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Bank of America in particular, reporting that bank traders notching one of their best first quarters on record. The company also reaped the benefits of elevated borrowing costs the push nest interest pushed excuse me, net interest income of of analyst estimates. But the stock is slumping and there are good reasons why.
Yeah, that's the good news, Carol. Stockdown three point three percent as we speak. Bank America reporting elevated expenses and charge offs for soured loans that were higher than analysts expected, failing to satisfy investors with a gain in its trading business. Charge offs totally one point five billion dollars of twenty six percent from the last three months of twenty twenty three was more than analysts foretasts.
All right, let's bring in Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Global Banks analyst Alison Williams here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Is it all about the charge offs? Is that the big bummer?
I mean, I think it's a lot of little things. And I'd also point out that all of banks are selling off, and you know, banks do not do well and risk off days, So let's start there. And you know, I think the other, I mean, the other disappointment is not interesting income that's been the story of the quarter. They did actually have a beat, and they actually showed sequential growth, which was positive versus what what analysts had expected and what.
Other banks had expected. But they kept their views.
Steady, just like the other big banks, and so you know, people are not happy about that. But I do think, like, let's look at the underlying trends. Right, the deposit costs are still going up, but at a slowing pace, and so we think that's that is positive, and we think it's prudent for these banks to just stay pat Bank of America is already a little bit more optimistic than banks.
They're calling for a trough second quarter, so it's disappointing that it wasn't fourth quarter, but still more optimistic most. You know, if you look at consensus, it thinks like one queue of next year. But look at how fast things have changed. You know, you just had we've just had the discussion over the last few and it's right changed.
So if you were bank management, would you be changing your guidance, you know, but so quickly it really just doesn't it's not helpful and it doesn't tend to be rewarding. But you know, and getting to charge offs, so you made the point them out charge offs. Credit card charge offs are always higher in the first quarter, delinquencies are lower, and if you look at the delinquency trends, they show
that that pattern should continue to play out. The commercial real estate, I think people might have been taken them back a little bit, especially because Wells Fargo and JP Morgan, who are the bigger lenders, you know. Wells Fargo especially showed improvement in their US office. They showed improvement and multi family. But with Bank of America said is that they changed their models. They did some reevaluation, so maybe shows that they weren't as being as conservative and.
So you got that uplifted charge offs.
Any commentary from management about the strength of the consumer at Bank of America, because that's they've got a great view into the consumer with all the accounts.
They have, they do and the consumer is still healthy. We keep hearing about the healthy consumer. I think where their spent disappointment is the commercial side of things, so card growth, and then you can argue how healthy it is, right, people are barring on their card to spend, but card growth is really you know, that's the blowout versus that's the only place where you're getting low growth. And that's why you saw a city JP Morgan the most exposure there.
Bank of America has some exposure, so they're doing well and that business is doing.
Meaning people carrying balances.
What do you meaning people are carrying balances?
So that's an interesting test. That's an interesting definition of strength of the consumer.
Right.
So well, so the spending is healthy, but so the balances are growing. That's why I said, you know, you can argue right that you know, consumers having the ability to borrow is seen as well, there's capacity, right, that's a healthy thing. But as they use up that ability, is that really healthy? And if you look at City Group, you know they they actually raise their guidance on their private label card, which tends to skew you know, more
towards the lower end of the scale. So it does show that, you know, are there some signs of cracks coming?
Is there a net net takeaway for you, Allison watching all of these big banks, right, it's start on Friday and we finished or you know, we're kind of getting through it all in terms of the health of the big banks, and then what it tells us about kind of the broader business and consumer environment.
So you know, I think again, if you back away the guidance, right, the stocks react to the guidance, the cost of deposits, that that's showing some stabilization.
So that's a good thing.
That means that you know the impact of higher rates on deposits and people shifting the money around, that's stabilizing. So obviously that could change depending on what happens with rates.
We just talked about higher charge offs and higher charge of the card, but in general reserve releases across the banks, and that's not you know, card is forcing to go up at credit and the provisions are come, are you know, scaling back because the economy is turning out to be better than expected or better than feared, you might say, right, So and again that's right, So those things are positive you know, the cost side is still very inflated, so that's a negative. That's also sort of a knock on
the Bank of America. And if you have revenue pressure and you have costs going up, bank investors don't like that. Finally, capital markets, you know, we had expected resilience.
