I'm wes Kosova today on the Big Take. Bloomberg's Israel Bureau chief Ethan Brunner is here again from Tel Aviv to tell us about the latest developments in the Israel Hamas war. Even a lot has happened since we spoke last week, and right now it seems that a lot of the focus is on this effort to try to free as many of the hostages Hamas took as possible. Can you tell us what's happening with that?
Right now?
There are numerous and very delicate negotiations underway all through the country of Katar, which plays host to a bunch of Hamas leaders, political leaders, and also it's just been spending a lot of money in Gaza through Hamas in recent years with Israeli acceptance.
So the attempt here is focused.
Largely on though we don't know how many, but some dozens of foreigners and dual nationals American, French, British, Chinese Filipinos.
Many of them are dual nationals.
That they're Israelis who come from somewhere, but a bunch of them were visiting or working here in the case of the Thie workers, for example, so there was a release last Friday of.
A mother and her daughter, Americans from Chicago.
The mother is that an American Israeli who had been living in the States.
And on Monday, Hamas released two more hostages. They're both elderly women who lived on a kibbutz that Hamas attacked on October seventh.
Breaking news in the Middle East where two hostages taken by Hamas were just released. It comes three days after Hamas released the first hostages, two Americans and a deal broker by Cutters government.
I think that this attempt is quite significant because I think that it is causing the Israelis to slow down in what they're doing in terms of their ground invasion, and it is a reason for foreign countries to really have an influence here, particular the United States, and I think broadly the US is trying to get Israel to think calmly about the situation that it is in, and
it is a very difficult task. The fury, the humiliation, the anger, the sense of betrayal that pervades Israel since October seventh attack.
It's overwhelming, and the military.
Which was not where it needed to be to save its citizens, wants to get revenge. They don't like to talk about the word revenge. It feels ugly, but it's inevitable that that's partly what's at stake here. When President Biden came here last week, he came with a very reassuring manner, a hug literally a hug to people who were relatives of victims, but also kind of a broad hug for the whole country, which meant a lot to the people here.
Not earlier this morning, I returned from Israel. They tell me I'm the first American president to travel there during the war. I met with the Prime Minister and members of his cabinet, and most movingly, I met with Israelis who had personally live through horrific horror. Are the attacked by a mass on the seventh of October. As I told the families of Americans being held captive by a maas, we're pursuing every avenue to bring their loved ones home.
As president, there is no higher priority for me than the safety of American soel hostage.
It'll also allowed him and Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln to have an impact on the conversations that are going on the highest level. So all of that is partly has to do with these hostages, and partly has to do with the American concern that this conflict could spread from Gaza to the north and Lebanon.
Even do we know how many hostages there are alive now who were taken by Hamas into Gaza.
We don't know exactly.
The Israelis speak of a number in the two hundred and twenties now, but I've been told reliably that that includes several dozen who are dead. That is, their people who are missing, and they believe that Hamas took their bodies into Gaza as part of a negotiation process. We know that many of them are hurt. We know that some are ill, some are elderly, There are some very small children. There is, in fact, a small group of prominent Israelis who have made the children their sole focus.
They have gotten eighty six Nobel Laureates to sign a petition. They're going to the UN Security Council. They're trying to say that we're talking about children who are three and five and seven, who will be deeply and permanently scarred unless they are taken home where they're being held in Gaza. We have been told and assume that they're distributed around Gaza Strip in order to prevent easy finding of them by Israel or anybody else.
That's what we know.
We don't really know the nature of the negotiation. We don't know what Humas is being off an exchange. We do know that the Americans wanted to link hostage freedom with aid coming in through the Rafah crossing. The Israelis were not in favor of that. That wasn't quite done that way. But clearly they'll be offered some kind of form of a ceasefire or something to do with less aggression against them.
It one has to assume.
You mentioned earlier that these negotiations have caused Israel to pause for a moment, and the US and the European Union are also pressing Israel to delay the ground invasion.
The big news here this morning is a lot of talk in the Israeli media's on the television and all the leading newspapers that the ground offensive may be delayed for an indetermined period of time.
