From Bloomberg News and iHeartRadio. It's the big take. I'm wes Kosova. Today, White leaders around the world are paying
close attention to upcoming elections in Turkey. Turkey's president retchev type Erdowan has led the nation for twenty years now, but staggering inflation there and citizens' dissatisfaction with the government's response to devastating earthquakes earlier this year has led to a challenge to his power from an opposition candidate in the country's elections that will be held on May fourteen, and.
The criticism from opposition and add On's critics has been that he has used the presidential system to only gain more power to do whatever he wants, and that has come at the expense of Democracylomberg.
Reporter Beryl Ackmann in Ankara, Turkey's capital. Beryl and our colleague Sylvia Westall and Mark Champion are following events in Turkey, and they're here to tell us what's happening.
It is a very pivotal election for everyone across the nation because on one hand, we have one person in power right now who's been in power for two decades, has ruled the country, which is present rejeb type Ardouon and in the last two decades he has really centralized power and he's become the strong man of the country, micromanaging every single decision ranging from the economy to foreign
policy and domestic politics. And on the other hand, we have an opposition that is unified for the first time, made up of six parties across the political spectrum, from both right and left wing parties, and they're criticizing Ardun for diminishing human rights, cracking down on dissidents, really cracking down on the opposition, and centralizing power around himself. So
the country is highly polarized in that sense. This election is taking place in the background of one of the worst cost of living crises in the country and the worst under present Ardons twenty years in power. It's also happening after two powerful earthquakes that struck Turkey south eastern February, where the government really came under fire for their ill preparedness against the disaster, which killed over fifty thousand people
in Turkey alone. So the election is taking place as the government has taken a lot of heat even from its own traditional water base, and that's why people see it as a turning point that could end the political tenure of a politician that people have been used to, even a generation has grown up with Mark.
Beryl talked about these six opposition parties and they're not running independently but are led by one man. Can you tell us about him?
He's the leader of the Republican People's Party, which was at a Turks party, the founder of Turkey and his name is Kimal Kilcholu. He's been on the political scene for a long time. It's not his first rodeo in terms of trying to unseat ere One, and he has not been particularly successful in the past. But it's interesting the way that he has really grown into this election campaign. You know, on the one side, you have Eedone who
has a very familiar message and vision. He presents himself as this sort of very active force for leader of the nation. You know, last month he was unveiling the fifth generation aircraft, that fighter jet that the Turks are building at the moment, and these are the kinds of things that he presses on and when he goes on the campaign trail, he always talks about these big projects that he's done, you know, roads, bridges, dams, all this kind of stuff. So this is his idea of a
modern Turkey. And on the other hand you have Killy Starolo, who's a much softer spoken character. He is very much about saying that, look, it's time for a little less of this, a little less of the grandeur, and to really try and reconcile a nation that's become extremely polarized. A lot of it is about, look, we have to conserve our water supply, the rivers are drying up. We want to sit down, reconcile with the EU, reconcile with our neighbors in the Mediterranean, and try and figure some
of this stuff out. Now, how much of that would actually happen is you know, it's an election campaign. But the point is that it's a very different kind of message, and I think that's partly what's really quite interesting about this particular.
Election, Sylvia. One other reason why the opposition seems to be resonating is something that Beryl mentioned, which is really high inflation. And everyone has taken an unusual path to fighting inflation, which is the opposite of of what economists usually do when they're trying to help the economy.
The way in which the Turkish Central Bank has been operating has been very unusual when you compare it to what happens globally. So normally, when you have high inflation, you would increase rates, but in Turkey it's been the opposite. So he believes if you lower interest rates, you will increase supply, and that goes against general economic theory, and that's why Turkey has had this outlier status and on
global central banks. So and he's kept going on despite the fact that economic advisors and the central bank itself there's been internal debate on what should be done next. But because the president of the country is calling for lower rates, that's what's been happening, and we've seen the effects kind of ripple across the Turkish economy with extremely high inflation. Last year it hit eighty five percent and
above annually. It's sort of dipped since then, but in general, there's been this rampant inflation and that's been something that's been feeding into voter sentiment ahead of the election.
