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Big Tech Takes Center Stage

Oct 26, 202233 min
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Episode description

Bloomberg News Seattle Bureau Chief Dina Bass breaks down Microsoft's plunge as a result of lackluster Azure sales. Bloomberg Wealth Team Reporter Amanda Gordon explains why a Park Avenue revamp is NYC’s secret weapon to keep finance elite. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Bloomberg News Technology Managing Editor Mark Milian provide the details of the Businessweek story California’s Tech Millionaires Split on Tax Plan to Fund EVs. Bloomberg News Equities Reporter Ryan Vlastelica discusses Alphabet and Microsoft sparking a $380 billion megacap rout. And we Drive to the Close with David Kudla, CEO of Mainstay Capital.
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan.  

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Transcript

Speaker 1

This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanivk. We're here every day bringing you the latest news from the world of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, all partnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com.

You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. We saw it very clearly after the company reported earnings after the close yesterday. The stock dropping we're seeing in today's trade. We're talking about Microsoft, those shares having the biggest intro trade drop since mar So this is just as the pandemic was getting underway.

The company giving a lackluster forecast for sales growth and it's Azure cloud computing services businesses, which is Tim as you know going into it, we were all going to be watching that very closely because it tells you about corporate demand. Yeah, we got Dina Bass with us. She's Seattle bureau chief for Bloomberg News. She joins us on the phone from our Seattle bureau follower on Twitter at

Dina Bassna. Good to have you with us. We've had what not quite twenty four hours to digest these numbers from Microsoft, But can you tell us some details when it comes to the sales forecast from Microsoft Azure the

company's cloud computing division? Is that right that it's sort of a bigger story about the global economy because so many companies rely on Microsoft, It's a little hard to tell at this point, So I think just narrowing it down a little bit to Microsoft, I think this is a number that is very closely watched and is seeking on outside. Is important important in terms of what it

is about Microsoft prospects. It is the only number that the company releases about it as your cloud computing business, which is something that people focus on quite a bit as the future of the company. Um since they've been transitioning to cloud services. The question you ask is whether this means that demand is slowing, that that companies are

holding off on purchases. Is harder to answer because the way Microsoft position this is um that what they're seeing is companies try to sort of optimize their spend with the word they used, which means, you know, make sure that they're not spending more than they should be, that they're running their cloud applications efficiently. So what that indicates is that Microsoft is seeing companies be careful about their spending. They the company has has not said and told me

it's not the case. The companies are actually large companies at least are actually holding off on spending or holding off on cloud deal, holding off on Azure deals. But that's what everyone's wondering. So so not necessarily tightening the belt, but kind of I don't know, looking for coupons. I don't know what's what's the right way to think about this.

They're thinking about whether or not, Carol, we actually need something well and and you know, DNA attempt speak to a good point because I feel like whenever we talk to strategists and they talk about tech spending, I t spending there like it's so crucial for our companies in terms of their businesses. So how do we think about it in terms of how do we gauge what this says? I mean, Microsoft still selling a ton of stuff us that's correct, clearly companies are still spending a lot on

Azure and also on Microsoft's Office cloud software. The note of caution here those worth watching. So that's the exact question as you put in, our companies trying to save to do more with less or are they actually cutting or holding off at some point or freezing. People will also be looking on Thursday to Amazon Web Services results to see what that means for cloud demand. The place that we we clearly have seen cuts is in the other part of Microsoft business, to the PC software. Uh

and that also has impact on UM. You know, that has impact on the on the overall numbers because Microsoft PC business is so much more profitable. Those are still very high profit margin businesses to cloud businesses of lower profit margins. So the other problem that investors have to grapple with on Microsoft is the Azure growth rate forecast was below what investors might have folks, and that's the more profitable part of the business asure as are in

the Office cloud sales. I love what you wrote, new story, and when you talk about Azure, you know a few years ago the division was doubling sales every quarter. Growth rates have slowed as total revenue became large enough to make gains of that magnitude were challenging. I mean, this was coming I believe was that from the was a

the CFO actually talking about that. Um. But it's interesting, you know because right, it's these businesses when they first come out of the gate, right, the growth numbers and the growth rates are pretty dramatic. Um. So still a solid business, it's just not the same growth rate. Okay, there's a couple of factors. They're right. It's harder to double every quarter when your business is north of ten billion, right,

