Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Today marks four consecutive days of conflict between Israel and Iran. Israel first launched a surprise attack on Iran on Friday, striking cities including its capital, Tehran, and key nuclear facilities, and the two countries continued to attack each other over the weekend. As of Monday afternoon, hundreds of people in Iran and dozens
in Israel have been killed. Conflict between Iran and Israel has been simmering for decades, and the relationship has only gotten more tense since Israel and Iran backed Hamas went to war in twenty twenty three. But Golnar Mota Valley, who covers Iran for Bloomberg, says these latest attacks marked a major escalation.
So it's a very different type of conflict and war than what we've seen playing out between Israel and Hamas or Israel's operation in Gaza.
Golnar says it's different because the two sides are engaging each other directly instead of fighting through proxies. As world leaders convene for the G Seven in Canada this week, many are concerned about the prospect of continued fighting and a broader regional conflict. Asked if the US would get more involved militarily, President Donald Trump said he didn't want to discuss it and encouraged both sides to work towards a resolution.
They have to make a deal, and it's painful for both parties, but I'd say Iran is not winning this war, and they should talk, and they should talk immediately before it's too late.
I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from Bloomberg News today on the show, the conflict between Israel and Iran at a tipping Point.
Has just issued a statement telling residents of a district in northern Tehran that's heavily populated and it's a big district to evacuate the area within the next hours in anticipation of an air strike. That language is very, very chilling, because what it suggests is that the IDF is going to use the same approach that it used in Gaza. People are just getting out of the city and trying to get to the countryside, but they're not moving very fast.
I think there is a fear that they're kind of like sitting ducks.
In Israel, residents were warned that there would be further attacks from Iran in the coming days, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyah who urged people to rush to bomb shelters when air raid sirens sound or when they get phone alerts.
From what I've seen and from the reporting that we have done, it's clear that Israeli residents, particularly in Tel Aviv, have had a huge amount of diction to their lives. And the pictures that you've seen coming from Televiv of buildings,
apartment blocks just gutted and destroyed, they're quite jarring. Having said that, I think the reports are from the IDF and I think from our colleagues, is that the Iron Dome, the very sophisticated air defense system that Israel has, has been relatively efficient at intercepting the majority of Iran's missiles.
Iran and Israel have been in conflict for decades. In the past twenty months, as you've mentioned, have seen tensions only rise since Israel and her mass which has been backed by Iran, went to war. But this is a clear escalation. How much of a surprise was this to Iran.
I think it was a huge surprise. I think people
were massively shocked. I do think that there has been so much tension between these countries over so many years, and there's been so much rhetoric about war and threats of destruction, threats of annihilation or at this kind of end game language coming both from Iran specifically the Supreme Leader of Iran iol Alikarmene, and also threats of military action by Benjaminette and Yahoo over the past twenty years, specifically in reference to the nuclear program, but more broadly.
The Isamic Republic is a state system and a regime, so it's been on a low boil for many many years. However, with all that in mind, I don't think anyone in Iran would have expected this for the simple reason that Iran was engaged officially in negotiations with the United States
over its nuclear program. And you know, normally when countries are involved in a diplomatic tract like this, they don't expect to be attacked by a close ally of their counterpart in their negotiations, and these were very sensitive negotiations.
So I think there's a strong element within the Iranian establishment, and I've spoken to business people as well in Tehran who were extremely worried, but many of them feel a genuine kind of betrayal and humiliation that they've entered this diplomatic process expecting the other side, that counterparts the US to also like them, be looking for a deal that's going to resolve this standoff.
Trump had suggested that those talks were going well just a few days ago, and he had advised Israel not to attack Iran while they were ongoing. So why did Israel attack now?
I think from the point of view of Netanyahu, it's a very opportunistic move, and I think he felt that it was a kind of now or never situation for him.
This defense strategy that Iran has relied on pretty much since the US invasion of Iraq to surround itself at arm's length, This kind of like forward defense strategy of having militias, whether it's in Iraq or whether it's in Yemen, whether Huthisa, or whether it's Lebanon and Hezbolah or Hamas in Gaza or Bashar al ah Soud in Syria, having this sort of like network of allies that can help it.
That strategy kind of crumbled after Israel began bombarding southern Lebanon and southern Bay Route and it effectively completely sort of crippled Hezbollah and At the same time, Iran's economy has continued to struggle. It's still being sanctioned actively by the US. Those sanctions have been increasing and expanding under Trump. The leadership in Iran harmony and the Republic of widely unpopular. Their support base has been shrinking, and they have had
some extremely challenging demonstrations. So there's a kind of common fluence of things going on that, perhaps from netanna Who's point of view, make this the best time to attack Iran.