It was better than we thought.
We have a choppy start to this quarter, but that's still gonna be really good for trading. That's a big source of revenue invested banking. The other thing that we're looking at really came in well in the first quarter. A lot of the banks talking about, you know, positive outlook for i POS.
You know, these contents of markets are not.
Yeah, they're starting to happen. Some of the performance in the first quarter IPOs is positive. Both JP Morgan and Goldman pointing to that, Morgan Stanley is saying, look, these companies, you know, at some point they have to make their they have to you know, make their decisions and execute regardless of the markets. But I think I think, you know, if if we have like a few more if the few days like this, yeah.
Turn into more of a sustained trend, it's going to be tough.
Allison Williams of our BI team, and we've got the KBW Bank index down one and a half percent.
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Charlie mentioned Morgan Stanley shares.
They are definitely rallying in today's session in a market where we're kind of little changed overall in the major
equity averages. This is coming after Morgan Stanley's first quota revenue exceeded analyst expectations, helped out by its trading business that came in at five point thirty three billion dollars, cruising past analyst estimates, and also as its wealth management juggernaut also got back on track on that remember the news last week Morgan Stanley downplaying queries into its wealth management clients. That news last week did, as you know, send shares tumbling.
Bank of America also reported and traders not one of their best first quarters on record, as the company also reaped the benefits of elevated borrowing costs that push net interest income above analyst estimates. We should note that all this came after Goldman, JP, Morgan City, Wells Fargo and others. Carol and the banking sector have reported as well. Bank of America right now down three point eight percent.
All right, So we've got a guest who follows the financial sector. Cheryl Paid is back with us. She's senior portfolio manager at the investment manager from angel O Capital.
She joins us from Atlanta.
She serves as portfolio manager for the financial's Income Fund financial Strategies, Income Term Trust and the Dynamic Financial Strategies Income Term Trust. So, Cheryl, good to have you here with us. You look at the financial sector, the results that we've gotten from the big banks and what does it tell you? And not everyone is the same, we know not all the results were the same.
But what were your key takeaways?
Yeah, I think there's a couple things that we're looking at, and I think, first off, guidance is critical in today's environment more so than results generally, in terms of how banks are really adjusting to a higher for longer environment and how their positioned to benefit. On an NII side, I think what we've really seen thus far the reporting season is that results have generally beat expectations, but it's
been largely from the FIA income side. So to your earlier commentary, we've seen capital market strength, We've seen you know, the M and A pipeline has been building. You've seen strength in investment banking and wealth management fees, and then also on the expense side. NII in general, I think has roughly hit the bar, but the forward guidance has been maybe a little disappointing versus byside expectations.
What about potential concerns here as we've heard from the big banks already, concerns about the consumer, concerns about commercial real estate. What are your takeaways?
Yeah, I think credit has remained remarkably benign. We've been looking for some normalization over the past couple of quarters, certainly, but what we've seen thus far I think holds us in good stead. We also got credit card monthly data out yesterday that showed the delinquencies are slowing again for the fifth consecutive months, So we feel generally pretty good about the consumer. There are some pockets on the low wear income side which we have some concerns about, but
that's not really showing through in the numbers. Yet we've been more concerned clearly on the commercial real estate side, both office and multifamily. I think the takeaway from Wells Fargo they didn't increase their reserve on the office cur portfolio, So we do expect there will be bumps along the road, and there's certainly headline risk, but I think that will hit more in the regional bank space relative to the large caps or even the community banks.
So we're the opportunities for you guys where you look at certainly debt issued by financial institutions, these are your investment opportunities.
Where are you seeing the opportunities here?
Yeah, I think we would generally think there's a Barbelle approach that makes sense in today's environment. We do like the large banks from a diversification perspective, more exposure to consumer, but also that fee income capital markets type business. And then on the smaller end of spectrum, I think there is value in both community bank equities and debt which are really benefiting from Here is a very strong deposit franchise, which is a benefit in a higher for longer world.
