Bank Earnings and Inside the New Fight for Equality

You can also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. So earning season, as we know kicking off with the batch of big bank earning shpmorgan Chase making more money in the fourth quarter than it ever has. It also signal more optimism about burs being able to repay their loans. The biggest US bank

posted a jump in trading and investment banking fees. Wells Fargo, meantime, posted worse than expected expenses in the fourth quarter, took some charges and more than a billion for restructuring and a few other things, some of those old account scandals, and then city groups fixed in come traders who propped

up the banks earnings throughout much of the pandemic. They missed endless estimates for the final amounts of There is a lot to get to, so let's bring in, first of all, our Michelle Davis Financial port at Bloomberg News. She covers JP Morgan specifically, and tim safe to say, as the biggest US bank, we care what's going on with them, in particular, we care what they're CEO Jamie Diamond has to say he is one of the long running CEOs on Wall Street. So Michelle, good to have

you here. First of all, cap recap for me what we got from JP Morgan, if you would so. JP Morgan's earnings were definitely the standout. They generated a record amount of revenue and profit in the fourth quarter twelve point two billion, and that capped off a year in which they made billion, which is more than any other major bank has ever earned in a year. UM. Not

more than they have ever earned in a year. They had the most profitable year in banking history in nineteen UM but still a time, especially given that we're in a pandemic. Jump and tree eating helped that. But they also released nearly three billion dollars in reserves, which is uh,

it came as a surprise. You know, analysts were expecting them to to maybe released two million, So three billion is a lot and signals that you know, they feel that they are well prepared to kind of withstand whatever is coming, and it means that maybe the outlook for for low losses isn't as bad as they were expecting or thinking earlier on. That's a lot, man, three billion,

I'm just going to say, yeah, it feels like a lot. Well, what was the commentary that we heard from the bank about uncertainty about customers being able to pay their credit card bills, about when fiscal stimulus will actually hit customers, those sorts of things. So, you know, they struck a bit more of an upbeat tone than they have in past quarters, but they did mention multiple times that you know, they're still uncertainty. There are a few things that are

are leading some of this optimism. You know, one is obviously that there's a vaccine that you know, according to CEO Jamie Diamond, could mean that you know, people are going back to work as early as a September, you know, like enforced um. And also the fact that there's you know, perhaps certainty on the change in administration and the fact that stimulus has been fast and there could be more coming. These are all things that are led to the optimism

on the consumer side. The one area of I guess uncertainty that they really called out was on the credit card side. Um. They didn't release any reserves there, and they pointed to a possibility of a payment shock coming if and when uh, you know, benefits expire. Um. But so far, you know, there haven't been any delinquencies, Like there have some delinquencies, but nothing that you'd expect from

you know, millions of people unemployed. Uh, the their net charge jobs actually went down from the crisis quarter and from from last year. So they're saying that, you know, they they could start to see losses starting in the second half of this year or even later. So well knit NT listen you know this, Michelle, We go to Jamie. We like to hear what he has to say because he's, you know, kind of one of those elder sorry Jamie elder,

but you know, in good shape from what I understand. Um, you know statesman out there that has seen a lot of crises, you know, was really you know key through the financial crisis. This is a different crisis. Fair to say, um, but we care what he has to say about the bigger, broader picture. Was he more optimistic or was he more cautious? He was definitely more optimistic. They spent a ton of time on on the analyst and the media called talking

about investments that they're going to be making. And actually, you know, their shares last time I look, we're down. And one of the reasons that you know, could have they could have been done it because they announced this big twelve point four billion investment initiative, which is it's a couple of billion more than they normally spend on, you know, new things. And and Jamie, you know, he was just talking about how they had so much capital,

more capital than they can do anything with. Yeah, they're gonna buyback stock, but also he wants to do some M and A. So he was optimistic. Yeah, I mean he said, yeah, like they're still uncertainty, and we have to get through this pandemic first. And there's gonna be a ton of questions later on about how we fix you know that the US deficit. But for now, let's get through this. And like I'm gonna do some deals

in the meantime hopefully. Right Capital Interesting stacks down about one point two percent, but let me remind everybody it's still up almost ten percent so far this year, and that's after our gain actually was down a little bit in a UM. Anton Switz is also with US president chief investment officer at Mandon Capital Visors on the phone in Florida. Anton, Good to have you here, Happy new year. Nice to have you here with Tim and myself and Michelle.

