Why No-Run First Innings Are a Trap (Ep. 165) - podcast episode cover

Why No-Run First Innings Are a Trap (Ep. 165)

Apr 22, 202239 minEp. 165
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Episode description

Thomas Viola is joined by Jason Weingarten, also known as Spreadapedia, to discuss what makes no run first innings a bad bet and to find out why so many bettors keep falling for those bets. 

Sponsors: 

Sleeper - Download the Sleeper app today to play their new over/under game. Use promo code "bettingpros" when you deposit and Sleeper will match your deposit up to $100. 

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Transcript

Speaker 1

Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros podcast. For those of you who are wondering right now, hey, who the heck is this new guy?

Speaker 2

I'm Thomas Biola.

Speaker 1

I am thrilled to be a part of the team. Here ed Betting Pros. A little bit about me. I am a New Jersey native who has been lucky enough to make his way out to Las Vegas and the wide wide world of sports betting that has erupted from that. I'm a long suffering Jets fan, I'm an equally suffering American lover of soccer, and most importantly of all, I'm here because I want to help us all win some

money together. And the best way to do that, especially when you are fully admitted not a sharp better like myself, is to talk to some sharp betters. And today we have one of the sharpest. That is none other than my friend, Jason Weingarten aka spread Apedia. Jason, How are you doing today?

Speaker 3

Pretty good? Thanks for having me on.

Speaker 1

It is a pleasure to have you. I am really excited to talk with you. Be his baseball season. It is in full swing now and one of the things that you're seeing all across the gambling Twitter, no run first, Everyone and their mother seems to be betting on these nerfis right now. But I've noticed that you particularly have been saying, Hey, wait a second, guys, this isn't a good bet, and this is a trap that a lot

of betters are falling into. What is it about no run first innings that makes these makes them attractive to gamblers? And why is it that that is actually a flawed logic.

Speaker 4

Well, yeah, I guess I shouldn't be surprised that we're seeing so much attention on this kind of stuff, but it always does surprise me because I don't spend a lot of time on Instagram or on a lot of these social media focused gambling and sort of things, and I'll see it all of a sudden, I'll be like, wow, Like, you know, this guy has seventeen thousand followers, this guy has forty thousand followers, like, and he's just viewing constant nonsense.

So I'm just kind of you know, I'm in my own little world when it comes to gambling, and all of a sudden, I start seeing all these people talking about no score first innings, and these are bets I used to make when I was in college, you know, which talking fifteen years ago now almost a long time ago, when I was completely clueless, had no clue what I was doing, and playing on a five dimes account, you know, from the beach to Newport, I would bet no score

first innings and I would lose. I would lose all the time, and I would have no clue why I was losing. And it took years. It really took years to figure out what I was doing wrong in that I.

Speaker 3

Was being an idiot exactly.

Speaker 4

But yeah, basically, these no score first inning bets are very attractive because you're done after six outs and people see, you know, two good pictures and they say, oh, well, these guys can get six outs very quickly.

Speaker 3

You know, I can.

Speaker 4

I can bet this and be done in fifteen minutes. But doesn't work like that. It's i mean, the first inning, the first of the ninth innings, the highest scoring endings.

Speaker 3

In baseball to begin with.

Speaker 4

But you're getting the top of both both of the lineups, and you're getting pitchers that aren't necessarily settled in you know, people, people tend to have these sort of preconceived assumptions about how how baseball works and how pitching works and the pitchers just come out and could locate the strike zone and you know, put their curveball where they want it on the first pitch of the game. It's it doesn't work like that.

Speaker 1

You know.

Speaker 3

Some guys need need a couple of pitches.

