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This is Bloomberg Business. Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.
And now we want to get to the micro and in particular one name in the equity world that we are focusing on big time.
Yeah, Pfizer shares rallying right now, higher by two point five percent on a day when the rest of the market is lower. It's up the most in more than five months. The stock we should know it though just a little changed this year. According to a person familiar with the matter. Activist investors Starboard Value has taken a stake of about one billion dollars in Pfizer and it's seeking to spur a turnaround of the pharma giant. This is according to a person Carol familiar with the matter.
All right, so let's get to it. Let's get more, because it does seem like COVID has certainly affected this company and they're trying to figure out what's next for them. Bloomberg News Health reporter Madison Muller back in our studio, Good to have you here. Pfizer, like one of the darlings right during covid is, Did they really think that the COVID vaccine was going to be there keep them going and going for years to come, Like, is that what this is about?
I think.
I do think that a lot of people thought during the pandemic that there was going to be a longer tail to COVID, and Pfeiser has certainly said that, like that, the demand has declined a lot more rapidly for the vaccine and their treatment than they anticipated. But that being said, I mean in the farmer world, CEOs are always looking to what's next, Like that is not something that's new, that's the minute you have a blockbuster. We talked about Lily all the time on the show, Like they are
already thinking about and looking at what's next. They are so not settled on obesity. They want to be prepared for the future. So that's something that all pharma CEOs should be and are talking about frequently. So to say that they didn't know that this was going to happen is kind of you know, naive.
But we should go back and understand how big of a boost tran Advisor's top and bottom lines the COVID vaccine was. In your piece, you said that the vaccine had treatment more than doubled revenue to one hundred billion dollars in twenty twenty two from forty two billion back in twenty twenty.
That's a boost.
That's a huge boosts, right, huge boosts. And you know, it's not like they haven't been trying to prepare for what's next. The CEO, Albert Borla, has done a number of deals in recent years. They're trying to replenish their pipeline. But I think, I mean, this is the problem, is that investors are not happy with the deals that they've done so far. It has not replenished those revenues quickly enough.
And they did this enormous siege in deal last year forty three billion dollars, and that you know, that has given them a stable of good cancer drugs, potential blockbusters. However, again it's not happening quickly enough. They are not reaping the rewards of that quickly enough and as fast as investors had hoped.
What do you think, you know, I had a brother who worked in the pharmaceutical industry for a long time, and we always talked about this. He's like, listen, R and D. We spend a lot. You know, this is why they charge a lot, because they put a lot of drugs out and maybe one will be a blockbuster, but a lot of times they're not. You understand this world. So again, is it just this is the business and they're in a lull or is there something a little bit more complicated going on at Peiser?
Yeah, I mean I think that that's one of the things that we're thinking Starboards sort of like getting involved to figure out are these bad deals? Is it just bad luck? I mean, like you said, bad luck in pharma is is a huge part of it. We've talked about that again with Lily like they kind of ignored obesity for a number of years, thinking it wasn't going to be a big thing, and then it came back into style so to speak, within pharma, and that just
is kind of what happens. There's like these ebbs and flows of people not being interested in neuro and then they are interested in neuro again, and then there's because there's like one breakthrough and one company that does really well and has a really successful drug and then everyone else sort of rushes into it.
So it's I mean, I guess.
It remains to be seen what's gonna happen with Pfizer, And we're still trying to get more details about you know what this what Starboard is looking at.
But they've got a form Pfizer CEO helping them, right, yes, Yeah, it's kind of interesting to me Formerfesser CEO, and I've talked about knowing the fide right, yeah, what do you what what do you make of that? And what do you how are you guys thinking about that?
I mean, these people know the business obviously, and to
have I mean, it's interesting. We were looking at some of the other healthcare you know, the things that that Starboard has gotten involved in healthcare, so we have they got involved with Bristol Myers, they got involved with Magell and Humana, and we were kind of like looking at their track record a little bit, and you know, it could help having the former CEO CFO of the company sort of on board, but we just don't know what capacity they would be serving in or involved in going forward.
I don't remember the last time you were on our program, not talking about g LP one.
We're not.
It's like we had an altered universe.
Alter universe, because that's part of the Pfizer it is. Yeah, it's a big part of the Pfiser story. When we talk about g LP ones, we talk about uh products from companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. What's the status of what Pfizer has been trying to develop when it comes to GLP once.