One thing that ad On has been focusing on his growth. He has been fixated on economic growth for a long time and has championed for low borrowing costs as long as he's been in power. President Aardon gained more influence of the economic administration in twenty eighteen when Turkey transitioned to an executive exclusive presidential system, the prime minister seats
was abolished and the president acquired executive powers. One of the newly acquired powers was to appoint or sack the central bank governor or the Monetary Policy Committee members anytime he wanted, and this has really raised speculation on the autonomy of the central bank, as the central bank governors
who clashed with Ardwon on monetary policy. When the central bank wanted to raise rates, for example, and Ardon disagreed, they were fired with midnight presidential decrees, and three central bank governors in about three years were fired, which has really raised speculation on how independent the central bank has been functioning, especially in controlling inflation, because they've been facing
heavy political pressure from Ardoon and with elections approaching. The present has really focused on cheap lending, especially to sectors he favors in his Turkey economy model, including exports and investment oriented businesses. And the thinking is that if you have low borrowing costs, you'll increase investment. You'll attract investments, which thereby will increase production, increase employment and really benefit the whole nation. But his thinking has really yet to
be validated in real time experience in Turkey. Exports are not doing well. They've been dampened, and Turkey is really heavily dependent on energy imports, which has taken a huge toll on its current account balance and the deficit has been deep in red. This so called thinking has been failing on a lot of parts, and especially with households
as well. They're purchasing powers of citizens have eroded, and many people think that despite official inflation now you know, dipping under fifty percent, that what they face in their homes and in their wallets is still much higher than that.
Edwin has a very large following and a large base of support. Who are his supporters and what is it about him that they find appealing after twenty years?
Arden is this fiery, charismatic strong man and he has really flexed Turkey's muscles as this regional power and raising really ambitions to become a global player. Now that we're seeing him placing Turkey as a media in the Russia's war on Ukraine. He's taken the central stage with Sweden and Filman's NATO bids. He's raised Turkey to the global stage and really has been ambitious and foreign policy. His
waters traditionally have been the religious conservative base. When Adon first came into power, one of his main campaign points was that the country's conservative communities were repressed before through particularist leftist policies, so he really played on that. But in recent years we've also seen him allying with the Nationalist Movement Party and really tried to appeal to the
national sentiment national List voters as well. We've seen him both in this election campaign and in previous ones targeting the oppositions unofficial or informal alliance or support to the country's pro Kurdish parties and the pro Kurdish block, and he has really spoken out against Turkey's traditional Western allies like the US and the EU, so those all have had appeal to the nationalists and the conservative water base, and that just is in full contrast to the opposition's
presidential contender, Clisch Starolo was very soft spoken and a lot of people at least in his traditional water base really seemed to like that. Churisman him being able to stand up to the traditionally big global powers like the US.
There is a long arc to Eron's role in the world. And I recall meeting him back just after his Party of One election, and he was extremely cautious. He was extremely courteous, and he was very very careful not to do or say anything that would make him appear extreme in any sense. And they were really, you know, he was really trying to get the West to accept him.
And then, you know, I met him several times over the following years, think three or four times between then and around twenty eleven, and you could see him all the time becoming much more confident and eventually really reveling in upsetting the US in particular Europe. His found this to be domestically very fruitful in terms of Voto support. Turkey is in general not a very pro American country in particular, and that has really played out Beryl.
As Mark mentioned in the beginning, Eerdowan was very accommodating and even somewhat timid. Now no one would call him that, And in fact, over the years he's greatly consolidated his power by changing the structure of Turkey's government. Can you describe that? Yes?
