Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - October 26th, 2019

and a lot more so. For better or worse, US and global markets have become inextricably entwined with American politics. Here to explain Michael Reagan, he keeps a watch on the financial markets for US. So what do you we do know? Right? We watched the election so carefully in terms of what it might mean for investors. Right, Yeah, it's this kind of awkward position that a lot of

investors and analysts have been thrust into. Is now they have to sort of have a sideline as a political scientist and kind of gauge where the tea leaves in the politics world are headed. It is it really is turning into old market of its own almost And you know, there's these prediction sites that you can tract sort of where the the betting community believes, uh, the horse race lies.

In politics, We'll tell us about one strategist that you actually went to visit, right, because you start off your story with that, and I think it tells yeah, yeah,

it's It's funny. Laurie Calvacina at RBC UH and she wrote in a note how she's she looks at these uh political polling charts almost like stock charts right now, and um, you know she's looking at Elizabeth Warren is like a momentum stock because she's really rising in the polls, and she's she's said she would advise shorting Joe Biden, uh in my comrade from the University of Delaware, unfortunately, but just because he's waning in momentum in the pulse.

But you know what's really fascinating is that so much is at stake with politics right now because obviously, when President Trump was elected, you know, politics ruled everything in global markets for you know, ever since basically. But now some of these Democratic can candidates are really have platforms that are really threatened to sort of upend a lot of the main industries in the US well, they're talking about Medicare for all, right, that's going to have implications

on all of those publicly held healthcare plan absolutely. Yeah, And that's why Elizabeth Lawren's ascent in the polls is really has well. She's kind of scrambling to try to decipher what it could possibly mean, because her plans are all over the place, so broad reaching. Um that a you have to kind of figure out, well, what will her priorities be, uh, and what will she sort of be able to get to accomplish. And a lot depends obviously on what the Congress looks like after the next election,

But a hypothetical Elizabeth Warren presidency is has well. She's scrambling to try to figure out all the ripple effects. Obviously, as you said, Medicare for all would have major implications for the healthcare sector. Um. She also wants to raise the minimum wage, which would pressure a lot of margins at at some companies, but it would also provide a lot more spending in the economy, so there'd be winners and losers in that scenario. Um. Obviously, she's talked about

getting tougher on the banks. Um. The thinking is that her sec would be very much a pitfall of an sec uh, and on and on and on. There's so many different ripple effects that um, it's it's a mad

dash to try to sort it all out. What's really interesting is, as of yet, um, there doesn't seem to be much of her ascent priced in two markets so far, and analysts are saying, well, look for that to potentially change maybe early in the first quarter, around February or March, when we start to get those primary results in, and it really will then become more clear who the front runner is in the Democratic race, because right now it

really is a worse race. Well, there's still a long way to go, right, and of course many people say that regardless of how far left she maybe now, if it does get to the general election where she is the Democratic candidate, she's going to have to move more to a middle. So I wonder if maybe you don't want to overprice everything she's saying now, because again, we have so far to go and stances could change. Yeah,

that's that's absolutely right. You know, the assumption is you run very far left to win that primary, then you moved to the middle. Elizabeth Barren's a bit of a wild card. I don't know how far to the middle you can expect her to move. Again, I think it a lot goes back to how much she can get through Congress. So some analysts are looking at, well, what can she accomplish through executive orders or through existing channels in the executive branch rather than get through Congress um.

So there's a lot of moving pieces, and this is an analysis I think that's going to keep going on and on. Might take a take a step back because I think it used to be that we thought if there was a Democrat in the White House ultimately that it wasn't good for business right, and that there was a Republican it was and that's the markets would play off of that. But in years, in recent years, we haven't seen that, Like, tell me what happens if it's

a Democrat versus a Republican? Is it all good? And yeah? There's so many different variables and scenarios you can run, you know, is it a Democrat who's got who has a full Democratic Senate and House beyond them or a mixed sipolit chamber And there's so many different scenarios you can run. Historically, I don't put a lot of faith in any of them because every situation is so unique, and the candidates are, the economic environment going into the

elections are unique. So I think we've kind of uh gotten into this unchartered territory with President Trump doing stuff that no president has done before, aggressively hitting UH China the tariffs, threatening them elsewhere. So he kind of broke what I think would be the paradigm of the past and you have to kind of just play the cards

on the on the table now. Yeah. Absolutely, And to the point of President Trump, you also mentioned your peach that you can't extract politics from talk of a recession right now, and a lot of that is due to the president's policies, specifically in regard to the trade war, which as we know, is impacting his base pretty substantially. Those areas are feeling the most pain. But a lot of the strategists we've talked to on Bloomberg Television say that because of going into he's not going to run

a recession. That could mean that he is going to kind of have to shift his strategy in a lot of ways over the course of the next year as we run up to the election. What could that look like for the moment. That's another huge wild card. I mean, obviously we've seen what appears to be progress on the China US trade tensions. Um, we've seen that movie before and it's sort of you know, has ended badly, but this time people are kind of putting in a lot

of faith in exactly what you're talking about. That Uh, he can't ratchet up tensions much more without risking a global recession or US recession. Basically, I mean the manufacturing sector, uh, in many countries is already in recession. If you look at the models, I think the Bloomberg Economics model, it pulls in a lot of different inputs. It's about a chance of a recession in the next twelve and it was higher earlier. It was high. Yeah, the FEDS model

is much simpler. It just looks at the deal curb about a thirty five chance. There. That's Mike Reagan, who keeps a watch on the financial markets for US, just reminding us how closely connected are the financial markets and of course those presidential elections. So it's a big week for Boeing. Of course, we've got earnings from the company, and more importantly, we got an update the company mapping out a big boost in seven thirty seven max output.

