The president's approval rating is down some, and given the amount on his plate this month, it's hard to pin down exactly what's driving it. Today, Henry considers the effects of the piling matters of import, including lingering interest in the Jeffrey Epstein case, the "One Big Beautiful Bill," deportations, and Trump's fight with the Federal Reserve; he breaks down the balancing act of appeals to the political base against converts and independents, and puts the approval rating numbers in cont...
Jul 24, 2025•48 min•Ep. 88
While we all got a glimpse of that fateful day in rural Pennsylvania a year ago, a relative few actually witnessed it—Butler is not, after all, the kind of town most take time to visit. But reporter Salena Zito not only found herself there that day, but close enough to feel the velocity of the assassin's bullets. She joins Henry to discuss the event and what it reveals about the character of President Trump, as illuminated in her best-selling, brand-new book: Butler: The Untold Story of the Near...
Jul 17, 2025•17 min•Ep. 87
Following the stunning defeat in November, there's been no shortage of speculation on the tough road ahead for Democrats, but to get a clearer sense of that camp's prospects, one would do well to chat with a member who's stuck it out through the party's past ups and downs. Michael Tomasky, Editor of The New Republic and Democracy: A Journal of Ideas , joins Henry today to discuss the Liberal/Progressive divide and the challenge of corralling the constituencies, all in the context of a party with...
Jul 10, 2025•45 min•Ep. 86
We're on theme this week! As Americans head toward the celebration of another free and independent trip around the sun, Henry sits down with AEI's Karlyn Bowman to discuss the latest findings on how citizens of different stripes feel about their country and their sentiments about being Americans, along with their handling of flags and familiarity with our founding documents. Happy Independence Day to all!
Jul 03, 2025•32 min•Ep. 85
Reports about tensions within MAGA-world might give the impression that a unified whole is finally cracking up, but Henry and Matthew Continetti know better than to conflate a political party with its reigning faction. The duo takes us through the last century of rightward squabbles, from the early days of rudderless reaction to the formation of movement conservatism, and on to Donald Trump's fateful ride down the escalator through to the present. Tune in for a detailed account of how the Republ...
Jun 26, 2025•46 min•Ep. 84
As we approach the summer, it appears that the world is retaking the initiative after months of trying to keep up with Donald Trump. Henry, going solo this week, starts by diving into Trump's latest favorability ratings and the generic congressional ballot, putting them into context with past election cycles. Then, he looks into polling on the news of urban unrest, strikes in the Middle East, and New York City's Mayoral Democratic primary to give us a sense of how events can stir the waters and ...
Jun 19, 2025•44 min•Ep. 83
It's the Henry & Harry Happy Hour this week, as CNN's Harry Enten drops in with his irrepressible pizzazz to talk political data. First, the two discuss Harry's findings on the dramatic swing of immigrant citizens' growing hawkishness on illegal immigration. There's some chatter on Trump's abiding approval ratings and speculation on how events (from unrest in LA to elections in NY and NJ) will determine the best course for the parties. Then the gents consider the qualities that make a pro in...
Jun 12, 2025•50 min•Ep. 81
We're back stateside with a primary election! Whatever you want to call this race, voters in New Jersey will take to the polls on Tuesday to select the nominees for their next governor. While Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli looks like a safe bet after landing Donald Trump's endorsement, six Democrats are still duking it out to win over constituents who want to see a fighter on the ticket. Matthew Klein of the Cook Political Report joins Henry to brief us on the issues on the table and the pe...
Jun 05, 2025•35 min•Ep. 80
Krystoff Mularczyk joins Henry ahead of the second round of Poland's presidential election on June 1st. Krystoff explains the history of the country's top parties, Civic Platform and Law and Justice, their development out of Solidarity, and how their break has devolved into the bitter fight before us. We also learn about the leading candidates, Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, along with a few dark horses worth watching. And if political dirty tricks get you excited — or if you'll find some...
May 29, 2025•48 min•Ep. 79
Henry's back with an all-rant episode to assess a couple of significant developments that party leaders ought to take notice of. First, he dives into the movements of President Trump's approval numbers over the past seven weeks to parse out what voters are truly reacting to. Then we're brought along for a deep analysis of Catalist's comprehensive " What Happened in 2024 " report to see how recent voter behavior has thwarted long-held projections for the electorate's subgroups....
