Indra rolls out the red kopet for the G twenty summit to New Delhi and Mijawa leaders have started to arrive in the Indian capital.
G twenty leaders are meeting in India this weekend amid considerable divisions over the war in Ukraine and other key global issues.
World leaders who gathered at the Group of twenty meeting in New Delhi last week had plenty to discuss the war in Ukraine, of course, but also energy, climate change, and concerns about the health of the global economy. But arguably the real center of attention in India was India itself and the rising influence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi
in global affairs. With the world's largest population one point four billion people and a fast growing economy, India under Modi is seeking to become a global power with friends in the developing and developed world, and one that doesn't have to take a clear side in the rivalry between East and West.
What you did, I mean that was a much more confident India, particularly under Mody, that's very very self assured and very confident in the direction they're going in.
If you look at India's foreign policy in the last fifty to sixty years, India's always tried to claim that it's a champion of the developing world.
That's Bloomberg's Dan ten Kate and Sudi Rajhsen. They're here to talk about India's international clout and how Mody is solidifying his own power at home and abroad ahead of elections in India next year. I'm west Kasova today on the big take India puts itself front and center on the world stage. Sudi, this was a very big moment for India's leader, and he had really made this summit sort of a showcase for India itself.
Not only for India itself. I mean, not only was he trying to project India abroad, but he was trying to project himself.
Internally as well.
And that is a big thing because India goes into elections next year. And the important thing to note oubt here is that the government or India's economy is not doing that great. There are issues about economy, the issues
about inflation, about unemployment. But what we are getting to see of what we are you know, witnessing, is this entire foreign policy kind of trying to trump internal issues and that seems to be a very well thought out plan and method that the Prime Minister is trying to take as he goes into the elections next year.
And Dan it seemed that all of the different world tensions, and there are so many of them, were on display at this meeting.
It was quite an intense weekend. The build up to the G twenty was also interesting. It was very uncertain going into it whether Mody could actually reach a deal, and in fact, you know, we heard from many people that China was trying to thwart any sort of victory for Mody. Xiji Ping didn't even go to the meeting, kind of shunning Mody, and that was just seen as trying to take away from his big moment on the
world stage. You know, China and India have sparred over lots of things, including a border dispute, but more broadly, you know, there's this question of who is the major spokesperson for the global South, and that turned into you know, a massive storyline at the G twenty over the weekend. Any G twenty normally has a community k that's hashed
out for months ahead of time. There's people called chirpas from each country that get together separately and they figure out all the things they're going to say in this range is climate change and financing and how to deal with debt in the emerging world, the state of the economy, things like that. The last two years have really been focused on Ukraine and after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and
how are we going to describe that? And that turned out to be the big sticking point on this one, And the result was also somewhat surprising in that regard.
Leaders at the G twenty summit in Delhi have issued a joint declaration despite why differences over the war in Ukraine. Unlike last year's Bali communicay, this year's document does not mention Russia by name.
And this communicator that was eventually agreed upon, I mean, it was criticized by Ukraine in particular for weathering down the language, but I think it's also important to understand it in the context of trying to win over the global South. You saw the US and Joe Biden in
particularly emphasize a just peace. And one of the criticisms of the Emerging World is that China has basically taken the narrative for peace with Chiju and Pink's Peace Blueprint earlier this year, and you see the G seven trying to take that back, saying we're not for perpetual war here,
we actually want to solve this thing. And the other major theme was just agreeing to something that would give Mody a win, because the US very much sees India as a counterweight to China, and India is a willing sort of partner in trying to block Chinese interests in the Indo Pacific, and if this summit ended with a black eye for Modi, that would have been very damaging
in that regard. So what they essentially did was they watered down the language on Ukraine in order to give India a win against China in kind of a bigger game.
So to speak.
There's certainly a lot of people who think the US and its allies folded, particularly on Ukraine, that this thing was a mess. The reality is that the Group of Twenty, the G twenty, is the only international body where you have the US sent it salities, the G seven, and other emerging world powers including China and Russia, sitting down
in the same forum. If they didn't agree on this, if they couldn't find consensus then this body would fall apart and you wouldn't have a forum where countries could hash out and try and come to some sort of understanding. And I guess the question is, you know, is that even worth doing anymore? Is it worth having a body like this where they can do these things even if
nobody gets what they want. I mean, you saw Russia thinking this was a good deal, and you saw the G seven thinking this was a good deal, and you know, that's pretty rare. That was one of the most interesting elements of this.
