Week 8 NFL Best Bets with Stuckey (Ep 230)

The first one you have up on your list might be one of my biggest no touch games of the year because I have absolutely zero ankling here. You've been low on the Raiders this all season. Their big win against the Texans doesn't do it for you. Here you are taking the Saints as one and a half point dogs at home this week against the Raiders.

You know, that offense with Andy Dalton at quarterback for some reason, maybe it's just because he's avoiding some of the massive turnovers you know we've seen Jameis Winston, but that offense has been pretty good, averaging thirty one points per game with Dalton, and Dalton for his career has been pretty good as an underdog forty one thirty one and two against the spread, going against Derek Carr, who's been fifteen to twenty five and one against the spread

as a favorite. So you know, trans pointing in opposite directions there, But just in terms of on field matchup, the Saints rush offense versus the Raiders rush defense. I think that for me is going to be the big difference here. The Saints have one of the league's best running offenses and the Raiders are mediocre against the run, you know, often allowing opponents to stay on schedule and

sustained drives on the ground. They're number seventeen in rush success rate, number twenty in rush DVOA, and you know, for the Saints offense, they're top three in both of those categories. You know, the Raiders are exploitable via the air as well, bottom six and both drop back EPA and drop back success rate. But you know, with the pass catching injuries the Saints have, I think they're likely to rely more on the running game, and with the edge that they have in that area, I think they're

going to keep the contest close. And the Thursday look Ahead market the Saints were minus one and a half and I still think that they should be favored here. I have this at Saints minus one.

I mean, Dalton's two pick sixes last week basically cost some the game. There's been a couple other games like that. We're just absolute game swinging penalties. They've not only just numerically have they had the worst turnover luck in the NFL. It's like when they come you have to like if you dig in the penalty in turnovers, like they matter a lot more than you know, a Hail Mary at the end of the first half compared to like you're

driving and there's a pick six. So but one thing that gives me pause here is the Saints defensive line. Theyre just haven't been They're not getting any pressure number one, and if you look, Josh Jacobs looks rejuvenated. The Raiders' offensive line is actually I think they're number one in adjusted lineyards and they've been really good and run blocking. The Saints are number two. But then if you look at the other side of the ball, the Raiders defensive

line has actually been better against Rent. I don't know what's going on with the Saints defensive line. Maybe some guys are over the hill dealing with injuries. I'm not sure, but generally speaking, the Saints defense will shut down the run, so I would like this matchup from that perspective, but it just hasn't really played out that way this year. But yeah, I make this a true coin flip. Saints at hun they probably have some aggression coming their way.

They've been really good from an efficiency standpoint. There's just a lot of injury uncertainty with the Saints, but yeah, I think it's Saints are passed.

this one right now at home. But Stucky, you had them at four and a half. Do you still like them at three and a half?

Now they're all on it early in the year. But if you look at what they've done all year, I mean, they've put up early in their thirty five, thirty six, forty eight, and it's a team that was regularly scoring over thirty points at home indoors where Jared Goff isn't a pumpkin. And then they have one bad game at New England, you know, but they were missing some key guys and golf outdoors is a great spot for the Patriots even and then last week they go to Dallas.

The yardage about equal was five turn to one. They were at the one to take the lead. I think early the fourth quarter fumbled at the one yard line. I think their defense showed out well. I actually have some promise for their defense moving forward. It's been one of the worst in the league. But they inserted some young guys into the lineup in the by you know, playing Josh Pascal more up front, Kirby Joseph I think

he is playing well at safety. Then obviously everyone knows about Hutchinson, who had his best day as a pro last week, so did Jeff Akudah for what it's worth a corner knock and Rodrigez I think is a future studded linebackers. So I think their defense is going to improve, and it looked pretty good last week. And you have to remember last week the Lions didn't play with DeAndre Swift, who will play this week, and they lost him on Ross Saint Brown and like the first drive because he

was spotted for a concussion which he didn't have. He's massive for that offense and especially this week, so we know the Lions have a good offensive line. They're going up against a Dolphin secondary that is down to fourth and fifth string corners and Xavion Howard and they just lost Brandon Jones at safety. It's like a really important blitz piece for them. So I think the Lions will be able to move the ball here and for as you know, fun is the Miami offens is in four

or five four or five to a starts. They haven't surpassed twenty one points. Like it's just not there's something missing there. But I think this, you know, the both teams are going to be able to score here. I'll gladly take the three and a half at home with the Lions. I think defense is trending up, offense is now fully healthy. I think this is a good spot to buy Detroit.

