America’s Allies Are Not Pleased About the Intel Leaks

From Bloomberg News and iHeartRadio. It's the big take. I'm West Ksova today. The suspect in the classified documents leak maybe in custody, but the global fallout is far from over. The US intelligence community can breathe a small sigh of relief with the arrest of Jack to Shah, the Massachusetts Air National guardsmen suspected in one of the most damaging breaches of classified material in years, but sealing the leak won't be enough to satisfy the UK, Israel, and other close US allies.

The State Department is downplaying the conversations it's having with foreign governments about the leaks, but that's not what we're hearing from foreign capitals.

Bloomberg's Courtney McBride reports that the Biden administration is working fast to calm anger that so many shared secrets were made public and explained to allies how a low ranking twenty one year old could have gotten access to such sensitive files in the first place. Court There's been a whole lot of reporting about these leaks and what's in them, and it's still moving pretty quickly. Can you just give us a brief sum up about what they contained?

Well, The leaks include a lot of documents that appear to come mostly from the Pentagon and include US assessments of Ukraine's prospects in its defense against Russia, as well as some intelligence that the US appears to have collected on its own allies and partners. Some of the information on partners in particular has caused some diplomatic consternation, and the State Department is trying to help to repair some ties may have been a bit freed.

And that's really what we're talking about today, is that it's one thing for this information to come out, but it's another thing or what it means for the US's relationship with all these other countries and the kind of trust that they have in each other when it comes not just as spying, but the keeping track of that information so it doesn't go public.

Absolutely. I think several of the foreign officials with whom we spoke said that it was not particularly surprising that the US was doing this kind of data collection, but what was really concerning was that it didn't manage to

Can you describe a little bit about what other governments have come forward to say so.

Some have expressed concern learn that the US assessments of Russia's prospects against Ukraine and of Ukraine's own shortcomings in the cases of air defense and ammunition are particularly damaging that they could embolden Russia to seize on those weaknesses

Doing, Courtney. Aside from the information that is in these leaked documents, there's been a big conversation about the danger of adversaries finding out how this information got out.

Absolutely, I think the level of detail contained in the documents about Russia in particular puts at risk what the intelligence community refers to as sources and methods, and so the fear is that US intelligence sources, whether they're spies or Russian officials, are at risk that Moscow could find them and take them out of Commission Courtney.

We're going to talk a lot more about that in a minute, but let's take a moment and talk about the suspect in the case, Jack to Sharah, and what he's alleged to have done. And I should point out here that everything we're talking about here that he's alleged to have done are just that there are allegations. None of this has been proven.

Jack to Shara is a twenty one year old member the Massachusetts Air National Guard whose specialty was in the information systems area. He had a security clearance as part of his role, and so he would have had access to at least some sensitive information and.

The way he allegedly leaked these documents was kind of unusual.

Yes, Instead of going to a journalist as some leakers have done in the past, Tashera initially shared these very sensitive documents on discord, which is a platform that's used by gamers, in a small group that he was unofficially leading. And in this discord chat group, in addition to video games, the members would talk about patriotism, about God, about guns, and as the investigation proceeds, this may factor into to share his alleged motives for leaking the information.

Oftentimes it takes a long time to identify a leaker, and they found him if he is indeed the person who leaked these documents, pretty quickly they did.

It was definitely a usual in these types of cases. He does not seem to have covered his tracks, perhaps as well as past leakers have done, and so it was very quick process for journalists, law enforcement, and even other independent investigators to identify and locate him.

There's one thing that I think a lot of people find curious, which is that some of the numbers having to do with war casualties in Ukraine appear to have been doctored to show that there were more Ukrainian casualties and fewer Russian casualties.

Yes, I mean, I think that has been really the discrepancy between presumably the original documents and those that have been shared that a lot of folks have seized on.

Does that suggest that perhaps there might have been some Russian involvement here.

In our reporting, officials have told us that they have not ruled out the possibility that Russia was involved. We've spoken to some intelligence experts who said that there's a concern that the Russian security Service could have used Americans as unwitting pawns in an effort to obtain and disseminate our very sensitive information.

You right about how there are some pretty awkward conversations going on behind the scenes. Joe Biden was recently in the UK and South Korea's president's coming to Washington later this month, and he's got some explaining to do, doesn't he.

