Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. We are heading into week eight. It is time to talk about our best bets, and here to do that with me is Ryan Noonan, the director of Betting over at four for four Football and co host of the Move the Line podcast. Find them on Twitter at RYE noon In. Ryan, thanks so much for joining me today. How you doing.
I'm well, Dan, Thanks for having me body. I appreciate it.
I always enjoy talking shop with you me too.
You're doing great work by the way over there, and I don't know if I congratulated you by the time you took over, you know, head of the director of betting over there, but you do great work. Your podcast is great and look, I you know I should trail you more. You've been quite quite hot this entire NFL season. So are you ready to keep it going?
Yeah?
You know, just trying to find the edges we can. This is a hard game, you know, this speculator, you know, against the spreads especially, so try to find any of the edges we can, so you know, we try to spend a lot of time in the player prop streets or little edges and team totals. I love team totals. We got one for you today. Those have been unsustainably hot for me. But hopefully I do not go off the rails with you today, Dan. I hope we can continue to give winners to your audience.
Yeah. I really hope you don't screw it up by the time on this podcast. But whatever, man, it's fine if you do.
All right.
Before we get into it, let's remind you about the latest offer from our sponsor, bet MGM. New customers bet ten dollars, win two hundred dollars if your team scores a touchdown again ten dollars. Any NFL game, win two hundred dollars in free bets if your team that you bet on scores a touchdown. That's available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona,
and Yoming with the code Juice one hundred. Again, that's the code you got to use for new customers to be able to get that offer. Again. That's the daily Juice is where that code comes from our other podcast, which you should be listening to. Also, it is almost the end of the month, which means we are basically
ready to give away our sign Saquon Barkley Jersey. All you gotta do to enter to our contest is to leave review for the show on Apple Podcasts or cast box and then go to betting pro dot com slash review. If you're a subscribe to our YouTube channel, you get three times the entry YouTube dot com slash betting pros Quickly, let us recap last week. Our guest Ian McMillan, hit
on two of his three bets. He hit on the Bengals on the money line at plus two thirty over the Ravens, great pick there, and the Bucks laying twelve and a half to the Bears. He missed on the Jets Patriots under forty two and a half, a game I admittedly also liked very much. I had my first losing week since Week one. I went one and two. I missed on the Panthers lank three to the Giants, had the Eagles as well getting through from the Raiders,
which was just wrong. I did hit on the Giants and the Panthers under forty three, So that puts me at thirteen to eight on the season. Let's go. I'm very excited to not have to deal with so many teams on by Remember we'll be using betting pros dot Com Consensus, all the good stuff. You can check us out on the app. Do whatever you want there. Check out the leader board. Ryan, You are our guest. Our guest gets to make the first selection. Go ahead, what's your number one pick?
All?
Is pressure?
Man?
Like?
You have those your first losing weeks since week one?
Correct? Look it's three bats every time, so I'm going three and hour two in one. It's fine. Look you're the guy. I see the tweets coming out about how you never get a single pick wrong. So if you don't go three and oh here, I don't know, never allowed back Ever, that's.
Not coming from my accounts. I don't know where that's coming from.
Those are false falsehoods for sure. You know what, I'll go with the team total to start, Dan, because you know this is kind of this that is where maybe the talk of me being maybe better than than advertised is coming so far. So you know, can I start a little bit with philosophy? Is I think team totals are I think there's an edge there. I think that
there's an inefficient market in team totals. They are not typically set specifically by the books, and what I mean by that is that it's simply derived from the spread in the game total. And then what happens is is some of these books, the majority of the main books that we have access to, move them as the line or the total moves, and what happens is we get these little buying windows where we can work around key
numbers that becomes really advantageous. We know, like three and seven key numbers and spreads totals, Like there's the distribution of totals and points scored is changing as this game continues to change, where you know, we have these key numbers up in the upper fifties which we've never had before, but we have some you know, common key numbers in the twenties that sometimes we'll get some buying opportunities. There's one this week, I like the Rams over thirty and
a half points against the Texans. Again, when you look at how the distribution of scores happened, thirty one ends up being a pretty key number in team totals. And this Texans team is terrible. And when we've seen the Rams, I think they were kind of caught off guard last week. You know, we had the Dan Campbell kitchen sink game. Would you love to see when you know that you're up against the up against it, you're the massive underdog here. Let's try to give you everything we can to give
ourselves the best chance. And they hung around a little bit. The Texans don't have that. They don't really have anything defensively that makes you think that they can slow down anything that the Rams are doing. The Rams can beyond cruise control and still hang crooked numbers. We know that they like to throw late they you know, I think we saw a Cooper Cup touchdown a couple of weeks ago when they were, you know, up by thirty against the Giants, Like they are pedals to the metal all
the way through here. They can stumble and still get to thirty one very comfortable, comfortably against this Texans team. So give me Rams over thirty and a half. And it's a market. If you're a listener and you're really kind of sides and totals, look into team totals a little bit more. You know, watch a couple of games, get an understanding of where you think that line should be, and then wait for some line movement you can you can jump on some key numbers.
