Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. With me as he is every week is Matt Perrault. You can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt Matt. What's going on?
Well, we are into the middle part of the year. Now, we gotta get our butts in gear this week.
Dan, God that last week. You know, beats happen both ways. You know, you get lucky sometimes, you know. But we turned a four and one week into a two and three week in a way that was just killer. With the Brown's missing the extra point to win by three. We had him at laying three and a half and the Seahawks just basically doing the fact. I'm glad they lost that game. I'm glad because they should have covered the three and a half points spread. But we'll get
into all of that. There are some games that we both like, although we have not talked about it as we did last week, we decided to you know what, no Leans even beforehand. We're gonna be fresh when we get into this. Hopefully we are on the same side of games because we are not always a couple of things before we get into the week eight slate number one discord. If you listen to the Daily Juice, which you should, you have probably heard about this. You may
be in it already. Last I checked, we had I don't know, over six hundred and fifty people in there already. It's just like a chat. Okay, you come in. There are different channels to talk about whatever you want. You can talk about any sport you want. Matt and I are in there popping in, we're talking, we're giving plays, things like that. But generally it's just the community for other people who are on betting pros who want to talk about various things. That's at bettingpros dot com slash chat.
You can join, no fee, you don't have to be a subscriber or anything like that. Second, our prop bet sheet sheet, by the way, Matt, that's what we're calling it now, just because I know, all right, that's what that's the name we have settled on prop bet sheet sheet. That's at bettingpros dot com slash props. You can go there.
That is going to compare consensus projections to props that are available in the market, and it gives you recommendations based on the delta between the consensus projections and the actual projections given out by the various sportsbook Now, this has just launched, so we are still kind of, you know, working through it, but it's a really interesting tool. We should go check it out again. Bettingpros dot com slash Props.
As always, we are going to get into every game on this week's late but as we kind of did, let's recap last week very quickly. Matt and I went two and three, two bad beats. We are now nineteen and sixteen on the season, fifty four point three percent. Okay, Now, if you are a regular sports gambler, that's Good's that you're beating what you want to do. But where we are in the DK Championship is not exactly where we want to be. We are let me see what the
number is. I can't find where we are exactly, but we are somewhere in the high two hundredths of the six hundred and ninety one. So we're in the top half. But we've got a long way to go.
Now.
The people who are cashing are I think only two games. I think they might be between two and three games. Ahead of us, Matt, but it's it's mostly people who haven't who have already taken a bye, so their percentages kind of in between two and three games ahead. So we have not buried ourselves by any meanings, but we've got to get going with a four and one week
or a five on one week. So last week we just had the wrong side on that Pats game against the forty nine ers, completely wrong side, missed on that one, and we lost on the Browns lanth three and a half to the Bengals on the missed extra point, and we lost on the Seahawks laying three and a half to the Cardinals on about eight different ways that the
Seahawks have covered that game. Now, we did win on one of the games that we both really like to start, the Panthers getting seven and a half from the Saints, and we also said that we were not gonna change based on our picks unless something happened. Well, we decided because we are liars essentially to get off the Packers laying three and a half to the Texans was the game that Matt didn't love at the time that we
picked it. He was initially on the other side, but we decided to get off that because Aaron Jones was not gonna play, and we Matt came around to what my topic was, which was the Bucks laying two and a half to the Raiders, which hit anyway, so a distinction without a difference. So anyway, I've got it now two hundred and ninety third out of six hundred eighty nine. So we need a big week here, Matt, are you ready? Are you ready?
If hear that, I am, I'm just gonna I'm still reeling from your vocabulary the delta. Wow, you're dropping big, big words here.
My friend correct, I read words.
Podcast or source.
I like see words. Good. All right, so let's get into it, Matt, who is your number one picker? Man, I'm so nervous because I'm so terrified because I have like five games that I'm like, I could deal with these games. I'm terrified we're gonna be on the wrong side. So go ahead, stars off.
Welcome to weather guys. Yes, this is the point of the year where you must be and you should be. Literally before you put a single dollar down in any bet, you have to look at the weather forecast. The worst weather game of the weekend is going to be in Cleveland, Ohio. Yep, we're having thirty to forty miles per hour wins. We're having cold temperatures. You might say, wow, that's a bad deal for the team from Las Vegas. No, this is a run team. This is a power football team. This
is a nasty football team. And they dink and dunk with the best of them. They don't throw deep at all. Baker Mayfield does not have Odo Beckham Junior. I'm catching two and a half points from the Raiders. Raiders will win this game outright. Raiders plus two and a half is my top pick of the week.
Okay, so, first of all, I saw you tweeting with I think Kevin Roth. Is that right?
Correct?
From right? Yes, He, by the way, is a great He's a you know, if you play daily fantasy sports, if you bet on sports, he's a great followup because he's great with the weather. And Yeah, there are I think three games where Wind and you and I talk a lot about it. It's like the one thing that you're worried about when it comes to sports gambling is Wind with football. That's a big difference. I'm gonna go ahead and write this one in Matt because I'm on
that side as well. Doesn't even even without the weather, Matt, I think this is a spot for the Raiders. I mean, the Raiders I think are a couple things. Number One, they're a better team than I think the public gives them credit for because I think right they have a stigma of what they were kind of last year, and just generally speaking, they're not a bad team. Their defense not great as of right now, but they had a
lot of injuries last week. They had the whole offensive line thing preventing them from practicing, which is why the Bucks I thought were needs to play. And the Bucks are really really good team. I get that they're coming, you know, to there. It's a cross country play here, but for me, I think they're going to win the
game out right as well. I think this is a little bit I think the whole the Browns could be better without Odell Beckham Junior talk is silly, like I think that, you know, I just I don't like it. So even without the weather, I like the Raiders here as well because I do think that this is just a game that they're gonna be able to generally speaking, keep tight, and I have confidence in them being able to pull it to pull it out in the end.
