On April fourth, nineteen forty nine, the North Atlantic Treaty was signed by Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Italy, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Iceland, Canada, and the United States. This union of twelve nations became known as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or more simply, NATO.
A lot has changed since that day, all the way back in April nineteen forty nine. Twelve nations soon became more and NATO continued to grow after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Decades later saw the rise of post Cold War tensions.
Some breaking news out of the Balkans.
Now, Montenegro's parliament has unanimously voted in favor of joining NATO.
NATO officially welcomed North Macedonia as its thirtieth member on Thursday.
Now, of course, a new threat in Europe has rallied NATO.
Dimir Putin has just addressed the Russian people a moment ago, announcing what Putin called the start of a military special operation in his words, to demilitarize Ukraine.
That's led other nations to move toward membership, and the Collective Security at promises NATO Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg has said Ukraine will ultimately be welcomed into the alliance, a vote of confidence that when the war does finally end, Ukraine will still be standing as a nation.
As late as last year, all alas agreed that Ukraine will become a member of this alliance and we are making concrete steps.
The most recent countries to start down the road to membership are Finland and Sweden, and they both encountered resistance from a NATO member.
Turkey has renewed its threat to keep Sweden and Finland out of NATO.
The Turkish Finland was admitted to NATO just this past spring. Sweden's final approval, though, is hung up in negotiations, and we'll talk about why Turkey is still saying no.
Turkey's president says Sweden should not expect support for its NATO membership bid after a far right politician burned a quran in Stockholm.
How to break that impasse is just one of the weighty questions on the table when the leaders of NATO countries meet next week in Lithuania's capital, Vilnius. Bloomberg's Natalia Drosdiak and Brussels and Nicholas Rolander and Stockholm will be reporting from the summit, and I asked them to tell us what the leaders hope to accomplish there. I'm wes Kasova today on the big take NATO moves to reinforce its ranks Natalia. There's a lot for the NATO country
members to discuss when they meet in Vilnius. Can you tell us who's going to be there.
It's going to be the leaders of all thirty one NATO allies, US President Biden of course, but also his counterparts abroad, especially in Europe. But will also get visits from the Prime Minister of Sweden, which is a formal invitee to join NATO, as well as Ukrainian President Zelenski. And we're also expecting visits from the leaders of New Zealand, Australia, Japan and South Korea in Italia.
What is at the top of the agenda for this meeting?
So NATO leaders are gathering within the context of eighteen months of Russia's invasion in Ukraine.
Ukraine's counter offensive has been launched.
Ukrainian forces continue to advance, albeit slowly, on the flanks of Bakmood in the Donetsko blansts.
The Russians have resumed their air strikes overnight against the capital Key. That's the first time in twelve days that they've been attacking.
This is still key focus for the Alliance and Russia is the main threat for NATO.
And in fact, here's Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg's seeking. At last year's NATO summit in Madrid, he explained just how much the alliances relationship with Russia has changed since the invasion of Ukraine.
And this is the new strategic concept. The current one was agreed in twenty ten, and this is very different compared to what we agreed back then. It makes clear that Russia poses the most significant and direct threat to our security. In the current concept, we state that Russia is a strategic partner.
So with all that in mind, they are going to agree on a few key things. The first one will
be a new defense spending goal. So people might have heard the two percent figure, which is that allies are supposed to spend two percent of their GDP on defense, and so that will be replaced by something very similar that says that Allies need to spend at least two percent of GDP and need to do so immediately, and they'll also sign off on new defense plans, which will basically detail how allies are supposed to defend specific geographic
areas if they come under attack from Russia or from Terrace. Those are the two main threats the Alliance sees at the moment. Next, they'll also agree on a package of long term support for Ukraine, which will also include some sort of language on Ukraine's bid to join the Alliance. They'll also hope to make progress on Sweden's accession to join the Alliance, which is currently blocked by Turkey and Hungary.
And finally, there's one more point. They will likely re extend Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg's term as Chief of the Alliance Nicholas.
Last year NATO leaders met in Madrid, and of course Ukraine was at the top of the agenda then too, But a lot has changed in the last year when you look sort of twelve months later, How has NATO's response to the war and Ukraine changed?