that this line might move down. And I'm westucky. I thought they played actually pretty well against Dallas and it was only at the end of the game that things really unraveled for them. So if I had to bet this now, I would probably be on the Lions and not the Dolphins.

going in this one? Are you going to lay the points with the Patriots on the road?

outstanding support in the ground game. But you know, for the year, the Jets are just number twenty two in rush success rate. Since Week four, they've improved, but still only number thirteen. And you know what that means is on a down to down basis, they're not really consistent. You know, They've just relying on the big play, especially from Briest Hall. And you know, now with him out, you mentioned Elijah Berry Tucker out, he's really the team's

best run blocker. I think the Jets are going to struggle on the ground, which means they need Wilson to do more through the air, and like that's that's a big ask, right, Like that feels like a problem given that the Patriots defense is top six and every key pass efficiency metric and the Jets pass offense is no better than average. So if they can't run the ball, and if they can't pass the ball against the Patriots defense,

like how are they going to score enough points to cover? So, yeah, I'm on the Patriots in this spot.

the Jets are whatever. The right with their fraudulent record is they've beaten they've won four and or I think against nothing backup quarterbacks. Last week, by the way, I had a ten great of that game is a ten point loss for the Jets. Great at that. The seventeen point win against the Packers is a four point loss they had. They scored on two trick plays on offense, a punt block for a touchdown, block the field goal.

This off the last two games that they won on the road, and they Zack Wilson had a twenty nine percent success rate and a thirty one percent success rate complete poverty. He's under He's the worst. I think he's the worst quarterback in the NFL by far, this guy. I mean, it's it's amazing that they're winning games with him, and they're winning games despite him facing back up quarterbacks getting some fortunate breaks under and the Patriots get a

lot of pressure too. Under pressure. This year, Zach Wilson is five of thirty one for forty yards five of thirty one for forty yards. He is completely lost back there, and yeah, now you don't have Breis Hall to you know, break a seventy yard run here or there. I think the Jets are in for a long day. If you look at EPA plus completion percentage of expectation. Out of thirty six qualified quarterbacks, Jack Wilson's thirty fifth. The only

one that's been worse this year is Baker Mayfield. So yeah, this is this is Patriots all the way in a bounce back spot. And yeah, the Jets are. Their medicine is coming and they're coming back down to Earth soon. I like their future. They've got some good young pieces, but their defense isn't as good as people think that they keep playing backups and their offense with Alvaris Hall is a joke.

with it. But I definitely agree it's a two game losing streak heading into the bike. They're gonna lose this one. They're gonna lose to the Bills, and then you're still in a good position. But it definitely hurts not having Breeze Hall and James Robinson is not an adequate replacement for him.

There is zero percent chance. First of all, but again, Wilson will be under pressure the whole game. There is zero percent chance that the Jets offense can keep up with the Bills.

losing our only two good players on offense. I just hope that this team still recognizes that they're not getting the job done with Zack Wilson and they need to move on to another quarterback after the season, because that was my whole goal for this season with the Jets was just suck enough that you move on from Zach Wilson and you can take all of these talented pieces and get him a real quarterback. I was never a believer in this guy, and I'm still not at this point.

But we've spent more than enough time talking about the Jets here because well, wait, now you're.

Zach Wilson. So we'll see what happens. I don't really trust Stroud and Young. But that's a conversation for a different podcast here, because we got something really even weirder and possibly hasn't happened in more than the twenty one years since the Jets have had the better record.

think nine to nothing. I don't know what happened in that game. I got to go back and look.