A low cost funding base should help those franchises which are built on relationship banking. So we see value in both those ends of the spectrum, and I do think the regional banks are likely more challenged here again a little bit more of the office, commercial real estate exposure, higher funding costs, and probably a higher regulatory burden coming down the pike. So that's sort of how we think
about it across the size spectrum. Yeah, I do also think that there is value in the debt side here, where you're seeing equity like returns for investment grade debt. Given some of the volatility over the last year, which is still remains a dislocated market, I.
Want to push it a little bit on the regional banks. As you said, still challenged. What does that mean, Like, give me some idea, still challenge meeting, We're going to still have some problems. Maybe some regional banks are going to be taken out, They're going to be bought, Like what is what does challenge really mean to you?
Yeah, I'm not necessarily calling for a wave of bank failures by any means. I do think there will be a lot of M and A that comes out of the recent events and when we look for probably more headline risk in terms of some of the commercial real
estate exposure could drive M and A activity. We did see a deal announced last night, and so the resurgence of M and A I think helps the regional bank space, especially as we're thinking about higher regulatory costs to come, as well as high expenses currently relative you know, to the large cabet banks from a scale perspective, So it's really sort of expenses, potential commercial real estate risk and higher costs to manage along the way.
Cheryl, we just heard from Fetcho J. Powell talking about potentially delaying rate cuts being higher for longer, and I'm wondering about if, for example, we don't see any rate cuts from the FED this year, if that changes any part of your thesis thinking about the financials.
That really benefits the more asset sensitive institutions and again potentially pressures the funding cost side. So that's really when it is important to dissect the funding base of these institutions.
How much is in sort of lower cost you know, consumer sticky checking savings accounts versus higher cost money market CD type accounts, and that's you know, where you could see higher costs continue to remain a drag from a cost of funding perspective, but higher for longer with a balance sheet that reprices faster on the asset side should actually drive higher ANII guidance from a multitude of institutions, So I think that that puts most of the sector in a good place.
You know, you guys look at credit like all kinds of iterations, if you will, you know, the moves in private credit, and certainly has been such a big discussion over the last couple of years. What are you seeing in terms of the strain and kind of your traditional financials, your traditional banks or who have gladly kind of given up playing in the middle market, if you will, when it comes to loans and issuing debt on behalf of
some of those middle market corporate clients. I mean, what can you tell us and what are you seeing in today's environment in terms of moves continuing into the private credit world.
Yeah, I think clearly you are seeing loan growth slowing at the banks. Some of it may be, you know, giving up some share at the margin to private credit. I do think it's a mix of that and also balance sheet optimization. I think capital remains key for the banks, and they're examining all ways to increase capital, whether it be you know, selling some non core assets some loan portfolios or just slowing growth. I think that will continue to remain a trend, and part of that business has been,
you know, moving towards private credit for some time. It's a little bit different underwriting process, standards, et cetera. And so the banks are probably willing to see that type of UH portfolio in this environment.
Yeah, it certainly has been the trend.
Hey, one last question, because we you know, you talked about the large cat banks fee income and exposure to consumers that plays in their favor. Do you have an you know, when you look at the large cat banks, which we have focused on since they started reporting earnings on Friday, is there a name in the space that in particularly you think is a standout.
Yeah.
I mean, I think the two that we would call as probably the most attractive opportunities, you know, from a large cat perspective, JP Morgan, I think, has you know, a nice catalyst coming up in their investor day at the end of May. I think Guidance, while it was raised at her earnings, was a little disappointing, and maybe there's some upside potential there on a higher raise coming
out of investor Day. And then we like City is more of the expense restructuring story, but that continues to show good execution in our opinion.
All right, really appreciate it.
A nice overview of certainly the big banks and really the financials overall, which has certainly been a focal point for investor.
Cheryl.
Thank you so much, Cheryl Pate. She's senior portfolio manager at angel O Capital. Joining us from Atlanta.