So for NATO, so this really has glued the organization together and given it a purpose that it might not
have had for many years. In the same way as this Russian aggression has provided, so it has in a way strengthened the Alliance, and it has also made it more attractive for countries like Sweden where I am, and Finland, who, as a direct consequence of the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine, decided to leave their policies of neutrality or military non alignment behind and apply for membership in the organization.
But I would say there's also some things that haven't changed, which is that NATO is still not offering direct military support to Ukraine. This is all happening from allies directly. The goal is really to prevent any escalation that ropes the Alliance into the conflict with Russia, so they continue to be really, really careful with that. And then I would say among individual allies, we've seen how taboos about
sending Ukraine certain weapons have steadily fallen away. You know, there was initial fear of escalation to send tanks or long range missiles or even fighter jets, but now that's all basically on its way to Ukraine.
The United Kingdom has confirmed that it is supplying Ukraine with multiple storm Shadow cruise missiles.
The United States has agreed that the Allies can send F sixteen fighter jets to Ukraine.
Also, at the end of the meeting last year, leaders from Turkey, Finland and Sweden signed a trilateral memorandum. Nicholas, can you tell us what that is and what it said?
It was a document that paved the way for Sweden and Finland gaining invitee status to NATO.
I'm pleased to announce that we now have an agreement that paves the way for Finland and Sweden to join NATO.
And it's a very carefully worded document that talks about what Turkey wants from Sweden and Finland in exchange for accepting them as inviteeen nations. It includes some concrete steps but also some more vague wording about the commitment to fight terrorism. Some of the stuff that it contains is things that the countries were doing anyway, such as tightening terrorism laws. But it also spells out that Sweden and Finland, as applicants to NATO can't have any arms embargo against Turkey,
for example. That's the basis of the process that allowed Turkey to ratify Finland and Sweden hopes at least will allow it to also ratify Sweden's application at some point in time. Obviously, with the Finland joining the Alliance, NATO has doubled its border with Russia. Finland has the law longest land border with the Russia of any European Union country.
Having Finland and potentially Sweden as well in the Alliance is a big deal because these countries have had a long history of a close partnership with the Alliance. But also given their position, their geographic position just north of the Baltic Sea, they could also help reinforce Baltic nations in a crisis, which is in that area has long been seen as the alliance is weak spot in light of the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and borders with Russia
and Belarus. But you know, it also creates potential complications for the Alliance because the border is longer, that's more area for the Alliance to also defend.
You know.
Another element of Finland and Sweden joining will also bolster the Alliance's presence in the Arctic, and this is becoming an increasingly strategic area. It's also where Russia and China are more and more active. So once Sweden joins, seven out of eight Arctic nations will be part of NATO. There's this question of territorial claims, which we've also seen with Russia and Ukraine. But then also in terms of Russia's activity, its military activity has really stepped up in
recent years. There it remains the shortest distance for Russia to fire missiles to the US and that it would go over the Arctics. So it's a really critical area for the Alliance to monitor.
After the break, why is it taking so long for NATO to open the door for Sweden.
We welcome Finland as the news member of our alliance. We will raise the Finnish flag for the first time here at the NATO headquarters.
That was NATO's Jen Stotberg speaking outside the NATO headquarters in Brussels last April, but Finland's bid to join the alliance was not at all assured Sweden. Finland's bid to join NATO has stalled as Turkey continues to block the two countries from joining the military alliance until the spring of this year. Finland's has overcome the final hurdle towards becoming a fully fledged member of NATO. Nicholas Finland and Sweden both applied for membership in NATO at the same time.
Finland was granted membership in April, but Sweden's still trying to get its membership approved. What exactly is holding it up?
In one word, it's Turkey and specifically the Turkey's president resip type Perdigon. It's been pretty clear since Sweden and Finland handed in their applications that Sweden was a bigger problem for Turkey than Finland was. The main issue that Turkey has with Sweden is that we have a large group of Kurtis immigrants in Sweden, somewhere above one hundred thousand.
