Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - January 14th, 2022

innovations and movements to watch out for this year. That's right, everything from e V fever and testless tests to fake meats, f DA not flying taxis, wellness eating and big bet on global golf. It's all in the new issue, and over the next couple of hours we're gonna touch on some of it, and including the issue's annual collaboration with our Bloomberg Intelligence team on the fifty Companies to watch

they narrow it down from two thousand. Carrol, this is one of I know that's one of your favorite sections, you said, but you know this is the second year I've I've gotten to see it at least as as part of Bloomberg. Is also one of my favorites. Its names you'll know, and some names you will, but it's a global overview of companies to keep an eye on. We'll even find some time to talk about how wine will change in Wait, are we still gonna get to

drink it? Are you still gonna get to drink it too? Yeah? Exactly, exactly, Well, all that to come, we're gonna kick it off though, with the editor Blueberg, Business Week told web Carol, you caught up with Joel for an overview of the year at issue. Well, we really try and think about what what the big, big, big teams are. And obviously there's going to be some things that along over the course of the year just crop up and and those will just be the things that you know, we will cover

as news. But really you have to kind of think

about where the money is flowing. Like, for instance, electric vehicles, we've seen just a huge acceleration and adoption and companies tacking that way, and yet there's still this massive category, probably the biggest category of all that is totally up for grabs in that electric vehicle trucks right right, So looking at how that truck landscape is gonna play out, we that that will be a story obviously it's in the issue, but we we just know that it's going

to be a line of reporting throughout the year. And similarly, you know, here we are with we've had tons of companies go public via things like SPACs, um, you know, buying taxis as this whole street you can almost laugh at. And yet there was serious money that poured in there, and now we're going to see how those companies fare on the public market. Well, a lot of a serious money going into a certain area, fintech. And you guys in the magazine, you know, are constantly talking about the

intersection of finance and technology. We're seeing a lot of disruption and payment systems in the ways consumers gain access to credit kind of love it has a great piece in the finance section UM in this in this week's issue. Why is such an important year for fintech. Well, we've just seen how easy it is UM to do to basically, like, you know, take your business model, put it on in the app, uh and make it hyper hyper easy to use.

And you know, Robin Hood really embodies that. UM. But there's gonna be you know, there there's a new players that are going to get into that space, and there's just new ways that that consumers are are interacting with commerce.

And like the one of the stories in this section that I just love is about the buy now, pay later piece and we think this is gonna be And when you think about the companies that are that are in this the after pays the clarin is like, you know, you can basically look at them see the growth that they've had. And then in the story they basically say this is the year that you will see it in brick and mortar retail, which I think is like astounding.

It's like you basically go check out at like a Best Buy or something and instead of using you know, a debit card or a credit card, It's like, what if you could actually say I want to buy this now, but actually pay later. And that's what that they're gonna They say that that is the next big wave that

we will see this year. But then on the consumer side, you know there there's still a risk there, and we know that regulators are are taking an interest in this because while it might not doing your credit history your credit scores initially, um if if your default on those payments, you're still gonna have uh, you know, potentially people coming after you for money. So we're gonna we're gonna see how much consumers are willing to adopt this model instead

of credit cards. Well, I feel like every time I buy something, I see it by now pay later button. They're just popping up all over you ready for more? I'm ready, I'm ready. Well, you mentioned it's caught the attention of regulators, all the changes that are going on in fintech. It's also caught the attention to big banks. They've got to be like wondering, Okay, are we gonna

lose you know, our supreme spot at the top. Yeah, and that's why they're so busy in Washington, d C. Right, And they have you know, long long history in d C. But but you know, those relationships will remain really important.

Why you know, loving dollars will remain ever high. And you know, as long as we're talking about d C, let's just also talk about this is gonna be a year of mid terms, and I think that we we spent a lot of time in the issue talking about that and obviously in America where that will become a huge, huge scheme as the year progresses. Well, let's talk about that I mean you do get into that in the technology section. Um. You know, we know that things like

social media has played a really big role in politics already. Um, what are we anticipating for two, I mean, leading to more division? What does it mean for how the social media companies regulate all of this or oversee all of this. What are we expecting? Well, we know how how crucial it's been. Um, the country is incredibly divisive right now. Um. We will anticipate, you know, all of the social platforms having to come out, and they've been kind of quiet

so far, the story explained. Um, so we're waiting to see what they're going to do in terms of moderation, in terms of censorship, there's a number of noteworthy politicians who have been banned. Is there a version where even you know, with with Dorsey at Twitter moving aside, like well, Twitter reassess and if Trump comes back onto a platform like obviously that would be a huge shift and and

where things currently stands. So there's a lot of unknowns. Um, But as we get closer to mid terms, some of these things were going to be talked about. Um. Again and again. My the other favorite election story in here is that Obviously, Georgia was just a huge state last time around, and if you can believe it, it's only going to be a stranger, weirder election there because there's so many elections. We've got senence seats, we've got governor of races. It's just gonna all eyes on Georgia again.

That was Bloomberg Business We get it or Joel Webber. The new issue on news stands, online at Bloomberg dot com and on the Bloomberg terminal. Don't go anywhere. More to come from the year I had issue, including companies from Airbnb to Lulu Lemon, the fifties stocks to keep an eye on. In our Bloomberg Intelligence team has done the research and we will reveal why these firms should be on your radar. Your listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovik from Bloomberg Radio. This week, it's the year ahead issue of Bloomberg Business Week and a favorite part the fifty Companies to Watch, compiled with our Bloomberg Intelligence team putting it together. Rebecca Panty Solutions and strategy senior editor at Bloomberg business Week. She joined us along with Business Week editor Joel Weber.