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The IMF by the way out today inching up its expectations for global economic growth this year, citing strength in the US and some emerging markets, while warning the outlook remains cautious amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks, and while the world appears to have dodged a downturn, as a story in the upcoming new issue of Bloomberg Business Week points out, wars and economic nationalism are leaving many countries worse off this story, as we said, in the new
issue a Bloomberg Business Week.
Yeah, that's out on newstands later this week.
It's already online though, at Bloomberg dot com, slash BusinessWeek and on the Bloomberg terminal. With the details we bring in a Bloomberg BusinessWeek Global Economic Center. Christina Lynn Blad she's joining us here in our Bloomberg studio. So, Christina, the devil, as they say, is in the details. When you have a ten thousand foot view of the global economy, things are starting. Things look pretty good depending on where
you look. But then when you look closer, more on the ground, at least according to this story, there are some parts that are a little bit troubling.
That's right.
I think that everyone is breathing a collective sigh of relief that some of the major economies, including the US, seem to have dodged a downturn, and the global economy
as a whole has. But then when you look beyond that headline figure, you know, even the slight upgrades to the forecast, you see that you know some really troubling stats, like, for example, four out of every ten people in the world live in a country where the government spends more on paying interest on the debt than on education and health. And so that from like just like a human gut likes thing is like horrible, right, But also think about
how that constrains growth for those nations going forward. So yeah, so at the IMF meetings this week, I think that you know that that collective side of relief is quickly sort of being pushed aside to point to the problems that are out there.
Debt, no doubt, you know, a problem when I think about years ago, right when we taught used to just talk about the US debt all the time and servicing the debt and how could we do it? And in a higher rate environment, it becomes much more problematic, whether it's for the US or other nations.
The other thing I think.
About is geopolitics, right, and you know we saw that certainly this weekend. You know, we are seeing new alliances geo politically, and you do wonder, you know, Christina, how that plays out economically as well.
Right, So besides you know, real shooting wars, we also have what I think maybe a new front opening in this trade wars that the US is leading the fight on with Europe. Also, you know, joining and we saw Yellen coming back from her trip to China last week, already calling attention to the fact that China, that China has this overproduction problem as we're calling it, and you know, the German Chancellor is in China this week echoing the
same kinds of ideas. So I think that we may expect to see new barriers coming into the US against you know, evs, Chinese evs, which already faced actually pretty big obstacles getting into the US market, but also like solar panels and things like that, areas where the US is investing lots of money to ramp up you know, capacity, manufacturer capacity here Christina.
The story also brings up a part of the immigration conversation that I think does not get included when people talk a lot about migration, and that's the idea of what actually pushes.
People to move to different countries.
And the idea that if life is not good in parts of Sub Saharan Africa, or parts of Latin America or parts of South America, that spurs people to move to different parts of the world. Talk a little bit about that and how in some of these countries we could see even more migration, more immigration from these countries into other countries as a result of issues within the countries.
Well, that's right.
I mean there are many you know, what people call push factors to immigration, and the lack of opportunity at home is one of them.
And that you know, that.
Lack of opportunity isn't going to improve if governments are not able to invest in human capital, which is like health and education. And also, you know, climate change is another driver. You know, we're seeing that in Central America and these parts of the region called the Dry Corridor where a lot of you know, farmers have been forced out and are seeking you know, jobs in the US.
So basically, I mean, I think the immigration topic is one that sort of kind of brings out focus to why we all need to be concerned about these problems that are far from our shores.
You know.
The other thing I think about is too, like the technology race, and we talk about it all the time, that's going on, and you do think about again, you're seeing just like in geopolitics or politics, you're seeing new alliances made, and we're seeing that in the same thing with technology, and you do wonder how that ultimately widens the gap between either developed nations versus the developing world, which and give me, I don't know, like give us
the bigger picture of what's been happening pre pandemic in terms of closing the gap, if you will, between individuals.