Both for the hostages but also to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza. Is that message being received, so.
I think it is being received.
I would say that we expected around invasion to have begun already some days ago. In fact, I was being told reliably on Friday that it was due to start that night, and then when it became clear that there was about to be a hostage release, I was told again reliably that it's been called off for that to happen. I think at the time they assumed they'd be more than two people released. So yes, we're quite sure that there has been a rethinking of the ground operation.
There are numerous causes for this.
First of all, it's going to be an extremely dangerous thing for the Israeli troops to do. Second of all, if in fact huge numbers of people are killed, it will increase the chances of.
His Balla entering in the fray in the North.
Third of all, just the idea of those many deaths is bound to cause Israel problems with its relations with other Arab countries that it has been cultivating so closely, And the United States is telling Israel, you know, you also need to ask yourself what happens the day after. There's another thing going on, which is that the Israelis feel they need to send a message to his Ballah and like minded militias that are around backed, which is to say we can play the same kind of game
you can. We live in this region, we're not afraid to act by its rules. At the same time, Israel wants to send a message to the US, the UK, Germany and France and Canada that says we're not like them, We're like you.
We're humane, we care about people's lives.
That's why we're trying to move people out. So this dual message, which was in deep contradiction and which is more important, we don't know.
And at the same time that the ground in vision has been paused or halted for the moment the bombing has intensified and also spread.
This it has, so this is partly a desire to maybe delay and limit what will be a ground operation. If they can take care of business from the air and long range artillery, then they will have less.
Of a need to go in on the ground.
And I think that what they began to see in recent days is some sense of Hamas' weakness. By the way, Hamas is still shooting missiles at Israel and rockets, so whatever damage they've done, they haven't eliminated it.
And it's quite remarkable. Even here in Tel Aviv.
Two or three times a day a missile is incoming from Gaza. So no matter all the things that they've done to sort of limit the ability of Hamas to operate, it hasn't eliminated it at all.
Is there any concern that the intensive bombing that Israel is conducting in Gaza could potentially harm the hostages?
Of course there is.
Hamas has repeatedly asserted that X number of hostages is already dead from the bombings by Israel. Most people are skeptical of what they've said they have. In some cases, given the names and ID numbers of those they say are dead, some suspect that they probably brought them in dead. And this is a propaganda effort on their parts, because actually these are very important cards for them.
To play, and they're likely to want to keep them safe.
But I mean, it's perfectly possible, absolutely that some have died from these bombings. And I will say that from the beginning, Israel has sent a message, which is that nothing is going to stop us from doing what we have to do. Now, every day that goes by from the trauma of October seventh, the slightly less steely everything feels here right. The idea that well, we have to think about this in broader terms rather than just nothing else is going to get in our way. We are
going to destroy Hamas. That is beginning to shift. People do not want to die here. They do also want to think about what the future is. There is a debate underway now about how to handle this situation. At the same time, people are deeply, deeply troubled by what it means to have such a savage force, which the force was on the seventh of October on its board hundreds of meters from them, apparently training to do it again.
So it is. It is a dilemma, there's no doubt about it.
And the bombing is not only in Gaza but against his Bellah, and there has even been bombing in Syria.
Yes, Israel is worried about its northern front, both his Bella and Palestinian groups that are in southern Lebanon and in Syria.
That's right. There have been exchanges.
On the border and a little bit more deeply into both countries in recent days. Here again there's a debate within the Israeli security and military community. There are those who have said, you know what, this is our opportunity. We can't live under this kind of threat. Let's take care of the North and the South at the same time. And the United States and others inside here have urged Israel not to do that.
It's going to be a little hard to get it all done at once.
Focus on Gaza and what you do in the North, just a tit for tat.
Don't go aggressively against Hamallah.
Just make clear to them that you're not going to put up with any kind of attacks, and you'll attack back in proportion. And that has been what's happened and what you don't know exactly what the Americans have promised Israel, but it seems that they have said to them, if you act like that, you can count on us in the North if something truly terrible happens.