I'd like it a little more if I could get over three correct, but I do think they're gonna pull it out regards to the win, so I'm gonna write that one in it. It was my fourth pick for this week in terms of content, so I like it. So Raiders getting two and a half, there's a good start, good start, We like the first ride. Let me just check because I think the Let me check what our bet analyzer says about it against the spread, and it
looks like it is pretty split. I've got sixty all right, sixty one percent of our experts are taking the Raiders at two point five, so it has not moved from there. I was wondering whether or not the spread was gonna move, but at two and a half, we've got sixty one percent behind us, so that's always a good sign, all right, this one. I'm really interested, Matt in what you think of this one, because I'm looking at our bet analyzer and it's actually one of the more heavily picked games
right now the other way. But for me, I know it's a divisional game. I know one of the teams is undefeated, but I've got the Ravens coming off a bye here, and I feel really good at this This is finally the spot to sell the Steelers. Remember last year, I think it was last year when they destroyed your Patriots. I think that was them coming off a bye and that was when they and the Pats were undefeated. I think at that point and you were like, well, what's
gonna happen here? And I remember I took the Ravens then I like them.
Then.
I think having off by I think Lamar Jackson has been limited by this knee injury. I think giving him a week to sort of get better is good. I actually think mark ingram out is probably better for this team because I think it means more JK. Dobbins, and I think that that is very good for this team to go forward because I just think that Dobbins at this point is more explosive. He's gonna get more involved in the passing game. I think this is really when
the Ravens are gonna show whose boss right now. I think the loss of Devin Bush, by the way, especially in the running game here, it's gonna hurt the Steelers. It's finally going to show itself again. They came out like a house on fire last week, but then you saw the Titans just basically dominated the rest of that game. So for me, I don't love the hook more than you know three. But I think the Ravens are going to win this game, and I think they're gonna win in Handley.
So you can't see because we're not actually looking at each other as take video, but I've been nodding my head the entire time. Okay, so this is my third play, so put it in pen and I agree with every point you made. I think this is if you are a Daily Juice listener. I talked about this game when I gave out the Pittsburgh Steelers to win the division, because I believe the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to win the North, but they're going to lose this game here
against the Ravens. I think they're gonna split home and road, home and home. Basically. I I think Pittsburgh wins in Pittsburgh. I think Baltimore wins in Baltimore. Ye. I think that Jackson has been held back and they've been keeping him in check their play calling, keeping him in check due to the knee injury basically leading up to this game. This is time to let Lamar Jackson go. And I just think this defense is going to be able to shut down this offense for Pittsburgh. Look. I like the
Pittsburgh offense. I just don't think it's as explosive as everybody thinks it is. And I mean Claypool's come out of kind of nowhere here and become this incredible weapon. So, I mean hardball is off of a bye. I believe the number is nine and three against the spread off of a bye.
That's right, Okay.
Something really stupid that he just him with extra time is like Belichick with extra time. It's just And the first line was six, okay, so it was Baltimore minus six. All the money came in. This is the Black and Blue Division. This is always a three point game one way or the other. I know the hook there stinks. It's a little bit dicey for that one reason. If I bet it, when I do bet it, I'm probably gonna buy the half a point because I think three
is a much much better number. It's the most expensive thing to do at a sports book is to buy it from three and a half to three. It's probably mist one forty to go ahead and do it, but I think it's worth it. I'll play it in the contest. I'll lay the three and a half. With money, I'll lay three. But I like the Ravens two.
Yeah, and again they these teams play close. That is what they do. So I get when you see anything over a field goal, it makes you nervous either way. But I really think that they're gonna come out and this is going to be their spot. They're gonna come out and they're gonna be like, oh, do you do you think that this is gonna be your division right now? We're gonna show it off of by I just I really liked it when I first looked at the game, I'm not gonna lie. My first instinct was like, ooh,
because I have been honest. I was on the Steelers last week. Man, I like them, you like the Titans. I leaned towards the Steelers last week.
But you realized that Gezkowski is why that gave didn't go to overtime.
That is that.
Hatred of My hatred of Guzkowski has just quadrupled, and he is.
The poster boy for your anger in this betting season. That game actually made me like the Steelers a little less like I mean their offense. Of course, you've got the three wide receivers. But Ben doesn't look you know, intimidating right now with where he is. He just kind of think.
I think that's why when you saw the reaction of Roethlisberger when he when the miskick happened, I think he knew in overtime they were gonna lose. Yeah, I think he knew all everything was going against them, the momentum, everything was going to the Titans. All you needed was Gaskowski to make that forty eight yard kick, which he does not so and that gave the game to the Steelers. So I think this is a paper tiger six to oh Steelers team, and I think they get their first loss.
I love it, all right, So this is weird, but we are in agreement on our first two. Go to youre next one, all right?
One in three are off the board for me already here on my list Number two is. Look, I get why people are gonna go Matt the number stinks, and you don't know what two is gonna do. But I got a rookie quarterback going up against Aaron Donald. I'm gonna bet. I don't care where this game is being played on the moon. It doesn't matter to me. Rams minus four and a half against two a tag of Valoa.