The way that this whole project starts as they take this massive universe of companies that they cover more than two thousand and basically start running it through their spreadsheets, and it's just like this gigantic filtering effect to come up with these fifty and really excited about them because it's not they're not hard calls. They're not you know, buy and sell recomm conditions. That's not what we're going

to get from Bloomberg Intelligence. It's I think it's more interesting and perhaps nuanced than that, because we think of them as just companies to watch. Some of them have positive sentiments, some of them have negative sentiment, but they're just ones that we think in that you're ahead, are going to be really, really, really interesting companies. Yes, So Rebecca, come on in here and talk a little bit about

some of these companies here. I mean, the one that I want, the one that jumped out at me was was Airbnb, because I feel like I've been watching Airbnb for years at this point after it's huge ip O and the way the company was able to recover during the pandemic after laying off so many people, Why how did Airbnb make the cut? Yeah? I think um, airbb will be quite familiar to a lot of us who wanted to travel during the pandemic but didn't feel safe

at a hotel for example. So bookings have been up and interestingly they've done really really well with long stays to people staying for kind of weeks on edge um. Now, the Bloomberg Intelligence analysts feel like Airbnb sets itself apart from rivals with the brand advantage, so it's very recognizable and it doesn't even really need to spend that much in marketing. So that's where Booberg Intelligence as investors should

be watching this company. Okay, so another one that I love and and by the way, can we just all say when it's like whatever whatever the weather was was at nineteen, it feels like it's like single digits, like I'm ready for travel. So so there's also you know, New Year's Resolutions, um, Lululemon another one that's on that on the list um, and it's not even they're bigger than just ath lie leisure Ware now right right, Rebecca like that their acquisition of Mirror has sort of changed

what the company kind of looks like. Talk to us more about why Lululemon is on the list. Yeah, definitely, definitely, And I think the idea of working out at home might have seemed like a niche thing before the pandemic. You know, not everyone has an in home gym, but um U. Then in the acquisition of Mirror, actually it was quite wild time. This is the the at home gym where you can see your workout in the mirror.

Um So, like Peloton, they've done really well with that move them and also has in store events, but they've they've been doing so really. I guess the point is more than just the yoga pants, and and that's reflected in the in the positive outlook. I gotta say, I'm waiting for somebody to be like mass or do you have anything else but yoga pants? I mean, I know it's more than yoga pants, but yoga pants at the top that feels like work work where Hey, first Solar

is also on that list. It's been around for a while. Um why is this one all of a sudden popping up on the list? Rebecca. Yeah, I think one of the things that might be surprising to people who don't follow the solar industry super closely, is that it's no longer super expensive. Um, you know, it had this reputation of being, you know, a space that was just never going to get mainstream, but actually solar is the most cost competitive supply source for electric power now. And first

Solar is the largest US panel maker. They're investing at home and abroad, and they've just won a major order from the oil major BP and lights gm VP, which is a renewables company that BC has a share, and so there definitely want to watch. Okay, let's talk a little bit about the Asia Pacific region and and see, uh it's Southeast Asia's biggest gaming and e commerce company.

I think people who I don't know might have been following some growth names in the last couple of years would no see because it was up nearly four but it did not perform that well in only up lies it on the list for Yeah. So the thing with these these mobile gaming companies like sees that they've got there's huge number of players. Um you know, she's got seven hundred million active players where it's free fire game, and now it's branching into all sorts of news services,

including online grocery delivery and fintech. And so the Bloomberg Intelligence analysts are saying, look, they've got seven her a million active players are free fire that they can cross market their new services too, So that's a huge bonus for them. We haven't if we're going through regions. We've hit us, We've hit Asia. Let's bring it around to Mia. What's a what's a company with positive sentiment in Europe

that we like? Rebecca, Well, it might be kind of surprising that the Boo version Bloomberg Intelligence analysts have picked a tour operator when when so many things are still shut down. They've picked two e UM. So they are a European tour operator that the I think is poised to benefit from a return to travel. And you know, we all remember Thomas Cook's failure during the pandemic. Investors are a little cautious on to E because they just want to make sure that it's not going to follow

in Thomas Cook's footsteps. But the tour Operators got restructuring going on. It's upgrading its technology and it's really changed doing the way it operates to focus on offering Childer's flexibility and access to premium resorts. So that's definitely want to look at as people start to emerge from you know, lockdowns and and go see the site. Alright, Rebecca, Robin hood Man, we talked about it a lot last year. UM, what do we need to be thinking about with this one?

Because it made the list? Yeah, So Robin hood is the one that we've thought about a lot during the mean stock friends eason in UM. But now they're you know, under the thumb of regulators, including the potentially the Security is in Exchange Commission, and there's a big lawsuit in Massachusetts that could help UM decide their faith and whether they have to impose stricter investor protection rules. UM. So if they lose, that's going to be a big negative

for Robin Hood UM. And if they win, well, let's see. That was Rebecca Penty, Solutions and Strategy g Senior editor at Bloomberg Business Week, who joined us along with Business Week editor Joel Weber. Be sure to check out all fifty companies. You can find the story in the magazine, on new stands, online at Bloomberg dot com, slash business Week, and on the Bloomberg terminal. We'll still come on Bloomberg Business week more from the yearhead issue, including a special

report on flying tax. You're ready, Yeah, I don't know. I was looking at this, Carol, and it's like they say, they're supposed to be quieter, but I don't know where our listeners are all over, of course, but if you live in a city, you've come to understand like the th the third of of helicopters a lot. But but they're not just tricked helicopters. We're talking like little little jets. I believe it when I see it. Okay, you're ready to pay that quietly? You're ready to pay for it? Yeah? No,

definitely not are you? Probably not sound like such a sour post, right, But there is one that's out there to make it kind of you know, access to a broader group of people. So we'll see about that. That's coming up next. This is Bloomberg broadcasting from the financial capital of the World Bloomberg eleven Frio in New York to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one of six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine to the country Sirius XM Channel one, and around the globe. The Bloomberg

business and Bloomberg Radio dot com. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovan on Bloomberg Radio. In this week's the Year, I had issue a special section devoted to electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, better known perhaps as flying taxis. Are we moving from hype to actually hopping in one ready? Tim Um? No?

Not yet, but maybe soon. Well for more on that, and a look at the leading players and where they stand and I guess where they fly, and whether infrastructure is actually up to enough to handle these things. I mean, look, we can't even get an infrastructure deal past right, Okay, so I got the bridges around here, Yeah, exactly. Let's check in with Bloomberg's are of hyper Drive A K Senior editor with our Bloomberg Green team, Demetra Cassiidis, demitra Um.

