I'm West Kasova today on the Big Take. Bloomberg's Rosalind mathieson on the Hamasa attack against Israel, the Israeli response, and concerns about possible escalating conflict in the Middle East and beyond.
Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip began shooting thousands of rockets at Israel and also infiltrating with their militans across the fence.
Israel and Halas at war.
The death toll TOMPs eleven one hundred as fighting enters a third day.
In the US says it's sending military support to Israel, while Saudi Arabia calls for de escalation. Ros days after this attack, it's still hard to comprehend the scale of what is happening in Israel. Can you give us a picture of the latest on the ground there.
Well, yes, days later, the fighting is still going on. I mean, Israel has unleashed severe Italia against the Hamas forces who've made their incursion into Israel. They've been striking back heavily in the Gaza Strip, which is of course that small bit of land Palestine and territory very close to Israel. But we know that incursions are still going on. They're also coming from the north of Israel, from Lebanon, in small numbers, but certainly some fighting going on there.
And as Israeli a government says itself and the defense officials, they don't yet have the situation under control. The idea that Hamas and its militants could make inroads so far into Israel in such broad measure without any advanced warning from Israel this was going to happen remains really still the most shocking aspect of this to some extent of all.
Can you tell us about the hostages who've been taken, because that seems to be one of the most urgent questions is where they are and what will happen to them?
Well, that's right, and there's quite a bit about that. We simply don't know.
We do know that some of them have been taken in to the Gaza Strip by Hamas militants.
The purpose of that is.
Not exactly clear, but not that difficult to imagine, potentially with all the talk at some point about a full scale ground invasion of Gaza and what those people might be used for in that event. We know they number at least in their hundred one hundreds potentially that they've been taken from various towns and villages in the south of Israel, most of them seem to be now inside the Gaza Strip, are making it very difficult to get them back, and that's why we're seeing a lot of
conversation already about negotiations for some kind of prisoners. What we're seeing countries in the region seemingly offering their services to try and mediate because you can see these hostages becoming really that the major flash point here and sort of forcing Israel's hands to take further action against Hamas inside the Gaza Strip.
And the way Hamas did this, which was to come in and just kill villions in their homes around their homes at this music festival and take hostage those they didn't kill, has really galvanized Israel's population in a way. The country has not been united in a long time, well certainly.
I mean Israel's been famous for its fractious politics for years now, frequent elections in stable kind of governments, short term coalitions, and of late, under the latest administration of Benjamin Netanyahu, of course, widespread protests against his efforts which are seen to be to diminish the independence of the judiciary of the court system, and we've seen mass protests for months over that, including army reservists saying that they're not going to sort of do their job as reservists
as part of it. That's all washed away in an instant. All you can see is unity inside Israel. The business leaders who were sort of funding some of the protest movement against Benjamin Netanyahu are now fire enhancing some of the support for Israel's conflict here against Hamas. Reservists are all signed up in doing their job, they're mobilizing more of them. So all the air for now at least has come out of that protest movement.
And unlike in previous conflicts, which we've seen many of over the years, Netanyahu came out and said Israel is at war, and that really does seem to be more than rhetoric. Israel is mounting a huge counter offensive to quell this attack. What exactly are they doing.
Well, certainly they're retaliating via air, so you're seeing air strikes into the Gaza strip. We're now seeing border skirmishes with Lebanon helicopter gunships engaging in some fighting there. That seems to be fairly small elements in the north, but still there is fighting going on there. But certainly calling up those large number of reserves sends the signal as
you say, that they are serious about this. This is not one of those previous episodes where you saw a couple of days of a violence between Israel and Hamas and then things subsided again.
Just the sheer number of casualties for Israel.
The civilians, those scenes of militants going into people's houses, of killing innocent people, of taking others back into the Gaza Strip. That's going to force who's hand. He can't just sit back in this moment. He does need to do something, and so when he talks about war, he really does seem to mean it.
What we could be seeing.
There is really that full throated ground war against the Gaza Strip and Hamas in particular in the Gaza Strip, and he's warning that'll be months. This is not something that's going to disappear again in a week or two in subside as it has previously. We are talking about weeks and months of conflict, and then of course the risk of course that extends further into the region and draws in other countries as a result.
And ros what is the situation like right now in Gaza.
Well, certainly it's extremely difficult. I mean, it's a very small strip of land that's highly densely populated and has been for many years. These are people who moved into the Gaza strip decades ago due to conflicts elsewhere in the region, and over the years they've lived in quite difficult circumstances, as I said, high population density, not a lot of prospects for employment, difficult in terms of sometimes even accessing basic necessities, and reliant really on external financial
aid to stay afloat. And so life has been very difficult there for many years. And with the sort of the frequent rocket attacks back and forth obviously dangerous also, and so for the people in Gaza, this moment.