Justin Bachman writes about what to expect from Boeing in nineteen Justin, has not been a great year for Bowing, to say the least. No, to say the least, their best slane product was grounded for most of the year following to fatal accidents that killed six people. Um, you know, airlines are not taking this that, you know, no no

regulators letting it in their airspace. Uh So it's really been a tough tough year for Bowing in terms of the MAX And Justin, it's not just now the fact that they need to get the planes back in the year, it's that they need to get travelers willing to go back on the planes right right, Their airline customers really need to face up to how much of a public

fear and concern is there about this airplane? And you know, the old saying is that the you know, the safest airplane is probably one that has the most attention to it. But at the same time, a lot of the public doesn't pay attention to what they're flying, but in this case they might. Uh, there's there's good evidence from surveys and such that people will be asking and will be very cognizant of what they're flying and want to know

is it a MAX. If it's not a MAX, they probably don't care, but they do want to know if it's going to be that aircraft, and if it is, what new airlines have to do to get those people comfortable that it's safe to fly again. Well, let's talk about what the airlines are doing, because it's interesting. They're gonna lay it out right, if you make a reservation, they're gonna let you know if you're gonna be flying

one of these jets, right. Yeah, the the three US airlines that have at Southwest, American and United UM, I'll say that they are going to be very transparent in this process and they want everybody to know up front when you're buying a ticket if that flight is going to be on a seven thirty seven Max UM and and the idea it's practical because they don't want people getting on the plane and then having sort of a freak out incident, um, you know, on the aircraft with

the crew, social media, etcetera. It makes a lot more sense to separate those folks early in the process or as early as possible. Even if that's at the airport at check in, and somebody finds out, Uh, they're going to let you rebook without a fee or penalty to go on another aircraft if you're not comfortable flying on the Max. And we don't know how long that's gonna last. They've been a little bit hesitant to disclose how long that policy will last, but I think for several months

at least. It's it's going to be the case where you're allowed to rebook if you don't want to fly it. And how much of a burden does do the airlines have to bear in restoring confidence in this gender? Is that mostly Boeing is prerogative at this point. It's definitely

a shared responsibility. But I think what happens is once the government say, you know, in the US and Europe and China, etcetera, that this airplane can fly, and the airlines are very eager to get it back into service for financial reasons, then it becomes the airline issue because they're dealing with their own customers and their own customers fears and concerns and questions, and you know, Boeing is going to be involved in in doing what airlines asked

them to do. But I really think that at that point it becomes an airline centered issue of dealing with their own customers. So that's probably where we're going to

see the most outreach and the most communications. I think one of the folks that you talked to, I think it was a consultant, talking about how maybe the airlines need to have their own executives and maybe their executives families, and maybe Boeing executives and Boeing's executives families actually take some of the flights um to show that you know, they are supporting this jet and feel comfortable flying it, right.

I think that's another thing we'll see. Definitely the CEOs of those three airlines and probably in Canada as well, will fly on the jet and make it very publicly known that they're they're comfortable flying on the jet, may have families, I think. I think you're going to see a very broad based media outreach in terms of, you know, telling everybody, this is what has been done, this is the the appropriate certification process, and this is why our

pilots are comfortable. And you're going to see a message from everybody in the industry that the plane is not safe to fly. But at the end of the day, I think also they just need to fly it. It's got to go back into service and it has to to fly without incident and over time people will you know,

gradually start to come back around to it. And at least that's the thinking justin how much of this is about the seven thirty seven Max, that particular plane, and then how much of this is that Boeing has to restore its reputation as a company. Right, Yeah, Boeing is facing a lot of issues, including you know, a grand jury inquiry in Washington. Their whole certification process is under

review by the d OT. So there are some other issues that remain after the seven thirties seven Max is I'm grounded um and and that has you know, bearing on a new They're working on a new plane called the Triple seven X a wide body uh and that was supposed to fly in it's going to be probably one now. But that whole process is going to come in for another very vigorous round of scrutiny when they

have a new plane that they're putting through. And so I think I think for Bowing there's a long long tail of of aftermath for this incident even after the plane is back in service, because I think that's a great question. I mean, I think, you know, whenever a company is going through crisis, you wonder about the culture within and whether or not the problem that allowed um

this situation to occur has it been fixed? And I guess that's what we need to get to the bottom up with with Boeing, right, and I think there are a lot more questions coming in terms of last week, Boeing made a big change in management from placing their commercial airplanes chief. You know, it's an open question about whether other executives and other changes that Boeing are forthcoming after the Max is back in the air. You know, that doesn't mean that the end of the case for

Bowing by any means. And of course, in addition to the management changes, we also got earnings from Bowing this week in A big part of their commentary was that they think this plane is going to be back in the air in the fourth quarter. They're actually ramping up their output and we know there's orders in the backlog. Do people still want the jet? Is that really that they are right to have that? Optimary Airlines right? Is it still in demand? Right, because it's been so important

to Boeing. Yeah, it really is. We we hear all these headlines for this year, but but we also forget that this airplane was pretty revolutionary on the economics. Um you know, roughly less fuel burns. So if you're an airline operator, this this airplane is very much needed and you very much wanted to operate the way that it was you know, sold and purchased. You you bought this thing for a very clear economic reason, and you want to capitalize on that. Um. So the flight issues that's

been a very big negative. But longer term, I mean airlines like Southwest, this is the core of that operation for many many years to come. So justin would you fly it tough question, I think. I think so it's it's it's one of those things that do you want to be the first one on it? And like we were saying before this, this airplane is so scrutinized, and you know that's the airplane that's probably the safest in the sky. So I don't think it's a question of

does it fundamentally have problems? But I have talked with pilots who say there are certain places they won't fly it. Uh, they don't think pilot training standards are the same. So I think that's another issue that people will will have to grapple with. That's Justin Bakman, a reporter in Dallas with an update on Boeing this week and the latest on the seven thirty seven MAX. Safe to say is turning out to be the year of the streaming wars, no doubt about that. Let's get to Lucashaw knows all

about this, he joins us from Los Angeles. Um, streaming wars is right. What we is in four new services coming online for new services coming online in a twelve month period. So we know that the three biggest right now our Netflix, Amazon and Hulu. Netflix far and away the largest, Amazon the second biggest and pure numbered terms, but in terms of users less clear because you get it for free with Prime and then and then Hulu third.

