It's time to place your bets. Welcome in, everybody to Betting Pros. It's me Joey pa Joe Pisapia, and already it's time to look ahead to Week seven in the NFL. Week six had some wacky moments, certainly some upsets. Certainly some people who are not in the good graces with their respective teams as of this point. But luckily that's not the case here. I love my team. I've got Pat Fitzmorris, I've got Matthew Friedman, I've got the crew
to break it all down. Certainly, last week we made some money on the early look ahead, and hopefully we could do that again with my boys today. And don't forget all of our great content going on here over at Bettingpros dot com, so check that out, check out the prop bet cheat sheet, and obviously everything here we do is sponsored by BETTMGM, the King of sports books. Everybody knows that maybe I'll put on the crown later, we'll see how the show goes. But Pat Fitzmorris, Matthew Friedman,
let's just jump in head first. Let's go right into the pool and look ahead at Thursday night football, because goodness, knows. We need a better Thursday night football game. It can't get worse. That's what I told myself last Thursday, and I don't know if I was right or wrong. New Orleans Arizona. That's what we have this week. Arizona is two point favorites at home. The Saints continue to scuffle. Both teams are two and four. The number is forty five.
If you like New Orleans on the money line, it's plus one twelve. So Pat Fitzmorris, Thursday night has not been great for football. Let's just leave it at that. This game right here, is it great for a betting standpoint when you're looking ahead.
It could be, And it could be great from a Twitter standpoint, getting to criticize Cliff Kingsbury all night and the watch the barbs flying on Twitter. So you know, that's the great thing about Thursday night games, Joe, even if the football is not good, Twitter is a fun place during a bad Thursday night game. So we could get that again this week. And I kind of like the Saints as a dog here. I mean like Arizona has just been such an underachiever. The offense is just
it's stuck in the mud. There have been times where they get into the second half and Kyler is basically drawing up plays in the dirt and it works. Like the comeback victory against the Raiders. That's as good as the offense has looked all year, and it was total school yard football, like the scripted stuff early on with Cliff not working. It'll be interesting to see how the
return of DeAndre Hopkins this week changes the dynamic. But they did lose Hollywood Brown to what looks like it's going to be a multi week foot injury.
The Saints have been pretty scrappy.
We still don't know what is going on with them at quarterback, whether Jamis Winston is going to be back in Week seven, but they've been good offensively with Andy Dalton at quarterback the last few weeks, and really they haven't played a bad game since that Week two toast stubbing against the Panthers. So I like this plucky Saints team that's reasonably respectable on both sides of the ball against a Cardinals team that kind of isn't respectable on either side of the ball.
I just think this game is sort of mispriced.
Yeah, I kind of feel the same way Friedman. I know there's some moving pieces now in this game. We mentioned some of the injuries there, the return of DeAndre Hopkins, but to me, it's the money lines, the plus one twelve that really peaks my fancy here because I look at that and I say there's opportunity. I think the Saints are just a better team, a better roster, but again still unknown a quarterback for them as well as we head into the short week game.
Yeah.
So I have a couple of pieces on betting pros that look at how money line underdogs do versus underdogs against the spread, and historically at leads, like for the past twenty years or so, if you've liked a team an underdog on the spread, it's been a little more profitable actually just to bet them on the money line. So yeah, I think the instinct is right there. And I'm very much on your side here, you know, fits
and I on the same side. So just kiss of death, just guaranteed we're gonna lose, car Yeah, you know.
We lost.
We lost last Thursday night game, you know with the Bears, and you know, but I do like the Saints on this side here. Cliff Kingsbury is like a zigzag type of coach where he's been historically very bad in particular situations. Bad at home, bad is a favorite, and as a home favorite four and eleven against the spread, like just you know, just dunk on him anytime he's at home, and Vegas is like, you know what, this guy should
be favored. So I am very much on the Saints in the spot, I will say, though the line has moved to I believe one and a half, you could get it two and a half in the look ahead and when it opened at one and a half, like that kind of.
Is where I think it should be.
But if I'm still going to be betting on Thursday night football and lots of people want to do that because it's fun, I would be betting on the Saints. That said, I feel like the real winners of Thursday night Football have been everyone who hates Jeff Bezos, which it feels like a lot of people. So the idea of him paying billions of dollars to have Thursday night football is funny.
And then the people who haven't watched the game shout out me.
I haven't watched Thursday night Football in the past two Thursdays, and I felt great about that.
Decision.
I gotta be honest with you. I watched about like a quarter and a half of both and fell asleep, and I definitely was better off for the sleep, I can tell you that much. Yeah, back ahead.
People who work on Thursday nights are the real winners. They're being productive and not watching these games. Kudos to them.
I will say that the crew that they have their reactions, you know, if it's Patrick and Sherman, all those guys, that has been entertaining. So I mean, maybe they should just do like the Manning Cast where they let these guys talk in real time and comment about the terrible football going on. Now that's a broadcast I think everybody could get into. Give them a couple of years and see what really happens. Let's get to the next game.
Second one. I I lied.
I have this as a pick them, so I still think there's there's value at this number here.