of the field, they can't do anything. They're also dead last and fourth down conversion rate thirty second EPA per play on late downs, which tend to have more variants. Their defense is still a really good pass defense, and their run defense is awful, and they've played these teams that have just run all over them. But this matchup might not be the worst thing for them. Like Bills don't give up explosive plays, so and the Packers don't

have any exposiveness in their offense. They're gonna have to run the ball, They're gonna have to dike it, dunk they're gonna get rid of the quick. We'll see how healthy their offensive line is. That's anohing they dealt with offensive line injuries. And on the other side of the ball, the Bills throw the ball. That's what they do. They can't run it, by the way, even if they come out here and say let's run it more. I think they're bottom three and heap gave for play when running

the ball, So they're gonna throw it a lot. And that's what the Packers look for. Shawn Gary practice today, which is big. The Packers can get some pressure. They have a good secondary, so I kind of like the match up here with their you know, kind of dink and dunk efficient offense. You hope that they get some better luck on late downs. And on the other side, like their pass defense is good. That's what you want against the Bills. Maybe I know Bills are off of

a buy here, but they just beat the Chiefs. It's like the Packers struggle. Maybe they come out a little flat, And I think this situation just sets up well for the Packers and like everyone's written them off. They've had all this pressure on them, their offense, and like you can go in here and play loose and free. No

one's giving you a chance. And most importantly, I just think that this is the bottom of the market on the Packers, which is really what you want to do and what I, or at least what I first try to do when betting the NFL, you know, buying low

and selling high. It's similar to the stock mark. And I think that this is the bottom of the Packers stock And I know it's so narrative based to say, oh, Aaron Rodgers, hall of fame quarterback, I'll glad they take eleven and a half with him, and I'll tell you why that's important. And like if I had to think that this is a blowout down seventeen late, especially in today's EEV with the scoring down, if they're down seventeen

late in the game, that's a blowout. Then you got a Hall of Fame quarterback with three minutes ago, playing against a prevent defense. You need them to go down to get a touchdown. Could be in worse spots.

I think he's probably right. There's a difference between like being right, like in terms of how teams match up with each other, and then like you know, going by

the number based on your power ratings. I still have this like power rated to where Buffalo should be favored by eleven point seventy five points, So in theory, there's still like my line would point towards the Bills, but you know, past ten, you know, the difference between like ten and a half eleven and then getting up to eleven point seven five, They're like, there's not much of a difference there, And I don't I don't think I really want to be betting this game on the Bill

past ten. I mean I take Stucky's point of like, yeah, like, am I going to regret like a week from now not having bet on Aaron Rodgers at like what is definitely like the low point in the market for him? Like yeah, I will probably be like, man, I should have just been on, I should have tried to middle or I should have just waited and be like, no, I'm gonna bet the Packers once this gets past ten. So I take Stucky's point there, but at this point in the market, I'm probably staying away.

even more. He practiced today which is a good sisode over Sean Garry, so it looks like he's gonna play, which is another important piece. But Baciaris is literally it appears from what I've read and heard that he's gonna be like a game time decision for the next like month. Yeah, he played two weeks ago and then he's like it just depends on the day and how was his knee feel. So yeah, he he's an important piece for this game and this matchup.

career as an underdog. And yeah, I mean you can see how this could be like a Rav Ross spot for Mike Tomlin. But this Eagles pass defense going against the Steelers pass offense, I think that for me is the matchup and where this game is won. The Steelers, I think they have one of the best pass catching like skill position groups in the league. Obviously a wide receiver Deontay Johnson and Chase Claypoll George Pickens, all those

three guys are great. Pat Freyremouth is an emerging tight end who I think could eventually elevate himself into the top tier. And Najee Harris is a really good pass catching back for a guy of his size. But their passing game has been thwarted by the I don't want to say like lack of development by rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, but just like the fact that he's a rookie. He's dead last in the league with a three point nine adjusted yards per attempt, Like he has not played well

this year. There are some throws where it's just like he does not have the physical ability to make those throws when he thinks that he does, so he needs to adjust his game, So like, how are they going to move the ball through the air against the Eagles. I think they're not going to. The Eagles defense is top six against the pass and a number of efficient metrics.

I think they're just too strong at cornerback. You know, with James Bradbury, he's got the size and the physicality to match up with Claypool and Pickens on the perimeter. And then you know Darius Slay he's got the quickness I think to stick with Johnson. And then in the slot, Avonte Maddox has steadily developed over the past few years and to one of the better, you know, interior pass defenders.