Speaker 4

Some guys need twenty pitches to kind of feel their groove and you know, get the ball moving the way they like it. And again, you're you're getting the top of both teams lineups, their best three hitters. And if you're not batting your best three hitters and top of the lineup, you're, you know, you're doing it wrong. And you know, roster construction, lineup construction. So I really think

that people are just being taught the wrong things. And I mean literally, it's it's like the blind leading the blind. You're you're listening to someone who's clueless telling you to do something something negative, ev that you have no clue you know what to do in the first place, and you're laying a price or almost always laying one twenty

one thirty one forty. I mean, I've seen people, you know, laying minus one seventies and losing it and betting it again, you know, and telling the problem I have, you know, just to sort of clarify, I'm not telling you don't bet whatever you want.

Speaker 3

Hey, it's your life, it's your money, and you want to be stupid, you know.

Speaker 4

I'm not here to tell you, you.

Speaker 3

Know what, what to have fun on.

Speaker 4

You know, it's your your Your betting experience is your betting experience. But the reason I bring this up, and I talked about it on Twitter mostly is because when you have a platform and you work for a large company, you either work for a media company or you work for a book, you know, and you're putting out content on behalf of them, and you're teaching people bad habits. You're teaching them the incorrect way of doing things.

Speaker 3

It's one thing to harm yourself.

Speaker 4

I don't have a problem if you're gonna lose your own money, but when you start losing other people's money and making a game of it and and telling them, you know that that that this is fun and this is a good way to sweat baseball, you know, I'm I'm definitely slightly judging these people the same way I judge people that bet the field on a craps table, you know. Or it's just it's it's it's stupid, bad gambling, and you shouldn't be teaching other people to be stupid.

You want to do it, do it yourself. But encouraging other people is where I draw the line.

Speaker 1

I completely feel the same way I as someone who is in a media company and is supposed to be giving people bets and trying to make people money. I don't care if I lose every last time that I have gambling. I mean I do care. That would be very suboptimal. But I take it way more personally because I am giving other people advice. There are people who are coming to this platform that are looking for good bets, that are looking for sound advice so that they can

go out and try and make money. It would be predatory not to be trying to give them the best advice I can. And you break down no run first innings, and I believe you look at it and the number is actually something like there's a run fifty three percent of the time in the first inning.

Speaker 4

I think it's closer closer to fifty one, forty nine to fifty one. It depends what the situation is, but yeah, in general, you're gonna score a run on the first ning. More often than not. And it's a price thing. A lot of it's price things. So if you were to tell me that I was getting, you know, plus one fifty or plus one twenty five even on every no score like, it's a different conversation. But exactly a lot of these people who are giving out these bets are

are not price sensitive at all. You know, they have no idea that it might be a good bet at minus one twenty and be a bad bet at minus one thirty or minus one thirty five or whatever number they're giving it out at. And that's the problem is you're either clueless or you're you know, you're doing this on purpose.

Speaker 3

You know you're you're you're you're doing this knowing that you're wrong.

Speaker 4

I don't. I mean, obviously one is worse than the other, but both are bad.

Speaker 3

And I pointed this out the first time. I talked about it too.

Speaker 4

But it's not just the content creators that that this is an issue.

Speaker 3

This means that everybody in.

Speaker 4

The entire chain, the editors, the the you know, the people on the tech side, and not a single person is willing to say, hey, man, I think some of this information we're giving out is you know incorrect, And I mean it's it's not a single person failure. It's a failure of you know, multiple people, and nobody's willing to point out.

Speaker 3

That you know, you can give out that gambling advice.

Speaker 1

I mean, it's it's much more of an industry wide issue, especially on this side, because we people are trying to give out picks. You're if you're a novice, better who's just going Okay, I'm getting started. I'm trying to figure out where to go, who to follow because I don't really have my own opinions yet.

Speaker 2

I'm just getting into this.

Speaker 3

You don't.

Speaker 1

There's no system for going, oh wait, this guy knows what he's talking about versus this guy who doesn't. Because you're a novice, you you don't know the answers to that. Everybody just seems like they're giving out stuff and you're like, Okay, well, I'm just gonna believe this guy, and you're picking someone at random.

Speaker 2

And that's how.