the right, So that's some of it. But but yes, the CFO Amy Hoode was flagging that that Again, what they're seeing is that they're trying to offer what she said, optimized companies beds optimized with the word she's she said that Microsoft, uh, you know, customer support teams are actually proactively going out to customers to do that because they knew that in the economy that we're facing right now,

customers are worried about spend. Microsoft would rather go in and say, let's help you figure out how you can meet your budgets and still do what you need, then have those customers just that frozen and not spend at all or or you know, cut as you're spending, so that the idea there is that they want to help those customers that have to save. And she made the same point to me about electrical costs, right, so, uh, you know, all these cloud computing services are very um electricity,

heating and cooling intensive. So Microsoft flagged that they're going to be seeing additional costs to run these services, particularly because of power prices, particularly in Europe. And uh, you know, and could also flag to me that they are going out to customers who are worried about the electrical costs that they're facing and trying to help them figure out

how they can save money. Now, what Microsoft means by that is the pitch to the customer is you move your stuff to the cloud, we will run it for you and will pay the electricity bill you don't have to run in your own data set. There. Well, incredible reporting as always, and DNA, thank you so much for checking in with us. Bloomberg New Seattle Bureau chief Daina Bass joining us on the phone from Seattle. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick

Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. As we said, it is a most read story in the Bloomberg and super fun to read on the Bloomberg terminal or online because of the visuals and how it comes to life. Great video package along with it too, And it is about New York City's secret weapon when it comes to the finance industry, and the secret weapon is actually make the office better than your home. Our secret weapon is Gordon.

Our secret weapon is a Manda Gordon. She's here with us right now, and that's what she wrote about in Bloomberg News. She's Wealth Team reporter for Bloomberg News. She's with us right now in the Bloomberg Interactive broker's studio. So we're talking about Park Avenue here and a couple of new buildings, well one new building in particular, but a big revamp there to an existing building as well. Um, what are the buildings and how do the architects and

the companies make them better than these people's homes. Well, the sea for this story is I've walked up and down Park Avenue most of my career, and certainly during the pandemic. Coming into the office and seeing it more desolate than ever meant that I appreciated the buildings and started looking at them closely. I watched to seventy Park Avenue be deconstructed, and now they're building a new tower

by Foster and Partners. I watched all those construction workers filling up the bays with their tools, and then I saw for Park, about ten blocks north being finished and becoming this glistening, gleaming uh presence on the avenue. And I could not wait for the final things and the cranes and so on to go down. And when they did a few weeks ago, I was just so taken aback.

And to me, you know, it's not just their their new buildings, but there are new buildings alongside iconic landmarked buildings. The first glass all glass skyscrapers and York that started in with lever House. And when that building went up, Louis Mumford and the New Yorker wrote it was the

eighth wonder of the world. He said that people would direct their taxi cabs to go down Park so they could look at it, and that sense of spectacle and delight and sort of historic Moving forward, I felt looking at Park, and for this story I got to explore

a few other buildings. So the big picture is that right near Grand Central and then close to Street you have two new buildings designed by Norman Foster's Foster and Partners, And although they were designed before the pandemic, they have all the bells and whistles that developers and ceo s think will help bring their employees back to the office, like wine fridges and basketball courts where I was like, are you guys gonna be working here? Or the library

like it's studying. They're fun spaces. There are also a lot of wellness features, so literally the way that the air comes into the building and gets cleaned, and that there's so much fresh air circulating. It sounds like something designed just when COVID hit, but it was an idea that was laid down years before. And I have to say, having you know, spent a couple of hours in the building with the developer David Levinson. He said at one point, don't you feel good? And honestly I did feel good.

So how much of these shift things around a man as they were going because of the pandemic, and you know, the work from home, the hybrid work, the conversations and also thinking about air quality because of you know all the concerns that were raised by the pandemic. Well, I think that you know, they are eager to have with these beautiful spaces, they're eager to see people use them.