So, Pfizer has been trying to develop a pill, and like we've talked about that is likely to be the next big thing in obesity, but they their efforts have not gone so well so far. They had one pill that they just had to discontinue entirely, another one twice daily pill. The rates of side effects were really high in trials, so they discontinued those trials and now they're
going forward with a once daily formulation. But you know, the analysts that I've spoken to are like, we don't know if this is going to be a competitive product. I mean, they still need to see more data, but so far what they've seen is like there are so many other companies like we know that are developing pills for obesity now, and how does pfizers stack up to those.
I don't really know, but you know, Albert Borlat at one point was really talking up what the company was doing in obesity and that was maybe one of the next prospects for it, and so far that hasn't gone according to plan.
So I don't know. So do we know starboards endgame here or we don't.
We're That's what we're still trying to figure out. If anyone knows, you're free to email me.
Because what's a turnaround? Look, I mean, do they have stuff to sell or you know what I mean? Yeah? Or is it just I mean they've sold off stuff.
Yeah.
And it's interesting because I mean, they have this huge cancer business now and then they have all these other products, like they have vaccine, migraine drugs, so it is that is One of the things also that we've heard is that they're like em and a strategy hasn't been super focused.
It's like just kind of.
All over the place. And they're their big focus now is on cancer. But leading up to that siege and purchase was just like a couple of other deals that sort of unclear.
Put the COVID shot just at the end of the interview, back into perspective for U, should investors think about this as like a footnote or any other sort.
Of that you're going to ask her? Should I get a COVID shot?
No, with my questions about that debate, I mean.
It is the season flu shots. Everyone's getting them down.
But investors think about that very briefly.
I mean that's a good question.
I think, like, I guess, it's unclear, like every every season, the demand sort of. I mean, we thought maybe there would be more demand as we moved back to like seasonal in the fall. People don't have that maybe animosity towards like the COVID shots after having to get so many in a row. But I just the demand is not there. People are very wary and I don't know, I.
Think of getting all kinds of shots or so.
If you get COVID, then I'm like, I'm gonna get COVID.
Yeah, three weeks for the shot to kick.
I know, I know, Well, then you have immunity if you're going to expose Medisin Muller. Thank you so much.
This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen on Apple car play and then Brout Auto with a Bloomberg business act or want us live on YouTube.
It's that time, Carol, for earnings, for earnings. It's also that time for the season booky decorations. I don't know if you if you saw this over the weekend where you live, Carol, but kind of everybody was out coming up the cobwebs, yes, accidentally dropping things off the roof. If they were trying to like spread things out. That happened to mind.
I'm always opening up like windows and I'm like tucking in the cobweb and like quick slamming the window.
To like hold it.
Yeah, it's a little crazy, Okay, it's messy.
Spiders, webs, witches, pumpkins.
What about the skeletons ginormous, I believe you have to say Halloween skeletons. They're on front lawns. In the case of all of us who are in urban neighborhoods. I mean they are on so many in front of so many homes in my neighborhood, through on the front stoops or like right next to them. Wall Street journals out with a great story in fact and how these are jangling the nerves of neighbors, causing homeowners associations to not
leave them up past Halloween. Basically apparently some leave them up, put a red cap on, carry them through Christmas top hat. For like I said before years, where.
Are you going to store them? The giant skeletons, where are you going.
To keep them?
And they're giant, they're massive all right. In all, some eleven point six billion will be spent on Halloween, according to the National Retail Federation. We wanted to take a dive into what's going on in retail.
Yeah, back with us for thoughts on the Halloween shopping season, also the upcoming retail season. Back with this is Katie Thomas. She's lead at the Carney Consumer Institute. It's an internal think take of global management consulting from Carney. They analyze consumer behavior, they do decision making, tell businesses address consumer needs. She joins us once again from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. I'll be before we talk about what's happening in the next few months,
Let's talk about the impact of these storms. Milton in Florida. People are preparing for this to hit in the coming days. I'm wondering and especially people still over the last week and now cleaning up from Helene just in recent days. What effect is that going to have on the consumer outlook this season?
Yeah, I mean, I think you definitely see consumers responding. What tends to happen sometimes, tim with these big news stories is you see these little dips in spend as people are sort of drawn to their TV and they're just not thinking about, you know, going out doing some of that shopping.