Speaker 1

Betters can fall into another huge trap, which are touts. And we've seen that so many times. I mean, we all know the stories and one of the most famous ones that there is. It blows your mind because you go how on earth are people falling for this? It's a scam, but they they just don't know.

Speaker 4

Well, I think a lot of it people want to offload the risk of winning to somebody else. Same thing when you invest in a hedge funder, you invest with an investment manager. It's not it's no longer your responsibility whether you win lose the person that you're paying and you know you've you've basically you know, you know, you just don't have that responsibility anymore. It's it's it's a great psychological thing for a lot of people, and all they're looking for is to win.

Speaker 3

They don't want to they don't want to learn.

Speaker 4

You know, there's a difference between wanting to learn to be a better gambler and buying picks and plugging the picks into your accounts and you know, my guy wins, my guy loses, but you.

Speaker 3

Have no clue what you're doing.

Speaker 4

And a lot of those people and I think one of the hardest things about you know, selling picks or even having a social media following and giving out picks for free.

Speaker 3

If you like something, even.

Speaker 4

A prop you know, I like, I'll give you actually a real example earlier this week, I was like, I like Alex Cobb to have over strikeouts at you know, on the prop builder, at every alternate number on the over, and he ended up getting hurt and getting pulled with four strikeouts, so they all ended up losing.

Speaker 3

But you could bet from five.

Speaker 4

It was like five, six, seven, eight, nine to ten or something, and ten was thirty to one, and he had he had pitched a ten strikeout game in his first game of the season. So I just tweeted out with a screenshot like, look like thirty to one. I have an eight dollars limit on this, so I'm just going to tweet it out to tell people, you know, what a good bet this is if they can bet it. You know, one hundred bucks at thirty to one's a nice, you know, nice return on a guy getting ten strikeouts.

Speaker 3

So I tweeted it out.

Speaker 4

A couple of minutes later, without me even betting on it, it had been bet down to fifteen to one, which again it probably didn't take a ton of money to do that. But when you give out good bets, the line moves, and when you're when you're getting paid to give out bets and the line moves, your customers are getting a worse line, and it's it's not fair to them to do that number one, number two.

Speaker 3

Even if you tell people you know, this is no longer a bet past you.

Speaker 4

Know, minus one twenty or minus whatever, just make it up a number, the people are still gonna bet it like and that it does not matter what you tell them. The people are still say, oh, I'm only getting five cents words, I'm only getting ten cents worths that I still want the action.

Speaker 3

There's nothing you can do about that.

Speaker 4

They don't understand that over time, they're gonna end up losing money when you're winning money because of the price differences.

Speaker 3

Uh.

Speaker 4

And then the third thing is, you know, and then this is really going to the Springer Taut flow chart. But if you're not moving the market yourself, then why should anybody else want to buy your picks? You know if if if the market doesn't respect your picks, then what's the point?

Speaker 3

You know.

Speaker 4

So there's there's a lot of issues with touts that, I mean, it could be a three hour podcast just talking about.

Speaker 3

This this particular subject.

Speaker 4

But the main issue that I want to point out with with touts, I think is to at least educate the audience that if somebody is charging fifty dollars a month for the information or one hundred dollars a month, they are.

Speaker 3

Probably not a winning better.

Speaker 4

And I don't mean this to be me and to any people that are charging low prices, but if you don't value your work more than one hundred dollars a month, I mean, what what sort of economics in this gambling business would make sense to sell this information for one hundred dollars. I want to sell my bets for tens of thousands of dollars. If somebody wants wants, you know, day to day access to me and discuss, you know, to talk to me all the time, I mean, it's

worth real money. So if you're not valuing, if the tout himself isn't valuing his information, you know, and obviously they're gonna say, well, I want to get it out to more people and this and that.

Speaker 3

Okay, But then it goes back to the flow chart.

Speaker 4

If you're getting out to more people less money, the market's either not respecting your opinion or you're killing.

Speaker 3

The number before it's going out.