So when Ardon was elected, he started his national political career as a prime minister in two thousand and two, and at the time, the presidential role was ceremonial and this was how it was until twenty seventeen when Adon decided to hold a refound him to transition Turkey from a prime minister or parliamentary system to an exclusive presidential
system where the prime ministerial role would be abolished. So when he acquired these new powers, I think Aardon felt that he based his power on the people, saying that he was elected by the people and it really gave him this power to change anything he wants and do legislation. And when he transitioned Turkey to the system he had actually appointed to the US as an example of how
well things work. But there's a much better division of legislative and executive powers in the US than there's in Turkey, and the criticism from opposition and add On's critics has been that he has used the presidential system to only gain more power to do whatever he wants, and that has come at the expense of democracy.
After the break, how Aredowan made Turkey and himself a force to be reckoned with in global politics.
And a state of emotion agency has been declared overnight in Turkey following a powerful earthquake which has hit a wide area in the southeast of the country.
In Syria, seven point eight magnitude quake hit early this morning, toppling buildings and triggering a search for survivors.
Mark Another big issue in this race is something that Beryl mentioned earlier, which is discontent about the government's response after the devastating earthquakes earlier this year.
Yes, this is a particular problem for ed One in many ways this election. If you go back to when ed One and his party first came to power, the AKP back then, it's twenty years ago now, But what they really pitched themselves as was a straight shooting, relatively honest party that was actually going to get things done, that it was effective, it was efficient, and they talked, amongst other things about earthquakes, because this is a perennial
issue in Turkey. There had been a big earthquake shortly before in ninety nine, and here you are twenty years later and there is a big earthquake out in the east and tens of thousand of people die, and it becomes clear that the building regulations have not improved at all. And it becomes clear that relatively new buildings as well as older ones that were built, you know, before they came to power, were just collapsing like pancakes because they
used all kinds of improper materials. There were systems by
which people could get proval by paying a fee. So it really has sort of taken the emperor's clothes off in terms of that claim of being straight shooting efficient and all that sort of stuff, and it's left the area open for the opposition to say they can't do this, we can't and you just put this together with the inflation and so on, and there is a sense that that sort of veneer of competence that for a long time was actually that the AKP was able to deliver
on early in their rule, that that has really sort of shredded away.
I do agree with you, Mark, but I also think that some people are even in the earthquake zone, are confused by a six party opposition alliance because Turkey politically has suffered a lot, especially older generations, from coalition governments that collapsed quickly and left the country economically much more vulnerable than it is now. So there's definitely I think a trauma a generational trauma from the past.
Sylvia Barrel makes a really good point which is part of Aerdine's appeal and really part of Turkey's influence is its important place in the larger global order. It's a member of NATO and yet it often pivots between East and West, and that gives it outsized influence. Can you talk about why someone, say, sitting in Los Angeles should really be watching this election.
There's a generation that grew up with Erduan, right, they don't really know anything different. And I think also that's in terms of foreign policy. So there's lots that we know about Turkey's foreign polancy through the lens of this man, and it's quite difficult to imagine what it would look like without him being there. So I think that's sort
of the way I've looked at that. And when I think about our coverage, every time there's a global story or something happening regionally, Turkey's usually there, and it's usually Erduan himself. He's here, there and everywhere, whether it's involvement in the Nordic bids for NATO, which he kept the world guessing, in the world waiting on how Turkey would vote on that, and everyone was sort of watching what Turkey would do in order for them to be able
to enter NATO. So one element where Erduwan has been very involved internationally is in the Grain deal, and this deal that involves the UN, Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine in order to get Ukrainian grain shipments into global markets, and
it requires all of them to be on board. And Turkey's been a mediator in this because it's trusted by all sides, and Urduin himself has an important line to Russia's President Vladimir Putin, and I think when Turkey first talked about how it could help in this scenario and be a mediator internationally, he wasn't taken that seriously, and then he actually did play an important role. Right now, we have the Turkish election coming up on May fourteenth.
The grain deals set to expire on May eighteenth, so right after the first round, so there is the question of how what happens that election could affect this big international deal that affects global markets, and at the center of that there is this man, so he's there as well.