Absolutely. I think beyond the content of the leaked documents, the real challenge is what it shows about the US's ability to secure its information and the information of its allies and partners. There are some uncomfortable conversations happening in the US and foreign capitals as these governments really try

Can you describe some of those uncomfortable conversations. What do we know about what US diplomats, even the President may be telling their counterparts in other capitals.

So the State Department is downplaying the conversations it's having with foreign governments about the leagues, but that's not what we're hearing from foreign capitals. In fact, many of them are deeply frustrated. This goes beyond embarrassment. This is a real breach in their view, not just a breach of trust.

What did the documents have to say about that?

Israel has been experiencing popular protests over proposed changes to the country's judicial system, and the documents leaked from the US indicate agency support for popular protest. So the understanding that we have from our reporting is that the Israelis are not necessarily bothered so much by the content of the leaks, but the fact of the CIA's surveillance of Mosad.

When we come back all the other countries that are demanding answers from the Biden administration.

On the intelligence leaks, what I can tell you is this, we have engaged with our allies and partners since these leaks came out, and we you've done so at high levels, and we have made clear our commitment to safeguarding intelligence and our commitment to our security partnerships. What I've heard so far, at least, is an appreciation for the steps that we're taking, and it's not affected our cooperation. I just haven't seen that.

That Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln trying to put his best foot forward in a difficult situation. Courtney, we talked about leaks involving two US allies, Ukraine in Israel. What about the UK, which is of course probably the United States most important ally.

So part of the US UK special relationship involves a considerable amount of intelligence sharing, and we understood from the UK that this was a particularly troubling incident for them and that they were going to press it with the United States. That being said, the White House has claimed that the leaks did not even come up during a conversation between President Biden and Prime Minister Sunak.

And so even though the White House and the State Department are kind of downplaying it, it's clear that they're burning up the phone lines here. And you're right too that there are other allies involved that may not have gotten sensitive material leak, but who nevertheless don't want to be named in a classified trove.

Of course, you know, there are any number of allies and partners who feed information into the US and benefit from US intelligence collection, whether it's Washington alerting them of threats abroad or at home, and the leaks covered US allies and partners around the world from France to Egypt to South Korea. South Korean president is coming to Washington to meet with President Biden for a previously scheduled meeting that now will have an additional complicated element.

And China also made an appearance in the documents.

Yes, there are reports that the documents include information on additional Chinese spy balloons, as well as details about China's military capabilities and readiness.

You mentioned Egypt, and that was one of the leak documents that made me sit up in my chair. What exactly did that contain?

So that document suggested that Egypt was planning to sell weapons to Russia, and this was something that Egyptian President Abdel Fatal Cisi vehemently denied. But that was, as you said, one of the more surprising elements of this trove, because.

That would be a big deal. Egypt has been an alley of the US and receives quite a bit of annual foreign aid from the United States.

Absolutely, and Russia, of course, is subject to all manner of sanctions and arms purchasing restrictions.

Courtney, this term five Eyes has been coming up in connection with these leak documents. This is a very well known organization inside the intelligence and foreign policy community, but I think a lot of US don't really know very much about it. What is Five Eyes?

Five Eyes is a particularly intensive intelligence sharing alliance involving the US, the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. This is sort of the closest intel relationship that the United States has.

And what does this organization.

Do exactly what it sounds like, share intelligence that the various agencies in each respective country collect about threats and other relevant information around the world.

And so what is your reporting telling you about? What the conversation among the Five Eyes nations has been since these documents have come to light.

So this is perhaps the most awkward set of conversations because these are the closest US intelligence partners. These countries are providing particularly sensitive information, and the risk posed by a leak from the United States is not just a reputational or an informational risk for the United States, but it's also for those countries that may have been the sources of some of that information.

A courtney, I suppose it's easy to criticize this leak sitting from another capital when it's not yours, But I imagine these other countries too, know that they could one day be the ones having to explain an intelligence leak.

Absolutely, I mean, it's happened before, and unfortunately, it probably will happen again. All of these countries recognize that they too are vulnerable to both human error or human leaks, and perhaps technological hacking. And so while they are privately rebuking the United States and seeking those assurances that the US is taking all appropriate measures to prevent it from happening again, they recognize that they could be in this position themselves.

After the break. Will these leaks blow over or will they cause lasting damage in America's relationships with its allies? Are you concerned about the League?

Well, I'm not concerned about the League because and I'm concerned and it happened, but there's nothing contemporaneous, so I'm aware of that is of Great Counselorence Accordney.

