Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Iran Supreme Leader Iotola Ali Hamanei has been killed in today's joint attack by the US and Israel.
Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating eminent threats from the Iranian regime.
What the United States is doing is an act of aggression. What we are doing is the act of self defense.
Targets in Iran, Israel, and elsewhere in the Middle East are under attack in an unprecedented escalation in the conflict between the US and Iran.
Would be wonderful if the negotiates really in good conscious, good faith, in conscience, but they are not getting there.
The combat operations come after weeks of negotiations between the US and Iran over what remains of its nuclear program. This was not an imminent nuclear threat.
This is a military action over regime change, not over the nuclear program.
Iranian state TV has reported that at least two hundred people were killed in the strikes. The country responded with missile attacks on Israel and strikes aimed at US assets in the region, where at least three US service members have been killed. Aron says it sees no red lines as it continues to respond with counter strikes. I'm David Gera, and this is the big take from Bloomberg News Today.
On the show, Bloomberg'sjeff Mason and Jumani Berseacci joined me to discuss what we know about the timing and goals of this weekend strikes and the risks of a widening regional conflict. Bloomberg White House correspondent Jeff Mason and Jumna Birssecci in Dubai have been here with me all weekend long at Bloomberg, along with correspondents across the globe following this story. Jeff, we just now heard the tape from
President Trump announcing this operation. He did it in a post on truth social which is an unprecedented move by a sitting US president. What has the President said, Jeff, about why they.
Did this now, why they undertook this at this moment, Well, the President is pitching the operation is having been in response to an imminent threat, and that is something that no doubt people are going to question and look into.
But that is the rationale that he used. His people. Also, his top advisors told him that the negotiations that were going on in Geneva with Iran about its nuclear program essentially came to a point where the United States concluded that Iran was not interested in talking about its blistic missile program and was still interested in pursuing a nuclear weapon.
Jeff, what does the US want? Is that clear? Are they using a playbook that they deployed in Venezuela just a couple months ago.
Well, it seems very clear that regime changes something that they wanted, because the President very directly referred to that in his statement when he encouraged people in Iran essentially to rise up and take this opportunity to take over their government. But they haven't. They been The United States in this case have not laid out how they expect
that to happen. And of course there's some comparisons to the Iraq War and this operation, but where those comparisons don't continue, at least so far as there are not US ground troops in Iran, and so the President may have less ability to influence that despite the fact that strikes are continuing.
Jamana, You're witnessing the escalation of this firsthand. You're based in Dubai, and I'm curious what things look like there. In the wake of these strikes that we've seen, Well, what.
You need to understand is that a substantial volley of missiles and drones have been directed at all of these Gulf states. And here I'm talking about the UAE behind in Kutar, Kuwait, even Oman who were obviously playing a key mediation role in those Geneva discussions. So that was also quite a surprising development. And while most of the missiles and drones have been intercepted, there are bits of debris that actually did cause a significant amount structure of
infrastructure damage. These are financial centers in the Middle East that have prided themselves on political stability and geoeconomic stability in the context of a broader region that tends to be quite hot and cold, i would say. And so the reaction has been pretty and notable in that it seems as though many of these Gulf states are losing
their patients with Iran. So we just had some comments from a key advisor to the UAE President and Viz warning Iran to return to their senses and to deal with their neighbors in a respectful fashion because otherwise, and this is a quote, it confirms the narrative that Iran is the biggest source of danger in the region. At the same time, you know, Iran has stopped one step short of going all the way of directly targeting you know,
residential buildings or civilian infrastructure or oil infrastructure. But you know, who's to say that this isn't going to escalate further.
Jeff, I want to pull back a bit. And there was this meeting yesterday of the UN Security Council which was called for by the Iranians, and Mike Waltz, the US representative at the UN, was there making the case, the US case for doing this. We've seen responses from other world leaders. European allies are holding an emergency meeting tomorrow. I was just talking with Senator Mark Warner of Virginia,
who sits on the Intelligence Committee. He talked about the prospects of this being really a US Israeli mission here not enjoying wide support of allies. How do you think about the way that the international community has responded to what's happened here?
Well, I think number one, that it's not something that President Trump is going to be too concerned about, and that's in large part because he during this second term and to some extent during his first term as well, has upended the international order with his own will and with his actions, be it from on the economy, using tariffs, or these strikes now in Iran and what was done
in Venezuela. That said, you know, the international community and other countries and allies or enemies for that matter of the United States have a right to voice their opinion, and the United Nations is a place to do that. Whether or not that actually has an impact, though I will see.
After the break, the risk to the Strait of Hormuz and to the oil market, and with the US military build up, where this could go from here? She want it. In the statements that we got from the US President, from President Trump, from the Israeli Prime Minister of Benjamin at Yahoo, there was this entreaty to Iranians to overthrow their government, to put down their weapons, and to seek a change of government in Iran. What risks does that introduce?
The call for that happening in the wake of an attack that was undertaken from the air, not on the ground.
Well, I have to think also that one of the reasons that Iran became such a focal point to the Trump administration was because of those demonstrations at the beginning of the year. That was the as at least in twenty twenty six, obviously with the background of Iran's multi
decade build up of nuclear capabilities. But if you recall back in January, president Trump posted that help is going to be on the way for the protesters and the demonstrators who were taking to the streets, and of course we know that they were brutally put down by the Iranian regime, and overtime those demonstrations started to peter out, and so here we are. You fast forward about a month later, and the US have now got involved militarily
alongside Israel. And it was pretty clear from that original video post that President Trump put up that his expectation is that the Iranian people should also use this as an opportunity to rise up. But of course that comes with many challenges. The major risk is that this could strengthen the hardliner's hands. They could go down even more
aggressively on the demonstrators, on the protesters. That could also be this push to rally around the flag as well and unite their Iranian people about against these external threats that are coming through. But then also there's a real
risk of broader retaliation. And right now, I think the Iranian regime sees this as a very fight for their existence, and so they're not going to hold back at retaliating, either against their own people or against neighboring countries, which is what we've seen in the last forty eight hours.