Given that defense, with one touchdown being given up in the second half, that offensive line's not good for Miami. Fitzpatrick got the football out fast, two was not gonna do that. He's accurate, but he's not gonna be able to read defenses the way that Fitzpatrick can read defenses. He's not gonna have any time. He's gonna have Aaron Donald in his lap the entire time. And they don't want him to run because he's brittle. So he can't even use his legs in his first start because he'll
get hit and break. So to me, look, I like the Rams a lot more than most people do. I know it's on the road. I like the Rams to win this game by seven, and they may win it by even more, maybe a complete blowout here. I know it's a trap game because they've got a big game coming up next week back at home. So people are saying, Oh, they're gonna overlook the Dolphins. Okay, they might.
Now they have they have a buye Matt, Oh they.
Well think, well, yeah, but they have after but after the bye, they've got a game against Seattle. Seattle, so it's a big divisional game. But okay, find me going into a bye. Maybe they want to stay in Miami and party.
I don't know, but to me, but sometimes going into a bye, by the way, like teams do look at that and just sort of are like, all right, we just got a last one. We just got to get there. And their head is in the game. I get it ahead.
So sometimes they can but I or they can just say less it's on load because we got to weak off. No, we won't worry about it. I just I'm taking this. This entire pick is on the Rams defense going up against a rookie quarterback, and I just think they're going to destroy Tua. It's gonna be a bad game for Tua.
Okay, So I I definitely am not. Basically, this was a game where I don't have a lean, mainly because I don't. I mean, are you confident, Matt, Like, how do we know what to expect from Tua in this game? Like I other than of course whatever you've seen from him in Coe.
Because they're being forced to play him. I don't think this was the plan. I think this was all because Dolphin fans are mad because Justin Herbert looks legitimate and they're worried they pick the wrong quarterback.
No, no, no, no, no no. This had to have been the plan because they are doing so much better.
So you're telling me the plan was to start against Aaron Donald the career of two attag of a looa mister brittle. The plan was to have him start against the La Rams.
I think the plan was to have him start after the bye. That's exactly what I think it was. I think they were gonna because otherwise, First of all, if you're a Dolphins fan right now, you can't be mad at what you got. You they're in contention for the division. Fitzpatrick is playing well, there's no so.
You can don't want to be there. They want to lose what but why because they don't want They because Fitzpatrick is a guy. If he plays well, he could have a stake to the job, if.
Not long term and at least for one more.
Year if they go to the playoffs. I mean that's the problem. They want to lose and they want to see what they've gotten to and they've gotten tons of pressure because the numberumber one pick has been great, and the number six pick has been great, and the number five pick hasn't played.
Okay, So just to make sure I fully understand this, your theory is that they are making this switch to Tua because Dolphins fans are outraged because of the fact that the other rookie quarterbacks look good. Yes, and they should be playing to it.
Yes. And I believe that they know that Fitzpatrick is the short term deal and they want to know what they've got, so they're going to go ahead. Because if they were actually planning on doing this, they didn't tell Fitzpatrick, which is basically malpractice. Yeah, so he didn't he didn't know. He was crying, he was so upset about it. My heart's broken. I've been benched before, but never like this.
I mean, that's why that's why I think it was. I agree that didn't tell him, but I think that's why it was their plan, no matter how well he played, because he was playing as well as you know, he was the good fits here for a couple of weeks and they were legitimately in contention. I can't seem well anyway.
Look, they've got to ever fence right now. This number one in the NFL in third down conversion. You get off, They get off the field like crazy right now in Miami. Their defense is hard to go up against that The forty nine ers couldn't do anything against their defense. I just think that they believe that they have a playoff caliber team, and that's not really what they wanted to
go ahead and do. So they say, all right, if we're gonna go to the playoffs, let's play Tua because maybe we do have something here, and let's see what Tua can do. I just can't believe they're going up against one of the top four, top five defenses in the NFL and they're choosing to start him in this type of environment where their offensive line doesn't block very well. Okay, look, I could be dead wrong, but I'm telling you this.
I'm gonna say this. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back starting for this football team within three weeks.
Oh my goodness, your Dolphins takes are hot right now. All right, So here's the deal. I'm not gonna take that one off the table. I'm not gonna put it in yet because I don't have a good line, a good lean on the game. Part of me but everything you're saying makes sense. Two things make me nervous. One is again the cross country trip to Miami on a short week makes me a little nervous. Number two is I don't like variables Matt like I do like when there is somebody who I haven't like. I will tell
you the truth. I thought, justin Herbert, if I knew that he was going to be starting early this year, I would have bet significant money that he would have been terrible because I did not think that he looked ready, and he's.
Hard knocks proved it. He couldn't call a play. I mean he could take a snap under center. He couldn't take a snap under center at hard knock. So I mean what they showed us was that might have been sandbagging there, but they show that he wasn't ready.
Well that's what I'm saying that I don't know what it's gonna look like when these rookies get on the field for the first time. So I don't hate it, I'm not off it. And seventy the line the consensus line is three and a half, but seventy one percent of experts are on the rams in this one, so that that certainly you know you're not alone in that, although I will say again I said that the Steelers were the other way. Seventy six percent are on the
Steelers getting three and a half. I'm totally fine to fade that, yep. But yeah, that's I'm gonna put that one to maybe ket because I don't hate it. I had that one in a bucket of Matt can convince me if we're sort of there, But I definitely don't hate it. And I think if I had to pick a side, it would be with the Rams. That's what I had. So we'll put that one in the maybe categories.
So not doing terrible, Okay. I'm interested to know how you feel about this game, and that is the Saints laying four and a half to the Bears in Chicago. Now there's gonna be wind in. This is one of the win games. I believe it is a.
Right the games, the worst weather games.