That's interesting because I'll be honest, I don't bet a lot of just team totals. I occasionally do, but for the most part. But to you, oh, it sounds like what you're saying is like that is the single most inefficient part of the betting market right now for NFL games, right, yeah.
I mean outside of player props. Right, So, player props we have, you know, they are speculative. We don't even know, like you can get a bad line, and we don't necessarily know that.
You got a bad line.
You might have got the worst line, but it doesn't mean that it's an efficient line. The market's so inefficient to begin with. But yeah, as far as like your traditional market stand, I definitely think that it is a buying opportunity because they don't necessarily think of it and don't move it by itself. It's not a separate market. It kind of moves with the two main markets.
All right. I like it rams team total over thirty and a half. Okay, I'll try the on it. I love it all right. So I've got a couple over unders. I'm gonna leave them. They're both unders, which makes me want to vomit right now because I just it's horrible to be rooting for people not to score. So I'm gonna go with the spread bet, and my guess is going to be a little surprising because I don't this doesn't strike me as a line or a game necessarily
that anybody wants to target. But I'm going to take the Steelers getting three and a half against the So when you give me Mike Tomlin generally speaking as an underdog, I am automatically intrigued, right like I'm automatically okay, all right, you're gonna get the guys up for this. When you give me him as a road underdog, then I'm really interested in it because I think that's sort of the quote unquote Mike Toblin spot. Now, the obvious stuff here is that the Browns have a ton of question marks
going on right now. We don't know who's going to play quarterback in my Bigger Mayfield might be case Keenum. We don't know if Odell Beckham Junior is going to be playing in this game. We don't necessarily even know that Jarvis Landry is going to play in this game, although it is trending in that direction. And I know we got excited because you know, the spread was dropping with all the injuries, and they come out and they
beat the Broncos. But that's a bad Broncos team who's missing Von Miller for most of the game and whose linebacker group is terrible that you beat by three points. So this, to me strikes me as just a bad matchup for the Pittsburgh offense, no matter what. For the I'm sorry for the Browns offense, no matter what. Pittsburgh is ninth in defensive DVOA. They're good against both the run and the pass, and they're one of the tops in the league at pressure rate and especially getting pressure
despite not blitzing a ton. And I really think that that is the key here when you want to slow down either Baker Mayfield is not great under pressure or case Schemham, who historically has not been very good under pressure.
So I think defensively here, I really think that they're going to be able to stack the box against Nick Chubb, who should return here, and still be able to get pressure on Baker Mayfield, So I don't expect much to go right for Cleveland offensively on the other side the ball, I mean, the Steelers are coming off the buy, their offensive lines getting a little better. Now they're gelling, the scheme changed a little bit, Naji Harris coming into his own.
I know Cleveland's good against the run, but again Najie Harris has been heavily involved. Ben Roethlisberger looks a little better, looks a little healthier. Chase Claypole was getting healthier as well. Browns or midle of the pack defensively in Dvoa. But they're twenty thirty against the pass. So I do think that the Steelers are going to be able to go here. I think the Steelers actually win this game out right.
But if you're giving me the hook in particular over three and a half, that's what I'm going to take. So I told you before we started recording, Ryan that you should give your honest assess of any pick I make, and if you want to fade it, you can fade. If you want to follow it, follow it. What's your assessment of this one?
I think the last piece of advice was really sharp. If take the money line, so if you really like Pittsburgh here, especially when we're you know, looking at these these dogs under six, under seven. We've seen an outrageous clip this year where those teams are actually just winning out right. So like you're gonna get a like plus one sixty here or something like that, Like just take that, and you know, it's very rare that you're gonna have this fall within that three window and not have Pittsburgh
win outright as well. This is a toss up to me, Like I this has happened two years in a row now where Pittsburgh is on like the wrong side of the rest advantage of a bye. They're coming off a bye, but like the Browns have the mini by because.
Of the Saturday night game.
Yes, it is very.
Telling that the line is still on the board despite not knowing who's on the quarterback. That kind of speaks to like, it's not necessarily a massive downgrade from from Baker to case Keenum. Yeah, I mean, I think he made some good points. It's gonna be tough slutting. I think for now, I think you know, this is again a low total, So I would lean under, would probably be my most convicted lean in this scheme. But even that I hold very very loosely.