SUDI. The uscs India as an important partner, and one of the things that you've written about is how India has managed to very carefully thread a lot of different needles by having other countries like Russia also see India as a partner and has managed to maintain good relationships with different countries where there are a lot of tensions between them.
What we see as in this foreign policy is that it's trying to be friends with the US, with the West, in particular Germany, France, where it's looking for high end technology defense technology like submarines, fighter engines, and at the same point of time being friends with Russia, buying oil from Russia buying weapons from Russia, and in fact, we had the Russian Lavrov saying that Russia has going to honor all defense contracts with India. We haven't seen India
saying that Russian defense contracts are being canceled. So yes, I mean, it's trying to play both sides.
It's done well so far, but there are importables and there could be problems down the road.
India is very reliant on Russia weapons and they have been just for decades. Essentially, if they don't have Russian weapons, they will not have weapons to fight against China. It's going to take years and years for India's military to wean off Russian weapons. If they take a really hard line on India, that will only hurt India's capacity to go after China and serve as a deterre to China. You know, the US is playing a bigger game here, India is playing a bigger game here, and that bigger
game is essentially China. And you know, of course they want to stand up for you and principles, and I think that came across and they communicate. But at the same time, it's impossible to look at this outcome and not see that they have their eyes on China here.
After the break, can India maintain this uneasy balance with China? Sudi. We've talked quite a bit about the relationship between India and China and the tension there. What exactly is the tension between those two countries.
Well, I mean, if you look at the tensions that are several. One you have at the border, you know, along with the Humalayas. It's an unmarked border and it's been there for the last seventy audios ever since both countries became independent and came to be in their present shape.
The other space that's playing out is the trade relationships. India is heavily heavily dependent on China. In fact, India claims itself to be the pharmacy of the world. But to be the pharmacy of the world, it does need a lot of stuff from China. It cannot be the pharmacy of the world if it doesn't get the raw materials from China. Or along with it comes the very high trade deficit that India has with China, and you know,
cheap electronics that India kind of imports from China. Those things are playing out at the same point of time, which is leading the other So far, it has been the border dispute that's kind of been the lead in all this while the others are following. But they're very much there on the table and playing out very hard.
Dan As Sudi says, there's tension with China and yet India needs China. How has Mody kept that relationship from boiling over.
A lot of diplomacy. For sure, there's agreements along the border. The border has been relatively quiet of late. That's one part of it. We saw Moody meet with she ahead of the G twenty. A lot of people looked at that and said, well, maybe she will show up.
Now China has confirmed that president's seating being will not attend the G twenty summit this weekend. Premiate Leedsiang will be going for the meeting in New Delhi instead.
You know the fact that she shunned the meeting was definitely a sign that things are not very you know, it's hard to imagine she not showing up in Brazil, for instance, So it was definitely seen as something where he could have easily gone if he wanted to. It's a tricky relationship. It's the world's two most populous countries.
India is trying to keep out Chinese investment that they view as a security threat, particularly with data and mobile phone apps, and trying to ban those, even going much harder than the US has gone in that regard. So the tensions exist, but yes, they certainly need a lot of stuff from China if India is going to realize its growth potential over the next ten twenty years.
So do we hear a lot about how China has tried to court other countries, especially in the Global South, and bring them more toward China and away from the US. And Mody has been doing something similar, trying to make friends with many other countries. What is the strategy behind that.
It's a strategy that we are watching, but Fia not from baby which way's headed. If you look at India's foreign policy in the last fifty to sixty years, Indias always tried to claim that it's a champion of the developing world, and there's a huge history between India and the non online movement and the developing world. We see Prime Minism Moody kind of pivoting back to that entire narrative.
One of the reasons what one can understand from the ground is that the Prime Minisa is trying to reclaim India's old position, and that's because that gives India a lot of theft with the other nations. And also it's also a policy to counter China, because if we look at China the way that it's unfolded the Belton Road Initiative in Africa, in the developing world, it clearly outran the West and India, so it's an effort to kind of climb back to reclaim lost territory.
Dan For several years, Jijenping has been pretty open about making China an alternative power center to the US. Does MODI have a similar goal with India to be its own power center.
Not another power center per se? I think what China is trying to do is create different norms and values in the world that aren't US focused or US aligned. They often talk about the rules based order and they say, you know, well, who came up with these rules? These aren't our rules, These are your rules.
You know.