And I think that a social component is important, because the idea is that you come to work and that you're around there's a culture of your firm um, and there's a way of learning around people. And these spaces are just sort of breathtaking stages. And and you know, I've heard that although Citadel won't be moving in most of its employees until the summer, you know, they're all working out of other offices right now on Park Avenue and they're looking at that and they all can't wait

to get in there. So I kind of want to go careful, I said, library, But it's actually there's this great line lounge right, it's art books. I mean, it looks like it's just stunning. So is it going to work, Well, oh yeah, there's I think that the reason why I focused on Park Avenue Um is that Park Avenue works. Park Avenue worked during the pandemic. If you look at a firm like Blackstone, they had an investment professionals back

in the office as early as September. A lot of the bloom terms Jamie Diamond has been a strong proponent that was before Delta. Excuse me, those those buildings um have had workers. And if you walk today, I'm not joking about the food carts. There really are like very long lines for them. And that's one of the things I love about Park Avenue. It's not just social spaces that they're creating with these lounges. The sidewalk itself is

a place where you run into people. You know. It's such a great part of New York City, and I have to say that the JP Morgan building man really homage to kind of old New York as well as looking very very new. Amanda Gordon, thank you so much. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, a most read story. Another most read story, I should say, are

among the those on the Bloomberg terminal right now. It has to do with and it's something we talked about a lot of energy. I t when we're thinking about sustainability, green energy and just how things are innovating and disrupting to create a greener climate and what role does the government or should the government take when it comes to funding this type of progress. Well, writing about that in

Bloomberg business Week is Ellen Hewitt. Uh. She writes all about California's tech millionaires and how they're split on this tax plan to fund e VS. We got with us this afternoon, Mark Million, technology Managing editor for Bloomberg News. He joins us from New York City. Also with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio is Joel Weber. He's

the editor of Bloomberg business Week. Joel. Growing up in California, if there's one thing I remember when I accompanying my parents to the to the polls was yes knows on propositions. And it's like, if you if you look at the way that the state governs itself, it's like it gives so much power to voters to make legislation, take it

to the people. Yeah, and we're gonna see better for worse, right, And and we're gonna see what happens with this most recent example, Prop thirty, which be on the ballot here Uh, just around the corner um in November. Uh. What it really pits is um Uh know on a yes side, as you would expect, Lift being um, perhaps the most

noteworthy player here. Um they've been. They're really pushing hard for this um and it gets to the fact that California is requiring um you know, basically all of these miles traveled to be electric and so this would be really beneficial for a company like Lift because it would help build the network that that writers in in their network of vehicles would would be able to benefit from. Uh. But to pay for that, you basically have to tap into rich Californians and they're the ones that are kind

of pushing back on it, uh fairly publicly. UM So, so Mark, this is again, uh it seems like the tech industry uh rideshare companies like all of these um uh and very prominent um names here that uh you know are in this. Really he did fight in California, which Sue has always been on the forefront of like auto policy, but now is also you know, wrestling with with climate change. So which way is the wind really blowing there? Yeah? Well, the thing is like, on its face,

it actually sounds like kind of nice. I mean, like to to your point, Californians love to have a say in policy and they love all things green, and so like the proposals. Um, you know, electric charging infrastructure seems like something we need. Subsidizing electric cars for UH, low and middle income residents, that sounds good. Wildfire prevention all sounds good. Um. And so this is actually in polling, UM,

it's been a pretty popular proposal. UM. But again to the point that Joel was making about, I mean this all those things, for the most part kind of playing lift favor, Like their drivers are typically low in middle income and in lieu of paying the more so that they could afford to buy electric vehicles. The argument against Prop.

Thirty is that they're just asking for rich people to subsidize something that should be done through through paying these drivers more money to get the vehicles that they're going to be required to drive. Um. And so that's like sort of the nuance of the debate and why Governor Newsom, who often doesn't weigh in on props, this is one of only two that he's taken a public stance on. And he's not he's he's with the billionaires. He's he's no, we should not, we should not be doing this. There

are better ways to do a policy like this. What's so interesting is that it's being essentially bankrolled by this single company Lift as you, as Ellen writes about it's fundy coming just from left. As I was reading the story, I was thought to myself, where's Uber in this UM. Uber likes to pick its battles UM, and I think they're happy to let Lift get the potentially bad pr involved with trying to pull the strings on another proposition.