It tends to be.
More around the bigger purchases where the uncertainty is not driving spend. But one thing that's hard to say is really how much you'll see it across the country versus just small regional impacts, because in general, we've found that Halloween decorating has provided actually some certainty in uncertain times, and a lot of consumers have embraced exactly what you're describing, the decor, the candy, some of the trade around the holiday.
But you know, you certainly see some of these natural disasters really weighing on consumers, especially those impacted.
In general, Like prior to the storm, how are consumers feeling, you know, right now in.
The US, you're seeing that continued sort of mismatch between how consumers say they're feeling and what the numbers actually say. So consumers still continue to voice to us that they're fairly stressed, but that stress is also stayed stable. We haven't seen it go up and up in stress. We've seen a little bit of an uptick and concerns around the cost of living, but for the most part, they're
embracing where we are. And I think, in particular, once we get through the election, we expect even more stability for the US consumer because that uncertainty that can restrict a little bit of spending will then.
Go away regardless of who wins the election.
Yeah, honestly regardless, because it's just living in that waiting game.
I mean, that's what we saw all through.
COVID, right we were really dealing with the anxiety of consumers of like not knowing what's going to happen next. So I actually anticipate a solid holiday season because people do like to spend the holidays and will be through some of that frustration and uncertainty that is distracting all of us right now.
And that's another thing.
Halloween is a welcome distraction from living.
As someone who lives in a swing state.
I can't tell you how many texts I get in any given day, so I'll take all the skeletons.
I can get.
Yeah, it's interesting.
Hey, do things like.
Amazon Prime Day kicking off tomorrow two days like we were.
Kind of Prime days.
We were laughing in the newsroom a little bit like, wait, do they do this twice a year now.
Over the summers multiple days as well? Yeah, I don't know if it's Prime Day anymore?
Does this really move the needle?
Well, this is really you know, what we're seeing is a kickoff to the holiday season. So this is another carryover both with Halloween and with the winter holiday seasons that we've seen from the pandemic, which is longer season. So Halloween used to be a little bit more concentrated in the mind of October. Now you're seeing Halloween decor or go out in stores in August. People are decorating
in September of really leaning into it. It's similarly like this is a bit of a kickoff to the holiday season. Now some people of their organized start to pick up stuff now during these deal days, but we still hear from a lot of consumers that they're really not ready until it's a lot closer to the actual holidays.
Can I just tell you this Wall Street Journal story which gets into these giant skeletons on the giant skeleton.
I am.
I'm obsessed ever since Lisa Matteo mentioned it on surveillance this morning, I can't let go home. Depots twelve foot Skelley has sold that every year since it clanked onto the Halloween Day coursene in twenty twenty. Retailer sells the two hundred and ninety nine dollars Skelly earlier and earlier, with limited online sales this year starting in April. It limits how many shoppers can buy, allowing only one at a time to deter reselling. Again, this is in the
Wall Street Journal. I mean, they just like, all of a sudden, we're nowhere, and now they're everywhere. And I know in my neighborhood, like I said, we all have like twelve feet maybe in front a little bit like not much frontage, and they're there.
I kind of thought this was like a pandemic thing. Yeah, And then it turns out the pandemic followed twenty twenty and then and that was sort of the consumer spending, right, Nobody was doing anything, right, So they were buying stuff, they were buying couches, they were buying stuff for their homes, They're buying you know, twelve skelekeletons.
But it's continued, Yeah, which is kind of interesting. Well, and to that, I mean, you know, I guess what do you watch most? We know how important consumer spending is, certainly to the US economy. We've been focused on the job market, right, we just got a strong report. So when it comes to factors and things, you guys are think tank, right, you analyze, you have clients, you have to advise on what consumers are doing. Is it the
jobs market that you watch most closely? What is if there's one factor that you watch, what is it?
Yeah, So I think you're right, Carol, But what I would say, so, we're actually getting ready to launch the latest version of our consumer Sentiment intex.
It's called the Consumer Stress.
Index, And when we watch is actually the consumer version of the job market, which is personal job security. So sometimes, as we know, with jobs, it's not always a perfect tie out to the jobs that are available and the people that are looking, and just in general how safe people feel in their jobs.
So we've seen a slight.
