Biden Looks to Raise Global Pressure on Putin With Xi Call

Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Earlier this year, Anthem came out talking about medical costs this year, saying they would still be elevated due to COVID nineteen. Really a sign that the pandemic will continue to cast a shadow over the health industry as it is in its third year the pandemic.

Just yesterday, Tim two, we heard from the US Federal Reserve about its campaign to tackle the overall fastest US inflation in four decades, and that certainly includes things like healthcare. It's so interesting, Carol, when we talk about inflationary pre sure, we often talk about gas prices. We talked about food prices, and we don't necessarily talk about health health prices because we're used to them going up. Um. But let's get into it with g By, Professor of Health Policy and

Management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. It is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. G really really good to have you with us. Um, what have you been focused on at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health when it comes to inflationary pressure on the health care industry? Thank you, Kim Sanko Carroll.

I have been focusing on the hospital cost structure because that would be the driving force for a price inflation in the hospital setting. Okay, we'll tell us a bit more about that. When you say hospital cost structure, Um, you know, gee, it's probably I'm safe to say that there's folks in our audience are like, okay, so what does that mean, building beds, medicines, what does it mean? Yes, our study found that they labor cost and the medical

supply costs are the key components for hospital costs. So due to the labor shortages, especially nursing shortages, labor costs has risen dramatically for hospitals. How much and then how much has how much has it gone up? Like if is there a number you can give it to us. Sure, Sometimes hospitals have to hire traveling nurses because there's no local nurses to hire, and the price can be doubling or traveling what the hospital has been paying for their

own local nurses. But we've heard a lot of stories about that, and in fact, the pay has been so good for these traveling nurses that you find some nurses quitting to go join these traveling nursing firms because they can make so much more money. G Who gets affected the most when we think about inflationary pressures when it comes to healthcare? Who who are the victims out there? Unfortunately? I think the middle class working Americans will be the

main victims of healthcare price inflations. You know, they are more financially vulnerable than also individuals. More importantly, they are more exposed to health care inflation than the lower income individuals. Why because lower income in populations sometimes they were often they're road in MEDICAIDS and other type payers subsidize. The

program was very limited out of pocket explosives. But the middle class working Americans, in many cases, they are under insured, so they have not only to pay the high premiums, also had to pay on a pocket when they have a medical episode. I feel like, um gee, that this is so much um part of a larger story that we have been talking for the last couple of decades. I think about, you know, when the Clintons were in the White House, when Bill Clinton was president and his

wife at that time, first Lady Hillary Clinton. You know, it was working on healthcare for the first go round, uh and putting something together, and of course it was until President Obama that we actually got something through. But we continue to look at the cost of healthcare obviously exacerbated right now because of these inflationary times that were within, but as something bigger or more broadly broken with the system. I mean, anybody who picks up a medical bill or

hospital bill. We're so grateful if we have insurance because so much is covered, but we're always blown away by the costs. Absolutely, Thank you, Carroll. Your previous healthcare reforms have been focused on expanding insurance coverage. Right, But as we have seen, extended coverage has not yet solved the longstanding problem of the cost as well as in the poor outcomes that have really plagued the US healthcare system.

So you know, in my study we found that, you know which, the current the highly subsidized insurance systems give consumers and providers very little incentive opportunity right to provide or speak appropriate to care that it is efficient and the tree affordable. Why. I believe that is the main reasons underlying the high cost of law outcomes. So let's professor by push the solutions here and try to give us an understanding of what your research has said about

the right way to solve these problems. And look inflationary pressure, it's everywhere right now, we heard that from the Fed chair yesterday. But when it comes specifically to healthcare, how do you bring costs down? I believe the government has limited ability to bring healthcare down. Let's look at the

