um. Everyone has likely heard of rim dissevere um anti viral medication, but that's being reserved for patients in the hospital who are extremely ill. Um It may work a little bit better earlier in the illness, but um, that's going to be

limited by the amount of medication that's available. Um. There's been some reports out of Great Britain that adding a steroid um for severely ill patients can be very helpful. But other than that, the only treatment that we have really is prevention. Uh. There are a number of drugs and the pipeline monoclonal antibodies and other therapeutics that we hope will um, you know, be able to be used to treat COVID nineteen at earlier stages, but those are

all um still in the planning phase. Right now, you are listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Let's get back to our conversation with Dr Susan Bailey, president of the American Medical Association, newly minted newly inaugurated. She joined us on the phone from Fort Worth, and we just heard an update from our friends over John's Hopkins via Charlie Pellett

about the state of the vaccine research. Dr Bailey, I feel like the last week or so, we're just getting these little headlines here and there, especially from an investor perspective, that makes people a little more optimistic. Is that optimism misplaced? What's the realistic view on a vaccine at this point? Well, it is nice to get anything that closely resembles good news when we're talking about COVID nineteen UM, but it

I cautioned that it is very very early. UM. It's wonderful that the vaccines that we're seeing now uh gosha. There are three that are the closest to UM actually being produced for the public, but there's over a dozen that are being studied. We think that they can they're immunogenic, which means it can give people antibodies to the disease. But the really important point, the reason you get a vaccine in the first places, it does it keep a per from catching the disease when they're exposed to it,

And we don't know that yet. COVID nineteen is kind of tricky. When people catch it and develop their own natural antibodies. We're looking, we're saying they don't last very long, and so will that happen with a vaccine. I think time will tell them. That's why Phase three studies are so important. So I don't know, nobody has a crystal ball. Dr Bailey and I understand that. And we're learning so much about this virus and treatments today right as we go.

So how do you see potentially the next three to six months, what's our world look like. Well, I think we're all this is going to look very similar to what it looks like now. I think we're going to have to put our priority on UM public health measures like wearing your mask, keeping your hands clean, physical distancing UM opening up very carefully and very slowly. UM it will. I'll be real surprised if we have a vaccine before the end of the calendar year that's been shown to

be UM safe and effective. Vaccines are safe and effective, but we've got to make sure they work first. UM. I think that hopefully we'll see some slowing down of the number of cases if folks, you know, do their good old basic measures but um, I think we're still going to kind of be in a oh wait and see kind of position to see how things pan out

with vaccines. But that meantime, can I just have to know if if if vaccines, if vaccines are not the cure all though, right, we still don't know then, you know, I do wonder about what kind of world we live in. Well, I'm hoping they'll be you know, the answer eventually. We just don't know how quick that's going to be. We don't know if you're going to need a booster shot.

We don't know if you're going to need one every year like you do your flu shot, which reminds me we are really pushing hard for everybody to get their flu shot this year, um because of the pandemic UM. Hospitals, doctor's offices are going to be busy enough. Believe it or not, you can catch the flu and COVID nineteen at the same time, which, oh gosh, you're really really sick. So we're encouraging everyone to get their flu shot and do a little pre planning because it may not be

as easy to get. There's going to be plenty of vaccine available, but like your employer may not offer it anymore. You're it may not be quite as convenient to get one, but they certainly will be out there, and we encourage everybody over the age of six months to get a flu shot this year. So dry before we let you go, you know, I have to ask you sort of in

in this new position. You know, you have this vast membership, and I think we're all worried a little bit about doctors out there who have been on the front lines. How is it going, sort of generally as you sort of touch base with your colleagues, how are people generally doing them at all this so many months in Well, there's two very opposite ends of the spectrum. Um, the frontline position is working harder than they've ever worked in

