Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host Dan Harris with me is Matt Prout. Can find us on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady and at Sports Talk Matt. Matt, how are you today?
I'm good. I'm really good. It's it's energized. I'm excited to talk football today. This slate is not that pretty with COVID problems everywhere, but yeah, let's go.
We're gonna have to do a lot of dancing in this slate, but let's get to it. A couple of things before we start. I remind everybody about Discord. Come and talk with us, talk with other people at are interested in sports betting, bettingpros dot com slash chat. Matt, I don't know how many people are in there at this point. I mean, it was six fifty seven.
It's over eight hundred. I'm my last look, it's over eight hundred. But it's at any given time during a primetime game, you're gonna find about two hundred and three hundred people actively in there right now. So it's pretty cool.
Just come talk about sports betting, man, whatever you guys want to talk about any sport, anything that's going on. We've got channels for everything. Second, our prop bet cheat cheat betting pros dot Com slash props. It compares consensus projections to the available props in the market, and it gives you recommendations. It's pretty valuable if you like prop betting.
All right to three and last week top three bets went three and.
Oh, top three bets are the thing. It's ranked in order of how good the projections are. Essentially the delta. Sorry, man, I know you like the word. The delta between that are, you know, the consensus projections and the actual line. And so it gives you recommendations based on the strength, based on the difference and the projections and the actual line.
All right, So we're gonna get to this weekend. One thing, by the way, before we get to it, Matt and I were considering placing tonight's game in the contest because we are able to do that. In the DraftKings contest. The spread was what did I say, Matt, five and a half At the time, it was, it's now moved more in the direction of green bed at six and a half. I think now I don't know seven seven, right,
And again that's largely because of all the injuries. But in the end, Matt and I just decided, I don't know, Man, didn't feel right right.
I mean no, if I was gonna bet it, I would actually would have flipped around. I would have bet Sam fran plus seven. Yeah, so I changed a lot. I went and looked at just the metrics as to what the defense has been looking like for green Bay and if they can run the ball at all on Thursday night, I think Sam Franz live to win the game. So it's going to be if I was going to bet it, and I didn't bet it. I do think green Bay wins. I teased it down on the Daily Juice.
You guys heard me. I did a teaser. I teased it down to minus one for green Bay and then took the under. So I do think green Bay wins the game. But I think they're going to have a real tough fight on their hands.
Yeah, they are going to be able to run the ball because you can against green Bay's defense, and they also have nobody to throw the ball to because everybody is I can't believe they didn't move this game, man, But that's a whole Yeah, money Thursday, I get it. Anyway, with the DraftKings of contest, we're in a little bit of a rut okay, second straight week two and three, we're now twenty one and nineteen overall, fifty two and a half percent on the season. We're basically right in
the middle of where you know the contestants are. We literally fiftieth play fifty percent place. We did hit on the Raiders, the Raiders getting two and a half from the Broncos, which is from the Browns part of me, which was a game that we both really liked coming into the week, and the Chiefs laying nineteen and a half to the Jets, which we both kind of laughed
at when we chose. But we lost on the Ravens laying three and a half to the Steelers, Packers laying six and a half to the Vikings, and the Saints laying three and a half to the Bears. They won by a field goal, so legitimately halfway point three hundred and forty fifth out of six hundred and eighty nine. Legitimately the exact halfway point. People in the money right now are about sixty five percent, So we really got to get on the horse we got to get back going.
Move past just three and two. Let's go four and one, five and zero, let's really get going. So Matt's triggy week. As we said, we've got COVID concerns everywhere. Started us off with your best pick and then I'll give mine.
All right, my favorite play of the week. And this number actually is moving, and I actually am going to get a better number to bet on it. But for the purposes of the contest, we're going to fade the team that I like the best. Last week, the Chargers are at home against the Raiders and they're laying one
and a half points. The Chargers so far this year are four to and one against the number they had covered every game before or sorry, they had covered four straight games before what happened in the end zone against Denver where they choked. Totally understand it. This is a team that can't finish. However, this is a classic letdown spot after a big road victory and a chance, in my opinion, for the Chargers to kind of get themselves going against the defense that is hard hitting, but they
can be scored upon when you have nice weather. The reason why I love the Raiders against the Browns was because of the weather and the running attack. That's exactly what happened, low scoring games sixteen to sixth. Right, the final score was a good win for the Raiders. There bounce back spot for the Chargers at home after their tough loss to the Broncos. I like the Chargers laying one and a half the best this week.
I cannot believe this is your favorite game. Yep, Like, I really can't. Number one, I thought you'd be on the other side public is.
It's such a public play. Everyone in the public's on the Raiders.