In part that's only in the US. That's the new players are Apple TV Plus launching November one, Disney Plus launching November twelve, and then HBO Max and Casts Peacock will both debut sometime next year. The thinking on HBO Max is probably in the spring, with some testing before then, and Peacock just sometime before the Olympics in Tokyo next summer, and which one of these is going to be the most formidable opponent to Netflix, whether it's on pricing or

on content. The perception among people in Hollywood at least, and I think on Wall Street, is that Disney Plus is the most formidable, uh in part because of its pricing six nine is quite affordable, and then just what it has. You know, Disney operates the most powerful movie studio in the world. It has these brands Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, and Disney. That means a lot to customers, meet a lot to kids. And so the kind of the on

ramp for Disney Plus seems quite easy. It's going to be very hard if you're a parent not to buy this just to save money a little bit, because you're probably having to rent or buy movies over and over again to show your kids. That being said, I am most interested, I think in HBO Max because Disney Plus could still be an additive to Netflix. It cheap, and it's targeted. It's not trying to be everything. You know,

Netflix's enemy in a sense is cable. It wants to replace cable television with Internet television, and it have Netflix b the number one network Plus is a little bit more like a cable network in the traditional sense. You stick with that analogy and that metaphor because it's super serves a particular audience. HBO Max is the only one of these new services that is similarly trying to be all things to all people. And they also of a

wide array of programming right from the get go. Yeah, HBO Max combines what you already get with HBO so Library of Sopranos, Game of Thrones, new shows like The Watchman and Catherine, the Great Show that's just come out. As well as that, you're going to fold in other programming from across what was once Time Warner now Warner Media and all part of the Phone Company, A T and T. That is that includes movies from Warner Brothers,

so that's Aquaman, Harry Potter, all things like that. That includes Cartoon Network, That includes documentaries from CNN, that includes the Warner some projects from the Warner Brothers TV Library, which is the largest independent studio in Hollywood. So you're talking about friends, You're talking about the Big Bang Theory. I mean, there's just so much content out there. But the question is, are people willing to pay for four, maybe five streaming services to get to that content? I mean,

is there room for everyone here? There's room for a lot of them. If it's everybody, I'm not sure, you know. Most research suggests, or when I when I talk to John Stinky, who's overseeing HBO Max for a p and T, their research suggests it at least that people are going to spend about a hundred dollars on TV. Some people are still paying for traditional cable. In fact, a lot of people are still paying for cable or satellite. The number is kind of in the eighty million rage maybe

a little higher. That will continue to go down, but you still have a lot of people who want news, sports. But let's say people will pay for three or four services, maybe five if they have a lot of disposable income. That probably means Netflix, which is just built in Amazon which barely even counts in this, and then they'll probably add on a couple of others. So maybe that's Hulu with the Disney plus those two can be sold together. Maybe it's HBO Max. It's hard to see every single

one of these serve. This is knocking it out of the park. Well, let's talk about two um that we haven't talked too much about, and that's Apple. Let's talk about them, and let's also talk about Comcast Peacocks. Start with Apple because they don't have a ton of programming um from the first day out, but they also do have a lot of subscribers are already and people using

Apple devices. Yeah, Apple is the most unusual in that they are not if you are going to pay for TV Plus, which is the paid version of their service, you are only getting a handful of original series. I think that a lot of half a dozen on launch day. Uh you know, let's say they have a dozen by the end of the year. But most every every one of these other services is going to have originals as the thing to bring you in and then thousands of other titles that can satisfy you in between. Apple will

not have that. But what Apple does happen as an advantage is the largest kind of the largest customer base almost from scratch, because you're gonna get Apple TV Plus for free for a year anytime you buy an Apple device. Apple sells two million devices in the year, so let's say a fifth a quarter to those people keep it after one year. Apple is automatically one of the biggest online TV networks in the world. Comcast Peacock is a

is a different proposition. Comcast is the largest cable provider in the US and they're giving again customers Peacock for free if they are a PATV customer. Seems a little counterintuitives and from the full point of a lot of these stout services is for people who don't want cable. But I don't know. I think it's unclear what the full Comcast strategy is here. That's Lucas Shaw. He's our go to person when it comes to media and content.

We caught up with him in Los Angeles. Get ready, everybody, because there's a lot of new streaming services could be great for the consumer. It's all coming in and for a look at the year ahead in politics and also Trump's scariest political opponent. Let's turn to Josh Green. He joins us now from our Washington bureau. So let's talk about it. What is it that President Trump really needs

to be worried about when it comes to re election. Well, what he needs to worry about is the fact that the economy, by most forecast is trending in the wrong direction, and in particular, manufacturing is trending in the wrong direction in a recession. That is key in the group of swing states in the Upper Midwest that are probably going to decide the next election. Yeah, the demographics, the geographics

are really important here. But when Trump considers that, is it too late for him to change the game, even if he were to InCor trade deal with China? Say, are we too far gone? Too much damage done? Well? I don't think so necessarily. I mean, the way I think about this, I break this into into two lanes. If you look at what Trump promised coming in during his first year as president, he promised four or five or even six percent growth across the economy. That's not

going to happen. On the other hand, he he has had some positives. Unemployment is at a fifty year low. The stock market hasn't moved up a lot, but it's it's sort of trading water near all time highs. And he's managed to keep Republicans sentiment behind him even as he faces a slowing economy and impeachment. I think the big unknown in the people that I spoke to for this story was what are the effects of the trade

war gonna be going forward. We're now seeing them bite into growth, bite into the economy, hurt state economies in states that Trump needs to win. However, there is still time to strike at least a modest trade deal with China, and I think if he were to do that, that could turn sentiment around in a way that would certainly benefit his re election choices. Yeah, Josh, what I love about it as you do break it down into kind of what happened right after he came into the White House,

and you did see manufacturing jobs coming back. There was a lot of momentum. The tax cut certainly had an impact. But in the last year or so you've seen that kind of shift and as you say, those key states that he won last time around, um, it's gotten tougher in terms of some of the manufacturing jobs and some

of those stories. That's right. If you if you go back and look at his turn from kind of a macro level, it's really interesting Trump delivered in his eighteen months two years, you had the stock market going up, you had manufacturing job growing is Jamie Diamond said in seen Trump had really succeeded in unleashing animal spirits partly because of his tax cut. The problem for Trump is that all that has stalled out, in large part due to the trade war that he started. So you have, uh,

animal spirits have gone away. Companies aren't investing. We are now in a manufacturing recession, and that has hurt the economies and states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania where recent polls show all of the top Democrats Biden, Warren Sanders beating Trump and a head to head matchup. That is a flashing red warning signal for Trump as he looks ahead to the election. But again, there are bright spots. He's still got time to turn the ship around, uh and

and pull another upset. But let's talk more about pulling and where exactly voters stand as to what kind of job they think the president has done. Are they still behind him? Do they still approve? Trump's approval has been room arkably consistent and about the forty percent approval, uh, you know, fifty two to fifty six disapproval. That's been true throughout everything, through the Muller investigation and now the impeachment drama. He has managed to keep. Most importantly, he's

managed to keep Republican voters pretty much behind him. He's got a solid approval ratings, so as of now, his voters aren't abandoning him as we saw in ten. The electoral college I think favors of Republican candidate like Trump. Um, there are areas where he has to worry. He has lost enormous amounts of support among non college white women who are instrumental to his coalition in ten. Uh. He is driving away voters in the suburbs who I think