There was a clear trend before of a convergence between developed and developing countries. So people felt good about that about kind of like Okay, we're like we see progress, we see standards of living, you know, moving up. We saw tremendous poverty reductions in the three decades leading into the pandemic, but in twenty twenty two, there were twenty three million more people that lived in extreme poverty than
before the start of the pandemic. So some of the trends that we're seeing now in terms of sort of fragmenting that you know, is one of the things people call it it risked leaving some countries left out of technological development because the US and China, you know, the frictions that are playing out. There's a lot more sort of the pushes because of national interest not sharing technology with other countries, using subsidies to bring more investment into
your own country. So that's going to penalize other countries maybe at the beginning, it will be already we saw last year for example, like you know, with EVS, some European car makers were choosing to put their factors in the US rather than add new ones in Europe. Well, that's going does also affect other countries, you know, who are that are less developed and you know, and could could could stunt growth.
Frankly, Yeah, so where do you I don't know, you know, when you guys, this is what you do. You track the global economy, what people are saying Wall Street, you know, you guys get into some of the expectations. What are we hearing from Wall Street analysts? Are they starting to kind of ratchet down or some of the global analysis in terms of expectations for global growth.
Despite what the IMF says.
Wall Street is still very fully engaged with the AI narrative. I don't really think, I mean, between you know, the FED watching and the AI you know exuberance, I don't really see that this is tempering expectations so much.
And you know a major markets.
Yeah, it does seem like this this part of the conversation, Carol, is lost to a lot of people.
When you start breaking it down.
Yeah, when you start breaking it down.
I think this is not necessarily on a lot of people's radar in terms of how they're thinking about global growth.
No, because I mean, I think especially in the US, I mean, we have been really lucky. I mean there have been downturns in parts of Europe, right, So yeah, I mean I think it's always been kind of a you know, a risk of these other stories not pushing, you know, pushing like to be heard and stuff. But I think that now we really do because of this divergence, you really risk not this story not you know, falling off the radar.
Literally.
Well you can read the whole story. It's in the upcoming new issue of Bloomberg Business.
We can also find it already online at Bloomberg dot com, Slash BusinessWeek, and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Christina, Thank you so much, Christina Limblad. She's Global Economics editor here at Bloomberg BusinessWeek.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen on Apple car Play and and Brout Auto with a Bloomberg Business act or want us live on YouTube.
We've been talking a lot about the real I mean right now again just reiterating some of those numbers ten year note off the ties of the day we did, but right now we're at four sixty seven. That to your note, which went above five percent today, Right now Tim just below it at four ninety seven.
Probably a good time to talk to Jimmy Lee because he says that investors have become more comfortable about interest rates staying higher for longer, assuming it's due to the economy staying strong.
And that's kind of Carol, what we heard from j Powellton.
Yeah, right, that's the caveat.
This is of course coming and an interesting time where we try to figure out what happens for the rest of the year when it comes to FED rate moves. Let's get to Jimmy Lee, as you said, setting them up, so while founder and CEO at Wealth Consulting Group back with us from Vegas. So, Jimmy, you do say investors have become more comfortable about interest rates staying higher for longer. It is the caveat, the big caveat that the US
economy stays strong. Looks like the case right now. So walk us through your thinking and what could possibly go.
Wrong that's une, Carol and Tim. Yeah, I think that investors have gotten comfortable with higher rates. Obviously, margins have been good enough for companies to produce good earnings over the last few quarters, and earnings estimates have gone up over the last you know, few months.
So I think, you know, so far, everybody's positive.
But what's on everybody's mind today is this pullback that we've gotten because yules have gone up because of the inflation data that.
We've seen recently. But I would have expected that a ten percent first quarter.
While I liked it and our clients love it, we needed a little bit of a pullback, and you know, I wish it wasn't due to inflation data being hotter than expected. But you know, we're really talking about one ten to one percent higher last month right on some of the numbers. That has caused all the friction here. And I agree that it asn't you know, the trend isn't lower right now. But I'm contraring in a little bit thinking of that inflation dam might look better, you know, down the road.
I've been seeing that for a while.
I've been wrong, But I hope that's the case, and that the FED does get to cut sooner than later. In today's pal speech, really didn't, you know, tell people that that's what he was thinking and trying to get people more comfortable with the idea.
That the FED is going to keep interest rates higher for longer.
You sound hesitant, you sound a little tentative.