Jeff, what do we know of what the president is watching for here? As you said, his rationale here has been changing, somewhat ambiguous. What is he looking for in the days to come?
Well, certainly one of their primary objectives is to prevent Iran from being able to develop a nuclear weapon, and that's another thing that he talked about in his video statement. So the military campaign will no doubt be focused on that and on the resources and infrastructure that is available in Iran that could potentially be used for that and weapons programs, et cetera. Obviously, we know that they targeted Iranian leadership, and no doubt he'll be watching how around response.
We know, as we were just discussing that the retaliation is happening. Does that change any military calculations for President Trump the United States? How do they respond to that? I imagine they're watching all of those things, Jana.
Let me ask you about the oil market. What this means for that the Strait of Hormu is a key part of this conflict, at choke point where nearly twenty percent of the world's oil is transported. What is this likely to mean for oil prices in the days to come.
Well, even at the run up to this, oil prices had been lifted by a certain amount of what analysts call geopolitical premium because there was an expectation that a strike could happen at some point, so we were already up almost around twenty percent. We'll see where the market
opens up. But to your point, the Strait of Hormas is a key passageway for seaborne oil and as of now, if you look at the traffic over the weekends, according to Kepler they have their data analytics, it suggests that the flow of tankers is down around by seventy five to eighty percent. So essentially what's happening is tankers and vessels are avoiding going through the straits, so a significant drop in overall activity. At the same time, you know, one thing that you need to think about is the
oil that passes through that Strait. Most of it ends up going to Asia. So this is oil that's coming through from the Gulf countries, from Iran, but also other countries as well, Saudi Arabia, other GCC nations. The main buyer there is going to be China, and so if that oil isn't able to pass through the Straits, then obviously the oil has to come from somewhere else.
Jaman, I understand that OPEC plus that group of nations that produce oil weighing an increase in production as a result of this.
Yeah, that's true. So they actually had their regular meeting today and on the back of that they announced an increase of production of more than two hundred thousand barrels a day. That was probably not going to happen in the absence of the weekend's events, because the last couple
of months they've just paused with their production output. In Q four of last year, they were averaging around one hundred and thirty seven thousand extra barrels a day put back to the market, But in light of recent events and in light of perhaps a tightening of the market, they've opted to go with this extra supply increase, which also signals that at least a couple of countries within OPI plus Saudi Arabia and UAE, who've been pushing anyway to increase OPEK share the global share of oil, are
using this as an opportunity to get more of their oil back on the market.
Jeff, I want to end with what might be an off ramp for the president here. In the run up to this, there was a school of thought that because this might push up oil prices, maybe the president would avoid doing this. That he is under pressure to talk more about cost of living in affordability, and if gas prices were to rise, that would be a challenge to
him and his party going into the midterm elections. How is he thinking about that and how much of a forcing mechanism do you think that's likely to be here as he tries to game out a path forward.
Well, number one, he can't go back, so he's done it now and there's no way of erasing that. And the impact that it's going to have on the economy and on oil prices is still TBD. I think that'll
be very interesting to watch. Certainly, you're right to say that the political risk here for him in terms of the midterms is it potentially robs him of one of his favorite talking points, which is that he likes to take credit for low gasoline prices, and gasoline prices are absolutely something that voters watch because it's a part of their daily lives. And when consumers see their prices going up, be it at the grocery stores or be it at the pump, they remember that at the polls. And is
that an off ramp? I mean, does it impact whether these strikes continue? I think the answer to that is no at this point, because the United States is all in and.
Jaman, what are the expectations in the region for where this goes from here?
I think it's very difficult for anyone to have really good foresight on how this is going to play out. The hope I think from the US side is that the ongoing attacks will either lead the Iranian regime to fully collapse on itself or eventually for it to capitulate.
And the capitulation will only come if they have been decapitated at a senior level in terms of top echelon being taken out and a military level in terms of their actual ballistic missile arsenal their launchers being so severely damaged that they can't continue lobbying all of these missiles and drones into the region, into the GCT countries and
into Israel. The Prime Minister is really Prime Minister Natanyahu was just speaking as well and saying that they also expect to continue with these attacks over the next coming days.
And if anything, it will say from the Gulf State's perspective, the fact that they've been drawn into this, the fact that it has been so destabilizing for their own economies, has probably hardened their own resolve, and for a while they had been seeking to have not necessarily the strongest relations with Iran, but at least have operational diplomatic relationships. This could be a huge game changer for the region.
And one just last development that I would bring up as well is a phone call took place yesterday on Saturday between the Saudi Crown Friends Mohammad bin Seman and the UAE President MBZ. The two leaders have not spoken in a couple of months over disagreements around the forward
path of Yemen. What this clearly shows you is that the whole region and the Gulf States are uniting at this point in time to bring down the temperature to de escalate and to ensure that things really don't get out of control.
This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gurra. This is a developing story. We're live blogging at Bloomberg dot com with the latest from across the globe. We have a special Bloomberg subscription offer for podcast listeners at Bloomberg dot dot com Slash Podcast Offer. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.