are gonna be really important. But on the other hand, he's brought new people into the political process, so his campaign believes that they can excite voters who don't usually vote, who like Trump, who likes that he fights, likes what he stands for. It will be a test of whether he can turn out an enough Republican voters in two under to overcome what is undoubtedly going to be a

blue wave of Democrats. But your story, Josh, a reminder with everything that's going on globally as well in the US and down in Washington, and we've seen this in past elections before, it is truly ultimately about the economy and how everybody feels come the next election. It really is if you look at the three presidents in the twentieth century who lost the re election races. All three of them were running in a recession and it costs them the election. Trump isn't there yet, but all forecasts

show that things are trending in a bad direction. That's Josh Green. We caught up with him from Washington and just a reminder of that when it comes down to it, when everybody goes to the polls come next November, it's all about how good you feel about your job, your economic prospects. It's all about the economy. Concerns about companies becoming too big and too dominant might bring about the great antitrust reawakening. Jonah Sarah always gets us thinking, and

he does that again with his article this week. I said to you before we got started, this is why I love reading your columns. You rem find us of what's happened in the past, bringing some history. So tell us about the great antitrust reawakening. What are we talking about, Well,

we're talking about coming out of an antitrust slumber. Really um the last time, uh, the Department of Justice really went after a company tried to break it up with Microsoft twenty years ago, and since then and even before then, the anti trusts have been evolving into this thing where if if it didn't harm the consumer, if it didn't push up prices, the country said the legal profession and

the court said it's okay. So now you've got Google, you've got Facebook, you've got Amazon, you've got other tech companies, and you have all this consolidation that's taken place. And people are saying, well, you can't use the consumer welfare standard for big tech because people are getting everything for free, right, And that's different, right, And that doesn't really get at get at its power and what it can do and

what we should do about it. And so there's this whole movement um a lot of young economists but others as well, who are saying, we need to start thinking about anti trust in a different way. We need to kind of go back to the way we thought about it in the thirties and forties, where just bigness alone was a problem and we need to come up with a different set of solutions. Well, why is now the moment? Why why is this the year of the great reawakening

on this? Well, I think there's two reasons. Um. One one, I think is the growing awareness of income inequality. And I know that may sound strange, but if you think about airlines, there used to be twenty airlines. Now there's four, and that gives them incredible pricing power, and it gives them incredible power over the labor force. So a lot of people are thinking, you know, maybe this had something

to do with income into quality. The second reason has to do with all the problems Facebook in particular has had the privacy problems, the data problems, Cambridge Analytica the election. David Cecelini, who is the head of the House Anti Trust Up Committee, told me specifically he'd been thinking about these issues, but when Cambridge Analytica came on that the light bulb went on and said, you know, I'm in

a position to do something. I gotta do something. Yeah, because it's interesting, like I love the history that you know, you remind us that government used to be suspicious a big companies, right, they were constantly on the watch, and then it kind of changed with that. Thinking about okay,

our consumers harmed. GM used to say internally, we can't have market share over because if we have market share over forty, the government's going to come after us, and they'll try to break us up, and so we have to keep our market share contained. You know, Microsoft at his peak with Windows, they had a market share of

percent exactly exactly. You know, we'll talk to us little bit about the Microsoft case and remind us because ultimately they lost initially and they were supposed to be broken up. That's right. The trial court judge who got very angry at Microsoft many times during that trial. Believe you me, I was there. He definitely concluded it should be broken up. The Windows part of the company should be one company, and the application his part were you know, Microsoft were

and all that should be a different company. But um, he made a fatal mistake, which is that he was talking to the press behind the scenes the whole time, and when that came out, it gave the appeals court uh grounds to overturn his his verdict, and so the appeals court overturned it, and then the Bush administration came along and settled in a way that was, you know, slap on the wrist, but but nothing too heavy. But Joe, what's significant about this is that you say Microsoft became

a different company as a result. Right, Microsoft was chastened by the trial, you know, watching Bill Gates on on on his deposition. I don't know if you remember where you know, you know, it depends on what I hate to find that and that, and then it was awful. They really became chasened. They wanted to be viewed as good corporate citizens again, and they realized that if they used the same techniques I Using Windows to squash a potential competitor, the government would go after them again. So

they doing that. And let's remind everybody was about Netscape, right, No, no, what was that? What was wasn't it? It wasn't Escape. I was gonna say, Napster. No, it's not really around. No, Netscape has gone. But but Explorer, the Microsoft browser is not the dominant browser. There's Google Chrome, there's Safari, there's

other other browsers. So the key thing is that because Microsoft was constrained, because it no longer could flex his muscles the way it used to, that really led to companies like Google and Facebook being able to rise because they didn't have to worry about this giant up in Redmond, Washington squashing them. Okay, well now they have to worry about not that on that side, But now the part

the potential of them possibly getting broken up. And you kind of alluded to how this has become an issue in Democrats are focused on this, but is there kind of a bipartisan consensus that something needs to happen with these giants? Well, and I feel like Democrats and Republicans are both focused on it. Well, if you excuse me, the new senator from Missouri, Josh Holly, has been incredibly outspoken about the wrongs. What's what's wrong with the with

with big tech. So that's one example. A lot of conservatives are concerned beating up on big tech because they think it's biased against conservatives. I don't really believe that, but it puts them of a mind to do something. I told you always give us things to think about, especially as we go in because this will be a major issue totally is going to be a big issue Washington campaign trail. So um, certainly something to think about, big time. Joe, Thank you so much. Thank you for

having me. Kaylee Lines and I caught up with Matt Townsend about how the US economy is being supported by the U S consumer. Matt says it will be no different. You know, the US economy is always relied on consumer spending as a big chunk of the economy. Uh, you know, interesting, interesting status of the US economy is consumer spending in China.