Why should we be paying attention to ev tall companies this year? Well, we should be paying attention to them because they're coming and there have been big investments, notably

by UH and big orders by major commercial airlines. So for a while we were thinking, Okay, these are being built and people are pouring money into them, but how are they going to be used and are they really going to become part of the kind of airspace infrastructure wherever we're talking about, And it's looking now like more and more there's a lot of interest in how these can be utilized also buy airlines, to get people to

airports and in many other ways. So I think that's why we should be paying attention to it because if moving ahead, the technology has developed, they're trying to plan for the infrastructure and they're really coming um and they might in fact make travel a lot easier. Well, what's interesting too, and what jumped out in this coverage is the amount of major airlines. You know, You're United's, You're all the big carriers. They're lining up to be involved

in this, and they're even in some cases backing it. Yeah, indeed, and that is you know, that started to really take hold in by the end of the summer into the fall. What we've noticed where there were pretty big orders by

many of the major carriers. We focus in on the lead story on Virgin for example, and their order and their work with a company called Vertical, And you know, there's there's a lot that's going on with the airline industry right now and I think that this is one piece of them looking for ways to figure out how to bring in other revenue streams and how for some of what's been going on, and how to make the travel experience possibly something that you know, is better for travelers,

but also that they can attach some kind of a premium cost to if they set up a pickup point and they can get you to the airport faster with the company that they've signed up with. You know, they're very interested in that. It's not just a case of fomo, right, like the carriers are just lining up because they just they don't want to maybe miss out. They actually see a practical use here. I think I think that that

is true there. You know, there's still a question of a bit of foamo, but at the at the numbers of orders that we're seeing and for what this will cost, and again the commitment that you're going to need to make, you know, I think it definitely goes beyond fomo. And for now it really does appear to be um an avenue that they believe will be worthwhile for them and will enhance the travel experience for the customers. Hey, what is the actual experience for people who are not in

one of these vehicles. And I'm wondering because of the

sound that is associated with helicopters. Now I know these are electric, some even have you know, uh, instead of rotors, have actual jet engines, But are they are they allowed like helicopters because of the displacement of air Look, a lot of this is what they tell us these of because because we wonder how this is all going to work, is we don't actually have I mean, there have been test flights and there have been there certainly have been ways in which you know, you do have an experience

and you see it. They are quieter. Um, you know, they're safer given the technology that's involved. Eventually, uh as crazy as the sounds, the goal for these is too now we're talking way into the future, for these to be autonomous, not just electric, and for these to be pilotless.

That is a very very long term goal. I mean right now, we talk in the section about the challenges of regular regulatory approvals for these types of aircraft, and we're talked about it in the context of these operating with pilots, so it will become even that much harder when you're putting together a proposition of pilotless, but they're they're more efficient because they're electric, they are quieter because they're electric, they're safer and that's that's all part of

the experience. A big thank you to Bloomberg's Czar of hyper Drive, also known as senior editor with our Bloomberg Green team, Dimitra Casson. Needs still to come. We're going to continue with this week's the Year Ahead issue what we all as consumers might expect in including big releases from Hollywood on the actual big screen back in theaters. We're talking about to e V fever from electric trucks, plus Biogen's Alzheimer's drug in the hot seat, the fur

industry's last gasp. Consumer trends to come. That is next, Mrs Bloomberg, you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovich from Bloomberg Radio. We are all in Ono. So too is this week's Bloomberg Business Week with its annual of the Year Ahead issue, including a deep dive into how we consume things. Tim So, back to the theaters, perhaps maybe jumping into electric trucks. I think yeah, for a lot of people and a

lot of companies. Certainly what about wearing fur Carol, I don't see it on you. Yeah no, not not for me, but hey, something for everyone. In this section of the issue absolutely covers a lot of ground. Blueboard. Business Week Assistant Managing Editor Jim Ellis is here with the Rundown gym. We talked a lot about e VS one. Now battery powered trucks are in the spotlight. So what do we need to be watching out for. I mean, it's going to be a real battle of between the large established

truck makers like GM and Ford and Tesla. I mean, what happened when the car business was that the main companies set back, especially the US companies, just sort of set back and let Tesla basically build this market and um and one reason was not that they didn't have an interest in it, but simply that the car business

in the US doesn't make a lot of money. The truck businesses where they make all their money, and so therefore they didn't seem to worry about out you know, sort of uh elon Musk making himself into the world's richest man, until it actually hit them, which is that Tesla is going to bring out the cyber truck, and that is going to be something that goes right at the heart of the profits of GM and Ford. And so therefore they have gotten serious about electric trucks and

that's going to be the real battleground this year. Yeah, I mean, and and Ford's actually off to a pretty good start. Two thousand customers roughly have put down a hundred dollars to reserve the electric F one fifty lightning pickups. I think it's pretty cool and it's actually not that expensive. Jim um is, does Ford have what it takes to to kind of beat Tesla at its own game? Where or maybe it's not even a fair question because kind

of you know, trucks are are are GM and Ford's game? Right? Well? Yeah, I mean you you you've raised the right question, which is um, you know, for when it comes to trucks, you know, Ford is the truck leader. The F one fifty is the most popular vehicle in the US car our truck, I mean, and so it is uh, um, you know, it's their business to lose. Um. Likewise, the Silverado, which is always vying with the F one fifty, is

the big truck in the US. But the difference is that this is the market that hasn't been around before, this whole notion of a truck that is not gasoline powered, and so that makes it difficult to know whether the consumer loyalty that was built up over years in UM you know, sort of GM and and and and and for its trucks is going to run over into the

e V world. I mean, one of the reasons that the pricing of these trucks is so important is that UM Detroit for a long time thought that electric trucks were going to be so expensive and not able to actually do the hauling and towing that trucks were expected to that they sort of thought obably a lot of time.