Uptick in the last six months of people's personal job in security, so being a little bit more nervous. If I were to lose a job, it would be harder to find a new job. But it's also small, so I think that no red flags here yet. But something that's on the mind of consumers is that labor market. You know, it's a little bit hard to read, I think on an individual basis.
All right, we're gonna leave it on that note. Listen, Hey, thank you so much, so appreciate it. Katie Thomas, lead at the Carney Consumer Institute, joining us from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon on Alexa from our flagship New York station, jo Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty Ran.
Crew SORTD eighty dollars a barrel, its highest price. Going back to August, mounting tensions in the Middle East, raising speculation Carol that Israel may attack Iran's oil infrastructure.
There's so many headlines I've got to be honest with you when it comes to energy to meat higher.
Page of headlines that you put this in these notes.
No, it's just kind of crazy. From Chevron selling some Canadian oil, sand and shale assets for about six and a half billion, you all said, BP abandoning a target to cut oil and gas put output by twenty thirty. That's from Reuters.
Saudi Arabia is preparing to make a multi billion dollar bed on a hydrogen that will launch a new company, and then equanor in the wind space, buying a two point five billion dollar steak in Orsted, the Danish wind giant.
It all just kind of comes together, which is why we knew we wanted to talk to doctor ellen Wald. She's president at Transversal Consulting, which focuses on the intersection of energy and geopolitics. Yet nothing going on there A little sarcasm. She's also senior Fellow at the Atlanta Council, author of Saudi Inc. Which is all about a ramco in the company's role and huge historical significance in the region. She joins us from Jacksonville, Florida.
Hey, before we get to the latest on energy, certainly related to hurricanes and storms, we have to ask everything. Okay, ahead of Milton, You're you're in Jacksonville, which you know you won't see the worst.
I'm actually I'm actually in South Florida.
Yeah, Bocage.
Now, everything is probably going to be fine here, but there's definitely major concern for the West coast and also you know, through Orlando and and through there, So there's there's definitely some major concern with this hurricane for most of the state, just not exactly where I am.
How do you think about before we get into some of the headlines and obviously the Middle East, but no climate change and the impact that could potentially have either on just disrupting the systems, causing systems to go down. I mean, I don't know how does it factor in to how you think about the energy markets?
So that's a that's an interesting thought. I think the most important things when you think about hurricanes and systems and energy, I think the most important things we've got going on now is that there's a lot more capital concentrated in areas that are hurricane prone now than there used to be.
So when we talk.
About level of destruction, yeah, there's a lot more destruction going on because there's just a lot more in Florida and in areas that are hurricane prone, and so it can be hard to kind of measure and say, well, it's this really.
Way more destructive.
You know, a lot of we're looking at a lot of things in terms of comparing this hurricane to one happened in nineteen twenty one. So I think it's really hard to say, like, oh, yes, climate change has caused this.
When you think about energy, it's definitely of concern.
Florida gets all of its oil supplies, or almost all of them, via barges that go to Tampa. It doesn't have a lot of ports, it doesn't have a lot of pipelines, and so for the entire state, energy and access to gasoline can be concerning during a hurricane simply because you know, if a highway is flooded out, then tankers can't.
Necessarily get to certain locations.
So it's obviously something you know that we need to keep an eye on, even if you aren't in the direct path of a hurricane.
What about when it comes to disruptions at rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, which we have seen during previous hurricane events during previous tropical storms. Why is the focus on rising oil prices now out of Middle East and not because of disruption in the US, So that's interesting.
I think it can very much depend on exactly where the hurricane is going in This hurricane is taking a path.
You know it's going eastward, and I know it's.
Right now it's near the peninsula in Mexico. It may not be heading near a lot of the platforms and the rigs that are concerning, or it may not necessarily be going in that direction. Also, there are now a
lot of movable rigs, so things can move. The biggest concern with hurricanes and energy is when it gets towards Houston, towards the ports, because there's just so much energy, not just oil, but also gasoline, imports, exports, natural gas energy that goes in that area that a disruption like a hurricane can actually impact the entire country when it comes
to gasoline prices. My suspicion, and I'm not an expert mediuroologist, is that this hurricane isn't necessarily going in the path of the oil production in the Gulf, though I'm sure we will hear in the next day or two that some rigs are being evacuated.