Number two, the Chargers, Like essentially, you need the Chargers to win this game, and the Chargers are just masters even when they should win games and giving away games. So I don't I agree with you in the sort of you know, sell high here on the Raiders with this game. But I'm having trouble like getting behind a Charger team, Like you know, your number one pick is to back a team essentially to win that legitimately the
thing it does best is blow fourth quarter wins. You know you're you're not worried here.
No, I'm not worried because I don't think you can do it. I don't believe that Anthony Lynn and this team is gonna consistently do that every single week, and it's been crazy. At some point, this team's gonna figure out how to win games. And I think at home in a divisional game, where right now in Vegas it's a pick. Everyone's coming in here on the Raiders. It's
a crazy, big public play. I'm gonna wait and I'm gonna bet this thing when I get plus money in Vegas, because I guarantee you it's gonna be plus one plus two at kickoff for the Chargers at home, so I'll have a home dog. But I do I think they win the game by three or more.
All right, I'll put it on the maybe list because it was It definitely wasn't a wasn't one that I was against. I didn't have a good feel for it, and I you'd come in on the Raiders, and even then I was like, I'm the I have like a bucket of games mat that I'm gonna that. I say, I'm gonna let Matt try to talk me into one of these games, and that was one of them. But
I think you're crazy, but I don't. I mean, it's I I'm not as much as I think you're crazy, I'm not taking off the table because I do think that at least when I analyze the game from a pure betting perspective, like what's the right approach to take in these games, it would be this. It would be sort of the byless I'll high so on the maybe, we'll put it on the maybe. I'm just I'm running down.
They also are zero and three as a favorite, by the way, so that they're due to win a game. Here the Raiders are owing three. So the Chargers are rowing three as favorites the season.
And you like that, yes, because they're doing a game all right? That this is more love for the Charges that I expected my favorite pick, and I have a couple here actually that I like. I'm surprised this wasn't your number one pick because of how much you despise the Bills and it was Seattle getting two and a half from Bills.
No, I'm with you, that's fine. It's on my list.
Yeah, so all right, so I'll probably put that one in. I mean, here's the deal. I don't feel exactly the same way about the Bills that you do, but I definitely, especially lately, I'm gonna I'm gonna give you some props, Matt. I I in the beginning of the season, I was teasing you way too much about the Bills. But every time you see Josh Allen, he looks exactly now like he did last year, Like this is the exact same
thing as last year. Now there are a couple of, you know, worry spots and that I think part of the issue has been that John Brown either has been inactive or has not been healthy. And I think he's healthy now. I think he's good to go. I think with the three receivers Basiley being the third and Digs, that they are going to be able to move the ball.
But if you're telling me that I'm gonna get Seattle and Russell Wilson getting points with Jamal Adams back, I mean, I get that Chris Carson probably won't be active for this game, but I don't really think it matters. I think I'll be able to pass as much as you want, so you're giving me Seattle. It's actually what's interesting is that the consensus Ligne right now Matt has moved to three. So that's interesting to me, is it? What is it in the circa is it three or two and a half.
I think it's two and a half as well in circa. But if you look at just Seattle against the spread so far this year, they're five and two against the spread. They are one in two over the last three, so you might say, well, you know, people are figuring them out.
But I just think when you look at that Buffalo Bill's defense, they're horrific and they can't stop the run or the pass or Okay, I guess they're better against the run than there against the past, But I just think DK Metcalf is playing on just on different level right now. And I love the fact that the defense is getting healthy here, and I just think Josh Allen is good for one or two turnovers a game. And
they should have lost to the Patriots. I mean this is both these teams should have lost to the Patriots and the Patriots. I mean they should have lost, you know, last play the game in Seattle, last play or second and last play of the game in Buffalo, and both times the defense made plays. So I mean it's it is funny to look at both these teams and go, Okay, they are beatable both at home and on the road. But I got Russ better quarterback. I'm not a big
fan of McDermott. I I like Pete Carroll enough. Better coach on Seattle side, better quarterback on Seattle side.
I'm sure it'll be close, because every Seattle game is close. But you know, Jamal Adams coming back here. I just I think they win this game. And without fans in Buffalo, it just that place doesn't scare me that much. So all right, all right, it in, go ahead, what's your next one?
Okay? So how do you feel about a play that we don't know yet about what's happening with the quarterback spot with Detroit?
Okay?
So you are are you comfortable saying that Matthew Stafford is not going to play for the Detroit Lions? Now?
Actually I think he is going to play.
You do think he's going to play.
So here's the deal. This is what I'm nderstand that you correct me if I'm wrong. Okay, he's been deemed a close contact. He doesn't right a positive test. If he's cleared by Sunday morning. If he doesn't have a positive test or whatever by Sunday morning, he can play.