And the United States says we.
Know has sent to carry your fleets into the eastern Mediterranean and has increased also patriot missiles and troops.
After the break, the continuing after shocks of the Gaza hospital bombing, even another source of great tension over the past week has been trying to figure out who is responsible for the bombing of the hospital in Gaza.
We're talking about the Alakhali Baptist Hospital in Gaza City, and when an explosion occurred, mostly in the parking lot of that where a lot of people were sheltering, the Hamas Health Ministry issued a statement saying that hundreds were dead end that it was from an Israeli attack, and then the Israelis at the time said, look, we're unaware that it's us, but we'll look into it.
And then within maybe.
Twelve hours or so, they issued a bunch of evidence that it was not they, that they for example, showed how it came from behind the hospital from a failed Islamic jihad shooting toward Israel, and they even released an audio recording between two Hamas operatives saying it.
Looks like it was us, it doesn't look like it was them.
And now I think the Pentagon and other Western governments have looked at the details end of all come to the conclusion that it was indeed not Israel that did it. But of course, you know, the assertion that it was Israel canceled the meeting that President Biden was due to have with Arab leaders in Amman, Jordan after he left Israel, and it created enormous anger on the streets of the Muslim world, so it's a terrible problem.
Part of the reason that the US and the EU are trying to forestall this ground invasion of Gaza is to get humanitarian aid into the Gaza strip. What is the situation now on the ground there for civilians who are living there, and what is the latest in trying to get that aid to them.
Some dozens of trucks have gone in.
This is a live picture of the Rougher crossing where the first aid trucks finally making their way from the Egyptian side of the crossing into Gaza, where they will be inspected.
It is a very difficult situation for the people on the ground.
I have to tell you that journalists are not able to get in from the Israeli side or the Egyptian side, so we don't have anyone on the ground. Our correspondent is in phone conversation with people there who he himself is from Gaza, but.
Not in it right now.
I don't think any of us would want to find ourselves in that situation. It's an extremely threatening and upsetting one. They've been asked and told by Israel to leave large sections of the northern part of the Gaza strip and go south, and many of them are forty to a house now and that sort of thing. So it's very difficult. I think people are deeply uncomfortable and afraid. People are
being killed in large numbers. It's five thousand people and according to the Hamas health authorities, most of them are women, children's civilians.
Do you think that more convoys of aid will be allowed in to come through the Egypt border crossing?
It seems so. It seems that more will come in.
But this is a very up and down, very unclear situation, and sometimes we look at the camera looking at the Rafah crossing gate to see whether anything's coming in or out, and sometimes yes and sometimes no.
How does this advance from here given all of these various tensions and difficulties trying to figure out the situation.
I think that's a good question, Wes. I don't think it's obvious what it means. They remain firm that their goal is the dismantling of Hamas's military and governing infrastructure, So you know how you define that, obviously is pretty wide open. What they want to do is create a situation that Hamas can no longer be in charge in Gaza. They want someone else in charge. They want to demilitarize the Gaza strip, and it's a heck of a job
to do. You know, the place is quite well armed to its teeth, and there are all these warrens and alleys and tunnels and so forth. And I think we all know from Vietnam, from South Lebanon, from Iraq, from Afghanistan, that urban combat does not tend to end up as the victors being those who've arrived from the outside. It's the people who live there who outlast. And the Israelis
have experienced at numerous times. And so I think the idea is that the Americans are saying to them, listen, we hear you, we feel your pain.
But think hard about this.
And this is a process that's underway hour by hour here. Still, it is a very fluid situation.
With when we talk about this idea of the war escalating and pulling in other countries, what exactly does that look like, what nations might come into this conflict. Is there an appetite among some of these other nations to actually become part of this conflict?
If Lebanon got involved in a war with Israel, it will have been dragged in bych Isbellah. Egypt does not want to fight against Israel. But in Sinai you do have isis actors, you do have various carecharacters that are anti Israel.
And you know, one of the things Israel wants to do is sort of move some.