Affordable Care Act, right. In order for that legislation to pass, the Congress has to have the support from the industry, and industry will not give Congress the power to redeo the price that will hurt their own interests, right, So I do believe eventually we need some kind of market

force competition to help lower the cost. So for example, we should like the patients be able with the payers, be able to do comparison shopping like transparency and give them better insurance options, and also easing the government regulations that actually add a cost and efficiency to the system. Well, we all talk about you. You know, you look at some other countries. Maybe it's not apples to apples in terms of health care systems, but there seems to be

some better ways of certainly rating in cost um. Gee we gotta run, Thank you so much. Gee buy. She is Professor of Health Policy and Management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, of course, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Joining us on the phone from Washington, d C. You know, it's funny I think about the new issue Bloomberg Business Week. We're gonna get into it in a little bit. It's the

equality issue. And it's finally, you know, the inequalities in the system really tackling people who are actually doing something to make things better. And I think health care. It's just so tricky. Not a lot of optimism. No, well, it's very entrenched and there's a lot of money at stake. All right, you're listening to Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim

Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, geopolitical relationships, they are definitely being tested amid the Russian invasion and war with Ukraine. And keeping with that, President Joe Biden is meeting with Chinese President jijimping to try and coax him interacting at pressure on Moscow to end its war in Ukraine. It will be present Biden's first phone call with the Chinese president since the invasion began. Oh, to be a fly on the virtual wall, as I said earlier, Yeah, that

would certainly be something. Jody Schneider is political news director at Bloomberg Television in Radio. She joins us from the Bloomberg studio in Washington, d C. And you can see her via zoom as well if you're watching us on YouTube, um or via you know, a camera, an actual camera, not via zoom, because she's in one of our studios. Jody, Um, what is the latest when it comes to diplomatic talks.

When when we think about Russia's invasion of Ukraine, thinking beyond what Biden and She are going to talk about tomorrow, just what we've learned today. Yeah, Tim, Well, diplomatic is an interesting word in this sense. I'm not sure how much actual diplomacy is going on. We do have, as you noted, Joe Biden and She jumping speaking tomorrow and that has um, you know, all the world watching. But at the same time, UM, we don't know that the

expectations are very high for that that talks. I think it's more kind of what it sounds like is a check in both on Russia Ukraine, but also they haven't spoken in a while, and trade and other things could come up. Uh. At the at the same time, we have in the talks with h Russia, between Russia and Ukraine, and it seems odd that there are talks going on, but there are talks going on. But a Kremlin official spokesperson said the report of major progress in the talks

was wrong, but he said talks would still continue. So we're not seeing a whole lot there, but they are talking, uh. And the problem, of course is that neither side really wants to move off of its points that need to happen before they'll have serious progress and talks. Ukraine says it has to have a ceasefire, it has to have a withdrawal of Russian troops and they have to promise they won't come back. And Russia says it needs Ukraine, UH, basically to give up its hopes of NATO and its

hopes of being part of the rest of Europe. I gotta say, Jody, tib and I've been talking a lot about China, the relationship with the US Russia. Which relationship is more important? UH. And we've done that with our Andy Brown of New Economy. We've also done it with Tiff Roberts, who as the former Bloomberg business Week editor and was based in China. Both of them understand the

region a lot. I want to ask you, though, because you understand politics, you understand how the diplomatic sausage is done. I mean, tell me how this goes down when you have diplomacy. As you said, I almost feel like I need to use quotes about it around it between two superpowers like the U S and China, How does it go down in a situation that's very tense, like the one we are in today. Lots of formalities and sugarcoat of conversation or are there get real moments between the

two leaders. Yeah, I think again between China and the US. I think the fact that they're getting on the phone and talking is important in and of itself. And we said this during the trade talks when they may not be going you know, they weren't going particularly well, and that they may not have big uh you know asks and and certainly not big to do lists. Uh. We're not necessarily achieved off those calls, but the fact that they had them, that they're still talking is important. And