That just shows you how different it is. Um. But now the US economy is relying on consumers even more so because things like manufacturing are actually technically in contracts right now. They're cutting jobs, let's output. So it's the U S consumer and that's what's propping up the economy right now. Is the consumer feeling good still? To this

point they are? And that's you know, one of these sort of counterintuitive aspects of the story is that broadly economists at the big banks you know, Goldman, Sachs, Morgan, Stanley, they do not see a recession coming next year. Um. The few bears on the case that sort of see one coming, they're basically pointing to consumers being hurt by

some job losses and maybe slow down spending. But as of now, I mean, the sort of broadly speaking economists do not see recession coming, and largely because the US consumer is so strong. Well, that's what I love about your story, mat, is that you go through a bunch

of the economic data points. I mean, consumers are optimistic. Right, Yeah, consumer confidence is you know, relatively, you know, at the highest levels in a decade, you know, since before the recession, which is remarkable considering how long this expansion has gone on, right, longest on record. We hit that over the summer, and yet the still optimistic. They're still optimistic. Um. You know,

the data is showing more wage gains coming. You know, there's there's a stat called you know, if you look at a stat on job openings, you know, it's over seven million people. Over seven million jobs are open right now. So what does that mean. I mean, there's a big demand for labor all across the economy and people are able to either negotiate raises or leave for better jobs where they get raises. That's raising wages, um, sort of lifting up you know, the economic um fortunes of America.

And you know, as long as that's happening, it's hard to see where this is going to change. How do you get to recession if you've got that going on right exactly? And you know, some of the cracks in the armor, so to speak, are housing, So housing prices have them going up has been a big boon to consumer spending because people are spending a lot more on their homes, and just think about all the things that means you're buying furniture, you're hiring contractors, and that is

slowing down. Home sales gains are home prices are decelerating, and it's because of lack of demand, not lack of supply. It depends on the market, but they're there. In some markets, like you know, New York for example, the concern is too much supply is driving down the and you have more and more people renting rather than buying as well,

right exactly. Um. And then you know things like healthcare costs if those keep going, if there's some sort of repeal of Obamacare, right, and all of some people have to pay more out of pocket for health insurance. Think about the people on Obamacare. Those are sort of the people in middle income, low income that could really stretch their wallets. Um. And then you know job growth. Job growth,

while still positive, has slowed down. So you know, if you're a bear on the U S consumer, you see that continue to slow down, maybe the effects of the trade war, uncertainty about the economy, freezes of hiring decisions, and you see job growth slowing and slowing slowing, and that could you know, create a sort of cycle of people worried about the economy and maybe cutting back on investment spending well, and on those worries about the economy.

I mean, we hear a lot here on Bloomberg from strategists talking about are we talking ourselves into a recession? Are we entering a slowdown? Is the consumers start to feel those jitters? The everyday person in America? Yeah, I mean it's interesting because consumer psychologies is obviously a big part of this. And if you think there's going to be a recession, do you take that big vacation, Do you put an addition on your house? Do you go

out and buy a new car? No, especially if you're worried about your job, if you're if you're work for a company or in a sector that has made under pressure. There's been other companies laying off people. Maybe your companies had layoffs previously, that that could be what you know was quoted the story as a self fulfilling prophecy. I think there's going to be a recession. There for a

recession comes because consumers pull back. It's so funny that you know, you look at the statistics about you know, consumer optimism, but I feel like I have so many conversations with people who are like, I don't have enough money. You know, it's really tight, I'm not getting wage increases, or I'm worried about my doublic You hear those conversations, and yet you see the statistics come out in the data and it shows optimism. Yeah there's something, Yeah, there's

something going on there. Whether there's this dichotomy between what you hear from your friends and anecdotes and sort of this data shows No. Granted, consumer confidence isn't always necessarily the best measure to look at a lot of consumers maybe don't realize what's going on probably in the economy, or you know, certain pockets of the consumer world feel

it differently. Well, and I thought it's interesting you watch the markets you talk about, you know, different stock sectors in their performance you talked about in terms of consumer discretionary to that, you see some of the discount retailers doing better when it comes to consumer shopping, and that can show that what consumers are a little worried made yeah exactly. I mean, you know what we saw on the Great Recession, right was people trading down so even

trading down to dollar stores. So so you know Target wasn't doing as well because people were trading down to dollar stores to Walmart. And you know, the the opposite side of Walmart and Target doing well is they're doing well. But is it because more middle class, upper middle class shoppers are shopping them buying clothes necessities there instead of a department stores or higher in places. Right, We're seeing a lot of weakness in those aspects of retail, sort

of the middle of the road. Think about Gap, think about Victoria's Secret, things like that, where they're pure discretionary spending, right, and those things are actually are not doing quite so well well in the pace of spending. This pace of spending growth rather, of course it is very important. Are there signs of it tapering down as we go into the holiday season and into Yeah, I mean the last month of the report wasn't positive and it was sort

of a negative surprise. So but that's just one month, and you know there's potential variables there. That's Matt Townsend reminding us that the U. S. Consumer is so important to the current economy. It's going to be even more so. We're in a new era on many levels thanks to the pushback against globalization and the trade wars initiated by the US. One sector undergoing a great unwinding as a result is of course the chip sector. Right we see this big time Austin Cars here with more on the

remapping of an industry. I mean, this is I really do wonder if we're gonna look back in time and say, Okay, this was a this was a moment in time in terms of the semiconductor industry. Absolute really. I mean the crazy thing about the semi conductor and chip market is you just don't realize how embedded it is to every single device we use. I mean, whether that's Windows, PCs, are iPhones, are Android tablets. All the little teeny parts that control memory and processing speed um all come from

a global set of partners, mostly in Asia. Yet they power so many of the parts that we have here in the US. And so the big pivot, the big thing that we're focusing on in this Business Week story is whether or not there is going to be this great divide, great unwinding for a market that was heading toward more interconnectedness is now might be pulled apart and

grate sort of a great firewall between China and the US. Yeah, well, okay, so they're in everything, but they aren't necessarily made everywhere. These things are heavily concentrated, So can you kind of map that out for us totally. One of the things that we highlight in the story is this big I P lawsuit that's coming up between Global Foundries, which is a semi conductor foundry, and these guys are always sing always Yeah, there's a back and forth. There's a lot

of arguments about the legitimacy of these lawsuits. But what they wanted to highlight, what they're really playing up in this and finding reception on, is that not just that there's a growing corporate consolidation of these parts, but also regional. Uh. The company they're suing, t SMC, is based in Taiwan. Um. You know, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data, they owned about

of outsourced chip production. That means basically, you know, a company that designs a chip but wants them to manufacture it, and that's massive that you know. Global Founders actually says for the more advanced chips, it's something like the bargain chair um. And so they're playing up the geopolitical concerns about this, just how concerns should we be that, you know, basically our iPhones couldn't run if we got cut off

from that market, from that manufacturer, from that region. That's what they keep They kept referring to this company as being from Greater China, although they are from Taiwan. But they want to play into those geopolitical fears about the US China trade war right now. Well, and we've seen

that play out right right. I mean, semi conductors have been a very volatile sector for basically the duration of this eighteen month long trade war because every trade headline, you know, semi conductors are so vulnerable to that, and a lot of the conversation has been, Okay, how do we then get the supply chains out of China? How do they really go about doing that? Where do they go and can they really do that that quickly? It's complicated.