Of the Gausans into Sinai while they do their thing in Gaza, and the egypt Is saying, no way, We're not doing that.
We're not letting you do that to us.
So I don't think there's any appetite there. And I actually don't think at the moment that Iran wants to go to war with Israel either. So that's why it's so complicated. It's just Israel against these militias, and it's a tough battle.
When we come back, how Joe Biden's Oval Office address was received in Israel. Ethn You mentioned earlier the effect that Joe Biden's visit to Israel had had. He then gave an address to the American people talking about the US standing by Israel. What sort of effect has that had in Israel, especially because the US Congress, of course, because of the politics, has been frozen and isn't able to give the aid that Biden wants to give to Israel.
I'm not sure that the Israelis have focused closely on the dysfunction in Congress, but they certainly felt incredible gratitude for what Biden did and said when he came here, and then what he said in the Oval Office, and his request for fourteen billion dollars an additional and military aid for this country.
In Israel, we must make sure that they have what they need to protect their people today and always. The security package I'm sending to Congress and asking Congress to do is an unprecedented commitment to Israel's security that will sharpen Israel's qualitative military edge, which we've committed to the qualitative military edge. We're going to make sure Iron Dome
continued to guard disguise over Israel. We're going to make sure other hostile actors in the region know that Israel is stronger than ever and prevent this conflict from spreading.
People are unbelievably grateful. I mean people.
I just yesterday got my haircut at the end of the day and my barber said Trump wouldn't have said those things, Not even Trump would have said those things that Biden he is amazing.
And even the nature of that relationship in the trust that Israel has put in the US also lets the US tell Israel, hey, you have to slow down. In Israelis will listen in a way that perhaps they wouldn't listen to others.
Yes, the Israelis understand that those carriers and the Mediterranean and that all of that equipment, all of that aid that the United States is bringing and saying we're going to help you make.
Sure that his blood doesn't enter this war. This is not a joke. This is serious stuff.
And that means that when the Americans make requests, they these guys are much more willing to yield to those requests. And I have to say that Biden and Blincoln and Lloyd Austin apparently have been not ordering anybody around totally in.
A kind of big brother mode.
You know, we feel your pain, we know how awful this is, we know how terrible Hummas and his Bellah have been towards you. We're here to help, and now that we're here to help, you might want to do X or Y. That's how they're handling it. And the Israelis are very appreciative.
And yet the ground invasion you think is still inevitable.
I mean, it's the freatest invasion the word invasion that might be a problem. There's no doubt in my mind that ground troops will enter Gaza, There's no doubt, but I don't know in what fashion, at what length, at duration numbers. I think all of that is still being heavily debated. And that's why as they examine the air war and the effect of the air where they try to figure out what they might have to do on the ground, they can't, based on what I have been told,
not go in at all. I mean, there are those who are saying it, but it seems to me a very very small minority, and you know, it could change, but I can't believe they won't go in on some level, in some fashion relatively soon.
Is there any conversation about what would happen after Israel moved in, say they are able to eliminate Hamas in Gaza, what comes next?
Right?
Well, I think that's part of the whole problem that the United States is trying.
To persuade the Israelis to think very hard.
One of the things is that historically Israel has not wanted to destroy Hamas, thinking better Haramas than chaos, that's been the argument. But now they feel that Hamas is such an evil force, and so a stead set in favor of killing Israeli is that they have no choice.
And I think the Americans have accepted that. But remember this that Natanyau has not been very helpful to the Palestinian authority, the other force in the Palestinian politics which holds sway in the West Bank, and so I think that the United States sees this as an opportunity to nudge the Israelis toward a more supportive stand of the more moderate Palestinian forces in the West Bank and maybe
bring them in to Gaza. I mean, look, it's a bit of a pipe dream because it's not a very powerful organization, the Palestinian authority right now, but you know, somebody has to take charge. Israel doesn't want to be there and nobody else wants to be there, so it needs to be a Palestinian ruling of some kind.
Ethan, thanks so much for speaking with me again today.
Good to talk to you West Take care.
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