Well, you know, I actually believe that inflation is coming down, and there's certain areas that have been really difficult for inflation, including housing that comes in a month after month being a big portion of why inflation continues to look so bad in some cases. But then you know, you have to things, you have to look at everything in relatively speaking,
and it's still headed in the right direction. So what Pale did say today is he still believes the base case is that inflation's coming down, and I don't think that the Fed's going to raise rates like some people are thinking.
I do believe we're going to get some cuts.
I'm not sure how many at this point, but if inflation data does come in better in the second half of the year, then I think that the FED wants to cut sooner than before.
Right before the election.
Hey, Jimmy, I'm just pulling up on the terminal here doing some quick calculations, we're down from all time highs on the S and P five hundred by a mere three point six percent. So to put into context the selloff that we've seen just in the last week or so, is this.
A buying opportunity yet for you and your clients.
I do believe, Tim, that we could get some more selling. But yes, if you have fresh cash.
I think these dips are opportunities to get in the market, and I think that the end of the year, I
think we'll end up higher than we're at today. The big, you know, the biggest part of trying to time the market correctly that's difficult is that seventy five percent of the time, historically speaking, stocks are hired twelve months later, and so it's very difficult to short and for most investors that are you know, normal Americans trying to stay for retirement and to stay retired and not run out of money, you know, investing for the long term.
You don't want to try to get in and out of the markets. I don't think. I don't think it's a good strategy.
But relying on more on financial planning strategies of making sure that you have enough money sitting in a bucket that's not going down ever due to a stock market. If you need the money for living expenses or other purchases, then those are the kind of ideas that we like to have clients employ. Not trying to time the market.
I know, of course, not trying to time the market. But if you say there could be some more selling ahead, what could prompt that more selling? We're just fresh inflation data or fresh economic data that continues to show we're in a hot economy.
Well in a short run, certainly, probably the inflation data is the biggest variable, but geopolitical risk is another one. And so if the situation in Iran and Israel escalates to an issue, that could cause a lot of short
term selling. I think that's very very possible. We hope that doesn't happen and things settle down so that lives are not lost that don't need to be lost, but we don't want that to escalate, and so geopolitical risk has been on the top of my list all year long, along with stick your inflation data, and certainly what's going on over there is not helping oil prices, which you know, I filled up the tank yesterday in my big truck and there with a lot of gas and a lot
of money, and so I know a lot of people are facing that today. But I think, you know, if interest rates do come down, I think it will help with a lot of activity in certain areas of market, including housing. They'll be more inventory, you know, and more supply for people to be.
Able to purchase.
And we need lower rates though, so that mortgage rates are lower and people want to, you know, move in and out of their houses like normal.
Hey, Jimmy, we talk about evs all the time. So I got to ask in Las Vegas, you have a big truck, why are you still driving internal combustion engine and not like you know, Ribban or F one fifty lightning or something.
You know what.
I still like my cars a little bit more traditional, and you know, I do have a truck out of one of the vehicles that I own, and so at some point that might turn into more of an EV type hybrid vehicle, who knows, but not at this point right now.
Yeah.
I mean, Tesla's one of the worst performers in the S and P five hundred today, down almost forty percent Carol so far this year. Another down day for the company. And one of the things we talk about all the time is people making their choice for the next vehicle, not necessarily being an EV, but being a traditionalized vehicle.
Right.
Remember we've talked about hybrids are much more have been in demand as of late. So interesting, Hey, listen just thirty seconds, Jimmy, if you had new money to commit in this market, where would you put it? Would you maybe look at the treasury trade? You know, especially when we've seen rates move up here?
Keryl, absolutely so.
I think that if you're a bond investor, having more duration right now is not a bad idea, even though rates could go higher in the short run. You know, you could lose a little bit of a net asset value in that way, but maybe dollar cost averaging into longer dated bonds. And I think investors should be set up in more cyclical sectors, getting prepared for lower environment, even though we're not there yet.
I think you need to get ahead of it.
I think that the potential trade in things like real estate could happen very fast and you can have a big bounce back in intra sensitive stocks and instructors.
All right, so appreciate it as always.
Jimmy Lee, Founder and chief executive officer at Wealth Consulting Group, joining us from Las Vegas.
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