All right, Well, try not to lie to me the rest of the show. All right, Let's go to the next thing here Cleveland at Baltimore Hall, Baltimore. They are letting teams back in every single game here and it is not going well for the Baltimore Ravens. Not the bleeding against the Cleveland Browns coming off of a butt blubbing by the Patriots and their defense. The Cleveland Browns are heading into Baltimore at six and a half point underdogs.
Forty six and a half is the number plus two ten if you like the Cleveland Browns on the money line, Freedman, look, Baltimore at home should always be a very strong investment. However, they have struggled at home this year. They did get right last game at home, but then they go on the road to the Giants and lay another egg. So what do you make of the Baltimore Ravens the six and a half? Is there any way you feel comfortable with this number?
Yeah, I would grab it before it gets to seven because I think it's going in that direction. And it was six earlier, so we are already moving in that way. And you know, I'm a man of few beliefs, but one of the things I do believe in is betting against Kevin Stefanski in Division. He's two and eleven against the spread in division, just absolutely horrible against teams who know him, and zero to four against the spread against
the Ravens. Specifically, I don't have a lot of faith in what's happening with their their offense.
So yeah, I'm going to be on the Ravens here.
Pat Are you a man of any beliefs when it comes to this game?
Yeah, I'm totally with Friedman. I was stunned when I saw that this was under the key number of seven and grabbed it immediately, like I have this as Ravens seven and a half and the Ravens are one of the teams as a better that I respect the most in the NFL, and it's been really weird to see them lose some of these games the way they have and I'm licking my wounds after betting on them this
past week against the Giants. But like at home, their home field advantage means more than some other home field advantages in the NFL, without question, But like they're going against a Cleveland Browns defense that's just completely broken. The Browns gave up four hundred and forty rushing yards in Week four and Week five combined. Then yesterday they sort of get their running game run defense fixed. They did give up three touchdown, but they generally held their own
against Romandre Stevenson and the Patriots. But they let Bailey Zappi throw for over three hundred yards an average.
Over Nili Zappi disparaged on this program.
Yeah, I mean a third stringer, and he averaged nine point one yards per pass attempt against the Browns who had just gotten Greedy Williams back at cornerback. So apparently Greedy did not fix anything in the secondary.
This Browns defense is just terrible.
You know, the Ravens can hurt you in a lot of different ways offensively, and I think they're going to hurt the Browns badly in Baltimore next Sunday.
Big time. Bailey Zappi will talk about him a little later in the show Monday Night Football, Let's Go Tampa Carolina. Carolina did not circle the wagons. I was hoping they would against the Rams. It was close there for a little while, though. I know there's a lot of panic. I could feel, could feel the tension in that building in the first quarter, especially after that that interception for the touchdown. Oh boy, that really felt like things were
starting to turn. But fortunately Carolina kind of unraveled here. And speaking of unraveling, Tampa Bay Bucks did not take care of business. All those injuries. Mika Fitzpatrick gout all those things. They go out there to Pittsburgh and they can't get it done. But despite all that on the road, they're still ten point favorites in this game in week seven, forty one is the number. Look pat when you're looking
here at Tampa. This is another team at three and three that I think has really earned this five hundred record. This feels like a smash. It's a double digit game. Are we going to get the smash that we think?
I'm probably just laying off this one. Ten points feels about right. Don't know what to make of the Panthers. Maybe we get a Sam Darnold start next week, Like Sam is due back pretty soon. I don't know what that would do to this number, but it would certainly make for some interesting subplots. Yeah, Tampa has been maybe not quite as disappointing as the Packers, but they've sprung a few leaks themselves, so I don't feel great betting
them as a double digits road favorites. But I can't bet the Panthers either, so I'm probably just gonna walk away from this game.
Panthers fans feel like the kid who gets the crappy toy every time they go to McDonald's and the Happy Meal. No matter what happens, they just look in that box. And like Sam Darnald, Baker, Mayfield, p J. Walker, doesn't matter where everything's just going bad. Matthew Friedman, what do you look at in the box when you look at this game?
I feel if you're going to take a side, it's Panthers or nothing. I feel like maybe only two teams, maybe three teams in the NFL should have the luxury of being double digit favorites, you know, like the Bills, the Chiefs, maybe the Eagles, but definitely not the Bucks, even if they're going against the worst team in the league. But I do think the Panthers are the worst team in the league. There's still divisional opponents, so you know that adds a layer here, and ten points is just so much.
The thing is, we don't even know who the.
Quarterback is going to be for the Panthers, and I don't know if that even impacts the line at all with how bad all of these guys have played.
But I have this at eight and a half.
So that said, like I really don't want to bet on the Panthers, So like I'm not gonna take it. I did bet the under under forty one. I think that's where there's value here because the Buccaneers they are not fully functional even close to it on offense. They do have a very good defense. And again for Panthers, we don't know who their quarterback is going to be, but whoever it is, he's not gonna be helping them
score a lot of points. So forty one feels like a pretty high number for two teams that are really underpeak capacity right now.
Yeah, I think that's a really good piece of advice right now, so look at the under. Another good piece of advice here is to go have some more fun over at Sleeper because they've got that over under game that's going on right now, and you can invite your friends and play against them. And chances are you're playing some leagues on sleep already, So if you haven't already,
check out the over under game right now. You can choose two or more players from any sport you like, and you can go like rushing yards in a football game. You can go points in a basketball game. You can do baseball stuff too. There's all kinds of things you can do. Then you choose the amount of money you want to enter the contest, and if you pick correctly, you can win anywhere from two to twenty times your money.