I think what's important in this uh. And and we've written about this, you know, it's stories on the terminal. Uh is that uh for she for for she jumping At this point, he's got a lot on his plate, right. Uh. The economy is not going exactly the way they want. They're still they're locking down major cities. Shenzhen, across the border from Hong Kong is in lockdown, a place that you know, was a thriving technology hub they called the Silicon Valley of China. They wanted to be that nothing's

going on there now it's in total lockdown. Uh they have you know, there's a lot of things going on in China, and now there's this on the world stage. She jumping had Vladimir Putin for a visit before the Olympics. He attended the Olympics, all seem well. We think the message there was if you're going to go into Ukraine, do not do it while the Olympics are still on. Wait until the Olympics are over, which which Vladimir Putin did. But now I think even China is sort of walking away,

not necessarily walking away from overall support. That relationship between uh Putin and Ji Jianping remains, and the relationships into the country's obviously, But at the same time, we've heard in recent days rhetoric from China that really seems to say, well, we are not we don't want to become a pariah on the world stage over this. For instance, the rhetoric to to Ukraine about you China will not be unfriendly to Ukraine, which is a very interesting statement. Yeah, it

certainly is. All right, Jodi, thank you so much. Jody Schnyder. She is political news director of Limberg Television Radio. She's joining us from our ny I one studio in the nation's capital. This is Bloomberg business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. The

new issue of Bloomberg Business Week it is out. The domestic cover is about baby Bonds, one of the stories making up the annual Equality Issue coverage, which this year looks at people really trying to make change and bring about change, actual actions being done in better our world. Joel Weber is editor at Bloomberg Business Week. He's with

us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. Along with us, is the author of that cover story, Ben Steve Bermani's personal finance editor at Bloomberg News with us again in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Ben's story is the US cover, as Carol mentioned, of the business Week magazine Equality Issue, available on news stands, on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week. Uh, Joel, because this is

the cover story here in the US, the Equality Issue. UH, talk to us a little bit about about why this story, why baby Bonds, is the one that you are focusing on as sort of the overall arching concept for the

equality issue. Well, we wanted something that really could tie that package together, and they're, like you mentioned one of the elements that that we tried to do with this equality issue is like, look, we can talk about the problems, but there's also places that we're beginning to see some progress and and baby buns which aren't actually baby buns, but we'll get there in a second, are are an

early example of that. And there's been chatter at sort of a federal level, but where it's actually where the movement's actually happening is on a state level. And been found a really interesting character that we could drive that story through UM and then the art department just came up with this an amazing you know, fake baby bond that UM I thought was iconic. Right it's and often when we think about the cover, how do I make

that iconic and breakthrough? And obviously we have an international cover that's all about UM yet uh you know, ongoing coverage of Ukraine and Russia and the fallout there. But this was also was something that I just wanted to make sure that we continue to prioritize because look like here we are going on two years post George Floyd. We do accounting that in the issue, and it's also like, let's make sure that we continue to prioritize this coverage

going forward. But let's talk about Ben's story because it's not a baby bond, it's actually a trust fund. And what why is it breaking through on a state level when it when it didn't do that on a on a federal one yet. Well, I think after George Floyd's murder, state lawmakers, local lawmakers were just scrambling looking for a solution and they this is something that Derrick Hamilton's the subject of this story, has been talking about for more

than a decade UM. And he's a progressive economist. He was a big Bernie Sanders supporter. But this is an idea that seems to be getting much broader um appeal um mostly Democrats, but there are some Republicans who have signed on as well. And the idea is give give a certain amount of money to kip babies when they're born.

Um these states, they're only setting aside about three thousand dollars, which doesn't seem like very much, but you invest it and that could be more than ten thousand dollars by the time they're eighteen, and then allow them to use that for some wealth building purposes like education, UM, homeownership, UM, starting a business. And the idea is, let's let's use this as a one tool of many, maybe to narrow the racial wealth gap, which is, as we know, is

very persistent and has been um lasted for decades. Even as Black Americans have made huge progress in a lot of other areas, their wealth really hasn't. The wealth gap has not narrowed at all. Oh go ahead, please, So narrowing the wealth gap is the ultimate goal here, right, or or creating a device that can help do that. I think I know how that's going to go over on the left side of the aisle. How has it gone over on the right side of the aisle? Well?