He's also then when we talk about Syria, there's been a growing understanding or there's been reporting that Turkey is expected to embrace President Assad to bring Acid back into the regional fold, which is something that the US does not want. And again, at the middle of this is Turkey and Dawan and what he wants to do very pragmatic.
So he's been pragmatic in his foreign policy too. In this position where Turkey is between East and West, He's made friends with old foes, whether that's in the Gulf, whether that's looking to Assad, and has looked at how Turkey can benefit from that. So I think when we look at Turkey, we look at how it's involved in many of these big international questions, in these deals, in these negotiations, and at the center of it is this man.
How Turkey strikes a delicate balance between Washington and Moscow. When we come back Sylviia. Despite Turkey's partnerships with the West, Aredwan's relationship with the US and Europe has sometimes been a bit tense. Why is that.
I think that in one way, it's like many countries in the Middle East, and that they are kind of in the middle. They know that in terms of power, they're not going to be like one of the big Security Council powers that they can wield this real influence at that level, so they look at how they need to balance different powers interests with them. So for Turkey, you've got Russia, which has supplied an important political link. It's also been an economic lifeline. Russia is providing fuel
for a Turkish nuclear plant. There was a ceremony last week to load Russian fuel into this Turkish reactor.
So they are.
Important economic ties there. But also it also wants to have relations with the West, so I think at times it has to balance this over and that also comes with things like weaponry with air defenses that it's obtained from Russia and air defenses and equipment that it wants to obtain from the US. It has to kind of balance these different needs for its defense needs. So like many countries in the region, it's sort of looking at
how it has to position itself as a medium power. Right, it's not a big power, it's not a small country.
It's in the middle. And being in the middle requires moving between different countries and trying not to take sides and then actually making up with countries that you didn't always get on with, and that will annoy and I think the way in which you know, I look at the region, is that the US right now under President Joe Biden, has very much looked at foreign policy in terms of values and looking at things in terms of black and white. You're with US or against US on
things like Russia's invasion of Ukraine. If you support Russia or have ties to Russia, you are against the US and you are against Ukraine. But countries like Turkey would argue that foreign policy isn't about black and white. It's about shades of gray. And there are times in which it makes sense to cooperate with Russia and to keep the door open. Other times it doesn't. So of course, you know, there is questions about sanctions, of violation, the
flow of money from Russia, all these different perspectives. But like other countries in the region, the ones it doesn't always see eye to eye on in the Middle East, it actually would agree that you can't really see policy in terms of with US without US black and white. Those kind of arguments that these Middle countries are making resonate quite strongly across other countries in the region.
So barrel the mechanics of the race. The election is held on May fourteenth, and then what happens.
On May fourteen, Turks will wake up and go to the ballots to vote both for political parties they want to be represented in the parliament as well as a
presidential candidate. Now, there might be a run off on the presidential candidate two weeks after the May fourteen vote if the presidential candidate is not able to get over fifty percent of the votes in the first round, and once that election is concluded on May twenty eighth, if it does take place, then Turkey will determine its new president.
So one reason why this election really resonates is that is just the date. In twenty twenty three, this is the one hundredth anniversary of the republic that founded. The date is not a coincidence. Ed On has been working towards this with a view to kind of refounding the Republic. At a Turk was really secularized Turkey and there was a whole mythology around it and him as the founder, and ed One has made it very clear he wants to kind of refound the Republic with a different kind
of ethos and really in his own image. And this is something that the opposition is trying to work against and to say there's a different vision that you can have for the next one hundred years of the Republic, and it doesn't have to be aired.
One's Beryl Sylvia Mark. Thanks so much for coming on the show. Thank you, thanks for listening to us here at The Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. For more shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and we'd love to hear from you. Email us questions or comments to Big Take at bloom Net. The supervising producer of The Big Take is Vicky Virgalina. Our senior producer is Catherine Fink.
Frederica Romanello is our producer. Our associate producer is Zenobsidiki. Philde Garcia is our engineer. Our original music was composed by Leo Sidron. I'm Wescasova. We'll be back tomorrow with another Big Take.