May 22, 2025•50 min•Ep. 78
Romanian elections don't typically generate much excitement with an American audience, but Călin Georgescu's sudden rise, the annulment of last year’s vote, and the ban on his running in this year’s election grabbed our attention in this topsy-turvy decade of near-daily surprises. With the final round of 2025's election set for Sunday, Remus Stefureac, CEO of INSCOP Research, joins Henry today to discuss the scandals surrounding last year's canceled presidential race, the leading candidates, nat...
May 15, 2025•48 min•Ep. 77
Donald Trump's approval numbers have fallen precipitously since the election, but so far the drop has brought him back to the muddied earth he's used to rather than burying him underground. Given the upheaval in voter sentiment toward the parties over the past decade, it's hard to tell the dark horse from the frontrunner. So Henry summons NBC's national political correspondent Steve Kornacki from his tour on the Triple Crown circuit to help us get some traction on what these numbers could mean i...
May 08, 2025•41 min•Ep. 76
Ever wonder how Beltway insiders assess which congressional seats are potential flips, and therefore worth a cash infusion? Since the late 1990s, a favorite tool for pros has been the Cook Political Report's PVI — the Partisan Voter Index. Today, Henry catches up with Dave Wasserman to look into how the PVI is calculated and to help us understand what numbers mean; they review earlier reports to understand how the country trended toward partisan gridlock over the years, and consider how Donald T...
May 01, 2025•34 min•Ep. 75
When President Trump started singing a song about the most beautiful word in the English language, Pierre Polievre's march to 24 Sussex stalled. It's now a safe bet that Mark Carney will keep his job as prime minister after Monday's election, but it's unclear how he'll keep his expanded Liberal coalition happy in the years to come. Today, Henry sits down with Sean Speer of The Hub to discuss the sudden turn of fortune for Canada's top two parties. Among other things, they take a close look at th...
Apr 24, 2025•56 min•Ep. 74
In an era when American politics closely resembles a WWE cage match, strength and flair go a long way. That's why Navin Nayak of the Center for American Progress's Action Fund joins Henry to explain why his party is on the ropes. Navin argues that polished messaging and ideological extrapolation don't cut it in the digital media landscape. Voters like a confrontation, so to generate attention the Democrats will need to take a page from the Bernie/AOC tag team and start making a scene.
Apr 17, 2025•45 min•Ep. 73
Donald Trump is many things to many people, but the majority who put him back in the White House generally shared confidence in his ability to stabilize the economy after four years under Joe Biden. Ahead of Trump's early April tariff declaration, Kristen Soltis Anderson's team at Echelon Insights conducted their monthly Verified Voter Omnibus survey and keyed in on the electorate's views of the president's favorite word and his apex predator instincts applied to global exchange. The duo also de...
Apr 10, 2025•47 min•Ep. 72
Trump, Tariffs and an off-season Tuesday: those are the three Ts Henry tackles today in this all-rant episode! We start with an analysis of the consequences of the post-Reagan Washington Consensus and how Donald Trump built a political coalition around his resolute opposition to it. Then, Henry looks into the bet the administration is making while exploring the political ramifications to follow depending on how the global economy’s many actors respond. Finally, he pops the hood on the results of...
Apr 03, 2025•46 min•Ep. 71
America's dairyland has a springtime supreme court election that is expected to break turnout records. The ostensibly non-partisan race between judges Susan Crawford and Brad Schimel will determine whether liberals maintain control of the state judiciary, and that's grabbed the attention of the national parties. Henry brings back the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert to keep tabs on the big money and the stunning get-out-the-vote effort, along with a deep dive into Wisconsin's recent vo...
Mar 31, 2025•34 min•Ep. 70
One hears of our constitutional crisis often enough nowadays that an observer of American politics might wonder what we'll say if the event comes to pass. This week, Henry enlists AEI's Yuval Levin to identify and account for the pent-up tensions in a system designed to restrain ambitious rulers. The duo hammer out the roles of independent agencies in a government limited to three branches; stress test the originally unanticipated dilemma of congressional pliancy; and consult the schematic on th...
Mar 20, 2025•50 min•Ep. 69
Tragedy hit the once-marginalized psephological community last week when FiveThirtyEight closed shop. Henry hosts a celebration of life with two of its top contributors, Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley, to discuss the former outfit's inconceivable achievement of mainstreaming political data journalism. The trio digs into the explosive history of innovative election modeling and explores the lingering unknowns while looking to the future for a field tasked with telling the human story behin...