He's got, you know, an elite combination of speed and agility, which I think helps him navigate the middle of the field. I just I think the Eagles are too explosive on offense not to get out to a double digit lead, and their pass defense is good enough to be able to keep that lead in the second half. So you know, at ten and a half, it's it's close. For me, I would still be on the Eagles at this number. I obviously liked it much more ten when I bet it and wrote it up.

against the Cowboys. And I just have this weird suspicion that, you know, the Steelers defense would do a lot of injuries that like we're gonna it'll be like shocking everyone that TJ. Watt comes off the I R and just plays on Sunday and like he I remember he was in concussion protocol one week. They got a concussion on like a Tuesday. They played the Rams on like a Tuesday, and then he was Everyone's like he's out, and then

he just played and he like practiced today. I think, Uh, my friend that's affiliated with the Steelers was like he was out there on the side like going full It wouldn't shock me. TJ. I played and the Steelers defense with TJ. Watt on and off the field splits is ridiculous.

And him against that you know what the Eagles like to do off the edge and him, you know, and if Lane Johnson was out, t J. Watts like literally could be worth maybe the most important defensive player in the league in this particular matchup of Johnson was out.

Not the greatest like in game manager, but his team he's like kind of like, get the troops ready, and sometimes they come out so flat. Of his favorites back with Roethlisberger, he's awful. He was a big favorite against losing teams. Here's one that another trend that supports the Eagles that I believe in. And this is crazy. Since two thousand and one, undefeated teams in the NFL coming off of buy that are favored at home are eighteen and one straight up and seventeen and two against the spread,

covering by I think almost two touchdowns per game. Think about this. This is undefeated teams in the NFL. Everyone knows that they're good, right, you would think that they would be at the top of their market. There's seventeen to two against the spread. Why how could this be? And you know, an efficient NFL market, I would you know, my hypothesis is that if you're undefeated in the NFL and at home right number one, you're gonna get an

amazing crowd Hoak Field of Avengine. You're gonna be rested, and you're a good team. You probably a good coaching staff. But you're undefeated and you're on a bye. You probably spent that two weeks like the morale and the dedication and everything is just positive and everything's working together. You probably spent those two weeks every week and second, everyone

on the team studying film and like. So, yeah, that's a crazy seventeen and two against the spread for teams that are undefeated, like you would think at home favorites off of a bye covered by almost two touchdowns per game. So that supports your Eagles position here. I do agree with you that if the Eagles build a lead, it's bad news for the Steelers. You just I don't know when we're gonna be able to sell the Eagles because

their schedule is so bad. But they are built to play from a head, and I think that they're going to be vulnerable when they play a team that actually gets out in front against them, which hasn't happened. It might not happen often until they get to the playoffs.

I don't know. But on the road he's fifteen three and two against the spread as an underdog, He's won eight straight outright, They're just how they perform on the road versus at home is crazy. This is when you want to back Cliff Kingsbury, who I'm not a fan of or not, on the second half of the season with Hopkins in the lineup on the road as an underdog, the numbers with him without Hopkins are stunning for Kyler Murray.

I mean, even if you remove Kyler Murray, the Cardinals in general overall with him without Hopkins twenty seven points per game in twenty seven games, and I think in thirteen without them they're averaging eighteen. It's almost a ten point differential. And then Kyler Murray personally is but nine to two with a seventy two percent completion percentage of twenty touchdowns, nine interceptions, two seventy five a game with Hopkins.

Without him, he's three and seven sixty four percent two thirty. Uh, just start conscience. You'd see it last week when he was in the game. He you know, had ten catches, reliable third down target, opens up kind of the outside and opens up the middle. It's just a much different offense with him in it. And then I think that they solve some things on the offensive line. They've been dealing with injuries. They moved some guys around, put in Billy Price at center. They got their best protection of

the year. They're back up to Hudson is horrendous. He played three or four games the worst center in the league. Got him out of there last week and that did Wonders. And I also think their defense is a bit underrated in the market. They got torched. Torch the worst performance of the season by any team against expectations by the market. But it was in Week one against the Chiefs, but they were missing like six starters and they were playing the Cheets on a good day. They got destroyed. Their

twentieth and EPA per play for the season. But if you're removed from Week two on their ninth. So I think their defense is improving healthier, is a little better than the market assumes. And this Vikings team that they've won four in a row and they're really rustling their laws. On that week one win over green Bay, it's like green Bay missed then eighty our touchdown to start the game, and look, green Bay is nowhere close to who we thought they would be. You're their four wins. They beat