Right, yes, but he's not practicing.
Okay.
So he can't be around Anyboddy. He is suspected to being positive for COVID nineteen uh suspected. He doesn't have it confirmed test, but he's in close contact. So he's testing being isolated. He's being pulled away. Okay, his wife and his wife confirmed that they were in close contact with somebody who had who is positive for COVID.
Okay, all right. So but if he if he does get if he doesn't test positive before Sunday, he does get to play, right, I believe he does, yes, Okay, so but let's talk about it. This is Minnesota, by the way, I forgot. I meant to mention it before. That's seventy four percent of the experts in our bed analyzer are favoring Seattle with and now it's three point spreads. It's a little bit better. But either way, I do think they can. Okay, So this is Minnesota laying three
and a half right to the Lions in Minnesota. Go ahead, talk me through it then, So this is only for you if through Stafford doesn't.
It's not only I could still pick the Vikings even without him, but I feel even better. The reason why it's one number two play is because of the fact that I look at that and I say, okay, I believe Matthew Stafford. If nothing less, he hasn't been practicing. And these teams are very distracted. You're on the road, so you're very careful and cautious because if he's testing negative and he can't be around his teammates because he might be positive, and like when does he travel? How
does he travel that? Just so many things go into this when it's your starting quarterback who can't have meetings besides zoom, meetings to get ready to get ready for a football game. And the Vikings have their backs are against the wall. But they're four and three against the spread this year. All right, it's a game that the Vikings have to have. They are fighting for their lives. They showed up, they ran the ball, Dalvin Cook looks great.
I just think the I think the Vikings might be on a heater here and a chance at home to get a w and then off Stafford doesn't play. I love this pick.
Okay, can you name me a healthy member of the Vikings secondary?
No, because there isn't one. I mean, I mean, it's it's absolutely they have. But but we have to see about COVID. They have two guys on the COVID list, so they could come back by the time they play. So we'll see what happens with COVID nineteen and the Vikings. But I mean, I I just think this is to me starting quarterbacks in the NFL when they have trouble or problems. I don't know. I mean, I think this is a chance for Dalvin Cook to run the football
here and to keep going hot. Not the same way he was against the Packers, but I think this is a chance for this Vikings team. Look, the coaching set might be coaching for their jobs. They can't go out and love you win two three games this year, so you.
Know they don't. They can win, but not cover. If it's more you know, it's tru.
True three and a half, I get the hook, but that's where that's where the stafford comes in.
So okay, all right. So and there is no Kenny Galladay in this game, so that that's a big deal. I mean, if you've watched Marvin Jones play, I'm sure he'll score two touchdowns just because that's you know, what Marvin Jones does. Whenever you're kind of like, I'm done with Marvin Jones and T. J. Hockenson is legit, and I do like Deandrew Swift. I I I'm not fully opposed to it. It was in my bucket of I'm gonna let Matt talk to me, and to the extent I lean one way or the other, it was the Vikings
and the spread's moving. It's four and a half right now in favor of the Vikings, and on our bed at analys are fifty eight percent like the Vikings even at that number. So I'm gonna put that in the Maybe I think I might like that one better than the Chargers one and a half to the writers, But I'm not opposed to it. I'm not opposed to especially if Stafford doesn't play. Now, do you are we gonna
know I mean, obviously be test positive before Sunday morning. Well, no, I wonder you know, Matt, I can wait to put these in until Sunday at ten so it can legitimately be one where.
No, I mean, I mean they have to name a starting quarterback. He's gotta work out, he's gonna be with the ones. I mean, if he's not playing, they're gonna let everybody know by the time. I mean my Saturday will know staff is playing.
Okay, all right, so let's put that one on the maybe list. Okay, my next best pick is a team that really let us down last week. But it's also a team that I wanted to pick last week that you were like, No, I hate this coaching staff. I don't like this team. So I'm wondering how you feel even though they're on the road Baltimore laying two and a half to the Colts.
I'm on their side.
You like the Colts in this game?
Yeah? I thought you. I thought you'd picked the Colts.
No, No, you were.
So high on the Colts. That's my that's my third favorite play of the week.
All right, Well let's talk it through then Todt tell why are you high in the Colts? And then I'll give my side.
All right, So I'm highing the Colts because they're at home catching points. So they got two and a half points here, and I think there's something really wrong with Baltimore right now. I think there's something really wrong with the passing attack. I think teams have figured out Lamar Jackson. I think that they have the Ravens right now, they're not involving their wide receivers the same way that they
have in the past, and I think you're relying. I think the team is looking at Lamar Jackson and asking him to be Superman, and if he's not Superman, they're losing. And I just fundamentally think there's something wrong here. And I know Philip Rivers is a real dangerous guy right now to pick. But their defense is playing well. Their offensive line played really well. I mean, look what they did last week. I just think or a hot football team.