their life. Um, they're exhausted. Many of them have become ill, and we've even had some deaths of physicians that are taking care of COVID nineteen patients. But at the other end, physicians in outpatient medicine and their private practice or having a hard time to office is open because people are afraid to go to the doctor and some procedures have been shut down. So, UM, we're helping them as best as we can. With um, you know, advice on how

to keep your practice going. Telemedicine has been a fantastic advance, but uh, there's no question the physician community needs a lot of support in many different ways right now. Well, we're grateful for you to for spending some time with us who really appreciate it. Uh, and congratulations again on

your new role. It's a big deal. Dr Susan Bailey, President of the American Medical Association, joining us on the phone from Fort Worth, Texas, Carol, and a big year to have to come into it and to step into these uh, you know, these shoes in this position specifically, and we should facing the medical community. Her predecessor, Dr Patrice Harris was very good to us amid all of this as well, so our thanks to her as well, and congratulations for a successful tenure. There. You are listening

to Bloomberg Business Week. Well, I have to say I think I can speak for you, Carol Mass when I say this, we always get a little bit of a sneak sneak peek of what the cover story is going to be. Joel Webber, you know, just for our planning and because we want to know. He gives us a little tip and Uh, we're both so excited when this ended up being the story, in part because we love the subject, in part because we love the writers. It's

a terrific one. It's all about Ben and Jerry's and Unilever and Ben and Jury's at this moment that it feels like it was made for So let's get into it. Jordan Holman is with us, as I mentioned, retail reporter for Bloomberg on the phone in New York City. Joel Webber, the editor of the magazine. He joins us from Massachusetts. So Joel t this one up for us. Uh. Well, you know, within the last month UM as Black Lives Matter uh started getting a ton of attention and the

protests took off. You know, the first company that actually was out of the gate with a response and it literally just made all of us go WHOA, that was a really amazing move was Ben and Jerry's. And Ben and Jerry's you know, it wasn't the first time they've done this. It is actually really part of the company's d n a UM, the corporate activism, the social justice.

This is just almost the latest chapter of it. And when we saw that, UM, Jordan actually was like she was the one that said all that and I was like, Okay, why don't you turn around and write that story for us? And that was uh yeah, and that was um we pulled in Thomas Buckley, who knows the union leaver sign of it, but that really became the expression of this. So Jordan's you know this, this company has been, you know,

really known for this from from day one. I think the thing that you you were able to really kind of bring to bear in this is like so many other companies fail when they try and do this. What makes Binn and Jerry's stand out? Yeah, Ben and Jerry's their statement just really hit you know, they said dismantled white supremacy and what we were seeing with other statements because you know, black lives matter and we support the community.

But what makes them stand now is that they have a dedicated team that thinks about these issues every single day. So when a tragic incident like the killing of George Floyda happens, it's not they don't have to scramble to get the resources or to think through this. They've educated themselves, they've done the homework that've connected with partners like Color Change,

incp To get the wording right. Well, and what's fascinating to Jordan's is it is in such contrast to so many other franchises, institutions, and companies that really fumbled it. Absolutely Yes, um, So Ben and Jerry's has for the past few years said we're going to focus on criminal justice reform. We want to understand how structural racism in the US works. And you don't always get that intensity

from other corporations and and honing in on that. And one thing that Thomas and I learned from reporting on this is that when they when Ben and Jerry's launch as a campaign, don't spend a year thinking about the topic um, thinking about criminal justice, how they can work with partners, how they can communicate that to customers who might not understand what structural racism is or the school to prison pipeline. And so that's why when a statement

from them is released, it really hits and resonates with people. Well, what's interesting, Jordan is we had a Bishop TD jakeson our show yesterday and one of the things that he said that I really took away and I think Carol did too, was this notion of exactly what you're talking about. This intentionality, and he basically said he was like, look and he was being a sirius. He said, slavery was intentional, Jim Crow was intentional. Diversity and inclusion have to be

intentional as well. But it's not always easy, I think, to do that. And yet it is. And and I that I'm joking a little bit when I say this, it's baked in in many ways. I mean it's there on the package, it's there in the company. And that goes back to the founders, right. Yeah, So Ben and Jerry's has been around since the late seventies and Ben Cohen and Jared greensfell as the founders. They've always spoken