But what's happened is battery prices have come way down over the last few years, and the public imagination has been sort of sparked by electric cars, and so all of a sudden, a lot of people, particularly UH construction firms and and and commercial vehicles have started to think, well, maybe an e V truck will work for me as well. That has sort of pushed the American automakers starts to start saying, well, we don't have to just do fancy

hundred thousand dollar e v trucks like the Hummer. Instead, what we're gonna do is jump in around the forty dollar mark and try to do work truck versions that are existing. Basic truck owners can sort of say, way into that's gonna be a it's gonna be a test to see if people will prefer to go to the cyber truck because it's new and it's sexy, it's a hot company, or do they want to stick with brands that they know Jim. In the meantime, we've seen the

entertainment industry focus largely on streaming during the pandemic. Now Hollywood is heading back to theaters. Is is in person cinema? I mean, is it really? Yeah? It's skeptical of this because it's like, each time we think that we're gonna go back to some sort of return to there's some sort of new variant. And with consumers getting so used to watching this stuff from their couch, are we really

going to go back to theaters? Well, that is the big test for the industry in two however, they want to test it. I mean, they are aggressively starting to put movies back into theatrical release, as opposed to last year when a lot of things were were released simultaneously theatrically and on streaming or introduced on streaming. That, however, is not the greatest financial model. It turned out that

you get less revenue that way. Surprise and um. You don't build a lot of sort of excitement about a film that will lead you to um, you know, have an installed base of viewers who want to see it the next time out if you want to build a franchise. So therefore they really want to get out there and

get people back into the theater seats. Obviously, theater owners also want to get people back out because they make their money not from ticket sales, but from all that popcorn and soda that we know consume while we're there. Oh come on, who eats it? Who? Come on? Because families to go to a movie, and that's one of

the issues. Your families to go to films, um spend huge amounts of money average about you know, if you take a family of four, the average now in a cineplex is about approaching ninety dollars to take them out. So there there's actually a lot of money to be made in the concessions business. But you can't have concession sales if you don't have people coming out to theaters.

And people don't want to come out to theaters because of COVID, so you have to come up with some sort of great events thing to make them come out. Is that a sign that, listen, you give us a good film, we're going to go see it on the big screen, right and and and you know they didn't think that would work, and instead, um, The Spider Man No Way Home is made already one point three billion hours in theaters only, and so and it didn't open until mid December, and so you know, it was just

in the last two weeks of last year. It was the biggest movie of the year. It only ran two weeks in that year. And so it's suddenly there's something going on. So lots and lots of producers and studios and talent are suddenly saying, my god. You know, people do want to go out, and we have to give them a reason to do that. And so we're going to see more of the big name sort of attempts

to get back out there. Hey, I want to get to another story that you guys cover in this section in the year head of issue Jim, and that has to do with a drug from Biogen, the first new Alzheimer's treatment in almost twenty years. We got some news this week that wasn't necessarily so good for them. UM, what's important about this one? I mean it seems like it's a big one. Alzheimer's has been I feel like one of those diseases ailments that it's just been hard

to find a really good treatment for, right. I mean it is UM, you know, it affects I guess just in the US alone about six million people, and UM, there's no great treatment for it. And people have been really excited over this drug from Biogen called algo helm Um because it looked the show some promise or it's extremely controversial drug. UM. A bunch of doctors on the FDA advisory committee. UM, we're concerned that it really wasn't that effective and that it didn't really slow the progression

of Alzheimer's. And so when the FDA approved this drug last summer, a bunch of the advisors resigned, and so that has has put it on the you know, sort of on the in the news. Has been a controversial and UM, it didn't get a lot of sales right off as extremely expensive. UM, so it was over fifty dollars a year. It's also difficult to administer because it's not a it's not a pill, it's not just a shot,

but it's a series of monthly intravenous infusions. And even with that, it still seemed to have less efficacy than maybe even the third So a lot of doctors are saying, is it's really you know, it's this really helpful treatment, and a lot of insurers are saying, why should we

spend the money? And so finally, the latest sort of strike against it came this week when the when Medicare, Medicare big health coverage system for sixty three million elderly you know, suddenly said well we think that um right now, it ought to only be reimbursed for people who are in clinical trials, which is a big sign that they are questioning the efficacy of this drug and they want

to see it proven. And that's uh, that's important because Medicare is the biggest potential payer for this, and Medicare has already said that it's going to make a final decision on whether to cover it by April. But if it's now coming out and saying well, we think we are to only you know, look at the people were in test programs right now. That doesn't bode well for Biogen. That's Bloomberg Business Week Assistant Managing editor Jim Ellis, And that was up the first hour of the weekend edition

of Bloomberg Business Week from Bloomberg Radio. I'm Carol Messer, Are you sure you're not gonna work for UM? I can be can I could be convinced. I actually do have a jacket with for on it. I know, I hate to say I do, I I but I don't know. I mean, I didn't kind of realize it was real for until after I bought it. But Carol, it's cozy,

it's warm. It's gonna be in trouble for saying that. Well, what's interesting in the article too, is, you know, as we move towards sustainability and clothing, like you think about something that has made forgive me, I'm not proer con, but something that can be passed down because it lasts, whether it's for you know, the leather like these things last.

I know, animal didn't last. I know. And that's why this this whole idea, UM, it's tricky, and you've got folks like Gucci and why I start saying we're not gonna use for anymore? Right, so they're moving on alright. As we mentioned, that does wrap up the first hour of the weekend edition at Bloomberg Business Week. From Bloomberg rad I'm Carol Masser and I'm Tim Stanov. Coming up in our next hour. The biggest danger to the global

economy this year. Guess what? It's not the pandemic. Wait what? Yeah? Exactly, Plus a go to voice throughout the pandemic for us. We're talking about Alan Patrick Off of Greycroft. He's looking at the coming year of venture capital investing and more and no alcoholic wines. Yeah, you heard me right, wines. Well, beer without alcohol has grown in popularity over the last I do like it over the last couple of years.