I mean, Baltimore might win the game, but I'm getting two and a half points at home.
So last week last week was the Lions, right, I'm not misremembering, Yes, right? Yeah? That I mean that was for me. This is what I said when we started talking about it, Matt, I said, I feel like I'm in like a parallel universe because this is like the easiest pick in the world to me, and nobody else was on it. It wasn't just you. Everybody else was like no, no, no, I didn't understand. The Lions are just not capable of winning a game against the team
like the Colts with that defense. Here's my big question, I think for the Colts, how are they going to move the ball. I mean, I know Marlon Humphrey.
Is going to be got seven guys with COVID.
Yeah, so are they all out, Yes, they're all out.
They're all Humphreys is out.
They're all out the Colts. One of the reasons why I didn't I didn't go crazy over it. What the Colts don't have receivers. I mean, even if you buy a t Y Hilton bounce back, t Y Hilton's probably not playing in this game. You know, what are you looking at? Zach Pascal. Maybe Michael Pittman Junior comes back, but it's not really scary. They've got eight tight ends. They're not going to go with johnthan Taylor, which maybe that's better for them with the way Taylor is running.
But you know, Jordan Wilkins doesn't look.
Just people know, Okay, L J Fort COVID, John Elliott COVID, Ron Stanley ankle injury, Patrick Queen COVID. Matthew Judon is back. Actually he came back today, so that he's back. Off those Malie Harrison COVID, Tyas Bowser COVID, Marlon Humphrey's COVID. I mean, there are a lot of.
The only guy who actually tested positive, Is that right? And the rest are close contacts? Or do you know of the rest of test positive? Because that was my understanding.
They're on the COVID list, so we never when they get put on the COVID list, it's assumed that they cannot play, that they're going to have to have three negative tests.
But Stafford's on the COVID list, right, Is he on the COVID list? I think what happens is if you're a high contact, you and I should know this at this point, but I'm very sorry. I've been up for like two.
I'll look at right now, Matthew, look it up. I believe he is on the COVID list.
He is, right. I believe if you are, if you have tested positive, or if you are deemed a close contact or whatever, it is a high risk on whatever it is that you're put on the COVID list. Which is why Jamal Williams can't play in tonight's game, and which is why Brandon I can't play in tonight's game because they're deemed close contacts with Kendrick Bourne and uh, you know here on.
A Thursday, he placed on the COVID list. On Thursday. You have to test negative on Friday, Saturday and Sunday to play.
These were these guys put on on the list on Thursday, though they were putting the list earlier in the week, right.
I thought it was today they I thought Stafford went on there today. I thought that. I thought they're all all this COVID news broke today with the Ravens and and with the Lions.
No, we could have been yes, No, I I think it was at least it.
Was Wednesday at the earl at the latest, I mean, at the earliest. Rather so it really I.
Don't think it was today unless I'm unless I'm make some of day. So if Stafford can play, then these guys. But but regardless, regardless, let's just say this, you probably don't like it, even if they can play, right, I mean, you know Humphrey is out because I'm actually tested positive. You don't like it regardless, even if I.
Like the cults on this, I'm on the Colt side. That's mine. I'm gonna bet this game.
I like the I bet it as well, so you and I will have some bug with it, just you, but we're not gonna put in the contest. That's fine. I think the Ravens are gonna win this game.
Just so you know, I can read this straight off the internet here, Okay, Stafford is considered a high risk close contact of a non team member who tested posit for COVID nineteen. Stafford's last contact with the individual was Monday, which means he would be eligible to come off the reserve list Sunday and play against the Vikings pending five straight days of negative tests. Okay, not three five. I thought it was three days. It's five straight days. Okay, negative tests?
And do we have that? Do you know the It doesn't matter, we're not picking it anyway, but the Baltimore Secondary when they were put on so.
For the Ravens, the Ravens story for them with COVID.
I hope everybody really appreciates how much time we're trying to spend giving you.
This is important.
Okay, So.
Seven Ravens are considered high contact, high risk after Marlin Humphrey tested positive. I read the list already. This doesn't indicate that those close contacts have tested positive or we'll miss the game on Sunday. However, Humphreys will be out for sure. He'd be quandered quarantine for ten days, so the league sent a memo to the team asking everyone to wear masks on the sidelines and during games in
regards to positive tests with Ravens and Packers. The memo states additional players and staff members were disneyed as high risk close contexts as results of unmasked social interactions outside of the facility. So who knows what the heck is going to happen here? I mean, it's it's It could be complete chaos if they all test positive on Saturday morning and the whole defense could be decimated in this game.