up on issues that they think matter. And what's changed, um, is that you know, it's become more structured this team. So when they want to speak out on if it's climate change or if it's a structural racism like we're talking about, or whatever issue, they're being very intentional about what they want to say and how they say it. And Um. For this story, we talked to the executive director of Color Change for Sean Robinson, who speaks to

corporations all of the time. But he said, what that's been in Jerry's apart is that they actually put that energy the time and he even joked, you know, the flow ever behind Black Lives Matter and the things that they care about. Jordan's Another element that I want to bring in here is how uh you know Ben and

Jerry's owned by Unilever. Now Unilever this massive portfolio of companies um and not always as as sort of woke as Ben and Jerry's is, right, Like, this is also the company that does Uncle Ben's rice and j know has skin whitening brands in Asia that it's also trying to figure out what it's going to do what as Unilever as a company learned from you know, having been and Jerry's as part of sort of it its portfolio. Yeah, this goes back to Jason's earlier point about the founders.

So when Ben and Jerry's was being acquired by Unilever, the founders really fought for that independence over the social mission, that element that even though they're going to be owned by this conglomerate, they're going to still have this independent board to push the issues they care about, and that

has trickled down to other brands. Um, you you start hearing you know, back earlier this month they said, hey, we're gonna hold advertise them on Facebook and Instagram, and Unilever followed them, and other brands within Unilever followed that. Uh that intentionality. So yeah, it starts with Ben and Jerry's, but they definitely have influence over this huge brand that they are um a part of. And that's what's another thing I'll just point out there. Yeah, sorry, the other

thing I just point out here. You know, I find this part fascinating. Unilever has a huge ice cream portfolio, um like Ben and Jerry's is one of many actually within that, which is I just found that to be an interesting factor. It is like they clearly like the ice cream business absolutely well. I mean it's an interesting it's an interesting point to point out, Carol, And I mean, and you've spent some time care with it with the union Unilever CEO, and I mean he's been thinking about

these things. I think, Yeah, I I do think he thinks a lot about this. And I think Jordan, you you got you make a good point about the influence that Ben and Jerry's head more broadly right on this huge, massive company. Because I bet that there have been some interesting internal debates. Just got about thirty seconds here. Yeah, I mean, going to your point. The CEO of UNI Leaverer said that UM he would consider selling off brands that couldn't operate in a way that UM improved society.

That is a clear example of how Ben and Jerry's has steeped into the culture of UM the bigger companies that they're part of. Yeah, that's amazing. All right, Well it's a musterd for sure. Jordan's Holman, retail reporter for Bloomberg, co author of this week's cover story all about Ben and Jerry. She joined us from New York City. Joel Webber,

the editor of the magazine, he joined from Massachusetts. And I have to imagine, Carol, it's like the swagger that the Ben and Jerry's guys have, like literally and figuratively within this company have been like you've got to have all these other brand leaders being like, I just are we get to do it? I want to do it. Well, it's a fun part in the story too, that just talks about what they had to do to negotiate you leave buying Ben and Jerry. So all right, check that out.

This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. All right, so one of our most read stories, Infected is the most read story on the Bloomberg in the past eight hours, has to be about China vowing retaliation after the US force the closure of its Houston consulate. Well. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Jason held a joint press conference earlier today with the Danish Force Minister, and they did this in Denmark.