Michelle has been kind of running down JP Morgan's quarter and what Jamie Diamond had to say, What do you make of JP Morgan's results specifically? I think the numbers were pretty strong across the Ford. You know clearly the KAPA markets were great. UM reserve releases you have really become formulaic. I mean, there's there's a new accounting system that went into place UM last year called CECIL, and a lot of the reserves depend upon the modeling, and

a lot of consultants come in and model. I know Moody is much is much more optimistic. Got it, got it? Got it? Hey, Michelle, I know you're going to leave us in Anton's going to come back. UM just thirty seconds here. The key takeaway then from JP Morgan, because we're gonna still get a few more bank big bank earnings next week, just quickly. Yeah, key takeaway would be UH most profitable quarter ever UH reserve releases. There, there's optims.

You know, they're optimistic, and actually all the banks are optimistic, more optimistic than they have been. So it's probably good well for next week. All right, we'll see what I'll happen. Michelle, thank you so much. Appreciate the breakdown of a good weekend. Michelle Davis Financial report at Bloomberg News with us on the phone from Vermont. Anton Schitz is going to come back with US President and chief investment officer at MEN

and Capital Advisors. His MEN and Financial Services fun up more than nine percent so far this year, putting it in the eightie percentile at least according to Bloomberg data. He's very much into regional, so we'll get into that. Sounds good. Also, nice time with optimism. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovich from Bloomberg Radio. This story definitely caught our attention.

It's in Bloomberg Business Week magazine This week, it's about something we hear a lot from our medical guest him when it comes to COVID nineteen. We know vaccines are important, but so too is more testing. Test, test, test, That's what it's about. That's what's one of the things that's going to get us out of this pandemic exactly. And forgottence on that, just look to Minnesota. Let's get into that story. Susan Burfield, she has Projects and Investigations report

at Bloomberg News. She's reporting with Bloomberg's Michelle Cortez, who's with us on the phone from Brooklyn, and also with us is Bloomberg Business wee get it or Joe Webber on the remote access from Brooklyn as well. Joel. We're also consumed by the vaccine, getting it out, rolling it out,

but let's not forget we've got to continue testing as well. Yeah, and you undersold ay a key cell of this story, which was Minnesota, and the Minnesota part of the story is is really an interesting one because this is the state that actually had a budget surplus and was able to kind of you know, so this is in praise of fiscal responsibility. They were able to basically take that

budget and just immediately pour it into testing. And as Susan UM will tell us more about, the state has basically made it its mission to test everyone in the state. UM Man, woman child, do it relentlessly, make it free and so simple that all you have to do is spit in the tube and put it in the mail. Um, Susan,

Why isn't everyone following Minnesota's lead here? Yeah? Thanks everybody. So, you know, as you mentioned Joelic, Minnesota had a few advantages UM, it had a budget surplus, but it also did direct a lot of the money it received from the federal government to testing. Just early on made UM the decision, you know, informed both by its relationships with the Mayo Clinic UM and the University of Minnesota, great research institution, that testing was going to be crucial UM.

And you know, as the summer went on, it became obvious that it didn't just have to be you know, easy and convenient, It had to be free and wildely available, and they had to use you know, the version of testing that UM is the easiest for everybody really, which is as you mentioned that the saliva test UM. And so you know what Minnesota did is actually a UH work with UM the company that oversees the Salibery test and the lab that processes those samples to build its

own lab. And I think that was really crucial because that lab is dedicated to Minnesota residents and it can process up to thirty thousand tests a day, jeez, Louise, which you know begs the question like if if you were doing thirty those swabs, Like, I think that gets kind of kind of tiring. But the fact that it's you know, you're able to spit in the tube UM takes so much of the workout. And as I understand, the test is exactly the same effectively in terms of

its results. So so what about like why was the spit quotient so so useful in Minnesota and why why aren't more people able to use it? Yeah? So UM, yeah, so you're right, it's it's UM. It is the same test you know as nasal slobs UM that some of us have had, which are pretty uncomfortable, UM also have to be done, you know, with a medical professional right there with you. So one advantage of the saliva test, of course is that you UM can do it at home. UM.

