You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Krol Messer and Tim Stenebek on Bloomberg Radio. We features Matt soaring as much as nine percent in Chicago as Russia issued a warning on the safety of new vessels headed to Ukrainian ports. The Russian War in Ukraine now and its second year, continues to upend and devastate the lives of so many,
sometimes ritles of the financial markets, testing geopolitical relationships. But first and format most, you think of the lives that are lost and just the devastation in that country.
I just can't imagine having a foreign power invade you in your country and destroy everything around you, killing friends and family or even you, and this has happened to them on numerous occasions. I think of the people.
First, right exactly. We have a guest with us who spent time on the ground in Ukraine reported on events over the past decade that have really shaped that country. Joining us is Christopher Miller, Financial Times correspondent. He's got a new book out.
It's called The War.
Came to Us, Life and Death in Ukraine. He is with us on Zoom from Kiv, Ukraine, and we know it's a little bit later there, So thank you so much for staying up and joining us. Talk to us first of all about your history connection to Ukraine, because I think it goes back. I think more than thirteen years, fourteen years. You actually worked for the Peace Corps.
Yeah, that's right. Actually it's been just about thirteen and a half years now. I first arrived in Ukraine in spring of twenty ten, which was a very different a very different country at that at that moment in time, this was peacetime Ukraine. You know, it had its issues, and if you recall the president that was ousted by the Euromidon Revolution in twenty fourteen, he had just come into office two months before I arrived, so it was still a challenging time, but this was pre war time.
I spent two years living in the eastern Ukrainian city of Artielmosk, which now is called Bakhmu, and many of your viewers will probably recognize it as more recently the site of the grueling ten month long battle that ended in May with the city completely raised to the ground. And so you know, that was something that was I was reporting on very closely and watching very closely because I had a lot of friends living there. It was a place that I essentially taken as my second home.
And yeah, so it's been more than thirteen years here.
And I mean, just tell us what it means to you, because you're still there. You've spent a lot of your career covering events in Ukraine, the people of Ukraine, the culture of the economy. You know, how did it touch you, How did it affect you?
Yeah, I mean, you know, I've been here for such a long period of time because I really do have a deep connection to this place. You know, I would go so far to say that this is it's become an adopted home in a way. I've made a lot of very close friends. I've seen them grow up, get married, fall in love, have children, and in some cases go off to war and even to sacrifice their lives for
their country. You know, I've seen, as you mentioned, this place change politically, economically obviously, moved from peacetime into wartime. And in this book, you know that all of that is captured, but it's told through the stories of the many, many incredible Ukrainians that I've met along the way, and through the experiences that I've been lucky enough to have over the course of my time here.
So how to take us to where you were when the war broke out February twenty fourth, twenty twenty two.
Where were you? Yeah, I was actually in a hotel in eastern Ukraine and the city of Krematorsk. If you recall Vladimir Putin's speech just a few hours before the invasion, or maybe even a shorter period of time, actually, he had said that this quote unquote special military operation was going to focus on capturing the eastern Ukrainian regions of
Danetsk and Lugansk, which he deemed to be Russian. And so with that in mind, even days prior, thinking that Putin's war would likely focus on the east, where a lot of the fighting had taken place for the previous eight years. At that time, because the war began in twenty fourteen and went on for years in that region, I thought that this would be a war on a much greater scale, but that it still would be focused largely on the east and likely the south of Ukraine.
You know, I didn't. It was really difficult at that moment to believe that the Russians would try their hand at the sort of blitzkrieg that they did end up conducting in an attempt to try to take kav So.
Early that morning, I was lying wide awake on my bed in my hotel in eastern Ukraine when a series of missiles exploded just two thousand feet away at the Krematorsk airfield, knocking out logistical equipment there and damaging the airfield and shaking me and several other journalists in this hotel awake, and we quick quickly ran down to the bomb shelter until we could figure out what was going on.
There were a lot of Russian and Ukrainian jets flying in the air, missiles overhead, and it was chaos and a lot of uncertainty.
Talk to us about Putin's motivation, and he of course had already annex Crimea in twenty fourteen. What are his claims as to why you know he's doing this? Is that there are so many Russians in the area. I know he's also claimed that they're neo Nazis. I mean, some of those things may be more credible than others.
What's your view, right, Well, does make a lot of claims, and very few of them are grounded in fact and truth. You know, he does not view Ukraine as a real country. He has said that time and time again, and I think he has also pushed this message and so have his propagandists in Russian state media, that Ukrainians are not a real people, that essentially they are Russians who have lost their way. And so what he's trying to do, essentially is eradicate this country and its people, to bring
this place into Russia's fold. He has already in according out well under Russian law quote unquote annexed for regions of Ukraine where his troops are currently entrenched and occupying. You know, obviously the international community does not recognize this annexation, nor the annexation of Crimea, which happened back in twenty fourteen.
But his ultimate goal really is to destroy this country, to take it over to uh you know, bend it to its to to his will and and and to keep it essentially as this buffer state that I think much of the Soviet leadership and even post Soviet leadership has seen as a way to keep NATO and the West further from Moscow.
You know, the title of your book, Chris, is the war came to us? Is it a Is it a war that you think could have been avoided. And if so, how.
That's a really difficult question. You know. In some ways, I think, perhaps you know, that all wars could be avoided, but you know, in this, in this particular case, I do think that, like I said, the claims that of Vladimir Putin has made about NATO encroachment, for example, you know, are just flat out not true. And this seems more like a personal mission of his. You know, he is
a small man trying to do big things. You know, he is trying to restore what he believes is Russia's greatness and to restore it to the great power that he believed the Soviet Union to be. He said time and time again that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a major catastrophe. So I'm not sure actually if
this war could have been avoided. But I think there are things that could have been done along the way, particularly by our leaders in the West and in the United States, that could have perhaps dissuaded Vladimir Raputin from launching this full scale war after his annexation of Primea and the war in twenty fourteen and the dawn Boss.