Pompeo discussing the US abruptly ordering China to close that consulate. We're setting out clear expectations for how the Chinese Communist Party is going to behave and when they don't, we're going to take actions that protect the American people. And that is Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaking earlier today

in Denmark. Let's understand and what this move means down in Houston, and for that, we go to New Hampshire and we check in with Andy Brown, the editorial director for Bloomberg New Economy, absolutely our number one go to voice for all things China. He lived there, he worked there. He's in charge of understanding this U S China relationship in the global new economy for Bloomberg. So we're so fortunate he was our first call when we try out

we're trying to figure out what's going on here. So Andy, this was a headline that I think grabbed all of us this morning only because it seems surprising. What does it mean? Look, this is this is a major escalation. I mean, we're moving towards a pretty serious diplomatic rupture. Um. And you have to put this in the context of US China relations, which really at a level, at a low that we haven't seen since relations were established in in the nine in the nineteen seventies. Um. It's hard

also not to look at this. I mean, I think you have to look at this, uh, in the context also of of domestic US politics. This is Donald Trump lashing out, UM in any way he can now at China. UM. You know this, this is you You you can't see this outside the context of of of sort of a distraction from you know, the abysmal job that the White House is doing against in the battle against coronavirus. UM. It's part of of of a wider sort of anti China hysteria, and we're going to see a lot more

of this, um. You know, in the run up to the election in November. Yeah, I do wonder Andy, if Donald Trump wasn't facing re election, would we see this escalation? Um? You know, you you would, you would see rising tensions. But I mean these are very concrete actions, and know the escalation you can you can see it quite clearly.

I mean, you had this tip Fatat expulsion of journalists. UM. You know, you've you've had these sanctions against Chinese officials, including very senior Chinese officials, a member of the Chinese polit bureau. You had this trial balloon UM last week, UM, you know where the New York Times reports that the United States the White House is considering banning all ninety two million members of the Chinese Communist Party UM from from coming to the US. Uh. You know, which would

pretty much put an end to trade negotiations. UM. It would certainly stop President Hi jimping from coming to to the United States. UM, and it would severely disrupt both academic exchanges and diplomatic dialogue. So you know, you're just you're just seeing an escalation, and and this is clearly,

very clearly the most the most serious action today. You know, Andy, I do wonder at And this may be unknowable at this moment, but if anyone were to know, it would probably be you, because I know you speak to ceo s,

you speak to academics, and you speak to economists. If you're a multinational company and you're you have business in China, both selling to the massive consumer base there, maybe doing some manufacturing there, what does something like this and these continuing political escalations do for your strategy, especially given that it is of a piece in some ways, as you said at the beginning, with everything that we've been seeing, like what's the calculus here for a corporate leader? Well,

obviously the thing that businesses fear more than anything is uncertainty. Um. And this certainly injects a a a huge new um, you know. I mean you talked about the the unknown. Nobody really knows where this is going. I mean Ray Dalio just the other day he wrote a very long, eight thousand word posting on on LinkedIn saying that he thinks that this trade war could very could possibly lead

to a shooting war, to a hot war. You know, businesses, businesses are looking towards a future of of incredible hostility between these the world's two largest economies. And you know, all businesses um a worry that eventually they're going to have to choose. I mean, if we're if we're moving into this bipolar world. Um, you know two technology stacks, UM, you know, a run in bead block, a US dollar block, UM,

you know, to trading systems. I mean that seems to be the way the world is moving at the very least. I mean as uncertainty. And of course it adds huge costs to businesses who have to navigate all this. And you're someone who has you know, as Jason said, you lived in China. You understand this. I mean, do you find it surprising that this is where we are at this point? Not? Really, this has been this has been building for some time. Um. You know that the decoupling

has um has been progressing and accelerating. I would say under the Shijimping administration, China is now you know, on a set on a course of self reliance. It's determined that the United States wants to throttle its rise. Um you know, and and uh it's looking forward quite actively now to preparations for a full on financial confrontation. I mean we've seen it on the trade side, we've haven't

seen it. On the technology side, on the talent side, UM and now very senior Chinese division talking publicly about, you know, the need to turn the R and B into an international currency. We can't rely on the dollar anymore. They're talking about the dangers that their own investments in the United States space now potentially demands for reparation from the United States, UM over the you know, over COVID nineteen UM, so that the Chinese, the Chinese are preparing

for a for a full scale rupture. And this it has been building for a while. All right, Well, we're so grateful to you for spending some time with this. Andy Brown, editorial director for Bloomberg New Economy. Johnny is on the phone from New Hampshire timely and on it as always, Carol. Yeah, it's it's a huge story. It's a remarkable story that will have consequences, certainly on the financial world and certainly the business world. We're already seeing it.