This game could get moved. I mean, if it runs through the Ravens locker room, this game could be subject to being pushed back.
Okay, all right, Well either way, we're not taking it. But if you are looking to bet it, even right now with what we know right now, I'm still taking it. With Baltimore laying under afield deal, so I'm willing to do it. But go ahead to your next game if you like.
If you like. Okay, So there's there's two other games that we haven't got to and they're both a little ugly, and I'm not going to stand on a table and scream for either one, but the ATM machine. That's the casey Chiefs against the Panthers. They're at home. I just think this is an opportunity. I know they've got COVID issues too. Chris Jones is on the COVID issue on the COVID list now, which is not great. I understand that. But it's the Chiefs against that defense for the Panthers. Yep,
it's ten and a half. I know it's a little steep, but it's the Chiefs. I mean, they just they beat up on everybody at home.
Yeah, they covered the big spreads. I mean that was really why you and I were like against the Jets are like, what is it nineteen and a half? That's fine, We're fine with that.
They've covered so far this year they've covered eleven once, they've covered nine and a half, eleven and twenty of the big spreads and seven of the big.
Are you worried all about McCaffrey coming back in this now?
Because I think I actually agree with my profooble folk people. I think getting McCaffrey back into the offense is going to take time.
Okay, well, let me say this. This was not one of the ones on my list, but it was the one that actually technically it did make the cut. Yees, so it did make the cut. So I think we could probably just put that in because I liked it too. I like it too. I think, you know, you saw against the Panthers. I get as a Panthers the Falcons.
I get that it was bad weather. But I think that this this you know, Carolina offense is now coming back down to earth a little bit and it's you know, and the defense is not nearly as good as it has played, and I think that they're just going to be able to move the ball pretty pretty well and put up a ton of points. So I'm good with that. Let's just put that in chief slaying ten and a half to the Panthers. Okay, okay, all right. Let me get to my next one then, because I have a
couple of still a couple here. Now, this one is in your dead zone, so you can't possibly like it. But the Bears do have offensive line issues with COVID again and injuries. I don't know who's even gonna be on that offensive line right now. So I kind of like in Tennessee that Titans laying five and a half
to the Bears in a bounce back spot. There's a couple of reasons, and we can get to why you say I don't like, you know, five and a half with with favorites, they're getting a little healthier in their secondary, which has been absolutely decimated. Dori Jackson, I think is going to play in this game. They traded for Gag King, so and I think Jenkins isn't gonna play for the Bears as well. It's gonna open up the run defense a little more for the Titans to be able to
run a lot here. So I think this is a real bounce back spot. And again, you know, I know we lost last week in a game that I felt like we should have won with the Saints laying three and a half because the Bears did match put a points and again Alan Robinson played, which we weren't expecting this rightly. But I think this is the game where the Titans destroy the Bears in Tennessee in a bounce back spot.
All right, here's my fear. Okay, So the Titans are they have one games by two, three, one, six, and six. They've won one game by twenty six, they've lost by three, and they've lost by eleven. They've lost two games in a row. Their season is sort of hinging here on this game, right, my fear is this Titans team is crashing down to earth after a red hot start and
that line at five and a half. I'm petrified. I can see them winning this game by three points and just squeaking it out and not in Chicago covering it because this was on my maybe list of Chicago plus five and a half.
Oh, you like Chicago on this side because of the line, because of the point. Now six and a half, by the way, is where I see. So I don't think that, yeah, I helps you in anyway, but yes, I just and that, by the way, is that's our most split game on bed analyzers.
I'm just scared. I'm just really scared of how close these games are with the Titans every week and it comes down to a field goal one way or the other and Steven Goskowski whether the hip is working or not. Yeah, And so I just I'm petrified with these Titans games. I mean, I've just I've kind of gotten my toast dubbed a bunch of times with the Titans until a little gun shy with them at the moment.
Okay, that's fine, Let's go to your next one.
Then, guy, last one is ugly, okay, and nobody agrees with me, But here is my last one, okay to a tag of Aloa is in the middle of a really interesting controversy in Miami right now, so it was leaked out to the media that the Dolphins may be showcasing two order to trade him, using the two first round picks they've got next year their own and the Texans, and the two second round picks that they've got next year their own, and the Texans to move up and
if they're they're not in the top five already themselves even in the top ten, to package those four picks and go up to one or two and take Justin Fields or take Trevor Lawrence. The team quickly came out and shot that down. But just the fact that that went out there, and the fact that Tua played like crap, just like I thought he would. The offense did nothing with him. It was the defense and the special teams
that did all the scoring. The run that was the third highest negative yardage differential in NFL history with the Rams in the Miami Dolphins last week. It was over three hundred and fifty yard difference between the Rams and the Dolphins. Sure to it, threw a touchdown pass. Great, this is a different defense. I get it with the Arizona Cardinals, but this is his first road start, welcome to the NFL. This is where Tua probably should have started,
to be quite honest, not last week. I think the Cardinals win this game relatively easily minus four and a half. I'm taking Arizona.