Speaker 4

So you know, they're very very few situations where I think paying for information makes sense and truthfully, at one point or another, everybody's gonna end up paying for some picks. You know, I myself am guilty of that. It was fifteen years ago. I was in college. I had no clue what I was doing. But you know, you're gonna buy a pick, you're gonna buy a package or whatever,

and you'll you'll learn from the experience. But my advice is that if you're buying something for fifty dollars or one hundred dollars, you might win a couple of games.

It might might be worth the action, you know, just from getting getting action standpoint, But just keep in mind that the person you're buying from doesn't value their information enough to bet it enough to move the market, or the market doesn't respect them, and that they don't respect enough to charge, you know, hundreds, if not thousands of dollars for it. So you know, you get what you pay for. And that's that's my towt Brant.

Speaker 1

And the other factor there is if you are paying for this information, then you also in order to turn a profit, because you're already down one hundred bucks or fifty bucks or whatever you're paying for that price. You're down that money to start, which means you need to hit at a higher percentage just to break even anyway, So you're just making it even harder for yourself.

Speaker 4

Absolutely, And I mean there's a there's a tout calculator that shows you what, you know, if you're paying this much, how much you have to win at what percent to break even? And like I said, if if the person selling the picks could make money, they would already have you know, they would have people backing them. If they don't,

if they're under capitalized. If look, if you're if you're successful in anything in gambling, whether it's NFL or NFL props or baseball baseball props, all the way down to you know, USL soccer and Minor League UFC and minor league baseball and whatever obscure market, you're good. If you can win and win, you know, sustainably in long term, people will find you.

Speaker 3

And if you don't have money, you know, there are plenty.

Speaker 4

Of people out there who will gladly throw money at you if you're a winner. Touting is is does not make sense in very many cases. There are obviously always exceptions, and there are you know, I know I know several people who do it fairly successfully and you know, as fairly as possible. And you know, obviously getting into the tout world is a personal decision, and some people do it because they're they're not as you know, aggressive with risk,

as you know, other other people might be. Some people like you know, some people like the having the customers and the fans, and some.

Speaker 3

People do it because it's a good way to book people.

Speaker 4

Like you know, you charge fifty bucks or one hundred bucks for tout information, you get a whole bunch of gamblers signed up, and then you could book them on a you know, like like you and things.

Speaker 3

Stuff like that happens happens all the time.

Speaker 4

So I mean there's there's a lot of ways, a lot of different ways to make money in the gambling world. And I think that's what draws a lot of the personalities to it, is you can you have the flexibility to make money in so many different ways. But I think Taudy it is is, you know, not one of the best. I think there are way better avenues for making money in this business.

Speaker 1

Now, another point that you brought up was the number moving on people and them not realizing that the price they're getting a bet at is a bad price. One of the biggest traps that betters fall into, that old saying you're not paying juice if you're winning. That's the most erroneous saying in sports betting. I feel like line shopping is one of the most important things you can do.

I try to never and granted for some betters, like if you're betting ten twenty bucks a game and no price with that, I'm not trying to unit shame anybody here, But if that's what you're betting, then okay, maybe five cents of jews doesn't shake out to too much for you, But as a practice anyway, it is good to just be going, okay, I want to bet on this game.

Speaker 2

Let me see what the line is.

Speaker 4

It this ten twenty dollars and you're not pretty sensitive. What you're doing is you're creating a bad habit that's going to be harder to break when you decide to up your unit to fifty dollars or one hundred dollars or whatever whatever you get to, and eventually it'll add

up to losing money. And one of the things I've said a lot recently is that being successful and gambling a lot of times I mean, obviously it has to do with working hard and you know, betting good numbers and knowing what you're doing, et cetera.

Speaker 3

But a lot of gambling is discipline.

Speaker 4

And you know, unlearning bad habits, I think is the hardest thing that novice and new gamblers have to deal with that they're you know, if you learn the wrong way or a bad way of doing things, it's gonna take a lot of work to break that habit, just like break in any bad habit.