I mean they heavily drove this, UH, this other earlier proposition which was much more core of their business UM a couple of years ago, UH to enshrine their driver contractor status, which Lift and door Dash and other kid economy companies were also supporting financially. But they've they've as far as we can tell, they've stayed out of the

prey on this one. And this is this is Lift carrying the charge, notably with a couple of billionaires who are on their side, but many more billionaires are lined up in the no category. Well, Mark, let's get to that billionaire Frey, because there are some well known folks in Silicon Valley UH and billionaires themselves who are on Lift side, as you said, and then there are some that are not. I mean it's turning into a battle

of kind of the Silicon Valley billionaires as well. Yes, uh so Lift has alliance with John on Door, who is you know, one of the legends of venture capital, and Tom Steyer, who is very public you know, pro pro green person as his door. Um the Nose are well notably, Um, there was there was Ron Conway who flipped,

who supported it at first and then changed his mind. Um. Also in the no category Mike Moritz, who is another legend of venture capital with with Conway and Door, um the Netflix CEO Rehastings into it, founder Scott Cook all in the no category. UM. And and you know this is sort of it's kind of a funny like battle of the billionaires that's taking place here, and it's like one of the flashpoints within the Silicon Valley elite UM

in this election cycle. So Mark, I'm curious as to like how uh this is even trending in in polls, we have any really data on how voters feel about this. Yeah, I mean voters are are pretty supportive. I mean it's these always come down to the wire and um news

Now taking a public stance could affect things. Um. But there was a. There was a September poll um that the Los Angeles Times and the Berkeley Institute ran that found of voters supported it um, which you know is not a majority, but only thirty seven percent were posed and then the rest were undecided. So there's still still

time for people to swing. But um, you know, like I said at the beginning, like this sounds really good, like electric charting infrastructure, more car, more electric cars for poorer people, like wildfire preventre and all these things are important to Californians. It's just sort of the the nuance and as the no people see kind of a crosseness of corporate influence that that they're against. But we're watching California because often as California goes, so does you know

the rest of the country eventually when it comes to regulations. Yes, yeah, alright, Mark great read Mark Millian, he his technology managing editor Bloomberg News. You just saw on YouTube and quick take because he was joining us via zoom in New York City. And our thanks as always to the editor of Bloomberg Business Week, Joel Weber. Here in our Interactive Broker studio, you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and

Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Overall trade looking a lot better than it did this morning, although we have been I gotta say, well, we're bouncing around because we're definitely off ourhighs of this session. But if you look at some of the individual names, something like a Microsoft or Alphabet, those stocks are really way down. Mega underperformance today. Yeah, they're really right weighing down the major averages. I mean, we got tech just weighing everything

down on the SMP. Microsoft responsible for sixteen points in the decline, Alphabet's six points, Apple five point eight points. So we got a lot to get to right now. With Ryan last Deelica, he's equities reporter focuses on tech for Bloomberg News. He's usually in Chicago, but he's with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. Ryan, welcome. It's awesome to have you here. Nice to finally meet you for the first time in person too. I've read your

stuff for years, so it's good to have you here. Um, you've got a story out that talks about three billion dollar megacap route. We haven't heard from Apple yet. We haven't heard from Amazon yet. We haven't heard from meta platforms yet, but they're all lower. As we see a sell off in in tech overall today. What's going on? Yeah, Well, so far the tech results have not been what you would want to see for a group of stocks that have been down pretty heavily so far this whole year. Um,

there's concerns that growth is slowing. We have some valuations that remain above their long term averages. So there's still a lot of concern that, like as a fat keep raising rates as we have concerns about um, you know, higher yields and so forth. These is going to be a group that continues to uh just come under pressure. And there was a hope that their growth would be strong enough to offset some of these headwinds. So far, it doesn't really look like that's the case. Well, and

this is what it gets to. I mean, this is a thing we talked about a lot, Ryan is a valuation reset, right, and this is what you want to understand the business where it is today, but really where it's going and ultimately how much should I pay for it? Certainly when you're looking at a publicly held company like an Alphabet or Microsoft, Yeah, Alphabet actually looks cheap by

most valuation metrics right now. But if we are going into a period where the AD market is slower than it used to be, where you just have all these various headwindes to valuations, um and multiples, and we are potentially going into a recession. When you have all these things right now, the fact that it's cheap relative to its own history and even cheaper than the market, that may not be enough to disturb people to go in and buy, especially if you know, like we saw last night,

the results is aren't strong enough. What about from Microsoft in terms of valuation? That one is still a little bit elevated relative to the broader market, So that might be one that has a little bit more froth. I don't think it would be qualified as a value stock in the way that you can probably made the case for Alphabet interesting Okay, So what does it portend for the companies that we haven't yet heard from? Meta platforms? Is consumer discretionary? Um? But we also Apple tomorrow and

then we have Amazon as well. Um, how should we be what are analysts saying? How should we be thinking about? Especially you know, and I say meta platforms, I know you're about to answer, I'm sorry, but I think you know Snap last week, did we get a little preview for what's going to happen. Yeah. Absolutely, So we'll just take those one by one. Meta platforms U two real things that are going on right there. Uh. It is

also very exposed to the online ad market. If that is weaker as we saw with Alphabet, as we saw the Snap, that's not good news for Meta. Meta is also spending a lot of money on its Metaverse initiative. That is, um people are growing increasingly skeptical about CAPEX and a market like this. They want to see lower costs, they want to see higher profitability. To the extent it pulls back on that our discusses and thin that's going to be highly in focus when it comes to Amazon.