I'm putting it in. Okay, I'm putting it in. It was on my probably list, one of these where if you said it, I was definitely going with it. I agree with basically everything you said, and I think that this game favors the Cardinals and couple of other ways too. The Dolphins generally are terrible against the run, and I know Kenyan Draguszez doesn't matter. Chase Edmonds is probably playing a little better, but Murray's gonna run like a crazy man.
They play man defense too. They've got a man's scheme which is perfect for Murray to run all over it. They also done have Miles Gaskin or Matt Brita by the way, the Dolphins, so they're gonna be basically running Jordan Howard out there, which is going to take away any threat of the run game. Tuur really didn't look good, and I felt for you because I know how big
you were on the Rams. I didn't let us put in the contest, but I felt for you because they did not play well and they got you know, they got a Jared Goff and then a special team's touchdown. Tuoa did not look good in that game. So I'm completely on board with this. I'll do Cardinals laying four and a half to Dolphins in Arizona, So that's good with me. Uh Okay, I've got three more games, Matt that are on my maybe list. Okay, so let me lay him out here for you. And it's fine if
you're on the other side. My guess is you're not gonna like this one. But how do you feel about the Saints getting four and a half from the Bucks?
I don't hate it. So here is my concern. When you're talking about New Orleans on the road. You know we're assuming Michael Thomas is playing and healthy, right, Yes, Okay, so Michael Thomas is back. That changes a lot. You got Alvin Kamara, who's gonna be insane like he always is. He's a major focal point and a difficult guy to stop. The Bucks defense got exposed a little bit last week. But my worry is how much were they looking ahead to the Saints game and they didn't totally focus in
like they should have against the Giants. But I was really surprised at how easily the Giants threw the ball, not really ran the ball, but through the ball. So going into the game, the Bucks defense was number one against the run DVOA and number three against the pass DVOA. That passing stat clearly was inflated and clearly was wrong.
So I don't hate this. And if you want to stand on table and say New Orleans plus four and a half and you want to go off of it saying it's a numbers play and maybe the Saints win the game, outright, I don't hate it because I am
a little concerned. I just don't know what what Antonio Brown does and how many snaps he gets, and just him and Brady are they just like on a different wavelength like they were when he played against the Dolphins for the Patriots that first game where he was like five catches for eighty yards and a touchdown, So I'm a little that's my own only concern if like him and Brady come out and just are on fire together.
And I don't love that Saints defense. I like it, I love it, but I don't hate to play four and a half of the Saints.
So I'm a little concerned with most of what you mentioned. First of all, Chris Godwin may play right now, but he's basically got a giant like splint cast on his finger, so I don't expect him to be full health. I don't really trust the running game for Tampa, especially not against the Saints, which has a pretty solid run defense, because they can't get into a groove because if you fumble or you miss a Blitz pick up, you are benched like Ronald Jones was. So I feel like they
don't really have it there. I don't expect Brown to come in and play a full compliment of snaps, but he might. Andrew Brees is kind of, I guess, battling some sort of nagging shoulder thing. But I do think basically this might be the first time that they're going to be at full strength offensively since the first game, really, when Emmanuel Sanders was not in any way involved, and he played really well before going on the COVID list,
like really well, especially without Michael Thomas. I think if you give him, and you give Michael Thomas and Sanders and Kamara and you've got I mean, Jared Cook is back and he's doing his thing with the red zone. This just strikes me as a division game that's going to be played really really close. It doesn't strike me as something where the Bucks are going to be able to completely blow them out of the water in this game. So this feels like a field goal game to me,
one way or another. I don't think I mean, I don't like, I don't love the Saints on the money line or anything like that, but I do feel like this is going to be within a field goal. So why don't we put that on the on the maybe list.
Yeah, I mean, I I'm comfortable. I mean, I wouldn't bet this game about that, but but I am comfortable taking it in the contest because every point you're making is accurate, and I do think there's a legitimate chance this is a this is the game of the weekend, you know, primetime game, Monster ratings, everyone's eyeballs are on it. Everyone's been looking forward to it. Everyone's you're gonna get the a game from both teams, right, So it coming down to a last second field goal drive.
Absolutely, And the Bucks are on a short week, don't forget like that to that they're on a short week. And I think the Saints probably hear all of this, right, they're like, okay, the Bucks, Bucks Bucks by Box. Well, the Saints where like the preseason sort of pick to and it's.