Speaker 1

Well, I definitely personally fell into this habit just a little bit when I got started out because I said, Okay, I have money loaded up into one account, so that's the account I'm going to bet on. And I get that for new betters, maybe you don't want to have accounts everywhere. It's a matter of convenience there, but at least being aware and getting into that practice is so crucial.

I haven't even upped my unit play that much over the course of my betting career, but I still as a habit, you have to know, let me go line shopping, let me go and see what these lines are elsewhere, and you don't even need to have a you know, you don't even need to have an account with every book to go do that as a matter of fact, and here comes the plug. You can do that using the Betting Pros app. If you go online, download the

app right now. If you're looking for free picks advice bettingpros dot com, we have you covered with tips from over one hundred and fifty experts to make it easy for you to cash out. Download the app to get sports betting alerts, and this is the big part. You'll get notified a favorablets based online movements, consensus picks from some accurate experts around the industry, and vetted systems in play.

Betting Pros monitors all of the major sports books, most accurate experts, and top systems to identify the best betting opportunities. Download today in the Apple or Google Play stores. And the important thing there is Betting Pros has a Betting Pros has a feature where you can just go and compare lines from across a bunch of different books, both in Vegas and throughout the country. And that is just so convenient. That is one of those awesome tools that

you can go and use. And even if you're not going to.

Speaker 2

Use our tool, I hope you use our tool.

Speaker 1

But even if you're not going to go and check stuff like that, like that out because it is a convenient way to see that you're getting.

Speaker 2

The best line somewhere, and that's so important. Jason.

Speaker 1

The next thing that I wanted to ask you, what are some of the other mistakes that betters typically make when they're just starting out that maybe we haven't covered here so far.

Speaker 4

Well, there's, uh, there's plenty of things to look for, especially with baseball when you're getting content, and you know, one of the things I've talked about before, it's just there's there's so much content out there, Like there's just bound to be bad content by just by definition of how much there is, and it sucks.

Speaker 3

I get it.

Speaker 4

Like there's there's so many hours to fill and so much stuff to do that sometimes some some incorrect info is gonna get through, And a lot of times it's not necessarily somebody trying to to be bad. They just don't know any better, and no one's ever corrected them and told them, hey, that's not the way to do things.

Speaker 3

So, like one one thing I see a.

Speaker 4

Lot of is uh uh, you know, an analyst or a host on a show, say I don't want to lay minus two fifty with the Dodgers today, but I'm comfortable laying the Dodgers minus one and a half on the run line.

Speaker 3

That's that's somebody who doesn't know what they're doing.

Speaker 4

They think they're getting value, you know, laying one and a half at a lower number. It's not how baseball works. Like you know, the amount of times I've laid a huge favorite and one by one run and you know, versus the amount of times i've you know, I want to run line and I don't. I don't bet, you know, I don't necessarily bet the run line when I bet

the money line. Actually bet very few run lines, you know, probably one of the smallest you know markets, I do, actually, But but I I think that's that's a huge thing. When you see somebody saying bet the run line because it's cheaper, that's probably somebody you don't want to take advice from them because they don't have any clue what

they're doing. Then there's the batter versus pitcher people. And I think a lot of this has to do with prop betting, and a lot of the legal books have you know, an emphasis on offering as many markets as they can, so you know, unheard of if you if you go through a menu for a lot of these sites, the DraftKings, a FanDuel at MGM. Mostly I'm talking about non Novada books, but if you go through some of these legal apps during a game, like you could bet on every pitch, you.

Speaker 3

Could bet on every player to hit a home run.

Speaker 4

The depth of the offerings at these legal books are so much deeper than anything we were dealing with in the past couple of years, you know, in the old gambling world. So with these these deep, deep markets, you have a lot of people coming over from fantasy or DFS or that have a background and you know something else, not necessarily you know, sports betting, but sports, you know, some sports adjacent stuff, and they're very into these prop markets.