I want to get back to our guest we're talking with Christopher Miller, Financial Times correspondent. His new book out the War came to Us, Life and Death in Ukraine. He's been living in Ukraine and reporting on it for more than a decade. He's still with us on Zoom in Kiev, Ukraine. And you know, Matt and I were talking about kind of past history that kind of got us to exactly.
I mean, when when Carol asked Chris if this war could have been avoided? I immediately started thinking about the appeasement that we saw after the annexation of Crimea. You know, the US didn't do anything about it. The Germans not only did nothing about it, but continued to buy Russian gas, you know, in effect funding Putin's escapades, if I can
use such a lighthearted term. Are you worried that the international community doesn't isn't going to have the resolve that the Ukrainian people do, that they're not going to be able to stick together because we still Russia's oil and gas. We still find ways of buying it even though we sanction.
Them, right, Yeah, I think you know, I do have some concern there, and that concern is rooted in what you pointed out, which was a lack of response in twenty fourteen. You could even go back further and say that the West really didn't learn the lesson after Russia's two thousand and eight invasion of Georgia. You know, this war in Ukraine has been grinding on now for more
than nine years. Is certainly a big concern on the part of Ukrainians here and its leadership, President Voldemo mad Zelenski, is that there will be a Ukraine fatigue that sets in, and that the incredible support that Ukraine has been getting in terms of military equipment, financial support over the past year and a half since the full scale invasion began, could start winding down, particularly if Ukraine is unsick ccessful in its counter offensive that's happening right now in the
east and the south of the country. Ukraine's been having less success than it had hoped so far. It's going a lot more slowly than many people had anticipated. That is largely because Russian defenses are really, really strong. They've had a long time to dig in and you know, certainly with President Zelenski making these these now several trips abroad, you know, even beginning last December with his visit to Washington, later to London, and then more recently several capitals here
in Europe and then the NATO summit. This really is, you know, his diplomatic efforts to keep Western allies focused on the conflict and to ensure long term, long term support.
Christopher, what I wonder though, if Russia is successful and wins this war. Feels like there's no winner in war.
I can't imagine how that would even happen. But if it.
Does, I mean, or is it a point where NATO allies cannot let him win? Because I do wonder, then what's next?
Right, there's absolutely a concern that if Russia is successful in Ukraine, and I think we can argue about what certainly success might look like after losing tens of thousands of people, you know, seeing your military decimated. But let's just say, let's just say things don't turn out well for the Ukrainians, Russia, you know, manages some type of military victory here, then you know that certainly could embolden China,
for example. It could also lead Russia to rebuild its military over the next few years and perhaps look at for example, you know, some people believe that Putin would like to invade the Baltics. You know, there there's a lot that that could happen. But right now, what's what's uh, you know that that that victory or victory for any side right now is a lot less clear. It's it's
very much at the moment a war of attrition. The two sides really just duking it out on the battlefield, you know, each side trying to gain the upper hand. The Ukrainian really banking on Western support to to help them gain that upper hand, and hoping that this counter offensive is successful in resting back enough territory that perhaps in the months to come they could force the Russians to the negotiating table and have the momentum when they do so.
Chris, it looks to us, I think, yes, fair to say like the Ukrainians have done very well as Wagner h falls out of the picture right as Progotion, you know, took his toys and marched up to Moscow. Uh, it looked like a very weak time for Putin and without the Wagner group, the Russian are seems bungling. Is that the right view of it?
Yeah? More or less, you know, the Wagner mercenary group has been one of the only Russian units and an irregular one that has had offensive success on the battlefield. Here, you'll recall that the regular Russian Army hasn't really had a battlefield victory or the capture of a Ukrainian significant Ukrainian city in more than a year now, and Wagner was the group that led the Russian offensive in bak Mout, eventually capturing that city but completely destroying it and raising
it to the ground in order to do so. With them off the battlefield, Yes, there is some concern that, at least on the Russian side right that they may struggle in future offensive action. That said, and they've had a long time to train up new troops. They are really well dug in in the south and the east of the country, and they're giving the Ukrainians in their counter offensive all kinds of trouble. So right now this really is Ukraine's moment foreign offensive. The Russians are playing defense,
but because of Ukraine's so far lack of success. But there's still a lot of time and Ukraine has reserves to get success. Yeah, you know, right now Wagner has had a minor impact, but we'll see.
Forgive me for jumping in because we're running out of time. Just got about thirty seconds. You're on the ground, you know this country, You've seen a lot, and like you said, it's not just the last year and a half where troubles were brewing. We've obviously it's been happening for a while. In terms of Ukraine, thirty seconds, what can you just quickly tell us about what maybe we're not we're missing from the headlines, or we need to keep kind of front and center really quickly.
I think I think it's the just it's important to keep Ukraine in the headlines, to keep talking about Ukraine the support that Ukraine needs, you know, right now, the Ukrainian's big concerns is that attention will wane and that a lot of America will focus this attention on its
elections and domestic issues, which of course are important. But the Ukrainians will tell you this is a fight for their freedom and independence, something that should resonate with Americans and that it's important for American support to continue.
Well, so appreciate your time, and I know it's late there, but thank you again. Christopher Miller Financial Times corresponded his new book, The War Came to us life and death in Ukraine, joining us there from Kiev. This is Bloomberg