And it's fun because you can go get involved with your friends and send them contests and go ahead and build all that together. But you can only do it over at Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros. Again, that's Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros and use that promo code Betting Pros when you sign up, because when you do, you'll get the instant deposit match up to one hundred dollars. Again,
you can download the Sleeper app. It's everywhere. It's easy to get and go to Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros. Use a promo code Betting Pros when you sign up today and go play some over under have some fun. Let's see if we can have some fun with this next game on the slate here, because it's the Atlanta Falcons, the David to the Goliath out there. Some of these teams of the NFL, who'd have thought the Atlanta Falcons
they are still six point hundred dogs. Ooh. Going into Cincinnati, Cincinnati is starting to write the ship a little bit. It feels like in recent weeks, after a really rough start to the season, they are six point favorites at home. The numbers forty five and a half. If you like the Falcons to upset, it's US two twenty on the
money line. Now, Matthew Friedman, when you're looking at this one, does this feel like maybe this is actually not a big enough number considering how the Bengals have started to turn things around, or do you think the Falcons have earned the respect here of the six.
I'm actually impressed with the Falcons, and there is still a six and a half out there at FanDuel. I'm a little bit angry at myself because you know, Fitz and I we project these games before before Sunday, and so we already have our preliminary projections, and you know, we can compare them to the look ahead line, and the look ahead on this was seven, and I had this at five point seven five, and like, you know,
one point two five points difference. That's not a massive difference, but when the number is on seven, that's pretty significant. And I wish I would have just bet it then, because I still have it at five point seven to five. You know, the early line was six and a half. Now it's six at most books. I should have just bet it earlier. But given that it's at six now and I have it at five point seven five, I really don't see any value.
Pat how about you d see any value or you kind of where Friedman is?
No, I'm kind of where Friedman is. And Friedman mentioned that we do the early projections like before the previous week's.
Games are played, and.
This week I had a few games where I was pretty much right with where the numbers wound up being, and that was one of the cases here. I had the Bengals as a six and a half point favorite and a forty five point total, So I'm with Friedman like if I had seen it, I didn't even notice that seven point number. Like if I could have gotten it on that key number, I would have loved the Falcons here.
But at six and a half, it just feels right.
The Bengals, I think their fans would tell you, they have played down to the level of their opponents a little bit this season, so it worries me to have them covering kind of a large number against a team that's been as plucky as the Falcons have been this season. I'm definitely not taking Cincinnati. If you pressed me on this one, I'd play Atlanta, But I'm probably not going to bet this. It stays at six and n and a half or goes to six. As Friedman mentioned, it has.
Cooper Rush has taken the Dallas Cowboys about as far as he could probably and it was a heck of an effort, but they came up short against the Eagles. It looks like Dak Prescott is targeting a return this week. In Week seven, the Cowboys stand at four and two. They are at home seven point favorites against the Lions, were coming off a bye, looking their wounds were getting shut out. They should be getting healthy two. I'man Ross and Brown another healthy week ahead of him, hopefully DeAndre
Swift as well. So this number is forty seven and a half. It's plus two forty on the money line if you like the Lions. But Pat, I imagine this is a good opportunity here for Dak Prescott against a pretty weak defense, to go ahead and put some numbers on the board. Is that forty seven and a half an over in your opinion? And should you bet it now?
No?
I actually like the under here, Joe, and I like that more than either side of this game. I just think Dak maybe having a little bit of rost, and maybe the Lions fix some things on defense during their bye week.
I don't know about that.
But and then you know, this Detroit offense going up against Dallas. The Dallas defense has been so impressive this season, you know, Like I know, the Eagles move the ball fairly effectively for much of the Sunday night game this past week, but they were not exactly going up and down the field on Dallas, like this is one of the better we all for sure. So I think it's gonna I'm I'm not liking the over here very much at all, and I'm inclined to go the other.
Way on it.
All right, how about you, Freedman, you're looking at this, do you think it is all doom and gloom and low scoring here is Pat's kind of alluding to. Or do you think maybe the defense creates some turnovers and Detroit doesn't have to do all that much to help this over go.
I'm on Detroit in this spot, and so that you know, leans a little bit more towards the under you know, because I could see a game where Dak Prescott does return but is a little bit rusty. I'm expecting him to return this week, and that was already baked into, believe, baked into the line ahead of time and the look ahead this was minus seven, and I thought, okay, like that means Dak is coming back, And.
The early line released was seven.
It hasn't moved at all, even though there's enthusiasm that Dak is coming back. So I think that was all very much baked into the line here, and that feels pretty aggressive for a quarterback who has a thumb injury. His offensive line still isn't all that great. The offense. I know like they've been playing in such a way to kind of shield Cooper rush, but I still don't know if that offense is going to be as functional as people think it might be when Dak returns. So
seven feels like a lot to me. I have this at five and a half. And maybe I'm too low on the Cowboys. Like the thing is, I still have them power rated as the number four team right now, so I feel like I'm giving them quite a bit of respect.
But I don't know.
