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Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine is now stretching into its third summer. The conflict has claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian troops and has cost the US more than one hundred billion dollars in aid. Still, there's no end in sight, and so unsurprisingly, support for Ukraine was a major topic during last week's presidential debate
between President Biden and former President Trump. This week, Bloomberg's Anne Marie Hordern sat down with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky for an exclusive interview. Zelensky took questions, often with the help of an interpreter, and spoke about a wide range of issues, including the impact the US presidential election could have on the war in Ukraine's the answer of how this might all unravel will depend on also who's at the table from the.
United States, amongst other things. It might depend on who is the president of the US. Yes, that's a fact.
Zelensky has relied heavily on Biden's support since the war started, and was asked about his own observations of the US president in recent months have you.
Seen a deterioration in his health. Oh, yes, the deterioration was difficult for me to say about the health.
President Zelenski also weighed in on former President Trump's claims during the debate that he would swiftly end the Russia Ukraine War if elected.
If Trump knows how to end this war, he should tell us today.
Today on the show Bloomberg's exclusive interview with Ukrainian President Voladimir Zelensky, we hear the latest on where the conflict stands, as well as what President Zelenski says it would take to secure a peace deal and a possible end to the war, And we speak with Nick Wadams, who leads Bloomberg's national security team, about the major takeaways from the interview and what he'll be watching for during a major meeting of NATO allies in Washington next week. I'm Sarah Holder,
and this is the big take from Bloomberg News. We all heard the US presidential debate last week. One of the major issues the two candidates discussed was Ukraine, and this comment from former President Trump was particularly striking. I will have that war settled between Putin and Zelinsky as president elect before I take office on January twentieth, I'll have that war settled. Settled? But how Anne Marie Hordern asked the Ukrainian president what went through his mind when
he heard this? President Trump said he'll end the war before he's elected.
Yeah, do you make of that? Let me be frank, I'm divided, not pretty close for sam Well. The decision is on us public. But let me just have mistaken that the winner might be how to end the war. He has a plan me as the president of the country at war, not theoretical person that a real life person. I would like to be prepared. So I would like to understand what would it mean to finish war fast? If Trump knows how to end this war, he should tell us today.
That was what President Zelenski told Anne Marie earlier this week. I put that same question to Bloomberg's head of national security coverage, Nick Wadams. Do we have any idea what Trump means when he said he'd settle the war?
The short answer to that is no. No one has any real sense for what President Trump's i is are or how he would figure out the war in Ukraine. There is some speculation around the idea that he would essentially pressure Ukraine to give up its claims on a lot of the territory in the East that Russia took both several years ago but also as part of its invasion in February of twenty twenty two. But that's something that Ukraine has said it will not accept under any conditions.
So still a lot of questions about that. But I think what you see there is something we saw a lot from former President Trump during his administration, which is really his belief in himself as a deal maker that if he can get the two sides in the room, he will just be able to work out a solution.
On the other hand, Biden indicated during the debate and during his campaign that he would hold firm continue supplying Ukraine with money. What would a Biden win mean for Zelensky and for.
Putin, Well, I think what you'd see from Biden is essentially more of the same. So the real belief that they need more money, they need more military assistance, they need more and more advanced weapons systems, and that really US support is absolutely fundamental to Ukraine's ability to win the war, and that's not something they would give up on. Of course, the big question there is whether he would face any resistance from Congress. That a lot will depend
on who controls Congress after the election. But you know, there's only so much President Biden can do here. He will keep up public support for Ukraine, but it's Congress that controls the purse strings, and they'll be the ones that would have to decide whether to send any more money. And that's going to be an increasingly difficult If.
The US did push Ukraine to settle with Russia under a Trump presidency or give up some of its land, as Trump may have been hinting at, what choices would Ukraine and Zelensky have in that situation.
This is a real existential issue for Ukraine, and it's a great question and one that is being asked quietly in the US as well. I think it would make
that possibility much more real for Ukraine. There's a real sort of rock in a hard place situation here right now where there is very little chance, at least military analysts believe there's very little chance that Ukraine will ever get any of the land back, or the majority of the land back in the East that Russia took several years ago in its initial invasion and would really struggle to even get the land back that Russia took in
February of twenty twenty two. So at the same time, Ukraine says there is absolutely no way it's going to end the war until it gets that land back, and that is a contradiction that no one has really been able to solve. So it's really a question of how you sort of peck around the edges on that extremely challenging question, and so far no one's been able to
get an answer. But I think what you would see, or at least one idea that has been suggested, is you essentially say, okay, let's come up with some sort of plan that brings not a formal peace, but almost an armistice or a ceasefire, a long term, indefinite he's fire, almost like what you see between North and South Korea. That's something that I've been pointed to by sources, and that's just one of the ideas that's been suggested for Ukraine.
One of the big questions coming out of last week's US presidential debate between President Biden and former President Trump was not about specific policy, but about President Biden himself and his fitness for office. When m Marie asked Zelenski about that question. He demurred, have you seen.
A deterioration in his health? Oh? Yes, the deterioration was difficult for me to say about the health biden health is difficult for me to say. It would not be really ethical from my side.
Anne Marie followed up, asking Zelensky what he would do in Biden's shoes. You're forty six years old. You do your job at eighty one.
Oh wow, I don't know.
It depends on many things.
Of course, it depends on your house and who is around you, your team and etc. I don't know. I don't know. I only can to his good health.
I asked Nick what he made of that exchange.