Well, and let's layer that on top because it's really been interesting to watch the energy marks. I think there was concerns about the weakness in China in particular, also, you know, just other areas of the world like crimping demand, and so there was keeping prices lower. Then of course, you you know, layer on top of that Ellen the Middle East tensions, and then we've seen oil certainly spike. What is I don't know, what is the longer term price.
I'm just looking at, you know, crude oil right now seventy seven to twenty a barrel. What is kind of the likely price in the next I don't know, six to twelve months in your view? And why?
I mean, I think that's very very hard to say. It's very hard to pin down a number, and it does depend on this confluence, like you've said, you've got you know, some days the market might be focusing on demand weakness from China.
Other days it might be focusing on.
The potential for supply disruptions in the Middle East, and those can really impact numbers. I do think that the oil market is going to be very, very focused in the coming months on OPEC, and whether OPEC decides to go through and to go along with its planned production increases, especially because that's something that is fairly predictable in terms of all of these other things. You know, there's no way to predict, you know, is Israel going to launch some kind of attack on Iran?
Is that going to impact oil supplies? Is it not? Is Israel not going to do that?
You know, there are a lot of factors here that are an, whereas OPEK is much more knowable, and that may impact oil prices more strongly in the next you know, say four months.
What in your view could be a potential target for Israel.
So I think, you know, when you look at when you look at this area, I do think that there's a benefit for Israel in people the United States, other countries Iran thinking or believing that they will or can attack Iranian oil infrastructure. I think it's highly unlikely. It's very unlikely that Israel would be able to say, cripple Iran's oil infrastructure or oil industry with say one attack
or two attacks. They'd really have to launch a highly coordinated attack that is very risky and would probably not be successful because they need to fly through Saudi airspace.
For example.
Potential target could be the Abadan refinery, which supplies a lot of Iran's gasoline needs itself, and so that could definitely have a devastating effect on Iran. I do think that there will be a lot of pressure on Israel not to do this, but like I said, I don't think that it's likely Israel would do that. But I think Israel does feel that it's beneficial for other countries to think that it might, and it may derive some
strategic benefits from that in the long run. So I think the oil market is going to continue to act as though Israel that there is a heightened risk that Israel would do this.
Hey Ellen, just about twenty five seconds here one last story, equinor buying a two and a half billion dollars stake in the Danish wind giant oristed. We continue to see money being invested in renewables. Does that shift continue despite how much respend still talking about fossil fuels And again, just about twenty twenty five seconds.
I definitely think we're going to see more investment inter renewables. I don't think that that is going to noticeably change the mix and the oil market. Oil still going to be one of the most important energy fuels in many years to come, though I do think that certain companies could be impacted by the investments that they make in certain types of renewable industries and certain types of renewable power.
Well, great to go on all those headlines that are out there today, Ellen, thank you as owees. Doctor Ellen Wall, President of Transversal Consulting, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. Joining us there in Florida.
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Terry Williams meantime. She is the president and COO and an owner of One United Bank. It is the largest black owned bank in the country. It was founded back in nineteen sixty eight during the American Civil Rights movement. Today is largely digital, though they also have some branches tim in California, Florida, and Massachusetts.
We got Terry with us from Miami. We've been talking to our Florida guests throughout the show. Today, we're going to get to the interview what you're seeing, but of course we're thinking about you and everybody who's been affected by the recent storms and who could be affected in the near future by the storms. How are you guys doing down there?
So far, so good.
It's definitely cloudy, and I actually had plans to leave Miami.
I'm in Miami now, but I'm going.
To stay because of the hurricane and be here, you know, with the troops as I call them, So I think we'll be fine. But it definitely, you know, category four or five is definitely nothing to you know, not be concerned about.
Yeah, sort of. It seems like people who live down there are kind of used to this stuff. But I think at the same time, I mean the frequency and intensity we're seeing that. Well, okay, let's talk economy, because you've got a great view of the economy as president, COO and owner of one United Bank. We got that blowout jobs number last week. In your view, how is the economy doing?
Yeah, you know, the economy is doing great, and I you know, I had to even say that sometimes because people look at me sort of strange, like, what are you talking about?
But really, you know, I remember.
When interest rates and maybe you know when they were high as twenty percent even twelve percent interest rates, even though they are much higher than the three percent that they used to be, still a mortgage rate of six percent is relatively low. Unemployment is you know, strong, Jobs numbers are strong, Inflation is coming down. I mean, this is one of these great economies that you know, for some reason, and you know, understandable after what we've went through.