So that means fewer medical professionals. That means less of the protective equipment is required. Um, the tests can be processed as quickly. UM. And I guess what's holding back other states from being able to do this is in part you know, the tests are more expensive, and so Minnesota decided that you know, it was going to pay for the test when it couldn't get reimbursed by insurance companies. So the state made a pretty big commitment to make

those tests in particular free to everybody. And so you know, anyone in Minnesota can sign up UM and receive a kit at home, I mean more than one UM and you know take the has to get the results um within uh, within seventy two hours. So UM. You know there's there's um only a couple of these labs around the country. UM the company and the company has been talking to other states, but UM, you know it, you know, as everyone knows, it's really every state for itself, or

at least it has been. You know, if you want a lab, you have to build it and you have to pay for it. Susan, I gotta say, I wish I had read this story like months ago, because I've done the SPIT test and it's kind kind of easy, but it's actually it wasn't so easy, kind of working up all the spit to be quite honest. And you have actually a piece of advice that or that you learned about and how to do that. That's right. The secret. The secret apparently is um to smell, not eat, because

you can't eat for thirty minutes before you take the test. Right, But if you smell pickles or even lemon, apparently that helps you produce UM more surviva than normal. And then I guess afterwards, if you consider it a treat, you could eat either of them. Who. Well, we do know that the testing is key to getting us out of this pandemic. So so where does the States stand with getting things under control? How how is the testing actually manifested when it comes to positivity rates and in the

status of of how people are faring? Yeah, so you know, Joel, Um, Joel joked but not really joking, m jokingly, you know, asked like why Minnesota, and um, you know, one of one of the reasons I think that made Minnesota up particularly compelling case study, if you will, is that, uh, you know, as we know, over the summer in the fall, most every state that surrounded Minnesota, the Dakota, Dakota is Wisconsin were having a terrible time of it, you know,

some of the worst worst case rates in the country. And so Minnesota of course is not um you know, cannot separate itself from its neighbors. UM. But when the Dakotas were the first and second basically were you know, had the highest positivity rates in the nation, UM, Minnesota's never rose above one. So, you know, as even the governor said, like it was a very effective program, UM.

But the sheer magnitude of the cases in the country, you know, of course, you know, works against any state's efforts. You know, what one state can only do so much, and yet every state has been asked to fend for itself. Well, this is where we've seen, certainly the problem, and we'll see what happens under a new administration where we start, you know, whether or not, Susan we start to see some cord coordination. This is a great deep dive into

what Minnesota is going and as Joel said, Minnesota knew. Susan. Thanks so much of a great week in Susan Burfield. She's projects and investigations are port at Bloomberg Busines this week on the phone from Brooklyn. If you got some time over the weekend, check out our book to the Hour of Fate Theodore Roosevelt, JP Morgan and the Battle to Transform American Capitalism. Jill Weber, thank you as well,

editor of Bloomberg Business Week. Bloomberg Business Week, by the way, on newsstands, online at Bloomberg dot com and also always on the Bloomberg terminal. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovy on Bloomberg Radio. So you are listening to Bloomberg Business Week Carol Master along with Tim Stanovic. Let's get right to it because with us back with us in our Friday check when

it comes to COVID nineteen. Is Dr Ian las Bader, Clinical Associate Professor Medicine at n y U Lango Medical Center. This on a day where we've seen deaths from COVID nineteen globally top two million. We've got approaching about four hundred thousand deaths in the US alone. A lot going on right now. Uh. I so good to have you here. How are you? Dooan Weill? Carol? Thanks, I head and tim Happy Friday. I did have my second shot earlier

this week, so I'm I'm certainly feeling safer. The second shot definitely hip pecs a little more punch, and some people do have a little fatigue a little aches, which I experienced, but I was able to keep working through. So we definitely want to encourage everyone to do it. And uh, there is some vaccine hesitancy, which I'm sure we'll talk about, but uh, it does feel good to get both shots, and I know a lot of people want them and are trying to figure out how to