You know, it's an extraordinary moment because it really sums up the challenges that Zelenski faces as well as many other leaders. I mean, there is no question that Zelenski prefers Joe Biden to Donald Trump. Biden has given him essentially everything he wanted. Maybe he didn't get it as quickly as he wanted, but he has been pushing against an open door, and Biden is one of his biggest
champions in the world. At the same time, there is obviously anxiety he and many other European leaders feel about President Biden, given his debate performance, given what many of them have seen for themselves, the fact that age is
really slowing Joe Biden down. So how do you, on the one hand, say, listen, no, eighty one years old may be stretching the outer limits of what's possible for someone to run the most powerful country in the world, against the fact that Joe Biden is essentially his biggest ally. I mean, that's just something that he's not going to want to touch, and I thought, I think he saw his discomfort there in trying to figure out how to get around that question.
What do these questions about Biden's candidacy mean for Zelensky? What would you imagine Zelensky is watching for now?
Well, the big question for Zelensky is whether Trump or Biden is going to win in November, because their policies towards Ukraine are just so different, at least in tone, and the pressure that he's going to face one is going to be direct overt pressure that is essentially, hey, you have to get into negotiations now, and there's going to be a lot more scrutiny of the aid. He may not get any more aid from the US if
President Trump is elected. That's a very real possibility against a s a continuation of a policy that he's liked quite a lot from the US. But I think again, you're sort of seeing a situation that Zelenski encountered during the impeachment inquiry around Donald Trump a few years ago, which is essentially a sense of terror that you are watching this country that basically holds your fate in its hands, and there is absolutely nothing you can do about it.
I mean, this is the impression we're getting from a lot of leaders allied countries around the world, like, oh my god, this country that is absolutely integral to our own fates is going through a period of an incredible turmoil, and all we can do is sit back and watch.
Coming up after the break, what Zelensky and Ukraine need from the international community to get through the end of this year and beyond, and how the NATO summit next week could affect the future of the war. The Russia Ukraine war has been dragging on for years. Ukraine obviously is at a disadvantage in terms of size, population and budget.
In her exclusive interview with The Ukrainian president. Bloomberg's Anne Marie Hordern asked Zelenski about how he sees the timeline of the war moving forward.
How long do you think will be in this deadlocks? It's not a deadlock problems, it's a problematic situation. At deadlock means there's no way out, but a problem can be solved.
Zelensky says, the war is not deadlocked. I asked Nick about how that characterization squares with the facts on the ground.
I think what you're seeing right now is essentially very intense fighting over very little ground, and there's not a lot of talk any more about major breakthroughs, major counter offensive, major strikes that would allow either side to take a significant amount of territory. So you are in a situation essentially of stalemate, which then provokes the question, which is
one that Donald Trump was asking. Okay, well, if the front lines are not going to change significantly for any sort of period in the future, what do we do. How do we steer this thing towards some sort of resolution? And is there a scenario under which President Zelensky would be willing to, at least in terms of the facts on the ground, give up control of a particular stretch of land potentially forever, and that is really the question
they're kind of trying to wrestle with. And that's what you see the US and European leaders coming under a lot more scrutiny for how much are you going to spend to essentially maintain stalemate? And that's a question no one's really been able to answer.
How significant is the role of NATO in this war.
Ukraine could not fight this war alone without NATO's help. It's a very tricky line because NATO does not want to get involved directly. Ukraine is obviously not a member of NATO, and if NATO countries were to be involved in the war in terms of actually fighting with Russia, there's a lot of fear that that could then lead Russia to attack NATO countries such as the Baltics Poland, which would then require other NATO countries to come to the aid of the country that was attacked, and then boom,
you have the bigger regional conflict. But in terms of serving as the coordinating power for all the weaponry and munitions and intelligence and radar and everything technological support that goes to Ukraine, NATO is absolutely Central.
NATO will be meeting next week, and the war between Ukraine and Russia and the potential of Ukraine joining the Alliance will be top of mind there. Nick, you've been preparing to cover the convening. What can we expect from those meetings?
Well, in terms of concrete deliverables, this is a meeting that is not really expected to deliver very much. There has been a lot of tension around what NATO will say in terms of offering Ukraine a path toward membership.
This is just an absolutely central issue for Zelenski. The issue is that NATO does not want to offer a guaranteed, clear, step by step path to membership, and there are some people, in fact who say they are large parts of NATO that, despite not saying so publicly, never want to give NATO membership to Ukraine. So what you're going to see is language where they offer a quote unquote bridge to membership
to Ukraine, which is essentially an expression of intent. Okay, we want you to be able to have NATO membership at some point in the future, but they are not going to give Ukraine what it wants, which is a
real clear, time bound roadmap for getting there. So you know this is a meeting that's intended to show strength, to show unity, to show support for Ukraine, but given that concern around Ukraine's NATO membership, and also questions around Biden's age, issues of elections that have gone to the far right in France, for example, you have world leaders
coming in looking pretty hobbled. So it was intended to send one message of strength, but it's essentially going to be sending the opposite of real uncertainty for Ukraine.
This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. This episode was produced by David Fox and Thomas lu It was edited by Stacy Vanicksmith, Darina Krassnalutska, and Piotr Skolimowsky. It was mixed by Alex Ugia. It was fact checked by Adriana Tapia. Our senior producers are Naomi Shaven and Kim Gittelson. Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso. Nicole beemsterbor is. Our executive producer Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts. If you liked this episode, make sure to subscribe and
review The Big Take wherever you listen to podcasts. It helps new listeners find the show. Thank you so much for listening. We'll be back on Monday.