People aren't completely feeling.
It yet, but I'm very optimistic about the economy.
Well. So in terms of the outcome come November, how would you guys really tap into the underserved the underrepresented? When it comes to the financial system, it's something that Tim and I and we talk about a lot at Bloomberg. We obviously cover, you know, in a week where we have earnings in the big banks, they get covered, but there are many people who are left out of the financial system. And that's really where when United and others
come into the picture. So, having said that, the outcome of the November election, how might that impact your business and your community?
So there are a lot of ways that it can impact our community, But first and foremost is the economy. You know, beyond the politics. It's really where we see interest rates going, employment going, and our hope is that, regardless of who wins, that that strength and the economy will continue. But we also are seeing you know, what I'll call a power shift. I think we're going to talk about our stream that's tomorrow, but there's definitely a
power shift. And what we mean by that is that there's a greater sense, particularly in the Black community, of our strength and our resilience and our ability to sort of weather the storms, you know, regardless of the storms. So when you look at you know, post pandemic, we've seen some of the largest number of small businesses started in this country, and a lot of them in minority communities. You know, we've seen record unemployment low rates for the
African American community. What we really need to work on is home ownership and making home ownership more affordable. And my hope is, again regardless of the outcome of the election, that you know, that the federal government will continue to focus on home ownership.
How do they do that in your view, because there's this challenge when it comes to we talked about this last week when it comes to zoning and actually Tim Wallas has talked about this too, the challenge of focusing on home ownership when the supply of homes is low and doing what trying to encourage home builders to build, but the national government can only do one thing. Yeah, they can only do so much, Terry, what do you see as the solution here?
Yeah, well, there's definitely a need for down payment assistance, and there are programs. There are local programs like here in Miami and California and in Boston, great programs for first time home buyers. So that's the first thing, because that's where it's mainly felt is the starter homes, the lack of starter homes, so down payment assistance is huge, and that's one area. But the second is definitely zoning.
You know, in California they loosened zoning so that you can build more ADUs or accessory dwelling units, which gives more housing as well as gives individuals some income possibilities if they have space in their you know, in their yard for an ADU or even having family members you know, in some cases, you know, it's grandparents or students that are living in these ADUs. But there needs to be much more flexibility on housing and I hate to say this, but less need for parking oh takes.
It's like, listen, it's like you listened to our conversation last week.
It's so funny.
Love it.
It's exactly what we talked about with someone who was an expert in terms of zoning and urban planning. And but that was a big thing, that the amount of parking spots. I don't know how we get around it because we don't seem to embrace public transportation as much as we probably need to. We certainly have it here in New York.
Yeah, we spoke to Sarah Bronan, who's an architect attorney. She's a Cornell University professor. She wrote a new book. It's called Key to the City. It's on our podcast feed. I know that because I sent it to my wife earlier today.
I know one of our producers, Elizabeth swiped my copy. She was gone into urban pleasure.
She was gone that day that we did the interview.
Elizabeth was.
But you're so right, Terry, in terms of that, is it getting any better for communities that just we talk about it so much, right when we finally have decided that wealth creation it's not about income, it's about wealth creation and generational wealth, and a home is often an entry point in a lot of ways to creating generational wealth. Is it getting any better for underserved communities?
It is getting better slowly, and again I'll talk about here in Miami because this is where I am at the moment, But there has been so many condos built
that it's starting to become a renter's market. And that also gives the opportunity for some people to focus on home ownership because you know, the cost of rent has been so high, so there is and you know, even when we were talking about parking and public transportation, there was actually one of these voter initiatives where the majority of voters said here in Miami that they wanted the
government to invest in public transportation. So, you know, I definitely think that let me put it this way, I think the electorate, you know, the citizens are moving in the right direction. I think it's up to us as leaders and especially our elected officials, to really move with them and support what we see on the ground as being the need.
Hey I wanted to you read reference to this, but you're taking part in a pretty cool event tomorrow night. It brings the other leaders in finance, politics, diversity, and it comes against the backdrop of a historic presidential election less than a month away. Kamala Harris could be the first woman of color, an Asian American to be president.