The thing is this is this is UM. You know, when Derrick Hamilton's um started talking about this UM, he was basically he had been talking about reparations and he still talks about reparations. But people were like, well, let's give us something that's actually gonna pass, something that's actually gonna work. UM and I get through the legislature as we came up with this. But the idea is, um, uh,

let's let's make this race neutral. This isn't as focused on Black Americans, as focused on focused on every kid in America. Potentially, if you have the full Derrick Hamilton, like a much more expansive, generous federal program, but then you give the most money to the poorest kids. And because race and wealth are so correlated in this country, um, you actually end up giving a real boost to Black Americans.

But you also give a big boost of rural areas, which are for the most part represented by Republicans these days. And there's been huge capital drain out of rural communities where people are growing up and they're getting into young adulthood and they don't have the capital to start that business or to go to vocational school or whatever. So um, these folks who are passing these things, that's Washington State is working on something. Massachusetts, UM, Connecticut and DC already

have them. They're really trying to appeal to everyone across the spectrum, saying by saying this is can this can help people in your community? Well, and it really speaks to and I feel like we are all getting smarter about the words we use. Right, we still talk about making more money or making you know, higher income. But it's not about that. It's about wealth creation, right, and

that comes through generational wealth, it comes through homes. And there's many people, as we know we keep identifying that have been left behind and this is a way to give them a leg up. Yeah, you know that's one of them. Create wealth. Yeah, and wealth that This is one of the core concepts behind baby bond. Is it just the importance of wealth? Like making more money in one year? Okay, so you make four thousand dollars more and you're able to save you know, a thousand of it.

Is that really going to change your life in a significant way? Is that I'm going to change your children's life or your grand children's life. Probably not. But what if you can build build um some home equity, What if you can get a college degree that will really triple your earnings or or could you do your earnings over your lifetime? Those are the things that really build

wealth over multiple generations. And those that those are the opportunities that Black Americans and other poor Americans have not been allowed to do all up over years. So then just in the last minute that we have with you, the confidence that you have based on your reporting that there will be widespread adoption of this on a state or or local level versus that federal level that you'll

will refer to earlier. So we already have these programs in Connecticut, in d C. And um, we think it will probably get I think it's going to get some momentum in some blue states, UM, a few others. New York has there's a proposal there as well. So I think it's all going to depend on how maybe how this money is going to be used and is it

actually going to make a difference. Um, you know, I think the results will maybe create the political will to do something much more significant on the federal level if this is a successful policy, right, Like I do think everybody's gonna be watching right as it rolls out, as it's put to use, and the difference that makes in these individuals lives. Let's hope it does. Um, great story, Ben, Thank you so much. Ben Stepherman, Personal Finance editor, Bloomberg News,

along with Chill Weber, Editor Bloomberg business Week. Check out the new issue of Business Week. It is the equality issue. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes, Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, the oracle of Omaha himself, we know he likes to get greedy when others are being too fearful, which may explain Berkshire Hathaway raising its stake in Occidental Petroleum by more than eighteen million shares. Are more shares, I should say

this week. So let's find out and put it into context of what Buffett and Berkshire up to. Let's bring catch to Glinsky. She's finance reporter at Bloomberg News. She follows all things Warren Buffett and Berkshire and the finance base, along with Justin Zach's Bloomberg News Equities report at Bloomberg News, both here in our interactive broker studio. Alright, Cat to lay it out for us, what is Berkshire up to? It's been a busy past few weeks, Berkshire, they have

been that way. Yeah, they've been all in on Occidental stock. And even this week Monday through Wednesday, they bought um eighteen point one million additional shares. So now they have a total common equity stake, have seven point one billion dollars in Accidental and that's just in addition to the ten billion dollars in preferred stock and warrants they already owned in the company. You know you you brought up. Can I just say, Timmy, you brought up on our

planning call? You're like, what was it? Somebody who was just selling? Right? Yeah? So I I saw this and I was like, wait, So I saw this, you know a couple of weeks ago when I con sold, and I was like, Okay, maybe it's time to get out of the energy trade. But what is Buffett getting into the energy trade? Signal justin right now about that it still has room to run because it's up. What it's the only sector that's up this here, Yeah, it's up.