Miami and the stringing then second stary quarterback. They got out game four sixty to two thirty six and a half to four and a half yards per play advantage form Miami, who turned it over three times at one hundred yards and penalties. The next week they beat the Lions dead even games just should have lost, I mean the Dan Campbell decision late on that kick and then

they score two late touchdowns. Then they beat the Saints dead even game statistically with their backup in London on a you know game game out of a field goal late. And then the Bears, the Bears historically bad offense, it's five point eight yards per play each one possession game. I know that they were up big early, but that that's it. They beat the Bears. The Saints, the Lions, and the Dolphins back up all by one possession, getting outplayed in most of those games. So yeah, I don't

this defense isn't that good. And I think that this is a decent matchup for the Cardinals. And yeah, Kyler and Cliff on the road as a dog with Hopkins in the lineup right before their downfall when they're gonna lose like six and road end of the air.

would still bet it a three and a half. I absolutely am was stuck on this on this bet here.

been even worse, right astoundingly. They're bottom three in rushing efficiency and now they're taking on a defense that's top ten against the run, you know, basically in whatever you know defensive run efficiency metric you're looking at. But maybe with Ellinger he can help out the ground game. You know, six rounder making his first start, so obviously that's disgusting, but in the preseason he was pretty good passing the ball twenty four to twenty nine, two hundred and eighty

nine yards and four touchdowns. And you know, with Frank Reich, you know, guiding him if that's an actual thing, maybe he plays within the system well enough to go against the Commander's defense that is number twenty nine in past DVOA. And then the big thing is that he's got the mobility, the explosiveness that Matt Ryan has never had. And in four years at college he was a pretty good runner.

You know, four hundred and fifty nine carries two hundred well, yeah, twenty five hundred and ten yards on the ground, thirty three rushing touchdowns, that's excluding sacks, and more importantly, one hundred and seventy three scrambles, and that like really is the difference that in theory, hopefully he can turn some of those those pressure dropbacks in sacks for Matt Ryan into chain moving improvised carries, right, and so I think that will be that will be the difference here in

this game. So this number was four on Sunday Monday, you know, four on Sunday night and Monday morning. Within an hour of the announcement that Matt Ryan had been benched, it moved down to two. It met resistance, and now it's back up to the key number three where you see it in most sportsbooks kind of you know, jumping

around between three and two and a half. I think the fact that it hit two and then moved back up to three, like that's the sign that the market thinks Ellinger can play or at least keep this game close. So I think the the explosiveness that he adds and the mobility that for me moves this towards the Colts at two and a half.

an added dimension to this offense. Also, it's like, from a preparation standpoint, they're going to run some different looks. You don't have a lot of film on them, so you know it's like, hey, we know what to do with Matt Ryan on second third long he just blits them and he can't move and then he throws a pick. So yeah, I think his mobility will add here. I don't know. The Colts games are so weird, like the only thing I know about, Like they always lose it

to Titans. Always bet them. They always play the Titans and loose to them, and they don't cover somehow on like Flukes. Then they always lose to the Jags. I do always have the Jags in Jacksonville, but all the results are so random to me, Like they beat the Chiefs at home, they should have lost that game. Then they covered against the Jags, like the last second touchdown somehow. I don't know here, I'm gonna heads of Colts. It's Colts, all right, there you go that that would be my line.

I have no clue, no clue. But with this line, cup down to three, Colts are nothing and Ellinger's mobility and the unknown for the prep here can only help the Colts.

bad defensive holding call on the packers. Packers getting really unlucky, like you mentioned these unlucky Packer things by the way, but he's he's gonna be. You could get bad Heinekey here and we'll have two turnaments that cost them the game easily. But that could happen with Ellinger. You can have good Heinekey. I don't know. This game is very very weird.

for an account with bet MGM. So get in on the action today, guys. Enjoy the football season and let's cash some tickets together.

they're just committed to the run. And I guess you know, you have Saquon Barkley, you have Daniel Jones, You're gonna be running the ball. You know, Barkley is the league leader with one hundred and forty three carries. I think you know, with him, he's the best back in the league, if not the best back in the league. A top three back right now, like certainly come back player of the Year Gino Smith aside. So I'm impressed with what he's doing. And you know Daniel Jones, I mean, he

is a legit running threat. He's had six carries in every game this year. Among quarterbacks, he's number four and rush attemts number three in rush yards. I mean, obviously last week he and Barkley both had one hundred yards on the ground. Like that's that's something you don't see that often, and when you do, it's normally like Lamar Jackson doing it. But you know, we got that last week.