That's kind of in the sweet spot of both companies of Microsoft and Alphabet. It also has a very big cloud computing division. It has a growing advertising division. So these are two areas that if it's seem those same pressures that might also be a pressure to the stock going on from here. And of course, as we see just broader concerns about consumer discretionary spending and so forth. As a major online retailer. Does that mean for them?

We'll have to see. But you know, is in terms of what we get from these companies, what we've already got Microsoft and Google. I think about what's come, what's to come tomorrow? You know, how do we think about it in terms of a market, you know, an equity market reset, Ryan, and how you think about it going forward and maybe the kind of reporting you want to be doing off of these results, which are so important in terms of how they can sway you know, certainly

market sentiment, but also the actual trade. Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, it's kind of growth that these companies are going to be expected to see. This is what people have been focusing on really all year, and people keep hoping that because of their place in the economy, because they are in such like dynamic markets, that they're gonna be able to pull it out. They've been market leaders just for years and years, but this year they are now leading on the downside as people have found

more opportunity in sectors like energy and so forth. So where this goes from here, it's it's really hard to say, but so far they're not making the case just purely on a fundamental basis, just based on the results that they've seen and where the stock has been trading. Is this like a regime shift? I mean, when we think big picture, if we think over the last decade, low interest rates, the NaSTA Actress performing so well, where are we as you talk to analysts looking forward here? That's

a great question. This is something I do make a point of asking everyone I talk to you, just because I am kind of curious about it myself. I guess I would say one thing I hear a lot is that when the market eventually recovers, most people expect it to be different leaders than we saw in the previous one, which would suggest that maybe it's not going to be

tech this time. However, if you look at a long term growth picture, people still see very strong growth potential for cloud computing, for software, for online retail, for all of these different categories that you expect that these companies have been emitted from for for years and years. So I do think that no one is really ready to throw in the towel, at least on big tech, which

is so dominant, has such strong market positions. I think they're more respectultive parts of tech that people are like you know, maybe not quite yet. I think about three companies big in my life, and that has to do with Google, Alphabet, Apple and Amazon, like every day. I'm just kidding anymore, right, Ryan, Thank you so much. Ryan the Stellica Equities reporter at Bloomberg News normally in Chicago, but lucky for us here in our studio, I'm Robb journal. Yeah,

but you let me drive? No, no, no, who's going to home? Please? I'll do. I want to drive. It's a good question. Drive. This is the drive to the clothes on bloom Bird Radio. All right, everybody, just about nine minutes left in today's trading session. We're just about thirteen minutes away, I think from Meta earnings. We're also going to hear from Ford. Who am I missing service? Now? I don't know. I was reading notes you said, Ford. Oh yeah, of course, thank you a yeah on it.

But Met is a big one that we really want to know when it comes to add spending and gonna tomorrow? What Alpha can yesterday? Apple tomorrow and Amazon? Come on, yeah we can, but okay, I'll try. All Right, Meta by the way down six or seven percent, as we've seen big tech, right, Microsoft, Google really under pressure underperforming. Even though the NAZAC down to present, they're down a lot more today. Okay, So dragging down the NASDAC one hundred,

the NASTAC can posit the SMP five hundred. Doesn't say anything bigger about the economy and about other companies. That's the question we're going to post a David Coudlaw, founder and CEO and chief investment Strategies as well at Mainstay Capital Management, close to four billion dollars in assets under management. David joining us on the phone from Michigan. David, how are you good? Good afternoon, Tim, Good afternoon, Carol, good, good afternoon. So we're in the midst of it. We

had an alphabet of course, and Microsoft yesterday. Those shares just tanking today and dragging down the indusseries. Uh does it say something bigger? And asked this question to our Dina Bass a little earlier, But I'm curious what you think. Do these results say anything bigger about the U S economy and the global economy. Uh, they're saying something bigger about and and and they have such a you know, these two stocks alone have such a waiting on both