That's something that Finland doesn't have. And many of those Kurds in Sweden are politically active and opposed to Erdigan's government. Some of them are active in groups or sympathized with groups that Turkey considered terrorists. And there are also activities that are related to PKK, which is designated as a terrorist group across the European Union.
In the PKK, the Kurdistan Workers Party, it's a militant Kurdish separatist group.
So Turkey has been adamant from when Sweden and Finland handed in their applications that both nations, but especially Sweden, has to take concrete measures to be more firm and to be more active on cracking down on what they see as activities of terrorists and terrorist sympathizers.
And what is Sweden's response to this?
Ben Sweden has tightened laws on terrorism. That was a process that was already under way, but it has since been completed, and Sweden has also, in accordance with the memorandum,
increased cooperation between law enforcement in Turkey and Sweden. A lot of this is behind closed doors and hard to gauge exactly what has been done what would have been done anyway, is a direct result of this spat with Turkey, but I think it's fair to say that there is an increasing awareness and an increased focus on the activities of groups like the PKK in Sweden from law enforcement.
And has this new anti terrorism law that Sweden adopted satisfied Turkey's demands.
I wouldn't say that Turkey still feels that there's more to be done. They have additional demands, some of which are hard to square with the rule of law in Sweden. For example, there's been talk about a list of one hundred and thirty people that Turkey wants extradited from Sweden.
But anyway, in Sweden, the process for extraditions is handled through the court system, and the government can't overrule Supreme Court decisions on extraditions, so Turkey's demands for some of those extraditions have been declined on various grounds, including the
risk of political persecution. And the most recent complaints from the Turkish government has been about demonstrations in Sweden in the capital of Stockholm, where Kurdish groups have flown the PKK flag in demonstrations, which is obviously very provocative, deliberately so against Turkey, and Turkey would like to see Sweden ban all expressions of sympathy for those groups. That very
hard with the Swedish laws on freedom of expression. So while the new laws on terrorism ban participation in terrorist groups and activities to support terrorist groups, it's not technically illegal just to express your sympathy for those groups.
Nicholas, Why is it such a big deal for Sweden to join NATO? Why would that be such a significant change.
It was already a significant, huge shift when Sweden decided to apply for membership in NATO.
Sweden has officially confirmed it will abandon its two century long policy of military neutrality and will apply for NATO membership over national security fears.
I mean, when Sweden joins, it's going to be a major shift because the entire region will become NATO territory and it's going to make it much harder for Russia to access its own territory in the exclave of Cliningrad.
And can you tell us about this exclave of Kaliningrad exactly what is it and why is it so important.
It's like a little chunk of territory that's wedged between Lithuania and Poland right on the coast of the Baltic Sea, and it is one of the most critical areas for the Alliance because right between Kaliningrad and Belarus. In order to reinforce the Baltic Nations, allies would need to be able to cut through the Polish border to Lithuania, which is right in between Kaliningrad and Belarus. And that's a very vulnerable area because it could be cut off in
a conflict. But if you have Sweden and Finland part of the Alliance reinforcing that region and a conflict would become much easier.
Nicholas, you talked about Sweden's history as a neutral country and what a big deal it was to even apply for NATO members What do people in Sweden think about it? Is there a lot of public support for the nation joining NATA?
Yes, there is. Since the full scale invasion of Ukraine, public opinion has really shifted rapidly. There has never been a majority in favor of joining NATO until that happened. But when people saw Russia was willing and capable of doing this sort of the calculus shifted really rapidly. There are two parties in Parliament that didn't want to join NATO, one that is actively opposed to it, and there is a vocal minority who still don't think it's a good
idea for various reasons. The latest poll I've seen has support of Sweden joining NATO at about seventy percent.
When we return, what does Turkey really hope to gain by holding back Sweden's membership Natalia? So we're hearing all about Turkey's demands to stop holding up Sweden's application to join NATO and Turkey had similar complaints against Finland. How were they eventually resolved so Finland was allowed to join?
Well?
I think one important point to note about Finland and why its process has been so different from Sweden's is that you know, at least from what I hear from diplomats anyways, that Finland did a lot of legwork in advance and proactively reached out to the Turkish government. They were more aware of potential hurdles that could have come up from that and were able to overcome them more easily with the Turkish government.