And the Giants, Yeah, they're going to be without right tackle Evan Neil, they might be without their left guard. You know, I don't think either one of those guys has a big run blocking edge over the guys who were backing them up. And as mediocre as the Giants offense has been, they've been really good running the ball. You know that that is clearly the strength. They're number three in rush EPA for play. The Seahawks defense is

average against the run, number eighteen in rush EPA. And you know, I have the Giants power rated ahead of the Seahawks primarily because you know, I do trust Brian Dable more than I trust Pete Carroll is his situational decision maker. And as strong as the home field advantages at Lumenfield, I think that that is, if not the strongest home field advantage in the league, like top three, I still think that no team in today's NFL has

a three point home field advantage. So if the Giants can run the ball effectively against the Seahawks, I think they're.

last year. The injuries are now a bit concerning, you know, tight end to just a lot of guys out that are blocking for you at once. But I mean Look, they beat the Panthers by three at home, they beat you know, they come back to beat the Titans on the road by one. They lose the Cooper rush. They beat the Bears one possession at home. They come back and beat the Packers that they were down double digits

the fourth quarter. They down double digits the fourth quarter against the Ravens, like they got dominated that game was like seven to three and a half yards per play. Come back again to beat the Giants. They're outscoring teams fifty five to ten in the fourth quarter if you remove an intentional safety. Just insane. So eventually that luck is gonna run up. But they're well coached and so yeah, from a number of perspective, I can't really get here,

but it's an awful spot for the Giants. Like you know, the back to back road games from Jacksonville out the Seattle. Historically, teams haven't done that well. And I think this and the Giants defense has not been good. They are like last week, they get up seven yards per play some not only about seventeen points. There's a lot of holes there.

Gino has looked good against the Blitz too, and that's all the Giants they're gonna play man and they're gonna play Blotz dude, the two highest rates in the league. So I'd be more confident in the Seahawks offense here, although now you have an injury to one of your best receivers, so it's yeah, this is this is a weird game for me because it's two teams that have definitely overperformed. But the interesting thing to me, the interesting unit in this game is the Seahawks defense. And they

were horrendous. I thought they were gonna be one of the worst in the league, and they were thirty first DVOI JUSTI for opponent up until the past two weeks, and then over the past two weeks they're number one in the NFL. Yeah, and they played with the de Charters and the Cardinals, and they have some of these young corners, so like you could point to reasons why they would be improving. They got a lot of young pieces Dreik Wooland on one side is everyone talks about

Sauce Gardner. He is turning into a shutdown cornerback, same mold of the like Richard Sherman. He's the long, lanky cornerback that Pete Carroll's always loved. You got Kobe Bryant in the slot, and you know they're Their defense is playing a lot better and it wasn't against like terrible offenses like the Jets. Sorry for the dig So, I don't know. Is the Seewks defense improve. It's again, it's two games. There's a lot of noise. Weird things happen

in the NFL on a week week basis. But I'm interested in watching with the Seahawks defense does over the next few games. I don't mind taking the Giants on the number. My gut and the spot says the Seahawks get it done. But you can make a case for either side. Tough game.

and it just says mm and then period you. So like someone I think was messing like what are you up to and he's like, not much you but he tweeted it out. That's his only tweet he is like no followers, no following, and I messed it once like let me get this, Uh can I get Stucky one? But now uh always been Stucky too.

here with you and Matt. I just wanted to say, first off, to everyone at BP, it has been an awesome experience being here with all of you, Joe, Derek, Chris, so many names, even in my short time here, but especially to you guys that have listened and been fans of the show, and absolutely most importantly to you, Matt. Working with you over the past two NFL seasons, first at FTN and then here has been nothing short of some of the most fun that I have had in

this industry. And I am sorely going to miss being able to do this show with you, and I certainly know that we will keep in touch. But I truly cannot be more grateful for anything that anyone has done for my career more than I am to you and everything that you have been able to give me in terms of these opportunities to be here and doing this with you, And I just wanted to.