Maybe I'm overwaiting to buy. But Detroit coming off of the buy. I think they should be very close to fully healthy with a mon Ross Saint Brown coming back, DeAndre Swift coming back. They've had two weeks to plan for this game.
I don't know. I think Detroit is undervalued in this spot.
All right, let's see if we can find any value with the New York Football Giants, who are five and one. No, you heard me right, five and one New York Football Giants against the Jacksonville Jaguars are two and four. The Jacksonville Jaguars, though still at home, three point favorites regardless of record of these two teams. Forty two and a half is the number if you like the Giants to continue. They're winning ways. Unto Brian Dable, well you can get
it at plus one eighteen. Matthew Friedman, when you're taking a look at this one, I know it's hard to believe in the Giants, But do you believe in the Giants?
Let me see.
I want to make sure I actually see what No, because I like I wrote them up like I'm on this game. I'm just not sure if I actually entered this bet into our tracker, but I bet it. I'm on the Giants. In this spot, like one on the Giants. L Jones is twelve and four is a road underdog. I've actually been like, I haven't been impressed with what they are doing on a play to play basis, but I'm impressed with the way that they like keep games close and then pull it out at the end. And
the Jags like they're fine. They're not as good as they looked the first couple of games, but I don't think that they should be favored in this spot, Like, I think the Giants are the better team, and I don't think the Jags have as much of a home field advantage as we might think based on the three points that they're getting.
I'll take it a step further. I think the Jags are the more talented roster on paper. Yeah, but I don't think they play better football than the New York Giants are playing right now in terms of effort level at times on both sides of the football. I think that's kind of where I kind of where Friedman is, where I'm leading towards the Giants here, Pat, are you also on that train where you're looking at what the
Giants have done so far? It doesn't make sense necessarily when you see the players that they're running out there, but the level of I would say effort that they're giving is there, and they're keeping these games close. And when you win these close games in the NFL, it tends to become something that carries over with confidence and you start to believe that you're going to win all these close games and that's a huge mental advantage.
Yeah, this defense is actually pretty good, and I think it's one of the more underrated defenses in the league. And when you know they get disease Ogulari back, they're going to have him and Leonard Williams and Keveon Thibodau upfront, and that is pretty nasty.
That's going to be a lot to contend with.
And you mentioned it, Joe, like Daniel Jones, like he well, he's not giving the ball away. I mean he used to be reliable, Yeah right, he used to be reliable for like one or two just mind numbingly stupid turnovers in the past and he has not done that and that has helped the Giants stay in these close games. So yeah, like, I'm not rushing to bat this one, but if I were going to bet it, it would definitely be the Giant.
Here's one thing to add into this, though, I slash we might be wrong on this, just based on the early line movement.
You know, it was two two and a half.
It has moved to three at some books, So it is moving against us towards the Jaguars, which I just I think that's wrong.
But I don't know. Maybe it's people just being skeptical of the Giants.
I think they're being skeptical to the Giants because I think you look at the roster and you look at the comparison, and you see the same thing I just laid out, which is there's more talent, there's more offensive explosiveness beside Saquon Barkley. It's hard to get excited about the Giants offense. Let's be honest. But as long as Barkley run the ball and play defense, right at the end of the day, that simple formula football still works in the regular season. It doesn't work necessarily in the
playoffs nowadays in this version of the NFL. But regular season, that stuff travels, you know, especially that travels defense and run the football. Let's go to the Colts. Three to two one. That's the record for the Colts. They are two and a half point underdogs heading to Tennessee or another rematch. Last time these two teams met, Tennessee got the better of Indianapolis in their building. Now we're going to see if they can repay the favor. Forty two and a half is the number if you like the
Colts on the money line plus one twenty two. So Matt Ryan and the Colts kind of pulled themselves up by the Haunches with Dion Jackson, no Jonathan Taylor. They got a w against Jacksonville. Does that momentum gary over here at all for you? Pat Fitzmorris in this game against the Tennessee Titans.
Oh, man, I feel like you should just skip me, Joe, Like I cannot get on the right side of the Colts this year. Like I have no read on what's going over here.
Everybody has that one team. I could see that the Colts being that for a lot of people.
Yeah, I bet.
I bet the Jaguars hard against them yesterday and you know, got it handed to me. I figured they'd really struggle without Jonathan Taylor, without Nahem Hines and more importantly without Shaq Leonard and who else were they missing on defense?
There was some other key oh quitty patty.
Yeah yeah, So man, I just like I thought they would have a really hard time yesterday and they were scrappy.
Like the passing game has not worked for them the past.
Blocking has been terrible, the offensive line's been like shockingly bad. And you know, they somehow managed to run like what seventy four offensive plays yesterday and keep the ball in their hands pretty much the entire game.
It was a really weird game. Script.
I just like nothing the Colts does is kind of the way I think it's going to be this year. Like they've just sort of surprised me at every turn. So I just like, I don't want to touch any game involving Indianapolis.
All right, So free event, should we go full George Castanza here and just go against every good instinct we have and whatever we think the Colts will be doing, we should just bet the opposite here.
Yeah, don't.