So you've selling many unders, man, too many unders, and I can't go after it again. Yeah, so it might be something where I mean, maybe it's an in game a same game parla there where you tease their same game teaser where you tease up the Steelers to tease up the total and go under. Yeah, you're dead on it's plus one sixty on the money line. I do
think that it's it's a point. I don't make that enough, by the way, So I'm glad that you're kind of harping on it, which is if you are taking, you know, a dog here within like six points whatever it is, but a dog that's not outrageous, always sprinkle on the money line regardless of it, because you're right, they have been hitting it at a clip. But also it's it's close enough there where there's almost certainly value. All right, that's my number one. Go ahead with your number two.
Pick what do you got?
I like it.
This is a square I get a couple of square sides for the listeners today. I feel like they're gonna be public lines, but I feel like there's a reason that they're to be public lines, and maybe they get steamed. Now you can get a little bit of the best of the number, they might get a little bit more expensive as the weekend approaches. Give me Tampa Bay minus five. I'm not sure if what the consensus lying there is at betting pros currently.
Five and a half.
Between five, five and a half, it bounce it back.
Yeah, so anywhere under six.
We're also dealing with some new key, you know, key numbers in this new NFL two where six is becoming as common as seven.
So that's interesting.
Yeah, I feel like there's a little bit of dan I'm not sure if you're a curb your enthusiasm fan, there's a little bit of like spite store stuff going on here with Tampa Bay. You know Larry built, you know, and ran a coffee shop out of spite with Mocha Joe. I think that there's a little bit of that vibe going on with Tampa Bay this year. It happened last week too, So it was the Thursday night game against Philly, and you know.
Everyone's still leaving. The game's barely over right.
That's the everyone's still sweating, and Levante David sits down at the desk with the NFL Network guys, and it is talking about how stoked the Boys are to get to Chicago because they were in barrass last year and it was like Tom Brady went down as a game and they wanted to make a statement against the Bears. Last week. I loved them last week. I got a minus ten. You could not have said that number too
high for me. And I think that this is another team where like these two teams played three times last year, they meant the playoffs as well as obviously the two divisional matchups, and the Saints stuck it to him once. They beat him twice, obviously the season opener, but like that game in Tampa, like they rolled them, And I think that this is something that like you know, Brady looks for these little edges and can galvanize the locker room.
And I think that they want to kind of remind the Saints that we don't want you in the playoffs. This is our division, and they go out here and make a statement and take care of business. This becomes really their division here, you know, cruising the rest of the way, even though we're only in week nine or week eight at this point. So like I think Tampa makes a statement anything under six. I love laying the points here. I don't know what to make of the Saints,
so I don't think they're very good. I think the defense is good, but like, offensively, they're twenty ninth in yards per drive. I think they are thirtieth in points per drive. No, but they're thirtieth in yards per drive. But they're first in points per red zone appearance and they're second in touchdowns per red zone appearance. That is massively unsustainable. Like their offense is not good. Come off the by go to Seattle and hang thirteen. That's not
good enough against Tampa Bay. I know that there was weather conditions, but like, I think the offense is not good, and I think that they're actually worse than what we've seen so far. So give me the Bucks minus five.
Yeah, I think the Saint Tomas is pretty terrible actually when you look under the hood, and I don't hate it, but I am wondering though about it. This is interesting. So Brady is a unique animal, but you don't think that the playoff win sort of avengers that you think in his mind and in the Bucks mind, they're still like, no, not good enough, not good enough. After okay, because that was what did they win thirty eight.
Y they handled pretty well.
Yeah, that game even was was a late like that was actually in there was a late fumble in the third quarter. I think it was Jared Cook fumble in like in the red zone. You know, they score there, they go up ten. That's a totally different game in the fourth quarter, and you know, we don't know what happens with the Bucks moving forward, right, so like that changes everything. So I think they'd love to absolutely curb
stomp them here in a public way. The only thing that makes me a little nervous I Will Winson the CBS on he highlighted that this is going to be Halloween in New Orleans, and that's you know, again if going to get into some narratives like that would scare me a little bit. But again, I think that there's not enough unless those people are all going on the field to play defense.
I still like the Bucks.