get that. We were curious because we had a story yesterday that yu Len Going was telling its doctors it may not get new vaccines next week and that they were I think running out of supply. So that's not the case. That is exactly the case. Ye know. We had a conference call today and the conference call really illustrates the number of, you know, the issues of getting the vaccine into people's arms. One is the good news is that we can do at our multiple sites somewhere

between five and seven thousand vaccines a day. We're getting about five thousand vaccine doses per week, so really there is a big gap between what we could administer and what's being delivered from the state. I just want to get these numbers right. You're getting fewer in one week than you could actually be able to deliver in one day. That is correct, That is correct. What is the what

are you hearing about that increasing? Well, you know, we really rely on the state and as of the Friday conference call by one of our you know leaders, um, they will not know until I think Sunday night whether or not the number and when they will be delivery of vaccine for next week. So many patients are frustrated. You know, they're calling when can I come in? Uh, those are the ones without vaccine hesitancy. But a number

of patients are calling. They may have underlying littal immune disease or other issues, and they may not fit the exact criteria and they want to know can I get it sooner? Um? But we are not being booked until the vaccine is president president. So that's been the at least the ny U policy, which is you don't want to give people dates unless you really know that you

have vaccine to give them. So in part the hold up is certainly getting it from New York State, and I assume New York State is having some problem getting it delivered as well. So when does this get better? I mean, what are you telling patients and what you can tell our listeners about when these bumps could be ironed out? Well, I wish I knew, uh, you know, I I think we did not. Um, this should have

been better anticipated. Really you know this, We're we're do pretty well with the flu shot and that's really given out over several months. We do that to a hundred fifty million people. But this mass vaccination really, in my opinion, should have been handled by central authorities, the military, you know, drive through There should be vaccine that's available at you know, pharmacies.

We really should have, I think, had a better execution of not only delivery of the vaccines, but exactly you know, down to the patient, how it would be administered. So

I think we're coping as best as we can. We're trying to give it out as best as we can, but the supplies are limited, and of course, um every center, you know, the local doctor's office don't have this because at least for the visor and really for the maderna, which is are the most widely available at this point, they do need special refrigeration, much more so for viser of course, So you're literally waiting for a styrofoam box of frozen vaccine to be brought into the UH Vaccine

Center to be given out to people. Uh, it could be more efficient, Let's put it that way. Are there any hopes, any signs that you're seeing that once we get a new administration place it's just around the corner next week, that things will change. I'm just curious if if your team there at n y U and go to is hearing anything about that. You know, I think there's a lag. I think everyone wants to do the

right thing. I think a new administrat ration needs a ramp up time to kind of get a feel for exactly, you know, the distribution that's present and perhaps how it can be improved. I'm very confident that there are a number of vaccines, you know, the astra zeneca and J and J, which is one shot which will make life easier.

That a game changer potentially in I think, so you know that the data is that you really have to wait like six to eight weeks to really get full efficacy, but not having to bring people back is really that's really part of the other problem that you give people the shot and you have to get them in the computer to schedule. From maximum efficacy, you know, you need to book the second shot really at the time of

the first shot ideally. So I think that J and J will make it a lot easier to do more widespread vaccination, which I think is the only hope really bend the curve here with the you know, with the deaths and disability. I feel sad for I've had a couple of patients UM die who literally are probably just weeks away from if they were able to get the vaccine. So it's very sad, it is. And we're getting sort

of conflicting news today. Right on the one hand, we're seeing COVID hospitalizations drop in in thirties six states, But at the same time we're hearing this new report UM from the CDC about a faster spreading variant that could overwhelm the US just like it has in the UK. How do you sort of bring those two things together? So all viruses mutate is sort of selection pressure, and UM viruses do better the easier they spread UM and

the less lethal they are is typically what happens. So UM so The bad news is it it spreads more easily. It appears that it's less lethal or comparably lethal. But I think the vaccines, because they're polyclonal, meaning multiple antibodies to the spike protein, I do think the vaccines will be very helpful in reducing all of the variants we've seen so far. So I think that's encouraging. I think we can expect further mutation. Will really have to see. Hopefully.