I don't know with the Colts. I mean, I have this at one point seventy five, so in theory there's a little bit of value, but not really like the difference between that and the two to two and a half we see in the market as negligible, but I do think there's value on the under. You know, we've got two divisional opponents the numbers forty two, forty two and a half. We got two divisional opponents who like to run the ball, and I don't know, I just
neither offense is very good. So this just neither defense is all that great either. But I think with the divisional opponents who know each other and have a run heavy offensive focus.
Forty two is just a little too high.
Now, if you watched or listened to last week's show, you know that I was picking on the Green Bay Packers a bit and talking about the New York Jets and that number and all that stuff. Now they went out and won outright, But if ever there was a game here for the Packers to maybe get this this air attack of theirs, right, it's the Washington secondary. You would imagine this is an opportunity for Aaron Rodgers to
start throwing the football comfortably again. Especially we have an injury at the quarterback position here with Washington or Wentz is going to be out for a while. I get Heinikey back in here. So the two and four Washington commanders are going to be taking on the Green Bay Packers at home here in Washington, I point underdogs the Packers five point favorites. Forty one and a half is the over under. If you like Washington for another upset,
it's plus one eighty five. But for even this week to week league, right, and sometimes we can't get to invested in what was going on the last week. Yes, it was ugly. Yes it's not what you expected if you had the Packers and you thought that they were going to blow out the Jets and handle their business. They did not. But I almost feel like this five is too small of a number against a team like Washington. Do you agree?
No, I significantly downgraded. Finally, it was about time significantly integrated the past rule.
To do it to you.
Yeah.
And the thing is I had, actually, even with the preliminary projections that we had going into week six, I still thought this week seven number was too high. So and that was when it was seven. So I actually have Washington plus seven in this spot. But I still think there's value at five and a half is a number that you see floating around at at MGM's also at FanDuel. I think there's value at that number. I have this at four point two five, so you know
a little bit of value there. If I had to take a side here, it would be Washington.
All right, Pat fitz Morris, I'm gonna put you on the spot here with the Green Bay Packers, But I don't know. This feels like a good opportunity for a get right game and to kind of write the ship here for the Packers, because if this isn't then the Packers are really headed in a bad direction. The Washington Commanders are not a good football team. You're down to the second string quarterback, That defense is not played well,
especially in the secondary. So what do you think about this number here in this game?
Yeah, I mean the instinct I almost want to spit bet on Washington, But I'm not going to do that, Joe, because I hear what you're saying, and it wouldn't shock me if the Packers kind of pulled things together and blew out Washington, which, as you mentioned, major problems on defense, major problems on offense, a backup quarterback. They should never
have covered that Thursday night game against the Bears. I mean the Bears just throwing an interception at the Washington five yard failing to punch one in on fourth and goal at like the one foot line, because they the Bears decided to run their two hundred and ten pound backup running back who just had like a sixty yard
run and was gassed, rather than David Montgomery. Just like so many ways, the Bears blew that game, and like the Washington franchise right now, just from the top down, not in a good way.
Major problems.
And but you know, the Packers like they can't beat anyone downfield anymore, which is unusual, which means teams are playing safeties up and shutting down the running game.
The defense as holes.
They've got good cornerbacks, but they play zone like ninety percent of the time, which foggles my mind. Like, I'm probably just gonna not touch this game, as I do with a lot of Packers games, because as a Packers fan, I do not like betting on my team. You know, sometimes I'll bet against them, but I can't do that with Washington here, So I'm just gonna walk away and let Friedman be wrong on the Packers yet again.
Yeah, I'm gonna bet it for you. I'm done right now. And again I'm somebody who's taken the shots at the Packers these last few weeks and mostly have been right there. But I think this is a game where you just it's just outclass. And I think this is when you tell those other the young wide receiver group that you got Look, you go out there and you go make
some plays, and you gotta have some confidence. You gotta have the ability to make some mistakes here and not worry about it, because I think you can afford to do that. Against Washington, I feel like that margin of error hasn't been there for them, but it will be there in this game. Speaking of the New York Jets, by the way, who went in and beat the Packers in Green Bay, I still can't believe that really happened. Four and two are the New York Jets. They are
three point underdogs though against the Denver Broncos. We'll see what the Broncos have in store for us tonight. Everyone knows I'm done with the Broncos. I'm over it. I don't care I need to see it anymore. Forty two and a half is the number here if you like the Jets, and maybe I do. At plus one thirty eight heading to Denver. Now, Denver obviously a different environment. You always have to deal with the altitude there. The Jets are a team that offensively, you're not going to
really push the ball down. It's going to be more of a ground and pound kind of attack. The defense has played well. Can they take that formula pafits Morris and can they take it to Denver? And can they take it to the Broncos here in this line or really look ahea.
I think they can with the way the Denver offense has struggled so far, And even though the Jets did very little through the air against Green Bay this past week, it didn't matter because they've got Breece hollwho I think has had more total yards from scrimmage through the first six weeks of the season than any Jets since Curtis Martin, Like, he's been really impressive. He's been kind of a one man offense for them in the last couple of weeks, and a one man offense might be enough against this
Denver offense which has really struggled. So I think the line's about right. I think the total is about right. I don't see really any value on either side here, but the Jets could absolutely win this game if I were going to put a bet down, it would probably be Jets on the money line.
I love it, Jets on the money line. Let's go Friedman, you gotta join hands with us or you see this game differently.