Yeah, I hadn't even thought about that, but it makes me feel a little better about my second pick, which is in the same game, which again my guess is you might be on the other side of this one if you were forced to take a side which you are not. Of course, that's actually going to be the under in this same game, which is right now at fifty. It's bouncing back and forth. It was fifteen and a half at our sponsor bet MGM, so fifteen and a
half I like it better. But obviously, you know, if it's under fifty one whatever, does make that much of a difference. But look, speaking of the Saints, and again I think we know exactly what their philosophy is right now, right we are going to lean on our defense, which as you mentioned, is very good. I like it as well a lot. They're going to play slow, They're going to play conservatively. They don't want to let Jamis do them in right by going for it and no risk
at no biscuit, not anymore or not here anymore. They are twenty eighth in neutral situation pace of play. They run the ball fifty three percent of the time. That is by far the most in the NFL this year. Now they add mark ingram. I mean, not that it really matters, but that probably just says, hey, by the way, we want to even run the ball even more if we can. And of course you've got the Bucks defense
which is great against the runs. So maybe not quite as much against pass catching running backs, but still very good. But the bottom line is there's going to be a lot of running in this game, at least from the Saints side. They want to probably they don't want to get into a shootout, of course, because of Brady. They want to bleed the clock as much as possible, relying on that defense, which is really good third overall in
defensive DVOA. And now with the Bucks, Yeah, I mean, Brady is great and has a chip on the shoulder overall, I will I'll take your word for it even here that he still is mad about that even though he knocked them out of the playoffs, which is definitely possible. Uh, they're just not you know, they're not gonna have Antonio Brown here. I assume given that he was spotted on with a crutch and given Bruce Arian statements, they probably
will get Gronk back. But you know, Marshall Latimore has a history of just taking Mike Evans for the most part, just right out of these games. And the Saints don't have a ton of sacks, but they get enough pressure twenty you know, more than twenty six percent pressure rate. That's six best in the League. So again these monstrous totals. Man, like we we just like fifty points right now is like nothing, right, we just think about it's like, oh
it's fifty points. It doesn't jar you anymore. You're you got totals in fifty seven, right or you know, fifty six and a half. But that's a big that's a big total in a divisional game where I think that both have good defenses, the clock is gonna be running a lot. So I do think the Bucks win. I do think the Bucks cover this game. But I do not see a ton of scoring here from the Saints. I don't see a massive output from the Bucks either.
I think the Bucks win. I think the Bucks cover, but I will take the under here on fifty or fifty and a half where you can get it.
Yeah, I like that play too, Dan, I think that there are a lot of outs there.
Like you highlighted, we know that the Mike Evans thing is real, like those two dudes will battle. He has not had some great games and even like you mentioned, like Kamara that we know they want to run the ball.
It's smart to throw him the ball.
But in that second matchup last year, they held him to six catches I think five catches for nine yards, So like, yep, they're prepared for it. They're getting a little bit healthier on defense, not necessarily in the secondary per se, but at the linebacker position, some guys up front. So yeah, you can sell me on that under here in a big, big way, just shortened the Saints.
Really, yes, correct, it's a lot on the Saints, for sure. I do not want to be watching this game and have an under and a Tom Brady like angry game, which now you have convinced me is probably gonna happen.
But that's every way I'm going to go back to it, Dan, So if you can, you're convicted on you like the bucks as well because it's spread and you like the under in the game. It's this really comes down to shoring the Saints team total. So like this is a you don't have to be in bed with Tom Brady doing anything, Okay, you just take a Saints team total under and then tom Brady can go off and you're still safe.
Perfect. I love it. I will do it. What's your third bet? Go ahead?
Third bet? Another square one.
The most public team I think in the entire league is the Dallas Cowboys. They are obviously rolling right now and they have not not covered at any point so far this year, and I like them. I think anywhere below three have seen two two and a half's out there. There's I think even a one and a half.
There's a one and a half the consensus actually one a half and my book again, I'm in New Hampshire the DraftKings. It's one and a half right now. It's been dropping.
Yeah, so I absolutely love that.
I think there is a I don't want to simplify the handicap here, but I think that there is just a massive trenches battle here that goes one way.
Really.
Outside of the Tampa game in Week one, Dallas is lean pretty run heavy this year right that was very game centric where they came out and they just chuck the ball over the field. They've been leaning on the dynamic offensive line. It's finally healthy and is running really well. They're first an offensive line adjusted lineyards per Football Outsiders. Defensively Minnesota thirty seconds and adjusted lineyards. Sometimes it's just
that simple. I think they're going to be able to run at will really put Minnesota in a spot where they have to play catch up a little bit Minnesota can do that. But I also think that there's going to be enough here in the passing game on Dallas a's side where when they decide to turn it on, they're going to be fine. There's some injuries in the secondary for Minnesota that they think are going to be hard for them to overcome. And again I think that they have their way here. I think this is a
nice live bet on the over if that happens. If Dallas gets up big and we force you know, Mike Zimmer to take the car out of the garage a little bit and start to throw the ball, they can do that with success. But I think they're going to have a really hard time slowing down Dallas.
Okay, so I have two questions really here for it. Number One, when I saw this we do you know look ahead line sort of on Monday and opening reaction to it, it was two and a half and I was very much like, I don't understand this line. Why why would you not pound Dallas right now? Like this seems very obvious. I know they're on the road, I know it's a primetime game or whatever, but I mean, this just doesn't seem correct. The guy I did it with Matt Parraul didn't have that same reaction, so I
was surprised there. My wonder is if the reason that was dropping is because of the Dak Prescott health situation, because like I think we all just sort of expected the way he's got the bye week, Like everything says the calf injury is minimal, but all the word out of Cowboys Camp is very much like, oh, things are trending, things are trending in the right direction. Is there any concern for you if you're a better and people are listening to this on a Thursday when we're recording it,
do you wait and just see Prescott's health? I mean, does that concern you at all?