A lot of a lot of people just specialize in talking about props, football props, baseball props.

Speaker 3

Whatever, and they win a lot.

Speaker 4

And you know, the thing is is if you really win a lot on props, a lot of these books are gonna limit you pretty quickly if you're not giving.

Speaker 3

Them action on you know, NFL sides and totals.

Speaker 4

And even if you are, you might still get limited because they just don't want the prop action you know, from from known sharps. But you know, you get these people who who not only bet props, but a lot of touts think they need to put a lot of analysis behind their picks, and that people want a paragraph justification behind everything. And that's something I've never been good at, because you know, I make a bet zones like why

do you like this bad? Because I like the number, you know, because the number was was higher than what I thought it should be. I can't elaborate a paragraph or two paragraphs on that answer. I could just tell you because the number was not what I thought it was, you know, or what.

Speaker 3

I think it should be. That's the answer a lot of the time.

Speaker 1

And and when you when you talk about the number isn't what I thought it was, it's not so much that there's a system there. It's that this is years of experience and just years of doing this where you are at the point where you can just look at a board and identify a number and go, I just know that that's not right.

Speaker 3

Yeah, sort of. I mean, sometimes you know your own opinion.

Speaker 4

You're always you know when you're when you're bookying or Betty, and you know, your own opinion always comes into play and the ability to hold you know, to take on risk or you know that more you always say, well, like I think that's you know, that's gonna win. And the numbers off but mostly I mean mostly numbers based, and you know, you have to be able to quantify your edge and know you know, well, this is four percent, this is three percent, this is you know, half percent whatever.

You know, it's a lot easier to know, you know what you're dealing with as opposed to to you know, just blindly fired and saying, oh, I have an edge, like it's it's better to be able to quantify quantify your edge. But but yeah, I mean there there are situations like prop markets where I could just kind of glance at them and you know, years of experience can can help you, you know, get something that might take somebody else slightly more time just you know, click click click, I'm done.

Speaker 3

You have been known to do that on occasion. But you can't get sloppy.

Speaker 4

If you get sloppy and lazy, you know, and start taking and slightly worse numbers, your your performance will you know, decay over time and uh, there are no margins for airs when it comes to the gambling. Really, I mean,

you're very very thin margins all around. But what I was saying about the batter verse picture staff is you get people that come over from from Fantasy or from DFS and they're like, oh, like, I'm gonna use batter versus picture stats to determine this guy should be a home run prop bet today.

Speaker 3

You know, I just shake my head at stuff like.

Speaker 4

That, like it's another it's just clueless people, you know, kind of drawing, you know, conclusions from from noise and it you can make money, like it's fun, but but you're just you're throwing darts a lot of the time. Especially the batteris picture stuff is huge red flag.

Speaker 2

Now why is it such a red flag? What is it about batter versus pictures Specifically?

Speaker 4

It's almost completely insignificant what somebody did and six.

Speaker 3

At bats or ten at that. You know, when you you're getting into to hire.

Speaker 4

You know like, well this guy, you know, maybe like Freddie Freeman versus and trying to think somebody Jacob to Graham like they've played each other, you know, tens of times. It doesn't matter the sample size, it's so small relative. It just you're drawing conclusions from stuff that you really should should not be drawing those conclusions from. And you know, like it's it's just a it's a bad way of doing things, and it's a bad foundation to start thinking like that.

Speaker 2

That makes sense.

Speaker 1

It's you're looking at a sample size that's maybe on the high end, fifty or so data points, and that is nowhere near enough of a sample size too.

Speaker 2

Be it actually extrapolating something like this?

Speaker 3

Yeah, be really, man, you really shouldn't like thank it's crazy.

Speaker 1

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back to the show. You talk about investing in baseball cards. Do you use that knowledge of the baseball card market to impact your betting picks or vice versa? Do those two roads intersect at all?