The question is can they do the same thing with wine. Also, the off road culture that's bringing luxury to the woods by car made on that alright, More from the year ahead issue that's coming up. This is Bloombergging. This is Bloomberg Business Week inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. As it happened Sloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovin on

Bloomberg Radio. Hi, I'm Carol Masser and I'm Tim stan Plenty ahead in our second hour of the weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week. The issue this week it is all about the year ahead, including this year's biggest worries when it comes to the global economy, and on a lighter note, the pursuit of some finer things, from off roading in style to wine sticker shocks and really know one what you eat. Yeah, we're getting down into the

micro organisms on that one. We also have some thoughts on the startup space for this year as well from a well known name in VC who has been investing for half a century. We're talking about Alan patrick Off. First up this hour the year ahead cover story the biggest Dangers to the economy this year. It might be a surprise to a lot of you. It relates to

a couple of this week's big events. Monetary policy, which we heard a lot about again this week in the US from FED Chief J Powell and and other members of the FED, along with an inflation print in the US that hit a thirty nine year high. All of that was front and center this week. For more, let's bring in our senior executive editor for Economics at Bloomberg,

head of Bloomberg Economics, Stephanie Flanders. She writes about things like inflation, monetary policy, and getting the global economy wrong that will be indeed on everyone's minds. Stephaniely joining us from London. So, Stephanie, central bankers under the microscope perhaps even more this year. Tell us why, Well, it's because we're really going to find out this year whether the economy has changed in a sort of lasting way as a result of COVID or is actually just going through

a phase. The supply chain issues, the inflation, all the things that strange things we're seeing in the labor market where people you can't find people to work for you, even though there seemed to be plenty of people not not working, and all of those things. Economists are kind of assuming, and indeed the Federal Reserve is kind of assuming that by the end of this year that will all have gone away, and that we will be more or less back ontract to a sort of normal economy.

And there so they're assuming they won't necessarily have to do that much to stop inflation, and they won't have to worry that much about labor shortages in a few months time. But what if there are What if they just call the post COVID recovery wrong? And that's something I go through in my Year Ahead piece. You know, they end up doing too much to combat inflation or too little. You can't help thinking they're likely to get It's such a difficult writing this balance this year is

so hard. I can't help thinking they're going to mess up one way or the other. But like, where's the playbook on this? Right? Where's the playbook right? Right? Going back to the seventies, thing, you know is this, are we now in a world where we should worry more about negative hits to supply coming from maybe the oil sector and increases in inflation? Or are we still more or less in that low interest rate, low inflation world where it's mostly prices, are you know, falling more than

their rising ten or twenty years. It's definitely what I love about this. It's obviously taking a global perspective right because we've seen supply chain disruptions because of COVID. It's a global phenomenon. At the same time, you point out in in your remarks that the US, I mean, generates approximately one quarter of world output. How important is what the US does in terms of impacting the global economic and market outlook? And I think that's another thing we're

going to find out. Obviously, the US has been the sort of the big player for decades, really setting the tone for the global economy, maybe even more than you would have expected the last ten or twenty years, because by and large, the US has done better than most countries, so a lot of the investment has flowed there. Certainly the stock market in the US has done a lot

better than any other stock market in the world. But you know, you have China now um punching at least at its weight, going its own way in monetary policy. This year, for the first time, you've got the Central Bank of China is actually going to be cutting interest rates as the Federal Reserve is raising and we've never had that before. We've always had the China having to

follow anything the Fed did. So that's an interesting moment that do we start to have a different sphere of activity in China and around China, and are they setting the tone for global growth just as much as the US. We kind of we'll find that out a bit. But of course large parts of the world, particularly emerging market economies, are going to be looking at every step in the way that the FED takes because we know from history that when the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates, actually

the people who often feel the pain. I'm not in the US. They're the country's at the sharp end who already vulnerable, you know, whether it's Argentina, Brazil, Turkey this time. I think those emerging marketing economies what's interesting, and I

know your team has covered this a lot. I think it's an important factor, the diversion or the separation of what the FED does versus the People's Bank of China, and you you point out in your column, you know, for the first time in living memory's China is going to be moving exactly the opposite direction from the FED. I do wonder what that means. If the US is doing raising rates, China isn't. You know, there'll be cheap money still around. They're in different parts of the world.

What that means in terms of economic growth and really you know, financial financial markets. Who benefits who doesn't? Yeah, and so that's one of the things you know that certainly investors have usually said, you know, this is the stage in the cycle where you might expect the rest of the world to sort of catch up a bit of the ground that they lost. You know, the US starts slowing down, so the opportunities are in the other parts of the world which are still a bit sort

of earlier in their cycle. I think that could possibly happen in Europe because the European Central MAC is still going to have interest rates super super low, is not going to be raising them this year, and there's something very surprising happens. They have trouble generating any inflation. They've not got much even now. Um, so I think there's that sort of pulling down interest rates, that global impact. And yeah, you're right, as I said, you know, China

is going to be plotting its own path. I guess we have to remember though that the reason that China's doing that is that they've already had slow down in their economy. They're trying to kind of maintain growth. We're going to have slower growth in China in luck this year and last year than we've seen in decades of its very rapid development MATT could be destabilizing for that region. If you think of all the people who have been building their own wealth and their own economic growth on

feeding that amazing Chinese sort of engine economy. If it's slowing down, that could have an impact unexpected impact on people around the world. Thank you so much, Stephanie Flanders, who heads up the Bloomberg Economics team, also senior executive editor for Economics at a Bloomberg. Thanks Stephanie. Coming up, he's been investing in the venture capital space for fifty years and counting. Will hear what is on his radar this year? We're talking about Alan patrick Off. You're listening

to Bloomberg Business Week. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Spinovik from Bloomberg Radio. We love our guests and those that come on to chat with us, no doubt about it, and some of them especially so for their ability and willingness to go to a lot of places with us from an informed vantage point. We talk politics, economics, investing

so much more. One of those individuals is Alan patrick Off, an early venture capitalist who helped build and gross, such companies as oh, you might have heard of these Carol America Online Office depot. Uh, this computer company that was once called Apple Computer, also audible. He's got a great sense of trends to watch thanks to his experience as a venture capitalist for wow, half a century. It's a long long time. Alan patrick Off is Germany meritus, co

founder of gray Croft. He's co founder of Primetime Partners. We talked about a lot of things. Here's some of our conversation. Well, we're starting of coming up a period of euphoria, as we ended to one, and uh, I don't see that diminishing, certainly in the near near term. Uh. There's a lot of money washing around in the institutional market in particular, and venture performance has been exceptional in

the past twelve or twenty four months. So everybody is feeling quite usfork and uh, I don't see anything that's going to change that other than a surprise. And I've been in this investment becauseiness long enough to note that surprises, which are what they are called or surprise, is the one thing that kind of shakes everybody. Venture is not

affected by interest rates. Uh, it really isn't affected by inflation because all these companies are we invest that are so early on that they kind of can override that with their growth trends. So where are you seeing areas of interest for two and and and where are you seeing areas of focus at least for for venture capital funding. If it is going to be another big year for venture if it is gonna be another big year for

investments in returns, where is that going to happen specifically? Well, selfishly, you know, I've started in the last eighteen months a new firm coal Primetime part, which is an area that virtually was a white space, which is uh, anything that serves the age what I call the agelest community, which is enormous, getting bigger and will be the largest part

of the population by growing faster with more money. And the elder older generation is living longer, and there are so many things that they need specifically in terms of product services, technologies, experiences. Uh. And it's not the same as the millennial generation where most of the focused adventure has been. But I see that as an increasing trend.

