Beyond the Polls listeners are all about the little details, and this week Henry's joined by Jacob Rubashkin, Deputy Editor at a premiere nonpartisan political analysis outfit, Inside Elections. They take us through a trip across the country to dig into the approaching Senate primaries in West Virginia & Maryland, along with House primaries in Pennsylvania’s 12th, Indiana 5, Maryland 3, Oregon 5, and the Republican runoff in Texas 23. Plus, with the fight over abortion heating up, pushing po...
Apr 11, 2024•53 min•Ep. 27
We take a long look at both sides of the pond this week, accompanied by Director of polling firm JL Partners Scarlett Maguire. She takes us through her team's innovative polling methods which have made them among the standouts for accurate predictions. She also takes us through their latest efforts in following the Trump/Biden rematch in the States and the crisis facing the Tories in Britain. Plus, Henry breaks down Donald Trump's favorable showing in the Wall Street Journal swing state poll; an...
Apr 04, 2024•45 min•Ep. 26
AEI's Senior Fellow Emeritus Karlyn Bowman returns to answer some questions and poses others on one of the essential political puzzles of the day: the growing separation between the sexes. Plus Henry speculates on how Donald Trump might blunt Joe Biden’s cash edge, and breaks down the latest attack ad against Mike Braun.
Mar 29, 2024•40 min•Ep. 25
Peter Robinson drops by for a detailed discussion with Henry about the road away from The Gipper's GOP. They consider the ways even acolytes misunderstood Reaganism and why that resulted in the extraordinary coalition shifts we're witnessing today.
Mar 21, 2024•1 hr 3 min•Ep. 24
The Ohio primaries are fast approaching, so we're off to the Buckeye State. Longtime Republican strategist Mark Weaver breaks down the top contests, including the tight, three-way race to take on incumbent Senate Democrat Sherrod Brown. Plus Henry covers Biden’s SOTU address. What does he make of this preview of Joe Biden’s 2024 campaign strategy, and how will the partisan messaging fare as the Democratic Party loses its popular vote edge? Tune in to find out!
Mar 14, 2024•45 min•Ep. 23
The primary season is over; a second Trump/Biden presidential race is all but certain. Transitioning to the general, CNN psephologist Harry Enten joins to explain the notable demographic shifts and electoral patterns that have taken shape since 2020. Plus, Henry takes us through Donald Trump's unique success at building out from the party base; and we stop by purple Wisconsin to see how Tammy Baldwin goes about defining challenger Eric Hovde.
Mar 07, 2024•47 min•Ep. 22
Those hoping for a sign that a 2020 presidential rematch could be averted will be disappointed by Tuesday's primaries in the Wolverine State. National Review's Rich Lowry joins to explore what Donald Trump's grip on the GOP means for the future of conservatism. Plus, Henry takes a look at the effectiveness of the Michigan Democratic Party's "Uncommitted" pressure campaign against Joe Biden.
Feb 29, 2024•41 min•Ep. 21
Donald Trump is set for another smashing victory on Saturday, this time against his lone challenger in her own state of South Carolina. But Nikki Haley's announced that she won't stay down. Charleston Post and Courier Political Editor Schuyler Kropf joins to conduct a close examination of the campaigns. Plus, Henry considers Team Haley's post-South Carolina strategy, and he makes a quick trip up to North Carolina where a new candidate named Fred Von Canon is eager to introduce himself.
Feb 22, 2024•38 min•Ep. 20
The days of landline polling are gone forever, the internet has changed everything. This week Henry is joined by Chief Scientist at YouGov and Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Douglas Rivers to discuss the innovative methodological approach he uses to find representative polling samples when much of the electorate is unwilling to respond to polls. Henry also takes a closer look at Tuesday’s special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District and explains how the good day for Democrats migh...
Feb 15, 2024•47 min•Ep. 19
Henry may be off in paradise to cover the Virgin Islands' Republican presidential caucuses, but he's back for another deep dive into American politics. He enjoys what looks at first glance like a nothingburger in Nevada, and lays out what it means for Joe Biden, Nikki Haley and the man who wasn't on the GOP primary ticket. He also breaks down Adam Schiff's tricks to face a Republican for California’s empty Senate seat. And you'll hear about the battle for the House with Sabato’s Crystal Ball man...