It's one of the worst weather games. I kind of feel, and I may be wrong, maybe it doesn't. I kind of feel number one it goes for the under. But I alan Robinson. I don't know if he's gonna play right now. He has missed practice. He's in the concussion protocol. He has missed practiced both days this week. If Alan Robinson doesn't play, who is getting the ball other than David Montgomery? I mean, is it Moody? Is Anthony Miller gonna play? Jimmy Cram This Bears offense, and you saw
it on Monday night. And that's why I liked the Rams giving six and I picked it on the bettingpros dot Com in the platform. The Bears can't move the ball man, and the Saints can stop the run. They have a very solid run defense. So they think they're just going to rely on Dave Montgomery, whether it's passing the ball to the running backs, whether it's running the ball. I don't really see it happening. And the good thing about the wind is that what can you do in
the wind. You can run the ball, and you can kind of dink and dunk. And that is all the Saints do right now with Drew Brees is dink and dunk their way to putting up thirty five points a game every single game. Michael Thomas Meanwhile, I'm not even expecting Michael Thomas or Emmanuel Senders to play. I don't care. But Michael Thomas has returned to practice right now. He may play. If he plays, I really like it at
four and a half. Even if he doesn't, this is as much of a bet against the Bears right now as it is in favor of the Saints. So for me, I like the Saints laying four and a half on the road in Chicago.
Yeah. I was really annoyed because I tease that game perfectly and if you know the pick in the end zone, I need two more points. They lost play fourteen. I tease it to twelve, and I just it was so frustrating because the interception that Nick Folls through in and the end zone was awful. The one he threw on the sideline was awful, and then he had a wide open receiver at the end of the game where if he just put the ball out there, it was an
easy walking touchdown. He's just awful. Okay, He's just straight up awful. I I'm gonna this will be a maybe for me. I very much prefer the the Alvin Kamara prop bets on this game, So like, that's where I'm gonna be betting. Is Kamara like crazy? So I'm not gonna bet this game, but I am gonna bet the Kamara has a monster game doing I mean, having running and receiving yardage. This is his game, Okay. Yeah, And my only question is, you know, do we see any snow?
Do we see anything wet? Any real wet? You know it's supposed to be wet, soggy, and windy, Okay, which is a really nasty combination to play football in. So I my initial thought when I started breaking down this game was to take the Bears at home getting four and a half points.
Oh interesting, that was my initial Bears in your initial lead.
But but as we as I went through looked at the injuries, and I looked at the defense. In running, you're you're aboute right about the Rams. Sorry, the Saints against the run, they are very good stopping the run. They're not great through the air, but if there's wind and rain, you're not throwing the ball very much. In Nick Fan, they can pass anyway, man, Like I mean, if Alan runs in Jimmy Graham looks like he's running in slow motion.
He is still a great red zone threat when he's when you're at the end zone, great, he can still sort of wrestle that ball away. But other than that, no, and again Alan Robinson, he's a big deal right now. They have nobody else that wide. I mean, Tagan still plays football and he'll get more work if he's if you know. And they can't push it deep. They just can't in that weather. I mean, I just this just
strikes me. And again, this is more of a spot where you sort of typically would be thinking about about the Bears. I mean, they're they're favored by four and a half at home, They're coming off and embarrassing loss. They're on a short week too, though, I mean, it's really it's just.
Well, I think the idea of that not being able to score as accuratecause they scored three points in perfect conditions in Los Angeles, Okay, and that's a very good defense, like the Rams better than the Saints. But the Saints is not that far behind and the defensive lines out that far behind the Rams. So I I that's where I think it's the right sidecause it could be a seven to three, you know, it could be a ten to three victory.
For I think. And the one thing that I will say is again, the Saints are essentially built for something where you can't push the ball downfield, that's how their entire offense works. They don't push the ball downfield on a good day, So what difference does it make it they can't do so here they'll find I mean, Peyton's gonna find creative ways to get Kamara in space, or they'll do something with you know.
What, Taysom Hill's got to stop man this.
Yeah, you're gonna see a lot of Tasom Hill in this game.
That's absolutely.
That is going to be obnoxious, but you are going to see it.
But they're going to design plays and design runs, and they're gonna try to take advantage of Khalil Mack getting up the field and all the things that you think of what they're going to try to do, they're gonna do. I think it's in the maybe category.
I okay, well, but that's fine, that's fine.
It's possible. It's definitely possible. For all.
Right, go to your next one.
My next one is and I'm gonna kind of hold my nose here because I hate the number. But I'm gonna take Seattle laying three and a half here, and I think Seattle, I don't love this Seattle team. At the moment. I'm a little concerned about Seattle just because of their defense. But San Francisco is not as good as the Patriots made them look. Okay, that was just an awful performance for the Patriots. But I mean I look at Seattle's offense, I look at DK metcalf, I
look at the way that Russell Wilson's playing. I just think that they were more talented team than San Francisco. Jimmy Garoppolo is I mean, he threw he should have thrown at least two interceptions that game against the Patriots, and he just the balls were just straight up dropped or not played properly by the Patriots defense. Stefan Gilmour, I don't know what's going on with him. I think I think the trade talks are really bothering him, and he's just not mentally sharp right now, and that's a
big concern. But to me, I'm only gonna lay three and a half points against San Francisco. I'm taking Seattle, all right.
This is another game that I don't have a great lean one to the extent I go one way or the other. It is with the Seahawks, and the reason is the one with Deebo. Samuel is out for this game. Okay, so it's gonna be George Kittle and and for the Seahawks aren't terrible against tight ends, but Kittle's not. You can't consider Kittle like a normal tight end. The Seahawks are generally not good against the past. They can stop the run, though, And who's going to be running for
the ball for the forty nine Ers. I don't really know. I mean, I guess to Michael Hasty and is Jack McKinnon actually going to get any carries? I don't really know. The Seahawks, meanwhile, can put a points on anyone. And the forty nine Ers defense is not not what it what we thought it would be coming into the season with all the injuries. So I don't hate it. I don't love a divisional game, and I don't love that. I feel like Matt and maybe correct me if I'm wrong.