We we kind of had a little bit of it to ourselves in the beginning, but I can see already that others are are encroaching on the on the area, and they're not names you would recognize because they're all really early. But I think over the next year or two you're going to hear names like a place called mom which is the one perhaps that's known, but it's an increasing trend. So that's my focus on prime Time. In terms of Graycroft, we are continue to be interested

in fintech. UH. There's been a lot of interest in every form of of a new kind of deal banking, UM, any place that people can buy money. We have a company called Public which is I hate to compare, but it similar to Robin Hood in the sense that you can buy in very small fractional interests UH. And we've payment systems are increasing all the time. We have a company that's dealing in Africa called flutter Wave, which seems to have no end. It's like the square of of

of Africa. UH. And growth has been enormous. So it's Fintech is a big, big area of investment. You mentioned earlier for our global audience about how there's a lot of money slashing around. That money slashing around can go into some really great interesting places. Is there any concern that some of that money is going to go into places that is bidding up areas that are going to make no sense in years to come. And I don't

know whether it could be crypto n f T S, SPACs. UM. Just curious what you think you're you're bringing up the controversy It always exists as whether there's too much money chasing too a few deals. I think that we have a lot of large size funds without naming anyone in particular,

but which are hedge funds or large growth funds. When you see funds that are being raised at ten and twenty billion dollars and trying to put money to work in the later stages of growth companies, inevitably you're seeing uh, bigger demand and just a limited supply of companies that can absorb that kind of capital, so they're going to be excessive. I don't think you could translate that specifically to crypto n f T s, which are you know, each one has its own, Uh, it's only area of

focused me. N f T S is the latest on the horizon, uh, And I think there's a lot of interest and I think it will sort itself over time. Hey, Alan, I hope we may. We've got a few minutes left here, UM, and I love to ask you a little bit about You've got a book coming out in May, No Red Lights, reflections on life, fifty years in venture capital and never driving alone. UM. Looking forward to it, and I hope when it comes out you'll you'll come on and talk to us about it. UM, tell us about why you

wanted to write a book. It's nice to you to ask. Actually, this is the first time anything about the book has actually been on the air at any form. So this is the first time because it was just released on Amazon for preorder this week. Yeah, you know, I've been asked for many years to write down things that have happened in my life. And because I you know, being around in the business fifty years. Actually I've been in the investment business sixty five years, but the venturing capital

business fifty years. You become a legend just by living long enough, nothing more than it. And so I am a living legend. I used to be the founder of the venture industry, that I was the father of it, and I became the grandfather of it. I don't know what the next stage that'll be. I'll be the former. Uh so you know, I I spent the last year or two writing this and uh, you know, I hope it will be of interest to some people. It's really

designed to Honestly, the real reason is I am eighty seven. Uh, I just tied a track coach to try to walk run the marathon. Next note, Wow, I live a very active life, as you announced my two affiliations, and I wanna be an inspiration to people and say, if I can do it, I keep going at this stage, why can't you. That's Alan patrick Off, chairman emeritus and co founder of Greycroft, co founder of Primetime Partners, as well

his new book coming out this year. It's called No Red Lights, Reflections on Life fifty years in Venture Capital and Never Driving Alone. It's due out in the spring. I'm so glad we got to talk to him about it a little bit and I can't wait to actually get into it with him once it's published. And you know, we kind of got the exclusive right we really talked about the book at all yet publicly. It was pretty cool. I think it was my favorite part of that conversation.

All right, still to come and tell it's about to relinquish it's chip making crown to Samsung It's a symbolic blow for the US at a time when the geopolitics of semiconductors are trickier than ever. This is Bloomberg Broadcasting from the financial capital of the world, Bloomberg Eleve in Rio in New York to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one, O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine to the country Sirius XM Chamber one, and around the

globe the Bloomberg Business and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovin on Bloomberg Radio. Well, this week Bloomberg Business Week's magazine, it's all about the year ahead issue, those things to keep on your radar in two and Tim. That includes, of course, the semiconductor space. Big story last year, it's going to continue to be so this year. Innovation,

disruptors and just plain old competition playing its way out. Yeah. The big question is who reigned supreme? And how about the long time you know, Kings of chip making or king of chip making? Does it remain king? We have our own King of chipmaking. It's in king. He's us semi conductor at networking reporter at Bloomberg News. Let's talk a little bit about Intel, because the company is on the brink of losing its status as the world's largest chipmaker.

I thought that girl Singer came back to Intel to prevent this from happening. Yeah, that's what he's been talking about. He's very, very focused on basically restoring Intel to its dominance. You remember when he left in two thousand and nine, until it was at the peak of its pals, it was the largest chip makup by market value, the largest chip maker by revenue, the leader in terms of technology, the best plants, the best profit margins. You know, it

really was a leader, and now it's not. It's arguably going to lose the last of those titles, which is the one by revenue in two thousand for two thousand and twenty one, and really everything that he said since he took over last year is look, I'm going to get Intel back. I'm going to put Intel back where

it belongs. So, hey, Ian, it's still going to be a dominant player Intel that is, But what's the significance of you know, Intel and the history of what it has done in terms of chipmaking and just really Silicon Valley. How is that just kind of remarkable in terms of this shift. Yeah, I mean Intel basically taught the industry that, you know, these are the economics that matter, Moore's law that everybody quotes Good and More, the founder of Intel.