No, I'm I'm on the Broncos and I feel dirty about it. But and so we're doing this before Monday night football, so you know, maybe anything we see in this game could make me hate my bet, you know, come come tomorrow morning. But I have this at Denver minus five. And this is maybe more of a sort of like faith based bet, and you know, sort of a little.
What faith and what at this point because it can't be the coaching, it can't be the quarterback play.
Yes, all of that is fair faith in a couple of things. The defense is pretty good. I think that the Jets offense is still a little bit fraudulent, Like I still haven't seen Zach Wilson go out and really do it against a good defense. And I do think the Broncos have a good defense. So you know, the home field advantage at my high stadium is pretty significant.
I don't know, I'm just not buying the Jets yet.
Maybe maybe after they go in to uh to mile high and get the win outright, then I'll have more respect for them.
I just I kind of don't have a lot of respect for him right now.
Did you think the Green Bay Packers defense was good coming into the year, Because certainly on paper.
I did think it was good. It's that it's not good. It hasn't played well.
But I thought they were a good talented unit.
Yes, But can I just say something, Yeah, sure, I was just gonna say.
I mean, the Jets passing game is one hundred percent fraudulented, but they still have an offense now because of Breece Hall and like Michael Carter is a reasonably good backup. Like they've thrown one touchdown pass Zach Wilson has in the three games since he's been back, and they've won all those games.
Like it's it's that's not sustainable.
I know it's not, but like Breece Hall is sustainable, Like he's generating enough offense for.
The what's sustainable, Sauce Gardner sustainable. And I don't think we talk enough about quitting Williams in the front what he's been doing. And we're not, I mean we're really not. I mean the IDP show, we talked about it, which, by the way, we have the IDP show over in the Fantasy Pro side for those of you who play. But we were talking about how difference maker he is and when you have a shutdown corner, how that allows you to get those cover shacks. It allows you to
do a lot more things. And if you could take away Courtland Sutton in this game from the Denver Broncos. That's been the biggest bugaboo for Russell Wilson is finding other receivers. He has this tunnel vision that I've seen all year for one wide receiver. On one play, his head does not swivel, his head does not move, and it was in full effect against the last week in the Thursday Night football game when you saw kJ Hamler
completely wide open. He never even looked another way. All he saw was Sutton, and all Sutton saw was Stefan Gilmore. And I just don't know when that changes, and until it does, I'm concerned about the Broncos. I'm concerned also about the Las Vegas Raiders. At one and four, they are seven point favorites tier against the Houston Texans, who got their first win and took a week off. They said go take a week off. Everybody, great job. We'll
come back in two weeks and we'll play again. Forty four is the number plus two forty five in the money line for the Houston Texans plus three hundred for the Las Vegas Raids. So the Raiders are heavy favorites here, Friedman. But that just kind of feels talk about dirty, talk about uncomfortable, the Raiders being a heavy favorites period, just full stop. That worries me. Does this line worry you?
I have it at seven and a half, actually, so given that it's sitting at seven, I maybe should be betting it. But as you say, like it's the Raiders, I don't have I don't have a lot of optimism with them. And the thing is like, in theory, the advantage that they should have coming off of the buy is negated because they're going against another team coming off of the bye. So it's like, it's not like, what's the point of the bye week, it's just that they have no edge.
They're having rested for fourteen days.
So I don't know, seven and a half it feels like a little bit too much and I don't have enough faith in it to bet it all.
Right, how about you, Pat? When you look at this game with the Raiders, seven, it's a pretty big number for a team that's one and four and play the way they have, especially on defense.
It is but this is actually the best I've felt about a Raiders defense in a long time. Like, I think this is a fairly respectable if not like good defense, it's at least respectable. And they are versatile on offense, like they have really gotten that running game going with Josh Jacobs lately, and certainly DeVante Adams has added a
new dimension to their passing attack. It's weird, like DeVante's catch rates and yards per target way down, but man, he gives them a big play dimension that they didn't necessarily have before. So, like I think the numbers right, Joe, seven, I think that's exactly right, That's what I had projected
it at. I think there might be a little bit of value in the under here though, because I do have respect for this Raiders defense, and I still think, you know, the Houston offense is a little under man like Damian Pierce has been good for them, but still not much of a passing game there. So I think the total is maybe a point too high.
Yeah, I feel like the Raiders are a team path that are going to get better as the season goes on. It's just how bad are they in the beginning in terms of record, where it doesn't matter, like you gotta take care of business, like you got to be Houston at home. Here's a very simple game here. You got to take take care of your business.
Friedman got me on the Raiders under for their season long win total, and I'm glad they've gotten off to this slow start because like this is a team that's maybe a little better than I thought they were going to be. Freedman pointed out some scheduling obstacles they have, how they are actually you know, set up in kind of a bad way. Maybe the NFL league office still hates Al Davis and doesn't want to give the Raiders any favors with scheduling. But Friedman pointed out that they
have kind of a treacherous path this season. So you know, I'm glad that they've lost some close ones otherwise that that might not be looking that great right now.
I think it was what was it, Friedman eight and eighty. Yeah, So I don't know, they're they're better than I thought they were going to be.