I mean Bloomberg Intelligence, one of the analysts that we had talked to just in terms of electronics manufacturing, said the immediate impact would be about nearly a third of electronics manufacturing would move out of China to places like get your head around that, Vietnam, uh India, U Taiwan elsewhere, which is a really compelling, uh you know, massive shift that the downside to that is that normally takes a couple of quarters, if not years to actually relocate some

of those manufacturing centers, and also likely means that supply chain costs will go up. Component costs, depending on who you talked to, could go up quite materially, which have an uh impact on end customers. So this holiday season, you might not see prices raised, but you might see less discounts. That's one of the things I heard from from analysts, just because supply chain costs will go up.

But the greater concern, I think is just that some of these companies are just having to find new suppliers or even create their own supply chains. Uh. Huawei being the major example in I know, because of these sort of corporate blacklist as well as teriffs that some people

argue have been weaponized to a degree. Well, if you think about it, Huawei has been certainly a focal point for President Trump, right, and it's been really problematic for that company by having some of these bands put in place, and it really has created everyone kind of to rethink, Okay, now, maybe I need to be doing it in my backyard. Basically, Yeah, I mean, I think there is something something healthy about

creating more competition. I think you want that in the market at the same time, sort of this you know, President Trump had tweeted recently in August just actually I think a couple of days before the the t SMC Global Foundaries lawsuit that he was hereby ordering US companies to find, you know, new new companies from manufacturers from China. It doesn't you know, work that way. Of course, you can't just order US tech companies to find uh new suppliers,

in part because this stuff is incredibly different. This is precision manufacturing. You need a high skilled labor pool to actually do this stuff, and then you actually need the components that supply the silicon to to manufacturer. One of the things I've loved in your story is you, um, what would be kind of a really severe outcome and I'm just gonna take your words, a so called silicon curtain of country by country restrictions which could split up

chip suppliers between Eastern and Western companies. We can can you know, constantly kind of talk about this of the world being split into right in terms of the US and its allies, and then maybe China and its allies, and that we could see in terms of chip production. You know what's interesting is, you know you often think about those in sort of militaristic terms. Certainly the technology that they might developing for their military is divided up

between Eastern and Western companies. But now you're talking about consumer products. You know, we we have that the so called Great Firewall in China, where you traditionally thought of it as a software divide. You know, we use Facebook,

they use we chad Um. You know, there's a very very strong divide between Allie pay and Venmo, let's say, But imagine bringing that to the hardware market, where suddenly you can actually get access to certain technology because it's only available in Asia, or you can't actually get access some U S phones because they're only available in Western countries. Think that's the big fear, and you wonder what happens

to like global innovation as a result of it. That that's I think that you know, most of the analysts I talked to, we're not bullish about this. This wasn't like a healthy thing that they thought overall. They just thought it would slow the pace of innovation. One analysts actually told me that we could potentially paying more for devices that are actually worse than quality because we just don't have the best parts. And talk about the implications

for five G two, because that's a big innovation. We've all been waiting for for it to come, but this can kind of set that back a bit absolutely. I mean it also complicates that This is actually as most analysts I talked to you told me, this was the one technology we finally agreed on. It was a universal standard. It's not like any other technology out there where we have different standards and different companies wanting to approach it. This was a universal thing and we were heading in

that direction and suddenly we're unwinding it. So now there might be different network suppliers. There already are for Hua, Huawei, they're developing their own uh and other companies Unisak I think in China is also developing their own mobile chip set to compete in five G reportedly, and so that just you know whether or not it's a great unwinding or divide a silicon curtain. It is a great reshuffling

I guess of the technology market. And is it too late if we get some kind of trade war resolution, this whole thing gets put to bed. Is this going to happen anyway? So far as I've been feels like yeah, I think. I think that there's a longer term impacts both. Um. You know, some of the analysts I talked to you just say you can't settle this the Yeah, the train has been put in motion. Um, but there's also other things that play, not just supply chain, but talent pool.

And when you start relocating supply chains. Um, you know, these things don't happen overnight. So if you start building and semiconductor facilities cost fifty billion dollars to build, they take years and years and years to set up. So once you start putting this stuff in motion, I think there's complications that just can't be ended through one trade

deal agreement. That's reporter Austin car We caught up with him in New York talking about the vulnerability is being exposed because of the U. S john A trade war and how it may be creating a remapping of the chip industry. It's been talked about and talked up for a long time. It's gone through a few iterations, cost a lot of money, and it is opening up this week, and Craig Giomona has followed the hopes and dreams, the trials and travails, and now the reality of the American dream.

This story, I feel like it's its own little serious it is, and I think everybody from this area, especially from New Jersey, has seen this thing for close to twenty years. Right next to Giant Stadium, you know, the ski slope has been out there multi color on the highway. And it sounds like or seems like it's finally going to get open, which I think a lot of people

never thought they'd see this day. I mean Governor Christie knocked it going back years and finial right, financial crisis really threw this off the rails the first time around, and now here we are finally about ready to get it open. Well, and tell us more about what exactly it is. You mentioned a ski sclope, but there's also a Nickelodeon theme part. What all does this project entail? You know they're calling it basically a retail entertainment complex.