What won't happen is that the virus will mutate so sufficiently, say by next fall, that the vaccines will become ineffective. That would really be terrible because then you need another mass vaccination program. I don't think that's going to happen. You don't, how come no really quickly, because that spike protein is really how the virus attaches to ourselves. Uh, that is preserved, and the antibodies hit various parts of it. So I think even if one part mutates, probably the

antibodies will work on the other part. All right, here's such a gem. Alright, Ian, have a good weekend. Dr Ian last bid Our, Clinical Associate Professor Medicine at n y U Landgown Medical Center. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic from Bloomberg Radio. Well, this story's headlined, Tim says it all the Fed wakes up to race. The mighty Federal Reserve wants to level the playing field. Is it up to

the task. That's the big question. It is a big question, and it's really topical. So let's get into this story. Uh, it's a deep dive by Bloomberg's top notch economic team. Bloomberg News Federal Reserve and economics reporter Katarina Surviva is with us. She's on the phone in Houston. Katarina, Um, this is a must read for everyone, So I highly recommend people go to Bloomberg dot com or pick it up on the Bloomberg terminal. Tell us what you guys

set out to do? Yeah, thank you. Um. So, I mean, we really felt like was kind of a civital year for the said. I mean in terms of, um, people's awareness of wealth and equality and just the racial disparities in our economy. It really was a pivotal year for all of us. I think it's fair to say, but um, the said, uh, you know, really started being quite vocal about this. We saw quite a few said presidents coming out to talk about it. Indeed, Share Powell talk to

about it UM several times throughout the year. And then of course they had this big change to their UH, to their policy strategy. UM, so they are now really focusing on UM, you know, making sure uh they're correcting for employment shortfalls. And it was just kind of like a much bigger expansion of how they look at UM

their one of their goals, which is maximum employment. So we wanted to really you know, take a look at that and kind of kind of do a big, you know, big step back look at what this year meant for the Federal Reserve. I'm really glad you brought up the dual mandate already, right, this idea of maximum employment and stable prices, and the maximum employment element of this, What

is the power that the FED actually has. What are the tools that FED has at their disposal to sort of target monetary policy in a way that that can affect the racial disparities? Yeah, So, I mean, you know, I think lot of people in the past have argued that the sens tools are blunt UM in this case, and and to you know, in some cases they are.

Of course, they can't um do things that Congress can, like with actual fiscal policy, right like targeted programs, But they can, um you know, they can adjust their interest rates and and decide when they're going to do that.

So you know, one of the big lessons kind of that they will tell you that they learned from the last five years is that if they keep interest rates low for long and let the economy you know what they call run hot, which means that they let the unemployment rate get a lot lower than they previously thought would be good for the economy, that brings a lot of marginalized workers into the labor market and that really helps people that in the past were excluded from full employment.

Based on some of the comments that that is made, and particularly J Powell, how is he of balancing this? As we know, the Fed always tries to be like, you know, a political or you know, and stay out of politics. So what are we hearing from J Powell and team? Yeah? I mean I think you know, um, we certainly saw Janet Yellen when she was FED chair um talk a bit about inequality on this was you know, five six years ago, and she got criticized for it.

I mean by politicians. She got called out by leaders in Congress for being you know, getting into a political debate. Um. But I really think that they now feel that this isn't really political anymore, or rather it's you know, perhaps bipartisan. Right, It's something that we can all agree on is a problem in our economy, you know, in equality along racial lines, um, and is something that you know, talking about that shouldn't

be seen as political. It's it's part of their economic mandate. Well, and I do wonder ify having I largely white fed um, you know, at various levels too, but obviously at the top positions, and it's not completely but you know, you just don't have diverse views there or diversity of thought and how that might hold it back. Yeah, exactly, And this continues to be a problem, especially at the top levels and especially within their economists cohort um. It is