First woman also, yeah, I mean you can tell, how are you viewing her candidacy in the context of the national conversation around race, around politics, around representation.
Yeah, so as you know, owner of a bank, president of the bank, and being a black woman. If you can't see this, you know, if it's your listening, you know, I'm definitely.
Used to people.
Under estimating me and black women, and I think that what we see now is really a better sense of our strength. You know, we knew it, but now the world is starting to see it and recognize it, you know. And I'll use myself as an example. You know that there are very few owners of banks, and very few black women owners of banks. So when I walk into the room, there's sort of a sense of like, really, you know, is this kill the bank or you know, even could a bank be black owned?
You know, and so there's a lot of questions.
But when given the opportunity to share, you know that we're the first digital you know, black Digital Bank, that we actually have customers all over the country, and that we have a great understanding of the needs of load and mounted income communities and you don't have to be
black to bank with us. You know, when people start to realize that, you know, because of where we came from, you know, from middle class roots, because we have an understanding of what it's like to not have a lot of money, we are more in tune with the needs of the majority of Americans and that using that knowledge to provide better services and better policies. You know, I think people are starting to recognize that this is a good thing that's happening in America.
Yeah, it's absolutely and you know, it'll be interesting to see what happens certainly come November. But you're right, like to have this event and just remind you people of the voices that are out there. And this event again happening tomorrow, correct, just quickly.
Yes, tomorrow evening at seven o'clock Eastern time. And it's called the Powership, and it's about black women and politics and economics and really an advocacy and how you know we are coming into our own.
Power is shifting.
All right, Terry, Thank you so much. Terry Williams. She's the president and COO of One United Bank and this is Bloomberg Business Week. Terry, thank you, brother Marc.
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This is the drive to the globe. Well Bern and on on Bluuebirg Radio.
All right, everybody, we've got about eighteen minutes left in today's trading session, getting ready to wrap up the Monday trade. Charlie walking through all of those numbers. We've seen some broad based selling and we're hovering around our loads of the session, so one percent down across the board of those major equity averages. And a big reason why is certainly, you know, we continue to watch some of these tensions,
but again to see yields. We talked to this, We talked about this with our Michael McKenzie and ivery JERSEYBS numbers came out the new narrative right when it comes to what we're seeing in rates, and you've got a four percent on the ten year treasury. We had four percent earlier on the two year. We'll get another inflation print this week, and we'll see whether or not that
resets the conversation. But we see a fair amount of volatility, but right now it's yields higher, and so we're pulling back our expectations for what the Fed does perhaps this year in terms of market.
I want to know what Jamie Batner has to say about it. Is chief investment officer over at Creative Planning.
He said, Jamie Diamond what he wanted.
He's tomorrow.
We want to know what he has to say about it too.
Yeah, we'll find out tomorrow. The jummies we got Jamie Batman with us right now, Creative Planning and it's affiliates. They've got about three hundred and twenty five billion dollars in assets under management. Jamie joins us from Overland to Park, Kansas. Is that the story for you today, Jamie? Is it all about the yield on the tenure?
Well, girl, tam, thanks for having me, Thanks for thanking you for Creative Planning. Okay, what's the story today? This kind of market pressure we're seeing, Well, it's a byproduct of stronger than anticipate economic data. Yes, there's always the global concerns, problems in the Middle East, problems with Russian and its neighbors, but unfortunate, it's more often the norm and the exception that problems in the least and problems
with Russian and its neighbors. So to the economic data on that side of what's driving things, it's a byproduct of surprising strength in the underlying markets. You know, the jobs report that came out, you know, stronger than anticipated. The consumer, you know, the American consumer, just stronger than anticipated. The impact on that is, okay, there might not be as many rate reductions as initially anticipated, but that guessing with rate reductions is as useless as a lot of
short term prognostications. I mean, beginning of this year, Carol Tam, you know, Wall Street strategist, we're anticipating seven to eight answer T rates cuts. We've only gotten two. And so that's why trying to prognosticate in the short run is not what creative plane does. But again, this is a reaction to actually strong data that hopefully good news will revert to good news over the long.
Run, right, as long as that good news doesn't include higher inflation.