Mar 13, 2025•43 min•Ep. 68
Henry and The Cook Political Report's Amy Walter reconvene after Donald Trump's address before Congress. They wonder how Tuesday's performance will play with the voters outside Trump's base who won him the election; consider the risks attendant to his coalition in making moves on Ukraine and tariffs; and think through partisan mandate strategy in a country with a teeter-totter electorate. Plus, they look to 2026 and beyond to speculate on who might help the flat-footed opposition regain its bala...
Mar 06, 2025•57 min•Ep. 67
To have any attachment to conservatism since the Reagan renewal is to have at least a glancing acquaintanceship with the Heritage Foundation. Under its current president, Kevin Roberts, that pivotal institution is shifting gears to settle this century's conservative-populist synthesis. Kevin and Henry sit down to dive into Roberts' new book, Dawn's Early Light: Taking Back Washington to Save America . Along with making the serious case for the promised Golden Age, the two discuss the spiritual w...
Feb 27, 2025•47 min•Ep. 66
Germany's parliamentary elections will take place on Sunday, and for the first time since the fall of the Third Reich, a nationalist party is a major player. To start, Henry breaks down the rules of the game and assesses the polling for the many parties in the mix. Next, he's joined by Katja Hoyer to discuss the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's stunning rise along with a deep dive into the factions within that will vie for control of Deutschland's now-second largest party. And if you're loo...
Feb 20, 2025•35 min•Ep. 65
Despite the kerfuffle that President Trump is initiating a Constitutional crisis, the confusion and frustration surrounding his executive actions fit within a fairly common modern trend: Congress’s institutional inaction leaves a power vacuum which the president sets out to fill. In anticipation of the Supreme Court weighing in, Henry sits down with the inestimable John Yoo to discuss the larger constitutional questions that Trump’s test cases are likely to settle. Tune in for a refresher on the...
Feb 13, 2025•51 min•Ep. 64
Conventional wisdom has it that the Democratic Party lost in November after moving too far to the left on its social and economic stances. But these are hardly conventional times, so why not let an outsider have a say? Henry sits down with Maurice Mitchell, National Director of the Working Families Party, to discuss the WFP’s aim to win elections by offering a progressive alternative to the corporate-aligned Democratic Party. Maurice takes us through the WFP’s break with Democrats in 1998 and it...
Feb 06, 2025•47 min•Ep. 63
A quarter century after publishing his famous book about the ascendant bohemian bourgeoise ("Bobo") upper class, New York Times columnist David Brooks has found cause to reconsider the new elite. He and Henry sit down to discuss the vanities of that insular group, the incongruence of their public espousals and private behavior, and how some form of nationalist populism was the public's best available means of course correction.
Jan 30, 2025•56 min•Ep. 62
Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics' Senior Elections Analyst and author of The Lost Majority, returns to share his insights on America's versicolored electorate. He and Henry discuss the country's small-C conservative disposition that Donald Trump won over with his "revolution in common sense". They consider the profound difference between the start of Trump's second term, exemplified by his day one preparedness, along with the challenges he'll face in juggling his coalition's disparate priorities. ...
Jan 23, 2025•45 min•Ep. 61
If you wanna win an election, you gotta build a coalition—just don't expect it to last forever. As we enter the second quarter of this American century, Henry sits down with Karl Rove to discuss the coalition he helped forge at the millennium's beginning. But they don't stop there! Karl and Henry find valuable lessons in the Republican Party's working-class appeal during the McKinley era, on to the Compassionate Conservatism of the aughts, and finally to Donald Trump's assertive MAGA movement.
Jan 17, 2025•50 min•Ep. 60
Beyond the Polls is back! This week, Henry sits down with the Washington Post's Jason Willick to go over Donald Trump's haul ahead of his second inauguration. The duo speculates on everything from the president-elect's comments about desired new territories, defense aspirations, and tariffs, before considering how all of this fits with the MAGA coalition and how his maneuvers will play with the judiciary that Trump helped build in term one. Plus, Henry surveys the electorate's sentiments on pres...
Jan 09, 2025•50 min•Ep. 59
For our last journey beyond the polls of the year, we examine the Democratic Party's options post-2024. Jonathan Cowan, president of the centrist think tank Third Way , joins Henry to explain how the left wing took over the party vessel and how they ran it off the tracks. They consider whether Democrats will get the message in time to compete in 2028 and go over the playbook necessary for those center-left candidates who are serious about winning elections. Henry's off for the holidays, but stay...
Dec 19, 2024•50 min•Ep. 58