This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. So in our weekly Bloomberg Green segment, there is a story we want to get to. It's on how now everyone can make their wallet greener. I love the headline on this. Let's get more from Emily Chason. She is sustainability editor at Bloomberg News, and she joins us on the phone in New York City. Emily, good to have you here with us. So what are we talking about? Yeah? Good ask you and Carol didn't get

to talk to you guys always. Um, So what we're looking at is sustainable science in your whole wallet. We're always talking about sustainable investing, which is about thirty trillion in assets, but that's really only available to the wealthiest you know, investors out there and impact investors and just people who actually have money to invest. But there's a whole other group of financial interactions that people have every day in their wallets, right and your bank deposits your

credit cards. Um. And this is sort of a newer area in sustainable science where customers can think differently about how they're actually making those purchases every day and can they make them more sustainably well. And it's interesting because I know Carol and I experienced this with our teenagers who really are thinking about this on a daily basis. I mean, they give me a hard time when I don't oh yeah, yea through that. Um, so what do we do? How do we do this? How do we

how do we please our children here? Yeah, it's really interesting because people are already conscious when you go into a store. Am I buying like a more sustainable meat product? Am I buying vegan meat? You know? Am I looking at? Is there too much plastic and petroleum in this shampoo bottle? Right? That's the kind of thing you have every day. But then when you look at your actual deposits and your credit cards in your bank account, you have to sort

of ask yourself what are they financing? So um bnp powabust Bank of the West came out this week with a new climate action checking account. It has a carbon tracking tool to find out if you've shopped at a sustainable store. It even has a bio degradable credit card. Um also master Card all this week announced the plan to work with sixty different financial institutions to issue credit cards made from recyclable by the gradables or ocean harvested plastic.

And actually, you know it's crazy about this is that um six billion payment cards are produced a year, so that's actually a lot of plastics that can clash out your cards. I know. Yeah, it's a big deal, right. I know you're like, are you just are you blown by that? Jason blown away? Yeah, wherever it's really about, go ahead. And I was gonna say, it's really about you know what, um, you're financing. So Banks of the

westmon they are doing this Climate Action Checking account. What's interesting about it is that there the bank already has very strict policism popic fuel ending and tobacco financing, and so they said, you know, we can really offer this Climate Action checking account because what your deposits are financing we're very clear about, because that's not true what everythank in your wallet? Yeah? What what did al Gore have to say this week? Yeah? We were also talking this

week about the feature of sustatable capitalism. Um. We had that big Boomberg Green event. Yeah, congrats on that. It was huge. It got a lot of pick up tell us about it. Yeah, And what we were all talking about the time is now, UM to build back better, to rethink what we're investing in. And you know, one thing he made this interesting point is not doing e s G is sort of a violation of fitciary duty. Um, today.

And people used to think that E. S. G. Was a you know, maybe you were violating your could you share duty here? Clients by considering this is badness factor? And now he said, you're you're not interesting, You're you're probably violating your share duty today. So that's a big change when you think about the capital market. That's a

really big deal. That's a really big deal. Um. Alright, well because because there's financial implications though right Emily, Like there's financial you know, whether it's your impact on the environment or your exposed you know, if you've got a product that might you know, have an impact on the environment or an impact on people in a negative way, like like these are things that are now we talk about a lot, but they ultimately will have potentially a

financial impact. Yeah, and I think you see that more than ever today with all these systemic issues in the market. Was a pandemic and a climate change, and there was a story today that, um, you know, we're gonna miss two degrees, so that the best case scenario is now two point six degrees. Um, So we're going to live in a world that is much more volatile, and um, the financial markets are definitely gonna have to respond to that, and even consumer can respond about their wallet. Yeah, because