No? But I think you can wait. So I think two things.
I'm not concerned, but I think waiting is fine because if you're you know, we're still under the three and that's really all that matters in this spot. Like I do, I'm not super concerned about a one versus a two and a half. I'm so rare that it's going to fall on two or something like that. So yeah, I think you can absolutely wait. Until you start to see more practice reports, you start to feel a little bit
more convicted on a Friday afternoon. I think that is absolutely why it is not at three currently.
Yeah, both team's.
Coming off a bye, so that's you know, not even a rest advantage for Minnesota at home like that kind of that stinks. Typically you like to have those spots. So yeah, I think that's absolutely why. But I'm fine waiting and I think you're still gonna be able to get under three.
Yeah, because again when it was two and a half, it was something where I was like, I want to hit it now because I you know, I don't know, But then it was dropping and I again I assume it's just because of big questions on Prescott's health and again everything that comes out of it of Cowboys campus, Like, yeah, I expect to play, but you know, I you know, I don't want to hear expect to play like I want to be like, I'm totally fine, I'm ready to go.
So maybe that's it. But certainly if Prescott plays, I'm absolutely on that side. And I said it when we did it on Monday. I think that's the right side. I'm surprised that the line came out under three, just with how much of a public side the Cowboys always are, but I'm with you for sure. I'm going back to a total, of course, and it's gonna be one that. On Monday, Matt Again, who he did the podcast with,
was like, pound the over, pound the over. My initial reaction was, yeah, all right, I mean, I think the over, like you go back historically it probably hits, but I actually like the under on this game. It's the Titans and the Colts, which is at fifty one right now. We've got the two elite running backs, of course, and both teams just pound the ball into the ground when they can John Taylor and Derrick Henry. That means that
the clock is gonna move. Tennessee runs forty eight percent of the time, that is fourth most in the league. Indianapolis runs forty five percent of time. That is the eighth most in the league. So Indianapolis, though has an elite run defense. They are number one in defensive DVA against the run, and they are the slowest team in the NFL in terms of neutral situation pace of play
they ranked last. Tennessee ranks twenty third. These are both two teams that are in no hurry to get things going, that are more than willing to milk the clock rely in the run game, and again, Indianapolis has a great run defense, so I think that's going to cause Tennessee to not necessarily be able to staying these drives or anything like that where they're gonna, you know, result in touchdowns. It's a divisional game they've already met. Obviously, it was
a little different before because Wentz wasn't healthy. The offensive line is getting a little better here for the Colts. I just think this strikes me as a more conservative sort of grind it out, tough game. You've got the Colts who need the win, right they this is their last chance here to get the division. They have bounced back very nicely from that loss against the Ravens, but they need this one because they lost already to the Titans.
So there's gonna be two unders here For me on a Sunday, I'm going to be miserable watching the games. But to me, I don't know. Man. When I first looked at it, I understood like why the over might have been the play, And to be fair, I think the total opened up at forty nine or forty nine and a half. Now at fifty one, I'm gonna take the under I.
Had the same reaction.
So when I first saw it, I was like, oh, that feels like it feels like an overplay.
Yep.
But the more I dug into it, you know, I didn't click the button already. I waited a little bit so and then the more I dug into it, and I think I came the same realization that you did. Is I just feel that there are a lot of outs for this to be slow.
Yep.
I think there's a little bit of unsustainable efficiency on both sides. Offensively, you talked about how there's a you know, run funnel on the Colt side, knowing that the Titans want to lean run heavy. Yeah, I'm a little concerned against second time on the division. We know historically those end up being a little bit lower scoring as well, So there's a lot working in your favor here on the other.
Yeah, I really I probably would have put the Bucks last, like in terms of my favorite sort of picks, but I wanted to get him in there because you had just talked about the Bucks. I feel a little more confident in this one than I even do the Bucks. So let's recap very quickly. Then let's quickly just run through the remaining spreads and then we can get you out of here get back to making all your correct picks.
You are taking the Bucks laying five and a half to the Saints, the Cowboys laying one and a half to the Vikings, and the Rams team total over thirty and a half. And I love all the team total stuff that you gave. It's really great information. I'm taking the Steelers getting three and a half against the Browns. I am taking the Bucks and the Saints under fifty or fifty and a half, especially if can get that,
and the Titans and the Colts under fifty one. All Right, I'm not gonna ask you about tonight because by the time people listening to this, the game has probably already happened. I don't want to have you on record, all right, I really want your opinion on the Bengals laying ten and a half in New Jersey against the Jets.