I feel like you and I have not had a good read on the forty nine Ers for the most part. The one game that we had them in was was it they were getting three and a half from the Rams maybe.
And they and the one that came out right, yeah tw weeks right, we had to.
So that right, that was the one that we had we I feel like we take them every week. We didn't have them against the Patriots. We didn't have that one. You know, maybe that was the patriotswe didn't have well. But either way, I'm okay with it. I'm not crazy about it. It's a maybe right now. So there are none where I'm on the other side on this one. So that one, oddly enough, that is the most one
sided game in our bet analyzer, and it is the Seahawks. Now, the Seahawks are only laying three in the consensus line and so a little bit different, but that is the one that has the most. By the way, I'm not sure if I gave the numbers for the Saints, sixty six percent of experts to put in picks like the Saints at four and a half. So I'll put that one in the maybe. So we've we've gone through five picks.
We've got two in and we've got three maybes, and we've got so if these are our five picks, we will live with it, which is a great sign already through five games. So here's my next pick. We'll get to and I you know what, Matt, when I look at this line, I feel like the line should be more, and so the fact that it isn't makes me concerned. And then I look at our bet and it is the game that experts are most split on, and that is the Colts laying two and a half to the Lions.
Now.
I get that it's in Detroit. I get that the we hate the Colts in a lot of ways. But you're basically telling me that the Colts, who are coming off a buye and are getting healthier. Darius Lennard is healthy, he's going to play Michael Pittman Junior, which this was the target the whole time, is probably gonna play Trey Burton has helped that offense coming in versus a Matt Patricia coach Lions team that's under a field goal. To me, this seems like an obvious spot for the Colts, but
I do not. That's not what the you know, the market is saying. I from what I've looked at, the money is not coming in that way. So I must be missing something. Tell me what I'm missing.
I don't know if you're missing anything, as much as you're trying to trust bad football teams, and you.
Think that the Colts are a bad had football team right now, yeah, I don't think so. I I just isn't impressive. But their defense is legitimate.
Okay, but the overall, you gotta play both sides, and I just I think in in the in the in the division that they're in, they can't just play defense. You gotta score.
And that's true.
I I just so I just don't think, you know, when you look at even in this game, I mean, I think you're gonna have to score in this game. I mean I think their defense is gonna give up some points.
So I don't know how many points there. I mean maybe why are do you trust? I mean you you have faith in the Lions to.
I just think I just think in terms of games like this, I look at who has the better quarterback? Right, it's better coaches and better quarterbacks, and the coaching side is probably a wash.
But what what what what what is happening? The coaching side from against the Lions is a wash.
I look, I'm not a frank right guy. I mean, I just I'm not, and I never have been. I just I think it's a great offensive mine, but I think he's got a bum quarterback. So I just I'm not really on that.
Well to be clear, the quarterback does not impact the coaching. I mean, the coaching is the coaching.
Correct, but the quarterback can't The coach can't do much with this quarterback. I mean they have tied their themselves to an anvil.
I mean, you know, you know that if Todd Gurley had managed to fall down an inch earlier. Uh, the Lions lose to the Falcons last week?
Right sure? Like like the Falcons were able to do. I mean, the Lions were able to do what you're supposed to do when you're given a break, go take advantage of it. They went right down the field and got a two point conversion. So I mean, look, I'm not saying you're wrong about this side. I'm just saying that I don't trust this Colts team to do just about anything right now. I missed on them. I thought they were going to be a contender to win the AFC.
They're not even a contender to win the Vision.
I agree with you there that they've been to me, it's mostly on Rivers. It's mostly because Rivers looks toast. I agree with that, But I do think that you give them by. I think you're gonna see so much Jonathan Taylor in this.
Game, I dontake. I don't know if it's any good.
I he Admittedly, I'm not going to deny that he has not looked great in the first several games.
He looks like a running back who had way too many carries in college, which he did, and he hit the NFL and he doesn't have that half a second more speed you need to get away from the defenders that you've got, like with like a Jacob's right, didn't didn't get used at all in college, hit the NFL fresh as a daisy, and look what he's doing. I mean, I just think he was Wisconsin rides and drives their running backs into the ground, and I don't think this
guy's got much left in the tank. It's really unfortunate because I love the kid in college.
But I'm not willing to draw that conclusion from you know, a few games in the pros and the fact that he's had whatever.
Runs into the line he hetside reads.
You know him a fantasy man, all right. I'm I've been extremely frustrated in watching him what looks like run directly into his offensive fall down. I agree with you. I agree with you. I think there's more to him, and I think that there go. I think he's somebody who probably needs like additional Don't give me Jordan Wilkins or Nai Minds anymore. Please give it to Taylor. Let him. Let me see what he can do with twenty carries as he gets warmed up and he beats them the
defense little bit. But that's fine, It's okay. And again, you are not on the island. I am on the island, and I'm like, and I'm like planning my flag on this island, and I am willing to basically call it the Dan Harris Island. And that is because I am taking the Colts and I feel completely fine about it, and I appear to be the only one. So that's fine.
We'll move that one off. That one because you don't like that game as much as you say, with like the Saints, if you had to pick between the two, the Saints thing four and a half, right, yeah, you would rather that one, yes, the way, So I'll put the Colts away. Go to your next game if you have any left that you like, just one more, okay, And this is this is the biggest.