At first, there was a lot of discussion about how someone so junior could have access to this material, but it seems that it's fairly common for that to happen. It is.

You know, there are roughly three million people with security clearances according to our reporting, and very young members of the US military require access to sensitive information in order to do their jobs.

And I imagine they go through quite extensive background.

Checks, yes, and there are periodic reviews of security clearances to ensure that people are not compromised financially or otherwise.

And yet, as we've learned and over the years, and we're learning again now, that isn't always enough.

That's right, And you know, I think investigators are going to dig very very deeply into potential motives in this case, and you know that could affect the way that they assess clearances going forward.

You had said, how all these countries know it could happen to them, and so that sort of tempers what they want to say publicly in criticizing the US. The nature of this leak, though, seems so different from other national security breaches, where perhaps you would have a long time spy who had been caught a senior person. This was allegedly a young man twenty one years old who very casually was able to get this stuff and share it on a platform for gamers. Is the way this

You know, I think there are a lot of questions about the level of access this person appears to have had, the number of supervisory officials who who may have dropped the ball, and I think that as part of the Justice Department investigation, which is a criminal inquiry, and the Defense Department's own internal assessment, we may hear quite a bit more.

I mean, talk a little bit about how information this sensitive is usually handled, who's allowed to see it, and how someone like this could possibly ever even come into contact with it. There are a.

Lot of protocols that go into handling of classified documents. There are escalating levels of classification, and thus a smaller number of people have access to it, and many of these documents are clearly marked, numbered, tracked very carefully, so that raises a lot of questions about the ability of this person to not only access, but perhaps remove these documents from a secure facility.

The other thing that's very interesting about this was how many countries and different sorts of intelligence this encompass, so that it wasn't as though this person had limited access to something he should or stumbled across it, but seemed to have access to a very wide range of classified material.

There are a lot of different sources of intelligence in the United States. There are eighteen different organizations that make up the US intelligence community, and of.

Course the government generates a lot of reports, and so that means a lot of classified documents out there and a lot of people who are cleared to see them.

Absolutely. Our reporting indicates that there are about three million people in the United States with security clearances.

One thing that's gotten a lot of attention was that some of these documents had classification markings on them that said that they weren't to be shared with foreign allies.

Yes, the Defense Department and the intelligence community used a variety of different designations, not necessarily always on classified materials. Sometimes there's are contracting documents that indicate that they should not be shared with foreign nationals. It's not necessarily about adversaries. But there are certain documents that, for whatever reason, are deemed sensitive enough that they should be viewed and handled only by US citizens.

So it's not necessarily a significant thing that those markings were on there, that there were specially sensitive.

Not necessarily, but you know, there are any number of additional markings that could indicate that they are.

We've talked a lot about this investigation, both to find the leader and also to find out how we got it. And really the point there, I suppose, is to seal the leaks so it can't happen again. What usually happens in a situation like this, How do they then review what they're doing and try to tighten the screws on intelligence?

Well, there are different avenues of the investigation. As we said, the Justice Department has the lead on the criminal investigation, but the Defense Department and different constituent organizations are really going to look at their own processes, whether it is look at who was supervising this person in the particular unit, you know, how much information the unit itself had access to.

Is there something that the US is going to have to do to win back trust?

I don't know that there's necessarily going to be a quid pro quo. I think there will certainly be some mea culpas issued. But you know, as our reporting found, many countries both understand that the shoe could be on the other foot, but also know that there is no substitute for the intelligence that they gain from the United States, and so they have to assume a certain amount of risk in order to benefit from that.

Stories like this are always fascinating to read. You get a glimpse behind the curtain into this secret world. We've talked about these kind of difficult conversations that the US now has to have with allies. But ultimately does this cause real damage or is it just a moment of sort of excitement that dissipates over time.

I don't know that it necessarily causes severe damage to the alliance on partnership relationships, but there are serious risks for Ukraine in the publication of confidential US assessments of the war situation, you know, one analyst suggested that the US has now increased the risk to Ukraine by allowing its assessments of Ukraine's weaknesses to become public, and so it should, as a result, increase assistance to help Ukraine

Courtney mcbriene, Thanks so much for coming on the show, Thanks for having me, Thanks for listening to us here at The Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. For more shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen. And we'd love to hear from you. Email us questions or comments to Big Take at Bloomberg dot net. The supervising producer of The Big Take and the producer of this episode is Vicky Bergalina.