Been their division too, right, I mean this is this is their division. So there's somewhat of like a Okay, new kids on the block. No, thank you, we're there. We're still the ones who run this joint.
So now the consensus line is now four and it's it's very split. Fifty four percent of people on bet Analyzer are with the Saints, but it's very which I understand. I understand, although I think.
The money's going to pour in on the Bucks. Yeah, I think this is gonna be a public side either way.
On the I agree, and I think that's why I'm on the faded.
You know.
One of the reasons, well, okay, I've got two more here, do you want to go? Do you have anything else?
But I'm good.
Okay, here are two other ones that I lean in favor of. You can let me know if you like either one. It's hard to come into a game and be like, you know what, I want to take the Pats laying more than a field goal, giving everything that's happening with them. But you know, and this is not a I get to do whatever I want with the Jets. I'm not. I'm not making that that pick here because I like it. But the Jets, I Douglas is basically trying to go sixteen and I root against them actively
because I want the h and sixteen. They are an absolutely terrible football team. You're not gonna get Jameson crowderback here. He's going to miss this game. Sam Darnold is probably at a point where they would not play him, and he's going to push to play with his injury at whatever it is, I guess his shoulder, whatever it is, he's going to push to play through it. He's limited
in practice, he wants to play. Kudos to him because he probably knows their eyeing Trevor Lawrence, so he wants to go and Belichick of all things, of everything that's wrong with the Pats, of everything else. The one thing you can bet is that Belichick wants to stick it to the Jets as bad as possible.
So for me, and they were buyers at the trade of line. Yeah, like how in the world that they were buyers. They weren't sellers, they were buyers.
I know, I don't know. So for me, however, they want to do it, whether or not it's Damian Harris running I know the Jets have a decent run defence, or Cam just running it or you know, whatever you want. Do you want to get Jacoby Myers all the way involved? It doesn't matter.
I don't think the Jets score to do it because I look, I'm not going to bet this, but to take it in the contest to give me something root for and watch here, let's let's do it, because because here's my here's here's why I like it. And I mean I wish it was seven at seven and a half. I mean, I don't say that hook. But so that's
why I wouldn't bet it. But but you know, in terms of looking at it and saying, okay, because this might be my involved in my teaser for the week, and you know, the Patriots are at are on the road here. But one thing that I am really curious about is if the Jets want to lose and they don't want to win, the Patriots have a lot of pride still, and sometimes that's all you need really in these games with no fans, that if you're more motivated,
if you're more focused. Like that's why right now there's this crazy trend for underdogs in prime time because they hear all week up here comes the team that's gonna come in and beat you. So out of the gate, like the Giants out of the gate, there was no juice or fire for the Bucks coming out of the gate in that game. It was all about the Giants. So I don't think the Jets are going to have any of that juice until they fire their head coach
and when they fire Adam Gase. As I have said, the week after they fire Adam Gase, I will bet on the Jets to cover the spread, whatever it is. But until they do that, the other side is the right play.
Yeah, that's exactly how I feel. And so you'll be betting on the Jets in Week one of the twenty twenty one NFL season because they are apparently just gonna I mean that what could Adam Gays possibly do at this moment to get fired like legitimately, So I think they're just going to ride this out and then fire them and then hopefully hire the enemy and that'll be it.
So you think you guys are getting them, huh? I have no idea the Texans. The Texans thinks that they're getting them.
They may, they may.
That was just my okay. The Texans fans all believe that they're getting him because Shaun Watson worked with him and knows him really well.
So it certainly could happen. And it's not as if we are at the moment a particularly desirable place, and so that's certainly possible. The eighty percent of our experts are taking the Patriots in this game as well at seven and a half as well, so they're they're okay with with so okay, we'll put it in. So that really gives us four meat at Seattle getting two and a half from the Bills, the Chiefs got five.
What do you mean that's five?
What's five the list? What was our fifth?
Seattle, Kansas City, Arizona Saints Patriots.
We didn't I didn't put the Saints in. I didn't know that. That's why you wanted to go with that. You were good to go with that one.
So I'm fine with the Saints. If you're fine with the Saints. But if you're not, that we can put it. We can keep it on the maybe in the maybe category.
No, I'm good with it. I'm good with the Saints. Then that's fine. Let's run through the rest of the games though here for for you know, our listener's sake. The only other game which I kind of liked, which would be really tough to take was the Steelers laying thirteen and a half.
I thought you were going to go there. That's funny, I was. I really thought you were going to go there. I there's no other way to play this but the Steelers. But yikes, right, what we haven't seen what happens if one of the three quarterbacks I'm not Patanucci, but what happened to the other two quarterbacks come out and play decent?