not very diverse. I think only about a quarter of the economists are women and only a quarter are um people of color. Um. So they definitely have a lot of ground to make up there, um And And yeah, I mean that can contribute to you know what economists like the called group think, right, Like it's this kind of creates this echo chamber where you don't take into account um, different views and you are more likely to kind of UM have blinders on. And you know, I

think we've seen evidence of this. UM. We we have. You know, we talked to um Seth Carpenter, who's an economist at UBS. He was at the Fete for many years and he is black, and he talked about his experience with this. You know, he in the early two thousands who was looking at how defense policies impacted different race groups and UM, you know, he found that there

were disparate impacts on unemployment. UM. And he you know, as he told us, like no one would really showed much interest except for Roger Ferguson, who was at the time the only um set black governor at the at a board of governors. So you know, you you see kind of the limitations that this imposes. So we only have about fifteen seconds left. But the question that you ask in this piece is is the FED up to

the task? Based on your reporting? Can they pull it off? Well, I mean the proof will be in the pudding, right, We'll have to see what happened. I think it is far too early to say that we have any victories, but um, we'll see. It's safe to say it seems like gets more on their radar than ever before, which sometimes is the first big step, right, Yeah, I mean

the recognition of it is a big deal. Yeah. Katerina Survivah, she has Federal Reserve and economics reporter at Bloomberg News on the phone from Houston, and you can find her story at Bloomberg dot com if you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Karl Master along with Tim Stanovich at Bloomberg Quick Take, my co host in our interactive broker studio. We do have about nineteen minutes left at today's trading session.

We do want to bring in j. J. Kinahan's chief market strategist over at t D and Marriage Trade, joining us once again on the phone from Chicago. JJ, nice to have you back with us. We're a little I'm definitely exhausted. Tim's doing really great, but I'm like off my game. It's just been you know, it's already been a one. Um, how do you see it? First of all, take me back to last week. Where were you when

everything was unfolding? And how do you see it? How does it make you kind of think about what might be to come this year. You know, last week obviously was a black eye for the nation. Um it's and any impeachment proceedings, etcetera. It's just it's just bad for the country in general. Hopefully with next weekend going forward

forward from there, we you know, come together. I think sometimes people forget that almost half the country voted for the losing candidates, so hopefully what you know, you let's put it this way. There are crazy people everywhere, but unfortunately most people are very centrist and very reasonable people. Unfortunately, the reasonable people aren't as exciting stories the crazy people. So crazy people tend to make the news. Well wait a minute, well they had to make I was just

gonna say they had to make the news last week. Wrong, they had to. It's not a criticism of covering that, of course, I'm just saying in general, you know, and really it's not a statement against I didn't mean that maybe as it came off. All I'm saying is I think most of us are reasonable people. Win or lose, you you know, it is what it is, and your

march on and you figure a way to go forward. Unfortunately, throughout the last you know, a few years, and because of social media, I think often crazy people are hugging the news cycle. How and and thank you, But and what I will say to your point is that and we Tim and I have talked about this a lot, is that we had a great story on and I keep going back to it on the terminal about the

Capital rioter. You know, one of our reporters talked to one of them who went there, you know, in you know, in supportive Donald Trump, just planned to protest and then all of a sudden was in the capital, you know, and kind of understanding his story. And I do think it is important, as you said, a lot of Americans voted for the current president, to kind of understand what is on the minds of these voters, and even those that got pretty angry and stormed the capital, to understand

what's on their minds because they're Americans too. We've got to kind of understand where that anger is coming from, or where maybe that displacement is coming from. There. Yeah, I think you said it much more eloquently than I think. The good news is if you look at what's going on in the market, not only with that, but with COVID, with everything the way things are being priced as we are looking forward and out, you know, a few months past some of the problems. So uh yeah, we're you know,

we're selling off a bit today. We've come back, of course, quite a bit from the lows, and I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that we are heading into this three day weekend where we come out of it to Inauguration Day, and we've all seen the warnings about capitol buildings around you know, in every state, so not necessarily a big surprise that after this nice grown up people are like, why don't I think maybe some profits or take some risk off the

table as we head into or buy some risk through options or whatever as we head into this weekend. So today's trading cycle makes a little bit of sense to see that we did bounce off the lows pretty well, just for those reasons that it's not an overwhelming sense of fear, if you will, and I think certainly as reflected in the mix, you're not seeing a crazy amount

of fear out there either. Well, I should I should note that we are awaiting President elect Biden, who is planning to deliver marks soon on his plan to deliver COVID nineteen vaccines will bring those to you live when we get them. But I'm wondering if you think back to last night about the one point nine trillion dollar stimulus plan that Biden unveiled and the details that that we got, Um, what do you make of it and how it could affect the trade? Yeah, you know, it's interesting, Tim.