Is particularly fraught.
The Israeli administrations say that they're going to ensure there's no water, there's no electricity, They're going to make life as difficult as they can the people are in Gaza, and the hope that that sort of transcends into pressure on Hamas to give in. Essentially, they're hoping that that might mean that there's pressure within the people living inside Gaza.
I mean, obviously there are militants operating in there, but there are also just ordinary people who've been trying to live their lives, blocked from going into Israel to work and to earn money, and so you can imagine that the situation on the ground there is particularly difficult at the moment. Of course, in the longer term, there's this discussion for many years around Gaza and the role of Israel in essentially locking off Gaza from.
The rest of the world.
Israel says that it needs to do so to protect its citizens from Hamas. It argues, it's it's avoided exactly the situation that we're now seeing up until now, and
it's had to do that out of necessity. There are other countries and human rights organizations that have argued in essence that Israel has sort of suppressed the people who are residing in Gaza, has worsened their quality of life, has given them very few options again in terms of the ability to earn money, freedom of movement, and so on. So these are very sort of fundamental, deep issues that have gone on for many years, and a level of resentment amongst those living in Gaza about their.
Situation ras one of the big questions is something you've referred to earlier, which is how Israel could have been caught off guard by this. Israel's intelligence is known to be some of the finest in the world. How is it that Israel had no apparent advanced warning of this attack?
Well, that is the big question, and there are no easy answers, and we may not have any for some time. The Defense Force in Israel says they are mounting inquiries about this, but they will go on for weeks and months, and meantime they are in the middle of now fighting a conflict as well, which they're focusing on. But certainly it is just startling that this could have happened in
the early hours of Saturday morning with no warning. Again, a campaign that must have been in the planning for months, and Israeli intelligence is very highly regarded in general. They're certainly seen as sort of providing key intel to the US over the years. They're famous for it. And how on earth they had no idea this was coming is just startling, especially when they've spent so much money on their military, on their defense, high levels of training, very high capacity air defense system.
As Another concern that's come up is that this conflict could spread beyond Hamas and the Gaza strip to Hesbalah fighters in Lebanon launching an attack at the same time. Do we know anything more about that?
Well, certainly that is the concern that's got to be quite real for the US as a key ally of Israel and other nations in the region. Is that question of contagion and whether Israel feels obliged to mount some kind of wider reprisal, especially if they do trace and of this back to Iran as having supported Hamas either in the planning or the execution, or even just knowing about it in advance of this attack. And so you've got these sort of Iranian supported proxies in the region
that have long been in tussles with Israel. You mentioned Hasbella in that as well, and so you've got this sort of like complex soup of actors in the region with different kinds of alliances and sometimes acting on behalf of bigger countries these smaller proxy outfits, And that's ripe for some kind of contagion. Really, if Israel again feels that it wants to retaliate, does it push hard against Hasbela, Does that bring in Lebanon. Does that bring in Iran
through the back door? For example? What about some of the other big nations in the region who are obviously looking upon this with great concern because there's been this sort of climate, this push to really normalize ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel and to really set that region on a longer term, more stable footing, focused on sort of common goals economic growth.
Train investment. It's all gone out the window.
And so now, of course the concern is that this does spread to Iran, it draws in other countries militarily, it affects things like the supply of oil, and suddenly you've got a very, very widespread and deep conflict.
After the break, Israel's allies respond to.
The attacks.
Ruse. In recent months, Israel and Saudi Arabia have been circling around each other about a possible thaw in their relationship. Does this attack have anything to do with possibly trying to stop that from happening.
Well, certainly that's one aspect of it. You can imagine that whether that was the entail or not, it has to put that thaw off the table for now, if not indefinitely, because this is not an environment where Israel can now pursue a normalization.
With Saudi Arabia or Saudi Arabia.
In turn, those conversations were exceptionally delicate from the outset. They progressed very carefully, very slowly. The US has had a hand in that also, of course, wanting to facilitate that kind of agreement and set up that greater stability in the Middle East for the longer term. So that's been a very careful and delicate process, and it's been completely thrown off kilter by this either way. So that is one of the things that people are talking about.
Was it deliberate to basically torpedo that process once and for all? Is that a reason that Hamas did it because they knew this would be a knock on effect? Or is it just an unintended but for them probably welcome.
Side effect of it.
Whatever was the intention, it's certainly going to be the result because with Israel embroiled in a conflict for months or even longer, there's just no way that that country is going to be in a position to have those of conversations.
How has the US responded, along with its European.