They'll often try and isolate the G seven and say you're just seven countries. There's more than two hundred countries in the world, and most of them are with US, and that's really what the US was trying to counter and where they see India playing a major role. India and the US the values are much more aligned than the US and China, for instance. I mean, now India comes under a lot of criticism, justly for the treatment of religious minorities that we've seen under the Modi administration.
There's definitely issues there, But all in all, India is a democracy. It does have, you know, a much more vibrant press than China and other very repressive countries, and all in all, they share very similar values. And if you look at the Quad in particular, which is one of the groups that the US and India are involved in with Australia and Japan, those are democracies in Asia that are designed to set down rules of the road
and ensure stability in that regard. When the US looks at the world, they say, you know, do we want China as the main actor kind of convincing all these other countries in Africa and the rest of the so called Global South to align more closely with Chinese values, or do we want them aligning with India's values? And India is much closer to where the G seven is.
And so if the US can prop up India as the champion of the global South, ultimately they see that leading to a more democratic world, more free speech, more of these things that ultimately are more aligned with the values of the US and its allies.
When we come back, Modi looks to stay in power for years to come. So do We've talked a lot about India and China and India and the US, But what about India's relationship with the EU, because there's also a lot of tension there.
Well, definitely, there is a lot of tension, and historically India is veryy, very so to say of the European Union. Going back into history, in a way, India has always been committing of walking into any one block wholeheartedly. Even during the seventeen and the eighties when India was, you know, much more closer to Russia, India did keep on saying that, you know, it's a non aligned country while it was
dependent on Russia completely and went along happily. Today India depending on Europe, on America and of course Russia for weapons, from for oil. But at the same point of time kind of saying that you know this we need to do because of X, Y and Z reasons. It never doesn't want to kind of come out openly. So I guess that's that's the kind of foreign policy that India wants to follow.
I think it comes down to just strategic self interest on the part of all these countries, India as well. India. You know, we met a lot with ministers in Delhi over the last two days and other officials. But you know, if you're going to bring up to them China plus one strategies and how companies look at the world, you know that that is not a popular phrase in Delhi. They don't want to hear that. They want to say, like, India has its own value proposition, companies should come here
because we have demographics on our side. We have a young population that's going to be young for a while. We've been emerging middle class. And you look at China, it's economy slowing, it's aging. India has its own independent foreign policy, and I think that's also what is very clear that India is saying, we're going to play by
our rules here. Ultimately, if you're sitting in Europe, yes you have problems with India, but when you look at the world where it's going, who's going to have these big opportunities over the next ten twenty years, and who aligns more with your values. That's how they can do business with the other. So India is very very confident at the moment. I was in Delhi about a decade ago. Now it was not the case then, trust me, it was.
What you're dealing with now is a much more confident India, particularly under Moodi, that's very very self assured and very confident in the direction they're going in. And Europe and the US they do have issues with India, but overall, you know, they really see an opportunity to align with India and bolster India as a counterway to China.
Sudy. You mentioned domestic considerations earlier, and India has an election coming up next year. How much of Modi's strategy has to do with playing to his own voters at home, I.
Would say a lot. If you look back, India was supposed to host the g twenty a year ago, and you know, India kind of went back and said that we will do it, not now, but a year later. It's very clever politics on part of crime in the cimolity. It is being done with a very specific motive that he wants the entire country to know, you know, our G.
Twenty is happening, and in between kind of blow the fact that it is a rotating presidency while projecting himself as this leader who has been able to get the G twenty and therefore it's a very big thing for the country.
Well, I'll just say, in Delhi you could not go basically twenty feet without seeing Mody's face on a poster. So there were clear undertones for the election. The opposition is trying to make the election close. They are uniting together, which is necessary given Mody's utter dominance of Indian politics over the past decade. You know, they are uniting and trying to houst him. But it's still going to be
a toll order. It's very likely that Mody's party will win again, even if it has a reduced majority in Parliament. So much like Shishimping just extended his decade in power, Mody is likely to do that as well, and he could be in power even innother ten years. There's no obvious person to take over from him. Now for the world, what that means is there to be dealing with mody for a very long time.
Dan Sudi, great talking with you, Thanks for taking the time, Thank you, Thanks for listening to us here at The Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. For more shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen. And we'd love to hear from you. Email us questions or comments to Big Take at Bloomberg dot net. The supervising producer of The Big Take is Vicky Virgalina. Our senior producer is Catherine Fink. Frederica Romanello
is our producer. Our associate producer is Zenobsidiki. Hilde Garcia is our engineer. Our original music was composed by Leo Sidrin. I'm West Kasova. We'll be back on Monday with another Big Take. Have a great weekend.