The sector itself is up thirty percent, while Occidental is up over It's the uh biggest gainer among all SMP five components. Haliburton is the next at So that can just show you and what it What's interesting for Buffett is most people think of Buffett as a value investor. You don't think of him as chasing these huge returns. And I think with these recent purchases Monday through Wednesday, he did wait for oil came down from about one

in two about and he brought back in. But it's a small blip compared to how much it's run, So he must really think that there's, you know, still a lot of room for the stock to run, and there's still a lot of value. Meanwhile, other investors who have kind of been in this trade for a while on the reopening, you know, they were looking at from the demand side. They're saying, well, we're reopening all this and

the energy talk stocks have done so well. So when we came to the invasion of Ukraine, uh, they you know, now we have a supply issue that's exacerbating the whole thing. But I think a lot of investors are a little bit skittish and saying, well, we don't want to We've already done so well, but the dynamics have changed so much recently that there could still be a huge amount

of room to run on the upside. It's Kate Cat rather help me out here, because I'm looking at Occidental, Like you know, we just heard from Justin that I do think of Warren and Berkshire as like value plays, and yet it's been on such a tear. What's the strategy here? How does this fit into the portfolio? Well, I think you can hurt him back to his apple stock. Everyone was like, oh, you're getting an apple too late, and then now you look at the stock, it was

a really good bet. So I think we have to caution ourselves a little bit when we're like, oh, is he getting into late or has it you know, been on too much of a run. But I really think here, I mean, Buffett knows the energy business pretty well. You know, they have a huge obviously power business. But you know Greg Abel, his key deputy and his likely successor, they know this space well. They've been around Occidental for a while and Buffett and Berkshire are way more of an

industrial behemoth than they used to be. And I think he's always on the hunt for an elephant sized deal and who knows, you know, um, if he's would he buy who knows? Yeah, we we don't have any confirmation about any means, but I'm not it's a big company, and you know, I think there always on market cap and I think Buffet's always on the hunt. So I

think we shouldn't ever rule out. Yes, he has a hundred nearly a hundred fifty billion to put to work, and I think I think there's a chance that you know, he keeps going after the stock and it becomes a really good bet for him, like Apple. Obviously you know did has performed well, but but I also think he

wants to get close to some big companies. And I think about listen, we are all going back and forth every day about alternative energy fossil fuel world, right, Like we understand climate change and the push away, but we also know, right tim Lett, it's gonna be a while before you can totually fully make that pivot off a fossil fuel it is. But justin I wonder how crowded this trade is because we saw the way that oil bounced back to about a hundred dollars a barrel yesterday.

It's higher today. Um. But you know, on Quick take Stock we talk a lot about the retail investors getting into the energy stocks over the last week. And I'm and I'm wondering what your data tells you, what your reporting tells you about how crowded the trade is. Well, it's not as crowded as you might think. Bank of America reported recently that that active fund managers there are still thirty underweight the sector. And the other thing to look at this, this is really this trade is really

a trade on oil. Occidental had been hedging their oil positions up until the end of last year and they let those hedges roll off. So now if the price of oil goes up, there completely exposed. And what will happen there is that that the oil producers have less incentive to produce more. They want the price to go higher, and it will that will push the price higher in addition to uh problems of supply constraints in labor shortages.

Hey cat. In terms of Berkshire and Buffett's biggest holdings, this is not the top but number eight in terms of their common stock bets and so, and that's sizeable given that they at the end of the year one they didn't have a single common stock holding in this company. What are other energy bets? Effects absolutely say that again they didn't have any common stock of Incidental. At the end of the year, they did have it, so they had ramps. Yes, it's it's a big recent ramp up.