Allies, well, certainly very strong statements of support for Israel.
People viser under attack orchestrated by a terrorist organization Hamas in this moment of tragedy. I want to say to them and to the world and a terrorists everywhere, if the United States stands with Israel, we will not ever fail to have their back.
The US is a key ally of Israel, has for many many years supported it militarily, had to role obviously in the development and even now the maintenance of the Iron Dome Air defense shield over Israel. So very much strong statements of support. They're moving some of their military assets closer to the region, some of their warships and so on, and that's to send a very clear signal also,
we're here where President, we're involved, We're watching. We don't want this to escalate, but we could act if needed. And you can imagine, you know, in the back channel sense very much urging caution on the part of everybody here, not wanting it to extend to other countries, but also for the US the difficult question of not wanting to get drawn in directly militarily if it can help it. We've seen very much in recent years a high allergy by the US to have its own military assets involved
around the world. We saw that with the invasion of Ukraine, where the US has strongly supported Ukraine, sent a lot of military kit, but not wanted its own boots on the ground. We've seen it in the chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. Also in recent years. There's no appetite in the US politically to get involved militarily in another conflict around the world. So it's a very delicate dance for the US here. They need to show strong
support for Israel. They need to potentially bulk up some of the military and financial aid that might be coming to Israel in this moment, but they probably don't want to be drawn in directly in terms of their own military assets.
When we come back. Could the attacks ultimately cause Netanyahu his job? Ras Eliam talked about how difficult life is in Gaza. Netan Yahoo has urged civilians to leave Gaza, but can they just leave? Is that even possible?
It's extremely difficult.
Movement in and out of Gaza has been restricted for years. There were times when people could go into Israel and back, for example, to work, but that's all being cut off, and so the ability to go anywhere from that tiny strip of land is very difficult. Do you attempt some kind of journey outward by sea? Where do you escape to even if you could, And that's been one of the reasons that that quality of life there is deteriorate it because it's just people packed in amongst each other
in high density housing with nowhere else to go. And so while he's urging people to leave, they frankly just don't have very many options.
You said at the start of our conversation that Israelis were setting aside their differences and coming together to face this attack. But this also poses real danger for Netanyahu and his government in the future, doesn't it.
Well, it does, as you say.
Right now, HiT's a moment of high unity inside Israel. They're talking about even forming a unity government, which is something they've not managed to achieve through many, many fraud elections. And the mood is just very much were one in this.
But of course there are those big questions again around such a fundamental failure of defense, no advance warning, the high level of civilian casualties in this, and there are going to be a lot of question asked about that as time goes on, and there were big divisions inside Israel, as we talked about before this moment, big protests against Netanyahu and some of the legal changes he was trying to make. So the question is does this become his goldimere moment?
In essence, of.
Course, she was the leader of Israel from nineteen sixty nine to nineteen seventy four, when, of course you had another war, the Young Kipill War in nineteen seventy three, when Israel was also caught by surprise. In that case it was Syria and Egypt, and there are a lot of recriminations for that.
In the end, it's cost her her job.
And so that is sort of some of the parallels that may inevitably be drawn at some point down the track. Is this going to be a similar moment for Netanyahu? Will his position be seen as untenable in the longer run? Simply again because of the way that this happened for Israel, an extent to which the country was caught by surprise. One thing that Benjamin Nettnawhu stressed frequently in all his campaigning, in all his rhetoric, was that Israel was very much
safer under his watch. He talked about it endlessly. He talked about the money that was being spent on the military. It really was his manner and his promise to the Israeli people. And so as the dust settles on this, you can imagine that some of that blamed directly will come back to him simply because of the comments that he made.
Ras.
The situation in Israel is moving pretty rapidly. But when you look ahead in really the days and weeks to come, what are you watching for.
We're watching for the potential that it does morph into a ground war against the Gaza Strip and Hamas. There the potential for it to spread in the region and take in either Iran or some of the proxies of Iran. Those are sort of the biggest immediate concerns that you know,
the world in general must have about this moment. Does this morph into a broader conflict in a very complex region of the world, And do we see Israeli barking on a long and complex ground wall in the Garzastrip area and really try and crush the mass once and for all. Those have to be the two sort of biggest immediate questions about where this might go.
Rouz, thanks for taking the time to speak with me. Thank you, thanks for listening to us here at the Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. For more shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen. And we'd love to hear from you. Email us questions or comments to Big Take at Bloomberg dot net. Our senior producer Katherine Fink produced this episode. It was engineered by our supervising producer Vicky Virgalina. Our
original music was composed by Leo Sidron. I'm wes Kasova. We'll be back tomorrow with another Big Take.