Yeah, this is a hard thing too.
I do you know a free look Ahead lines article every week at four for four. This this next week nine is in the hopper, should be out very soon. This is three and a half and again markets, So it's really hard to sometimes be like you know this is we're dying here now. I don't think that the Mike White Zach Wilson things worth seven points, but yeah, ten and a half is tough. This is also this is the third straight road game for the Bengals, right. Don't see it very often. It only happens a couple
times a year. It happens the Colts already this year. Those things don't go really well typically, So like, ten and a half is too much, it's a stay away from me. That doesn't mean I have any conviction on the Jets side, but I can't take I can't lay the ten and a half on the Bengals.
I think it's very clear that when you look at everything and the trends and everything that really goes into the fact that the line has moved this much means oh God, of course you take the Jets. But I cannot possibly take the Jets. Like there's no way. I did get in on the Bengals at nine and a half when it first sort of moved, because I was just like, oh, come on, Mike, I'm a Jets fan. I'm willing to admit that I was not prepared to see Mike White in a game, but I just at
this point, it's just too high. But I understand that, like the sharp side is, there's so much value on the Jets. Come on, you gotta take the Jets. Can't do it, definitely can't do it no matter how high it gets. I'm just stayed away.
But that's the question, right, what's the number gonna be?
Oh, there's no number. I'm not kidding, like I get it, Like you want to like twenty one and playff They're like, well, but for the most part, no, I don't want to do it. I do because I don't have any faith in what I am going to see from a full week of preparing. Is Michael Carter gonna get eighteen targets here? You know, out of the running back position. You know who the heck knows at this point. So I'm staying
far away. I'm interested actually in this one. I backed the Eagles so many times this year, and sometimes it's been good. I've gotten the nonber like against the Bucks. I meant, you know, I got the number right and everything like that. The Lions are at home against the Eagles. The Lions are getting three and a half.
This might be the spot that the Lions get off the Schneid. Yeah, yeah, three and a half is a nice number.
Two.
So again, we're is the reason that this is the first time the Eagles are favored all year. You know, Jalen hurts his fun in our fantasy games. Yeah, but like you know, in the fourth quarter, and like he does it every single time every time. He'll probably do it again this week because I don't think we're going to have a game script where, like, you know, he's not going to be needed. This is definitely Lions or nothing for me. I don't have a ton of conviction
in it. But a lot of smart people that I talk to and do this with also feel that the Lions are the play. So maybe, uh, you know, later today or no later than tomorrow afternoon. I probably take it because I think that three, I think that hook might go away.
Yeah, if we did four bets on the show, then the fourth bet would have been the Lions. Definitely on this one. I think that look, they fight man like, but you know, they fight no matter what, and the Eagles are not good enough to put this game away in my opinion, like they just are not offensively good enough to put it away. I think the lines hang around here this will be something where I will sprinkle on the money line as well, but I will definitely
take them getting three and a half. My personal plays not the official here. The Bills are laying fourteen at home against the Miami Dolphins.
And so this is one of the only times, well I don't typically do this.
I bet this in the preseason. I bet this.
Wow.
In Week five, I got the Bills minus seven. Dan, there's a massive, massive rest advantage here. This is so the Dolphins elected to not have the post London by right. Bizarre, but I but whatever, Like they thought they were gonna be contenders, they wanted a late season by They come home and play the Falcons off of bye.
Not great.
Now they go to Buffalo in the division, Buffalo fresh off of bye, who is absolutely destroy them the last two like ninety one to twenty six in the last two meetings.
Destroyed.
And I think that there is just what do the Dolphins do well? They do nothing well. And I think that the Bills don't like how they went into the buy.
You know that there was a game that they should have won in Tennessee.
Josh Allen was talking about how maybe we just get it right and we do what we did last year after the buye, which is not lose again until they get to the playoffs. So I think that they are on cruise control here. I mean, fourteen is hard.
I can't take it.
I got a couple of sevens, but like, I'm not touching Miami here whatsoever.
Yeah, that's awesome that you have some sevens. But all right, So, like fandal is still thirteen and a half. Do you care that it's below two touchdowns or yea? Yeah, okay, hey, when you're there, that's fine. How about the forty nine ers visiting the Bears. The forty nine ers are now laying four points in our contents is line?
Yeah? This is gross. The Chicago thing is weird.
You know. I want to be bullish on Justin Field's long term, but there's not a lot to be autimistic about. Again, it is a JV offensive line. It's a stay away from me. Have no interest in this game whatsoever. I would lean the Niners if you had to.