the SNP and especially the NaSTA composite. Alphabet and Microsoft together make up nine point four percent of the waiting for the SMP five hundred and seventeen point two percent for the NaSTA composite. So certainly, as much as both of them are down today, they're weighing down those indexes

a lot. But what we've seen with UM, with Alphabet, Google, YouTube, Snap, we've seen that advertising revenues are following, and I think it says, you know, this is a big tech week for earnings, and it's saying more about what's happening with AD revenue for some of these big tech companies, and the revenue on AD AD spending is falling. Revenue is falling as a result of that UM. We're we've seen that, you know, these companies have been the big leaders there

now looking at hiring freezes, maybe even cutting staff. So, uh, you know, certainly we're seeing the impacts of the broader economy impacting these companies. What did it tell you about the broader economy, David, Well, Uh, if if we if we broaden out in terms of you know what, you know, we expected in the third quarter that we would start to see earnings impacted more and certainly earnings were revised

down for the third quarter. Earnings were as high as nine point eight percent back on June anticipated for the third quarter that we're down about one and a half percent expected. So on those lower expectations, seventy companies are beating that have reported so far, but we've only had a little more than s and companies reporting. Um. Certainly, uh, you know, as we look into next year, we'll see we expect the economy and effect earnings more as was

expected this quarter, but didn't really see it yet. Um. But but but certainly we're seeing that. You know, what the Fed is doing is certainly have an impact on the economy, right exactly, all right, So you know, um, we can all we do this on a regular basis, as you probably know. But it's like, you know, are we bought me out though on the equity trade and how much of the bad news or expectations around it

is factored in? Are we topping out for rates? We can have those conversations, but at the same time, you guys and everybody else you know, has to put money to work or you can park get in cash or some cash like investment. What are you doing in this environment environment? So we had this. Uh you know, we had a low at the beginning of October, a lower low than we had in June. Uh and we don't

know yet. I'm not even willing to say that it's the low for this cycle, but it's certainly an intermediate term low and an investible low because uh, you know, we have uh you know, encouraging data in the settings report that we didn't think. I think the you know, the broader impact earnings as we talked about, has been

pushed out into the fourth quarter or next year. Uh. So we're seeing this rally because we see the as the terminal rate for the is approaching um whether we call it a pivot or a pause or whatever it may be. Uh. And at at the same time, you know, we're seeing these decent earnings, So we think that that we've got an investible rally here. We are invested in growth and value. What's become more attractive more recently is

small cap stocks that we've added to our portfolio. But we're we've got our portfolio hedges in place still because we know there's more volatility ahead. So help us understand how you're looking at the FEDS terminal rate not in terms of what you think it's going to be. But how long the Fed is gonna is going to leave interest rates? And look, I know everything is context and historical context here, but I would argue that in my lifetime,

this is high for the federal reserve. U would you say that, how long would you say that federal the Fed will leave rates high? Well, it's it's a tough question. And I say that because the Fed has has never stopped the hike cycle with headline and core inflation above the Fed funds rate, They've always reached a positive real rate. We're a long way away from that right now. Uh, you know, we'll see what our next inflation rate is.

We'll see what that trend becomes. But you know, if we're talking about a terminal rate, if it's somewhere between four and a half to five percent right now, Uh, maybe a little bit higher depending on whose prediction you you believe, Um, that doesn't get us above the inflation rate on headline or core. And so that means there's more to go. Now, what could happen is inflation and

specifically core starts to come down more. We're certainly seeing we're seeing rents come down, we're seeing housing come down. We're seeing used car prices come down. Uh, some falling, some areas of the economy falling precipitously. So we're seeing those impacts and and those inflation inputs coming down. Hey, David, just quickly, um thirty seconds here, you said it's an investible rally. Is something like Google and Microsoft with those shares down? Is that something you would invest in in?

Just quickly, yeah, I think I think for a trade certainly, uh, and longer term, these are the secular growth stories. I think the differences as we look further out, you know, what are going to be the leaders There's been this conversation about, uh, will it be technology has been for the last ten years, or will be their other leadership? But certainly for a trade, Uh, these are certainly investable. All right, good to know. I really appreciate your time today.

David Coudla, who's founder, CEO and c I O of the mainstay capital management firm. They've got some three point eight billion in assets under management, joining us once again on the phone from Michigan. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud or Bloomberg dot com and you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News

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