Feb 08, 2024•43 min•Ep. 18
To anyone who seriously follows electoral politics, today's guest will need no introduction. Nate Cohn joins Henry to cover the ins and outs of the polling world: everything from the voter file to polling aggregation; plus Nate's precinct analysis and the “Election Needle”. They also discuss the problems with issue polling and the demographic warning signs for the Democratic Party. And Henry's got a rant for Joe Biden, whose failure to strike a deal with Mike Johnson means missing out on a polit...
Feb 01, 2024•51 min
Hugh Hewitt joins Beyond the Polls for a rousing discussion of politics at home and abroad. They search for common threads and draw distinctions among the nations seeing populist waves; and they dig in to the Trump-Haley race for the Republican nomination. Plus, Henry reminds us that the Republican primary wasn’t the only contest held in New Hampshire. Listen to his rant about Joe Biden’s mediocre day in the Granite State and what it could mean for the general election.
Jan 25, 2024•54 min•Ep. 16
Nikki Haley's trying to make a stand in New Hampshire. But she has her work cut out for her. Henry reconvenes with his Granite State pal Danta Scala to discuss the turnout Haley needs and the challenges she'll have trying to drive two messages—one to moderates, another to conservatives—in New Hampshire's paid media blizzard. Plus Henry rants professorially this week to anatomize the Iowa results, and considers an effective Haley ad which utilizes a word we haven't heard much of from her campaign...
Jan 18, 2024•40 min•Ep. 15
One can’t help but wonder if Iowans are really going to go out in droves on a night with expected -35 degree wind chill to cast their votes for Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley or Vivek Ramaswamy? President of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition Steve Scheffler joins to remind us that the Hawkeye State is made up of hardy people. He and Henry cover the remaining candidates and what they might reasonably hope for on Monday’s Caucus. Henry also breaks down the keys to Trump’s successful ca...
Jan 11, 2024•35 min•Ep. 14
The election year has arrived and the quest to defeat Donald Trump continues, but there's a growing suspicion that this journey's heroes are living in a fantasy land. Henry sits down with Spectator Editor-in-Chief Ben Domenech to discuss these interesting times the country finds itself in—and be sure to stick around for Ben's placement of the candidates in the realm of Dungeons and Dragons and popular memes. And even after last episode's Festivus rant, Henry still has a bone to pick with DeSanti...
Jan 04, 2024•44 min•Ep. 13
It's our last episode of the year. Before we head into 2024, Henry airs his grievances with the wannabe heavyweights of this cycle. From Joe Biden’s dismal performance, Ron DeSantis' inept campaign, the perpetually grumpy Freedom Caucus that can’t execute on squat, and ambitious progressive Democrats who lack the chutzpah to challenge their party’s unpopular leader: Mr. Olsen's got a lot of problems with these people! He also chats with Monmouth University Polling Institute's Patrick Murray abou...
Dec 21, 2023•54 min•Ep. 12
While it would probably be unwise to bet on Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley winning the Republican nomination, Henry's back to remind you that it ain't impossible. This week's rant will get you up to speed on what to look out for. David Wasserman joins to break down a number of key tossups in the House and Senate, and to discuss whether last midterm’s resurgence of emphasis on regional candidate quality will hold up in congressional races during this presidential cycle.
Dec 14, 2023•47 min•Ep. 11
As promised, Beyond the Polls is back after just one week away! Henry sits down with RCP's Senior Elections Analyst Sean Trende to discuss the scenarios in the Iowa Caucus that could leave a path for Donald Trump's many Republican challengers. Then he and AEI's Senior Fellow Emerita Karlyn Bowman consider whether and how an extremely unpopular Joe Biden can overcome his grim numbers and win in November. And since it's the season for gifts, Henry has a rant and an ad of the week for you! Get his ...
Dec 07, 2023•48 min•Ep. 10
You’ve had your fill on turkey, now it’s time to get back to the races! In fact, we’re so eager to get back in that Beyond the Polls will be coming out weekly going forward. This week Henry sits down with John Hood of the Pope Foundation for a tour of North Carolina, a state set for competetive elections for both GOP contenders and in the general. Then James Johnson, cofounder of JL Partners, takes us through his findings on an electorate which largely disapproves of the presidential rematch tha...
Nov 30, 2023•45 min•Ep. 9
We're hearing that voters prefer a "generic candidate." Today Henry and his polling buddies consider this ideal alongside the less popular incarnate candidates before us. Kristen Soltis Anderson covers interesting shifts in Trump voter demographics and the weak challenges by his primary opponents; Spencer Kimball joins to discuss Biden's waning support with key Democratic blocs and his trailing Republicans in swing states; and Craig Gilbert dives into one of the essential swing states, clueing u...