Yeah, they're gonna be dangerous though, if they ever start to put it all together here and there's a lot of new pieces, you know, do you know Devonte Adams who had coached there's some newness there still that still has got to come together. The Los Angeles Chargers three and two home favorites by seven over the Seattle Seahawks, who are five hundred team right now, three and three. The number for this one is fifty two. Seattle on
the money line is plus two to fifty. Now, Pat, if you like this game for offense, are you over this fifty two?
Probably not gonna play the total here, Joe, Okay, I'm more inclined to play Seattle, which you know, they've been so unexpectedly proficient on offense this season, and then we actually saw the defense show up in Week six again get Cardinals, and like, I don't know what to make of the Chargers.
I don't think.
They're as good after that lost to the Chiefs on Thursday night in what we two, Like I thought the Chargers look like a super Bowl caliber team in that game, like they uh, you know, kind of I've had firepower on both ends ever since that game. Things have sort of crumbled for them a little bit, and I just don't have the same feeling I had about them.
Injuries are part of it, but I don't know.
I think a touchdown might be too much in this one.
I kind of like the points with Seattle.
Are you the same mind, Freeman?
Yeah, I've already bet Seattle plus seven. I will say, though, I have this projected at fifty four point seven, which just feels ridiculous and I hate that number, and given the under environment that we've seen, but there's no way I feel like I can bet it.
But that is the projection. I mean, Seattle has allowed.
A ton of points minus whatever we saw yesterday with the Cardinals, but they've allowed a ton of points this year. The Chargers have been more of an over team as well. So I do have this projected with significant value to the over. But I just kind of want to go in and manually change that projection because I'm not buying it.
All right, Let's see, we're buying the San Francisco forty nine Ers. They are three point home underdogs to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs come to town of dropping that tough game to the bills where they had it and lost it at the end. Forty seven is the number on this one. If you like San Francisco to win its plus one thirty five on the money line. How do you see this one an early look at Is there any value at all in your opinion, Freeman on the Chiefs or San Francisco?
Yeah?
I have this projected at two and a half and the you know, in the look ahead it was one and a half. In the early line, it was two and a half, and now it's moved to three. So you know, in theory there's some value on San Francisco here as an underdog like Jimmy Garoppolo as an underdog historically has done well. But it is such an injured San Francisco team right now on both sides of the ball that I don't think you can take them. And if I had to take any side on here, it would be Kansas City.
All right?
How about you? Pat Fitzmorris, do you see it the same way?
No, I'm not taking Kansas City anym. They've hurt me too badly the last two weeks, so I'm not gonna be on them. And I had this one projected as Kansas City is a one point favorite, so I do see some value with the forty nine ers, but as Friedman said, they've got some injury issues, so I'm not going to bet the early line until we get a
little more clarity on some of those injuries. Yeah, and the total seems about right, but man, I don't love Kansas City going on the road and covering the three too, being right on that key number, Like if this moves down, I don't know, maybe you do.
You like San Francisco enough to where you think if it hits three and a half you're betting it.
I would bet them at three and a half.
Yeah, yeah, I don't know if this I'm skeptical this would hit three and a half. But I mean if you like San Francisco at one, I think go ahead and take them at three. You know, like their injury issues aren't going to get worse, Like that's already baked into the line, and maybe they get better, like maybe they get Bosa back this week, maybe they start to get some of their players back, so that might be
something to factor into it. Like if you like San Francisco threes, I mean, as you say, like they're at home they're a good team.
I don't know if it's going to get better than three.
Yeah, Like I don't hold that loss to Atlanta against them that much. I mean it's a West Coast team going out east playing an early start game. We often see those teams kind of stumble like that, So I'm not I don't know, I feel like that is being held against the forty nine ers with this line, and I like, I don't consider that like a horrendous loss for the forty nine ers.
I'm sure their fans do, but you know, we see slip ups like that all the time.
I think also part of what's going into this line is some maybe like kind of newfound respect for the Chiefs because like people were really on the Bills entering that game, and the Chiefs were right there.
Like the Chiefs.
I wouldn't say that like they lost the game versus the Bills winning it, but like they showed like, at least in my opinion, like they showed that. I was like impressed with both of those teams coming out of that win.
I was like also had some more opportunities, Like is say, Mackenzie had a couple key drops in that game, And I think I think the Bills could have the Bills could have been the Bills that people were anticipating. There were a couple of moments where they didn't take advantage of those opportunities. But the Chiefs, to their credit, didn't lay down. They kept fighting. They were in this game. They had the lead in the last couple of minutes of the game. Like everything that you expected from the
Chiefs in their peak was there. But I think what showed is that that big playmaking ability to Tyree Hill not being that offense. It hurts this offense. It hurts their ability in those games against teams like Buffalo that was lacking for sure. I mean, Juju had a couple of moments, but you know, maybe if somebody makes the right tackle. We don't have those moments for Juju. Let's get to a game that I think is terribly difficult. I gotta tell you, I think this is the most
difficult one on the slate. Miami Dolphins theoretically getting to a back. We think they are seven point favorites. Again, it's the Pittsburgh Steelers who just won at home against Tom Brady the Buccaneers. Forty four and a half is a number the Steelers are plus two forty on the money line. Friedman, I don't know what to do with this game. What do you make of this one?