Speaker 4

The gambling and the baseball cards do have some intersection. Mostly, the reason I invest in baseball cards is is as a derivative to futures markets, because a lot of times you know you might have a guy who's a short favorite in a Rookie of the Year market, but his card is cheap, you know, or relatively cheap, and you might have a guy like like Julio Rodriguez and Spencer Torkosen and Bobby Witt. They're all real high. They're the top three front runners for the AL Rookie of the Year.

Their cards are prohibitively expensive. So I sold a Julio Rodriguez card for about three thousand dollars before the season, and I use that money to invest in Julio Rodriguez's Rookie of the Year future at like sixteen to one, because I was basically assuming that that card didn't have sixteen times.

Speaker 3

The value in it.

Speaker 4

If he if he's as good as I thought he could be, and if he does win the Rookie of Year, I could just buy that card back for you know, a stupid amount of money if I really wanted it still. But it's not going to go up sixteen times in value, which is what I would get off the you know, off the future. So sometimes you want to own the card, and sometimes you want to sell the card and use

that money to make a pet. But I basically use the baseball cards as a way to play around in the futures market with exposure to guys for you know different It's basically reasons being that the futures market might might have a different price, you know, than the value of the card or vice versa.

Speaker 2

That makes perfect sense.

Speaker 1

I mean, you can actually balance these markets against each other. And the baseball card betting market is almost a little bit like gambling. You're playing essentially a version of the stock market. So why wouldn't you take that information and transfer it over to the betting market. That makes perfect sense to me.

Speaker 4

The baseball card market, though, has a lot more sort of barriers than betting. Like betting, you find a number, you make a bet, you win or lose. Baseball cards got a list it on eBay. eBay is gonna take twelve percent. You want to get it.

Speaker 3

Graded, that's you know, more money time.

Speaker 4

There's a huge backlog with the PSA grading right now, so you know, the cost a lot of times. The profit margin in the baseball card is not nearly what you think it's going to be, especially when you get done with all the vee and everyone else taking their their cuts in the process. So I mean, you really got to hit it. You either got to really hit it out of the park. You know, you're not looking to buy like a five hundred dollars card and sell

for six hundred and seven hundred bucks. You're hoping to buy a five hundred dollars card sell for you know, two thousand and three thousand. You know, if you're not thinking like that, you're probably not going to get great returns.

Speaker 3

And you got to do the cards because you like them.

Speaker 4

But for those with incredible amounts of disposable income, the baseball cards and basketball card markets are incredibly.

Speaker 2

That makes sense to me.

Speaker 1

You've got to be looking for a higher ROI in the baseball card market than you do in the betting market, just because, like you said, of the time, energy, effort, and extraneous costs that go into that.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Speaker 2

Now, now I.

Speaker 1

Want to ask you one more question here. I've got a weird one for you. In the stock market, like we just talked about, global issues can affect domestic stock prices, but no one really thinks about how these same issues like create efficiencies in the betting markets. Is there any time that you found this to be the case in the past where global events have actually helped create an edge for gamblers that no one's really seen. Do you

see anything like that in the world today? Like does even Russia Ukraine manage to have some kind of impact in gambling.

Speaker 4

There was a lot of stuff during COVID that kind of had unusual you know, there's no precedent for the sort of how do you handicap this?

Speaker 3

He just kind of had to make some assumptions.

Speaker 4

But I remember, like there was some Nicaragua and baseball that I would watch and the guys were playing with masks on, you know, on the field, and I was just like, well, the team that's playing with the masks is gonna play worse. I know very little about Nicaragua and baseball, more than most, but still very little overall.

Speaker 3

But like I know that the.

Speaker 4

Shorts stop wearing a mask is you know, gonna just it's like having like a restrictor played on a carburetor. Like it's not fun to go out and play sports in a mask. You know, it's not fun around you know, you're just it's gonna impact your performance, especially if you've never done it before. So like I knew to bet against the team wearing the mask. Just it's stuff like that, like.

Speaker 3

Or there'd be the Remember there.