I think it's something like fifty percent entertainment retail. I mean it's a mall, right, but it's a lot more than a mall. In the traditional sense. I mean, you've got all your stores. There's gonna be luxury stores like our Maze and Sacks Fifth Avenue. Definitely high end though right, definitely high end. But you know, they also talk about Forever twenty one. So it's got sort of the standard

go to mall stores you would expect. There's a lot of dining, a twenty restaurant, dining terrorists, and then there's all this other stuff. The water park, the hockey Rank, the ski slope. It's all opening kind of in phases. But you know, you hear a lot about experiential retail, right like the retail apocalyas. Nobody wants to shop at stores anymore. People want to shop online. It's much more convenient. The The argument has been that people will come out

for something to do. They want to see the theme park, So are they going to shop at the gap? I mean maybe not, but they might walk by the gap on the way to the water park or a restaurant or whatever else it is, assuming they can get there and are willing to deal with the traffic. In northern New Jersey, it's a retail story, it's an entertainment story, it's an investment story. There's so many real estate story right, there's so many moving parts to this. Who's the who

are the investors behind it? Let's get there right. So basically a company called Triple five Group, which is out of Canada, took this over in twentyven. They're the ones that really have gotten this over. The finish line. It's controlled by the Gramesean family, their billionaires. This is the family business. It's been around forever. But they weren't in

there initially, were they They were not. They took this over in The big thing that they did was they got a one point seven billion dollar construction loan from JP Morgan and some other people. And you know, they have about that three billion, north of three billion into the project. The total is something like five but basically they have roughly three or so on the line here

and basically betting on the future of malls. And one of the interesting interesting things that they also happen to own Mall of America and the West Edmonton Mall, which I think are the two largest malls in North America, and they have put up steak in each of those as collateral for the construction loan on this project. A lot on the line it is. And the reason why this came out is because officials up in Minnesota where

Mall of America is. They found out basically because they're working on a water park with these guys next to Mall of America, and as part of the public disclosure process, these loan documents came out. But interesting bet that they've made putting up a big steak in their existing properties on this new mall project. Is it going to work? There's some skepticism for sure about the willingness of New Yorkers to get on a bus at Port Authority and go over to the Meadowlands on a Saturday. You know,

our tourists gonna do this. I certainly think people will go to see it. The traffic over there is bad. Anybody that's gone to a jet or a Giant's game or a concert and MetLife Stadium knows it's not the easiest place to get to. It's like five miles from the Lincoln Tunnel. That five miles can take two hours if it's the wrong time of day. You know, if it's the middle of night, it's a fifteen minute drive. So how this all works on the transportation end of

things will be interesting. They're really not doing anything besides special buses to get people there. So it's really a bet on the willingness of people to go over there and check out these crazy attractions that they've built. And they're betting four million people will go over there. Here, they're saying high number it does. They're saying forty million

people annually. Look, I mean, New Jersey has a bunch of malls in Bergen County, and that part of the state some of the most traffic clouded roads in the nation. So I think it's it's wait and see. I think there's certainly a group of people that are going to go out there to take a look, right, because people are like that the novelty and just I can't sort of emphasize enough how much of a thing this has been in northern New Jersey for so long. I grew up in northern New Jersey, and I have to say

it's funny. I was coming back from a trip this weekend and we were like, Okay, is there a giant game? Like we think about it New constantly because you don't want to be in that area because you can just sit for hours to kind of move around. So I do wonder about the transportation part of this. It's a big it's a big piece of it. Like I said, I think there's a lot of people that will go there if certainly wants to take a look. It's a new thing, it's the hot new story. Will they go

back again and again? Are people going to make that their shopping destination? I mean that remains to be seen because look, there's fewer and fewer reasons to shop at a store every day. It gets better and better shopping online. What they're saying is theme park, all these attractions are the things that are going to bring people in. Well, I guess let's take an optimistic lens on it. Then if it does attract forty million visitors a year, is that a sign that this is now what it takes

to drive foot traffic to traditional malls. That's certainly how people will look at it, because I mean, you hear a lot about the retail apocalypse, right and there are certainly dying malls out there, but they're older malls. You know, luxury high end malls have done pretty well. I mean I've been out in Guardens Date Plaza the last couple of Black Fridays. You know, reporting for the consumer team here at Bloomberg. It's crowded, right, I mean those people

are they shopping at the Gap? Maybe not, but the Apple stores always packed, the Tesla stores packed, people are eating at the restaurant. So people still like to get out of the house, despite the fact that they might want to shop for their pants and their shirts online just because it's easier. But people do still want to do things. And in a large part of the country outside of New York City, people are still out in their cars on the weekends. So look, there's a chance

for this to work. I think there's a lot of factors where people say, hi, I just wonder long term about the willingness of people to drive over there. That's Craig Giemona talking to us about the trials and tribulations, if you will, about the American Dream. It's been going on for decades. It's a retail story, that's a real estate story. There's so much to it, and folks, it's

finally open. So in the Year Ahead issue, Hannah Elliot, who tracks all things high end transportation for us and is of course part of our Pursuits team, sat down with Diamond's chief design officer, and we always say she's got the best job because she really does. So tell us about who you talked with. So I spoke with Gordon Wagner, and he is a superstar in the car

world for his designs. Of course, if you drive, if you drive basically any Mercedes these days, the C class, the E class, S class, all of the SUVs, UH, the A mg G Team Mercedes, which is their sports car, he's designed all of those. Um. So he's been very influential as for a long time there since a long time designer. But he's still pretty young. He's fifty one. UM. And he is also the one that's been doing these crazy conceptual cars that you may have seen like with

my Box, Um he's done. If you follow him on Instagram, it's great because he'll put up photos of like taxi drones that are like flying devices that he's conceived. You know that possibly could happen. Um. But I spoke with him and he's great. We'll talk to us a bit about that because I thought that was interesting. I love concept cars because you do wonder about, okay, how much of this will ultimately be a reality. Yes, you kind

of talked to him a little bit about that. Yeah, he's great to talk to because he looks like a very clean cut, you know, staunch type of German Man. But he's a really open, free thinker, and he basically says, look, I'm already living in the future here, and it's you know, it's not gonna happen next year, but within the next one of years, we can certainly expect to see flying taxi drones. And actually, if you think about it, planes are already using autopilot technologies to fly most of the time.

So actually auto autopilot self driving vehicles are easier to do in the air than on the ground, right because we already used that. So that's kind of exciting. Is he's pretty convinced that kind of infrastructure and development is going to keep pace with all of these ideas we've had. I mean, a lot of the electron vehicles autopilot as we've seen, it's been kind of slow rolling. Doesn't expect that to accelerate, he he in the air, I mean, he's really kind of out there. He says, Look, it's

easier to do in the air. The real thing, um is still consumer concerns about range anxiety, you know, that's still a real thing. Um. And then like legal issues, UM, infrastructure in general. We have all the technology, says, we have all the technology already. Basically, it's other things that are keeping us back, like consumer concerns, UM, you know, legality issues, insurance things, um, the price of building infrastructure

that sort. Yeah. I thought that was important because I think I feel like we've been talking about you need the infrastructure there to make this really ramp up, and we've been talking about it for years. But he's right, it's still not there. No, it's not there. I mean, it's nice to think about these things, of course, but when it really comes to like this year, next year, the following year, we're not going to see flying cars

in the next five or ten years. You know. It's it's it's happening and we can do it, um, but a lot of other things need to catch up first. I want to shift gears a little bit to sustainability because you asked him, point is sustainable luxury and oxymoron that was his answer. He immediately it was like, no, actually, the key of luxury is sustainability. He said, Look, luxury is is being admired by society for any number of things for your success, your intelligence, your wealth, whatever, um.