And he's even said publicly he really liked the CEO's last earnings call, and so I think that you know, he's signaling that it's not just an in and outplay or a simple market bet. Right now, although you know, obviously Berkshire can and might change his mind. Run by a woman, I'm just going to say that other energy bets Cat Chevron is one of the big, big common stock holdings. So yeah, so Berkshire is exposed in general to the energy market, the oil market, and then obviously

they own their own energy business. And I think to your point earlier of you know, he is really into this idea that it's going to be a long time until we really see sort of this renewable energy kind of dominance, and and Berkshire Energy is doing a lot in that space. But I think, you know, he's willing to bet on these companies that may be still very tied to oil. And you know, as we were talking about the war, I mean, you see the world rethinking

about where they're getting their energy from. And there was some headlines just about you know, the moves France is making and everybody's rethinking about it and their exposure and their vulnerability. Um, guys, thank you so much. Well they appreciate. Ketch Glensky, finance reporter at Bloomberg News, along with Justin Zach's Bloomberg News equities reporter here in the studio. Yeah, but you let me drive now, all right, pleasels, I want to drive. It's good question. Drive is the drive

to the clothes? Well Briar on Bloomberg Radio, all right, everybody, just about ten minutes left in today's trading session. You heard Charlie breaking down, uh the numbers where you see equities building on yesterday's gains. Really some out performance? Well, I guess actually as about one percent higher, as Charlie mentioned on the S and P and the Dow and the NAZAC. So let's get to it. Vance Howard is

in the house. He's portfolio manager CEO at Howard Capital Management, roughly five billion in assets under management, and he's here in our Interactive broker studio. So nice to have you here with Tim and myself. Nice to have you in studio. How are you? Thank you, Thank you so much for having me. It's it's real. Well, it's great to have you here. Um, also thrilling depending on the day. Are the market's a lot of volatility and it's interesting to

see the reaction coming off of the FED meeting. How do you see it? What's the outlook here for equities in particular? Well, you know, Carol, we're we're in a down trend, so we're our proprietary indicated. The h C on boline is still negative. So we're holding about thirty thirty five were sent in cash right now and the funds across the board, my two et s or what do you normally care held? Usually we're hundred invested in

unless the h C on biolines negative. Now the a c bolin is negative, we we pull pull money off HTN byline. H C on biolin is our proprietary trend indicator, and it tells us it doesn't fire off a signal very often. But I fired off a negative single on January nineteenth of this year, So we were pulling money away from the markets and just sitting it out and letting the market. What is it looking, it's proprietary. Can you give us a hint? What is it? Well, it's

it's just a good, solid intermediate term trend indicator. Basically, it's very, very in my opinion's best one ever built. I built it back in the nineties. We've never ever sat through a bear market in the history of Howard Capital to two thousand and to two thousand, eight hundred sit in cash. You're in the height of the pandemic.

Were Yeah, it's called capital preservation. It is I want I want to learn more about well, no, I want to learn more about it because you know, if you built this in the nine nineties, Uh, ostensibly you'd be adding different signals to it as the data gets better and you get more forces alternative data. Oh, Tim, we used to run this thing on a big chief tablet, pen and paper, and then now it's computer driven. And now we've got seven computer programmers working on a seven

trying to make it better and better and better. So you know, during the health of the pandemic, we were sixty percent in cash when the market was bottoming out. Do you know when you get back in, That's the great part what we built it is to be slow to get out, but very fast to get back in. Because what I'm trying to do, Tim, is I'm always trying to catch the curve of the turn of the market. I'm not so I can't call a topper bottom and

we're not doing that. I just want to stay in eighty five percent of the good and out of eighty five percent of the bad, and I'll have a much more smoother ride with higher return, and we are not yet. Your argument two is that we're not yet to the to buying into that curve when the market's gonna start going up again, despite the fact that this is the third day in the row of the sp rallying. Yeah, we were not there yet. No, the trends clearly down.

It's uh, you know, sometimes you get a dead cap bound. I hope the bottoms in. There's a good chance that maybe we put the bottom in February. Who knows, Maybe that's what this is. And then I was so glad just to get a rally we did, Carol, you were off that day. We called that a cat bounces, aren't it. Hey, The methodology hasn't changed, though, it's always evolving, because you know, you can't stay static. The markets are faster now than

they've ever been. You know, you're not trading against the three of us aren't trading against one another anymore. We're trading against a computer. So you're gonna have to get faster and faster. Everything we do has to have a quantitative edge to win. And and you got to be fast anymore. And you can't sit there and being the guessing game. You gotta get in the odds game like we are all right? So I mentioned, um, you've got