Twenty twenty play of all Okay, in any other season, I would never, and I mean capitol n never pick this game. But I'm gonna lay nineteen and a half points and take the Casey Chiefs at home against the Jets.
Oh oh my goodness. Okay, and here's why.
Okay, the weather's gonna be awful. Okay, it's it's got the potential. It's right now, it's leaning towards that like orange yellow category. It may be okay by game time, we'll see, but it's still gonna be late October early November at Arrowhead Stadium. It's not really a great place to go and play. It's cold. But you've got a team in the Jets that are just done. That was their game last week. They had a chance to play the Bills. They had a chance to potentially win that
game against the Bills, and they didn't do it. They are deflated, They demoralized, and I think the Chiefs are gonna run the ball down their throat and I just think they're gonna put up thirty thirty five points and win this thing thirty five to three.
Okay, So that is the side I am on as well.
Somehow, it was twenty one when it opened. It was back down because the numbers for twenty point favorites since nineteen eighty eight, teams that have been favored by twenty points or more are I believe, one and eight against the spread. So was this nineteen and a half? This is not twenty So let's blow that twenty point threshold.
So you I mean, I worry slightly maybe about the the you know, last minute cover if it's basically pull everybody, of course, but I do like it because they the Jets are not going to be able to stop the Chiefs under any part of their game. You know, Le'Veon Bell is going to score at least one, if not two touchdowns in a revenge game, and the Jets can't put up real points on anybody. So for me, I
really don't dislike this game. And there's one additional reason why I kind of like it in this contest, Matt. It's because I don't think it's going to be heavily picked. I think people are going to take the points with the Jets. What if you look at the way it's broken down, the the you know, the value plays, now that we've gotten into it a little bit, the most heavily picked side are often the value plays that I've seen like sometimes you're like, wow, that's a really public play.
That seems to be what it is doing in the beginning. Especially lately, I feel like the people who are in this contest, or at least the people who are doing well in the contest, are taking the value plays. So I think it's a little contrarian here to do it, which is why I actually like it for the contest. So, I mean, I don't know if we could put it in. We could just put it in. It's okay with me, all right, whatever, Yeah, let's just put it in. Chiefs
laying nineteen and a half to the Jets. Man, where are we twenty twenty? Okay?
Right? Any other year, There's no way I would ever. I would lay the Jets every single time, just blindly bet it. You give me nineteen points, twenty points, I'm betting the dog every single time. But this is just a very unique circumstances, and you up a great point. The Le'Veon Bell revenge bleep U factor is high in this game.
What's the prop? We are going to look up the prop? I'm Leveon Bell squares a touchdown and you are going we are going to tell people.
To bet it might be like minus one twenty. I mean, I'm serious, it might not even be like plus money. Normally it's like plus four hundred for an indivital touchdown, Like you have to lay juice, lay down juice to bet Le'Veon bell because they're gonna force feed in that football every time in the red zone.
Seventy percent of experts are on the Chiefs, like nineteen and a half bet. That's crazy. Okay, So that's it for your game. So look, we'll put in the Raiders getting two and a half from the Browns, the Ravens laying three and a half points to the Steelers, and the gross Chiefs laying nineteen and a half points to the Jets. So those are our three that will put in. That's fine, and you're done with the games that you.
Like, Yeah, that's it for me.
Okay. So I don't love any of these remaining games. I'm gonna throw them out and let's talk through them and see if we like any others. Other than that, We've got three that are right now on the table that we don't hate. So we're gonna have picks this week. We'll be Okay, how do you feel about the Eagles laying seven and a half to the Ben Denucci led Cowboys in Philadelphia.
I hate the hook. Yeah, if it was seven, I would say yes, But I don't like the seven and a half. I just feel like that's a little bit too heavy. And I mean, look the Cowboys offense. I don't know what. He didn't look good when he came in for for Andy Dalton. He didn't look good.
So now he's got a week to prepare to get better. It's a little different and the offensive line is healthier, so that will help. But I can't have faith in bend to Nucci. I don't love the game at at all, so I'm not I don't think I like it more than the rest of our games. If I lean one way, even with the hook, I still like the Eagles.
But if we're going primetime games, I would prefer that the Bucks laying ten and a half.
I don't think that game either. By the way, there's the COVID concerns right now with their offensive line going on, so that's fine. Interesting. The consensus line is up to eight and a half for this Eagles game, and still are experts Seventy six percent are picking Eagles, but I don't. I don't.
You know that's gonna crash come game day, by the way, because because Dallas Cowboys money will come in like crazy, you might be able to get that in seven closer to game time, the Cowboys fans will just bet that like nuts.
Yeah, okay, So I'm fine with that game. I don't. I don't have a particular preference for it over any of the other games we talked about. What how do you feel about the Chargers laying three and a half to the Broncos in Denver?
I hate it in Denver because historically the Chargers don't play well there.
Yep.
And you know, with Denver you're always worried about those freak snowstorms popping up and changing things that could happened last week. Herbert's not really a guy that I'm gonna trust in the I don't think he's fine in the cold, in the in the in the rain, but in the snow. I don't know if you ever played a snow game before.
So I'm a little concerned about him there. And look, they have to pass the football, they got to throw a keeling a key and Allen was outstanding last week for them, so he was huge, so they're gonna have to throw the ball. So I'm a little concerned about the weather. You know, if I had to pick it, I would say the Chargers, But historically speaking, I'm a little concerned about them on the road at Denver.