It's about economics, it's about scale, it's about speed. Intel has always had the most capital to deploy. It's always moved faster. It's always made it difficult for the opposition

to keep up. Now it's facing and we talked about some song in the story, but also t SMC in Taiwan, companies that have as much access to capital, that are deploying as much capital, that are running just as fast as Intel, and they're enabling lots of other companies who they manufacture for to compete and to take market share away from Intel. Clearly that's not good for Intel. As you say, it's it's still a huge company. It's seventy billion dollars of revenue is not to be sniffed at.

But that kind of lead that ability to say, hey, here we are, you need to come chase me, and this is the pain that is involved in chasing me. That's gone away what do we always say about Intel's ability or packed yoursinger's ability to to pull this off? Yeah, I mean it's Initially when he came, you know, back to Intel last February, said all the right things, said, Look, this isn't good enough, this is not Intel, these you know, mismanagement that's been going on while I've been away. I'm

going to reverse that. Intel is back, you know, very much, beating his fist on his chest and using a lot of the throwbacks to Intel's prior leadership in terms of messaging. But then what became clear as Intel reported earnings averaged like a seven percent decline on the day after every earnings was released because those earnings were showing margins narrowing, and guess what, We're going to spend a lot of

money to get us back. And so what what's really going on is saying the right things, making the right decisions, arguably, but at the same time showing what the cost is and the amount of time it might take to get Intel back to leadership. Hey, in in a world where so much of the global economy is all about services, and certainly for the United States, we don't make a lot of stuff anymore. But the opportunity with a company like Intel, where we actually make something. How important is

that to the United States? And I think about you know, government intervention or government assistance here in making sure that we're still you know, making something in this global economy. Yeah, I mean if if you know, if you are to view it from a nation centric point of view, and Gel Singer is certainly one of those that does suit.

So the chip industry is enormously important. It's a it's a fundamental piece of technology that underpins everything, and the US you know that the ability to manufacture that is really centered in only Intel and a bit in Micron. Everybody else kind of doesn't do it anymore. It's done by some song, it's done by t SMC. Those are

arguably the leaders right now. And what Gel Singer has argued, and there's you know, gained some traction with politicians who are listening to him, saying, look, if we don't have this, we we lose that ability. It's not something you can just get back, you know. It's it's based on knowledge, it's based on experience, and if that's going away, maybe it's gone for good. So he's really trying to do something about that. That was Ian King, Bloomberg News u

S semi Conductor and networking reporter. And we also heard this week that Taiwan's semi Conductor will be spending at least forty billion dollars to address the ongoing chip shortage. That above what Wall Street was forecasting. And that's the latest salvo from Intel's competition, a big competitor for Intel. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week, coming up from post driving in the Great Outdoors to wine sticker shock. This

is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovik from Bloomberg Radio. Your head is not just about consumer trends, getting economic and monetary policy right, or figuring out which flying taxi to cats. It's also about off roading in luxury non alcoholic wine and then dealing with well alcoholic wine. Sticker shock got my attention to Stan Well, it's the idea. It's also about analyzing micro organisms and the food you eat. Yeah,

it's a thing. Everybody. Welcome to the world of wellness eating. Carol, you caught up with the editor of Pursuits Chris Rouser, who gave us a heads up on some lux things to look forward to. Alright, so Chris Ella McCoy, your resident expert on all things wine. She talks about that we should get ready for some sticker shock this year. What's going on? Yeah, Ellen has a great look ahead at a lot of the different trends of next year, and unfortunately for wine lovers, one of them is that

prices are going to go up. Um. Bad weather these past couple of years means that harvests were very small or even non existence in some places. And so you know, not only is inflation going on and some supply chain issues, people are paying more for bottles and quirks and labels and even barrels, but also there's just like there's not as many grapes. Um, so you could see prices really go up like ten too. So I can use my n f T s or crypto to maybe pay for

it all. Yeah, you know, Um, n f T is getting attached to a lot of difference art or luxury items can kind of seem like a gimmick butt in the wine industry, people do actually think it's going to help with authentic city um, and some some big wine makers started selling wine bottles or wine experiences attached to n f t s this past year, and Ellen thinks you're going to see that more going forward, because you know, if someone comes to sell a bottle of wine of

auction or directly through a dealer that that they say is an original bottle they bought many years ago. From now on, people are going to have n f T s that can prove that. It's wild. Right, you just see the explosion. I love the coverage that you guys have done, especially UH in terms of fashion and what we're seeing. It's it's really interesting. Hey, one thing, um, part of me says, no alcohol you know is coming? Why even bother But I'm gonna like open up my

mind and embrace it. We're going to see more of this this year. Yes, And you know, maybe the greatest symbol that no alcohol wine has arrived is that it appeared in the latest episode and just like that these UH Sex in the City spin off Miranda, the character needs to give up drinking and so they sit around and have a picnic and drink not alcoholic line. Um. You know, we've been testing these non alcohol or low alcohol lines for a few years because the no alcohol

or low alcohol movement is really catching on. And I never thought they were that terrible. Um, but I don't have the taste buds that Ellen mccoire critics does, and she was she's tried some of the new ones and she says they're actually getting pretty good. All right. Well, that's good to know. And I've been watching and just

like that, so maybe I'll embrace it a little bit too. Um. Hey, golf, you do have something too in the section about the explosion of golf specifically in Asia and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East. What's going on? Yeah, so really what happened is that there's been an explosion of money related

to golf in the Middle East and in Asia. Saudi Arabia's public investments on the p if UM is one of the world's largest sovereign investment sovereign wealth funds, and they have put two hundred million dollars into adventure between Saudi Golf and the Asian tour to expand the Asian tour Um. Basically, Saudi Arabia, as you know, has been investing billions of dollars into tourist infrastructure and getting people to view Saudi as a place to come and visit

and sting out and stay in hotels and play golf. Um. And so Saudi also wants to boost that that whole golf culture in the region. And um, you know there's if you play in the PGA Tour in the US and you're a big pro golfer, you can't accept an appearance fee, which means you can't get a feed just for showing up. But at the Asian Tour you can.