I understand why rates are a little bit lower today, obviously because when we're down, people go towards fixed income. But what I'm watching uh is going to be when when that money is money starts to continue to hit the system. At some point, you would think there would be some inflation. And so I'm not saying it's happening tomorrow, and you know you have to hide that, hide behind that or anything like that. It was interesting that Mr Kashtarian today came out and said no inflation. You know,

I don't see it much more than two percent. But I do think that with so much money in the system would certainly lead you to believe that that Russure is going to happen more and more. Maybe it will take until the second half of the year when things are back. And I'm using air quotes when I say this to normal in terms of people, you know, traveling people back at their offices and having an opportunity to go out and spend money a little bit more than we do is in many states. I know New York

is similar to Illinois. We're still in a state of lockdown. So even your opportunity to go out and spend money is a little bit well, and I don't know, JJ, do you have any clues from what we got from the big banks so far? Well's far ago City and JP Morgan in terms of especially Jamie Diamond talked a lot about kind of bigger macro issues, but did you get any kind of clue about maybe where we are in the economy, the outlook, and how the rest of

the year mate might play out. I thought Mr Diamond said, actually is kind of what the market wanted to hear, even though you know, those banks have had a little bit of a tougher day and that the next few months continue to look rocky, but much more optimistic as we get to the second half of the year. And I think that that's been a viewpoint, uh many of us have had. And you know, as we just got done talking about the logistics around the vaccines, is still

I think something that's a bit more concerning. We all know we're a little bit behind plan etcetera. So that's I think where the volatility continues, because if we don't continue to get people vacimated, Uh, it just prolongs our opportunity to get back on a more normalized schedule. Which so interesting that you say that, because we did get sort of a slew of bad news this this afternoon and we didn't see a major action in the markets as a result of that. UM, we learned that New

York City is close to running out of vaccine. We learned that two million people globally had had died from this UM. What is it going to take for a headline to actually move markets when it comes to COVID, Well, I think that there's still so much hope that the vaccine is going to be good that maybe people are looking at it as a little bit of a blip in the road, if you will time I agree on and I hope that's the case. Yeah, I hope so too.

I was surprised that we didn't get that. But at the other end of it is you look around where you're gonna put your money right now, it's still the best place in town, so to speak. There's nothing else that's really competing with the security and particularly the returns we've seen over the last seven eight weeks. It's been outstanding, and you know, in some ways you scratch your head,

like how can we possibly be going up today? But the fact of the matter is there is lot of money still coming after these stocks because they're just an't

many great alternatives right now. Hey, so I think and refresh my memory, but I think you've liked Maderna in the past, and I'm just curious if so, if that's still the case, or are you starting to look at something like a J and J, which you know, if it's a one shot vaccine that could be a game change, as we heard from Dr Ian lost paid or earlier over at n y U land Gown. UM, that could be a game changer in terms of demand for vaccines and kind of making the whole process easier. How do

you see that? Is there a play there? Well? I think that, you know, if I had to look at those one versus the other. The one thing I think that gives Johnson Johnson a little bit more of an advantage is this um. If something happens with the MODERNA vaccine, etcetera. Or if for some you know, God forbid reason, we've realized over time things aren't as successful, or logistics take longer. Johnson and Johnson has a whole lot of other products

that still give revenue. And I just think that if you look at again MODERNA maybe at a shorter time frame. If you have that, you want to take a little bit more of a shop. But I think if you're a longer term investor, you know Johnson and Johnson just because it J J. We need to run. Have a good weekend. J J. Kinnahan. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg

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