Are there any other NATO countries who are opposed or blocking Sweden's application or is it only Turkey?
It's Hungry as well and they came in last minute also blocking Finland's application. Twenty eight of the Military Alliances thirty members have ratified the two countries succession, leaving only Turkey and Hungary as holdouts. But they turned around when Turkey started to move. So the expectation is that Hungary will also come on board once Turkey gives the green light for Sweden.
And why is Hungary saying that they're blocking the application right now?
There has been some comments from Hungarian politicians expressing discontent with comments by Swedish politicians who have been critical of the development in Hungary under Victor Orban when it comes to the rule of law and freedom of expression, and these are all well known controversies around Orban's government that many European countries have criticized on exactly the same point.
The context is also that the EU and Hungary are locked in this fight about financing precisely overrule of law issues. So while the EU is a totally separate institution, many of its members are part of NATO, and Sweden actually currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU. Some diplomats are drawing links there that Hungary may be trying to gain leverage at the EU over this.
So how might this impass ultimately be broken? Are other NATO countries putting pressure on Turkey to change their position and allow Sweden in.
Yeah, there's a lot of negotiating going on between Sweden and Turkey and NATO staff as well, but other allies are also getting involved. They're having frequent conversations with their Turkish counterparts to try and convince them that it's important for the alliance's security to have Sweden join as soon as possible. And then from the US perspective, the US holds a key point of leverage because the Congress is still not signed off on F sixteen's that Turkey wants.
Turkey's president Rejeptae Eduwan will meet with President Biden to push for the purchase of new AT sixteen warplanes that you will talk.
So that is something that is hanging in the balance as Turkey holds out its decision on Sweden's accession.
From the Swedish side, politicians are focused on what Sweden can do and typically declined to speculate too much on what other allies can bring to the table. There's always been that speculation about sixteen's for example, but it's hard to know how important that will be and whether that will be the end all of the impasse in Natalia.
Do you think ultimately Turkey will relent and Sweden will become a NATO member?
I do, and I think I think other allies do as well, even as frustrated as many of them are that this process is taking much longer than they had initially. You know, they had initially hoped to sign off on both Sweden and Finland's memberships within a matter of days. Now we're talking months, if not more than a year. The question is whether that will happen before the Vilnius summit.
It looks really unlikely at this point that this will be done and dusted by then, but they're hoping at least for some sort of signal or progress from the Turkish government that this will move ahead and then they could potentially complete ratification in the parliament later this fall.
Nicholas, do you think that at this meeting in Vilnius there will be sort of an announcement that it's moving forward or is it going to take longer than that.
That is an idea that has been floated. It should be seeing us the least preferable option of the good options for Sweden, because Swedish government officials still say that they are looking full ratification on a membership by Vilnius, but the idea of some sort of declaration of a tent from Turkey has been floated, including by Jens Stoltenberg, and that's probably the more realistic hope at this point.
Natalia, Nicholas, both of you are going to be in Vilainious at this meeting. We've been talking about all the different things that are going to happen there. But what are you especially watching for.
You know, in addition to Sweden, I will also be closely following the discussions about Ukraine's membership because this is one of the most contentious points. It really comes down to language for two three sentences maybe, but they're really struggling to try and find a way to give Ukraine more perspective about its membership to the Alliance without going too far and without really starting the process because it's something they just can't do while while it's still at war.
They're really in a bind over that, and Ukrainian President Zelensky has said that he's put a lot of pressure the last few months on allies to come up with something that goes beyond promises that they've made for the past fifteen years.
For me, the Swedish application on the Turkish gratification is the big issue obviously, and it may very well come down to the wire as it did last year in Madrid when Sweden and Finland was quanted in my TA status at the summit.
Nicholas Natalia, thanks so much for coming on the show. Thank you, thanks for listening to us here at the Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. For more shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen. And we'd love to hear from you. Email us with questions or comments to Big Take at Bloomberg dot Net. The supervising producer of The Big Take is Vicky Vergalina. Our senior producer is Catherine Fink. Frederica
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