that's what we need, is more volatility. I will say Emily that Carol was very disappointed when I told her that you and Alex Steele and I, uh this time last week went deep on cow toots. She was not happy to actually missed it. Am. I actually like I beat him at the beginnings, Like I kind of really want to talk about cow toots. I feel like I missed out big time. All Right, I have a new article coming up on plant basis this week, so we will come back to it next week. Excellent, that's gonna

be here again. Oh god, you just have to We're gonna We're gonna bring it up at some point. All Right, We're gonna bring it up. We're gonna be all right, Emily Chason, thank you so much, Sustainability editor. You can read more stories on climate news, science and the environment. Go to Bloomberg dot com slash green tons of information there. There's also a lot of great interactive stuff too. Um. That's one of the things I love about the Green initiative that Emily is working on with a big team

here at Bloomberg. Yeah, you're exactly right. It's one of our verticals, and so there's a lot of things that can really sort of demonstrate for you a lot of the issues facing the climate. And also do check out that conversation with al Gore. It was a good one that really saw it sort of blow up on Twitter a little bit. He's one of the voices you really

want to hear from right now. And there's a certain element with al Gore that's like, yeah, thanks for catching up people like I've been saying this, Hello, where have you all been? What's interesting though, Jason, it went from being kind of a feel good do the right thing too. It now has a financial impact on companies, whether it's consumers don't want to be involved with companies that aren't

doing the right thing. But ultimately, if you were in the environment, there are legal implications, like there's a lot of reasons why, there's a lot of momentum and you can invest in it, you know, yeah, exactly, plus Scout Tunes a journal. Yeah, but you let me drive Oh no, no, no, please, ext I want to try just question this is the drive to the clobe. Thanks, we'll try us down on Bloomberg Radio. It is time. Oh I'm sorry good. No, please please after you, Carol, all right, time for the

drive to the close that Tony road. Roth excuse me. He's chief investment officer of Wilmington's Trust, a hundred and fourteen billion in assets under management, and he joins us on the phone from Cape Cod, Tony. We're just fighting to get to you. How excited to talk to you, ma'n. How are you to hear your voices? I'm good, I'm good. Everyone's healthy up here. Not everybody, but everyone in my family and most people up here in Massachusetts has done well.

That's good. That's good to hear that. UM. I do wonder too, as you look at what's going on in Massachusetts and then you look at what's going on around the country, what does it tell you about kind of the economic health or economic environment and ultimately kind of the corporate environment that we are in that leads to the investment environment. Well, even in Massachusetts, people are very cautious and many businesses are either not open or not

operating any of our close to the capacity. And so what it tells me is that we still have a long way to go from a labor market standpoint and a small business standpoint to get back to a healthy economic picture. So around the country, Massachusetts and then there's Washington. So a big debate going on, a lot of headlines coming out fast and furious as lawmakers try and get together.

The administration weighs in, how much do you watch this sort of TikTok of that, Tony, Because ultimately, whatever latest rescue or stimulus or assistance, however you want to describe it comes through is going to have a pretty profound effect, or its lack of it's going to have a pretty pround profound effect on where we go from here. What do you make of the debate so far? Well, yeah,

it's a great question. And there are two things that we're very focused on right now, Jason, and that is number one, what comes out of Washington in terms of the fourth package, and the second is the rate of COVID deaths. Those are really the two things that we

think are the key leading indicators on the market. And in terms of the former, what's interesting, I think is that you're seeing some positive upward movement in the markets today for the first time in a couple of days because um meaningfully, because I think that the market is happy that the two sides are really starting to dig in and talk to each other, and it's it's it's interesting that that's my interpretation because when you look at

the latest news that suggests that the GLP would support a hundred hours a week rather than six hundred dollars a week um in unemployment benefits, that's very negative news if that's where we were to land, because with the current benefits, the amount to about fift of our total retail sales are essentially being funded through unemployment. If that got cut that dramatically, that would would essentially lose the funding for about twelve and a half percent of total