Nov 09, 2023•57 min•Ep. 8
It's a triple state of play kind of day! Henry brings us along on a tour of key southern states. Rudy Bush of Texas breaks down Ted Cruz's fight with Colin Allred and Lone Star State's demographic changes. Then we move to pressing matters further East, where off year elections are underway. Al Cross takes us through the must-watch governor's race between Andy Beshear and Daniel Cameron in the Commonwealth of Kentucky; and J. Miles Coleman joins to pick apart campaigns in the political bellwether...
Oct 26, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Ep. 7
While a Trump/Biden rematch is looking more likely every day, Henry returns with another merry band of politicos to discuss many of the remaining unknowns left in this '24 election cycle. Charles Franklin (Director of the Marquette Law School Poll) provides a profile of the 1 in 5 Americans who make up the reluctant and "double doubter" categories; Matt Lewis of the Daily Beast breaks down a Republican Party in flux, and considers what consequences McCarthy's ouster will have; and Dennis Lennox ...
Oct 12, 2023•57 min•Ep. 6
Donald Trump looks like he’s running away with the GOP nomination, but several impressive opponents keep flailing away trying to catch him. Is this an exercise in futility or can one of them actually unseat him from his throne? To discuss the complicated feat facing 2024 hopefuls, Henry welcomes RMG Research Founder and President Scott Rasmussen for the Polling Barometer; NBC’s National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki on the Republican Rumble; and Nevada Independent CEO Jon Ralston on all...
Sep 28, 2023•59 min•Ep. 5
We all have a favorite dish at our favorite restaurant, and often enough we just can't help but to stick with it. Could this tendency explain the resounding lead Donald Trump enjoys in the Republican race? Are those 91 indictments resembling five star reviews to the GOP base, or are DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy simply unappetizing? Today Henry sits down with FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley and Cook Political Report's Amy Walter to go over the menu. He and Geoff consider the Democrat's lack o...
Sep 14, 2023•44 min•Ep. 4
The GOP is one debate into the 2024 primary season, and many are eager to see how the winds have turned. Henry's back with another batch of polling savants to assess. Politico's Steven Shepard considers whether Hurricane Idalia's big splash in Florida's Big Bend will breathe some life into Ron DeSantis' campaign. Brianne Pfannenstiel of The Des Moines Register explains the Iowa caucus, and fills us in on the key lessons to take away from the showing in 2016. And Ramesh Ponnuru joins to discuss l...
Aug 31, 2023•57 min•Ep. 3
It’s early days in the fight for 2024, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that it's shaping up like 2016 where the election was decided by voters who disliked both major party nominees. Henry calls these folks "Double Doubters" and doubles down with his guests this week to see who they are and what they think. Forecaster extraordinaire Harry Enten delivers insights that cut through post-2016 polling disillusionment; Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik has advice for Republican candidates who app...
Aug 17, 2023•54 min•Ep. 2
Presidential election season is approaching. Thankfully Henry Olsen and his guests are back to provide detailed examination of the facts, figures, twists and turns that will whittle down today's crowded field. We'll be going beyond the polls! Today we're hearing from Semafor's Dave Weigel to assess the Republican Rumble; we'll take a Democratic Deep Dive with Ruy Teixeira, politcal editor of The Liberal Patriot; AEI's Karlyn Bowman joins to guage the Polling Barometer; and Dante Scala, professor...
Aug 04, 2023•1 hr 21 min•Ep. 1
Our crazy election season is nearly over, and RealClearPolitics ’s Sean Trende and the American Enterprise Institute’s Karlyn Bowman help us unpack the polls and discuss the future of a post-Trump Republican Party. Only on Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen !
Oct 29, 2020•45 min•Season 1Ep. 30
Only ten days to go and about 1/3 of the ballots have already been cast. Can Donald Trump come from behind? Can the Republicans hold the Senate? Polling expert Karlyn Bowman and election analyst Jacob Rabushkin help us answer these questions. And a special guest appearance by the late Mao Tse Tung on the Ad of the Week – only on Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen ! Source
Oct 24, 2020•34 min•Season 1Ep. 29
President Trump has continued to drop in the polls and he’s spending his time in states he won handily four years ago. The Sabato Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik and the American Enterprise Institute’s Karlyn Bowman join Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen this week to tell us what it all portends. Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report also joined the podcast to run down the state of play in the U.S. House races. Source...
Oct 15, 2020•1 hr 8 min•Season 1Ep. 28