That's how I feel too, that the side that I lean is the Chargers, but I don't love it, like I'll probably, you know, take them. The consensus line is actually down to three, so I'll definitely take them Drew lock I you know, I don't trust Drew Locke. He's not good under pressure. They're gonna get a lot of pressure. As they've gotten healthier, they've gotten Ingram back on that line. So I do think that the Chargers are ultimately going to come away with it. But I really don't like
taking road teams in Denver. It's just like a natural thing because I just it's an environment that I just never feel comfortable in. So that's fine, let's go to how do you feel about this one? Because you know, I feel like the quote unquote sharp side is with the Vikings, but I kind of like the Packers laying six and a half to the Vikings in Green Bay.
I believe this is the worst weather game of the weekend, is it not.
Yeah, this is one where weather's going to factor in.
Yes, I think it's gonna be bitterly cold and really really nasty. So, I mean, this is a Dome team on the road. I can't I can't get behind anybody but green Bay here.
I like green Bay, That's what I'm saying. The other you know, the generally, and look, they're probably gonna be down. Aaron Jones here, he hasn't practiced, but you saw Jamal Williams. Yeah, he and Alan Lazard, by the way, is suddenly practicing. I didn't even realize that he had a chance. I don't know if he has a chance to play this week or anything, but if he does, that obviously helps. I just think that you could see because I believe
that the Packers. One of the reasons why I'm a little hesitant on it is I think the Packers have a Thursday night game following against San Francisco that could certainly be something where they could be looking ahead where even though it's the Vikings, the Vikings are a terrible football team right now, there's all this talk of selling. I could see the Packers basically coming up with a short week, kind of not focusing on it as much
and letting the Vikings hang around a little bit. And I could see if Dalvin Cook is fully healthy, the Vikings having a lot of because Green Bay really can't stop the run, having a lot of success keeping it close running the ball that I could see it. But overall the Vikings, man, they can't. They've got Their defense is horrific. Right now, Rogers is playing really well. You know, I would take the Packers, although they're off a bye and Zimmer usually has them playing well off of by.
So here's here's the weather. It's a high thirty eight. The number that everybody, if you're new a sports gambling the number you have to look at are sustained wins at twenty five miles or higher. Okay, that's the number, not gusts. Don't worry about gusts as much. You want sustained wins. These are sustained wins for twenty five to thirty five miles per hour, with occasional wind gusts between
forty and forty five miles per hour. Okay. That is a significant weather game for the Green Pay Packers and screams under Okay, screaming under for Green Bay and Minnesota. I just if i'm I would never bet the Vikings. I would never bet Kirk Cousins in a weather game at Green Bay. No, no, So.
That's what I'm saying. If there's any side that we would take care, it would be the Packers. But that the weather also makes me a little just it's a variable. You know, you don't know what it's going to do necessarily to the game. So if you came in and you like the Packers are one of your pick, I would write it in. But you know, if it's something where it's.
Put it in the maybe category, I mean, i'm, I'm, I'm because of the weather, you know, I do think the Vikings are going to struggle on the score in that gas.
Yeah, I agree. Okay, that is good. All right, let's finish up with the rest of the slate just so we could talk it out. Oh boy, this is probably your nightmare. How do you feel about the Bills laying three and a half to the Patriots in Buffalo?
So I'm probably gonna bet the Patriots, And the reason is the weather, which is gonna be ra This is one of the games where it's gonna be windy and wet, so it's not just gonna be cold. It's not just gonna be windy. It's gonna be wet, windy, and cold. So that leans towards a Patriot game because the Bills are not built for this step of weather anymore. Okay, they are an offense that has to throw the ball
down the field. They have become a warm weather team playing in Buffalo, New York, which is really kind of a strange decision. But I mean, Digs isn't bad. But Diggs has he played indoors with the Vikings and play outdoors, so he has experienced, but not as much as you would think coming over from Minnesota. This is you know, Alan played at Wyoming, but he hasn't looked good in weather, so it's kind of weird. It's like, didn't you play
your football at Wyoming? But he hasn't looked great. Patriots are gonna run the ball, their offensive line is healthy. I think they lose the game by three. I like the hook there. Patriots lose to the Bills by three and when't and cover that Reno point spread.
Yeah, this is the game. I have absolutely no desire to bet, right, You know.
I mean we're talking because the Edelman news is gigantic, and I don't know how the fan, how the team's going to react to Edelman being out for at least a couple of weeks exactly.
Yeah, I might. I don't think we're gonna see Edelman maybe at all for the rest of the season.
It wouldn't shock me. I think Patris may have shut him down and just say, why play him this year because this year is a wash. She'll let's just get ready for next year.
Yeah, that's exactly how I feel. But again, I'm at the point where I don't I don't trust the Bills right now. I mean, no, congratulations you have won, yeah, or.
Really there, I mean they came back down to earth with a big old.
I had to watch that game closely last week because it was against the Jets, and my daughter likes the Bills because she likes animals and they're from Buffalo, so she likes the Bills, and so we were all rooting for the Bills because I'm rooting for the Jets to lose at this point, to go on sixteen and I was like, I was like screaming. I was like, what are you doing? Right now.
Why you know, that was the weirdest teaser sweat I've had in a long time. I'll tell you that that is of all the games I've teased in my life. That was really weird. To have Bill's minus four and to sweat that thing the way they had to sweat that thing out. That was just ridiculous watching that bat of football being played and being concerned about not winning my bet.
Yeah. Well, the consensus generally is going with Buffalo, which the consensus line is minus four, but it's not a game that I want at this point at all. Last game that we haven't talked about, which you briefly mentioned, is the Bucks laying ten and a half to the Giants. I think we're both on the same side, which is, if we're forced to pick a side, we'd go with the Bucks. Yeah, is that right?