Speaker 4

Was a situation it was like Bolivia and soccer or something.

Speaker 3

Maybe it was Eruguay, I don't remember what country it was.

Speaker 4

It was definitely South America, where like the entire team got COVID the day of the match and they had to play you know, the like reserve side, the academy side, and so the market was just you know, it was just NonStop action on the other team, and like some books pulled at, some books are just like whatever bet it. So you get like random situations like that where entire

teams are being replaced by academy sides. I'm trying to think, oh, yeah, so vaccines teams, teams would have like mass vaccine days and you know, they'd all get get the vaccine at the same time, and like they'd go out and play like crap the next day.

Speaker 3

This is an MLB.

Speaker 4

Like a lot of there were pitchers who were missing their next starts, you know, because just the vaccine took a couple of days out of them. But like I just kind of look on Twitter and oh, the Yankees all got their vaccine today, let's back against them tomorrow. And those mostly won. They weren't like one hundred percent, but they they hit it a you know, quite a quite a large clip.

Speaker 3

There were NHL teams too.

Speaker 4

I just knew, like, oh, look, this NHL team all got their vaccine, Like they're not going to go around and skate tomorrow night like they. I think the NHL ones were close to one hundred percent. So yeah, I mean, if you're willing to kind of extrapolate some some news and make some assumptions yourself, there's there's some good stuff. But Russia Ukraine, there hasn't been anything, just because I mean the markets, there's KHL, there's you know, there's there's Russian and Ukrainean soccer.

Speaker 3

I don't know anything about it, but in general, there hasn't been many.

Speaker 4

Exploitable that geopolitical betting angles with with the Russia Ukraine stuff anything, I can't think of anything. There's a lot of table tennis going on out of those countries. During COVID that was crazy. People were betting a lot on underground table tennis, but I haven't heard much about that lately.

Speaker 3

Unfortunately. Those were those are some interesting days.

Speaker 1

I feel like that market was definitely the definition of filling a need at a time, and maybe wasn't the burgeoning future of sport.

Speaker 3

Yeah, that was.

Speaker 4

There were some crazy times when COVID, when everything was shut down. There was Nicaraguan baseball, Nick groguen basketball. I think Taiwan had some basketball, might have even been women's basketball for a while.

Speaker 3

Belarus was the center of the sports world and there was.

Speaker 4

A table tennis, There was out locked golf, and people were betting on game simulations like they plug in a PlayStation.

Speaker 3

And it was some weird times, man Like, I don't know what to tell you. Those are some dark days.

Speaker 1

They trust me, You don't have to tell me twice about that. I fully remember those days myself. I was one of the people that plugged in their PlayStation, went on Twitch and was just running Madden games. I wasn't taking any action on them, but I was just doing it to do some play by play stuff and just occupy my time. I am very thankful that we had done with the bulk of COVID at this point. Jason, thank you so much for joining me today, my friend.

It was a pleasure talking to you. A gold mine of information for new betters and experience better is alike, things that maybe you don't realize that you're doing in your betting habits that you can try and break in better practices that you can be putting into place.

Speaker 2

It was a fantastic conversation. I really appreciate it. Where can people find you on social media and all the awesome work you're doing.

Speaker 4

You find me on Twitter at Spreadipedia, and then you can find me on Vson usually on I'm on the Numbers Game with Peel Alexander on Wednesday mornings, usually Wednesday at eight am. I'm usually on a couple couple other times throughout the week on different shows. And then I have my own podcast, wide World of Winegarden, which comes out almost daily on Visin and iHeartRadio and Spotify and YouTube and.

Speaker 3

Wherever you can get iHeartRadio podcasts.

Speaker 4

So yeah, I'm usually usually available one way or the other in some form of media.

Speaker 1

All right, well that is going to do it for us here once again, Thank you so much, Jason. I hope you have a great rest of your day and guys, best of luck with anything you're betting this weekend. I hope you have a lot of fun and you know, let's catch those tickets

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