Then that's legitimately why I hesitate and why it was like the last game on my list, because I don't know if Cooper Rush or Garrett Gilbert is going to be able to move the ball whatsoever. And you know, I hate variables.
So they know the system. Yeah, I mean nothing else. They know the system, so it's like, uh, I don't know.
Yeah, yeah, eighty six percent of experts are with the Steelers. But yeah, I'm fine. I'm good as long as you're good with the Saints. I like the Sands game over that bat o.
I like that much better than laying thirteen and a half on the road.
That's fine, I'm good to do that as well. I do like that side, but I agree that it's a little iffy. All right, let's go through the remaining I believe three games. I missed one last week. I'm very sorry, listeners. I think I missed the Titans that always did whoop, it's my bed, it's my bad. Okay, let's do. The Texans lank seven and a half to the Jaguars in Jacksonville.
Again, this is a quarterback swap, so it's why I can't like it. I mean, I initially thought about taking the Jags, and I looked at it and I was like plus seven and a half. I was like, okay, maybe, but a quarterback swap for me, I just can't. I don't know what to expect out of that. Offense.
Yeah, that's the thing that they do have COVID concerns. By the way, with Houston, so true, that is a little worrisome as well. But I agree, I don't know at all what we're going to see here. So it's a game where I'm not going anywhere at over a touchdown. It is down to a touchdown line in the consensus lines, and our experts are at seventy six percent favoring Houston, which I get. But it's something where I don't know
what Newton is gonna look like. Bronco's getting three and a half from the Falcons in Atlanta.
I mean Drew Lock on the road. No, I just can't trust Drew Lock. I mean, I just he's like I'm gonna keep on dancing. Yeah, you keep on dancing, you fool. But no, I'm just not I don't like Drew Lock. I didn't like him in college. I don't like him in the NFL. I have a hard time. They got a gift because the charge of the Chargers. No, can't do it.
Yeah, people are are they like the Broncos in this game. I've had people talk to me about it. I don't like it. I'm certainly not back in the Falcons because I'm never back, Like I'm not going there, but I'm not. I just I'm not. They look terrible in that game, Like I get that the Chargers were gonna charge her, but they look terrible in that game overall, So I'm
not gonna go there as well. Last game, which I would have let you talked me into this one, by the way, if you liked it, is Washington laying two and a half to the Giants in Washington.
Yeah, I'm not betting or taking anything to do with the NFC East Okay inter division now like we're playing another but inside the division, Yep, I don't care. I mean no like Cowboys Washington, you know, New York versus the Eagles, Like it's just you just can't. This is the most pathetic division in football. It's just that, I mean, Washington might win the division. They really might. So if you said Washington, okay, maybe, but I think they could be fool's goal too.
Yeah, I think that. I think I take the Washington football team if I had to in this game under because I think they're gonna win. And we said it in that first game, even though I think they lost the first game, but covered right, was that the one that the Giants won by one? I think that Washington was getting two and a half. I think Washington's gonna
win this game. Yeah, Daniel Jones' played better. I mean he's He's missed plenty of throws, but I still think off bye, I like more what Kyle Allen is doing a little bit. So I knew.
How did I lose that bet on Monday? How did Daniel Jones should have thrown two interceptions on that last drive? Yes, not one, but two, like one, okay, fine, but two different times the balls should have been picked. I just I was literally on my couch, just like in a fetal position, going like I can't believe I'm gonna lose this bet on Wednday night.
It's football, man, That's how. That's how we were. All sixty seven percent of experts, by the way, are with Washington as well, So that's the side I'm on as well. If you do want to bet, We're not gonna put
in the contest. What we are going to put in the contest is Seattle getting two and a half from the Bills Chiefs laying ten and a half to the Panthers, the Cardinals lank four and a half to the Dolphins, the Pats yes laying seven and a half to the Jets, and the Saints getting four and a half from the Bucks. You good.
I like it. It's a nice mix, no big lines, some road dogs. I like it.
I really like it. It's a good mix. I feel good about this week, Matt, I really do. I feel like this is gonna be the week. So we're gonna do it all right everybody. By the way, make sure you're tuning into the Daily Juice podcast, which Matt hosts. It's awesome. Gives bets daily for various sports, and especially now coming in with the NFL and with college football and all that. It is a great list in fifteen
minutes every morning. Join our Discord channel, check out our prop bet cheat sheet, all that stuff over our bettingpros dot com. We will talk to you next week, and I will post our picks even if we don't change, because I got some feedback on that. Even if we don't change, I will make sure I post our picks when we make the choice on Saturday night. So everybody have a great weekend, enjoy your football betting, and we will talk to you next week.
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