a bunch of fun. Your Tactical Growth fund and dividend Sector plus fund each beating just about all of its peers in its category of the past three years, putting them in the percentiles, respectively. Tactical Growth Fund returning on average annually according to our data. Dividends Sector plus fund returning on average annually. That's not too shabby. Thank you, You're welcome. So okay, so what is your um? What is it showing you now that are you putting money

to work or you're not? You still? Are you still pulling money? We don't ever buck buck the h C on bottling it's negative. We're gonna sit on our hands and sit in cash period and tell it. Tell it gives us a firm signal to go along again. But could that cash position grow? You could, Yes, if the

bottlene continues to get more negative, it would grow. And we have been as much as a hund percent in cash, like I said earlier, were cash in two thousand and eight, but during the pandemic we were only sixty percent in cash. But it felt pretty good. The day the doll was down I think twelve and we were down three, So that was a pretty good feeling. Okay, let's talk you had something. No, I just I'm trying to figure out.

So you're watching, so you're in cash, you could go into more cash, which is why when we talk about dead cat bounds. You know, we've had a lot of questions and not questions, but a lot of debate about is this how we hit the bottom? Uh? And hard to say. Did anything change in terms of your metrics or your indicator off of the FED meeting? No? No, the trainer was clearly down, still down. I would still

be sitting in thirty percent cash. It had no effect other than the fact we're getting a rally, which I'm glad to have. Well, this two day rally. I mean, does it make you say I want to put some money to work. No, not until the HC on bioline. That's part of being disciplined, and the discipline is the key to winning in this game. If you're not disciplined, you look, you're flying, you're an instrument rated, you don't care what you see in front of you. It's just

what it says, is the HC M byline? Is it binary like negative or positive, or their different degrees of it and different degrees. And that's a good point. We do have three different stages and one, so we tear out. We don't play the all or none game. The only time we've been a hunter percent in cash with two thousand and eight, and that's when when that is a quantitative, it's not more it's more fundamental. When the banks are imploding,

we're We're out. We're just out. We're not anywhere near that. Now. This is just a garden variety of correction, and it may be turned into a bear market. It may just be a nasty little correction. I'm just not that worried

about it. By the way, we had three great years, right, So here's you know, I Tim and I talk a lot off air because I know you're not supposed to time the market, but I mean, after a year like we had last year, like I feel like, yes, you could kind of time the market and pull money out, because even if you just had a great year, why not take a breather and see where this goes. Are you saying yes or now I'm saying that, I'm saying that that I don't. I'm saying I follow the h

C on byline. If it was still positive, i'd in right now, you would be yeah, But it's not, so I'm negative. But it's creating a vast amount of great bias, Carol. I mean, I'm sitting in thirty percent of cash and some of these stocks are off. Think of my gunpowder coming back here. Well, does your indicator play for individual stocks? And absolutely sectors mainly? Okay, so might you put money to work in some sectors? Yes? I would any sectors you want to share with us? Tech tech, what kind

of tech? And and and and the and the semiconductor index. We can look at all these tech stock look at you know, I would consider Salesforce Tech Company. They're I mean, they're beaten to death. Paypals looking great. Microsoft is a screen once it turns rough from its high. But don't buy until the bioline is positive, because don't find the positive. No, it's negative. It's it's negative, negative, negative. As long as

the overall bioline is positive, we won't buy. Now. Once we do have a bi signal, then we can start to pick out what we're gonna Has the byeline ever been wrong? Of course? And then you can say exactly what it is. The boeling is wrong about the time, it's right about seventy percent of the time. I can tell you what your odds are of winning. When the by lines positive, your odds are seventy three percent of

it going higher cent that it's not. When the by line is negative, your odds of it going down to negative or seventy in your odds or for reverse to So I'm not gonna take a trade when the odds on scent that is going to move higher. Because the trend of the market moves four out of five stocks the direction of the trend alright, So come back. Let us know when it goes either positive or more negative. Let me share it with you. Let me share it

with you. Look forward to it travels back home. Vance Howard, Portfolio Manager CEO at Howard Capital Management, joining us. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube. Search to Bloomberg Global News