I don't hit. I mean, I'm not even forced. I think the Bucks You're gonna win that game and just na name the number to me. So it just spent upon what the Giants are gonna give up because the Giants aren't gonna score much.
Yeah, I mean, you know, I don't. I don't think it matters. The fact really that god Win is out because I think they're gonna be able. The Bucks are gonna be able to do whatever they want. There's no Brown, so it's really just Evans, who you know, looks gimpy, but it doesn't really matter at that point.
Dick Mike Evans gets traded.
Nope, I don't. I think they they write it out. I I think that Okay.
So if that happens, yeah, who punches who first? Brown punches him first or Evans punches him first.
No, I think it's gonna be a mutual one where they're both going to do it exactly. It's gonna be like Rocky Rock Rock.
Three, right, Yeah, simultaneous. I'll buy that because Antonio Brown's gonna take every single touch that Michael Mike Evans is supposed to have.
Yeah. Well, to be fair, Mike Evans hasn't gotten that many touches in games.
Because he can't run roats. Brady won't pro to you. If you're not gonna run run the route that Brady wants you to, he's not thrown it to you. And that's we've seen you know this, We've seen so many receivers come to New England and get frozen out, and you're like, why why, And it's Brady. And if you don't do it the way Brady wants, he goes to Gronk every darn time.
Yep. And so you are right, and Gronk, by the way, looking much better.
That's how we should have looked the whole time. I mean, it's just they weren't using him properly. Now they finally are.
All right, So let's talk it out. We've got three in pen, the Raiders getting two and a half from the Browns, the Ravens lanth three and a half to the Steelers, the Chiefs laying nineteen and a half points of Jets. Wow, welcome to twenty twenty. And so here are the games that are under consideration, the ones. We've got two that you like and two that I kind of like. So maybe we'll go one and one. There.
You like the Seahawks laying three and a half to the forty nine Ers and the Rams laying four and a half to the Dolphins. All the Rams lank four and a half the Dolphins. Is one of your topics?
Yeah right, yep.
So that my guess is that's the one you want.
If I'm gonna I'm gonna be Yeah, if you tell me to pick well of that group, it would be the Rams.
Yes, all right, so let let's let's keep going with my two. First, I like the Saints lank four and a half to the Bears and the Packers lank six and a half to the Vikings. So I like both of those games pretty evenly. I'm good to pick one of of yours and one of mine, if you're good with that.
Yeah, I mean I I don't mind taking both of yours. Actually, just because it's under seven the weather comes in is a factor we're fading the Vikings.
Yep.
I mean, if I'm as we're talking this out, if I'm going to stack the game, I probably would stack your two above my Rams. Okay, in terms of just in terms of in the contest where we're kind of trying to eliminate, like you mentioned variables, and the two thing is, if I'm wrong about two and he sets the world on fire, I'm done. The BET's done. Yeah.
So I feel more confident saying that the Packers at home with Aaron Rodgers with a crap weather game will win and win handily over the Vikings than I am about taking on a quarterback who I have no idea what he'll look like. Really, I'm banking him on him sucking, but if he doesn't, I'm in trouble.
What I like about these also is that I really think they are going to be a few games that we're not on the main side. Like I think a great majority of people are going to take the Vikings because that seems to be the sharp side. There's no way I'm doing it. But from everything I'm sort of looking at and the way the money's coming in right now, it's been on the Vikings, I don't get it. I don't think that the Chiefs are going to be heavily picked. I think that people are going to take the points
with the Jets. I think people are going to like the Steelers in this game getting three and a half given where they are. So I think we've got good ones. Okay, so that's it. So there our last two them will be the Saints slaying four and a half to the Browns and the Packers laying six and a half to the Vikings.
No Saints to the Bears, I mean to the Bears.
What did I say, the Browns? Yeah? Yes, I should read my own writing better. I'm sorry, we are taking the Raiders getting to and a half.
Yeah, the only games I stand on tables for the Raiders and in the Ravens, those are those are games I'm betting. Those are games that that that I'm putting money behind, and I like them the most. I'm gonna bet the Rams game as well, But I'm not just sitting on the table as I am about the Raiders. In the Baltimore Ravens, those I feel strong about those two plays.
I think in the end, you're probably right about the Rams, but I'd rather sit back and see what's gonna happen, now, right, that's fair?
I agree?
All right, So those are five picks. I feel okay about these, Matt. It's going to be fun to be ruining just for the Jets. God help me. If the Jets miraculously something were to happen and they won this game, oh could you imagine? Like it would legitimately be my nightmare because all I need them to do is lose out and then I'm taking them.
And then everybody who has the Chiefs left over and the survivor pools are done.
Oh my god, that that that is right?
Because if you have the Chiefs on the board. Still, this is the game you're playing the chief song.
I'm just trying to find the Chiefs are minus twenty five hundred on the money line. So yeah, that sounds about right. I just wanted to say what it is, but you could go Jets plus twelve whatever. All right,
so good picks as always. Follow me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi and Matt at Sports dooc Matt if we make any changes, which we really are going to try not to do unless something some big news happens, because we find that the original bets are almost always better than anything we've changed them too, I will let
you know on Twitter again. Go subscribe and listen to the Daily Juice podcast, my favorite podcast, which you can find on Betting Pros dot com, slash Daily Juice, or anywhere you listen to podcasts Betting Pros dot com, slash YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros always mix it Up.
You can see Matt's live stream Sunday mornings eleven to twelve on at Eastern Center Time and go to Betting Pros dot com slash Chat join our discord, talk to me, talk to Matt, talk to everybody else who loves sports betting. In the meantime, good luck with your bets this weekend and we will talk to you next weeks.
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