retail sales in the country. That would be very problematic. Right. The repercussions Tony, through the through the economy would be very dramatic. And when we talk about what kind of recovery it is that are that we're hoping to have on the other side of this, it could certainly dampen

it even more. Absolutely, we're very dependent right now on the life support we're getting out of Washington in the form of extended unemployment benefits, unemployment insurance as well as the p p P. And one of the things, Carol, that we're seeing is that if you recall the last two months, we had very positive, surprising labor market reports.

The private data that we're tracking suggest that the labor markets rolling over and that in July we got to see a net loss of jobs rather than these big three, four or five million increases that we saw the prior two months. Um And that's for a variety of reasons, but including the fact that payroll protection is running out and people are free to lay people off right now. So it all ties back to what's happening in Washington

right well, well, and do you are you gonna following that? Jason? Okay, So in keeping with Washington, I do wonder how much you think, Tony two about the elections, the outcome of the elections and what that means for us getting control of the vaccine and for what that means for our economy and ultimately what that what that means for the for the markets. And also I do wonder, as you watch the vaccine, if we start to see things improved, do you think it's more likely that Donald Trump gets

a second term? Well, a lot in that question. Let me start with what's one of the things that's very interesting around the market right now is that in a typical environment where you have a Democrat winning by five by ten points in the polls right now and winning an electoral math by a significant amount as well, by the way, which is important to note, and the polls are better than they were last time around. UM, and we've also got probably a chance, if not better, of

Democrats looping the Senate. Typically that would be a death knell for a market rally because it means higher taxes, etcetera.

But this environment is different because UM, we don't know whether or not UM Biden would yes, perhaps raise taxes, but also spend much more freely in supporting an economy and life support UM and so the the picture of the relative paths of a Trump versus Biden administration is quite obscure, and so the market really doesn't know at this stage until we get a lot more color on what their policies are going to be. UM. More specifically,

we get into the debates and stuff. The market's really not um building it in one way or the other, and I think that our thinking is along those lines. We're really not sure. I will say that UM, it is concerning right now from a short term economic standpoint that the Republicans are quite reticent. As we've already talked about increased these benefits. Um, a Democrat could be much

more um uh willing to open the wallet in those regards. Um. So that's why the market doesn't know what to make of it, right, So tend you before we let you go, only about a minute or so left. I do wanna take a minute on that that second thing that you're tracking, and and keep me honest. Did you say the death rate rather than hospitalization or case load? What? What do you?

What's that important number? Yeah? So what it's going to really impact consumer activity is going to be the fear that somebody's going to go out and catch a catch

a horrible pathogen and die. It's not that I'm going to get something that's going to be a cold and I'm gonna get all better and move on that that and that is in fact the fallacy I think that has led to this new out this new series of outbreaks, because a lot of people think, oh, I'm immune to it, I'm young, i'm healthy, it's not really going to affect me.

In fact, what we see is that many people that have the virus um they get better, but they carry with them significant underlying conditions, maybe for the rest of their lives. We don't know that, but that's not really what's affecting behavior to today. That's a subtlety that most people don't appreciate. What's affecting behavior is if I get this, am I going to die? And up until today we haven't seen the big spike in deaths. We just broke

through a thousand again on deaths. Interestingly, we saw the tenure for the first time really go back down into the get a five handle fifty nine basis points today. Um, it's been in the sixties for months now, So that's not an accident. As the market excuse me, as the death case to start to spike again, you're starting to sr stressed in the bond market. Yeah. Interesting. Interesting, Well that's a that's a very good uh point and something

to think about. We really appreciate time. Thank you so much. Tony Roth, chief investment officer for Wilmington Trust, joining us on the phone from Cape Cod Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, South Cloud, Bloomberg dot com, but wherever you get your podcasts, and of course you can always Listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News