How much of this is about damaging Iran's nuclear capabilities versus pushing sort of a broader regime change in Iran.
From what Netnau has said, he kind of wants it to be both. So as a statement he made addressing the Uranian people, you know, he made very explicit remarks about how we're going to go after the targets of the Ayatola's regime, and.
Our pilots over the skies of Tehran will deal blows to the Itolo regime that they cannot even imagine. And I can tell you this, we have indications that senior leaders in Iran already packing their bags, they sense what's coming.
That very much suggests that He's not just looking for a narrow strategic opportunity to incapacitate the nuclear program. He actually wants regime change. I think that's quite clear.
You've reported that Tehrana is walking a difficult line here in terms of its response. It wants to avoid in escalation that would get the US involved in this conflict. But what is that point? What would get the US to step into this conflict?
There is a point where Israel will have to seek help from the United States if the conflict continues and escalates. It's not something that Israel can continue alone. The other thing that's going to trigger US involvement is a very important issue of Iran's membership or it's a signature of the MPT, the nucle Non Periferation Treaty. Iran's parliament is going to have a discussion about whether they should propose
a bill to exit and withdraw from the MPT. Doing that could trigger a very serious response from the US, because once they do that, koreated in two thousand and three, then that's Iran's way of saying, like Pakistan, like India, like Israel itself reportedly, we are going to develop a nuclear weapons.
Arsenal after the break with the region and the rest of the world are most worried about if Iran and Israel's conflict deepens. Even as Trump suggests that Iran is open to talks, Israel's strategic affairs Minister Ron Durmer told Bloomberg Monday that it will continue to strike targets in the country. I asked Bloomberg's Golnarmata Valley about the concerns of world leaders as they watch this unfold.
I think, obviously the thing that they're most concerned about is that the war doesn't widen, or it doesn't expand to engulf more of the region, that other countries in the region don't get involved. There's a massive fear there.
One of the things that's preventing that from happening is the fact that Iran and the Gulf Arab State, they've really worked on their relationship since the last Trump administration, and after the twenty to fifteen nuclear deal, relations between Iran and Saudi deteriorated considerably, they actually cut diplomatic ties.
So rebuilding those relationships was a key part of this whole nuclear talks process that was going on between Iran and the Trump administration because those countries were really encouraging Trump to do a deal with the Iranians, reduce the tension in the region, reduce the tension with Iran. But obviously Israel had other ideas.
What impact is this having on energy and oil markets?
So it's obviously going to have a direct impact on oil markets because Iran is a major producer of oil. Not only that it sits on the Persian Gulf where we have the Strait of Hormones. There's a huge amount of oil that passes through that narrow passageway in the Persian Gulf every day. Iran has threatened numerous times in the past that it will shut down or block the Strait of horrm wares and countries like China rely on a secure means of securing energy from the Middle East
so that they can run their economies effectively. But yeah, the impact on oil prices is immediate. If the market thinks that it's going to have an effect on supply, then prices will obviously rise. There are some others.
And they are arising, yes they are, But.
There are other fundamentals that affect whether the market thinks that supply is going to be protected or it's going to come from somewhere else. It's going to be offset by other factors in other countries, amongst other oil producers. But fundamentally, yeah, the market is directly affected by any conflict that happens around in and around the Persian Gulf, and after all, Iran is a major opic producer.
We're seeing reports starting to service that Iran is signaling an interest in de escalation. What does that mean?
Yeah, we have seen those reports today and I think also Trump himself may have alluded to this. He's made some reference to Iranians wanting to talk behind the scenes. The Uranians haven't said any such thing, But interestingly, they haven't actually said explicitly that will never go back to the negotiating table again. They've said that nuclear talks for now are useless while Israel is bombarding us, which is
different from saying we will never talk to them. And maybe at the moment that looks like the most sensible way through this, a back channel de escalation where through mediating countries Iran says we want to end this. How can we start? Tell the Americans we want to do this, Tell them to tell the Israelis, X, Y, and Z. But a lot of this, I think depends on what
Israel does and what Nettana who wants to do. Israel has acted with a level of impunity over the past twenty months in the face of a lot of international criticism, so it's hard to know who, whether that's Trump or someone else, is able to say to these Raelies, draw a line under it. The Iranians want to draw a line under it, and you know, listen to us.
This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access to all of Bloomberg dot com, subscribe today at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast offer. If you liked this episode, make sure to follow and review The Big Take wherever you listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow