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President Joe Biden is in the middle of a defining international crisis in his presidency, and it's testing the limits of his ability to wield the US's power and global influence. Last week, he gave a speech outlining a proposal to bring that crisis to an end.
I want to give an update of my efforts to end the crisis in Gosam. For the past several months, my negotiators of foreign policy, intelligence community alike have been relentlessly focused, not just on a ceasefire that would inevitably be fragile and temporary, but on a durable end of the war.
That proposal, he said, came from the Israeli government, but Biden's speech also appeared to put pressure on Israel in a new way, and in the following days it became clear that aspects of this speech took them by surprise.
I think known for more than a century that peace in the Middle East is not a sort of simple task.
That's Bloomberg White House correspondent Justin Sink.
When you talk to people at the White House, they say, you know, this was a genuine moment where he thought that peace was potentially in hand.
Now was that wishful thinking? It's hard to say.
It was a notable shift in Biden's approach to the conflict and to his relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and it's raised questions about just how much leverage Biden has in the Middle East, as his dreams of negotiating peace have crashed into a harsh reality. Today, on the show What's Happened Since President Biden put the weight of the US presidency behind the latest ceasefire proposal, how Israel and Hamas are reacting, and what's at stake if things
don't go his way? From Bloomberg's Washington Bureau, This is the Big Take DC Podcast. I'm Salia mosen.
Right.
In the aftermath of the October seventh attack, President Biden made his support for Israel sort of central part of his political identity.
That's Bloomberg White House correspondent Justin Sink.
He became the first US president to traveled to Israel during a wartime. He really vocally offered support to Israel, both sort of in a political embrace but also tangibly through shipping arms and assistants to Israel. Pushed Congress hard to pass a package that offered tens of billions of
dollars of support. But even from early on, Biden said, you know, he was hopeful that Israel wouldn't make the mistakes that the US made in the aftermath of September eleventh, and that their sort of counter offensive wouldn't be excessive.
But as the war has dragged on, Israeli forces have killed thousands of Palestinians civilians in their offensive on Gaza, and there have.
Been high profile incidences the bombing that killed AID workers working for the World Central Kitchen. More recently some bombings in Rafa. The White House really warned Israel publicly and even froze certain large bomb shipments that were going to Israel and said, you know, we don't think there's a way to effectively use these bombs without there being massive civilian deaths in Rafa. So the White House was saying at that point, we want to see restraint there.
But just last night an Israeli airstrike on a school that had been turned into a shelter killed dozens of people. And last week a fire broke out following an Israeli airstrike, killing and injuring dozens, including children. What do we know about how Biden is talking about the Israel Hamas conflict inside the White House? Is there anything that he's saying privately that he's not saying publicly.
I think that the President has really tried to express this idea that he is being more effective in protecting civilians and keeping the violence from spreading further than it might readily be a parent.
You could hear Biden in his speech on Friday hammering home this idea that he's pushing Israel towards peace and the.
People of Israel. Let me say this as someone who's had a lifelong commitment to Israel, as the only American president's ever gone to Israel at a time of war, As someone who just sent the US forces to directly defend Israel when it was attacked by Iran. I asked you to take a step back. I think what will happen if this moment is lost.
In that speech, Biden presented a proposal that he said came from Israeli officials.
In essence, it was an Israeli proposal.
That's Ethan Brunner, Bloomberg's Israel bureau chief.
The problem was that the language that he referred to, the way talked about it angered the right in this country and made it think that the Israeli government had agreed to a deal which would not carry out the war's aims, meaning the destruction of Hamas.
Biden presented this three part plan, which would start with a temporary ceasefire, exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and humanitarian aid. In its second phase, it's meant to pave the way for a permanent end to the war. And Biden steered into that framing.
That's been the focus of durable end of this war.
So that created a storm here and Prime Minister Nitanyaho issued two statements on Saturday, unusual because it's the Jewish Sabbath, saying that that's not right, that Israel is not going to allow any deal that doesn't utterly dismantle Hamas's ability to rule as a political entity, to carry out any military activity, and to pose a threat again to Israel.
So it's kind of complicated in the sense that I don't think that President Biden lied, but I do think that the way it was presented made the right of this country nervous, forced the government to come to the defense of what it had offered. I think people overestimate the ability of an American president to force sides that are not compatible.
To a deal.
And this isn't a typical diplomatic negotiation between two countries or parties. It's Israel and the US cutter Egypt, and then a group that's been liable to terrorist organization by the US and European Union.
So how much leverage does the White House have and what can it do now to keep this proposal on the table that's coming up. President Biden has known Israeli Prime Minister Benjamint and Yahu for decades. They first met when Biden was a junior senator in his forties and Netan Yahoo was working in the Israeli embassy in Washington. Joe Biden's administration supports a two state solution.
All this would create the conditions for a different future, a better future for the Palestinian people, one of self determination, dignity, security, and freedom.
Netan Yahoo, however, does not.
They are not compatible, especially politically. But President Biden is a great believer in the state of Israel, a great supporter of the idea of a Jewish state here, and he has always, certainly from the beginning of this war, believed that the best way to guide Israel's conduct in the war was as a close friend.
American officials have met with Israel's war cabinet. Justin Sink told us the two governments have been in near constant contact. So when it came to Biden's speech last week, Netan Yahoo would have known it was coming.
But there's been reporting from ABC News that he was surprised at the framing that Biden used and sort of the idea that a deal was close.
Because it's not clear that a deal really is close. That has to do in large part with the makeup of the Israeli government.
Well, I think it's important to understand about how Israel's government works is it's not like the US, where there's an administration that all sort of their ores are all rowing in the same direction. It's a parliamentary democracy where there are a coalition government built up of different parties
and people with different opinions. And so you can have aids or lawmakers that are very close to Nanya, who very crucial to his effort, who are not on the same page about what the best course of action.
Is the Israeli government is a complicated situation. You have Prime Minister in Natanyahu, who is on the left flank of his ruling coalitions, and he's hardly a left winger. So you have some hard right nationalists who do not want to give anything to the Palestinian as they're opposed to any Palestittian state.
They would like Israel to be all.
Of the occupied territories plus what's Israel today, and the idea that there would be any sort of yielding and a possible end to the war early is anathema to them. The honest truth is it is kind of an athema to Prime Minister Nittanya, who as well, he.
Does not want to end the war.
The difference between Nittaya who and those to his right is not that enormous. It's just that he is willing to offer a kind of rhetorical space for this deal to create negotiations, and the ministers to his right don't trust him to let that happen, and so therefore they're not willing for even the talk of that to go forward.
And a group of those hardliners in the Israeli government have said if Netanyahu went forward with the deal, they'd resign and dissolve the governing coalition. Meanwhile, a different group of centrist ministers have also threatened to quit the government if a deal is not reached.
If he pushes forward and the government has toppled, Israel before October seventh was cycling through elections that are really kind of historic clip and the potential for political instability there is really high.
Netanya who has said he cannot accept a deal that doesn't allow for the elimination of Hamas, and Hamas has said they can't accept a deal that doesn't ensure a permanent ceasefire and the withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Gaza.
We have two incompatible goals.
The goal of Hamas is to get rid of Israeli troops and to return to power. The goal of Israel is to get rid of Hamas's position of being in power in Gaza. So these are completely incompatible goals.
At this point, it seems like for all intents and purposes that the president Bind proposal is, if not dead, very much on life support. If you talk to any diplomat about these sort of high stakes negotiations, they'll say it's a million No's until it's a yes. And so if there's any reason for.
Hope, it's that this raises the question what will the White House do now? As of Thursday morning, the US had signed an open letter with sixteen other countries calling for Israel and Hamas to reach a ceasefire deal that would release hostages from the group of countries.
It's hard to see areas where President Binen could really exert additional pressure here. He used the power of the billy pulpit that all presidents had and signed himself on to this proposal. And so I think we'll continue to hear from the President over the next two weeks. He's got a series of meetings with foreign leaders. The eightieth anniversary of D Day is an opportunity for him to talk about the world order and also, of course the history of World War Two, which is link an excerpt
lead with the creation of Israel. And I think he'll try to summon as much momentum as he can. But realistically, you know what, it seemed like a window of opportunity here is now seeming to shut close.
But Biden will face geopolitical and domestic consequences if the war drags on and nothing changes, I waited.
Into an issue that's been a real labatross for the president. I think signaled how badly the White House wants this
deal to come together. It's been a real dividing point, and one headed into the November's election that could cost the president in states like Michigan and Minnesota that he won very narrowly and have a young electorate, an Arab American electorate, and we saw in some of the primaries that big chunks of voters, despite the President running virtually unopposed in the Democratic primary, we're voting undecided or undeclared, and.
So that's a real coalition issue. To some extent, this.
Is already going to be sort of a central part of Joe Biden's legacy. I think that he is going to be remembered for.
His steadfast support for Israel if the.
Region descends into even more violence, even more carnage. Not only is it going to be come or remain a domestic political issue, which we've already seen, but it's going to demand his attention and it's not going to be something that he can turn away from to go, you know, do some rallies in swing states and inability to broker this deal, will, I think give his political opponents, and Donald Trump certainly has already has done this, the opportunity
to argue that a different approach and more aggressive approach might have yielded different results, and.
There are real human consequences to either or both sides backing away from this ceasefire proposal.
We've talked a lot about the politics here, and I don't want to lose track of the sort of humanity of this and a real goal of I think the United States is addressing what has become a devastating humanitarian crisis, and the support for Israel through their campaign has had the unintended but real effect of tying the US to their role in providing arms that devastated lots of Gaza and has created that crisis. As a turn, the US has been isolated, So there's a diplomatic costs to not screen a deal.
Thanks for listening to The Big Take DC podcast from Bloomberg News. I'm Salaia Mosen. This episode was produced by Julia Press. It was mixed by Blake Maples and fact checked by Audreyan Atapia. It was edited by Aaron Edwards and Nick Wadams. Wendy Benjaminson and Elizabeth Ponso provide editorial direction. Naomi Shaven and Kim Gettelson are senior producers. Nicole Beemsterbower is our executive producer. Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.
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Mm hmm