Yeah, I agree, I think the Niners are probably the right side. I doubt I will have much action on this game. It's just I don't see how you can look at Justin fields right now and feel comfortable backing him whatsoever. He again, like you, no long term sort of proclamations on what the kid's future is going to be like, without question, but as of this moment, as of right now, especially with that offensive line, he's just overmatched and he's not making decisions quickly enough and he's
just getting overwhelmed. So I would go with the Niners if I had to by it again, like you, it's a game I'm going to stay away from, as is the next one, which is the Falcons at home against the Panthers, which the Falcons laying three.
Yeah, another one that's kind of gross. This one moved in a big way in the pre market. It was the other way. It was minus two and a half on the Panther side, So with five points of movements doesn't make any sense to me. There's kind of this narrative this week that like the Falcons are figuring it out. They barely won in London against the Jets. They blew a thirteen fourth quarter lead against Miami and needed a
lot field wal to hold on. Like, no, you know, and I don't know what to make of the Sam Donald thing. So, like the talent is there turns out maybe Christian McCaffrey matters.
J C.
Horn might matter even though we lose them for a handful of games. So stay away from me. But you're gonna, you know, give me some points in Carolina. I would lean that way if we maybe get a three, but no conviction in the Falcons whatsoever.
Yeah, and I mean they should get a little healthier here, right or you know, Gilmour should probably play in this game. I assume, you know, for his first game. But regardless, Yeah, there's clearly value on the Panthers, right Like, there's no way that the Falcon should be favored here by three points. But I can't do it, like I can't with Sam Donald with the way he is playing right now. It's just a total stay away from me. We talked about the total in this game, but I'm interested in your
feelings on the side. The Colts right now are laying one and a half to the Titans in Indianapolis.
Yeah, I lean the Titans. I think my preferred way. I don't know I've been shorting the Colts. I just don't believe in them. I want to continue to probably do that. I still don't think the Titans are very good either that secondary is brodhere. I don't know how they did that last week, Like we're looking at like Greg Moulton and his name is now officially Jack Rabbits, Like that is unbelievable to me, Like why is it
an underreported story? He changed genorous to jack Rabbit and we're all just like that's fine, that's yeah, people.
Do that all the time, like it's fine, okay, like Jack Rabbit. So like Jack Rabbit is gonna hold it down. Yeah, I don't believe in either of these teams. It would be Titans.
But again, I feel like there's a little bit of overreaction to how they played of late. But I don't think we need to like underrate how well they played against Buffalo in Kansas City.
Yeah, no, I I think if I'm forced to go on one side and this is a stay away for me, I think I might lean the Colts just because I think, you know, at home, at some point, the Titans have to be due for a letdown at this right that huge win against Buffalo, the huge win against Kansas City, I'm gonna put that more on Kansas City as opposed to the strength of the Titans. Second, there were here. Sure, I think maybe everybody just takes away the explosive play
and that's it. But I think i'd probably lean the Colts. But it's a total stay away from me. So I'm glad at least you don't have conviction either with it. We know you're going with the team total. Did you have a side with the Texans? Getting fourteen and a half from the Rams just.
Goes back to our Jets conversation, Dan, what what's the number on the Texans?
And there is no there is no number.
On the Texans, buddy, Like this is Rams all day. You know, I like to have under fourteen and a half. But like, there's just there's absolutely nothing here that you know. If you have a Texans ticket, just do do not watch the game. Yeah, Pumpkin Patch, you know, take your kids trigger treating, Like, do not watch that one.
I mean to Rod Taylor might be back. Yeah, hell but I've got nothing. Yeah, every book is fourteen and a half by the way, from what I love, it's total content. So there is no there's no value anywhere you can go. We talked all right about the Steelers and the Browns. How about the Seahawks laying three and a half to the Jaguars in Seattle.
I want to back the Jaguars, especially if you can get.
A three and a half.
Yeah, that's where it is everywhere.
Yeah, so like that's a little interesting to me. I know it was bouncing back and forth earlier today and there's.
Oh yeah the Jews threes. Yeah, there are a couple of threes out there, but the overwhelming majority of books right now are at three and a half.
Yeah. I mean again, coming off the by, it's a long travel, But again I don't I feel like Pete Carroll wants to It's like the low level Saints perfect match of last week, Like he wants to get the game over as quick as possible.
We want to.
Hide Gino, but they don't have the defense that the Saints have where they can try to hide Jamis. So again I'm having to buy into hopefully that rookie after the bye maybe start to take a leap forward. They have a really strong run game. The offensive lines played really well. If they could stay in a neutral gamescript and run for a little bit longer than they've been able to, I think that they can keep it close.
So if I'm gonna get a hook I kind of like the Jags.
If there was a side that I had to take, it would be the Jags with the hook. I just I can't, you know, backing Urban Meyer is something where it's just like I don't I mean. And again, I had a couple of buddies who were like, do it in London against Miami and I was like, there's no way I will do it. But turned out to be the right side. Going into Seattle for the rookie quarterbacks still makes me a little nervous. But if there were
a side, that is where I would go. What about the Chargers laying five to the Pats here in Los Angeles.