And part of that admiration requires the responsibility to society, and sustainability is how you show the responsibility. If that makes sense. Yeah, he basically sayes, Look, if if luxury is going to continue, and it will, it has to go hand in hand with sustainability. Amazing, Yeah, I have it. Well you always think it is to fun places and to see fun cars. Um, Hannah, thank you. Thanks. In the year ahead, look at luxury, James Parmy checks out

the galleries that are turning into museums. I'm like, wait, what, what's going on? Well, you know you're not the only person to have that reaction. Um. In in Chelsea, the New York neighborhood on the far west side of Manhattan, there are at least four different for profit art galleries that are at least the size of many midsized museums. And that's like thirty square feet, Like are huge, easily easily? Yeah.

David's Werner is actually planning uh an exhibition space that has fifty square feet, which is the same amount of exhibition space. The Whitney has a few blocks down. So these are massive buildings. So why is this happening. Well, there are a lot of different reasons. Um, some people ascribe this sort of kind of constant competition with one another and I need to grow large and larger and larger,

just in sort of needless expansion. But there are actually major economic forces at play here, and the primary one actually doesn't have to do with the viewing public. It has to do with galleries artists. So there are a finite number of blue chip artists out there and artists states out there, and galleries want those artists to states to stick with them, and there's usually nothing binding them

these artists to go with one gallery another. So they're creating museum quality spaces for these artists to induce them to stay. And it's not just about size. I mean, they're doing a lot of other things emulating museums beyond just you know, having really big spaces. That's exactly gerience, right exactly. So you know, galleries have always put on shows that are in whatever way noncommercial. You know, they'll get loans from museums or private collections or foundations and

they'll do these pretty academic shows. They hire curators, they hire real art historians, and they put them on but now that these galleries are growing larger and larger and larger, that means that they have more and more space to do these quite museum quality exhibitions. Well, and it's interesting, I think I was going through the list. They have cafes,

exhibition spaces, events schedules, curators, book publishing, arms, bars importantly. Yeah, and you know, for instance, Pace Gallery, which just opened a seventy five thousand square foot gallery massive um in Chelsea, UM has hired museum curators to put together public performance schedules UM that are taking place in this absolutely beautiful natural, skylit space UM where anyone can go. And that is what a museum does. So help me out here because I was thinking about when I read this, I mean

massive spaces. It's expensive real estate. I mean is it financially I mean they're in a business, right a gallery, are they? Is it financially paying off for them? It seems to UM usually wouldn't be doing it right, well, they wouldn't be doing it, but they might be doing it as a loss leader. You know, we don't actually have these are private enterprises, so we don't have a look at their books, so we can only speculate what

do they tell you that. So they they say that it absolutely makes sense for their business because one, when they have hundreds of thousands of people coming through the door, it creates a buzz that you just can't buy otherwise. And collectors want to be part of whatever they perceive

of a de zeitgeist. And if you have lines of people going down the block, but you're ushered in and invited to see this thing that everyone is desperate to see, obviously that has an impact on the perception that these works are valuable. Exactly. So are the galleries the big winners here or is it just art levers because you can get into these galleries for free, unlike a lot

of museums. Well that's the excellent point, so museums. But it's true though museums cost twenty dollars a ticket, and that means a family of four, let's say a bull with two eighteen year old kids, that family is going to be paying a hundred dollars to see art at the Whitney, as opposed to anyone and whoever they want can just waltz in. It's a free art dealing experience. And that's why Chelsea and all of these galleries and

London and Los Angeles anywhere. That's why they're also wonderful because you get to have these totally gratis art experiences. But now that these museums are actually rivaling midsize now that these galleries arrivaling midsize museums, now you're having a free museum experience. And so quite right, everyone benefits except possibly the competition, which is to a museums themselves. So what I mean, are you hearing any kind of rumblings from the museums, um, in terms of you know, they've

got to be watching this, they are. You know, there's certainly a level of skepticism. And I say this only anecdotally. I you know, haven't had official comment from any museum representatives. UM. I will say that museums and galleries have an extremely symbiotic relationship. Museums oftentimes rely on galleries to partially fund the shows of contemporary artists. So UM, it's certainly not

clear cut adversarial or clear cut purely beneficial relationship. I gotta say, one of my favorite things about New York has always been like wandering downtown and you just see, you never know where stumble into or something an event going on, and you can I mean sometimes you can wander and sometimes you have to be asked, but you know, well, you know, that's actually also hits on this very interesting question, which is to say how people feel when they're just

coming in off the street. And for a very long time, art galleries felt pretty imposing. I would say to the average art lover, who or maybe an average art lover, maybe maybe even if you don't love it, maybe if you're just casually interested, there's it's not necessarily a warm, fuzzy place. And the other part of this growth of galleries is that they don't really want these massive buildings to be empty. They want people inside, and so to

that end, they're becoming much more user friendly. Really um well, and I'm sure size for the person viewing the art. Also, because I've walked into galleries before, I'm the only person in there. I feel like I have to be quiet as a mouse. And to your point, it's a little bit of an uncomfortable experience. And when you're in more of a museum type space with a lot of other people around you, I could see how that makes a little bit more enticing, and that's what it should be.

You know, art is approachable, or at least it should be approachable, and it should be something that you can engage with and have fun with and deal with. You know, a lot of this art is not meant to be imposing, and so in a sense this is potentially a very positive development for everyone, especially if you're putting a bar in a gallery. It sounds like a fun thing to do. Um, James Tarmy, You're always fun. Thank thank you so much for having me. And that wraps up Bloomberg Business Week's

weekend podcast. I'm Carol Masser along with Kaylee Lines. Thanks so much for joining us. Be sure to it into Bloomberg Business Week Radio with Jason Kelly and myself live Monday through Friday starting at two pm Wall Street Time. And if you can't catch us live, check out our daily podcast for the ride home. Find it at iTunes, SoundCloud, and of course at Bloomberg dot com. You can get this week's edition of the magazine that is on newstands now.

We'll be back next week at the same time. This is Bloomberg