So Greg Norman, who is who's overseeing this investment into the Asian Tour from the Saudi end Uh, says, you know what, golfers should be paid for showing up actually like they are. They're the reason that people have watched these these games, and so you know they should actually get their do. And this is going to be appealing to pro golfers who may not have sort of really considered the tour as much in Asia. Interesting to see

that and and certainly something to consider. Um. So let's talk a little about travel, because you guys cover it all the time. I'm in the section Nikki Extein traveling the world. She joins us now and let's bring her in because Nikki, you have an interesting story about indigenous groups. They are finally getting a seat at tourism's table. It's just it's kind of staggering that they really haven't had a voice, uh in this UM tell us what's going on.

It's a kind of hard to fathom that it's taken this long for the travel industry to kind of understand that this big piece was missing from the equation, given that travelers for so long have been seeking nothing other than authenticity. But here we are in two and this is really the year that we're seeing UM Destination marketing organizations or what we call dmos, really involve all of the diverse voices of their communities in how their destinations

are represented. No, Nikki, it's a really good story. And Chris, I think about when Nikki might have come to you and talked about this story. This was certainly not on my radar, but I do think about it when I travel around the country, and I think about when we, you know, are incorporating the Native American voice, it's often a very specific kind of museum type thing somewhere in the country, and it's nice to see that they're actually having Chris a bigger voice at our table. When it

comes to tourism overall, they're such a big part of it. Yeah, I mean you just have to think about visits to like yellow Stone in Wyoming, or say you go to Mount Rushmore and you're looking at uh you're often sort of lad to look at things from a white historical perspective, and you're really on crow Land and the Lakota tribes were there too, and so now tours of these areas

are incorporating uh, you know, cro cultural uh stories. When you go to a little big Horn Battlefield National Monument, they don't tell you about customers last stands, they tell you about the indigenous side of that story. Or just think about going to the south and visiting plantations and the way those stories used to be told from the perspective of the people that live in the plantation houses, and now how they're beginning to be told from the

perspective of the enslaved people. Nikki, what are you hearing? I mean, it's not just in the US, right, We're seeing it also over in Australia. Um. And it sounds like there's a lot of tourism operators too that there's just the whole um, you know, awareness of this has really taken off absolutely. I think we're seeing it globally, um in some places more than others. But Australia is

a great example. The government there has a really large and substantial reparations program where they're really making indigenous tourism Aboriginal tourism as we would call it in Australia, a cornerstone of what they want every itinerary to be about

when people visit Australia. And the same is true in Canada, where First Nations people are becoming much more part of the tourism narrative, partially because the government is sponsoring new ways for First Nations travel business owners to actually digitize and market the products that exist so they're more visible to consumers, so it's easier for consumers to find book

and then feed into those tourism economies. UM. At the end of the day, what really matters is not just that the stories are told, but that these people are involved in the in the travel economy and given jobs as guides and given the opportunity to really benefit from the massive travel industry. It's with the third largest industry in the world. I'm so glad you brought it to our attention, Nikki. Thank you so much, Nicki Eckstein, who

follows all things when it comes to travel around the globe. Um, and this is just a really interesting part of this section. Nikki, thank you so much. All Right, so finally no pursuit section complete until we take a ride with our auto columnist Hannah Elliet And she's joining us now. We're adding her to the conversation. How you've an interesting story about I think that title on it is velvet Glove back Country. I mean this is about, you know, kind of going

out to the back country in style, in luxury. Yeah, you know, who do you do not need a hotel to live in luxury. In fact, you could just buy a big, big rig um that has basically all of the comfort of a standard hotel and do it on your own. It's kind of great. Overloading, I wonderful. We'll be talking about this more. Tell us little bit about the folks you talked to and what you saw and what their vehicles are like, and who's all doing it. Yeah, So it's really interesting. This is a young set of

um affluent educated people, a lot of entrepreneurs. I talked to one man named Eli Cogan, who is about to buy his second Earth Cruiser. These are um if you buy a new They started over three hundred thousand dollars. They're built on a midso BC truck platform, but they're totally kidded out, like Chris said. And you know, Eli is a really urbane, you know, clean cut type of sky. He is not Um, you know, the sort of like

mad Max style guy that you did expect um. And you know Matthew Stillon is another guy I talked to, Sorry, Matthew scott Um. He is the founder of Adventure Imports. He said that basically the industry has compressed five years growth into about two UM. And of course due to covid um. People just want to be able to get away on their own terms, but do it in comfort. So I'm thinking Hannah Rivan is got to be doing this. Oh you know it. They are capitalizing on the moment.

Their timing could not have been better. Of course, we remember they had an incredible I p O in November. At one point their value was over a hundred billion dollars. And there are one ty truck is perfectly suited to appeal to this millennial type fire um. It has a camp kitchen, it has this cool passed through storage underneath the truck that will hold UM camp gear, but also you know like UM sound boom box and speakers or the speaker in the mid center console that comes with

the truck. Um you know it's Bluetooth equipped. It's pretty nice, I have to admit. And this is an expensive vehicle to I mean with the first edition Rivvyan R one t with options, you can get close to a hundred thousand dollars to the truck. Yeah, it sounds pretty cool. Al Right, guys, we get a run. Thank you so much, um Our, Thanks to you, you bet Our, Thanks to the editor Pursuits Chris Rouser Are along with Nikki Extein who joined us earlier on travel, and of course our

auto columnist Hannah Elliott. Thanks you guys really appreciate it. And that wraps up the weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week from Bloomberg Radio. Thanks so much for joining us. I'm Carol Masser and I'm Tim Stanavek. Be sure to tune into Bloomberg Business Week Monday through Friday. It starts at two pm Wall Street Time on Bloomberg Radio. You can also watch our daily broadcast on YouTube. Just search Bloomberg Global News and check out our Bloomberg Business Week podcast.

You can find it at Bloomberg dot com, Apple, or wherever you get your podcast. Bloomberg Business Week is available on newsstands now, at Bloomberg dot com and on the Bloomberg Terminal, and you can also see me on Bloomberg Quicktake. It's available at Bloomberg dot com, slash Qt, and streaming platforms like Roku, Apple TV, Samsung TV and more. Have a great weekend. Stay safe everyone, This B bloom b