I have Miami as a seven point seventy five favorite, So you know, given that this is at seven, there's you know, a little bit of value there being able to get it on the key number, and I have bet it at seven. I did bet it on the look ahead because I assumed the too would be coming back.
I don't know if there's much of a difference between Kinny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky in terms of like the quarterback situation for the Steelers, to be honest, So I don't know if that factors too much into the number, But I do think that this should be above seven, all right, Pat, Do you see it the same way?
Not at all.
I kind of see it the other way that, Like I've got this at Miami by five. I have a little more respect for Pittsburgh and think, well, there's some ambigie a quarterback, Like we don't know if Kenny Pickett is going to be able to play next week, but like I think this offense is it's got more teeth than maybe it had at the beginning of the season, and you know, part of that is renewed life in the passing game, and we saw Chase Claypole kind of
spring to life last week. Three very good wide receivers, like I think they're capable of scoring with Miami, and Miami's past defense is pretty terrible, quite frankly.
So.
Yeah, like, I don't know, I have too much respect, I think for Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh, and maybe that's a too much respect for a team that hasn't necessarily always earned it this year, but this just feels like too big a number to me, all.
Right, Last one on this late the Chicago Bears a two to four head to New England. New England is seven and a half point favorites at home. We still have quarterback uncertainty in this game as well a lot of games where you don't know exactly who is going to be under for those teams. But regardless, New England seems to be playing very good defense these last few weeks. Great game against the Cleveland Browns, a very good performance in Green Bay a few weeks ago in a shutout
against the Lions. In between, thirty nine and a half is the over under for this one, Pat, what do you think of this number? Seven and a half? It's a big number for New England, not a prolific theoretical offense, but from a defensive standpoint and the lack of offense in the Chicago side. Do you think this is a comfortable number?
Yeah, you've said it, Joe.
It does seem like a big number, especially for a game with what a thirty nine point total, So you know, like, I.
Hate that is what they're telling you one right right.
And it might be that the Chicago offense has certainly struggled.
The weird thing is, Joe, like, I like New England much.
Less at this number if Mac Jones comes back, Like I think, if Mac Jones comes back at seven and a half, I might put a little something on the Bears. If it's Bailey Zappy again, I think I'll probably just walk away because this line seems right. But I'm kind of of anticipating Mac Jones comes back this week, and like, I don't know, I think if Mac Jones does come back,
there's going to be some rust. I think we're going to see yet another solo primetime Ugly Monday or Bears game, Like can we get the Bears off of primetime please, Like this is their third prime time game already, Oh my goodness. Like I know, I know you want to do it early in the season before their record is trash and and you know no one wants to see them and wall or whatever. But I mean, for the love of God, like they're they're losing viewers here, this is bad.
Get the Bears off at primetime?
All right?
How about you here, Friedman? What do you see in this contest?
I have it at six point seventy five, So in theory, you know, under the seven, given that you're you're having the hook here, like there's value there, But I just I don't trust it. I am factoring in mac Jones plane in this number.
I don't know. I think it's Bears or nothing for me, and it's probably nothing.
Airs are nothing, all right, Freed, But let's stick with you. Give me a favorite three look ahead week seven wagers that you want to lock in now before the line start moving?
Okay, if only I said it about it?
Please?
I mean, you know, gee, it's it's very weird because I felt like I had a good read on things last week. I had had a couple of kind of like mediocre, like break even weeks, and then last week was good. I had a seven and three week, and this week I just don't feel as good about it as I did last week. But I you know, I still like Lions at plus seven on the road in Dallas.
I do like the Lions there. I still like the Ravens. Here's the thing I hate.
I kind of hate being like the square like oh, I like the home favorite, you know, with like the Ravens here with a large number. But I still like the Ravens at minus six as home favorites going against a Browns team that I think is is floundering and hasn't had any record of success within division.
So I like that. And then one.
More here I will I will say the under in Tampa Bay Carolina under forty one. I think that is a that is a bet that I probably like the most out of all of the totals because I just don't see either of these teams really putting up a lot of points.
Fitz Morris, what tickles your fancy here in the early look ahead for week seven?
Yeah, so I'm very much with Friedman on the Ravens here, especially coming off the bad loss like the Browns defense has just been absolute trash and I'm kind of surprised this line is what it is. I'm going to take the Ravens. That's a confident four star play for me this week, which is the kiss of death.
Of course.
You know, I'm going to join the Twitter mob with their torches and pitchforks on Thursday nights, and I'm going to take a pitchfork, and I'm going to bet the Saints getting points against an Arizona team that should not be favored against, you know, almost anyone, much less a fairly spectable Saints team. So I'll take the Saints. Theren Man, I'm gonna take this Pittsburgh game. I'm gonna have to take a second look if Friedman is that different from it.
I certainly respect Friedman's acumen on these things, and if we're like two and a half, what two point seventy five points apart, I'm gonna have to take a closer look. But as of now, I kind of like Pittsburgh as a road dog in Miami.
All Right, we'll all re examine our acumens throughout the week and we'll see how lines move, and of course, stay up to date with everything over at bettingpros dot com for all of the latest in terms of the news and notes of what's going on in the betting world. Do I have college football as well? Make sure you subscribe to our YouTube channel as well. Betting Pros is on the YouTube. If you don't know, click that little
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