Right, Yeah, absolutely, obviously we have to measure that. But but you know, these momentary blips. It's it's all about the longer trend line, not kind of the week over week, you know, month of a month type data, and that trend line continues to be very, very positive. And it's
just overall inflation, you know some things. Just yes, our price is still high, absolutely, in certain segments suffering, absolutely, But overall that trend line over the long run, which is what you can really help drive decision making off of instead the short run, is still trending positive. And so yes, as long as inflation doesn't get out of control again, looks like we're in a good spot.
Every question, every interview, Carol, I have to ask about the election because now, go for we are less than a month out.
Where's my app that tells me how many days?
Yeah, it's less than a month than I'm just keep in mind, Jamie, are you are you watching our clients asking you about election outcome?
Here?
Are they concerned about it? How are you looking at it?
Well, of course they're asking about it because it creates a lot of emotional angst, emotional activity. But as we know, you know in markets, you know, fear and greed, you know, just like all poor decision making life is what drives in when we need to try and avoid that. Okay, let's step back on what drives all of our investment decision making here creative planning. It's the historical empirical data
in academic research. So in general, you know, the markets are up about seventy five percent of time stock markets right, three out of four years. It's not always linear like that seventy five percent of time markets go up. Actually, the data supports that in presidential election years the stock market's up about eighty four percent of time. So if you just take out all the rhetoric, you'd say, okay, actually typically speaking markets like the election years, but then
also everything that's going on. You know, obviously it's emotional, but as I talked about, like with the Middle East, with Russia, these are unfortunate common elements of the world in which we live. I mean, you know, Trump's assassination attempt. Fifteen percent of Americans, fifteen percent of American presidents have
been shot. That's not a rounding, are you know? I mean, it's you know, any baby boomer or almost all baby boomers, can remember the last time a sitting president refused his party's renomination with with Lyndon Johnson sixty eight and the market was up fifteen percent at the rest of the year from there. But the key really difference is is that, yes, keep calm and carry on well trodden subject but even the underlying data that sometimes people try and trade off
of is very, very misleading. The facts don't agree with the rhetoric. And what I mean by that is like you can look up any kind of you know, website right now and to say, Okay, this sector will be good for a renewed Trump administration, or this sector will be good for Harris administration. The data just doesn't support that. And what do I mean by that just looking over the last couple of administrations in four year periods. Take
take clean energy as an example. You broke it out during the eight years of Obama and the four years so far of Biden, and then the four years of Trump in between. You know, clean energy did dramatically better under the Trump administration they did under either Obama or Biden. And you'd assume that to be kind of democratic friendly sector, but not to say it's not a Republican Democrat thing, because the exact opposite could be said of big banks
or traditional energy. You say, Okay, these are more kind of things that would do well under under Republican administration. No, the data actually says the exact opposite. They did better under democratic administration versus Republican And that's a key that just the rhetoric doesn't sync up with the data. You have to keep calm and carry on and do not make those emotional decisions based upon the heightened interest that politics brings to the table.
A lot of politics though, looking at some of the big tech and I just want to bring in some headlines that are crossing. Earlier today, we did do the story out about how Alphabet must lift restrictions that prevent developers from setting up rival marketplaces that compete with its Google Play Store. That was a ruling from a judge, so upending the search giants dominance in the lucrative Android app market. This was a federal judge in San Francisco today handing a big victory to Epic Games in its
long running anti trust challenge to Alphabet's app store. Well, meantime, just a moment ago, Google out and it plans to appeal this Epic Games verdict and to ask the courts to pause implementing remedies so to appeal the court injunction and epen Gate in the Epic Games anti trust case. I should point out this stuck's been under pressure for most of the day, but right now it's near its lows,
down about two percent here. So in terms of rhetoric, big tech increasingly on regulators radar, Jamie just got about thirty seconds. Is there a big tech thought for you here?
Well, yeah, big tech is just the hot dot of the moment, just like you know big oil was twenty years ago, or big big steel twenty years before that, or big railroads you know, one hundred years ago. So there's always going to be whatever kind of the focus of like the current engine of economic growth, there's going to be that additional regulatory scrutiny. So really this is just part and parcel for consistency in what's kind of a healthy economic environment where some things are zigging while
others are zagging. There's regulatory focus in other some sectors versus others. Over long run, we see that as a healthy thing, and that innovation usually outpaces regulation and that's part of markets, always has been, always will be.
Jamie Batmer, Chief Investment officer over at Creative Planning, joining us from overland at Park, Kansas.
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