Yeah, this is one of my favorite games of the league. It's gonna be really interesting. We know that like Brandon Staley refuses to play seven even six guys in the box. They run in it by far the lowest rate in the league. They invite you to run, They want to force you in the third downs and hopefully you can make some mistakes there. New England very very willing to take whatever you're going to give them. They are fine with grinding it down, taking short intermediate passes and handing the ball
to Damien Harris over and over again. So I think Harris has a nice day. I think Tunter Henry in a revenge spot has a nice day. Yeah, it's been really bad at defending the tight end position all year. I think we've seen some public money come in on New England here because it started to move from six down to even four and a half. Today we're getting kind of away from it. I would like to have in New England at six, but I would lean that way.
Yeah, I agree. Yeah, there are some four and a halfs out there. You're right at FanDuel in particular, I'm noticing is there. But yeah, I lean the Pats. I'm probably not gonna bet it right now, like I would like it to go back up, but if you forced me to pick a side right now, I would probably take the Patriots at plus five. I think they match up well here, and I agree we probably could talk about some player props later in the week here about what we're going to see in this game. So I
am with you there. We already talked about the Bucks in the Saints. How about Washington visiting Denver with the Broncos laying three.
Yeah, you came into the year thinking that these are two of the best defensive teams in the league, and now they're like, you know, bottom third and basically epa DVA any important metric that you would want. Lots of injuries on both sides. I think that Washington is poor the defensive play. They still get a decent amount of pressure, and Denver's allowed a craptunder pressure on Teddy, who did not look very healthy. Now I know we've had ten
days to recover. We're gonna get Jerry Judy backs. There's some things working in their faith. But like, I don't know, I think Washington's a little live and frisky here.
I would lean that way.
It's not a convicted play for me, But I think I liked the over here as well. But that's actually got pushed a little bit. It was like forty two and a half forty three all day yesterday. Now we're kind of on the wrong side of a key number at forty four and a half everywhere. But yeah, I mean I think Washington's actually live.
Yeah, it is forty four and a half pretty consistently there, So that makes it a little tougher. And I have lived early in the season, least on the Broncos unders for sure. I agree with you, though I major concerns about Denver, even with Judy coming back, who I love Bridgewater. You're right, A doesn't look healthy if you get pressure on him, which, as you mentioned, as disappointing as the
Washington defense has been, they still get pressure. Bridgewater looks very nervous in the pocket, like his feet are just dancing the entire time. He does not want to get rid of the ball. So I agree with you. I think Washington can come up here actually steal this game overall. So certainly a sprinkle on the money line if you want to go that way, but getting three, I will take it. Last game Monday night football spreads are actually all over the place, and this one's fun to look at.
Contentsus lines. I see nines, I see tens. The consensus right now is nine and a half because that's the majority of books, but there are tens chiefs laying let's say nine and a half here to the Giants.
It's gonna happen eventually, right, They're gonna get it together.
They have to, right, I mean they don't have to, but they have to.
And the Giants aren't the team that's going to trip them up.
But I didn't think the Titans are gonna be the team that trip them up, right, So like we're playing wackable here, but continue to bet on Patrick Mahomes I think is the right way to do it. Shorting Daniel Jones in primetime on the road I think is probably a plus D play.
You gotta do it. You gotta do it, man, you gotta fire on it like this. You're right, this has to be the spot. This has to be for everything that we don't even know is healthy for the Giants right now on offense. Maybe they all are. I don't really care. I just this has to be after last week. This has to be the bounced back spot for sure for Kansas City in Arrowhead on a Monday night, and oh god, it's gotta be, and especially with it being under under ten as it is in my book as
the consensus line. I will take it. Ryan, you were a joy to have today. We don't talk enough. It was great talking to you. You do fantastic work. As I've said, remind everybody where they can find it.
Thanks Buddy podcast twice a week, Move the Line. We have a game by game preview which is available currently in any of your podcast feeds. We do that on Wednesday nights on our YouTube page. It comes out in podcast form on Thursday mornings, and then on Friday evenings we have a prop drop show where we focus just on player props that you can actually bet in the moment, so we're not giving you any stale lines. It is basically half of it is us giving the picks. The
second half is very interactive. We want to take any of the bets that you're looking to get into. You can kind of bounce numbers off of us. We want to kind of make that very active and it's been great so far. We get all the contents over at four for four. A lot of great stuff coming out in the betting space in the next calendar year.
He is Ryan Noonan. He is doing great things over there. Make sure you follow him at ry that's our Why Noonon over on Twitter. Enjoy your football, everybody. We'll be back again on Monday, breaking down an early look at the Week nine NFL lines. H